Rental market data looks encouraging for tenants
CMHC dropped their annual rental market report last week, and though headlines focused on the fact that Victoria is the second most expensive city in Canada (overtaking Toronto), the data for Victoria is actually very encouraging. As we’ve discussed here for some time, the rental market in Victoria has been weakening, with more landlords having to offer incentives or drop asking rents to find tenants. Though data quality is generally not great, the data on monthly average asking rents from Rentals.ca peaked in August and has been declining since then.
Note: CMHC vacant unit rent 1 beds in Oct 2024 is $2044
Now the CMHC report shows that vacancy rate jumped to 2.6% in Oct 2024, up from 1.6% this time last year, and higher than it’s been in a decade.
We are still below what is normally considered the minimum healthy rental vacancy rate of 3% where rents stop outpacing inflation, but it’s a lot better than the 1% that we’ve been hovering around for the past few years. So why are rents still going up?
- Vacancy rate is still below 3%. As shown in the chart above, though vacancy rates are up and we should expect rents to increase much more slowly going forward, generally we should expect rents to continue increasing until the vacancy rate is above 3%. Some market segments are surely already there (1 bed units on the westshore for example), but overall we are still at a vacancy rate correlated with increasing rents. The last time we actually saw average rents decline was 1998, and that was after several years of vacancy rates near 4%.
- CMHC headline figures are the average rent paid by all renters. Many of those tenants have been in their units for years and are paying far below market rents due to rent control. Generally as long as those asking rents are substantially higher than the average rents being paid, the average of all units will continue to increase due to natural turnover (people move and pay higher rent in their new place). Even when asking rents start falling, average paid rents may still increase for some time. However closing this gap helps reduce stress on existing tenants (as the moving penalty falls) and reduces the economic incentive to evict for landlords. The gap in Victoria is a little smaller than last year, but still nearly $500.
- Vacancy rates affect rents on a lag. Though higher vacancy rates make searching for a rental easier immediately and give tenants negotiating power, it takes time to filter through to existing rents. That’s especially true with a large gap between the rents of vacant vs occupied units.
- New units tend to rent at a premium. Because we’ve been getting such a flood of new units in recent years, that will change the age mix of the overall rental stock and thus average rents are skewed upwards as the stock becomes newer on average. Average rents by unit age are shown below. However building those new expensive rents still helps the rental market as a whole via the mechanism of filtering. You can read about that in CMHC’s report on filtering, but basically those who can afford a new rental will free up an older more affordable rental or – if they’re a new household – avoid competing for the existing stock. That brings rents lower than if the unit had not been built, an effect which has been confirmed by studies in various markets around the world.
The good news is that this trend should continue for a couple years at least. Though starts have fallen from peak, we still started 2500 new rental apartment units in the last 12 months, and those will be completing in 2025 and 2026. After that, the rental supply picture looks a little shaky though. CMHC has been carrying this market with low cost financing and they’re getting cold feet about how much exposure they have. In addition a new stricter building code comes into effect in 2025 that has some substantial cost increases from higher standards for seismic resistance and accessibility. Those changes could substantially cut starts if they aren’t offset elsewhere.
Rental completions have been ramping up for years, but they were barely enough to keep up with higher than usual population growth. With that flow reversing and 2025/2026 set to have slower than normal growth, I would not be surprised if we land between 3 and 4% vacancy by this time next year. Asking rents are sticky on the way down with landlords much preferring to offer free rent or other perks instead of locking themselves in to a lower rental rate, but either way it should substantially increase options for tenants.
On the resale side, stagnant or falling rents and abundant secure purpose built units would reduce the appetite for investor owned-condos, while a more comfortable rental market reduces the pressure on renters to buy. Those latter two factors are likely minor overall for the condo market (will cut supply to some extent as well as demand), but overall I suspect it’s a small drag on the market, and one of the factors why I don’t believe we are on the cusp of a big price jump for condos despite the increased market activity we’ve seen this fall.
Also the weekly numbers:
| December 2024 |
Dec
2023
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Sales | 118 | 232 | 347 | 329 | |
| New Listings | 163 | 311 | 383 | 383 | |
| Active Listings | 2665 | 2563 | 2408 | 2132 | |
| Sales to New Listings | 72% | 75% | 91% | 86% | |
| Sales YoY Change | +11% | +20% | +39% | +3% | |
| New Lists YoY Change | +7% | +17% | +14% | +6% | |
| Inventory YoY Change | +9% | +10% | +10% | +26% | |
| Months of Inventory | 6.5 | ||||
Year over year change in activity jumps around quite a bit in low sales months, but December sales will end with a good outperformance over last year. New lists are also healthy, but overall the market remains tighter than a year ago.
New post https://househuntvictoria.ca/2025/01/06/2025-predictions/
Yes please. If even half the money that chased returns from RE investment this century had gone into innovation, research, and manufacturing, our economy would be broader & more resilient and our country’s prospects would be brighter.
Trudeau is getting the boot this week and the election will be in March.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-trudeau-expected-to-announce-resignation-before-national-caucus/
“Trudeau expected to announce exit as party leader before national caucus meeting Wednesday
Justin Trudeau is expected to announce as early as Monday that he will resign as Liberal Party Leader, three sources said Sunday, as the Prime Minister faces a caucus revolt and dismal public opinion polls that show his party will likely be swept out of power by Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives.“
Groot, your apology for the last decade of failed liberal policies seems surprising coming from a “fiscal conservative”.
This country needs a government that will end the disastrously high population growth and inflationary deficit spending that this government has made its signature.
Enough with this fatalism.
I don’t doubt that future governments have the ability to reduce the importance of housing to our economy.
We have an abundance of natural resources, and one of the most highly educated workforces in the world as well as direct exposure and close ties to a massive import economy to the south. With the correct economic approach we absolutely could shift our economy away from housing and toward a more productive economic program that wouldn’t leave us with 8 years of flat GDP per capita growth.
We need new leadership, and frankly I don’t care so much who is running the ship, or which party they belong to, so long as they enact a broadly different economic policy program than we’ve seen over the past decade from Trudeau.
I have little doubt that JT will resign giving enough time for a new leader to be determined for the October election. That would be the worst scenario for PP as most of PPs attacks have been directly towards JT.
Good for Canadians as we may have an election on policies rather than personalities.
Erin O’Toole would have been a more well-rounded candidate, too bad the party kicked him out for being a centrist (a Progressive Conservative?).
As it is, we face another wild pendulum swing in the government. As Groot says, always voting against a party rather than voting for a party’s policy ideas.
I used to live near the CPR / VIA mainline where there was a sign that sums up our voting tendencies: Governing parties are like diapers and should be changed often, and for the same reason.
“Canada has become one giant real estate company”. Thats just music to my ears and it should be. Immigration and real estate is what keeps the lights on , no use swimming against the tide
Was Trudeau elected on his glowing resume? Definitely not, people just wanted a change.
I’ve heard that a lot of Canadians who have lived here all their lives are having a hard time finding work due to imposed hiring policies. The fallacy that we “need” more people is B.S. being fed to the public. We need to better educate the people that are here. Many of them are morons.
Max all you are doing is moving the discussion away from PP and back onto JT.
Let’s for once stay on the topic. Who the hell is Pierre Poilievre? And what are his policies? Most Canadians don’t know. When he is elected PM, it will be too late to find out. And I have little doubt he will be Canada’s next PM because people are not voting for him but voting against Trudeau. As every time the topic of PP is brought up the narrative is shifted to Trudeau.
There is no great ground swell of support for PP, what we will be electing is a PM by default. I’ll likely not vote for JT but there is no way in hell that PP has yet earned my vote. I will tell you that his refusal to obtain a security clearance is a big road block to me.
Taking a breather on immigration should ease the housing problem. But it is absolutely necessary for the long term health of our economy to resume immigration to those levels as soon as possible.
The size of all levels of government have been bloating but it has put pay checks into the hands of Canadians rather than unemployment checks.
Being a fiscal conservative I don’t like an expanding government but I also understand that these policies have kept Canada from falling into a recession or possibly a depression. It’s necessary to keep money flowing through out the local economy to avert a credit crunch where the banks chose not to lend and instead purchase bonds that are safer for the bank’s stakeholders.
Canada has become one giant real estate company and I don’t know how any government can ween Canadians off this teat. Canadians now owe more in mortgages than the entire national GDP which is one of the highest ratios of all the countries in the world.
And JT has? On the global stage JT is nothing more than an embarrassment to Canada. PP has my vote come election time.
Pierre Poilievre has never lived in the real world. He is the very career politician that you have shown to hate. He needs to obtain his security clearance and divulge his business ventures.
Now we’re talking. Also a big time thinning of the government on all levels that at the very least needs to be chopped in half.
It’s going to take a long time to convince buisness to invest in this country again. Stability and trust are gone. Too many obstacles to success. Especially large projects. I wouldn’t risk my money here.
I do think that voters are finally coming back around to the understanding that businesses that add valve (eg. NOT Amazon distribution centers) is what drives a country’s prosperity. Creates wealth, good jobs and taxes to pay for the things we want.
The conservatives might actually attempt to balance the budget and not spend taxpayers money like a drunken sailor in a whorehouse. Poilievre came from a humble upbringing, Trudeau thinks he’s royalty. Carbon tax elimination will do more for Canadians than the crumbs we have been tossed to keep us beholden. Reducing immigration to realistic levels will reduce the stress on everything. What Canadians want is someone who lives in the real world.
Only perk they have is pension and the ability to do nothing and not get fired if in the union.
Frank the only thing that we are fairly sure of is that Pierre Poilievre will solely be campaigning on axing the carbon tax. That signals, to me, that all of the policies put in place by the Liberals will not be changed by a Conservative government.
All a conservative or NDP government will change is the drapes at either Rideau Cottage or 24 Sussex. And we should also consider that the Bloc may form the next opposition party.
I get it Frank – you don’t like Trudeau. But the next PM isn’t going to win on policy but win by default. Essentially there is only one person running for PM in the next election and that is JT. The rest will win by default. All that Poilievre has to do to coast to an easy win is keep his mouth shut.
But that boys ego won’t let him do it. I doubt that anyone has ever accused PP of being intelligent he has always been a water boy for the Conservative Party. He either needs better speech writers or learn to stay on script because once he leaves the script he starts losing votes.
https://youtu.be/Z9t_KDGqOmE?si=JdzVrLoTt9JtDMEW
Pay might not be great but for what actual work they do, it’s plenty. Especially when you factor in the perks, expense accounts, benefits and pension. I wouldn’t feel too sorry for them.
Zero common sense at all government levels, you get what you pay for though. Shit pay attracts shit incompetent people.
That’s what encourages people to participate in the underground economy. Deal in cash, don’t declare income made on the side, etc.. With all the opportunities to make money selling items online (for cash) people feel justified to pocket the money. Tradesmen working for cash, drug dealers, want to “put it to the man.” We see the waste, like $6000 a night hotels to go to a funeral, expensive dining, living like royalty, and it makes us sick. Why would Trudeau step down? He lives like a king with his billionaire lifestyle. When he gets back to Ottawa I think he’s going to find his belongings out on the curb. A lot of people think his policies have created a great deal of harm to everyday citizens who are struggling.
Car taxation in BC much like everything else the government touches is complete idiocy on at least 10 different points. They’ve done so much stupid crap over the years, but people forget and don’t pay attention. One of many examples, used private car transactions use to have zero GST tax (only 7% PST) but when they brought in the HST it went to 12% and when GST was abolished they just raised the PST to 12% on used cars instead of returning it to 7%.
So many stupid real life examples I see on a regular basis.
I sold a house in Oak Bay this summer and I come pick up the lockbox two days prior to completion and the owner is standing in the driveway with his niece so I start chatting with them and turns out the niece has to pay $300 tax for the Honda Civic with 240,000 km her uncle, the owner, is gifting to her for free. I thought I was being smart so I suggested the owner gift it to his sister and then the sister gifts it to her daughter (the niece), but turns out there is some sort of 1 year in-between gifts policy ICBC has.
Two weeks later a friend texts me if I can recommend an electrician to come install an EV charger in his garage in Oak Bay. I text him back an electrician and ask him what he bought….used $104,000 Porsche Taycan. Zero PST paid as it is a used EV. Third car in the family, but that is okay they are saving the environment. Even he was laughing about the PST holiday on his “used EV.”
and government gave me $8,000 in rebates on my Model Y I would have bought regardless of rebates or not. How about don’t give me any BS rebates and lower by income taxes.
Luxury tax starting at 55k is the biggest joke ever. How can eby sit there with a straight face and tell a a family buying a Toyota Sienna that they need to pay luxury tax??
Thursty’s real estate sales lesson video:
https://youtu.be/vCGSlZkY9nM?feature=shared
2025 should be the start of a year filled with happiness and prosperity. Canadians should be very thankful for our good fortune. Now get out there and buy a house
Rodger , not seeing it. Canada is in a sweet spot economically and a lil tweak here and there and we are off to the races . Young folks today have never had it so good with jaw dropping incomes . We are not in a housing crises as so many believe and houses are still very affordable for a lot of young families.
I am not so optimistic on Canada in the short term. It takes many years or decades to implement a new industrial policy. Building a power plant or refinery takes a minimum 4-6 years AFTER it is approved. Getting an approval will take many years. No big company would take such risks in the current environment. A complete change in the mindset of politicians, bureaucrats, companies, and citizens is necessary. It is going to take a decade for Canada to climb out of the hole we are stuck in.
The clown in DC is not going to help. Every day he makes random announcements about buying Greenland, taking over Panama Canal, or annexing Canada. One has to wonder how many announcements and executive orders he will make in the first 90 days. Any large company CEO will not expand capacity without a stable policy environment in DC.
As for tariffs, Canada will probably end up with something like 10% after a long period of negotiations. All exporters will take a big hit on their revenues and income and may end up laying off a significant portion of their workforce.
Try “Welcome to Langford’s Parcel Information Map”
The study you quoted refers only to USA export of shale gas, which is evident in the title of the article “The Greenhouse Gas Footprint of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Exported from the United States”. It is not applicable to LNG in general or Canadian LNG projects in particular.
https://www.bcg.com/publications/2024/seizing-canadian-liquified-natural-gas-opportunity
“Canadian LNG is 25% less carbon intensive than the global LNG average – meaning for every three ton of carbon emitted in Canada, four tons are saved elsewhere. Canada now has an opportunity to capture this economic opportunity, while also delivering considerable environmental benefits. However, industry and governments need to move quickly to ensure that Canada doesn’t miss out again.”
This is the Feds take on robots…
https://horizons.service.canada.ca/en/2020/02/11/exploring-biodigital-convergence/index.shtml
Gives me six options, and none of them do anything.
-Home.
-Gallery.
-Map.
-Scene.
-Group.
-Sign In. And it wont let me sign in.
langford.maps.arcgis.com
Welcome to Langford’s Parcel Information Map
Click on a parcel to find out more information about the property
xxx xxxx xxxx xx
R2 One- and Two-Family Residential 850 sq m
Property Value $1,080,000.00
AI employed by major retailers still can’t resolve the most basic customer service request, so colour me highly skeptical that any of these grand prophesies will very soon come to pass.
Liquefied natural gas leaves a carbon footprint that is 33% worse than coal, when processing and shipping are taken into account, according to a new Cornell study.
https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2024/10/liquefied-natural-gas-carbon-footprint-worse-coal
I don’t know why we are even contemplating autonomous driving vehicles. They rely on the lines on the roads to be clearly painted. This does not exist in a lot of cities and are covered in snow during the winter. Apple abandoned its autonomous driving project laying off 2000 people. I prefer not to rely on automation in my life. Self checkouts are as far as I’m willing to participate. Keep the robots on the assembly lines. You know what can happen if they are let loose, world domination.
The “lock-up” stage in house construction is when the home’s exterior is fully secured, and it’s protected from the elements and potential intruders. In other words, you can “lock up” the house.
the installation of the external walls, roof, windows, and doors.
Ensuring all exterior cladding and insulation are in place.
securing access from the garage and any exterior access points.
At that point the home construction is about 50 per cent completed.
What you probably meant was the framing stage where the house is still open to the elements. Depending on the size, style of the home, and number of workers it could be done in 10 working days.
https://youtu.be/AzvNJxDCNHM?si=9VbcVQQhkgPRzR0_
And now the modular home in about a day
https://youtu.be/ljCG7lZKMK0?si=lPgvmtHlUJ5M0irb
i had an interesting conversation with a relative who is high up in Silicon Valley who came to stay with us over the holidays. He says the next big thing is personal robots within 5 years. Also AI will constrained by energy capacity, also mass unemployment coming in jobs that can be replaced by AI and robots and we should be concerned about civil unrest that will result. Musk discussing the idea of providing a basic income for mass deplaced workers, to reduce unrest. Big gaps openning between rich and poor.
Marko, I agree the Canadian economy is screwed and its going to take a few years before it turns around. There will of course be layoffs in the federal goverenment and perhaps in the provoncial government and unemployment will continue to rise.
It takes ten days to frame a typical house off the foundation to lock up. $75 per/hr for the lead guy, $30 per/hr each for two apprentices $10,800. They would have to be some pretty cheap robots. I have never used a hand saw in my entire life and I’m 51 years old. The trades are also expected to be completely cordless, meaning the only power required is for the rapid charger charging their batteries.
AI robotics will play a larger role in house construction in the future just as the circular saw replaced the handsaw. But at this time the cost to set up a manufacturing plant is outrageous and you still have a supply chain problem. Pushing one house out of the door at a time that has to be delivered. That creates a bottleneck.
If the plants were smaller, portable, plentiful, and could be brought to a condominium site or medium sized residential subdivision and set up there then that would be a game changer. Instead of one large plant then there would be dozens of smaller plants at different locations manufacturing a better product at a lower price that can be installed the day it was made. If you have ever had a house built you would have noticed that there might not be anyone working on your home for a week. They have been pulled off the job to work on another home as they are waiting for say the trusses to be delivered.
Until then we are stuck with the inefficiencies of building labor intensive stick frame houses as we can build more of them at different locations. The future use of AI robotics has a potential to lower labor and overhead costs just as the circular saw did.
https://youtu.be/O3al52UWoc0?si=C2dMFxQtH-dDjVSz
or this
https://youtu.be/rZiVyJL5PG8?si=7coZx7fiO4MuqOa2
I’m optimistic that…. We will have a federal election by the summer, and a new majority Conservative government. This will give a big boost to the Canada economy, both through improved consumer sentiment and international view that Canada is “open for business”.
Canada has the resources to be the richest country in the world (# 4 oil reserves, #7 gas reserves, # 1 uranium, #7 lithium) , And this is amplified by our well educated workforce and access to the USA. Exporting our LNG lowers global carbon use as it displaces foreign coal plants.
We just need a pro-business, pro-growth government to see this realized. This means more cranes, power stations, data centers, pipelines and LNG terminals. With Canada powering the increasing energy needs for North America and the world.
Buckle up Canada! Help is on the way!
People are nuts out there these days. I was at Thrifty’s and I grabbed a bundle of asparagus and this lady starts flipping out on me, aggressively, in fact I felt victimized. She wanted that bundle of asparagus but she was too short to reach it. She was as wide as she was tall, she was a perfect circle. If she had no arms, legs or head you could roll her like a ball.
Most economists are predicting down to 2.5% BoC overnight lending rate by the end of the year, I am going out on a limb and predicting down to 2.0%. My gut feel is economy is more screwed than people think. I went variable on my mortgage renewal last year when no one was touching variable mortgages based on my personal thoughts about the economy and it’s paid off so far, probably mostly luck. That being said, I did talk about refinancing my personal mortgage in this YT video in July and I noted at that time I thought economy was in rough shape and hence I was going variable – https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_bYowBt6cr4&pp=ygUUTWFya28ganVyYXMgdmFyaWFibGU%3D
Yes, fixed rates will bottom out around 4% (maybe down to 3.79%) but historically variable is cheaper so I wouldn’t be surprised to see variable under 3.5% by end of the year.
Another reason to get out of the rental business: The murderer/terrorist who mowed down a crowd in New Orleans set fire to an Airbnb to destroy evidence and rented a Ford F-150 Lightning to use as his weapon. What an f-ed up world.
Lets bring it down to brass tacks. I’m assuming you have already purchased a fully serviced lot including city water, storm, sewer, and natural gas. In Victoria this cost will be very expensive.
-Application for the building permit and the required HPO# for the application of the building permit.
-Excavation/blasting, service trenching, surveying, soils engineering.
-Custom foundation built to suit the topography of the given building lot.
-Emulsion, perimeter drains, rain water leads, drain rock, filter cloth and backfill.
-Plumbing connected to the sewer, perimeter drains and rain water leads connected to the storm.
-Under ground power and communications to the foundation, Natural gas to the foundation from the remote meter.
-Styrofoam insulation around the perimeter of the foundation, sand fill via slinger, remesh for the slab on grade.
-Backfill the service trenches in preparation for the boom pump that’s coming to pour the slab on grade.
At this point you can order your framing package and all the seismic hardware required by the BCBC to bolt it all together.
Marko, I just watched your 2025 real estate prediction youtube video, I have to say I agree almost completly with your outlook for a flat to mild increase in sales and outlook for prices to be flat to mildly lower in 2025. I think things may be busy on the first few months in the lower priced homes under 1.5MM and especially under 1.2MM. I don’t agree with you on the bank rate possibly coming down 1.25 – 1.50 as I feel bond rates may continue to drift up and keep fixed rates in the 4.5% range or slightly higher and higher US rates will keep our dollar under pressure.
Its pacific truss in Cobble hill, I know the push/lead guy. They dropped out of the prefab house thing. lack of sales. These guys are pretty good, suitable for a cabin.
https://bclogcabins.com/
Pacific Homes is a prefabricated custom home company my past realtor pointed me towards at one time. They are on Vancouver Island and the homes are built to BC Building Code. There are others. Seems a smart idea to me.
Ask Bubbles.
Its called a trailer, and they are dropped in a trailer park.
Just sell the house and buy one of these. No property tax, no house insurance, not a care in the world. Just tether the cell phone to the Roku big screen and enjoy ancient aliens via Netflix.
Ya unless a home is dropped and it’s plug and play not a lot of savings to be had by having components made off site .
Well you seem very nice. Would you like to go elk hunting tonite? These seismic hold downs are embedded into the concrete foundation at a depth of 18″. They run continuously to the top plate where the roof trusses will be landed. The roof trusses are connected to the top plate with hurricane clips. The lateral shear walls must be blocked at all panel edges.
What you are suggesting is impossible for the current BCBC requirements.
I pointed out in an optional survey that my semi-detached neighbor had the same property type, bedrooms/bathrooms and location as me as well as being constructed 50 years later but had a 100k lower assessment. Their assessment then shot up the following year. So yes, it’s bullshit. There’s still errors so I’ll have to write them again.
You are not the centre of the universe, just someone with poor conversation skills.
I was hoping to start a discussion about innovation in the construction industry with some of the more open minded people here.
Max, true that . Not much of a correction and I didn’t notice much difference in the overall economy, lots of folks still made money . Canada is still the land of Sunny ways
The best thing to do is not pay any attention at all. If I didn’t read this blog I would have no idea the last two years have been a correctional period for real estate.
Well you had better bring out the bellows living in Canada.
Looks like we are only off 35 grand from 2022 high. I’m guessing we will pick all that up and then some in the spring market . That was a short and painless downturn the last 2 years , now let’s get the party started .
And that would have been a good call on their part. Probably the first one they made that day.
But seriously – if the prevailing argument is “our process produces 95% correct results, so it’s good enough”, then what do we need these panels for, if it’s all just BS.
I don’t mind holding bureaucratic processes to the fire. I guess that probably translates.
Honestly that just sounds like they were cutting their losses. They didn’t want to spend more time on answering you.
Okay, I read the article. For starters southwestern British Columbia is in a Subduction Zone. The British Columbia Building Code is very strict enforcing Building Code practices. The article you linked me to is nothing more than an Atco production factory that is building prefabs for remote work camps such as Fort McMurray.
Also, not all the prefab structures are for the rig pigs. There are some serious white collar executives that fly in to monitor production levels. These guys stay in prefab chalets, eating steak and lobster, drinking the finest chardonnay.
You did not read the article before dissing the new idea.
Computer numerical control (CNC) is nothing new. Just go to any cabinet shop in town. The problem lies with the topography. You can’t just whip up a CNC gerber file for a house build on Bear mountain, Skirt mountain, Triangle mountain, etc…
In 1979 you could order a solid cedar 1200 sq/ft pan abode house out of the Sears Christmas wish book (and they were really nice houses). Prefabs just never seem to take off. We already have roof trusses and prefab wall panels. I think that’s about as far as it will go. There is no way you could include the plumbing, wiring, ventilation, insulation, and drywall in a prefab wall panel and expect to meet the BCBC requirements. Not a chance!
“It’s a pretty radical concept for an industry that experts say needs a serious upgrade in order to confront a shortage of skilled labour…the country needs a massive productivity increase.
Using artificial intelligence, a set of four robotic arms are reading blueprints and thinking about what cuts to make, what pieces to nail together and where holes need to be drilled for wires and plumbing…Able to adjust and make several different types of walls, floors and roofs…The Promise Robotics system is highly portable and can be set up in warehouse-type spaces anywhere…After being completed, the walls, floors and roof are sent to the building site, where it takes about a day for workers to assemble the home, complete with windows, doors and stairs, using a crane…it can cut the total time it takes to build a house to about five months”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/artificial-intelligence-robotic-arms-construction-1.7414299
Soon you’ll be bidding on listings. Linked earlier in this thread by VicREanalyst…
“In the Hyyve, real estate agents bid for homeowner listings. Toronto-based proptech firm plans Uber-style disruption that introduces more competition to sector. The online Hyyve platform serves as a marketplace for homeowners to have real estate agents compete for the opportunity to sell a property by displaying their expertise, experience and the services they offer including perks such as home staging. The homeowner receives an upfront payment from the chosen agent as a bonus.”
Turning a home listing into a bidding war.
“To place bids on Hyyve, agents must subscribe to its service with a monthly fee that will fluctuate based on market activity. When a homeowner puts their property’s details on the platform, Hyyve will notify local agents a home is open for bids. Agents will have 48 hours to review information before the bidding takes place.”
https://renxhomes.ca/hyyve-looks-to-shake-up-home-listings-with-bidding-for-agents
I got a call from BC Assessment in the summer as they wanted to do a manual inspection as part of a sanity-check process. An assessor from Nanaimo apparently came by and walked the exterior of the house. I didn’t see much of an adjustment this year and I think they’re in the ballpark. Having said that, I do get slightly annoyed that a few neighbours are assessed lower but have better lots and much nicer structures.
I had two recreational properties listed the Sproat Lake and both sold in Nov/Dec after 669 and 715 days on market with no asking price adjustment, relatively close to asking. Thought that was kind of interesting.
Rob Shaw: Vancouver court case exposes cracks in B.C.’s approach to fast-tracking housing
https://www.theorca.ca/commentary/rob-shaw-vancouver-court-case-exposes-cracks-in-bcs-approach-to-fast-tracking-housing-10026863
Peter, you’re correct. The PARP panel is an informal board made up of ordinary people not retired assessors or those with professional experience in valuations. That’s intentional for public fairness as you are being judged by your peers. The PARP board does receive some training and instructions but it isn’t extensive.
But the PARP decisions may be reviewed as BC Assessment may also appeal that board’s decisions to the next level which is the review board (PAAB) that is made up of experienced retired assessors and other valuation experts.
For example a typical home in Langford would most likely be dealt with at the PARP board stage, but if the property had development potential then that would most likely be appealed to the PAAB board.
Or say your argument is that the properties BC assessment used for comparison were homes along quiet residential streets while your home fronts along an arterial road. Or that the comparable sales all had assigned limited common property underground parking and your property does not have parking. That would most likely be a PARP decision unless the amount you insist your property is worth is outside of the norm.
Meanwhile at Mount Washington – 31 listings of chalets, condos and lots on MLS. Up from a low of roughly 9 circa 2020 and compare to a high of over 90 in 2013 (after some bad snow years and in a generally soft market)
Will be interesting to see how the recreational market holds up. Although a trend I have noticed here is more and more people living up here year round. If you love skiing, and don’t mind a drive to all services it wouldn’t be a bad lifestyle. SFH starting below 1 million. Decent 3 bedroom condos for 500K
… What? The greens have struggled to hold a single seat. The NDP has 25 seats. What are you talking about? Also that line of thinking isn’t in line with how Canada votes. We don’t vote for a prime minister. We vote for an MP and your local representatives are overwhelmingly NDP. If you’re in Saanich, sure, vote for Elizabeth May. If you’re anywhere else on the island, you’d be splitting the vote and helping conservatives.
That was more or less my experience one of the two times I appealed. i guess you don’t exactly need to be a brain surgeon to get picked to be on one of the panels. The assessor that year wasn’t exactly the sharpest tool either.
What a wasteful system. As a start they could switch to a biennial assessment and save some dollars.
31% up off a very low baseline. For the year in Victoria we ended up with an 11% YOY increase; however, I wouldn’t call it a stellar busy year…..third year in a row below 7,000.
Annual Sales
2024 – 6,893
2023 – 6,207
2022 – 6,804
2021 – 10,052
2020 – 8,497
2019 – 7,255
2018 – 7,150
2017 – 8,944
2016 – 10,622
2015 – 8,295
and the SFH median (my favorite metric) if anyone is interested
2024 – $1,145,000
2023 – $1,150,000
2022 – $1,180,000
2021 – $1,050,000
2020 – $885,760
2019 – $788,000
2018 – $799,900
2017 – $752,125
2016 – $659,000
2015 – $567,500
Vancouver house sales up 31% YOY December. Not exactly a slow market. I guess demand will never end for the west coast.
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/greater-victorias-residential-property-values-little-changed-in-2025-assessment-10022765
I challenged the assessment once in order to actually INCREASE it – maybe that was nuts, but we were preparing to sell, and the property was significantly under-assessed and I thought it might have some bearing, however small.
What was interesting was the process. You’d think they would have been happy to increase it, but no, they just refused & I had to go to the hearing. Which was a panel of I think 3 people, and in a packed room, so not much fun being the one guy who stands up to increase their assessment.
It became apparent that 2 out of the 3 people on that panel had no clear idea of their mandate. I showed them the list of direct comparables, with pictures, to clarify the sort of range that our property should be at. In response, the assessor led with stats that showed (somehow) that BC Assessment’s assessments overall for this neighbourhood came in as 95% correct, and so that should be good enough. Never mind how they would have even obtained or tortured those stats, the main thing is they thought showing their process was sound should be the full answer. To which of course I said I had no problem with their process producing an overall sound community result, but the point was I should be able to challenge the FMV of my particular property on its own merits with direct comparables…duh.
The scary thing was that 2 out of 3 people on that panel started talking like they agreed with the assessor, because “the process is 95% sound”. Luckily the senior guy on the panel must have convinced them, because they ended up giving us a fair number.
Very strange experience.
That’s pretty low man, Unless you are like me who’s got a fundamental issue with letting a bunch of union drones manage my tax dollars then I would just leave it and not bother.
Its $4,143 after the homeowner grant.
What’s your property tax? 4500?
I’ll get over it. I’m off on holidays until the 13th so I’m not going to let it bother me. Besides with this current mayor and council I’m used to paying higher taxes anyway.
Saw the first attack ad by the liberals this evening. Looks like an election is around the corner.
I think you should first talk to the staff, they might solve your problem without having to stand in front of a tribunal in March.
I was actually planing on standing before the tribunal next Thursday to discuss my current assessed property valuation. I will explain to them I don’t want the property value up, I want the property value down.
That may mean that an assessor will come out to your home to do an interior and exterior inspection which for many home owners will be the first time. There is a risk that the assessor will increase the property’s value if you have done a lot of upgrades.
If you feel that your property is worth more than the assessed value it may be prudent to let sleeping dogs lie.
If the issue can not be resolved then you may have to appear before a tribunal. So you should be prepared. That might require you to talk to your buddy the real estate agent (seems like everyone has one) to pull some sales for you that sold three months on either side of July 1 of 2024. Try to stay with properties that are similar in house and lot size, age and condition. Houses that are similar in design that bracket your house size by say 500 square feet and lots that around 25% difference one way or the other to yours. Depending on the city you live in, the location may not be as important as say fronting on a busy road or a quiet cul-de-sac.
I would stay away from finding homes that the sale price is the reason for your choice. Too common of an error that people make. If you do that then the assessor will use your own sales to prove you are wrong. Let the similarities between your home and the comparable sales guide your choice and not the price.
If there is a sale along your street that is similar to yours but indicates a different value than what you think your home is worth then you should give a reason why you’re not including it. Because the assessor will use it against you. This will also cause a doubt among the tribunal as to your honesty.
Lastly, try to be brief and hit the key point differences such as house and lot size, age and condition, and of course location. Not longer than 10 or 15 minutes. Home owners tend to talk too long on unimportant things. If you have well that runs dry or the septic has failed and you have quotes on the cost to repair start with that first.
Max-Shhhh… don’t tell B.C. assessment, I didn’t pull any permits for the dungeon.
We spent three hours on their call line. The music is absolutely horrific. I’m just going to wait it out.
People who feel that their property assessment does not reflect market value as of July 1, 2024, or see incorrect information on their notice, should contact B.C. Assessment (as indicated on their notice) as soon as possible in January.
-BC Assessment
https://info.bcassessment.ca/news/Pages/Vancouver-Island-2025-Property-Assessments-Announced.aspx
There is obviously garbled data out there currently. They are not clear and are very difficult to understand, often giving a false idea of the facts.
Considering the improvements in your neighbourhood, maybe it is up.
Careful, that could very well be considered as slavery. Do you have a dungeon with wall mounted chains as well?
You can appeal the valuation, in fact someone said once they appeal every year. Not sure if that was on here.
Because that means the assessed value is up 31k…That’s why it matters. It should be down!
Why does it matter? if you are not selling then you should hope for the lowest appraisal possible.
Fuck it, lets just pretend its assessed at 1,051,000 down from 1,080,000 for 2024…Even though in reality it was assessed at 1,020,000 for 2024.
If I had a dysfunctional sibling I would feed them. And find them something useful to do that helps me make more money.
Understood.
P.S. please clean up your language.
“The previous year was assessed at 1,020,000 ”
The proof of the pudding is in the seeing…will you please share a pic of the assessment notice showing $1,020,000?
What’s the problem?
There is obviously a problem and the data is incorrect. This is what I’ve been bitching about. I understand the Government is quite capable of fucking up a cup of coffee, but this is bullshit.
Disinformation is misleading content deliberately spread to deceive people, or to secure economic or political gain and which may cause public harm.
Hey Patrick,
You posted the news release for 2024. This is the one you want:
https://info.bcassessment.ca/news/Pages/Vancouver-Island-2025-Property-Assessments-Announced.aspx
Average SFH assessments down in Victoria (-1%) and Saanich (-2%)
Condos assessments changed by less, Victoria (0%) and Saanich (-1%)
https://info.bcassessment.ca/news/Pages/Vancouver-Island-2024-Property-Assessments-in-the-Mail.aspx?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Graphic has the SFH assessments by city
The cities could have saved $$$ by just using Leo’s salePrice /assessment charts.
Interesting BC Assessment data to close out the year. No surprise it’s flat / a few points down, depending on municipality. I’ll be curious on people’s thoughts on house values for 2025. I see places like Langford down more than Saanich, likely due to greater sensitivity to rates. Is the inverse also true, that places like Langford perk up more than places like Saanich on the way back up, as rates continue to drop?
Marko, A nice end to the year . Inventory looks tight and a good pop on the sales at about 30 points . Let’s keep it going , and start to push on those prices . Let’s make Canada great again
No its not and you can get around it, and its really easy to do.
-Make a post using the quote feature.
-Edit the post with the quote feature and save.
-The quote feature will now be disabled.
-Edit the post again and do the usual space>space and save.
-The post will be displayed with a > in front of the quote body.
-Refresh the browser…Boom, quote feature enabled.
Its a switch in the script that for some reason has been flipped while editing a quote featured post.
Please don’t get me wrong. We even sprout since its so easy to do. We also have a large green house with full southern exposure, a 915 All American pressure caner with around 200 1 litre canning jars.
“Sprouts often come as part of a deli sandwich or salad from a salad bar. While you can also find them in the produce section of your local grocery store, to ensure that you’re eating the freshest sprouts, growing your own sprouts is the best option. Sprouting seeds doesn’t take a lot of equipment, money, or time.”
https://www.bhg.com/how-to-grow-sprouts-6824808
Month Dec Dec
Year 2024 2023
Net Unconditional Sales 421 329
New Listings 431 383
Active Listings 2,290 2,132
That feature is informative, and may be intentional: it is one way to identify edited remarks.
On first two days of the year political/societal polorisation is off to a robust start here; hopefully today not a bellwether for the remaining 363 days.
Max that’s hilarious.
Men do need protein and so do women. I agree that for some people the best way to get their protein needs met is via meat. My son and partner both eat meat. It’s fine as long as they don’t cook red meat in the house because it’s very smelly (horrid smell).
As for the vote the way I see it is that it’s a perfect time to vote based on party platform and values. There’s no way liberals are getting in again and I don’t think NDP have a shot federally. So it’s a great time to vote green.
For starters that’s a waste of a vote. Men need fat, meat and other proteins to make for a productive day. We can’t just eat a carrot.
Well my brother is on assistance and I know his finances quite well. He has a disability and is unable to work. The thing is it’s pretty hard to manage money if you don’t have any. It’s a game of survival for many. Not about money management problems.
“Grazing animals play a crucial role in maintaining and enhancing soil health. Their grazing stimulates plant growth, and their manure acts as a natural fertilizer, enriching the soil with essential nutrients. This cyclical process supports a diverse range of plant and insect species, fostering a vibrant ecosystem.Sep 4, 2024”.
They need to be thinned out annually. This is why they issue hunting licenses and sell hunting rifles. They graze, drink fresh water from the rivers. They are as fresh and organic as you can possibly get.
That would just add to the cost. The stores try to buy the best quality they can find and sell at a reasonable price. I stick to Superstore, they have huge buying power, I avoid Wal-Mart’s produce. We’ve probably got the best food quality in the world.
Food bank usage is up, so is online gambling. Some people are just poor money managers.
Im a vegetarian and will be voting Green in the next federal election. That picture grossed me out but it’s absolutely right that the freshly hunted meat is way healthier than some of the processed stuff in the stores.
Frank I think food bank usage has increased a lot. I suspect those aren’t the people that you’re seeing in restaurants.
Just finished painting both kids bedrooms including ceiling and trim. Cost $320 per room.
Part of the food quality problem is that it’s hard to easily know the quality. I wish we had a system where all food has a rating based on health like they do in other places.
If your looking for affordable, quality meat I suggest you go take your FAC, buy a hunting license, a long range rifle/with scope (or compound bow), a couple hundred large ziploch bags and a deep freeze. There is a shit ton of elk roaming North Cowichan.
People complain about food prices but always have money for booze, cigarettes, and weed. Restaurants are also busy, they may look empty but the skip delivery services are always coming and going. Yes prices are high but it beats hunting and growing your own. It takes me 1-2 days of work to feed myself for a month. Hunting and prep would take all my time and energy. I’m enjoying an orange now but have never seen an orange tree in my life.
Its not just the affordability, its the quality. For example, I wouldn’t purchase anything that’s on sale if its perishable.
BC Assessment released market trends data today, with the correct averages.
interesting
The data remains unchanged for me. The only thing that has changed is a new lake front build on my road, and a 1/2 acre lake front with house was subdivided into two 1/4 acre lake front properties on my road. That shouldn’t warrant 60k being added to my previous year assessed value.
Thanks dad for the chart. Look at the difference between Canada and France. It’s the rate not the fact that inflation happens that matters.
FYI, BC Assessment released market trends data today, with the correct averages. Not sure what is up with the data behind that reddit chart.
Wasn’t it?
https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/food-inflation
Happy New Year everyone on House Hunt Victoria!
The group is proof that humans are an interesting species.
Good luck with all your dreams and wishes.
I get so much out of House Hunt Victoria.
Thank you all.
I want food to be cheaper. Rents are softening with all the new supply coming on the market. Food prices are a real problem for many people. People seem to think the food inflation problem is global. Sure inflation generally exists but the rate here in Canada has been mind boggling.
I would not describe 40% of the population as fiscal conservatives. The policies that have gotten us in to our current mess have been quite popular with the public.
That may have shifted a little in recent months, though.
Sorry Patrick, I missed that. I find we’re usually on the same page.
No I didn’t say carbon tax was a great idea. I was quoting yet another boomer who said that and I put a “>” to indicate that. Unfortunately the quote feature has been broken for months on HHV, where an edited comment loses its quote marks.
The Harper government had a majority government from 2011-2015. The budget was balanced in their last two years. (At least very small deficits or surpluses).
If poilievre gets a majority I think he will govern as a fiscal conservative and the budget will be close to balanced by the end of his term.
Anyone that praises taxes is not good company.
“Fiscal conservative, social liberal. No party for me.”
This political stance describes at least 40% of the voting public. That political position should generally be good for a majority government.
Prior to Trudeau, this was the Liberal policy program that won them election after election.
Now we’ve had 9 straight years of deficit spending.
Even crazier that when the bloc tried to blackmail the government with their attempt to expand OAS to give more money to rich seniors, even the Conservatives said they would support it.
Needed reforms to address rapidly growing health care and OAS spending — the two biggest federal expenditures apart from operating the federal bureaucracy and paying off our federal debt — are not even on the table.
So it seems that the politicians who used to champion fiscally conservative policies that seem to have all left Ottawa and moved overseas…
Boomer- I guess your only alternative is to move to North Korea. You might end up on the Russian front line.
You say the carbon tax is a great idea, then in the next breath explain how harmful it is. Interesting.
The GST, or get screwed twice tax, would have been a great idea if it was high enough to eliminate income tax. Patrick- Have you ever registered to collect the tax? It’s a huge burden and pain in the ass, with zero compensation to the businesses that collect it. Also the exemption level ($30,000) for small businesses has never increased since inception in 1991. It should be $100,000 by now, I know the argument for wanting to register to get reimbursed for GST paid out, it still isn’t worth the burden. Especially with zero compensation.
Fiscal conservative, social liberal. No party for me…… Not going near the NDP, despise the Liberals and no way am I going to vote Conservative who aren’t even fiscal conservatives any more.
> FWIW, I think the carbon tax was a great idea. If you don’t want to pay it don’t burn so much fossil fuel. Of course I also thought the GST was a great idea because my income tax went down.
Carbon tax hurts Canada’s oil and gas companies, since they emit large amounts of CO₂ during extraction, refining, and transportation processes. If Canada’s oil/gas sector was booming, and oil/gas prices rose, our CAD could become close to par with usd again. If that happened, Canada gdp per capita would rise by 43%, since it’s measured in usd. Eliminating carbon tax would one of many needed steps to help our important oil/gas sector grow and improve our economy to levels near the USA.
As it is, the gdp per capita in Canada has fallen below the lowest state in the USA (Mississippi). Canada has 160 billion barrels of oil (proven reserves), which is the 4th largest in the world. Thats 2X Russia oil reserves, and 3x USA oil reserves.
Nonsense. Lefty.
While that might be a popular campaign statement, no. Food inflation has been a world over problem along with general inflation. AFAIK, Canada is no where near the top (or the bottom) of the list of countries that have been experiencing inflation and most of them do not have a carbon tax. You could always move to Russia with their 28% bank lending rate. Of course they might have different issues….
FWIW, I think the carbon tax was a great idea. If you don’t want to pay it don’t burn so much fossil fuel. Of course I also thought the GST was a great idea because my income tax went down.
Is food inflation caused by the carbon tax?
No. She doesn’t like to poke the bear.
Has your mother in law ever appealed an assessment?
If your asking me if I’m going to do anything about it, the answer would be no.
Max-Does it change anything?
Hard to imagine such a mix-up…do you want to share a pic of that assessment notice?
Max, its amazing how much lower property values are in Langford vs the core at 1/2 the price, are you on a smaller lot or busy street.?
It would be awesome if they published their methodology and formulas.
Of course I do. And it says 1,020,000 as of July 1 2023. They did build a really nice house directly across the street from me. Like were talking money, and its right on the lake with around 75′ of lake frontage.
This thing where you’re thinking the previous year was 1,020 while they say it was actually 1,080 is of course kind of a head-shaker. Do you have a paper copy of your actual tax bill for last year (it will also show the assessed amount, just so you can double-check, even though I realize you’re convinced)
See, now I’m pissed, wtf? 5% of 1,020,000 is exactly 51k. It says the previous year was 1,080,000…That’s a fallacy. The previous year was assessed at 1,020,000 and I know this for a fact. What I’m trying to wrap my head around is where this additional 60k for the previous year came from.
Something is wrong.
(The image will blur over time, just click the image for a clear image).
FWIW, our North Saanich assessment dropped about 5%, right in line with that graph
I know an elder gentlemen that is worth 100 million dollars in town (no bullshit). He invested in diamond mines in the territories back in the 1970’s. He buys his sweats and Velcro shoes at Walmart. People with a lot of money don’t like to flaunt it or brag about it or even talk about it. keep your cards close to your heart.
Having shown thousands of condos not sure where you saw these hotel kitchenettes? Even most 300 sq.ft. Janion units even have decent kitchens -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/27470797/216-456-pandora-ave-victoria-downtown?view=imagelist
or https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/27260124/106-456-pandora-ave-victoria-downtown?view=imagelist
My personally condo jumped 20k or 2%. Not sure what is going on with my development properties, one increased from $1.1 to $2.5 million and I haven’t finished the rezoning and even rezoned it isn’t worth anywhere close to $2.5 million. It is now over assessed by at least 800k even once rezoned. Just more time I’ll have to spend dealing with non-sense appeals and bureaucracy.
but the spreadsheet sucks. They don’t even account for really simple things like whether a condo has parking or not and a downtown parking spot is worth $60k-70k +/-. Literally a smart UVIC student with access to BC Land Title and few other things could figure out all the parking spots in BC in a few months.
I am, I’m the only one that knows anything about house maintenance. She needs four roof replacements this year. Tear off, re-sheet, 25 year shingles with a zinc ridge/hips for moss control…14k each. That’s the best price out there in Victoria.
https://www.aerial-roofing.ca/
Max-Stay on her good side.
My Mother in law is a land pimp. She bought her first house for 16k that she actually saved for in her piggy bank. She owns houses everywhere that she rents out through a property manager. She’s worth millions, but you’d never know it. She buys all her clothing, bedding, and other household items down at the Salvation Army.
Looks about right given what all of our properties (sample size of 8) got assessed at.
Its telling me my house for the previous year was assessed at 1,080,000. I know for a fact it was assessed at 1,020,000 and that was posted on their site for a year. So 60k came out of nowhere and was added to the previous year assessed value. Now my house is assessed at 1,051,000 as of July 1 2024. In my head that means the assessed value is up 31k. In their head the assessed value is down 29k.
I know for a fact the house was assessed at 1,020,000 for 2024.
I wonder how condo assessments fared. Marko can fill us in when he gets home from all those strata board parties he went to last night.
The jurisdictional data on bc assessment seems messed up. Showing a 27% decline in 2024 and 9% in 2025 in esquimalt
Not sure if this chart on reddit is true or not, but it doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Says broad and big declines, but the average place in June/July was selling basically at assessed value (SFH up a little, condos down a little). Doesn’t make sense to have the averages drop so much.
Okay, but there is skill involved in working an Excel spreadsheet.
https://www.bcbudget.gov.bc.ca/2023/sp/pdf/agency/bcaa.pdf
This was the link I wanted to post. Below
115m a year is the cost for this stupidity. What value do they provide doing this every year. I lived in Ontario and guess what things worked without this every year.
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2024/12/23/rental-market-data-looks-encouraging-for-tenants/#comment-123827
I don’t think there is that much work involved. They run the assessment.exe program to compute the coefficients for a second bathroom in Gordon Head, or fourth bedroom in Langford, then it is just arithmetic to determine the assessed values.
Up 11.5% in Esquimalt
Yearly assessments are so stupid and expensive. Ontario does it every decade and it works. This BC process is just insanity.
Up $40G from 2023 Assessment (Oct ’22).
Down $26G from 2024 Assessment (Oct ’23)
The short lived 6% spike in the 2024 Assessment is just static.
I think there is a problem. I don’t think the algorithm has worked its way through the system yet. It says my house was assessed 60k more in 2023 than it was originally posted on their site for a year. Now its telling me its worth 31k more. Somethings wrong.
Down 3%. will try and appeal to get it closer to 5%. I can care less about the money I just hate what tax dollars are used for.
+0.7%
I’m down 47K. Happy New Year.
Basically unchanged here, up 0.8%
Holy shit, it went up 31k. All I had to do is live here.
2025 BC Assessments have been released online.
Wow. The interlock parking pad they’ve installed appears to have no foundation and it’s already warping in a big way.
When I was house hunting I viewed some properties I considered unlivable. Owners had installed their own walls haphazardly, garages and attics had been converted to horrid airbnbs with zero regard for code or safety or decency, kitchens were a collection of free-on-the-side-of-the-road furniture, kitchens and bathrooms had no ventilation, floors were visibly sinking, etc etc. Then on the condo side of my budget, kitchens were just.. not kitchens. Hotel kitchenettes are not livable for more than ~1 month. It was a huge breath of fresh air when I saw the place I bought and it had a full size kitchen that wasn’t horrid and a bathroom that had been updated within the last 2 decades.
I don’t know if any of you guys are familiar with hoarding…Its big business. Basically the hoarder dies, the kids call and ask how to deal with it. These guys stack shit like no other, floor to ceiling with little goat trails leading to the primary rooms in the house. We hire out the disposal of the hoarding/consumer goods. Once its cleaned out they’re really not in that bad of shape.
Light sanding on the original hardwood floor, followed by a couple coats of urethane. Replace kitchen cabinets exactly as they were. Upgrade the bath(s), paint everything white… And mow the lawn.
Are you saying we should have a “kitchen reno” tax, instead of a “flipping” tax?
Its called kicking the can.
Bullshit.
nevermind just found 1611 hawthorn, man that is a bad flip. lol looks like they put in used kitchen counter/cabinets.
Good paying jobs were scarce in the 1980’s. There are two ways to get out of a recession. Either from increasing consumption by consumers or government economic policies.
Today the combined mortgages owned by Canadians is greater than the national GDP. There is little chance that consumers have the ability to spend their way out of the next recession. It is essential to keep money flowing through the local economies. That can be done by hiring more government workers and increasing immigration. Better to have them working than collecting a welfare or unemployment check.
The populists might want you to believe differently but the only way to recover from a recession is for the government to increase spending. Axing the Carbon Tax isn’t going to do it.
In the financial world, nothing is more certain than the answer here being a resounding yes. Over the long run, and certainly over a hundred years, stocks have only gone up exponentially.
Yes at current values they may be a bubble ready to deflate but if they do, over any longer term it will just seem like a blip. Look at the 2020 situation, now just a blip. Even the great financial crisis of 2008, just a blip – if you hold long enough and own the market overall, or at least enough of a broad swathe. Even better if you have some cash building up to redeploy.
Buy & hold a diversified portfolio works great if you have the luxury of time.
Just as it works great with real estate.
Much of that is also just inflation, or currency deflation depending on how you look at it. Which makes things like a higher capital gains inclusion rate so destructive, but that’s another story.
Anyways, yes – Victoria RE: solid as a rock.
What happened to that haunted house flip in gordon head? The one where Frank thought it was a smoking deal or whatever.
Primarily because the market was going up, not because their painting skills were exceptional. Other owners also benefit in terms of tax free appreciation.
Where are the flippers now? Ohhh wait, flipping doesn’t work when the market is flat.
What do you mean? Hiring more public servants isn’t going to make housing more affordable, reduce waiting times for knee replacements, or get homeless people off the street?
True, but how many such properties are really uninhabitable as opposed to not meeting the standards of today’s TV house porn? I’m pretty sure that almost all properties that really aren’t fit to live in just get torn down.
I keep hearing that we’re short of construction labour and I’d rather see it put to work building new dwellings than just making existing dwellings more expensive.
Re-vamping a home with cosmetic upgrades is only a short term solution. After a decade or two those houses are back to where they were as they need to be updated once more as buyer’s preferences when it comes to cabinets and floor coverings change and these items depreciate.
What you can’t fix is the size of the house without a major renovation which is outside of the scope of most flippers. Basically putting lipstick on a pig. Most of the homes remain a two-bedroom, one-bathroom home on the main living level that when updated and listed at a higher price would mostly appeal to the retiree market.
That usually works out well as Victoria does get retirees moving here to be close to a hospital. In ten minutes they can be at the Emergency room to wait 10 hours to see a doctor.
Doing nothing to stop the bust in the 1980’s was exactly right. Affordability had reached record lows in 1981 and had to come back to normal if the real economy in Vancouver and elsewhere had any chance of recovering.
Victoria resident maps his daily routine to prove to city staff his primary residence should qualify for short-term rental
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-victoria-resident-maps-his-daily-routine-to-prove-to-city-staff-his/
No paywall: https://archive.ph/FtS0x
House flipping if done in moderation is good for the real estate market. However, the lower interest rates of the past gave way to gentrification of neighborhoods. Anyone with a hammer and a smart phone was buying and flipping and thereby raising the prices of starter homes.
The vintage neighborhoods of Victoria which should have been ripe for higher density housing such as town homes could not be assembled due to the higher prices. It was just easier to buy land in new subdivisions in the Westshore than to invest in town homes. And for the most part Victoria was left behind in the development of middle income town homes with city councils concentrating on downtown skyboxes which progressively became smaller and smaller in floor space.
And today we have the missing middle problem. Our problems and for most cities began when neighborhoods were being revamped through gentrification instead of redeveloped with higher density town home developments. It is easy to assess where the problem began but I doubt anything could have been done to stop it. People were making money and for any government to put the brakes on this cash cow would not have been well received with cries of socialism and communism. Even if we had a time machine and knowing what the effect would be, it still would have happened.
This flipping tax is awfully similar to an anti-spec tax I suggested years ago – major penalties for buying and selling in a short time which go to 0 after 2 years. I have some doubts about it’s ability to move the needle but I do think it’ll be interesting to watch what happens. Flipping is a service I want to exist. I’m comfortable doing some rennos myself but I don’t want to live in a project or a construction zone. If a flipper can take a not move-in ready property and bring it up to that state, that’s a worthy service. Painting and re-staging is not. When house hunting, it was exceedingly frustrating watching the same properties being bought and sold 3 or 4 times inside of 2 years. Some of the lipstick rennos were literally just painting the front door a different colour. The flippers were rewarded with 10’s of thousands per month for that “service”.
Discouraging flippers will make the real estate market less healthy. Discouraging people from making money will make the entire country unhealthy. The government isn’t the answer to our problems. They are basically incompetent.
A flipping tax may be useless in that it likely wouldn’t have a significant impact on paper. But it is signaling to the broader investor market to chose a different province to conduct their business.
A healthy real estate market needs investors. REITs, Private Equity, pre sale condo purchasers, the tradesman flipping a house are all part of the fabric of a well functioning real estate market.
But we don’t have a healthy real estate market mostly due to supply chain issues that have driven up the cost of new construction worldwide. If we are not seeing great success in lowering the cost of new home construction then I can understand the government pivoting to stabilize or lower the price of existing homes by targeting this portion of buyers while not affecting demand from end-users.
What we want is for families to buy their first home at a price where they can still afford to buy other goods and services in the community so that businesses don’t have to close and the youth don’t leave the city out of economic necessity. The government is spending tons of money keeping construction jobs going in the purpose built rental market as investors for new individual condo sales have slowed. They want a soft landing in the market and prevent the experience of the 1980’s that resulted in a foreclosure market in many of BC’s communities.
This tax may be just a band-aid solution where they are trying to tear the plaster off slowly but I prefer this method rather than ripping the band-aid off, as what happened in the 1980’s when the government did little to nothing.
In the last hundred years of stock market activity, I wonder if the gains investors have made exceed the losses. Millions of penny stocks and IPOs have come and gone taking investors money with them. In some instances, it was a scam from the beginning. For example: Brex.
As a matter of fact I don’t think we really need any taxation on flipping beyond taxing it as business income, which has always been the policy. But we do have a housing crisis and governments like to be seen to be “doing something.” And raising taxes on flippers creates a lot less resistance than allowing a fourtplex next door.
My point is simply that selling stocks at a capital gain is anything but “sleazy”. It’s fundamental to how capital markets work. And yes stock markets can be overvalued, but that’s the fault of buyers, not sellers, and those who pay too much will eventually get their due. And no an overvalued stock market is not in itself a crisis. If you think stocks are overvalued you can even sell short and make money that way. If you’re right.
Flipping has zero effect on the housing crisis. The properties come back on the market in a short time usually in much better condition and ready for occupancy. It should actually be encouraged.
Yep, add it to the pile of reforms that are tackling things that aren’t the problem. One flipping tax is already useless, as if a second one would do anything. Gave an interview today to that effect. But people don’t want to hear that. Flippers are bad and they don’t care about the evidence. So from a politics standpoint probably a good move
+1, seems to be a never ending list of non-sense reasons for the housing crisis. Easier to place the blame on “flippers” versus actually tackling and solving real housing issues.
In Victoria it is fairly common. I am going to guess 30% to 40% don’t require pre-sales to start construction as they have enough capital and or inventors; however, I am guessing the vast majority end up with construction financing at some point during construction – they just don’t need the pre-sales to start.
I had a couple of clients buy from Viking in Langford recently and they had the building framed up before starting pre-sales.
Not zero, I know a couple that don’t require presales but not sure how common it is.
It is time to come to the realization that all of the low lying fruit has already been picked. There is no nice way to say it. Do you really want these young people getting into debt up to their eyeballs over a house? Then what?
Laughable in that it will only have an affect those buying a starter home intending to do a quick upgrade and resell at a higher price. That’s less demand that end-users have to compete against.
When the city brought in hand demolition of homes the price of starter homes came down. Now it’s possible to buy a starter home in the Marigold neighborhood for $650,000 or in North Oak Bay for $765,000. These are far from glorious homes but for a young family starting out they can get into the market with some help from mom and dad and build their own sweat equity over the next few years.
But we do have an asset inflation situation.
(It is not just houses & the stock market that are overvalued, it seems that all assets cost more as debt becomes less expensive.)
I’m looking forward to the results of our predictions. What’s first place getting this year Leo? Taylor Swift tickets?
Arguably we do have a housing crisis. However the connection between presale flippers and the housing crisis is tenuous at best. And the idea that this new tax will be impactful on the housing crisis is truly laughable.
Even if you could afford it you would never use your own money.
The other question is what percent of condo projects rely on “flippers” to provide some of the financing and make the project possible?
Probably zero, why would anyone want to self finance? Cost of equity is much higher than cost of debt…..
What percent of condo projects do you think don’t rely on presales because they’re self-financed?
That’s because the stock market is nothing more than a giant fucking gas bag that’s ready to explode at any given moment.
Thing is in the real world first time buyers typically aren’t buying pre-sales to wait for three years for the project to possibly be completed on time, or to be delayed another year, or cancelled.
Just in the last few months in Victoria
Tresah project cancelled after three years of pre-sales (buyers received deposits back, but not interest on deposits) -> https://www.timescolonist.com/business/condo-project-near-mayfair-likely-to-become-179-unit-rental-building-as-construction-costs-rise-9556383
Project approaching completion completely burns down -> https://www.vicnews.com/news/north-of-10m-in-damage-abstract-talks-aftermath-of-saanich-fire-7662938
then a bunch of other smaller pre-sale project stuff -> https://www.reddit.com/r/VictoriaBC/comments/yw7ozj/skyeview_condo_development_status/
And it looks pretty…Pretty expensive. physical gold spot price per ounce in 1990 = $343.87 USD. Physical gold spot price per ounce today = $2,637.10 USD. It doesn’t seem like much. But you hold it…In your hands. One ounce of gold will buy you a finely tailored suit today.
What about all these character houses and the early 1990 infiltration frenzy…Including the CoV.
I bought gold stocks, worst decision in my life. Buying physical gold was a far better investment . You can store hundreds of thousands $ in a small safety deposit box. It is incredibly easy to sell, gold buyers are everywhere, you get close to market value, and our current exchange rate is a definite bonus.
Investing in condos has never appealed to me. Worst case scenario, if your real estate investment goes south you can always move into it. I never wanted to live in a condo.
I don’t know if this was in response to something but I sort of used to work in the precious metals industry and the advice there was don’t invest in physical gold. It hard to get a price that’s actually market value, hard to store and hard to sell. You can invest in gold by investing in gold mining, refining and working (jewelry and collectables companies). Then you don’t have to store it and it’s easier to sell.
“In your mind is it also sleazy buying shares in a company and selling later at a profit.”
We don’t have a stock holding crisis. Anyone can buy stocks regardless of price. As well, if you sell shares at a profit, that’s presumably because your holdings have become more productive.
So if it was risk free why didn’t developers hold on to all the units until completion or at least 75% of the units (25% sales to satisfy construction financing). I thought developers were greedy? or they are just so nice they decided to give out pre-sale purchasers risk free gifts.
Yes, in hindsight it looks risk free but it isn’t. The first three pre-sales I purchased didn’t do much as I purchased them in 2009, 2011, 2013 and the condo market dropped during that time.
The life expectancy of a wood frame house can vary greatly depending on several factors, including the quality of construction, maintenance, climate, and exposure to elements. Generally, a well-built and well-maintained wood frame house can last anywhere from 50 to over 100 years.
Regular maintenance, such as protecting the wood from moisture, treating it for pests, and ensuring proper ventilation, can significantly extend the lifespan of a wood frame house.
BUT…. Don’t confuse physical life expectancy with the Economic Life of a building.
The economic life of a house refers to the period during which the house can be expected to be economically viable or useful, before it requires major renovations or becomes obsolete. This is different from its physical life (how long it can physically stand). The economic life is influenced by factors such as:
Market Demand: Changes in the real estate market and neighborhood desirability.
Technological Advancements: New building techniques or materials that might make older houses less efficient or desirable.
Maintenance Costs: Increasing repair and upkeep costs over time.
Regulatory Changes: Updates to building codes and safety regulations.
For example, I had a client that built a home along an arterial road, but 10 years later the neighborhood had transitioned to a higher density and although the home was only ten years old it was to be demolished for a condominium project. Physically it could have stood for 65 years -maybe 100 years if well maintained but for economic reasons it was a tear down. The land was worth more vacant for a condominium project than it was with the house on it.
Did he get a Swifty?
“ In your mind is it also sleazy buying shares in a company and selling later at a profit. Added no value?”
Flipping presale condos is on par with scalping Taylor swift tickets.
For a long time, buying a presale condo and expecting an increase in value was pretty well risk free. My brother-in-law did a few in Vancouver. Got caught by CRA but still ended up ahead. Yes. Sleazy.
There is still a Spanish boot full of gold near the brass cannon over towards the left of the Leech River.
https://thenav.ca/focus/the-legend-of-leechtowns-golden-boot/
I sometimes watch property shows and one featured one of the oldest cottages in England. I believe it still had dirt floors. The dirt was compressed and periodically they’d add herbs to make it smell good and I think new layers too. Just mind boggling that some of those places are still standing.
Keep gold…in your house…
Forget keeping it, I turned it into a house –I sold all my gold (and just about everything else) to be able to afford a home in Victoria.
Well actually the house was not too expensive, it is the land here in town that is so pricey.
Jack/whatever/Groot has been on about that for years on this blog. First all the old houses were going to fall over spontaneously from rot or earthquake. Now they just need to all be torn down.
Several of my Swiss relatives live in SFH’s from the early 1800s, updated over the years. Original wood beams aged beautifully and holding up well
In your mind is it also sleazy buying shares in a company and selling later at a profit. Added no value?
Month to date activity:
Sales: 400 (+28% over this time last year)
New lists: 421 (+16%)
Inventory: 2322 (+9%)
Month Dec Dec
Year 2024 2023
Net Unconditional Sales 400 329
New Listings 421 383
Active Listings 2,322 2,132
Looks like we will end the year with around 6,900 sales
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/judge-sides-with-widow-89-who-sold-treasure-loaded-land/article4161985/
Put it in a fire extinguisher in the decommissioned chimney.
Keep your gold ingots in your household safe. I have been collecting gold coins and ingots since I was a teen. It was cheaper to purchase an ounce of gold than an ounce of BC bud.
Personally I’m happy if we preserve more old houses. It’s a really North American thing to think everything should be demolished after say 50 years. Our current house is 1910. I’m painting the two kids bedrooms atm. Just did ceilings yesterday (they’re high so it’s more challenging). This place will look great when I’m done and has character. Any problems with it can be fixed. We have opened zero walls on this floor and it will be beautiful family home. I’ve heard of people opening a wall and inspector comes and says oh you have to extend that out because it’s an exterior wall and needs more insulation. Then because toilet needs x inches on either side the whole plan has to change. A neighbor bought the same kind of craftsman house as us but on Victoria side and the inspector came and said they can’t do any more work to their own house because of various things that need to be settled. It seems hard to do anything (build new or repair old).
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/tinder-of-construction-aims-to-keep-b-c-building-waste-out-of-landfills/ar-AA1wGZPf
I have heard stories in the past of immigrants purchasing an entire floor of a development then selling them off to individuals back in their country (when there were no restrictions). Then the Airbnb craze hit and condos became a hot commodity. All the new restrictions over the last few years have dampened demand and you’re right, the flipping presale condos for a profit ship has sailed. Conditions have also changed that have made investing in any real estate a risky proposition. It still exists but has become a game for the wealthy. Little guys like me who were able to scratch together a down payment in the past can’t touch property priced at current levels. 30-40 grand was doable, 300-400 grand, one has to have very deep pockets.
Overblown by the media….10s of thousands of people underwater on pre-sale condos in Ontario right now. Pre-sale assignments (“flipping”) were a thing when you could buy a pre-sale under market value and then on top of that while the building was being built the market appreciated substantially. These days pre-sales are quite a bit more expensive than tangible product (a one year old condo in a similar building/location). You need large market appreciate during construction just to break even, let alone to be able to flip it.
Then you have years long delays in construction on top of cancellations (Tresah project in Victoria) on top of random stuff like the pre-sale that burned down on Quadra a month ago.
I use to be a huge fan of pre-sales and represented hundreds of clients in Victoria over the years on pre-sales, but not something I recommend anymore. Further explained in my YT video I posted three months ago -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8onlbI_stE
As far as it being sleazy interesting how certain things get labelled. If someone owns a condo and they buy a second pre-sale condo they happen to get lucky on and “flip” for 50k on which they have to pay income tax that individual is sleazy. If someone bought a home in the Uplands 10 year ago for 2 million, sells it today for 4 million, so $2 million tax free they are an outstanding citizen – they just bought a family home to live in.
I agree, unfortunately, demolition costs have skyrocketed since most older homes contain asbestos. This inevitably adds to the cost of the new build making it more unaffordable. Some older homes are better built with better quality materials that could last longer than a new house. I still say that some of the new structures being built are crap.
Yes Frank, by updating an older home the person is extending its economic life. A house that should have been demolished and a larger house built possibly with a suite or two is now not built. And that’s where we are today. Thousand of inner city houses that have not been built to their Highest and Best Use and now can’t be assembled for town houses as the cost to assemble these updated homes is too high.
They might not be providing new stock, but they are reviving dead stock, essentially adding new inventory.
That’s called speculating, could also be considered gambling. No guarantee of the condo going up in value, but in a high immigration, low interest rate environment, your chances (the odds) were in your favor, to the extent that the “investment “ was a no-brainer. Airbnb restrictions, lower immigration and higher interest rates have changed all that. Keep your money in your mattress.
Investors play a crucial role in the real estate market by providing capital, stimulating development, and contributing to economic growth. They fund the development of new housing , generate jobs, stimulate local economies, and generate tax revenue for local governments. They also stabilize the market by reducing volatility and provide a steady flow of new housing which benefits both buyers and sellers as well as contribute to the rental market with new housing.
For existing housing the flipper isn’t adding any new housing to the market but what they are doing is making it easier for a first time buyer with little to no funds to improve the property to buy an updated home with financing. The home will be more costly but those costs are amortized over a long time.
Or at least that’s the way it is suppose to work. It comes apart when home prices rise too fast over too short of a time. Then the market has to take a time out so that incomes and savings can catch up. This is when the housing market is most fragile to a recession or black swan event.
I also have no issue with what you are calling “flipping” here – buying a wreck, repairing / renovating it and then reselling.
The negative version of “flipping” that I have is buying a presale condo and selling it immediately. Sleazy and adding no value.
Is this also called “flipping”? Or does it have another name?
This week on “holy sh*t look at this”, 545 Dalton St! Short on space? No problem, just combine the kitchen with the bathroom! Want an income suite but only have a garden shed? No problem! Just add a wood stove and some shower curtains for “privacy”! The AI write up says this place has a “great vibe and feel” and “little to no monthly costs associated with ownership”.
Just wow.
Well, I’m thinking you pretty much covered all the bases with that post!
I remember being brought in as a consultant on a water front property along Lands End. The owners bought the property at a good price and wanted to remodel the home and flip it for a profit as the neighborhood would support a higher price. They had plans that they drew up themselves and rudimentary costs for a mostly cosmetic renovation.
Except they never addressed the issue of why they got a good price in the first place and that their planned renovation did not fix the issue of why the property sold at a lower price relative to other similar sized water front homes in the neighborhood. They tossed their original renovation plan and went with a full renovation that changed the room layout to maximize the water view from the living room and ended up with a property that appealed to a larger target market of prospective purchasers, and thereby doubling the properties market value in a flat market.
Last month I had a similar situation with a couple in Brentwood Bay. They owned an older home that in its day was a custom architecturally designed home. But times have changed and what was custom then is not what today’s buyers want in a home. Today’s buyers would gut the home of most of the features they consider to be of value to them. A cosmetic update would not increase the value of their property to what they thought their home would be worth.
And another example of a young couple that in this case over paid for a property but at the time the property was one of the lowest priced homes on the market. He being a tradesman and his spouse being a wannabee interior designer have gone overboard on the renovation and the time it was taking to do the renovation without addressing the issue of the price range of the future target market of buyers for the completed home. Their renovation budget ballooned while they paid a mortgage on the property while renting another home.
It also works the other way too. A contractor bought a property in South Oak Bay and knew his target market of purchasers and what they wanted in a home and renovated to that standard for a home of its size and location. The home was the right size and layout and just needed updating. He knew the price range of future buyers and was able to budget for a sale at the top end of that range. He did well as he did the renovation during a time of rising prices.
What typically happens with people wanting to flip a property is that they hugely underestimate the costs of renovation and make alterations to the interior layout or additions to the exterior to fix a bad layout. Relying on friends in the trades that have full time jobs and can’t be there when they need them to do the electrical and plumbing. What was suppose to be a cosmetic upgrade turns into a gutting of the interior, a new exterior, and expanded roof while not considering, for example, that the home fronts along a heavily travelled road. External factors that they can’t change.
Adding value to the property costs alot of money these days.
Tough to make the numbers work even in a flat market. Where a lot of “flippers” made money in the last 10 years was getting lucky on large market run ups. A flip typically takes a year so odds were in your favor last 10 years (only 2 down years).
In my opinion the problem wasn’t people adding value to the property with renovations/upgrades but the market itself.
SFH prices Victoria
2014 – 1.76%
2015 – 6.60%
2016 – 16.17%
2017 – 13.95%
2018 – 5.68%
2019 – (3.34%)
2020 – 12.96%
2021 – 21.63%
2022 – 10.52%
2023 – (3.41%)
There is nothing you can do if the market turns against you. You need a at a minimum a flat market to make any numbers work.
100%, the only way to make flipping work which is rare in BC due to very high friction costs such as PTT is sweat equity. In my opinion, when someone buys a house and does an extensive renovation on that property including sweat equity I actually think they are providing a valuable service to society.
I once tried to do a “flip” on a rancher in Sunnymead and lost money on it (not even including sweat equity) so definitively not guaranteed money.
Many investors believe that trees grow to the moon. It doesn’t work that way.
There wouldn’t be any flipping, or hoarding if the government remove redtapes, remove NIMBY first nation veto power and open up crown land.
Here is a good one that is still on the market going for a guaranteed loss where as the flipper before them made out real good.
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/27167893/1105-donwood-dr-saanich-royal-oak
Those with teeth, get the meat.
I always cheered for the Christians but the lions always won.
You win or lose. No different than any other game created by humans dating back to the roman empire.
House flipping is not for the faint of heart or anyone that can’t provide at least 50% of the sweat equity. Most house flippers are tradesmen with connections to other tradesmen. They also know a couple semi-reliable grunts that will do a lot of the heavy lifting for cash. It definitely is not a guaranteed money maker, there are easier ways.
Exactly. Back in the day I almost got stomped twice…I ended up making it out unscathed. It was most certainly a wake up call for me!
Realistically the true “house-flipper” aspect has so many holes that it’s a non-issue. Max, can you see a house out there now that you would be comfortable buying personally, putting on a little lip-stick, and then selling at a profit within a year after all closing, tax, reno, holding costs, your own time, and realtor fees – with any level of certainty? How much would you need to know you’ll make before taking the risks? 30% after accounting for all above? In this market?
Everyone makes $$ house flipping until they don’t.
That doesn’t leave very much left on the table now does it. Considering the time and effort, carrying costs and all.
The 20% tax has a long list of exemptions and is only applicable to the net income (net after all purchase costs, selling costs, and improvement costs).
When you boil it down it is only applicable to pre-sales, assignments and non-substantial renovations (house flippers). After 12 months the tax reduces month-by-month until zero at 24 months.
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/taxes/income-taxes/bc-home-flipping-tax
The new flipping tax being extended to 2 years is too long imo. Reaches too far and doesn’t seem like the purpose is to prevent flipping. What kind of flipper takes two years to flip a property? That would be bad business obviously. Should be 1 year.
https://renxhomes.ca/hyyve-looks-to-shake-up-home-listings-with-bidding-for-agents
I really don’t have a problem with that. What they don’t want is everyone with a hammer trying to make a bunch of tax free gains. Since a homeowner can’t wright off any expenses to the principle residence, it also makes for an excellent money laundering tactic.
Ya, the comrades in authority positions really don’t understand that you need investment in housing to build homes for people to live in. After years of regulating to make building homes take longer and cost more, their solution to a lack housing for people is to try to stop people from spending money to build it. You can’t make this shit up if you tried.
Saw on the news today there is a new flipping tax in B.C. 20% if property sold in less than 2 years. Who’s going to buy those fixer- uppers? Not first time buyers busy working their asses off trying to make mortgage payments. Eliminating investors from the real estate market is going to make things worse.
This is interesting: https://www.richmond-news.com/local-news/tax-evasion-nets-richmond-man-21m-fine-conditional-sentence-10002158
Flipped 14 homes in 2 years, says these are from assignment fees. “failed to report $7,485,246 in taxable income for the years 2011, 2012 and 2014″. Seems high as far as assignments go, but not sure of the details.
Regardless of the tax fraud and what you might call a pyramid scheme, this person was part of what it took to create 14 new homes. Many developments rely on ‘presale” and similar investors to get off the ground. Doesn’t matter your feelings towards speculators, “no investors, no development.” I’m thinking that market has largely dried up for now amid never-ending added taxes and restrictions piling on to create a very negative development market.
Yeah decision is limited and basically saying province can’t invent new legislation just to avoid court oversight. Looks like a good decision but not really about housing.
Do note that this decision dealt with limiting judicial oversight, not with provincial powers over municipalities.
B.C. court rebuffs David Eby’s war on NIMBY opposition to social housing
https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/b-c-court-rebuffs-david-ebys-war-on-nimby-opposition-to-social-housing
If you do a search you will find that 1039 Verrinder was also listed for rent just last October/November. Asking $4500/month and one listing claiming it’s in Oak Bay.
Sure signs of a desperate seller.
I showed the house and just arriving/leaving the street is an adventure in itself. I came down Pandora and not sure if legal to turn onto Verrinder off Pandora but I did anyway, and then the advanced right off Fort not sure if you are allowed to turn onto Verrinder without the advanced right or you have to weight for the advanced right. I think leaving you are only allowed to go right.
and I can’t speak negatively about listings but the market is fairly adapt at adjusting for negative variables especially when the market is slow and buyers have time to weight everything.
Layout is the only issue with that house?
Listen, I don’t want to buy a condo alright. If I could retract the statement I would.
If you want to avoid paying taxes then you need a better plan or a better lyric. Another issue is that you would be commingling payments such as property taxes, maintenance and other costs with an inheritance agreement.
That’s a lot of people sleeping in one bed.
Max,
Could you remind me the butcher block counter place you mentioned a while ago?
Only the good die young. I have lots of time to plan my tax avoidance strategies.
Is that your best case scenario Max?
You died.
I didn’t sell anything…I died. Whatever, I really don’t see much in the way of gains on a condominium moving forward anyway. Is there anything the government doesn’t have there meat hooks on? The driving force behind food price inflation is the carbon tax.
You would be paying the capital gains taxes (final tax return) as it would be deemed sale of an investment property.
Well, also more and better inventory to compete against in the spring and the problems with that house (layout) aren’t really easily fixable. I think folks might be surprised by the amount of inventory likely to arrive on market this spring.
That’s not how I roll. At $463,500. I’d rather just buy the condo in cash. I would charge them no interest, and no down payment would be required. They carry the property taxes, Insurance, and maintenance fees. When my Wife and I die then they get the condo. Until then, the Wife and I still hold the title without any risk to the investment. We may have to charge them the minimal rent required to be tax compliant.
Anyone know why 1039 Verrinder Ave would sell at such a steep loss?
1039 Verrinder Ave was sold at quite a loss – 25%. It looks like it was renovated too (new stove). I find it odd that they had the capital to renovate but not the capital to hold till spring. I still gag a bit when I catch myself thinking that a million dollar property was a good deal but considering what’s out there at that price point, I think the buyers did well on this one (gags)
Another option for renters is to purchase.
For a typical one-bedroom downtown condo that sells around $463,500 that means coming up with a down payment, paying property taxes, and maintenance fees.
In order for rent to roughly equate to the costs of ownership it is necessary for most renters to put down a sizable down payment in excess of 20 percent. Ideally someone buying their first condo should think of a down payment of around 35% as that should provide enough cushion to meet financial obligations.
If you’re fortunate for mom and pop to help with the down payment that’s what you should be targeting as a down payment. If you ask for too little then you may find it difficult to meet your future financial obligations and then you may have to go back to the bank of mom and pop.
The same with mom and pop. They should assess their kids need and “gift” them more rather than too little
In Canada, unlike the USA, we don’t have limits on gifts that would trigger taxes. So give your kid a real head start in life. Too little and then they will struggle and that might cause them to default on their payments and that would put your investment in their future at risk.
‘Rental market has softened a bit. One of my parents’ basement suite students moved out and we put the room up for rent at $900 and only eight inquiries and three applications; none of which were the right fit so will leave that room vacant for January at minimum as the other student in the suite is ideal. In the past it would be 30-40 inquiries.
I had clients list a 2 bed 2 bath 1990s condo downtown for $2,800 and that went no problem. Most of the new builds are north of $3,000 so price sensitivity is definitively there.
I noticed Bosa dropped their studios from $2,060 to $1,900 + one month free -> https://rentals.ca/victoria/dockside-green
but $1,900 for a 405 sq.ft. studio with no parking is still a lot of $. I am renting a nice one bedroom with parking at the Encore for $2,000 and a 430 sq.ft. junior one bed with parking at Promontory for $1,750.
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say a parking in downtown grabs around 60-75/month( in reality, they hit much higher), and the Promontory and Encore are located in such a premium location that also situated in the vicinity of all downtown offers. this works out around 3.91/sqft for the smaller units.. However, all other units in those brand new PBRs have larger unit sizes..
However, the most current stabilized PBR still hits $4+/sqft( with additional incomes from parking, storage/lockers/ bike storage) and a fancy lucrative unit mix ratio. It’s all math behind those design decision and a little luck on their own comfortable level around discount rate and the local terminal capitalization rate.
‘The median asking price for a downtown one-bedroom is currently $1,980 per month but can range from a low of $1,695 to a high of $2,650 per month
For a two-bedroom the median is $2,800 with a range of $2,250 to a high of almost $4,000 for a large view unit
Typically a two-bedroom will rent at 40% more than a one-bedroom all other things being equal.
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if a separated and refined a little bit more those “rent” without parking, storage/lockers/ bike storage” , it would be much interesting for property owners and developers.
also I am tracking the new builds on University Heights area by looking at city’s building permits, I would be nice to have some insights on the stabilized rent and the projected rents and their commercial lease rate…
Regarding the affordability of rents these days. I rented a 500 sq/ft, 1 bedroom, pan abode cottage out in Metchosin back in 1996 with my girlfriend. We paid $650 per/mo plus utilities. I think $2000 per month inclusive for a brand new 500 sq/ft 1 bedroom PBR sounds pretty affordable and reasoable considering the 2025:1996 ratio, the distance of 29 years.
It IS great news for renters. Hopefully with more PBR coming on the market it stays flat and fair for a while.
Happy holidays everyone.
This is great news for renters, who have born the brunt of the seemingly never ending housing crisis. Hopefully things continue to improve.
The silence in here is deafening.
The median asking price for a downtown one-bedroom is currently $1,980 per month but can range from a low of $1,695 to a high of $2,650 per month
For a two-bedroom the median is $2,800 with a range of $2,250 to a high of almost $4,000 for a large view unit
Typically a two-bedroom will rent at 40% more than a one-bedroom all other things being equal.
Rental market has softened a bit. One of my parents’ basement suite students moved out and we put the room up for rent at $900 and only eight inquiries and three applications; none of which were the right fit so will leave that room vacant for January at minimum as the other student in the suite is ideal. In the past it would be 30-40 inquiries.
I had clients list a 2 bed 2 bath 1990s condo downtown for $2,800 and that went no problem. Most of the new builds are north of $3,000 so price sensitivity is definitively there.
I noticed Bosa dropped their studios from $2,060 to $1,900 + one month free -> https://rentals.ca/victoria/dockside-green
but $1,900 for a 405 sq.ft. studio with no parking is still a lot of $. I am renting a nice one bedroom with parking at the Encore for $2,000 and a 430 sq.ft. junior one bed with parking at Promontory for $1,750.
They’re only looking at apartments/condo type units? There’s a massive amount of rentals that go on in houses. Whole houses, half or third of houses, basement suite, garden suite or accessory dwelling units. Seems a way to get a very skewed picture of the rental market.
I suspected that the vacancy rate for downtown condos had increased by looking at how long the active listings have been on the market.
It’s tricky estimating market rents as there is considerable variety in the age, views, and size of the units. Less so in one-bedrooms but for two-bedrooms and more the variety of the units is wide. For example a two-bedroom unit with a market value of say $600,000 is most likely to rent for less than a larger two-bedroom that may have a view with a market value of one-million and more. To do a reliable analysis it’s necessary to cross reference the rental rate against the physical and locational aspects of the rental unit as well as its market value. That data for most rentals is not available or incorrect.
A big problem for Victoria is the sample size as compared to larger cities. The smaller the sample size the larger the error in the results. This is magnified if the data between the two periods being compared has changed as it has in most cities with the new construction in purpose built rentals. A decade ago most of the apartment data was comprised of 1960’s and 1970’s built apartment blocks. A lot of those complexes have since been renovated to compete with new(er) PBR’s. Another problem is the human factor. Typically the person doing this analysis is a junior position compiling the information from a different city in Canada. The tendency is for them to spend more time on the large urban areas and less on the smaller cities.
And lastly, a vacancy rate of 2.6 per cent implies an accuracy of one-tenth of a percent. Given the inaccuracies, variety, and sample size in the Victoria data that’s optimistic. However, if the only source one has for rental data is published by CMHC then you have to go with what you’ve got. A vacancy rate of 2.6 per cent for Victoria and rents for one- and two-bedroom rentals becomes a “good enough” estimate.
The article notes that there’s a cliff in new multi-fam rental construction, once in-progress construction is done. Ron Butler’s podcast, notes the same phenomenon in the GTA and GVR. Does this mean that the rental market will be content and balanced for the next 3-5 yrs, then feel a squeeze again, assuming in a few yrs, population / immigration picks back up? And for the GVR, while it seems there’s mostly purpose built rentals happening, will that put pressure on prices for the SFH and duplex market?
Nowhere in your article do you mention that the CMHC rental condo vacancy rate is almost ZERO (0.1%) and hasn’t improved at all. And that all of your rental stats have chosen to quote only the PBR (purpose-built) rental numbers), without acknowledging that. PBR’s account for less than half of all rentals in Greater Victoria.