November: Buyers are optimistic as sales stay elevated
The market started picking up in September, detached went on something of tear in October, and November brought continued strong activity, this time more broadly across all residential property types. Make no mistake, this is nowhere near the frantic market conditions we had three years ago, but it’s a sharp change from where we’ve spent most of the last two years. No doubt rates are a key factor, though recent uncertainty has driven the bond market back above 3% (until just a couple days ago). While there’s no indication that the Bank of Canada is pausing their rate cutting cycle, bond yields are no different than they were this time 2 years ago and the real estate market was crushed. This time, perhaps buoyed by optimistic projections of falling rates and a continued strong labour market, buyers are far more enthusiastic.
Of course the potential for black swans is always there (arguably heightened), and recently there has been a lot of sabre-rattling about tariffs. Brenden Ogmundson – chief economist at the BCREA – recently modelled the potential impact on the Canadian economy if the threatened 25% tariffs were to be enacted. Inflation up, GDP down, and rates rising in response. All bad for real estate. Personally I doubt Trump will actually go through with such a self-sabotaging policy, but I think we’re likely to be in for a fairly volatile policy environment in the coming years.
Source: Brendan Ogmundson, LinkedIn
Buyers are certainly not concerned, and when looking at sales relative to the historical range, we’ve essentially gone from a very slow market to roughly average.
The increase in sales in October was mostly about the recovery in detached sales, but condos and townhouses picked up in November. Now all three are close to the level they were at before rates increased. In fact townhouse and condo sales are well above their long run average for this time of year, while detached sales are right at that 20 year average level.
In September and October a record level of new listings activity kept inventory pretty stable and held the market at a still relatively balanced level. However new lists started to falter a bit in November, coming in 7% lower than this time last year, and back to roughly average levels. Depending on a record rate of new listings to keep inventory stable was always a precarious balance, and that may be starting to crack. I still think there’s a good number of sellers out there that have been frustrated at the slow market and will try listing again in the spring. That should keep overall new listings levels pretty healthy next year, but new lists are a factor in the market that has never exhibited any clear patterns or relationship to market conditions, so that’s pretty speculative.
We lost 325 listings last month but most of that is due to normal seasonal patterns. Not all of it though, and there was a small dip in seasonally adjusted inventory as well. The underlying inventory has been pretty flat for about 6 months now, but it’s going to take a lot of new listings to prevent a decline in the coming months.
Pricing isn’t moving a whole lot, whether you look at median prices, benchmark prices, or sales to assessment ratios.
Single family properties on average are selling at assessed value, similar to where they’ve been most of the year. Condo sales values have actually been a little weaker relative to assessment these last two months as we’ve seen some more of the stale inventory actually move. The takeaway from this market is not that prices are taking off, but that increased activity is eating into the buffer we’ve been building up for the past couple years. Right now we have enough properties on the market and frustrated sellers to absorb that demand, but it’ll be interesting to see what happens if the demand is sustained into the spring. That trajectory of the market is shown in the indicators of market conditions, both of which are heading in the direction of favouring sellers. No one knows if the trend will continue, but months of inventory isn’t high enough that we can sustain that trajectory for very long before prices respond.
I’m not fully convinced the market will break upwards for the reasons I discussed last week, but the persistently strong employment picture in Victoria is a bullish sign. While the rest of the country’s labour market has weakened substantially, Victoria is still hanging out at barely over 3% unemployment. And that’s not because of old people, that’s the rate for prime working age adults (25-54). Meanwhile Vancouver is nearly twice as high and Toronto cracked 7%. In fact Ontario in general is really suffering with too many people and not enough jobs. The immigration reforms should help those markets, but again it’s clear that it just wasn’t as big of a factor over here to start with. Past downturns went hand in hand with weaker economies which weighed on consumer confidence. That just hasn’t happened yet this time around.
Westerly, it’s all buyer beware. Some realtors or companies seem to use the total square footage model which can include unfinished spaces as well as porches, patios, garages, whatever. BC Assessment usually has the “real” square footage or a close approximation. Floor plans can help but I find they can sometimes be misleading as well. You used to just be able to look up property taxes but I think you need an account now. It would show the breakdown including sewer taxes, parcel taxes, whatever is included. There’s no apples to apples really. Each area can be very different and property taxes sure are higher for the same assessed value in some municipalities. Property taxes are often wrong on listings depending on the time of year. It seems like the mls is only pulling that once a year and it’s often months after the new property taxes are on bcassessment before they are updated.
Almost comical to see economists try to predict broad stock market moves. ICYMI market bear David Rosenberg had an epiphany: maybe the AI boom is legit and markets are fairly valued.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-david-rosenberg-my-epiphany-and-why-this-bull-market-may-not-be-as/
He’s been at this for decades. I remember him writing bearish commentary during the lows of the 2008-09 crash. This stuff is almost unreadable/ unusable. Kudos to him for publicly changing his mind but even better would be if he said “actually I have no idea wtf is going to happen, but a buy and hold strategy usually works out”.
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2024/12/02/november-buyers-are-optimistic-as-sales-stay-elevated/#comment-123085
I invest primarily in US ETFs. The banks I use custody assets, in separate investment companies so my assets will lose no value if the banks I deal with roll over. I hold no savings in any bank. I only owe them money on mortgages and the occasional heloc. The closest thing I have to savings is a chunk of BTC.
The whole point of a black swan is to build a robust life so that when the inevitable happens you are safe and given that between residential and commercial RE, stocks, BTC, small business, and startup investments, I am probably as diversified as I can be, so yeah, I’m good.
If I held only Canadian stocks or Canadian real estate, I’d think differently though.
A couple questions regarding listing details:
1. When did the house Sq footage start including balconies, garages etc? Or does it? It looks like the secondary advertised # excludes some of these but not sure. I thought Sq foot always excluded non-livable space – Is there a standard metric? And,
2. Regarding property tax, if there is a community sewer tax (such as in Sooke, where it is serviced), is that included in the advertised property tax total? How does the advertising compare if you’re looking at a community where water and sewer are included in your utility bill. Just wondering if we’re comparing apples to oranges – even if we’re talking road apples. Thanks
Would that surprise you? Is this the black swan you speak of? How about your entire savings account? What if Edward Jones gets caught with their pants down? Or CIBC Wealth Mgmt? TD Wealth Mgmt? Scotia Wealth Mgmt? RBC Wealth Mgmt? BMO Wealth Mgmt?
Do you have a protocol in place for that black swan?
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s latest attempt to topple the minority Liberal government in a non-confidence vote failed on Monday, thanks to the New Democrats.
That’s a loser’s hat trick.
Just get a cattle prod.
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2024/12/02/november-buyers-are-optimistic-as-sales-stay-elevated/#comment-123076
Net debt is a fraudulent accounting measure designed to placate the masses who don’t understand that if the measure was actually meaningful, Chrystia could raid the CPP to pay off federal debt.
Modern Monetary Theory and the National Debt
https://youtu.be/XC5vdEhlhbI?si=Hz3NL62O7Z67SUt7
Max , yep I think it’s now looking like it’s going to be 50 points, good for the boc for getting it right . I’m going to have to push my way into the opens . Voracious spring market around the corner. ( no fomo pump lol )
Did you notice the two Sysco electric trucks? Looking forward to the day more of the short-haul trucks are like that.
Hey Thursty, only two more sleeps until the next super sized rate cut!
The federal government owed a total of C$977 billion in debt. Of this amount, about 70% is held by Canadian institutions such as banks, pension funds, and insurance companies.Jan 9, 2024.
https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/caution-required-when-comparing-canadas-debt-to-that-of-other-countries-2024
Trump isn’t even in office and already the Russian backed Syrian regime has fallen and Assad now lives in Russia. I think the communist world leaders actually fear him, the possibility of peace breaking out in the middle east and Ukraine would be the best thing for global prosperity.
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2024/12/02/november-buyers-are-optimistic-as-sales-stay-elevated/#comment-123071
It’s happening and while the catalyst is external, the impacts are primarily Canadas fault.
We built our entire economy around Real estate and DEI nonsense and now we are super vulnerable and indebted when what is probably a black swan for most people hits us demanding a productive economy that respects US laws and borders.
It’s not really a surprise if you’ve been paying attention.
I certainly hope so, but I’m not convinced it’ll be that easy this time around. I think he’s going to at least try it out as a way to raise revenue.
I don’t think so. He made similar threats while renegotiating nafta, and then signed a very similar agreement usmca. All he’s looking for is the optics to be able to say he’s signed the best agreement in the history of the world. The content doesn’t much matter.
I’m pretty worried. Trump doesn’t understand how tariffs work. He is an airhead who thinks he is the smartest guy in the room which is always a dangerous combination.
I think the “strategy” is to use tariffs against countries that trump thinks are ripping off the USA, because they have a trade deficit and he doesn’t know what that is, but it sound bad to him.
Framing it as a border/security issue is just meant to get around the need for congressional approval.
I think we are in some trouble here.
peter, couldnt agree more
As I said, I’m not “too worried” about these tariffs, I think it will work itself out. And I also think Victoria RE will do well and that next spring will be strong – think I’ve been saying that here for a while
Peter , with interest rates dropping like a rock and sales on a tear I would say the future is rosy . I can’t c trump derailing that imo
If 25% tariffs or anywhere close actually came to pass, as an exporting nation we would go into deep recession, and everything including little old Victoria real estate would crash. But I agree tariffs of that magnitude will probably not come to pass. Probably we’ll see some initial tariff imposition, coupled with carve-outs for oil & gas and some other stuff, and maybe a residual 10% tariff on other goods, until we’ve “complied” with nebulous demands. And something like that we can weather, in my view. So yeah, I’m not “too worried”…[crossing my fingers]
Even if you have ten million a million is a lot.
Borrowing a million to buy a house is pretty uncommon. To get a mortgage of a million you’d have to have at least 300k down and a family income of 260k – so top 1%. https://thekickassentrepreneur.com/household-income-percentile-calculator-for-canada/
Almost 60% of Canadians own a home. 57% of homeowners have no mortgage. https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/programs/research/financial-well-being-mortgages.html
Average value of a new mortgage is 338k. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1202969/average-value-of-mortgage-loans-canada/
I’d suggest that many households buying one million plus houses have a lot of equity from another home/inheritance or family help.
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2024/12/02/november-buyers-are-optimistic-as-sales-stay-elevated/#comment-122961
There is a big difference in both the effort to achieve and the outcomes from earning and investing to get a million in liquid stock and playing with a million in debt the bank is trying to use to enslave you.
Most Canadians insensitivity has more to do with them being a part of conversations where people use the word million and loan agreements with that on.
If you don’t have I would suggest at least $10MM liquid, 1MM is a lot of money to you whether you think so or not.
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2024/12/02/november-buyers-are-optimistic-as-sales-stay-elevated/#comment-122974
If you follow the Shiller PE 10, you have missed out on some major returns. I am a pretty technical guy and love using math and reason to analyze and sort things out and found it shortly before Schiller won the Nobel. Using it to not invest probably cost me hundreds of thousands by rationalizing myself out of investing entirely from 2008 – 2012. I get looking at past earnings and todays price but not only does it use reported CPI which is not very precise and inherently politicized, todays stock prices are based on tomorrows earnings anyway.
I’d pay more attention to the fact that the S&P forward PE’s are relatively stable between 20 and 29 (which is +/- one std dev). We are at 24 today and declining because despite the large ramp up in stock prices over the last year, good companies are successfully capturing inflation and nominal profit growth (and future profit growth expectations) is rising faster than that.
As long as governments continue to borrow from themselves by printing money, yesterdays earnings adjusted by yesterday’s inflation are not a good measure of todays’ prices.
Exactly where? For someone whose whole purpose of posting seems to be falsely promoting fomo with no regard to facts I do not believe a word of it.
Vicre, wandered into 1 over by clover point, there really isn’t anything out there I would be interested in . Going into the spring there’s going to be a real shortage of good inventory, and with a 50 point cut on Wednesday, look out
AI is still just an aper, it mimics and executes commands. Its real danger (I think) is in being co-opted and used to bad ends (like someone hacking in to a system). But that’s not too different from other technologies that can be co-opted for evil purposes. Also I do think it can be insidious in how it moves wealth up – like it does that too efficiently and without humans really noticing. That’s a real problem now (I think).
@tbone I think that is good poem. I can send it to my friend who teaches poetry to be sure but it does seem very good to me. Doesn’t AI work by following rules? So, is it able to violate rules to do something intentionally bad? Like it’s a weird concept. Anyway if it violates all the rules then it will probably end up doing something good again because it will make a pattern. Either way that to me is a good poem about having a hard time writing (not a bad poem).
“ Where was this, i didn’t see many opens today”
It may have been a powerful drug
Hallucination.
Anthropic was co-founded by a member of my field btw. 🙂
Where was this, i didn’t see many opens today.
“Something that fascinates me about AI is how it can not perfectly mimic humans because of our imperfections. Like can Chat GPT write a bad poem?”
Dee, just for you.
The sky is blue, the grass is green,
A silly rhyme, a silly scene.
I tried to write, a heartfelt verse,
But ended up, cosmic curse.
The words don’t flow, the rhymes don’t fit,
A poet’s plight, a dreadful pit.
I’ll try again, another day,
And hope my words, will find a way.
You could be right, however you must take what the Chinese government says with a grain of salt because there is a lot of missed information and propaganda coming from them, for example, China down play/out right denial of where COVID originated from and put the entire world at risk.
I’m quite skeptic of Chinese AI advancement and claim, because in the last couple of days there are reports that Huawei among many of Chinese firms has laid off 50-100% of their IT departments specifically AI development. The reason is that China technology sector can’t compete against their peers, and is losing money because they are cut off from TSMC. Chinese AI server farms are several generations behind the West because they have to work with older 7nm technology. (add: TSMC will be rolling out 2nm chips in 2025).
The EV Cybertruck folks of South Oak Bay and East Fairfield were out in full force supporting fossil fuels on Saturday night with their kids. They were all waving and cheering on those big light trucks not only mostly running on diesel, but running generators to power the light too! It’s almost like their eco values are tied what’s fashionable, or convenient to themselves (many were talking about their Xmas flights to Hawaii being already booked).
I also don’t understand why we aren’t drilling more and pumping out natural resources. The market for oil/natural resources is global, if people don’t buy CND oil they will buy Russian oil, etc. If we pumped more and were richer you could put that money back into things like EV rebates, etc., so everyone can drive a Cybertruck – probably better spent than Russian financing a war with their oil revenue.
Not trying to pump real estate , just keeping it real. Opens today was standing room only , must have been 200 shoes out front . There was a air of fomo desperation, just saying
Drill it, pump it, and sell it!
Something that fascinates me about AI is how it can not perfectly mimic humans because of our imperfections. Like can Chat GPT write a bad poem? And, don’t he puzzles that ask us to select all bikes (for example) work by looking at the imperfections in cursor movements that humans make?
I’m not too worried about AI (yet). It seems very good at some things and still bad at others.
Even better. Atleast it’ll be quick.
“Well, that marks the end of the human race itself…Including you and your children!”
Not quite ready to throw in the towel quite yet Max, but let me scare you a bit more. Just a few days ago, OpenAI’s new reasoning model called 01, was caught lying and deceiving to bypass a prompt from a red team of programmers.
“The reality is that, overall, global trade has contributed to our prosperity. While the benefits have not always been shared equally, specialization from freer international trade has made us more productive and has given us lower-cost goods and services.”
“While freer trade—in both exports and imports—makes us better off, the opposite is also true. Barriers to free trade, such as tariffs, have a negative impact on our economic well-being.”
Rather naive Groot. Free trade is not necessarily fair trade. It’s an elusive concept to which Canada is not immuned.
>>According to Eric Schmidt, ex CEO of Google, China has just released a new reasoning AI model that is on par with OpenAI’s most powerful. To say the least *** he was shocked! ***
According to chatGPT, these 6 products have large language AI models at or above openAI (chatGPT). (See below) They are from 4 countries, one being Canada. The point being, we should expect most countries including Canada or China to develop their own AI products at a high level. And no one should be “shocked” when this happens.
I expect many Canadians already know the university of Toronto played a pivotal role in the development of large language models (LLM) like ChatGPT. ChatGPT says “ The University of Toronto (UofT) has played a pivotal role in the development of large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT through foundational contributions to deep learning and AI research. Key connections include: Geoffrey Hinton’s Research…”
The leading large language model (LLM) platforms comparable to OpenAI’s offerings are based in the following countries:
1. Anthropic: United States. 
2. Google DeepMind: United Kingdom. 
3. Mistral AI: France. 
4. Cohere: Canada. 
5. Meta’s LLaMA: United States. 
6. Inflection AI: United States. 
These companies represent a global presence in the development of advanced LLM platforms.
Well, that marks the end of the human race itself…Including you and your children!
“I think you haven’t been keeping up with world news, and giving China way too much credit.”
QT, perhaps it is you that hasn’t been keeping up with world news? According to Eric Schmidt, ex CEO of Google, China has just released a new reasoning AI model that is on par with OpenAI’s most powerful. Only a few months ago, he stated in an interview at Stanford that he thought the Chinese were at least 2 years behind the US. To say the least he was shocked!
Let’s get real here. The future is not in human labour, in fact it most likely will be a burden to productivity.
Currently this is our number one trading partner. I really don’t see a surplus on the horizon anytime soon!
Sounds like a plan!
Rather than focus on one country’s trade deficit or surplus with another, it’s more informative to look at a country’s overall trade balance with the rest of the world.
The reality is that, overall, global trade has contributed to our prosperity. While the benefits have not always been shared equally, specialization from freer international trade has made us more productive and has given us lower-cost goods and services.
While freer trade—in both exports and imports—makes us better off, the opposite is also true. Barriers to free trade, such as tariffs, have a negative impact on our economic well-being.
I honestly couldn’t agree anymore!
Diversify our trading partners to ease the reliance on the US, and drill baby drill, open up and ramp up natural resource mining and processing, and put a stop to the NIMBY culture so that we can be a reliable supplier/partner to the rest of the world.
I think you haven’t been keeping up with world news, and giving China way too much credit.
China finally admitted that they missed represented their GDP growth in the last 3-4 years at an accumulative of 10%. Their youth (18-24y) unemployment rate is reported to be 21.3% officially and likely much higher unofficially. Fresh university grads can’t find employment and are being forced to work for less than Chyna minimum wage, many established professional are having their salary cut as much as 70%, held back as much as 20 months owing, and that including public employees. And another caveat here is that companies are firing/forcing 35 years old to retire and they can’t find new employment due to age.
So what do you suggest?
How so?
I’m not an economist but any tax and road block on trades will increase the price of goods thus will devalue the currency where the goods coming from. It is like a forced clearance sales.
Exactly and they control the USD as well as most of the intellectual property, therefor they get to set the price.
Another point that many people missed in the conversation, and that is the US is the largest market in the world that accounted for 29% of global consumer spending and 26% of the world economic activities. It mean that the US can practically stand on it own economy and everyone else depends on the US economy, or as Trump put it leaches like Canada to the tune of $100 billions a year.
Perhaps, one might want to take a look at the current Chinese economy to see how their economy is in a death spiral with noway out, because they can’t create enough internal consumption to drive the market.
Could Puerto Rico be on its way to becoming the 51st U.S. state?
Puerto Ricans on the U.S. territory headed to the polls and voted in favor of becoming a state. While Puerto Ricans are U.S. citizens, they cannot vote for president, but did voice their opinions on the future of the Commonwealth’s political status.
The Puerto Rico Status Act would need at least 60 votes to break a Senate filibuster, which analysts are highly skeptical will occur. With Republicans poised to take control of the House in January, the measure appears to be a last-ditch effort to pursue Puerto Rican independence or statehood. The GOP generally doesn’t vie for Puerto Rican statehood, likely because of how the move might add more Democrat voters to the national electorate.
Could Canada then become a Commonwealth?
Let’s face it, even the most radical right winger in Canada would still be a pussy to a Texan. Canada would just be a North Puerto Rico.
https://youtu.be/LUoHbOBUwbs?si=DBm1oAQzvt9ZmXT0
A strong U.S dollar will not be good for exports , throw in 25 percent tariffs other nations will reciprocate with and I don’t think anyone will be doing businesses with the U.S . China might come out on top lol
Join the BRICS Nations.
Max, I agree we have been here before . I think tariffs or the dollar will have little or no effect . If trump wants all that manufacturing back he still needs to sell it to the rest of the world too. Hmm tariffs
Unfortunately everything we import must be paid in USD, weather it come from USA, China, Mexico, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Australia, EU, or Indonesia, etc…
Awesome, perhaps the lefty mayor will take Hawk Tuah Coin for a salary and pension plan payment.
It could be good for tourism. What exactly do we import from the US that we can’t import from somewhere else anyway? Other than oranges.
It would be a logical move, however I don’t think most of the populous like the idea, including me. To me it make more sense to remove our ties from Britain governing system completely. Rewrite our laws and governing system to suit a more logical and democratic way without 900 years burden and convoluted rules/regulations instead of joining the American.
Vancouver mayor Ken Sim declares he took the “orange pill” a few years ago, and is firmly in the camp of “bitcoin is the future, fiat is going to zero”.
Interview is here: https://youtu.be/kxYggQVcG2E?si=7AgdfoBTRBKLC4hz
He points out Vancouver home prices are unchanged from 1995 to 2022 when measured in price of gold. (950 ounces).
He says bitcoin is better than gold, and is exploring ways that Vancouver can incorporate bitcoin into the city. Seems like he’d be happy to see Vancouver becoming known as a bitcoin city, with a strategic reserve etc
It is good to have a positive attitude, but I think overall it will be hard for Canadians as a whole. $0.60 will not be good for Canadian because fetching less USD for the same amount of work and supplies. To put it in another way, all goods that we sell will be at a steep discount and all import will be at a heighten price.
Yeah, give everything East of Saskatchewan to the US.
Mt tolmie, the republicans wouldn’t want us , Canada would be a big blue state lol .
The obvious solution is to join the US.
Start the negotiations by asking for 10 states, but settle for 8 (Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, and PEI get amalgamated).
Any support for that?
Tightening our border from drugs and migrants doesn’t seem unreasonable to me. Reports are that Trudeau has promised to do exactly that and has already begun with increased aerial surveillance. Thank you Mr Trump.
qt, it will be fun to watch to c how he will manage to pull it all off. I myself am not too worried and it could be good for our real estate market. A 60 cent dollar will be good news for alot of business in Canada
Dependence on 1 partner for trades never is a good thing, and every single politician hasn’t done anything to change the narrative since the inception of Canada.
I don’t think there is any different this time around because tariffs has always been Trump strategy. And, the writing is on the wall because Trump makes good with his pledge in the previous campaign promise to rip up the NAFTA agreement and did so before he left office. Therefore, tariffs is not an empty threat.
Nice to c Canada is in good company as trump goes about telling everyone he’s slapping tariffs on they products . What bluster
Other than raw materials, we don’t make anything China needs.
I don’t really care if we export everything to China and halt trading to the US altogether. Whatever it takes.
Okay, I’ll bite…
When America makes the rules, it is an American based order, which is substantially different from International Law based rules:
“Universally accepted principles of international law include the following: that a state will respect the sovereign equality of all states; that a state will refrain from the threat or use of force against another state except in self-defence…” -The Canadian Encyclopedia
Just double check, they list everything on the website if it has updated or changed since I did mine.
Really? I’ve never tried to dispose of this stuff myself so maybe I won’t need the paper. Ty
I didn’t run into any disposal requirements for old ceremic tiles and mortar, they were only concerned with old linoleum and drywall/plaster for asbestos at the dump.
Yes I heard about keeping it damp by misting water so any asbestos falls to the ground. Either way we need to get it tested for disposal purposes so we will start there. The easier path is to just keep it as it is but I am hoping to have the tile match our future floor tile in our kitchen.
Thank you everyone. It’s a bit tricky because there’s tile on the floor part and i can see that there was carpet that was removed so there’s a gap and i can see under the tile that there’s older tile. There used to be two small fireplaces both of which together were responsible for heating the entire house via coal. Then, one was removed in the early 90’s when the attic was converted to a suite (with permits on title). Part of the reason we bought this house is because it’s a unicorn of sorts being very old but requiring very little layout changes to make it functional and appropriate for modern living. A fancy designer told me – if you want to save money buy a house that doesn’t need walls moved then update everything but leave layout the same. That’s what we’ve done mostly.
Not sure if anyone read this article: https://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/david-sovka-renovating-my-kitchen-and-other-questionable-life-choices-9839679.
I had to feel sorry for the guy because his obvious mistake was not hiring a designer. I hire a designer for big changes and they always end up saving us money. They also often know the order of things so yeah it’s worthwhile. We will for sure hire one before doing our kitchen as that’s a big reno. The lady I use know will do a 2 hour consult where she walks around and we chat – basically to make sure I’m not having any bad ideas that i will regret later and giving me technical knowledge about space for pass throughs and such. Her 2 hour consult costs just under $600. Definitely worth the $
Or you can just be cautious with an unknown by masking around the work area with some poly, keep the work area damp to knock any dust down, and wear a respirator.
Another solution is to boxed over the existing fireplace and retro fit it with an insert accordingly.
Yes, that’s it.
Dee, yes u can get the tile and the adhesive tested , probaly wont change the outcome . Asbestos was used as a binder and was the replacement for horse hair .
The real context is that this wasn’t the primary point of the latest discussion. The primary point was Maggie’s over-reaction to QT, and how that’s reflective of a mindset
We had the plaster tested and yes there are horse hairs (!!!) and no asbestos. Problem is I can see that the current tile is on top of some other tile which I’m guessing is original. Is asbestos the only concern? I can get it tested. Is that it?
n/m
As of January 1, 2024, asbestos abatement employers must be licensed to operate in B.C., and anyone performing asbestos abatement work must be trained and certified.
https://www.worksafebc.com/en/about-us/news-events/campaigns/2024/January/licensing-certification-for-asbestos-abatement-new-requirements
A better example might be a country like Hungary.
But notice: providing evidence and engaging in a policy grounded exchange is far more convincing and useful than attributing hostile motives and mind reading.
Well being from 1910 I think it’s horse hair in the plaster . So now you’re down to the adhesive or the tiles where there could be some asbestos, and that won’t be a high risk factor if any
Three full days is not short term exposure. I’m guessing she lives in the house?
Would you want to breath asbestos fibers for three full days?
As the context makes clear, that means countries committed to a rules-based international order.
Or do you think we are being unfair to North Korea, Russia, or Iran?
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2024/01/08/december-signs-of-life-to-end-the-year/#comment-110184
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2024/01/08/december-signs-of-life-to-end-the-year/#comment-110185
Maybe I’m beating a dead horse here but Costco is great deal for most consumers.
They get most of their revenue from memberships, not from gouging customers. And because the US allows large retailers to force producers to sell to them at hefty discounts, most of the price savings come from this massive competitive advantage over smaller retailers.
Now we actually don’t shop at Costco personally, but for obvious reasons that a lot of other people share.
For us the time value of money is key. When you have young kids who don’t sit still for 45-60 minutes of driving back and forth to Langford, and who drive you nuts when you try to race with them around a big box store nabbing grocery deals, trust me you’ll happily shell out a little more money to get those 1.5-2 hours of stressful weekend time back. Honestly, the best thing the pandemic did was to create a market for ubiquitous grocery delivery services.
But, let’s be honest. We’re also fortunate to have in-laws with a Costco membership who have loads of free time and a big SUV and who are happy to do twice-a-month Costco runs so we can benefit from some of the best deals for meat, cheese, nuts, seeds, olive oil, canned goods and TP.
Once asbestos has been disturbed, it typically settles within between 48 and 72 hours, so the answer to how long asbestos stays airborne is that it can remain airborne for up to three full days. No level of asbestos exposure is considered safe for any type of asbestos fiber.
https://www.airpf.com/how-long-does-asbestos-stay-in-the-air/
“demo the tile surround”
Less thinking. More action. Let’s do it!
1910 is lath and plaster I’m guessing , should come off fast and most of the plaster too
Only one way to find out.
Sometimes old thinset had asbestos in it, so best to take precautions when pulverizing unknown materials. And use a hammer and chisel to remove the tile (or better yet, a hammer drill).
It’s not really fun.
Does anyone know if it might open a can of worms if I were to demo the tile surround on a very old fireplace (not in use). I can see that there tiled over old tile which I’m guessing is original. We want to put in an electric insert. Thinking of removing old tile but really not sure what might be under. House is 1910. Is it a health issue? I’d like to do it myself with a little sledgehammer. Fun. Or not?
While it is true that there is no hard rule, and we engage economically with all sorts of countries which are culturally very different from Canada, a quick search finds many trade references to “like-minded” partners. Here are three:
Canada will build influence among our partners and allies in the region by increasing our diplomatic engagement, forging connections between like-minded countries… -Global Affairs Canada;
Since 2017 Canada’s economy has become more dependent on trade and our trade has become more concentrated on the U.S. market…At the same time, Canada should work with like-minded trading partners… -Stuart Culbertson [a former deputy minister in the government of B.C. He served as B.C. trade representative];
Canada also plays a leadership role in WTO reform, including by chairing the Ottawa Group of like-minded WTO members… -GoC International Trade & Investment
Canada already has an embassy in Vietnam, they can’t handle economic development. Sounds like more unnecessary government bureaucracy. It never ends.
There is nothing valid about it, it’s simply absurd. There is no such rule. We engage economically with all sorts of countries which are culturally very different from Canada, for example South Korea which is a major trading partner.
Not to mention China which is also a major trading partner, and one which a lot of people think we should have fewer dealings with. Oh yes and lets not forget Vietnam which our government is promoting trade with.
I want this on a shirt.
To further balance the Costco talk, I love it and my wife hates it. Just wish I knew someone I could split the membership with cause it’s just the two of us in our household.
The economy is parasitic on it’s own in so many ways – take Realtors for example. Many G jobs are created to stop abuse. The recent hiring spree has been in part an attempt to get ahead of the retirement expectations. Seems people aren’t retiring as expected and so G has to cut back.
The key here is that government jobs aren’t “created” through economic activity, economic need, nor do they add to productivity. They are predominantly parasitic economically.
A term used by people who really really want interest rates to be lowered by a Central Bank.
It seems there is a belief among debtors that if enough people believe financial markets/stock traders are really really sure that short-term interest rates are going to drop a certain amount, the central bank will do their bidding.
As a saver who doesn’t leverage investments, I’m tired of the bellows being pumped to avoid an economic reset. In America, they had a reset in 2008 and are in full recovery now, whereas we keep kicking that can down the road.
“45,000 out of 51,000 jobs created in public sector” Right about now the Feds are cutting all sorts of term, aux, acting, and other employment. BC has to be next. BOC reducing interest rates at the same time G’s are releasing employees could be good for export related businesses (and GDP). Unless, there’s actually a 25% tariff or two coming… Hmm
Marko, I’ll give you .25 for sure, maybe and hopefully .5 (not baked in imo, have to keep the US in mind). 100 BPs would be fantastic – that would be a savings for us somewhere around $10K / year, but I’m not budgeting for it.
The boc has its job cut out for them . There’s alot of moving parts right now , unfortunately the dollar will probaly get shnickered in the end
min 0.25% – 100%
0.5% reasonable probability for sure. Jobs report this morning was not good. 45,000 out of 51,000 jobs created in public sector….not sustainable without serious consequences on the economy imo.
Usually “baked in” refers to upcoming costs or changes in various expected but somewhat unknown financial changes have been accounted for as a near certainty. I’m not sure .5 is ‘baked in” but the drop won’t surprise me.
I also don’t buy bitcoin, does nothing for my investment style. That said, if I had a crystal ball a few years back, I could now be on a beach somewhere warm.
What does that mean it’s baked in?
No. Its already baked in .50 next week. Followed by .25 cuts every rate decision throughout 2025.
If you don’t like bitcoin don’t buy it.
I’m still betting on .25 next week.
Bit coin is so weird.
100%. 👍 X 10.
Maggie’s self-righteous incivility is what ruins so many comment platforms.
QT has a valid opinion about our economic prospects when s/he comments about Canada’s self-righteous rule about only engaging with “like-minded” countries. The last week has shown that our export based economy needs all the trading partners we can find.
On the discussion about TFSA returns from earlier. Here’s why those 10-14% annualized returns are fairly precarious. They have been built on strong increase in valuation ratios, not just fundamental values of the companies.
This is my house. I paid $225k for it in May of 1998. I was 25 years old, it was in my affordability level at that time. Its a humble house, its not all that, but its built like a brick and I do all the maintenance myself. Now if I had of rented this house for the past 25 years it would have cost me $2500 per mo X 12 X 25 = $750,000 (never to be seen again).
We got married in the living room of this house, we have three faithful dogs buried in my back yard (we have a fourth new puppy) and we raised two kids. That to me is the most valuable thing of all. Owning a house In those times was not only freedom. It was considered an investment, meaning if you sold you would get back what you put in, plus a little bit more in tax free gains.
No one expected the price acceleration. It just happened.
Click on the pic for a clear view.
Well it just keeps getting better and better by the day. Love it!
It’s looking good for a 50 bps cut next week, 68% chance…
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/odds-of-jumbo-boc-rate-cut-boosted-by-jump-in-canadas-unemployment-rate-164728754.html
“Markets increased the odds of a 50 basis point rate cut from the Bank of Canada on Friday, from 55 per cent before the report came out to 68 per cent, according to Reuters. A 25-basis point cut is fully priced in.“
4). Put 3-5% of monthly income into bitcoin.
A hamster in one of those globe rolling balls would probably be the easiest.
Max- A cat would be much less hassle.
>> 3). I would then buy a gently used Ford Transit Courier, buy a small dog, rent a 1 bed brand new PBR and live happily ever after!
How about…
4. Put every spare nickel I have into bitcoin.
>>> Can you provide the link, because I saw 4.8%.
Statcan search is hopeless, seems almost random how /where they post their data.
Ya the big bust just never happened , bouncing off the bottom and into a busy spring market a cometh
If I were a 20 year old male in today’s world…
1). I would get snipped. Keeping my eye on Tinder for a female that just wants to hangout from time to time.
2). I would then earn my stripes in the trades to apprenticeship level, take advantage of the full sponsorship through the Ministry of Skills, Training and Labour along with EI and get paid to attend Camosun College for the four years of prescribed training as a registered apprentice (no student loan debt). A plumber for example just doing service work would never be out of work in the greater Victoria area and making bucket loads of money along the way.
3). Put 3-5% of monthly income into bitcoin.
4). I would then buy a gently used Ford Transit Courier, buy a small dog, rent a 1 bedroom, brand new PBR right beside Costco and live happily ever after!
The SFH inventory in the core is very limited even above 1 million. Majority built before 1940 and/or in poor condition.
It must be very stressful to be house hunting in Victoria these days.
Yep , a million bucks is just not a lot of money anymore . Wouldn’t it be great if Vic was more expensive than Vancouver. This is coming coming from someone who still considers himself a vancouverite lol
Can you provide the link, because I saw 4.8%.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410028701&pickMembers%5B0%5D=1.11&pickMembers%5B1%5D=3.1&pickMembers%5B2%5D=4.6&pickMembers%5B3%5D=5.1&cubeTimeFrame.startMonth=07&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=2024&cubeTimeFrame.endMonth=11&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2024&referencePeriods=20240701%2C20241101
This is exceeding seasonality imo. A 2 bed 1 bath sold in the Oaklands area a couple of days ago for $931,000 in multiple offers. Earlier in the year there were options in the 800s and actually one went in the 700s.
Isn’t it typical to have low inventory this time of the year, and SFH below $1 million is a rare thing in the last couple of years?
IMHO, we are not going to see any SFH under a million soon in the near future, perhaps as soon as next summer or spring of 2026.
>> Victoria unemployment rate down to 2.8%
Awesome. “Full employment” is considered a rate of between 3-5%. Under 3% is called “overemployment” , and supposedly will lead to inflation, underproductivity (from less qualified workers) and an “overheated economy”.. Compared to the alternative, …. Let’s Bring it on!
“ An unemployment level below 3% is often referred to as “overemployment” or “tight labor market conditions.” This situation indicates an exceptionally low unemployment rate, where nearly everyone who wants a job and is qualified to work is employed.”
SFH freehold inventory below 1 mill down to 23 with 4 of those priced at 999k.
Okay, thank you. Still lowest in the country, as you noted.
victoria has been an awesome place to park your money in real estate the last couple of years. i am always abslutely stunned how good we have done on employment here. Canada should be able to ride the great wave that is the USA next year, so our future is rosy.
+1 Nan. We probably get half our groceries from there; when I get sent I usually go right about when the kids have gone down, arrive around 2000, and am at the checkout line within 20 minutes. They allow us as a family of five to spend well below the national average for a family of four while eating pretty well!
Sorry, prime age 25-54 employment to match the chart in the article above to take out influence of students / retired folks
To balance the Costco discussion, Costco is the absolute best. I recover the entire membership fee in savings in one monthly trip and get it paid back again at the end of the year in cash back so the ROI on that membership is probably 1,300%/ year.
If you shop at Walmart, you are approximating most of the prices from a different angle but if you shop at any Canadian grocery store (Save on, Thriftys, Loblaws etc) you either are not price sensitive, aren’t paying attention to the prices or just don’t eat very much. There is no comparison price wise, compared to Canadian stores, prices in Walmart and Costco are up to half off most things and where prices are equal in Costco, quality is always higher (beef, chicken, etc.)
What is unpleasant to me is paying too much and I can’t buy anything from a regular grocery store without feeling ripped off anymore. I picked up and put back a 200g $6 bag of chips yesterday in Thritfy’s while picking up a roast chicken (which at 14.99 was also almost double the 8.99 Costco price) because I just couldn’t justify spending $6 on 200g of chips that would get 4-5x the same chips at Costco for 2x the price. While the crowds are annoying, the prices are great, the checkout is always super fast and you can save another $20-30 taking the family for a hot dog after as well. Just no beating it and we need at least one more on the peninsula if we could only get that deal worked out.
What is your source for the 2.8% figure? I am seeing 3.7% in today’s report.
Leo, national home prices are off 15% from the highs in 2022 after covid. My point was that real estate firm always predict price increases, show me one where a national firm prdicts prices will fall.
Victoria unemployment rate down to 2.8%. Lowest in the country. Edit: This is prime age employment 25-54 to match the chart in the article above
I remember when people were mocking Phil for predicting prices will stay stable or rise after COVID. Turns out he was right. These are all just guesses so I wouldn’t take any prediction seriously.
It would be very unusal for home prices to rise during a recession with rising unemplyment
https://thecanadianhome.com/blog/the-domino-effect-how-unemployment-could-topple-canadas-housing-market
What a shock, a real estate company predicting price increases. Take a look and see how well these perdictions worked out for people who listenned to Phil Soper
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZDC9Rp_zy8
Ugly jobs report , maybe a 50 point cut back on the table, I’m liking that. Also Royal lepage predicting prices up 6 points next year, I’m liking that
Be good for your mere listing business!
I agree with all those comments, it’s an unpleasant shopping experience. We’re probably pretty unusual Costco shoppers – we only go maybe 4 times a year. But we find even one trip saves about enough to cover the membership. Especially in a US Costco where you can buy wine!
I also find Costco overwhelming and unpleasant. But my in laws go and get us some basics from there like laundry detergent, dishwasher pods and a couple other things. So really even less motivated to join the madness myself.
I went into a Costco ~20 years ago. A trip to the dentist would have been less stressful. No desire to ever go again. Don’t care how good the pricing is. And I don’t really need a 40kg box of Froot Loops. Felt like a warped experiment of hundreds of mice in a maze looking for the on sale block of Gouda.
Metro Windsor, ON with about the same population has just one.
Costco is a waste of space. Maybe the high cost of land in Victoria makes it impractical to build another one. I would never pay a yearly membership fee for the privilege to shop anywhere. If they built a 20 storey apartment above that massive warehouse, that would make sense.
So basically no equity if you had to sell 🙂
This one assumes 25 year and then 30 for uninsured. Also uninsured gets higher TDS ratios which is part of the reason the income required goes down after 1.5M (and smaller mortgage of course)
And 300k hhi can get a 1.43m mortgage assuming no other debts?
Metro Halifax with roughly same population as the CRD: two Costcos.
Saskatoon, population 317,000 (way less than the CRD): two Costcos.
Comox Valley, population 77,000: one Costco. Imagine how not-busy that warehouse is compared to ours. Welp!
There’s another .2 % added to the premium for cmhc insured premium if 30 year amortization. So 4.2 % instead of 4% in that case.
Well at a property price just under the cap at $1,499,999
Minimum down payment would be $125,000
That is 91.7% loan to value, so 4% CMHC fee = $55,000 which can be added to the mortgage
Total mortgage: $1.43M for about $7600/month at current insured rates.
And our $1.50 hot dog is the best value in the world.
Betcha the city of Langford isn’t.
This is me.
Betcha Victoria is the worst city in Canada for Costcos per person.
Ikea is about 1 per million population. Two in metro Vancouver last I checked (Richmond and Coquitlam). Just one in all of metro Ottawa including the Quebec side.
Breathing the air on a bus would make me puke!
What I don’t like is the indoctrination at public schools. I find they push the trans agenda.
So $250k income could qualify for either:
– max $1,200k home with $100k down (mortgage $1,100k)
– or –
– max $1,500k home with $300k down. (Mortgage $1,200 k)
So they qualify for $100k more mortgage? Since they’re putting an extra $200k down. Seems reasonable.
Terrible stock of houses in Fairfield and oak bay very sad lot . I think I will go sit at the penny and drink my sorrows away
Introvert – if Costco is your love, you live in the right country. Canada is apparently #1 globally in Costcos per person
–
Must be two different Umm really?s posting here
Every parent should read the book “Anxious Generation” – https://www.anxiousgeneration.com/
Basically, let kids play freely outside and be ultra controlled with anything screen based. Opposite is happening right now and we have an anxious generation.
Lol… Maybe if someone goes out to Costco the same way they shop at a corner store and what kind of sucker buys things they didn’t intend to buy? I would assume most folks maybe hit Costco on a 4-6 week timeline and know exactly what they plan to buy there (really doesn’t add to the opportunity and time cost especially if it lined up with another trip out to the western communities). Anyways, why would anyone drive out there, I assume most people in the core would just use the Insta Cart option? Same with Berryman Farms, the convenience of inexpensive deliveries is a huge time saver and just brings the better prices right to you.
+1, super cool. What is the CHMC premium at $1.5 mill?
Geez anyone with a property that’s barely touching 1mil should unload it now before the competition increases in that squishy segment.
That’s a wild plot Leo!
The upcoming increase in the CMHC cap should benefit those households earning just over $200k who don’t have 20% down the most. They can then qualify for a property into that somewhat softer part of the market just over a million. Of course they’ll have to pay the pretty steep CMHC insurance cost, but hey just load it on the mortgage
How do we have the population for 2 Costco’s but 0 Ikea’s (and 0 lrt – I’ll let that one go).
Costco is far more expensive for someone from the core when you factor in the value of your time, given most peoples limited free time, and the fact that they buy stuff they didnt intend to buy when they went there.
Patrick spening time with your child riding bikes or taking the bus is also special and teaches them to be independence and promotes a healthly lifestyle vs relying on parents to drive them places.
If by perfectly safe you mean you didn’t get hurt that is great. Biking in Vancouver is not, statistically speaking, perfectly safe. Bussing is way safer.
Time for my semiregular reminder that, based on population, Greater Victoria should have at least two Costcos.
The Bay should be out of business soon, hopefully we can a Costco at one of those locations… Or at Oak Bay Marina.
Not to drag culture wars into this too much, but Maggie’s response to QT was sort of hyperbolically insane and an excellent example of why so much of what gets called “woke” ends up being self-discrediting.
As to coddling, yes, there’s too much. Well-founded self-confidence is a wonderful gift to our children.
Maggie , that’s a bit of a stretch. An opinion is not hate speech
> Yes the risk is never exactly zero, but we need to let kids develop those skills
It’s not about the risk. I always enjoyed “drive time” with my kids. A nice opportunity for some one-on-one time. I wouldn’t have given that up so they can learn street skills on their own. They grow up fast enough as it is.
I don’t hate trans people, in fact my favorite niece is trans and I still love her the way she is, just like before she took hormone transition therapy. However, what I hate is the culture of wastage where we waste precious time and tax dollars on gender/race identity haggling and ecological bragging instead of focus on the important issues at hand such as poverty, housing, economy, and peace on earth.
Totally agree. Reminds me of the guy who let his kids ride transit by themselves and the MCFD fought him for years. Wild. Yes the risk is never exactly zero, but we need to let kids develop those skills https://globalnews.ca/news/7145065/vancouver-dad-appeal-kids-bus-alone/
Okay, we get it. You hate trans people, and all of our economic problems are their fault. Maybe now you can shut the fuck up about it.
Switzerland same. A handful of parents would drive kids to/from school because coming from much further away or on commute route anyhow. Not the norm. Lots of pretty young kids on public transit or walking thru town
Especially so if you value your time at zero.
I know too many people who drive their kids to school and pick them up every day or most days. Another sign of excessive N American coddling.
I don’t know. We do really coddle kids here in Canada. In France they were pretty shocked when I asked if I had to be there for after school pick up. Can’t speak for rest of Europe but I’m France at least they do seem more independent. And in Prague I saw kids who looked 8-9 on subway alone — which we, as Canadians, found surprising.
I agree, but if you give kids freedom they can travel longer distances to school. I myself use to ride my bike from West Bay to Central Middle School for 3 years, 2 years from RJH area to Spectrum Community School, and 4 years everywhere around Vancouver from East Van, and many years after that from Victoria to the surrounding area as far as Sooke and Sidney long before bike lanes existed.
Have a doctor check out that knee, it seems to be jerking uncontrollably.
You are absolutely correct modern self centered culture that must create safe space everywhere and anywhere for our prince and princess, that we impose and demand others to follow our lead. We demands that every country that want to have a relationship with us have to follow our human/genders rights at UN meetings, and every world economic forums that we can get at, and now we have to deal with the outfall.
Heavily doubt this stat, but can’t access the source book. Anyway, sounds like we need to allow a lot more housing near schools so people can bike or walk there. This was likely the #1 criteria for our house. Walking distance to all three levels of schools.
>> Perhaps one might want to look at the culture of cuddling where parents drive their kids to and fro school, instead of give kids room to be independent and walk/bike themselves to school like the EU and Japan?
It’s not just a North American culture thing. The world has changed…. “ Across the globe, the percentage of children that walk or cycle to school has decreased from 82% to 14% within the last 30 years. https://ecf.com/resources/cycling-facts-and-figures
Perhaps one might want to look at the culture of cuddling where parents drive their kids to and fro school, instead of give kids room to be independent and walk/bike themselves like the EU and Japan?
I and my siblings walked/biked ourselves to school in the 80s and 90s, and it was perfectly safe without bike lanes or complaints. And, it was perfectly safe for me to bike from East Van to school and work back when I was in university.
Traffic was at a complete standstill this morning for at least 800 meters in front of campus view school drop off and uvic vs European school, doug ford would say we just need to build more roads and remove bike lanes to reduce traffic cogestion.
Maybe not much of a problem for some, but it will hurt the pensioners and many young families because food, fuel, and everything else will cost at least an additional 10%.
And likely to be weaker after January 20th if Trump apply tariffs, plus the additional carbon tax increase in the new year.
I think BoC will play it safe and cut 25 bps rather than 50. Maybe a bad jobs report on Friday will sway it toward 50 though.
Dollar is too weak for a cut now. As well, they will likely factor in the upcoming rule changes on the 14 Dec to the housing market. BoC will likely hold the next two announcements and see how things play out.
I’m also thinking it’s 25 points , but maybe 50 points if they fear trump will be be too disruptive to the economy, maybe too early to blink . I think we have to get comfortable with a 65 cent dollar next year . I wouldn’t have a problem with it
Re cybertrucks: I got passed by one (my first) while cycling home on McKenzie yesterday. Then, moments later, I passed him..
Halifax legalized rowhouses/townhouses on formerly single family lots, and looks like they did it properly
Wowser. No wonder record number of people are using food banks. Good on people like max that donate regularly.
The rate announcement is next week. I’m guessing a .25 decrease. Anyone else?
The walking distance blueberries the other day…
But you can pay for that truck and gas in what you save by driving it out to Costco instead of walking to Thrifties.
We saw a cyber truck in cultus lake in august. First one I’ve seen on the road. There’s a lot of extra money in cultus lake so not that surprising. Saw one again the other day driving north out of Victoria.
I agree that the car obsession is cultural. We are seriously considering spending half the year in Portugal or Spain when we retire. Pretty easy to retire in Portugal especially. I speak some spanish so that would make Spain easier in one sense but Portugal seems to welcome retirees with open arms. And then get PR there. We will see, it’s still a while away.
I was being sarcastic, I have not ordered a Cybertruck – it is 3x the cost of my Model Y so I’ll pass but crazy how many are already on the road at $168k….curious to know what everyone does for a living.
+1, I’ll take a central condo over spending a decent chunk of my life in a car but the SFH obsession is just a bit too strong in North America.
Marko you should do Uber rides in your cyber truck. My son would pay a pretty penny to get a ride in one of those.
I also love living centrally. Like I said the bus ride from langford was a rude awakening. But on the plus side at least it was relatively clean and didn’t feel like I was about to get mugged or stabbed (unlike the bus in Winnipeg). It just took way too long. Living in Langford would be fine if I worked out there and kids had school out there. There’s nothing wrong with it from what I can see —-it’s the commute.
But it is the case that there are many people content to sit in their cars for 2+ hours a day. I’m just not one of them.
Marlo, how could you stand the cold, most people feel it’s to cold to walk or ride your bike for at least 4 months of the year in Victoria, so much nicer in a vehicle stuck in traffic.
You are right, I’ve ordered a Cybertruck for such transport 🙂
Clearly a tall tale. Everyone knows that buying $150 of groceries is impossible without a 3/4 ton pickup to transport them.
Chatted to a friend today who owns a real estate brokerage in the US with 260 agents….says nothing has really changed with the new cooperating commission rules….buyer’s agents submitting the equivalent of our free agreements to sellers with offers…..90% of the time accepted as is, 9% of the time agent is satisfied with counter (seller will counter a 3% coop request down to 2% or 2.5%) and 1% of the time buyer is chipping in for the shortfall. He said had a deal a month ago where seller would “only” pay 1% coop and then the buyer chipped in another 0.5% to his agent.
He says majority of his agents don’t even phone before showing anymore to find out what seller is “offering.”
Freehold SFH core areas down to 25 active listings….lowest number I’ve seen in a while.
I’ve been underassessed by 200-300k for 5 years now….not calling to complain 🙂
I had to do showings in Langford 3pm-5:30pm on Monday, the congestion just within Langford is becoming a little too much for me personally. I am definitely spoiled living in the Songhees. The other day I was doing some filming for my YT channel on the Songhees Walkway, and I assumed I would have to take multiple cuts but managed to film a 4:40 second video walking on a sunny afternoon without an oncoming pedestrian 🙂 Bought groceries later in the day on foot.
An LRT would give the encampment people another place to sleep.
The legislature and tourism, homeless encampments, etc.
Every November we go to Costco and drop a grand on our earthquake preparedness pantry. Every November we then drop off our previous grand worth of canned food and sundry items from Costco to the local food bank. It helps us rotate our stock and since I have a GMC 2500, V8 Vortec, 6 liter, 4×4 pickup truck with an 8′ box and 4600 kg towing capacity makes the delivery super easy.
Edmonton and Calgary have oil money. Victoria has flowers.
“Dee, I can’t decide which of these ideas is more ridiculous? Let’s call it a tie.”
Exactly the problem.
And that all just gets past onto the customer. Do you really expect a small business to just eat that expense? Think again!
All these idling truck drivers sitting in traffic trying to deliver the groceries to your grocery store is not going to show up on your grocery bill? Just so 1% of society can enjoy bike lanes is absolutely absurd!
“I think / hope that an LRT on the patty bay hwy is more realistic than moving all govt to Nanaimo.”
Dee, I can’t decide which of these ideas is more ridiculous? Let’s call it a tie.
Lol. To hell with you. WTF do mean take back? I hope Doug Ford rips up all those bike lanes in the City of Toronto! And sets a Provincial/Federal standard in the process!
https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/doug-fords-government-pushes-through-law-restricting-bike-lanes/article_88a98c58-ab51-11ef-81e3-db0ff7ee35cd.html
I think / hope that an LRT on the patty bay hwy is more realistic than moving all govt to Nanaimo.
Totally. Lets pack everything into mile 0 with only two ways in and out.
Nanaimo would be the best fit forsure.
Both Calgary and Edmonton went to LRT when their populations were about 500K, not much more than metro Victoria today, and their densities were not higher than metro Victoria then, or even now for that matter when they have twice that population.
Goverment needs to stop doing big projects, they are real losers to getting anything done even reasonably close to what they say .
Like wise, I do not understand how infrastructure projects are done on time and within budget all over the world and in Canada past, but currently it is almost impossible to get anything done in a timely manner and on budget. Take the blue bridge replacement for an example, it was originally estimated to cost $35-$40 million, and it took a decade to complete and cost a whopping $109 million. If we apply the same principle of the blue bridge to the LRT that traverse the island from Nanaimo to Victoria, then the cost would be astronomical and would take longer than the ancient Chinese to build 21,200km Great Wall of China.
The way traffic congestion is growing we won’t have to worry in another decade or so as we will just go back to riding horses.
https://youtu.be/4fYGvgd3pyU?si=qwKo2qWo9Yka83K7
QT I never said carless utopia we just need a better balance of cars vs other choices.
Latest large loss in real estate today as seen in globe and mail.
993 Antler Dr., Unit 102, Penticton, B.C.
Purchase price $950,000 (May. 2022)
Asking price: $699,000 (Sept. 14, 2024)
Previous asking price: $1.025,000 (Sept. 7, 2022)
Selling price: $679,000 (Oct. 21, 2024)
Buyers got burned in the Okanagan before the forest fires smoked them out.
Also buyer would have paid land transfer tax, several years property taxes, monthly maintenance fees, real estate selling fees, there is a very real possibility that buyer lost 100% of their investment.
If mexico can build the tren maya that goes through the yucatan penninsula why can’t we figure out how to build even a single track of LRT that goes up and down the Patricia Bay hwy? I don’t even live there it’s just nuts to me that there’s such an obvious corridor for it — with the space — and sill more and more people are moving there with traffic becoming worse. And especially because it connects to both ports in to victoria. It’s madness.
As for Trump, call it groveling personally i think he likes his bromances. He wouldn’t respect someone where the groveling isn’t more of a mutual fondness. So perhaps PP is better positioned than someone else.
You can dream of the car less utopia society all you want, but the reality is that high density cities are expensive to live in, and locating most if not all of the city employment in a worst possible location that is impractical for infrastructure expansion lead to traffic issues and housing costs that we are currently facing.
The solution to traffic problems isn’t moving the problem to another community like Duncan or Nanaimo it’s to make driving less attractive and encouarging people to try alternative transportation options or make less trips. The easiest thing to do would be to charge drivers based on their distance driven but since that won’t happen for a long time than building bus/bike lanes at the expense of closing car lanes is the obvious solution as well as increasing not decreasing the carbon tax. Change is hard but there is really no other option. Were lucky to live in a place where you can get around by bike all year round yet I would say less then 10% of people ever consider that as an option.
Before someone says that elderly handicaped people can’t be expected to ride a bike or take a bus to their medical appointments I’m not saying that everyone has to ride a bike or bus everytime but It’s time that we take back our cities from roads and cars.
I believe that Trump believes (as reported) that it is possible to balance the budget by imposing broad-based tariffs. If the motivation is to try and balance the budget via extortion (as ridiculous as that sounds), I’m not sure it matters what Canada does.
PP needs to be careful. About the only way I could see him losing the next election is if he manages to create the impression that he is taking Trump’s side “against” Canada.
As for JT, if Marco Rubio can grovel his way back into Trump’s favour, then so can JT.
I agree that we will need to substantively address some US concerns. But with Trump the grovelling and flattery will continue to be equally important.
Rapid transit, LRT, building up for high density are just bandages, because places like Hong Kong and Singapore housing are too expensive for 90% of the population due to high density. The populous can’t afford to live in the city and many commutes 2-4 hours or more daily to work.
A commonsense plan to deal with Victoria’s traffic woes.
“The problem is that Victoria is a government eccentric employment city, and most if not all government & businesses are concentrated in the worst place of all James Bay.”
Actually the problem is the same today as it was back in the 1980’s when LRT was first conceived for the region. The population density of the region is not close to the level needed to support LRT. The best we can hope for is a network of rapid buses operating primarily in dedicated lanes. This is the program being implemented now.
The problem is that Victoria is a government centric employment city, and most if not all government & businesses are concentrated in the worst place of all James Bay.
IMHO, if the government and populist are serious about infrastructure and alleviates traffic, then all government offices including the legislative must move to Nanaimo, Duncan, or move off the island completely. The current inadequate piecemeal and bike lanes planing are definitely not working, and it is going to get worst going forward because the lower Island immigration is net positive and will be far into the future.
Toll highways are fine…. No issue for user pays. Actually needs to happen with declining gas tax revenues. Road user fees will be coming anyways. If we want to bring down costs, they can get rid of those community benefits agreements, preferred union contractors and go back to an open bidding process for infrastructure.
How about a South Island railway strategy at a fraction of the cost?
Where’s the strategy for a South Island highway strategy? (Oh wait, you’re suppose to add population with the eco zealot traffic policies) I guess they figure the Galloping Goose with ebikes can handle the extra Sooke traffic.
Probably not. Updating bylaws to allow small scale multi-unit housing is a must under the Local Government Act, and the Act gives the province override powers if a local government does not abide.
….us pulling Ukraine into NATO is not going to happen.
Note that the government isn’t “stepping in” as the headline implied. They are “reviewing the next steps with their legal team”. Of course they’ve probably already reviewed those steps with the legal team, so it doesn’t sound good that they are just announcing plans to do the same thing. Probably the legal team has already told them that a legal process could take years if Sooke fights it. So instead they’ve just gone public with this interview reported in time colonist.
Sooke population rises by maybe 400 people per year, that’s about 200 homes per year. Seems too small a fish to fry.
“The province plans to step in to force the required changes and its legal team is reviewing the next steps, Kahlon said.”
Was chatting with a couple of folks yesterday about the need for better infrastructure. This after I took the bus all the way from langford to center for the first time. It took way longer than it should have because the bus was just in traffic with all the cars. So annoying that we won’t invest into anything like LRT or sky train or anything. I mean, look at the Patricia bay highway – there’s obviously enough room for a train that just goes up and down it that would connect to a bus to the airport and end at the ferry. Bananas how car minded we are.
Then again if it got too easy places like Sooke might get over run with densification.
Who knew that Sooke would be so naughty?
Province to step in after Sooke votes down bylaw changes to boost housing
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/province-to-step-in-after-sooke-votes-down-bylaw-changes-to-boost-housing-9902832
Why wait for tariffs, just boost the price of all our products, and demand payment in U.S. dollars.
JT probably (?), but Trump already views him with disdain, and PP is more likely to actually agree with some of Trump’s policies.
But I have to give Trudeau credit for going to Mar-a-lago at all & for taking this seriously.
I am not pro-Trump, but I think some of America’s “asks” for Canada are quite understandable. I don’t know enough about the border issue, but I think on defence issues, Canada has been a freeloader, and Putin has shown us that hoping for a post-national Pollyanna world is not going to work. Hope is not a plan. We have to step up, as we have done many times in history. To do that, we have to prioritize away from $250 cheques and get serious about serious issues.
Also, personally I’d be just as happy to see our supply management system for dairy etc disappear. On other issues like softwood lumber, I think American actions over the years are obnoxious.
One way or another, we have to find a way to get along on the major points, and we all have to deal with Trump now whether we like it or not. Yes, it’s unsettling. These tariffs would be a very big deal even if they only get implemented in part. I think right now, markets are too sanguine about all this.
How does any of this affect Victoria RE? Well, pretty indirectly, if & provided the tariff threat is more bluster than real.
A “Tale of Two Cities”
Great article Leo. The statcan table of unemployment in the 25-54 age group is very interesting. Victoria is tied for Quebec City for the lowest unemployment in the country for metro areas. As you pointed out above , there is indeed a big difference in Victoria vs Vancouver unemployment.
When we compare Victoria unemployment to Vancouver , it is a “Tale of Two Cities” …
Vancouver unemployment has been worsening for the last 6 months, and is now 5.6.
Victoria, on the other hand, has unemployment improving steadily for the last 6 months, and has fallen to 3.1, far lower than Vancouver.
As seen in the StatCan chart https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410037801&pickMembers%5B0%5D=2.8&pickMembers%5B1%5D=3.1&pickMembers%5B2%5D=4.6&cubeTimeFrame.startMonth=06&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=2024&cubeTimeFrame.endMonth=10&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2024&referencePeriods=20240601%2C20241001
Superior is an interesting property. Not to build a new home but to assemble with the adjoining home(s). However that’s a long shot of a gamble in this market. The property doesn’t make sense as a rental property. Yet people have certainly paid more than this asking price to live on a busy street in this neighborhood. James Bay has always be a quirky neighborhood. You just have to find the right buyer that wants specifically to live in James Bay and that might mean a longer listing period even when priced close to market value.
For that reason pricing aggressively under market value may be the right choice as it brings attention to the property and hopefully multiple offers to drive the price up. I’m going to give the listing agent four out of five stars in their marketing plan. Would have been five if the home had been staged and had a better thumbnail.
I was asking Groot.
Yes (although not super relevant to my comment)
Do you own a detached in the core?
We have heard of the trump bump . But today we are seeing the Leo bump, sales just picked up today after Leo’s positive vibes layed out in todays market assessment.
Not even sure what the hell that is supposed to mean. Most people just wanting a secure, comfortable place to live. Are we supposed to be “declaring victory” if house prices rise or “admitting defeat” when they fall?
If you own a paid off SFH in the core, you have already “won”, at least in the material sense. And if you own a SFH in the core, but are up to your neck in debt then keep hustling and it will probably work out fine.
Trump’s a classic bully. He could punch us in the face (tarriffs) but his main thing is having us grovel and beg not to be punched. Who will be the better groveler – PP or JT?
487 Superior
A bike lane, busses, traffic & a busy intersection; to some a bonus, and to others a detriment.
Could this 17.5% price drop over 2 & 1/2 years be a mortgage-renewal caused sale, like some people forecast seeing more of?
Vicre, agree , I wouldn’t give any level of government more than u need to . They will just waste it on useless crap .
Higher end looks pretty stagnant to me, although that’s just browsing the MLS site. Much better “value” now than during the covid frenzy.
Here’s a good example of the trend in the last 30 days:
4700 hillwood – Sold 25 days ago for 1.095
4695 hillwood -Sold 4 days ago for 1.3
Sure there are differences to the actual house but these are both un renoed 3000 sqft+ houses on on large lots next to each other in Broadmead, not sure I see a 200k difference between them as far as product goes.
I don’t know about you thursty but I am gearing up to appeal my assessments again lol. I feel taken advantage of giving money away to these tree conservation coordinators that Marko knows!
If you own a detached home in the core, it may be premature to declare a victory. November was unusual in terms of what types of homes were selling and where they were selling.
One month does not make a trend so no one can be sure if what was seen in November will continue into the spring. It’s not often that we see a change in buyers’ preferences.
What came to my mind after briefly looking at the data was that prospective purchasers may be suffering from price exhaustion when it comes to detached houses in the core and rather than hold off from purchasing are substituting lower price alternative housing such as stratas and houses in the Western Communities. Again this is only one month, without several months of data to determine a trend, this is a very speculative opinion.
However, Thursty could be right that detached house prices in the core could be poised for a substantial increase in the spring as those that sold their stratas are flush with cash for a larger down payment and are waiting for the change in the CMHC rules from a million to 1.5 million. Then what we should be seeing now is an increase in mortgage applications for detached homes in the core as well as an increase in bridge financing.
18,000-sqft lot. No interior photos. One window always open (I pass this house a lot). I’m trying to imagine what it looks like inside.
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/27641753/1901-san-juan-ave-saanich-gordon-head
All good news, wasn’t much of a downturn and the opportunity to grab a home in the lull appears to be closing . All in all good news for real estate and investors .