2025 Predictions

I’m sure Marko is like me in that it’s hard to leave money on the table even when you have more than enough money for several lifetimes. Whenever I need something substantial I first look on marketplace and often time I can find what I’m looking for at half of new price and no taxes, it’s like a fun game, then you feel no guilt when you treat your family on tropical vacation etc…

Still sold it for double what Tesla offered me for trade in.

I seem to remember Marko saying a while ago that he was gonna trade in his S (and get less for it) because he didn’t want to deal with the huge hassle of selling it privately. I guess, at the end of the day, the money-making machine couldn’t bear to leave any money on the table!

I would have thought for sure all realtors would want the extra range….

Practically impossible to drive 300 km+ in a day around Victoria; therefore, whether the car has 400km or 500km of range seems rather irrelevant based on my experiences of driving EVs for the last 10 years and driving more km/year than 98% of the population.

RWD Model Ys also came with the LFP battery which you can charge to 100% every night without impacting long term battery health so the range is a already a lot better than my old Model S which I only charged to 80 to 85%.

You lost me at respected realtor

He’s an IT guy that sold his company and then got into real estate, he was one of the earlier airbnb investors in town..

“Here is a synopsis from a respected real estate agent”

You lost me at respected realtor. When you only have one product on the shelf to sell (homes), it’s always a good time to buy.

Here is a synopsis from a respected real estate in Victoria of how he sees 2025

Groot, thanks for the vid. I liked what he was saying, I think he’s spot on.

Groot , I liked what the young man was saying , he had a solid take . Buy a sfh in the core and u will make money this year imo.

My new Model Y was 45k after fed + provincial rebates.

you must have gotten the RWD one then

We bought a Kona Ultimate for 37K,

Even at 30% off not super cheap. My new Model Y was 45k after fed + provincial rebates.

Tesla did manage to screw me in that they promised via email/text to transfer the lifetime free supercharging from my Model S and then refused to do so afterwards because the Model Y was “discounted” for an end of quarter push. I ended up getting an extra $1,200 off and 6 months free supercharging. Then when I went to sell the Model S no one cared about the lifetime free supercharging as the car had 270,000 km+ on it. Still sold it for double what Tesla offered me for trade in.

Had a friend pick up a Cybertruck two weeks ago and then a week after he picked it up they started including lifetime supercharging with new Cybertruck deliveries. I don’t mind Tesla’s approach of constantly changing pricing/inclusions but it has a way of really pissing people off. Seems like people like the hidden “cash incentive” method of discounting at the dealership level versus transparency in change of MSRP.

I dont think many people who could afford a 50K plus electric vehicle got the Fed rebate anyways. We bought a 1 year old electric car last year which only had 15K mileage on it for about 30% off new price plus no PST.

The best selling EV in Canada was the Model Y and it qualified for the 5k rebate up until a couple of days ago so I would say a lot of people buying a 50k plus EV got the rebate?

There is going to be a lot more people that bought the 55k Model Y versus 180k Taycan.

I hope the rebates are gone forever. The cars are too good to need them. Once the refreshed Model Y hits the market in Canada later this year even without the rebates will likely be the best selling non-pickup vehicle in Canada.

We bought a 1 year old electric car last year which only had 15K mileage on it for about 30% off new price plus no PST.

Not sure what you got but a brand new AWD model Y last year with full incentives comes out to 65k out the door. unlikely you would have gotten a 1 year old AWD Model Y with reasonable kms for 45,500 all in.

James Bay at sub $900k is a rare find

The land is assessed at $955,000 so the house is likely a liability.

Just arguing for argument’s sake at this point. I’ll pass.

Good choice.

Finally, the feds end the $5,000 EV rebate. Well they’re actually “pausing” it, which is hopefully the government code word for “ending” it. At least they show some realization that they can’t just give away money when they have a $52 billion deficit.
Next up should be BC government, which still gives a $3k or $4k EV rebate to some buyers and corporations, despite BC having a $10 billion deficit.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-pauses-electric-vehicle-rebates-worth-up-to-5000-for-buyers-163036035.html

While far from perfect, a 3 bed 2 bath detached in good condition with good features in James Bay at sub $900k is a rare find.

How do you know the house is in good condition? This house has been on the market regularly since 2017 so it’s definitely a known product and got market price for it. This isn’t a new listing that someone snagged on the first day with an unconditional low ball offer.

a 25 bps cut still puts all mortgages in the 4% range. Don’t see how that can move the market, psychology only does so much.

I think the trend is important. If there is another cut end of January more buyers will enter the market quicker versus if there is sentiment out there that BOC might pause the cuts.

Then on the flip side we will have the highest active inventory end of January that we’ve seen in a decade.

@Marko, the single family detached market in Victoria core is looking very sparse – that could be a hotter segment

If something is going to hold in there it is core SFHs.

If no BOC cut end of January I predict a challenging spring market.

a 25 bps cut still puts all mortgages in the 4% range. Don’t see how that can move the market, psychology only does so much.

Looks better than the absolutely eye-popping stats out of the GVR and Fraser Valley last week.

Month Jan Jan
Year 2025 2024
New Unconditional Sales 100 341
New Listings 369 960
Active Listings 2,202 2,140

Last year we had 95 sales as of Jan 15th so sales pace running ahead of last year, but also about 100 active listings more than last year at same time.

If no BOC cut end of January I predict a challenging spring market.

House sold for big loss of 26% plus fees over 2 years.

That house is the one I’m talking about where several flippers would just paint the door a different color and resell it a few months later at a huge profit. No one lives there for long.

Modular homes retain their value over time since they are usually counted the same as regular homes. Similar to traditional homes, modular homes only lose value if they are in poor condition or a bad location.

Many studies have shown that modular homes can appreciate value similarly to traditional homes. The depreciation rate of modular homes has been thought to be a myth, and when correctly maintained, these homes can appreciate at the same rate as regular homes.

There may be still some stigma associated with prefabricated homes, but this perception is changing as technology and design improves. In View Royal there is a circa 1995 subdivision of modular homes that were built to a higher earthquake standard than traditional construction of that time. Unless the buyer is told that they are prefabricated modular homes they can not be distinguished from traditional construction except for the foundation lip and shear wall construction which typical homes of that era did not have. After 30 years they have stood the test of time.

The listings in this subdivision, that I have reviewed, along with their property disclosure statements do not show any abnormal defects due to their type of construction. In almost all cases the fact that they are modular homes is not mentioned in the listings. In fact the opposite is quoted that the subdivision as being “highly sought-after”.

In my opinion, a modular home can be built and designed to be just as appealing as traditional construction. A lot depends on the subdivision as the housing style may be overly redundant. Easily fixed by providing more variety in home styles.

Proof that investing in real estate has its risks with no guarantee of making money.

What happens when the price of Lego blocks does a moonshot?

Arrow

Prefab houses have been available since I have been alive. People don’t like them and the resale value sucks at best. You would probably even have a hard time arranging the financing to purchase the click together Lego block house.

487 Superior St was the house sold for 30% less, just look on housesigma, it’s the 1st home that popped up under sold homes

I would assume it’s 487 Superior that Marko is referring to

4015 Loyola

Only took an 8% haircut and purchase May 2022.

Are realtors still charging 6 and 3 these days?
6% on the first 100k and 3% on the balance?
Or am I way behind?

Everything is negotiable, right now on the buying side you can negotiate 1/3 commission back if buying a 1M plus house with most realtors in town. You can probably do 1/2 back with some desperate ones.

The government will fast track any doctors and nurses that want to come to Canada from the U.S. Their credentials are recognized here and can start work immediately. We do have a health care crisis. They won’t help the housing crisis. I don’t think many of them want to move to China, India, Africa or North Korea. The water shortage in the southwest could last hundreds of years.

Developer’s debt woes worsen as more Metro Vancouver condo projects face insolvency

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/thind-properties-eclipse-cra-millions-1.7427394

Of interest, Greater Victoria has the highest % of residents born in the U.S. among all 41 metro areas in Canada. It is 9,170 people and 2.4% of our population. Roughly 1/40 of our Victorians were born in USA. That’s more than the number of greater Victorians born in Quebec (2.2%). And not that far from the numbers of Victorians born in Manitoba (2.9%)

https://victoriabuzz.com/2022/11/over-half-of-greater-victorias-population-isnt-actually-from-bc-statistics-canada/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

I don’t think they want to restrict immigration of highly skilled and educated U.S. citizens.

…

There are already paths for highly skilled and educated younger U.S. and other citizens. It is called the Federal Skilled Worker Program through the express entry program. We don’t get many of these applications from American citizens due to very high relative taxes/housing costs and much lower wages here in Canada – makes little sense for many professionals despite the gun control and political differences. We get more applicants from the U.S. from foreign workers on US visas who are applying to Canada.

You need the right type sand to make concrete. I’ve heard it’s in short supply here. Maybe Croatia has an abundant supply.

Like the Ukrainian situation, the government can change the rules to meet special circumstances. I don’t think they want to restrict immigration of highly skilled and educated U.S. citizens.

Are realtors still charging 6 and 3 these days?
6% on the first 100k and 3% on the balance?
Or am I way behind?

I think you’ll see a slight increase in Americans moving to Canada to get away from the rotten political culture in the US. But not enough to make a tangible difference in real estate markets.

Too many wildcards out there right now. If Trump goes ahead with blanket tariffs, and it increasingly sounds like he will, and Canada retaliates forcefully, we’ll see another wave of inflation. Presumably the BoC will have to keep rates elevated.

Recession + unemployment + elevated rates doesn’t bode well for any real estate market in Canada.

No they can’t. Since at least 2013, Canada has not accepted any asylum claims from the US.

What about other Countries? Do we accept their asylum claims?

Typically missing middle project in Croatia, a ton of concrete including balcony dividers -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AS1kyIDE80M

It is not easy for Americans to immigrate from the US to Canada. At all. And it just got harder. There is no retiree class visa like there is in many places in the world.

Working age US citizens will pay way more for cost of living than in many areas of the US and gain a way lower salary and pay way more taxes. There are many nice areas of the US that are at low risk of natural disasters. Seattle has many beautiful areas, as does Portland – especially outlying areas. Colorado has become a popular relocation destination for Californians looking for lifestyle, or Texas for lower taxation.

We have Canadian friends in Seattle. They are never coming back. Their healthcare coverage is way better and they can comfortably afford the premiums. Retired now, but their wage was double what they’d get here while working. They live in a nice house in a great area with low crime and now spend winters in Palm Springs.

That said, many Canadians who work in the US do end up back in Canada. Their US funds go further and there is no barrier to return.

max, good stuff , theres an old saying that if u dont have enough debt your not trying hard enough . folks that have little or no debt probaly dont have much in assets. We are entering a period of asset inflation again imo. Someone here said i should walk the talk and i have bought 2 properties in the last 2 years but they are commercial

Aren’t you and thursty banking on rate cuts?

I’m almost done paying this house off. The only reason I still have a mortgage is because I leveraged it for a 100k for the garden suite and some other household related things that needed attention. One more 5 year fixed and I’m done.

Without pulling out graphs and charts, I’d say I paid 5-6% on average for 5 year fixed rates over the course of that time. I might even go variable when I renew, whatever is cheaper. If I can get 3.25-3.50% for a five year fixed come late October…I’m all over it.

If I do get a 5 year fixed in that range, since I’ll have the room, I’m going to leverage another 50k to the principle.
I want a brand new 30 year roof installed, automated driveway gates, and a few other minor things around the house that are kind of pissing me off.

Add to that many of them can work remotely in any country and get paid in U.S. dollars. I

LMAO, RTO is the theme for all workers in 2025 and in the instances you can work remotely there are usually restrictions on what that entails (e.g. reside within a certain distance to the office.). Seriously just give it a rest, you have zero clue on what you are talking.

There is also the 40% exchange rate advantage,

There is also the foreign buyer ban for next two years at least.

Marko- Have you been to Seattle or Portland? I haven’t but hear they are crime cesspools. There is also the 40% exchange rate advantage, healthcare (as bad as it is), the Trump factor that was already in play. Add to that many of them can work remotely in any country and get paid in U.S. dollars. I didn’t say everyone is going to rush to the Island, but a few hundred (out of 12 million) could have enough impact to spur a heated market. Why are you living in Victoria when you can live like a king in rural Croatia?

We met a gay couple about a year ago who were emigrating from their home state to Europe on fears of Trump re-election. No idea the actual risk or their personal situation but it was a bit of an eye-opener.

Rate cuts will continue.

Well, that’s great too. I’m up for renewal October 29/2025.

Rate cuts will continue.

U.S. job growth surged and unemployment fell last month, an unexpected show of strength that may prove costly to homebuyers and businesses who were counting on sharply lower interest rates to lower the cost of buying everything from refrigerators to homes.

If BOC pauses I think spring market could be a challenging one. I was counting on more BOC cuts to counteract all the other headwinds.

Why would people leave the country when they can just move to Seattle or elsewhere in Washington State?

Top realtor from L.A. on CNN stated that he is currently paying $100,000 a year for insurance, and expects to pay $400,000 next year. Californians with mortgages and no insurance might look to leave the country. They can declare refugee status and stay here for years. L.A.’s population is equivalent to the 4 western provinces. Even an exodus of less than 1% would have an impact.
The snowfall comparison was beyond ignorant.

How so short some people’s memories can be.

https://globalnews.ca/news/10641354/victoria-grass-fire-wildfire-risk/

maps?

Yep, from drawing road & block boundaries at 16 to pioneering highway cut-lines at 65, I spent a lot of time with maps. Now that is one part of the economy where there have been a lot of productivity improvements…less time & more accuracy (although those gains are diminished by the inefficiency of the workers building the thing).
I even have some on my walls; the large 1953 Fraser River Watershed showing Sockeye Spawning Areas is my favourite.

I didn’t spend my whole life working with maps to miss that layer and move out of the fire and into a frying pan.

Working with maps?

I took possession of my first investment property in May 1989 (before some of you nitwits were born). Paid $122,000 for a SFH in Cloverdale.. One year mortgage was 12.25%. In June an event on the other side of the world occurred known as the Tiananmen Square massacre and prices spiked for the same house $50,000 and never returned to the $120,000 level. Events around the globe can have a serious impact on real estate prices. California is a 2 day drive away. Again, lots of Canadians live in California. This is the start of an eco-migration. Climate change and a lack of water are huge motivating factors. The people that lost their homes, neighborhoods, schools, places of employment, need a place to live now, not 3 years from now.

I don’t think US citizens will flock to the island

It’s not even related to citizenship, it’s a different market altogether and they are in no way substitutes for each other. It’s like saying people in Victoria will move to Haida Gwaii if there was an earthquake here. Stupid, uninformed and waste of time comments like that really diminishes the value of this forum.

The recent wildfires in California, particularly in Los Angeles, are likely to have a significant impact on the insurance market. The increasing frequency and severity of wildfires, exacerbated by climate change, have already led to higher premiums and reduced coverage options for homeowners in California.

As insurers face more claims and higher costs, they may pass these expenses onto consumers, resulting in even higher premiums. This trend could extend beyond California, affecting global insurance markets as insurers reassess risks and adjust their pricing models to account for the increased likelihood of natural disasters.

It’s a complex situation, but it’s clear that the financial toll of these wildfires will have far-reaching implications for the insurance industry.

Not seeing any relief on material prices and shite like LA is not helping. I’m floored by what stuff is costing when we get it shipped

LMAO, just when I thought you can’t out do yourself and then here you are……

Any thoughts on plenum heaters vs heat pumps? I have an older gas furnace and a relatively new electric plenum heater(inherited from previous owner), and can switch between gas and electric just by pressing a button. But there’s no cooling function as with a heat pump. (We’re too new to the system to have sorted out which mode is cheaper yet.)

Frank , I was thinking the same thing , sales have been on a tear to start the year

Huh? Baseboards do not function as dehumidifiers.

Yup that was a total bs statement, except in the general sense that anytime you heat air you lower the relative humidity. Nothing specifically to do with baseboards.

I end up doing many, many things myself that I don’t even want to do and would far rather pay someone for only because I don’t want to get ripped off. When I find service-providers who bill fairly, I’m their repeat customer indefinitely

I do most of it on my own, I use the contractors when I don’t want the permitting headache. The funny was, this particular trade came from a general contractor acquaintance because my usual go to was unavailable. So, I tested him with some smaller scale work. So, on 3k of work he ended up losing the next 30k to 40k in work from me and some friends that were waiting on a referral for the service that were likely to get about 30k x3 in work done. He did call looking to for the follow on work and got agitated when I said he wasn’t going to be used for it.

90 minutes? Jesus, I can get to downtown Vancouver from my house and be in the middle of a meeting in that time.

By far my fav commuting experience was going to my old workplace in Vancouver by float plane. Walked to the terminal, flew and walked to the office in ~40 mins. Most of my coworkers had longer commutes. Not exactly affordable but super neat. I hope electric VTOL aircraft bring down the cost of island travel but I have doubts.

I knew a general contractor who told me his best year he grossed $3 million and ended up with a $40,000 loss.

I think it is worthwhile to repost this explanation on contractor’s costs.

https://youtu.be/Vr5G1wBaBMg?si=ArIm_WvmjERr9N39

People need to start pushing back on contractor theft more

I find the biggest issue with being overcharged is the labour – if you get a fixed price quote, of course it’s crazy high, and if you pay by the hour, suddenly you get a bill for “labour – 35 hours” for some relatively minor thing, and even with whatever monitoring you did along the way, it’s all kind of a black box.

I end up doing many, many things myself that I don’t even want to do and would far rather pay someone for only because I don’t want to get ripped off.

When I find service-providers who bill fairly, I’m their repeat customer indefinitely.

Baseboard heaters can be expensive to install

Chat GPT is out-to-lunch, baseboards are the cheapest to install.

Baseboard heaters can create dry air

Rarely an issue in Victoria

Bobby K. Baseboards are not without their cons

I burn way more cord wood than I use all the baseboard heaters in my house. I try to aim for when the winds are blowing towards the core with all its bike lanes that you traverse daily probably towing a trailer with three toddlers in the back and two leashed dogs on each handle bar.

I don’t like any heaters that don’t have a fan to distribute the heat. I prefer the infrared quartz heaters. Pick them up second hand for $20-30. They use very little electricity. Use them in conjunction with high efficiency natural gas furnace.

People need to start pushing back on contractor theft more.

If you are getting trades blind and too lazy to get educated then you are asking to get ripped off, people need to expand their social network and have some “insider contacts” :).

speaking of the baseboard discussion –

People need to start pushing back on contractor theft more. It’s not gouging when they try to charge for work or products that was never done or put in, it’s theft. I had it recently where I got $890 materials bills for probably $75 (retail price) worth of ABS. I asked to see the materials list for the job. They weren’t able to provide it, but mystically amended the materials portion of the bill to $90. I don’t mind giving a retail rate on the parts and they pocket the difference with the supplier discount, but x10 above retail is fraud and theft.

Is it a fact that houses always appreciate at a higher rate than condos?

No it isn’t. There are years when houses appreciate at a higher rate but then there are years when condos appreciate at a higher rate than houses.

There are noticeable trends when it comes to appreciation in houses and condos. From 2015 to 2017 houses appreciated more than condos but that was followed by flattish house prices from 2017 to 2019 while condo prices rose. A similar trend happened in 2019 to 2020 as house prices appreciated first, followed by flat house prices for 2021 to 2024. However condo prices increased from 2020 to 2022 while house prices remained flat.

Over the long term, at least the last decade, it has been a see saw back and forth when it comes to appreciation in house and condo prices in the Victoria Core. I suspect this is due to house owners seeing that their homes have increased choose to enter the condo investment market. The trend during the last decade being house prices rise first followed by a rise in condo prices.

Of course 2022 to 2024 had to be different as both house and condo prices have not shown any appreciation in the core. Which is likely due to lackluster investor sentiment. If your house hasn’t increased in value then you are less likely to buy a condominium as a rental in the next year or two. This is where the BC Assessments may play a role. If the assessments had increased substantially then home owners may have begun to consider buying a rental property. If the assessments stayed the same or declined slightly the home owner would be less likely to consider buying a rental property.

Of course the direction in rental rates, employment, interest, and vacancy rates are important too. In Victoria it seems that rental rates are softening and vacancy rates are increasing. But we still have low unemployment relative to most other cities in Canada.

speaking of the baseboard discussion

The repair costs on heat pumps can reach levels that you’d be far better off buying a new heat pump altogether and replacing the refrigeration lines. My house has a 200amp square D electric heating house power panel. The house has baseboard heat in every room of the house. We only use baseboard heat in four rooms that are relatively small. It is however nice to know that I can turn all the baseboard heaters on at any given time if needed.

They are bullet proof.

speaking of the baseboard discussion -> https://www.reddit.com/r/VictoriaBC/comments/1hwc8tm/hvac_repair_rates_in_victoria/

Here’s a useless way for the CRD to spend 33 million dollars on our behalf.

https://www.crd.bc.ca/about/news/article/2025/01/07/crd-announces-agreement-to-purchase-kapoor-lumber-company-lands

I can somewhat understand desire to protect the watershed lands themselves. However these lands are not even within any of our current or future watersheds and are downstream of all the key reservoirs.

33 million dollars public money, 2000 hectares forever removed from productive use and/or public access (this area could instead continue to be used for forestry or it could be tacked onto Sooke Hills Park). And further costs down the road as the Water Board spends millions per year on patrolling and consultant studies on the areas they already control.

I know a little bit about this fiefdom. The folks that work in the watersheds have a pretty pleasant little gig. Spend the day driving your shiny white CRD truck around on old logging roads. Stop occasionally to take some measurements. On a busy day maybe you have to clear some deadfall off the road or paint one of the distinctive red gates with a new coat of red.

Study out of Brazil showed that giving 20-25 year olds housing increased their chance of having children by 32%

The purpose of life is to procreate. That’s why they have a biological clock.

Does it matter still? Everyone agrees that SFH is a better investment than townhouses and condos and core is better than outskirts.

Yes, I agree with you. A house in the core is defiantly a better investment than the outskirts. But not everyone wants to live in the core. For example I have absolutely no desire to live in the core and it has nothing to do with money.

Can you give me a plain language example of what you mean by yield?

Does it matter still? Everyone agrees that SFH is a better investment than townhouses and condos and core is better than outskirts.

“Your not a man until you own some land… Trotsky”

Sounds more like Tolstoy….

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_Much_Land_Does_a_Man_Need%3F

Finally got the prediction form submitted. It wouldn’t take my price predictions. Went through when I eliminated the commas in the numbers. The example shows commas.

No doubt you will get more capital appreciation because more of the value is in the land. Not a given that your total return will be better. That depends on both capital appreciation and yield (rental value relative to price).

Makes no sense. On a primary residence you need to compare overall net ROI on capital invested – not some weird additional yield metric.

Historically houses have appreciated faster than condos. Its a Leo approved fact. https://househuntvictoria.ca/2024/10/21/revisiting-holding/

Your not a man until you own some land… Trotsky

I’ll never understand the North American obsession with SFHs.

An advantage of owning an SFD is you can do a lot of the maintenance yourself.
For example, you can do the regular servicing of your heat pump and save hundreds of dollars every year.

I have a masonry chimney attached to the side of my house that was originally built for two wood burning open fireplaces. One up and one directly below it on the lower level. When we bought the house the previous owner had installed two natural gas inserts with the flues running up the chimney.

Both my Wife and I don’t like the idea of natural gas in the house, so I turned off the gas at the meter and its been sitting like that since 1998. Since I already have power to both fireplaces for the fans, I would like to upgrade to high efficiency electric fireplaces.

Kind of like this…

link? I though these were commercial and very expensive.

All the links on the residential systems are from the US. Advantage Heating has been doing it locally. So, I am going to get quoted and see where the cost lands and if it’s worth it.

gas absorption heat pump

link? I though these were commercial and very expensive.

On heating side. Changing out the oil furnace this spring on the reno project. Looks like the gas absorption heat pump might be taking the lead as an option. It can do the heat, ac, and hot water. Apparently, it can also run as a generator during power outages. Also, I really don’t mind that it runs all the combustion outside the house.

Why? Privacy, control of environment ie. no common spaces, noise, ability to add value, ability to house family when needed in a suite, pets, workshop access, private outdoor space with garden, no strata, extended family gatherings, and a greater rate of leveraged appreciation that is tax free.

No doubt whatsoever, SFH is a better long term investment financially.

I’ve never had noise issues living in condos but I’ve never lived in a wood-framed either. As far as common spaces I use it to my advantage. We have an awesome gym in my building no one uses so I essentially have a large private gym I pay 1/133th for.

Thing is most people are commuting to their 3,500 sq/ft lot in Royal Bay/Westhills/Sooke/etc.

At that point you might as well just get a townhouse….. But then again that’s what lot of lots in Vancouver are around and they are still in demand so….

Just another political ploy or am I missing something? Maybe this works with homes charging electric vehicles?

That’s how they even it out, charge more for peak hours and reduce for the lowest usage hours. I don’t think it’s worth it unless you got 2 heavily used EVs.

never understand the North American obsession with SFHs

I’d prefer larger concrete built condo in the core to a house that required a commute. However, def prefer a house in the core to a condo as long as I’m able bodied.

Why? Privacy, control of environment ie. no common spaces, noise, ability to add value, ability to house family when needed in a suite, pets, workshop access, private outdoor space with garden, no strata, extended family gatherings, and a greater rate of leveraged appreciation that is tax free.

I’ll never understand the North American obsession with SFHs.

Not sure my metal lathe, CNC plasma cutter etc. would go over very well in a condo. Time spent in the garden would also be very different. Everybody has different interests. Condo lifestyle would suit me about half time. The other half not at all. FWIW, small high density SFH lots would not suit me either. Each to their own.

too much hate for baseboards especially in newer homes that are relatively well insulated

with step 5 code probably be good enough to just push down your toaster once in a while (on top of the waste heat from your always on electronics)

As I’ve been saying for 15+ yrs on HHV, too much hate for baseboards especially in newer homes that are relatively well insulated. I go into houses with 40-50 year old baseboards and they still work. I find a lot of information put out in relation to efficency of heating systems does not include maintenance/realistic lifespan/availablity of parts of such systems in 15 to 30 years, etc.

If I was to service the air to water heatpump in my condo as per manufacturers recommendation with South Island Mechanical, RedBlue, Batallion or similar company the annual service cost would exceed my total yearly hydro bill (and most likely would exceed my total yearly hydro bill if I had baseboards instead).

Might be true VicRE, but I’ve got 10+ staff at my company who come from Sooke and up the Malahat. Some are 45 mins, others are near 90 mins if it’s a “bad” day.

Such as?

4 days a week in the office for provincial employees.

As we move back to in-office and away from WFH, this will put MORE pressure on core properties as many will get sick of their 46-90 min commutes from the satellite communities, in my opinion. Nothing is a bigger quality of life upgrade than living less then 15-20 mins walk, drive, or bike from work and essentials. It annoys me in the Westshore at the amount of congestion and you-must-drive everywhere. Younger people are willing to lower their vehicle costs and cortisol costs (lol) to be closer to amenities without stress. So, more price pressure on core properties if WFH is ending and, coupled with the fact that there might be lower net migration to Victoria, you might see much less appreciation, or only flat prices in Langford, Sooke etc.

Such as?

The Feds moved to 3 days in office last September and will likely be going to 4 this upcoming September. A change in government will likely see it back to 5 in September this year. As for the province, they have still been hiring folks on the basis they are full time remote. So, I imagine provincial RTO will be an al a carte approach depending on the job requirements and not blanket like the feds.

4,000′ home with 2 bd suite and our bill was typically $200-$250 / month.

Is that including your tenants? That sounds pretty cheap.

For 2025…

Sales: 6700

Single Family Median (Q4): $1185000

Condo Median (Q4): $525000

December Inventory: 2500

Bank of Canada Rate: 3.0%

We used an average of 15 kWh per day over the last 30 days as the gas fireplace heats the house adequately and this keeps us out of tier 2.

Ha I am at close to 100kwh/day. Wife does not feel safe with gas so that’s a no go for me. Contemplating heat pump but baseboard is so nice and flexible.

For the same amount of energy, burning wood emits more CO2 than coal.

There’s other factors at play. I’m not sure why wood would be compared to coal without mentioning that coal is non-renewable while wood is renewable. The only CO2 emitted was absorbed while the tree grew. There’s also some amount of forestry that happens for wild fire mitigation. Prescribed burning can happen in wood stoves and it’s a win-win. Same goes for trees that died naturally (to some extent) or had to come down for property protection.

If everyone was heating their homes with wood, it would be disastrous for particulate emissions and couldn’t be done sustainably. That isn’t the case. Pointing the environmental shame finger at wood burners is barking up the wrong tree as long as crude oil is around. Pun intended.

The prediction form won’t take my price predictions. Took the sales, inventory and bank rate. Comes up “Must be above 0.”

https://househuntvictoria.ca/2025/01/06/2025-predictions/#comment-124023

I use about 38 kWh per day on average, even with my gas fireplace in use. However, the house could benefit from new windows and upgraded insulation, and since I’m located on the waterfront in a very windy area, my energy usage is probably higher than it should be.

I’m still considering whether to install a heat pump during renovations. I appreciate the low maintenance of the baseboard heaters, and I mainly want the heat pump for air conditioning without having to use ugly/bulky window or portable ACs, so it might not be worth the investment.

Wood burning which is already highly regulated should be banned altogeather for health reasons for the general population and also for the homeowners own health.

From ChatGPT

Wood burning is bad for the environment:
Air pollution
Wood burning releases many pollutants into the air, including:
Fine particulate matter (PM2.5)
Volatile organic compounds (VOCs)
Carbon monoxide (CO)
Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)
Nitrogen oxides (NO2)
Dioxins and furans
Chlorinated dioxins
Climate change
Wood burning releases carbon dioxide (CO2), a greenhouse gas that contributes to climate change. For the same amount of energy, burning wood emits more CO2 than coal.
Forest destruction
Cutting down trees to burn for energy destroys forests, damages ecosystems, and leads to biodiversity loss. Forests are important in the fight against climate change because they absorb CO2.
Indoor air pollution

Wood burning releases particle pollution into homes, which can have a negative impact on people’s health. A 2020 study found that during the time wood burners were lit, the level of harmful particles in homes was three times higher than when stoves were not being used.

Also heat pumps only work to an outside temperature of 5+ C

Not true. Lots of heat pumps are more efficient than baseboard at the coldest temperatures we see here (-10).

I have a Sanden CO2 hot water heat pump

Pretty hard to make a $ use case when only used for domestic hot water. They support being a combi heat source up to 12k btu. I just looked up my old place and the Sanden gen3 used 1359kWh for the entire year (domestic HW and whole home heat).

Air-to-water heat pumps are ramping up in North America (been in Europe for a while), and there are some good looking units out there. Downside is lack of easy cooling. I put an Arctic 60k btu unit in for the inlaws and it seems ok.

It’s pretty hard to argue against baseboards – they’re cheap, reliable, low-ish embodied energy and renewable. I’m leaning towards decent mini-splits for the new place. Maybe one per floor. I think cooling will be a thing here in the next 10-20 years.

Looks like the Capital Gains Tax 50% to 66% is still somewhat up in the air:
https://financialpost.com/personal-finance/taxes/prorogation-kills-capital-gains-tax-changes

Hoping for no change and pretty sure PP was in that camp as well.

Rarely burn more than half a cord of wood.

We burn 3 cords of Douglas fir per year. We head north of Lantzville and hit a Rez. I tow a 14′ trailer and have a truck box of 4’x 8′. They load it with a front end loader. 3 cords for $550 cash and carry, I’m in and out of there in less than 10 minuets. Its not seasoned or ready to burn, but its split and good to go. I just dry dry it out in my garage for the following burning season.

who’s on baseboard heating here with SFH? How many kwh do you use on average per day?

We are. We also have the biggest wood stove you’re allowed right in the center of the house. It was supplied and installed by pacific energy, WETT compliant. I took out a permit and it was inspected by both a Langford fire Marshall and a Langford Building Inspector. This was a requirement for my house insurance.

From my reading baseboard wins over heat pumps. They never have to be replaced or serviced (ever). They just always work. We use them in the two kids rooms and the baths. I don’t exactly know how many kwh we use, but its reasonable. I spend around $900 per year to heat a 2600 sq/ft house per season with a combination of both fir cord wood and baseboard heat. Add on another $300 per year for the water heater, dryer, and the range. add on another $300-$400 in overruns for a family of four. I’d say I pay around $1500-$1800 to energize the house for a year.

Marko did a write up on how baseboard heat compared to a heat pump over the long term. Baseboards were suggested due to the annual cost of servicing the heat pump, cost to operate the heat pump, and the cost of the heat pump replacement in ten years (when there will be no more grants available). Also heat pumps only work to an outside temperature of 5+ C, baseboard heaters work regardless of the outside temperature.

who’s on baseboard heating here with SFH? How many kwh do you use on average per day?

specifically on the Westshore will be facing fairly large increases in mortgage payments.

Why the westshore? Do those owners typically have bigger mortgage balances? If someone bought around a million dollar home and put 20% down then they are carrying ~850k mortgage which is like around 4k a month given 4% fixed rates at 30 year amort. They would have been stress tested at more than that so it should be fine unless they did something stupid afterwards.

I believe some of the 4 million Canadian citizens living in other countries will return to escape the conflicts around the world.

Well that would be more than welcome with open arms, hopefully some are doctors.

Frank, a good take on it , there is a ton of Canadians with huge wealth and sfh home prices in Vic really aren’t that expensive. Sell your place in Toronto or Van and u have more than enough to come live in oak bay

Immigration levels will be cut but I believe some of the 4 million Canadian citizens living in other countries will return to escape the conflicts around the world. That would bode well for Canada as many of them are highly educated. With the new Trump administration returning, more Americans will also look north. Especially Californians targeting B.C. So I wouldn’t expect B.C. prices to go down, probably tick up 5-10%. It’s only getting more expensive to build and solid existing homes with a fair sized lot will be in high demand. I don’t think the economy will have much effect as you have to be very well off to even consider moving to B.C. In the last 15 years the wealthy enjoyed a doubling or tripling of their net worth.

One thing I’ll add is it is important to keep an open mind as information comes in during the course of the year.

My 2024 predictions were very accurate with the exception of the BoC @ 4.5%; however, as the data starting coming in spring of 2024 I had made my mind up that I was going variable on my mortgage as based on what I was seeing in the spring I figured large BoC cuts were coming.