October: Detached makes a substantial recovery
As discussed last month, the market set up and achieved a big outperformance in October. In fact with 654 sales, activity was 61% above last year’s total, even stronger than my estimate of a 30-50% increase.
Now back in the day, the real estate board used to spend a lot of time spinning the stats to make them look stronger than they really were. If the market was down it was surely on the verge of picking up (buy now before prices go up!), and if the market was active it was on fire (buy now before it goes even higher!). That has moderated in recent years, and I find that generally the board now has a pretty realistic assessment of market conditions in their monthly stats releases. With a 61% jump in sales, one could have forgiven some celebration, but surprisingly enough the release was pretty cautious in nature. The real estate board even went out of their way to point out the weak base effect from last year and that we’re now about at an average level of sales. They’re being so nuanced I actually think they’re underselling the market. Fact is – especially for detached homes – the market has seen a sharp tightening.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, detached sales in October are back to where they were before interest rates started rising, and that’s a pretty big increase from where we spent most of the last two years. Of course, back in early 2022 when the market was red-hot, sales weren’t actually that high because there was almost no inventory on the market (we have about triple the inventory now).
Condo sales didn’t move much from September, and are still substantially below their pre-rate-increase levels. All combined though and zooming out some more, you can see that sales are a good bit above the slow buyers market levels that we had a decade ago. No doubt lower rates combined with Victoria’s economy bucking the national trend with very low unemployemnt is leading to more activity.
If you’re not a fan of seasonal adjustment, below are single family and condo sales relative to their 20 year range. Single family sales, which have been languishing near the low end of the historical range for the last couple years have surged to average levels in just two months.
Condo sales have actually been somewhat stronger relative to normal levels since the springtime, but didn’t improve much in October. Keep in mind that sales are expected to rise overtime for condos (as more are built) while detached sales would be expected to stay more flat (and eventually even decline though we’re not there yet).
Despite an increase in sales, we didn’t sacrifice much inventory because of a strong rate of new listings. Both September and October marked a 20 year high for new listings at that time of year.
On inventory, we’re down in absolute terms from September, but roughly flat when adjusting for seasonality. It does seem like a precarious balance dependent on record new listings activity, but it’s not clear which way it will break at this point.
Prices for detached were up a little in October, while condos were down somewhat and townhouses unchanged. As usual, monthly changes in median prices are highly subject to noise.
Smoothing out the noise with a 6 month average, we’re still pretty flat.
The increased sales activity for detached properties didn’t lead to any change in pricing when looking at sales relative to assessed value. The median house sold for its assessed value, indicating values haven’t changed much in 16 months (assessment valuations are from June/July 2023). Townhouses were similar, while there was some weakness in condo pricing. At 4% below assessment, that’s weaker than we’ve seen the condo market in nearly two years.
Stable prices aside, fact is the market has tightened up substantially in the last month. Months of inventory is down after being pretty stable for the last year, and sales to new list ratio is up. Both signal the market has moved from roughly balanced to somewhat favouring sellers.
There’s also a new divergence between the detached and condo markets. Despite the condo market being hit by several regulatory reforms in recent years from changing rental rules to AirBnB bans, the market for condos and houses has been remarkably similar. Usually condos do a little worse in market downturns, but the sector has been stronger than I expected. That changed in October, with a sharp tightening on the detached side while nothing much changed for condos.
One month does not make a trend, but if you’ve still got your sights set on a house I’d be ready to make a move. During last fall’s market I figured the risk of further price declines for houses had evaporated, and one year later that view has only been reinforced. We have more inventory now, and prices usually don’t move much during the fall, but it won’t take many months of sustained higher activity to bring us back to a true sellers market on the detached side. I’ve written on this extensively in the past, but the price trajectories of attached and detached housing will continue to diverge. If anything it’s a trend that will accelerate. On the condo side, I still think affordability will have to improve further before we can see much change in prices. With a cooling rental market, the pressure on buyers to jump in is lower, while the investment picture continues to look mediocre. The big unknown is consumer sentiment. Has it turned sour like it has in past downturns or is it still positive due to a fairly good employment picture? Time will tell.
did extensive research on the windows myself while building out a brand new building. Based on the energy report, as Marko said the technical specs are very similar but it really boil down to what makes us tick: the sale person and their pricing.. In the end, it is the interactions make us ticks and making a decision on who we want to work with…
I received quotes from Starline, Plygem, Attera, and Centra.( priced from 20k to 27k same products- these are for 3 bed, 2.5 bath and full living room with patio doors cost around 1700 each for the patio doors) I didn’t bother with Milgard, as they’re known for high quality and high prices, including a premium for the brand name. I did asked them per sqft how much I am looking at, they told them, look man, you are buying a car, i am not going to tell you the cost of each part, and hang off on me)
Instead, I’d rather invest in a vapor barrier using Homewrap and super-duty Wigluv products. For insulation and any overlap between the roof, siding, or anything above grade, I also wanted to use Wigluv products. Unfortunately, many homeowners and builders aren’t aware of this product. You often see red or blue duct tapes around windows and Homewrap because people have used them for years. The reality is that they don’t understand Step Code 3 and 4 requirements for airtightness. Yes, they might pass the blower test, but in the long run, they don’t know the consequences if those duct tapes fail. There are no codes specifying which products builders should use, so quality and reputation are the only guides unless the owner specify their requirement of air tightness in the contract.
I also looked into skylight as one of own skylights at home failed and started leaking…
There are only two brands in our market, Velux and Columbia skylights(?). Both are great products and I was sold on the upfront spec by Velux: they specify rough opening upfront with all sizes so it makes really easy for homeowners or General contractors to install when making the cut on the roof.
The tricky part of replacing those windows is not about the windows themself but what is the plan to replace those vapor barrier, and how to seal those cladding ( where the job gets too big for most homeowners to handle them self)- yes, you can replace a few pieces of cedar boards and make a hole but what do you do when see severe deterioration of those black tar paper ???)
Also, do you feel comfortable climbing on the scaffolding just to remove those cladding so you get to replace the tar paper? or do you ignore them and feel cold air blowing in from time to time for those older homes..
if you happen to have stucco? do not get me started on patching those….
Re colours
There seems to be quite a pressure to have a house that is “on trend”. I am often amazed by how often people will paint just to keep up with the style even though many colours are not overly practical. Darker colours tend to fade a bit faster and often will require more coats of whatever colour you want to do next. Quality paint will last way over 10 – 15 years inside (I would rather not admit how long some of my rooms have gone since the last paint job but put the emphasis on the “way over” in the above statement.) My guess is that if you flip through a few house style magazines you will see all the same colours. The worst part is they quickly look very dated so it ups the pressure to paint whatever the next trend is.
New post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2024/11/11/does-canada-respect-veterans-our-housing-record-casts-doubt/
What was the ages of the homes you looked at and how were the windows? Thanks for the response. You can’t go wrong buying in Oak Bay, maybe sell one of your children. (If you don’t have any you could always presell, like condos).
Frank, I was sort of prepared for the sticker shock but the houses we looked at just seemed to be somehow unsubstantial and that is not the right word. One thing my wife noticed (and not something that is important) is why do they so often paint the house grey or have black kitchen cupboards. Along with the weather it sometimes felt like the pit of despair. The only one that had a bit of character was one in Oak Bay that really was a bit past our price point (the only reason that we have a price point is that both of our parents are paying for a large chunk (fortunately my parents really like my wife more than me). A couple of the houses had tenants in them and I plan on have a talk with the real estate lawyer who our friends recommended as to what is involved with getting tenants out. Not sure if it is always as straight forward as the agent seems to suggest. Any thoughts?
Hopeful- How did the search go? Any sticker shock, high traffic at open houses, trashed or unloved properties? What percentage of houses are move in ready? Wouldn’t be surprised if your price point expectations were not met.
Dennis Washington is also a Trump supporter. You know, the guy who says he’s opposed to imports from China.
Because it’s cheaper than building them. P.S. Seaspan is actually owned by an american billionaire (Dennis Washington). He sometimes parks his yacht at the inner harbour, its the one with the helicopter on the back.
Why did Canada’s Seaspan Corporation buy six container vessels from Chinese shipbuilding company Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding? The contract is the largest shipbuilding order settled in RMB in China this year. The construction of the vessels are scheduled to be completed and delivered between 2026 and 2028.
https://www.bastillepost.com/global/article/4255871-chinese-shipbuilding-companies-sign-large-contract-with-canadian-corporation
GDP is what it is. Not seeing where the problem is , economy is doing just fine
@Leo,
I assume you know the answer to this and that your question is rhetorical, but for those who don’t know, I would point to factors such as:
-overpriced housing;
-lacklustre investment in business;
-high taxation on economic activity;
-inefficient capital markets;
-uncompetitive industries (such as telecos, airlines and dairy, etc);
-over-concentration of economic activity and jobs in the public sector;
-over-regulation and under-investment in major industries that we are world leaders in like oil, gas and forestry;
-and just generally decades of poor policy choices that have been ignored by governments without any real political fallout.
I wonder what our excuse will be when population growth grinds to a halt.
Trudeau needs to go because GDP/capita has stagnated. Biden needed to go for the same but opposite reason.
Well I’m confused with all the chatter on this blog showing the US is going great meanwhile I hear the average American is hungry. So who cares if their GDP is higher if all the increases are going to Musk, Bezos etc. Still better to be in Canada ty very much.
Justin Trudeau needs to have been gone 3 months after he was elected the first go around but not solely for the reason that this silly graph eludes to. This is just low effort Pierre Pollievre Twitter misinformation that gets regurgitated on conservative subreddits. Real GDP between the two countries has been diverging for well over 50 years now. JT has just poured gas on the problem by spending money we don’t have as has most provincial and federal governments over the last several decades. The last federal finance minister that could make the tough don’t-spend-it-if-if-you-don’t-have-it decisions was Paul Martin.
When your core economic program is to juice population growth by bringing in huge numbers of low skill and low wage temporary residents in order to drive down wages to benefit uncompetitive businesses, it’s no wonder that we are falling further and further behind our neighbours to the south.
Time for a change…
Hopeful, alil late but they just knocked down 2 nice old homes on beach over by the gulf course. I think they would have been ideal
What I would look for:
-Engineered truss roof. No saddle in the roof even if you rip out every interior wall (on the upper level of the house).
-200 amp panel that you can still get breakers for…Square D.
-Copper wiring everywhere.
-Copper water supply lines everywhere.
-ABS drains.
-8″ foundation.
-Slab on grade.
Small practical tip when viewing homes, a lot of windows have the year of production stamped somewhere inside the two panes.
In terms of newer windows in my opinion the code compliance is heavily regulated for windows/doors and the delta difference in performance between the cheapest new Plygem windows (typical the cheapest you can find – produced in Alberta) and something super high end is relatively small.
When looking at older homes and you have a limited budget for repairs it may helpful to break down the repairs into categories.
1) immediate repairs required in the first year
2) repairs that should be done in the next five years
3) long term repairs and updates
Depending on how functional the current items are in the house, the items can lay in different categories.
The amount of money that you can spend on a house is wide. I would suggest that you consider the neighborhood when choosing what to spend on items. It will be very challenging to get a high price for your home after renovations if the neighborhood is mostly first time home buyers. The same for a middle income neighborhood. You don’t want to overspend on renovations so that the home is now out of the house range in the neighborhood. If you do so then your home is considered to be over built for the neighborhood and you won’t attract buyers looking in your price range. Buyers at your asking price will be looking in different neighborhoods which may lead to a longer listing period and a lower price for your home.
This is the mistake that home owners and builders make. They over build for the neighborhood. Its also the root of the problem for building missing middle four and six plexes. Trying to sell a property at Oak Bay prices for a property in Fernwood.
Still a pretty inexpensive upgrade for what you get in then end even if it’s not a full reno.
That especially goes for anything HVAC, furnace or heat pump. It seems the vendors and installers on the island have teamed up to add thousands in costs that just don’t seem to exist on the lower mainland. They seem to have a consensus not to compete with each other over here.
“don’t know about the folks that are saying windows are expensive. If you’re doing a complete reno…”
The folks are responding to a buyer who is NOT looking to do a complete reno.
Also, don’t be afraid to source pretty much anything that goes into a house directly from the mainland. You’ll be surprised on just how many thousands this will save you. The markup on the Island is insane. If your looking for anything cedar go directly to the Sooke mill.
https://www.looper.com/456884/the-untold-truth-of-big-timbers-kevin-wenstob/
There is also this product: https://www.homedepot.ca/product/m-d-building-products-64-inch-x-25-ft-clear-indoor-air-sealing-window-insulation-film/1001109994
It is very effective on single-pane and/or drafty windows.
Of course. Given the hardware these days and the all aluminum exterior along with the all wood interior it certainly does add a feel of luxury. Especially if they are a quality brand such as Pella. At the same time if your just going to sell the house in 10 years why bother. In 10 years the people buying it will just be happy they found a house.
It is true that wood windows require maintenance, but the flip side is that they will last forever. (Assuming you keep up with the maintenance.)
Increased knowledge is valuable, but ensure that it doesn’t lead to decision-making paralysis.
Properly working new windows in an old house adds a feel of luxury, especially if you open them frequently during mild weather. I hate fighting with old windows, add to that the zero maintenance, it’s a win, win. Spend the money.
You’ll notice that exterior doors have switched over to insulated fibreglass as apposed to insulated steel. For some reason the suppliers think that’s worth an extra couple grand. You can still get insulated steel doors for a fraction of the price and they are just as good. Yes, if you can’t install a prehung door you probably shouldn’t be a homeowner.
When hunting for an older house you need to distinguish between what is repairable and what is not economically repairable. This is the biggest mistake that a first time buyer is likely to make when buying an older home in need of repairs.
The distinction here is whether something is economically repairable keeping in mind that anything can be fixed if you are willing to pay the price. For example an old house with sloping floors due to foundation settlement or the lack of a poured concrete foundation. A house with a poor floor plan layout requiring the gutting of the interior, or a house that is in architectural contrast (too old, too small, handyman additions) with the neighborhood. These can be repaired but often at great expense. The cost of which, in absence of market appreciation, are not recoverable in the marketplace.
Instead of a house it is simpler for most people to understand the difference between what is curable and incurable using the analogy of a car. An old Ford Pinto that needs a new transmission which will cost $3,000. Even with a new or rebuilt transmission it isn’t likely that you will be able to sell the car for more than the money spent. In this case you would be better off finding a different car to buy.
Kitchens, bathrooms, roofs, windows, floor coverings, furnaces, hot water tanks, etc. are often curable items.
Sometimes buying the worst house on the best street is a huge mistake for first time house buyers. Yet stories abound about people buying such a home and selling it a year later for more. However they usually are not taking into consideration that market prices increased during their ownership. In some cases they would have netted more on the sale if they had done nothing at all to the property.
Surprised how many home inspections videos are out there. My wife and I are figuring that is going to be our viewing for the next wee (or two). Great advice, thanks. Anything I can learn helps.
I don’t know about the folks that are saying windows are expensive. If you’re doing a complete reno, windows are one of the best bang for the buck improvements that can be made at the 15k to 20k price points. They haven’t got out hand for costs like other trades (probably because there is ample competition). My windows went in in early September replacing 1950s single pane aluminium. Not only an immediate visual improvement, there was the noticeable difference for heat and cold, moisture, and most of all noise reduction. I feel the value was beyond what I paid for the service compared to other things I have done with the house so far. Now for rip offs, I don’t know where the exterior door prices are coming from nowadays. It seems like beyond the cost of materials and labour, contractors are trying to add on 5k or 6k in gravy on four or five hours of work (ended buying the prehung doors direct and installing myself).
When looking at older places I’m all about structural, the rest I’m not too fussed about . What u see can be replaced I’m more concerned about a saddle in the roof
DAP Draft Attack Caulking Indoor/Outdoor Removable Weatherstrip Sealant, Clear, 300-mL.
https://www.canadiantire.ca/en/pdp/dap-draft-attack-caulking-indoor-outdoor-removable-weatherstrip-sealant-clear-300-ml-0641029p.html
“we are just starting the house hunt so we are being shown a bunch of houses of various age”
Given that. I would put windows down low on the list of priorities. Unless they are totally pooched. Drafty windows and failed sealed units can be easily rectified. In terms of bang for buck in replacement for resale purposes. Don’t bother.
BTW. Thanks for bringing the conversation back to housing.
I’m with deryk. Wood windows are awesome. Although double hung windows have lots of potential draft sources. The R1 single pane glass is the least of the issues
I’m not a huge fan of replacing single glazed windows that are functional because of the cost of replacement and the length of time the new double glazed windows will last.
In general the new ones will last 20 -30 years. (depending on the quality. Depending on whether they are exposed to extreme weather etc.)
We had a large 1912 house in Victoria and it was going to cost $24,000.00 to replace the windows and that was around 20 years ago. We sold the house five years ago and the people buying it bought the house because of the character of the old house. It had a certain value and double glazed windows likely never entered the new owners minds. If we had went ahead with the new double glazed windows when we were considering it back then …. those windows would be just about past their prime. (Just like me:)
The last thing on my list today would be replacing older windows that are functional. If I was building new then of course install double glazed.
We live in a very mild climate.
Spend the savings on an updated bathroom instead. A grundgy bathroom will turn off a buyer… or yourself quicker than single glazed.
Fix any obvious things with your older windows. Put in wind seals. Replace a large window with double glazed in your main living area.
That’s just how I feel….after watching fads come and go over 70 years:)
I’ve watched people rip out old windows and replace them with single glazed aluminium. Then those were ripped out and replaced with double glazed. Then those were ripped out with gas filled ones etc etc.
If you do go with double glazed then go for the best you can buy.
Control excessive cold.
Why put on another sweater? Insulate your windows against the cold, with 3M™ Low-E Window Films. It’s like upgrading from single-pane to double-pane or from double-pane to triple-pane windows!
Reflect and disperse heat back into the room
Reduce cold spots
Improve comfort during cold winter months
Save on heating and cooling costs year-round with improved insulation
https://www.3m.com/3M/en_US/home-window-solutions-us/solutions/temperature-control/
Note: I have never used this product.
Start at the basic level.
Ask for the property disclosure statement from the agent. Go online to the municipality’s website and look for any permits issued for the house.
Watch a lot of home inspection videos.
Gosig, we are just starting the house hunt so we are being shown a bunch of houses of various age.
Thanks Max, sounds good. I am guessing that the problem with single panes is heat loss. I am wondering considering the middle winters whether the savings are going to be all that much considering the costs. Probably will not be in the house much more than ten years. Big lump sum of cash is a stretch at this point.
Depends on how old. If they are single pane they need to be replaced. If they are thermal pane look for fogging or condensation between the panes. Thermal pane panels can be easily replaced while keeping the original aluminum/vinyl frame in place by simply removing the exterior sash strips and swapping the panels. On a typical house this can be done for around 20k (far cheaper if you do the installation yourself) I would suggest Thermal King Glass.
https://thermalkingglass.com/
If they need replacement you’d be looking at retrofit windows. Meaning the exterior cladding and interior liner, trim and wall finish remain untouched. I would recommend Pella for this. They will custom manufacture each window. Typical house 35k-50k (far cheaper if you do the installation yourself).
https://www.pella.com/locations/bc/victoria/
“ In that light, when I am looking at houses , especially a bit older ones what should I know or be looking for in windows?”
How old are we talking? A LOT older 1910 with wooden double hung windows? Or a BIT older 1960 with single pane aluminum windows? Or something else?
Windows in older homes, especially in Victoria, will probably need replacing. Before going house hunting, go check on the prices and types of windows best suited to the environment. I’m not up on windows so I won’t offer any advice. If you want to really secure your property, look into rock glass, it’s unbreakable but very expensive. Include installation costs. Whatever you do, don’t go cheap. Budget $10,000-20,000.
I thought that this site was supposed to be about buying a house? In that light, when I am looking at houses , especially a bit older ones what should I know or be looking for in windows?
Goodnight Chatcaveat emptor.
Still want to live on the West Coast?
https://youtube.com/shorts/4QocMxR2wOE?si=M_CKkSF13H2rweBI
Goodnight ChatMAX
LOL. Your going to bank on that? Renter insurance? WTF? I can only imagine the adjusters thoughts on that claim.
What cyclist insurance?
Personal liability, part of most homeowner or renter insurances.
Stupid ICBC – why are they warning drivers when cyclists are the true scourge of pedestrians:
https://victoriabuzz.com/2024/08/nearly-360-children-injured-by-vehicles-every-year-in-bc-on-their-way-to-school-icbc/
And look at this dumb article – focusing on cars when bicycles are obviously the real problem:
https://www.surreynowleader.com/local-news/surrey-has-6-pedestrian-deaths-in-2023-as-icbc-marks-pedestrian-safety-month-6518254
My neck is Caucasian colour. And you should never assume.
What cyclist insurance?
Take the vehicle part out of the equation…Now what? The ebike operator kills or seriously harms the pedestrian with no motor vehicles involved. Just the ebike operator and the pedestrian. I’ll tell you right now the ebike operator is not covered by ICBC.
For me (and I assume most) that would be the personal liability coverage on my renter/homeowner policy. Ironically you might be better being hit by a cyclist vs a car with the same injuries because ICBC’s no fault wouldn’t apply to the cyclist’s insurance.
As a reminder: about 2 pedestrians per day killed by cars in Canada and about zero pedestrians a day killed by bikes
Cyclists and pedestrians that collide with vehicles or vice versa are covered by ICBC. https://www.icbc.com/claims/injury/if-you-were-in-a-crash-as-a-cyclist-or-pedestrian
Everything you just said is complete nonsense. If a cyclist seriously harms or kills a pedestrian…Wheres the insurance coverage? Again, who pays for the ambulance bill? And that’s just for starters! Seriously, they would have no option other than to civilly sue the cyclist and more than likely bankrupt them in the process.
“Can you sue civilly in Canada?
You can sue for different “remedies” in civil lawsuits. You may ask for the defendant to pay “damages” or money to make up for an injury or loss.”
https://civilresolutionbc.ca/
My god I think Leo must have created a redneck AI chatbot just to show the AI skeptics what is possible.
Where to begin:
1) The roads are public which means pedestrians and cyclists, drivers all collectively do own the roads
2) Cyclists – a category that has essentially 100% overlap with drivers and pedestrians – are taxpayers
3) Cyclists exceeding the speed limits? Most cyclists can barely hold the 30 km/h to break the limit in a school zone. Even on e-bikes only a handful of folks can hold 50 km/h. There is definitely a speeding problem on our roads, but cyclists area miniscule contributor at best.
4) The guy who proudly states he drives a GMC 2500 expressing faux concern for pedestrians. Pick up trucks are literally the most lethal pedestrian killers on the road
5) Jurisdictions that have had bike registration programs have largely discontinued them as they were totally pointless
6) “Mandatory ICBC coverage for anything on wheels using the streets of greater Victoria” – simply brilliant. Let’s not just pick on cyclists, we’ll also hit up Grandma on the mobility scooter
Terrible example. Is that all you have? The cyclists on the road these days far exceed the speed limit and they think they own the road. What happens when they smoke a pedestrian? Seriously, what happens when an ebike smokes a pedestrian. The pedestrian is clearly not at fault, who’s going to pay the ambulance bill? You can’t hear these ebikes and they go super fast. They should have to be insured through ICBC on an annual basis for road use. Lets level the playing field here. They should also have to pay an annual road use fee that is collected by ICBC at the annual insurance policy renewal .
They should also be ticketed with points added for excessive speed and undo care and attention. This must be paid in full at their next annual ICBC /Road use renewal. Noncompliance will result in prohibited road use and forfeiture of the bike. They should also have to pay for all these bike lanes the taxpayer has funded over all these years. Its pay back time…There is no such thing as a free lunch! Mandatory ICBC coverage for anything on wheels using the streets of greater Victoria.
Yeah. I own a 6 litre GMC 2500 3/4 ton 4×4 pickup truck with an 8′ box and a towing capacity of 4,854 kg. Its not jacked up or have cab lights mounted. I feel much more comfortable hopping in my truck to traverse the greater Victoria area than hopping on a bus (loser cruiser). To each their own.
While we are focused on creating useless government programs can we also licence all pedestrians and charge them a sidewalk and crosswalk use fee?
Mr Motorist equates anything that slows cars down or takes road space for other users to “punishment”
Today’s loser cruiser. Jacked up pickup with the cab lights mounted. Normal habitat – Langford
Great, a free pass to our friends south of the border, just gotta make sure they have their checkbook . Whatever it takes to ramp up house sales
That’s probably because they have dirt on them that’s about to be exposed.
Who would have guessed?
Americans upset about Trump win eye moving to Canada: immigration lawyers
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2024/11/08/news/americans-trump-move-canada-immigration-lawyers
Good!
Pushback may prompt rethink of plan to reduce McKenzie motor-vehicle lanes, mayor says
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/pushback-may-prompt-rethink-of-plan-to-reduce-mckenzie-motor-vehicle-lanes-mayor-says-9785618
If your on a budget, Colonial countertops. Victoria Showroom. 609 Alpha Street Victoria BC.
https://colonialcountertops.com/
They have both natural and laminate butcher block tops. If you go with the Matte finish square edge laminate you would never know the difference other than its super easy to keep clean and no maintenance.
I never found butcher block particularly high maintenance. But it is not no maintenance. Had a large square of granite inserted into an island for cutting and prep of some things.
Dee, quartz is the best of the bunch , and I think I have had every counter top material out there
I lived in a large city in Europe. Many people didn’t have cars or if they did they barely drove. BUT there is excellent transit including trams etc. I would like to see a movement away from cars and not just to bikes but to lrt or similar. It was a bit of a shock to return here and to see how deeply car oriented this culture is.
I also lived in a very large city in Asia. There were very tall apartment blocks and everyone lived in those (even people with kids). It wasn’t a big deal and as Marko says there are advantages. For example, everyone composted because it was so easy there are large communal bins that are shared for a group of 6-7 high rises. It’s fun also if you can gain access to the roofs of those tall buildings 😉 But, there are downsides. Like it was said that you can only see the sky one square at a time. I remember coming back to Canada and going to the prairies the day after i returned after being away for a year – the prairies seemed astonishingly flat and bare. It was SO cool – i felt like I was in the middle of a snow globe.
We are renovating our kitchen. I love the look of wood countertop (butcher block) but I don’t want something high maintenance. Any suggestions?
I don’t want to live in something that “isn’t too bad actually”. My work shop downstairs is 600 sq/ft and that’s too small.
Patriotz, what I have heard is that reducing the size of the Universities particularly the humanities is part of the goal in the first place. Outside of the stem fields a lot of Conservatives see the Universities as the center of Woke culture and support. Shifting financial support to the STEM fields and letting the Humanities implode seems to be a feature not a bug.
Of coarse, I dont know what they will actually do but I know a couple of fairly high up conservatives that see it this way. Come to think of it they sound a lot like a couple of the Trump guys when it comes to their view of the Universities these days. But what do I know, I was told and believed that Harris was going to win in a landslide. How could all my friends have been so wrong. And why was I so sure that they were right.
Totally off topic and I need to get ready to look at some houses and give up on the idea of both a vacation for the next decade and getting a newer used car.
This place is less than 10 year sold? The 1960s/1970s actual Soviet style complexes are often very nice in terms of urban planning.
If you read the comments in the YT video people who have lived there say it isn’t too bad actually. The one advantage of density I personally like is you can walk to everything.
They don’t have any such policy. Just talk about reductions without giving numbers. A cut to 5% would be disastrous for financing of higher education in many provinces, particularly Ontario. Many colleges and universities are in enough trouble now with the cuts that have already been imposed.
It should be noted that historically Canada had never had any caps on foreign students per se prior to the recently imposed limits. The real problem is first that provinces have increasingly used foreign students to fund higher education, and second that the feds have made it easier for foreign students to work and to obtain a pathway to permanent residency. That’s what brought on the surge in numbers.
There is a saying “when in Rome, do as the Romans do” for a reason.
People came here for the Victorian charm, and now a minority group of recent settlers want to replace what attracted them to this city in the first place with transplanted ideology that doesn’t suit its citizens or landscape.
Below is the modern housing in ST. Petersburg, and it definitely doesn’t look inviting to me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-TwGOTCM9c&ab_channel=NFKRZ
That is the weakest argument that I ever heard, reduced capacity and choice all in one sentence. How about alleviates gridlock and traffics with public transportation and infrastructure?
If reduce capacity is the goal then why bother have roads, or any form of public transportation and infrastructures? It would be more logical to build a wall around Victoria to prevent newcomers and throw out automobile drivers to quickly realize the reduce capacity goal.
I’m really looking forward to the Mackenzie bike lanes, they should have done the same thing on the whole length of Shelbourne.
It’s common sense that the more roads you buld the more you encourage people to drive, therfore reduce capacity and people will make other transportation choice. Just as people in the core really have to think when they drive out to the westshore not to caught up in traffic gridlock.
“All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.”
In the picture below which city would you rather live in?
I grew up in a Soviet style neighborhood and when you look at what is being built today they are actually really nice in terms of urban planning. Sure, the buildings are ugly, but the neighborhoods have a ton of greenspace, playgrounds, typically you have all the amenities right within the neighborhood including kindergarten, school, grocery stores, bakeries, etc.
The huge advantage soviet style housing has over today is the entire neighborhood would be penciled out before anything was built. Today you piece meal individual lots and you can’t possibly replicate that.
If you could hypothetical build brand new buildings with Soviet neighborhood urban planning I think you would be shocked how nice it would be.
This is a tour my cousin gave me of his soviet era hood a couple of years ago -> https://youtu.be/lVabRgvjlDo?feature=shared&t=49
AP1 in my Model S nine years ago could drive Langford to Sooke. There is a lot of moving parts here such as economics, regulations, availability (is a car always available to show up to my house within 5 minutes?) weather (I know Waymo has been testing in snow for at least 6 years but so many variables to account for). I still think 20 years out before I can sell my car.
Advocating for Soviet style housing is not punishing, then I don’t know what is.
I dont know if Mackenzie is a good plan or not but if the population under the new immigration policies remains stable and if the Federal Conservatives follow through on their policy to limit foreign students to less than 5% of student enrollment than exactly where is all this extra population to build these fifteen minute cities going to come from? Anyway, not an area we are looking at this time.
Thanks Vic and Van: sounds like good advise which I will take into account.
Good thing for traffic calming.
There’s always the taboo third option that would solve this problem and so many others: not grow the population, and instead aim for a truly sustainable steady-state society.
What’s going to happen is all these nice quiet neighbourhood roads are going to become major traffic thoroughfares like Tattersall (when their done), Mount Doug, Ash, Cedar hill x roads, and every other back road people can find. Even up and over mount Tolmie Park.
The only reason I use McKenzie these days is because they have Tattersall ripped apart. Normally I’d hang a left at uptown off highway 1.
Cyclists should have to pay road use fees annually. And be fully insured through ICBC where the annual road use fees would be collected on top of their annual no fault insurance policy. If they hit my door I want it fixed.
You denied that much of municipal road policy as about punishing motorists and I called you out.
What did I misunderstand?
That’s rich, there was no victim play there, nice play at hyperbole with ad hominem mixed in. The assertion was a mode transport can be advanced without negative reinforcement measures on another mode of travel, way to throw in both a false dichotomy and straw man fallacies into the mix with the London ad. Are you asserting that there is no actions by government in this region to make car travel more difficult in order to dissuade car use?
Dean Park IS close to the airport and ferries if you travel a lot so that is a plus. However, it does face a worsening work commute to Downtown Victoria or to other centres of employment such as UVic. The upcoming McKenzie Ave. debacle is really to going to lengthen the commute into UVic for students or staff coming from anywhere west of Cedar Hill Rd. For a Downtown commute, the ongoing reduction in street width in the City of Victoria makes the commute at the Downtown end really hairy and adding even 10 minutes the commute length will make it an increasingly difficult commute. Dean Park is well suited for retired or WFH folks who like to travel a lot but not if you work in town.
Since you’ve referenced the “facts of physics” in discussing traffic issues, how about you explain to us regular folks in simple terms how they would possibly increase the “ throughput of the existing (McKenzie) road” by this hare-brained scheme they’ve announced. And do you actually think that “increasing the throughput of the (McKenize) road” is their intention? And so they’re doing it by reducing lanes and adding bike lanes to achieve that. Seriously?
Sure. But were going to need a lot of permitting reform. Many of the same reasons that we can’t build housing underlay why our public infrastructure is so expensive.
Nice to see you didn’t understand a word of what I wrote
Hardy har har! Good one Leo!
Absolutely the mindset among the woke is all about punishing others.
Then give us a bullet train from Nanaimo to downtown Vic using the existing Vancouver Island Rail Corridor (formerly known as the E&N Rail Corridor). I think the money would be much better spent there than destroying the existing McKenzie.
I’m not necessarily in favour of reducing the car lanes, but when you have a road and you want to increase capacity, there are only two options:
I’m not sure of available space but I suspect adding a lane each way is not possible, so switching general vehicle lane transit priority would be an example of how to increase the throughput of the existing road (requires some minimum of transit headways that is higher than the current one of course)
> Literally not possible to move that volume of people with such a space-intensive mode of travel.
And yet the city wants to reduce the number of lanes of traffic on streets like McKenzie, which worsens the situation. Hopefully sanity will make a cameo appearance and they’ll drop that dumb idea.
More people drive than people that don’t. And we were here first! And we pay a hell of a lot of money at that gas pump for our roads.
I know it’s popular to act the victim these days, but it has nothing to do with punishing anyone. Just a simple fact of physics that when you have a city of a certain size and density, not everyone can drive. Literally not possible to move that volume of people with such a space-intensive mode of travel.
British rail put this very clearly in 1979.
I totally agree 100% with everything you just said. I will never, ever hop on a bus! Leave the roads as they are. If I was in Sannach or Victoria I’d be pissed! Transit used to be for kids That didn’t have their DL yet and people that couldn’t afford to drive. In fact it was called the loser cruiser.
My youngest Son and his girlfriend can get from City centre Langford to downtown Vancouver via bus, ferry, bus for $28 each 1 way. The girlfriend has an Aunt over there they stay with.
For the transportation discussion, it’s the strange view that to advance the use of public transit that there needs to be zealous punishment of those that drive a car to force them to consider using public transit. The negative reinforcement aspect of urban planning nowadays and the nutbags that believe that governments role is somehow should be to interfere with others to make people think and live like they do. You like to take public transit, great! Be happy! and let the person that likes being their car be happy too. Want more people to take public transit, make it attractive for it being an efficient and quality service and not that they will be punished by traffic jams and taxes if they do not.
Anecdotally, the houses we looked in a similar price band between Dean Park, Gordon Head, and Broadmead; the Dean Park houses from that sample were maintained to a much higher standard and it was noticeable. However, Broadmead and Gordon Head still ended up as more preferable locations because of the vicinity to services. Dean Park seemed to offer a higher quality selection product at a within a price range which would have been more of a draw if are needs were different for housing.
We’re talking about transit ridership, not affordability. Keep up.
>> Larger cities tend to have higher shares of non-car commuters. This is true for everyone except the really long commuters who consistently take cars. But that’s more a land use challenge. Allow more housing near the jobs and people can take transit or bike/walk.
You’re measuring “success” based on an eco-agenda, instead of housing. The “success story” cities topping your list (including Vancouver, Victoria, Toronto) have the worst affordability in Canada.
Maybe the affordability is better in cities with better infrastructure of roads so people prefer to commute than walking. So they live happily in suburbs, with cheaper housing and drive to work.
Nothing wrong with having an eco-agenda, but let’s not pretend it’s the same as pro- affordable housing agenda.
Pro-housing agenda would include building infrastructure roads/highways and commuter trains to allow people to live outside the city and not be crammed into high rise density city living because the cities stopped building roads.
Seems like a very small step to me. Waymo can handle rain and darkness right now, so the only thing missing is that they haven’t mapped this area.
Not a technology problem, just an economics problem. I’m not sure if their cost model would allow them to expand to smaller cities. Certainly it will come to Vancouver first.
Most of them. Larger cities tend to have higher shares of non-car commuters. This is true for everyone except the really long commuters who consistently take cars. But that’s more a land use challenge. Allow more housing near the jobs and people can take transit or bike/walk.
LMAO, sounds like you should go apply for a job.
It isn’t that difficult to look at and track each individual stock that is in the S&P 100/500, or the Russell indexes to do an adjustment for 1 person, let alone an over paid team of 2-3 people. You don’t even need AI to track the indexes… a simple sort routine would do it easily.
Can you point to any Canadian success stories of this?
No one wants more headcount than required because you are also judged by management fees as % of assets managed. Salaries are market since you are competing for talent from other investment managers.
Here is a quick example on why even managing index funds is better to do it in house than via ETF. The SPY etf has a management fee of 0.09%, so on $10 billion, it will cost $9M a year. You can hire those same people (~3 people) and do this in-house for less than $2M, probably even less than $1.5M.
Perfect reasoning for AI.
I wouldn’t expect someone here who works at a Victoria based pension manager (BCI.ca) to agree with you on that point 🙂
There is a big step from Waymo (only allowed to operate in restricted geo areas, not allowed on the highway, etc.) and between me selling my car and calling a Waymo to take me out to Sooke on rainy December evening.
I agree but it doesn’t need to have a giant team that costs millions to do the research.
UBC have the same practice for the summer.
https://suitesatubc.com/
Hence active management.
Then you just won’t be able to find anyone to manage your money. Aimco got killed on commercial RE recently and they weren’t the only one.
Isn’t that the job of management to do their homework and look for potentials based on financial fundamentals, and balanced the portfolio?
I can understand what AB is doing, as an investor I would be very upset if my portfolio performed below the indexes still have to pay management fees.
So both has of these has already happened LMAO.
I believe McGill rents out their dorms as hotels in the summer, I think UBCO does that too.
With Victoria population rising, we need to expand all modes of transportation, and cars remain the highest on the roads (71%), with the others way behind – cyclists (6%) and buses (6%)
[via ChatGPT] …. According to the 2022 Origin Destination Household Travel Survey conducted by the Capital Regional District (CRD), the distribution of transportation modes in the Victoria, BC region is as follows:
• Private Vehicle (Driver or Passenger): 71% of trips
• Walking: 17% of trips
• Cycling: 6% of trips
• Public Transit: 6% of trips
This data indicates that a significant majority of residents rely on private vehicles for their daily travel, while walking, cycling, and public transit account for smaller portions of trips.
The CRD has set a regional target to increase the share of trips made by walking, cycling, and transit to 45% by 2038. Achieving this goal will require concerted efforts to enhance infrastructure and services that support these modes of transportation.
not entirely, lots of private markets. On the public market side all pension funds already have index exposure managed by a very small team but you will never beat the index doing that due to transaction costs so you need alpha elsewhere.
Isn’t that what active management mostly involved in?
If the goal is the bench mark, then wouldn’t it make sense to have a hands off approach and just buy the indexes?
Literally how every growing city successfully handles this problem but ok
Traveling by car will only get worse everywhere as we add more people to the region and we keep roads and highways essentially the same (a new highway interchange here and there helps a bit, temporarily).
Same with the ferries. Essentially the same number of vessels and sailings as 20 years ago, while the population has increased dramatically.
And if your solution to the first problem is getting more people to take public transit, good luck with that. And if your solution to the second problem is getting more people to ditch their car and walk on a ferry, good luck with that.
That is a recipe for underperforming against the benchmark.
I agree there has to be a small mount of active management. Volatility can be mitigate with the help of AI on limits and stop lost, and redemption also can have a few less set of eyes to over see the process with AI.
It’s a necessary asset class for a whole slew of reasons, can’t just do stocks and bonds even at $100 million scale. Have to buy up some SFH and then jack up the rent as much as possible to generate alpha 😉
Can’t do completely passive at pension fund due to volatility and redemption requirements.
Average Wages in Canada have risen consistently. Average inflation adjusted Canadian wages up 25% since 1990, so that means rising wages as the economy transitions, and lots of those people are “better off”
It’s a questionable model at CPP’s scale, and a losing proposition at Alberta’s.
Yes. Lots of AI in medical imaging.
IMHO, passive management return is often greater than active management, so I don’t see the value of active. And, this is where deployment of AI will reduce management costs.
Well, going to look at a couple of houses this weekend, gulp on the price.
That’s what Aimco was trying to do, mimic the cpp model by opening up offices around the world and doing more active management in house for private markets. Needs time for all the right chess pieces to be in place. They fired few other senior management too in yesterday’s “house cleaning”.
Why not just a better shape house in broadmead or Gordon Head? Cost?
Actually it was manufacturing which replaced the lost jobs in agriculture starting around the turn of the 20th century. In turn lost jobs in manufacturing have been replaced by service jobs more recently. Problem is that unlike the first transition where the new jobs paid better, the new service jobs on the whole don’t pay as much.
Low unemployment is better than high unemployment of course but it doesn’t mean that everyone is better off.
Can AI generate an unbiased second opinion? I’m thinking of its use in reading medical scans, X-rays, etc…
I looked at pretty hard at the Dean Park when shopping for a house. Large lots/houses and 80s/90s/00s builds for easier renos as well as tending to be in better shape than Broadmead and Gordon Head homes, but the distance and the lack infrastructure for families were the issues for us (nothing is really walking distance for services, playgrounds, rec, shopping and etc..). The peninsula commute seems to be getting more like the Westshore commute with each passing year (take the peninsula over the Westshore any day still). Maybe if my kids were teens (they are pre-school and elementary age), it would work out there if both could drive themselves, but again, the traffic jamming programs being implemented across the CRD municipalities really forced us to the core.
What do people think of the Dean park area? Just drove through and it seemed nice and had seem great views. Too far out?
I use ChatGPT a lot.
I would say that it saves me at least 20% of time on specific aspects of projects. That is a big productivity boost and significant cost savings. I approve of the efficiency gains as the client pays less for the same product and the types of tasks it is good at are not the ones I want to be spending a lot of time on. I think professionals who don’t look at integrating AI are going to find it hard to compete – its like refusing to learn to use a computer.
My friend who owns a bilingual consulting firm in Ottawa no longer has to do the translations herself or hire them out. She just needs to proofread and ChatGpt is very good at translation.
And then there are the unionized port workers fighting against AI and automation…
. >>.>Or the company with 5 programmers can do 20% more work
Yes. But without chatGPT, they’d need to hire 20% more programmers to do that work. Which won’t be happening.
>> I’m most concerned about junior programmers, because that’s the kind of task that AI is good at. Right now AI still needs a senior programmer to guide it, but maybe in 5 years it won’t.
A senior programmer (and their company) is at a big risk too. Sure they have some advanced skills, but it’s easier (and cheaper) for others to compete with them too . And their risk is from other senior programmers, planning to eat their lunch. Like “Anthropic”, a OpenAI competitor formed by former OpenAI senior programmers.. There are 100+ companies doing similar things to them. Only the fittest survive. OpenAI could easily be out of business in ten years.
Or the company with 5 programmers can do 20% more work. I’m most concerned about junior programmers, because that’s the kind of task that AI is good at. Right now AI still needs a senior programmer to guide it, but maybe in 5 years it won’t.
Perhaps. But there’s also reason to believe AGI is very different than past innovations. This video is now 10 years old, and maybe it will take another 20 years, but I always found this argument difficult to refute: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU
There’s a common mistake people make thinking that chatGPT couldn’t replace their job, because it can’t do everything they do.
Here’s why they’re wrong.
Example: ChatGPT increases productivity of a programmer by at least 25%. So if a programmer could complete 4 projects, with chatGPT they can complete 5 projects. If there are 20 projects total, they can be done by four programmers instead of five. So we need 20% less programmers in this example. Even though chatGPT couldn’t do more than 25% of the tasks of a programmer, it has replaced 20% of needed programmers in this example.
This is an important point. Because many people can’t see AI replacing their job, because they think that it needs to do every aspect of their job. But like the example I described above, AI doesn’t need to be able to replace them completely. It just needs to make other humans doing a similar job to theirs more productive, and that enables other human to take a portion of their work, not AI.
So no, chatGPT isn’t able to replace all of the functions of a programmer. It just replaces **some ** functions for the existing programmers. And those chatGPT savvy programmers are able to do more , and take on more work, resulting in less need for programmers overall. Same thing applies to almost every job.
So if you estimate that 25% of your job could be done by chatGPT, you should expect that there’d be 25% less people doing similar work to you needed. Of course this trend of increasing productivity and automation has been happening for hundreds of years. It used to take 33% of the work force to grow and harvest our food. Now that’s 3%.And society has adapted by creating new types of jobs (e.g. rise of the service based economy) so unemployment stays low. And I expect that to continue.
If Alberta (or the feds, with respect to CPP) were smart they’d just hire a couple people to execute a simple passive investment strategy that would probably outperform several office floors of high-salaried know-it-alls.
https://www.thestar.com/business/opinion/cpp-investments-spends-billions-of-dollars-to-outperform-the-market-the-problem-is-it-hasnt/article_6d7cea0a-3d2f-11ef-86a4-57243fe35270.html
Lol, and Alberta wants to opt out of the CPP and take it over themselves.
Evan Siddall got canned. Wonder if he regrets leaving CMHC.
All I’m seeing is that chatting online with a human customer service agent has been replaced by chatting with AI.
And so far, AI has never been able to answer a very specific question, let alone solve an issue.
I mean this exists today and Waymo is doing hundreds of thousands of paid trips in the US fully autonomously.
Waymo still has some work cut out before they can expand.
2 weeks ago I was in San Francisco and took several trips with Waymo around town (no airport service or outside of SF), and the car will not pick you up or drop you off at exact location, often 50-100 meters from where you are going. However, it drove very well, excellent obstruction detection, cars. and pedestrians, and possibly better driver than most human.
I think AI will replace taxi and delivery services and possible disrupt tedious profession such as legal secretary, and could very well replace RE agents similar to grocery self checkout or skip the dishes. AI can easily generate automatic offers, book appointments, and accompany a potential buy on a house with pre prepare questions and answers online that the client can access with their phone.
I think it will have the least impact on relationship based professions like real estate.
Engineering is seeing pretty substantial impacts. So far mostly positive in that people can be more productive. I’ll give you another example, mechanical engineer in LNG was telling me how he was programming an autonomous robot to do pipe inspections using AI. He isn’t a programmer and previously they would have hired a high priced consultant but now they can do that kind of integration work themselves
I mean this exists today and Waymo is doing hundreds of thousands of paid trips in the US fully autonomously. The only reason it’s not here yet is that they haven’t expanded. But the technology works right now and it’s in pretty widespread use. Not sure if the economics work yet or if they need to bring the cost down still
I’ve been using it to write descriptions and some other stuff on the real estate side of things. On the development side of things I’ve used it with decent success to put together various reports the municipality wants that doesn’t require a consultant stamp.
But on the whole, still struggling to see how AI will change my life significantly. I would say DocuSign, as one example, had a much bigger impact on my life and productivity personally. No more driving around in the evenings getting initials/signatures.
and if it does improve productivity I have to agree with Peter’s comment
My gut feel is AI is a bit like autonomous vehicles……it is going to take much longer for it to have a profound impact than people think. Do I believe in my lifetime I’ll be able to order a self-driving car and it will pick me up in front of my building and take me to a showing while I answer emails, or sleep, of course. Do I believe it will happen in the next 2, 5, or 10 years? I don’t think so.
He is peddling various other developer theories on VV these days -> https://vibrantvictoria.ca/forum/index.php?/topic/6638-harris-green-the-wedge-residential-retail-15-storeys-built-completed-in-2024/page-20
Vicre , maybe a change of heart, house looks good . I would think that 2.2 sounds about right for a nicely done Reno , and it has over 2000 sq . Like Wayne Gretzky famously said , don’t look at where house prices have been , but where house prices are going to be
The entire Middle East- oil=barren desert wasteland.
The two new towers are open and I heard planning is underway for the next student housing project. Good question about how much they need, I would say little downside to build a ton of student housing. Currently they have 2300 beds for about 22,000 students. Of course not all of those students want to live on campus, but I think we don’t have to worry about too much student housing until we get to perhaps 5000 units. Should be pretty obvious on their side once supply starts to meet demand using vacancy rates. Not sure if they would be open to renting out the apartments to non-students if it came to that.
I got my shadowy developer friends to pay him a visit….
kidding kidding, I don’t have friends.
I’m hopeful Barrister is relaxing in Lugano as was his long term plan.
How much more student housing do we need at UVic? They seem to have a lot of land so why not a few highrises for the kids? Assuming that they are cutting back on foreign students has anyone figured out a real estimate of the Universities housing needs? I keep hearing about the need for student housing but it always seems a rather vague thing without numbers or any real planning? I am probably missing stuff here but I dont see in any detail in the papers or press.
Self-aggrandizing Albertans who confuse geological good fortune with their own brilliance. Alberta minus oil = Saskatchewan
2.2? that would be higher than peak prices in 2022….. I really want to know why the renos were deconstructed in 2023.
Haven’t seen him post since he got called out for repeatedly implying that Leo is a paid shill for greedy developers..
Fed busy slashing rates today , down elevator
824 Monterey looks good , great hood and Reno’s have been started . Lots of upside , that’s 2.2 all finished up and sold this spring
I’m a software engineer and I’ve had a front-row seat to AI/ML bandwagonism for the last decade. Right now the industry is experiencing a weird mix of fever-pitch hype but also a realization of misunderstanding of where it’s value lies. There’s literally thousands of “AI startups” right now that are simply ChatGPT or Claude wearing a hat. Their secret sauce is literally a couple of prompts that are a few paragraphs long. There’s going to be a dotcom-esque crash and it’s going to be a huge economic earthquake.
On the other hand, there’s plenty of start ups that have a narrow enough context and enough data / good analysis of that data to be very valuable. That’s what my company is trying to do right now. A SaaS is worth something like 10-15x their ARR but an AI startup is worth something like 35x their ARR. Cashing out on the hype is going to be the theme of the AI space for the next few years.
BC Hydro makes a killing selling high and buying low. Bad plan
Ya, you gotta wonder how a realtor spun that valuation. “Let’s see, last listed at 1.3 and failed to sell, the new kitchen, bathroom vanities and hot water tank were stripped out and sold on FB marketplace before the flippers abandoned it. Let’s go in at 1.6 and be above any of the comps! Rate are coming down, it’s all up from here, in the November/December market surge! ” Lol….
It will be great for me if they get that price, I wouldn’t mind having a several hundred thousand gain since my May/June purchase… But I tend to live in reality.
You can see the whole thing on House Sigma anyways including all the prior listing pictures. So they bought it for 1.27, did a reno can’t even unload at 1.3. Now they have deconstructed some of the renos and want $1.6M for it? Thursty is that you??
LOL, yup same understanding as the RE market.
At some point McKenzie needs improvements because right now it’s not great for anyone, but in the short term they should just focus on allowing a ton of new housing near the university and let people live closer to where they are going for school/work and less need to commute.
BCE reports a loss, dividends are paid out on borrowed money, down 4% today. Another Canadian success story. Bail out today.
Too funny, 824 Monterey is back up. Any takers on that suckers bet this time? I guess whoever is selling that disaster of a flip, hopes the buyer’s agent doesn’t have them view the MLS listing history on that thing…
Yeah, but don’t worry, our municipalities and other levels of gov’t will pick up the slack and fill that cost gap with additional regs & fees
Does anyone know what happened to Barrister?
“Reminds me of Keynes’ 1930 prediction that, by 2030, people would only need to work 15 hours a week.”
Uncanny how accurate this may turn out to be.
If I understand it correctly, Saanich’s Draft Quadra-McKenzie Plan proposes to reduce McKenzie Ave to one lane each direction in places to make room for a dedicated bus lane and a safer bicycle lane.
I don’t think folks are going to be super thrilled about this.
3D printing as far as construction goes is more geared towards Moon colonization or Mars colonization. I really can’t see it taking off down here on Earth.
The principles and practices of house construction for the most part hasn’t really changed all that much since I’ve been alive.
Reminds me of Keynes’ 1930 prediction that, by 2030, people would only need to work 15 hours a week.
Max , I don’t see much change on how we go about building homes , besides it does work real well
If it were a dead level lot and bought the $1.5 million USD 3d printer…The City might approve the build.
Just wait until Amazon gets really serious on this and plugs in to governments and manufacturers to mass produce, distribute and install beautiful, functional, high quality, pre approved and easily permitted house designs at 1/10th the price that can be approved, prepped and built in a month. 99% of houses will be ordered from a catalog and set up in a day or 2 on a pre poured foundation. Labor costs will be reduced 90%. As Bezos always says, “your margin is my opportunity”
Or buy a 3d printer that can print the houses.
Perhaps you should send Nan a pamphlet.
Max, prefabs have been around a long time but have never really caught on . I just got involved in a tiny home co , and it will be interesting to c how that goes .
Who’s proud of it? I don’t understand.
My mom ordered a Pan abode house from the Sears catalogue back in 1985.
The population is fine.
-Vote twinkle toes out on the next Federal election for starters.
-Refine more of our own oil into gasoline instead of buying it back from the US at value added prices.
-Stop selling our hydro to the US.
-Add more value to our lumber instead of buying it back from the US at value added prices.
-Invest more into agriculture for domestic consumption.
-Invest more into cattle farming for domestic consumption.
-Invest more into dairy farming for domestic consumption.
As far as GDP. Its available and good to go for the right price.
We need to become more independent.
Perpetual growth is nothing more than greed.
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2024/11/03/october-detached-makes-a-substantial-recovery/#comment-121782
When they all die, the corporation will be free and clear to not pay employees I guess. I think this is a pretty unique scenario though. it’s certainly not portable to most jobs.
On Don Mann, I think all industries will be disrupted. I don’t think you’re going to get a tesla robot walking around with hammers but I would be perfectly happy with a nice house that comes pre fab out of a box made by robots somewhere else. And this is already here – https://www.amazon.ca/prefab-homes/s?k=prefab+homes
Just wait until Amazon gets really serious on this and plugs in to governments and manufacturers to mass produce, distribute and install beautiful, functional, high quality, pre approved and easily permitted house designs at 1/10th the price that can be approved, prepped and built in a month. 99% of houses will be ordered from a catalog and set up in a day or 2 on a pre poured foundation. Labor costs will be reduced 90%. As Bezos always says, “your margin is my opportunity”
The East coast has been on the dole for decades. You want a solution?
“Numerous political parties in the western provinces, believing there to be no other solution for stemming apparent “Western alienation” by Central Canada, have sought independence. These movements are strongest in Alberta and British Columbia.”
The discussion on dividends is interesting. For example, BCE stock has lost 20% of its value this year, and the dividend percentage has gone from 8% to 10% (with the same dollar value of dividend). If you invested in BCE at the start of 2024, you have lost 12% (20 %- 8%), and people seem to be proud of it.
Rough Times Ahead.
The liberals opened the flood gates on immigration over the last 3 years and extracted some aggregate GDP growth. This masked the declining productivity in Canada and they couldn’t get any GDP per capita growth over the last 5 years. We are still below pre-covid GDP per capita. Now with proposed reduction in population, say goodbye to aggregate GDP growth as well (aka Japanification). While inflation in USA is still persistent, Canada is a different story. Asset and goods deflation are likely in the short term, likely for a couple of years. Declining population and declining productivity is a bad combo.
“Money for nothing doesn’t work.”
Yeah, you’d think. Well maybe not. The recent east coast dock workers strike brought to light an interesting head scratcher. It turns out that prior to the strike, of the total union members (50,000) only half were actually working. The other half get paid to stay home. How can this be? Well, apparently there is a “no job loss due to automation” clause in their contract. However, Port Management has determined it is still more profitable to continue automation, while continuing to pay workers to stay home.
If you make a living staring at a screen all day…Good chance you’ll be replaced by AI. If you work for Don Mann digging up the entire city and paid by the city…Not so much.
No, I don’t work for Don Mann.
I also think NASA is done. Elon will take it from here. If Trump was younger he would nail a consecutive term in 2028. With that said I hope Elon Musk takes the helm in 2028.
So long as you can adapt and not become a useless eater.
Anyone would be foolish not to listen and prepare.
Money for nothing doesn’t work.
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2024/11/03/october-detached-makes-a-substantial-recovery/#comment-121776
Is this some kind of joke? Seems like someone might say that so people “don’t look up.”
Sorry, don’t want to leave this subject with such a negative sentiment. There is a real good chance, Mr Musk puts it at 80 to 90% that super intelligence leads to a utopian world, one in which abundance is everywhere for everyone.
Dee, the answer to your question is, no one knows. It is unknowable. We are in a global race for super intelligence and containment is at risk. Three fundamental principles that AI researchers all agreed upon several years ago were, 1. Do not let AI models write code, 2. Do not give them access to the internet and 3. do not let them communicate with each other. We have violated all three.
We are essentially at an inflection point. I am not aware of any tech insiders that do not expect we will surpass human level intelligence within the next 4 years. In fact the median point is predicted to be 2027.
I am not trying to scare anyone or say that I know what is about to happen but when there is broad agreement from those at the centre of this technology , I would be foolish not to listen and prepare.
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2024/11/03/october-detached-makes-a-substantial-recovery/#comment-121772
This is the main argument for UBI but that only works when production of basics is automated (food, clothing, etc). Things need to get more unequal before the masses can vote for more wealth extraction from the investor class.
Léo, question since you know about AI (certainly more than me). I’m wondering about the role of AI in terms of exacerbating wealth inequality. Is it as simple as – given that, at any given time, there’s only so much money, and given that AI is smarter and smarter, that AI tech will be used more and more to funnel money away from the masses to the few? Like a runaway train but on speed (AI is the speed). Like this is going to get away from us until eventually everyone will be either very rich or very poor (I realize this is already happening- what I’m talking about is a major disruption in wealth distribution that happens over a relatively small period of time).
Trump’s tariff pledges are worrisome. A universal tariff on imports from all foreign countries are likely to raise inflation in the USA, forcing the Federal Reserve to act with tighter monetary policy.
Firms mostly pass import costs onto the customer, so tariffs are likely to be inflationary for U.S. buyers, forcing the Fed to keep interest rates high for longer or to even reverse course and hike borrowing costs once again.
I do software development on the side so I see the impact first-hand. Total game-changer in that space. Google recently announced that a quarter of their code is already written by AI, and we’re only two years into this. I also work with engineering students and they will face a lot of disruption in their careers. I literally have hired a co-op student for a project in the past that I would now do myself with AI.
Not necessarily strictly a negative thing, there’s 1000x more work to do in the world than there’s people to do it so it could just make humanity a lot more productive, but it is and is going to be a huge disruptor, and some jobs will disappear entirely. Depending on how smart it gets, maybe even lots of jobs.
@Marko, did you have more people doing mere listings during the slow market where prices aren’t going up?
Well only 6 days in and victoria’s market seems to be off to a crazy fast start , where are all these people coming from , stop the ferries
How so?
100%
History shows us that the stock market performs better under democrat presidents vs republicans – tons of studies showing this. Sample size is small so could be a historical accident But I wouldn’t get too excited about your stock holdings either way.
LOL you gotta wait in line for that haha. This guy needs it more than you : https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/27448839/539-caselton-pl-saanich-royal-oak
I just need a hot spring market to unload my house , then I can go on vacation
Vicre, I will be winging it , I just need to make more money lol
“Could be. But I would not be jumping to conclusions.”
Frankly, In the next 4 years, I think AI will have a much bigger impact on our lives than DT.
Currently you are probably looking at 3.75%-4.25% at renewal next spring currently with maybe another 50bps of further cuts before bottoming in the summer/fall.
Could be. But I would not be jumping to conclusions.
And will be doing even better now with an economy focus team instead of gender and unrealistic environment agenda team.
The U.S strong economy is a bit of a hiccup but Canadian dollar can still go lower and not worry too much
Vicre , shite no I have 2 mortgages coming up this spring and I’m all in on variable. I think Trump luvs lower for longer rates too . I really dont expect much from trump other than a lot of hot air
Thursty, you may want to look at locking in your mortgage renewal you have coming up next year. Market just doesn’t see mortgage rates much below 4%.
Well, that’s the thing, there’s the economy by the numbers and the economy that people are experiencing. Even take it to the BC level and the results in the provincial election,
US economy has left everyone else in the dust since Covid. They have been doing extremely well.
yep canada and bc economy was fine last time trump was in so can pretty much expect the same . the debbie downers are out in full force saying all sorts of rubbish. THere will be lots of money to be made in the next 4 years and thats all that matters
Trump seems to be definitely over 270, no point in recounts that I can see.
The FED wouldn’t drop interest rates if the economy is firing on all cylinders.
Interesting to see that result. Well this time he’s being handed an economy that is firing on all cylinders and no covid wildcard. Will be interesting to see how they do over the next four years. Republicans are arguing for Milei level reforms, the difference is that Argentina was a dumpster fire and needed major reforms while America has done exceptionally well recently
It’s days like this where i’m glad my house is almost paid off and my investment accounts are 80% u.s. stocks/etfs in u.s. dollar accounts.
Exactly for large caps and tech, however it still is a movement. US small caps are jumping up at an average rate of 4.5%, and my 9 US mid size bank stocks that I’m holding jumped between 9-15% at the moment (take a look at FHN and ZION).
I don’t know. Makes me nervous about domestic prices for things like lumber. I should probably buy those kitchen cabinets soon
This, so it will be a possibility that the BoC will drop rates even quicker now that the Canadian economy is facing more headwind. The CAD will likely slip even further, and I hope it will not be a repeat of the early 2000s when $1 CAD = $0.64 USD.
Meh. 2% + or – move is like 20% of market days
Thursty, except proposed tariffs will hurt our exports to the US. Keep in mind roughly 80% of everything we produce in this Country is exported to the US. In BC our logging and lumber industries are already suffering from increased softwood lumber duties.
The red wave will have little to no effect on Canada or the rest of the world . Man the headlines are comical with all the hysteria lol
Interested to see what Elon does to cut government fat. If that works somewhat (which it most likely will) then you can bet Canadians will demand the same thing here.
I agree with this. More than happy to collect 10% dividend while waiting for the share price to recover over the next 5 years. If it recovers faster then I may exit and search for better risk/reward. If it goes down further then may average down provided the core business has not deteriorated.
Thank you for the education.
Nothing is guarantee. Individual stock picks, ETFs, etc… aren’t a guarantee of a return. Even Warren Buffet at times loses half of his equity holding value ie. the 2008 and Covid crash.
However, to me the potential for BCE upside is greater than downside, because their cash flow will improve once they absorbed Ziply FIber and expand into new market. Which is an improvement over it previous lethargic state with no future and no growth. The only question remain that spooked the majority of the market is that is BCE management are nimble enough to venture into the new market that they don’t have a monopoly in?
As predicted, the US stock market jumped on the outcome of the US election.
It’s a RED WAVE!
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president.html
LMAO
I was totally going to say that…Until I read this.
“Will Starlink replace cell towers?
Will Satellites Replace Cell Towers? Unpacking Black Dot’s …
Satellite-to-cell technology will not replace most cell towers. Why? Limited bandwidth and capacity relative to towers. Cell towers generally have lower latency.”
Starlink.
I think everyone knows that, and who’s paying 7% for HELOC these days?
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2024/11/03/october-detached-makes-a-substantial-recovery/#comment-121714
We really need an education on dividends in this country. Just because the dividend is 10%, doesn’t mean your return on the stock will be 10%.
But hey, what do I know? Go ahead and take out a HELOC at 6 or 7% to buy dividend stocks and see how that works out for you.
And just what infrastructure would those new entrants use to operate?
Significant minimum wage increases could be impacting the fast food industry.
With all of Trump’s stupidity, convictions, and shooting his mouth off inappropriately, he hasn’t lost a step in early election results. Fascinating. CNN has great analysis.
When Mcdonald’s, Burger king, and Tim Hortons are struggling…Somethings wrong.
Nothing in this world is guarantee except for tax and death.
That is not going to change at anytime in the foreseeable future because Canada is a left leaning political system that will eat it self to the core before the lefties allow a market driven politician to get into power.
Most of the time a market driven company would strives, but unfortunately the lefty government will tie it hands and tax it to death. That drove many innovative companies to leave Canada to survive, and those that stays within the fold allows to rob the populous blind, because they play the game by paying the government extortion fees.
I completely agree, but I don’t think management would go to such a length to buy an American company that is in the same business for growth, and at the mean time got rid of a vanity holding that is not within their core business.
@Patrick.
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I have been with that girlfriend for 34 years now. She’s my Wife. So relax, no one is going to jail.
Letting more telecom companies into the country would tank BCE.
Or just optimizing what pays into that TFSA.
Not entirely true, when buying growth stocks the thesis is that the company is either not profitable but will be or thinks they can reinvest their earnings into the business to grow. The risks of the former doesn’t need explaining, for the latter you are betting entirely on management to make smart capital allocation decisions. With a dividend stock, you are getting a portion of the earnings in cash and you can allocate however you like.
LMAO not sure what business is viable if a telecom oligopoly isn’t….
>On top of that, you are relying on unsustainable and increasingly unpopular immigration to fuel any growth since companies can’t sell more to existing people when GDP per capita has been negative the last 10 quarters.
I am perfectly fine collecting 9%-10% and share prices flat for a portion of my Portfolio, I can gamble the dividends on other capital appreciation opportunities 🙂
The latest drop is solely due to the acquisition they made where the market was hoping they used the sales proceeds from MLSE to pay down debt. If the drop was due to the deterioration of their business then it would be much more concerning.
Unless you need the cash flow, buying stock for dividends is sub optimal generally.
Additionally, most of the Canadian dividend stocks are paying relatively large dividends because of government protection in one form or another that allows them to profit in an outsized way off the backs of Canadians so you are essentially betting on a weak protected company that is sheltered and betting on the continued political stability of that shelter to support your investment value and cash flow.
On top of that, you are relying on unsustainable and increasingly unpopular immigration to fuel any growth since companies can’t sell more to existing people when GDP per capita has been negative the last 10 quarters.
I’d rather invest in companies that sell globally in every currency and aren’t protected by government that still outperform our coddled oligopolies.
I’d I bet I see a 10% capital bump just off the currency crunch coming our way as we cut rates to keep the wheels on the bus and do other stupid things like cap O&G emissions.
No guarantee on the viability of the business.
On the amount of payout? The reason to buy preferred shares is for a dividend pay in addition to potential share growth. Anyway, I assume most people are just in a preferred shares ETFs and don’t chase it day to day.
I thought about BCEa few months ago at 9.3%, now it’s 10%, that’s a very bad sign when the dividend gets over 10%. Probably a good one to avoid. There are no guarantees on dividend paying stocks.
I bet many people are paying 7% or less for their Home Equity Line of Credit these days, so it make perfect sense to take a loan to buy BCE for that 10% dividend, and pocket 3% profit yearly if they are into leveraging.
“I have Telus which has also taken a beating in the last year.
How safe do you think the 10.01% dividend is?”
I would back up the truck on $40 share price, that is paying out $1.00 dividend quarterly if I’m a dividend chaser.
I think BCE is a solid company and dividend will likely to remain the same, but regular dividend growth is uncertain in the foreseeable future, because of the upgrading Ziply network costs from copper to fiber.
And, at the moment the market seems to over sold BCE that will regain share price once people sorber, because BCE did the stock holders a favor by getting rid of their vanity MLSE shares to look elsewhere for growth.
Everyone took a beating in the last couple of years except for large cap tech companies due to AI drive. For now I expect the AI drive market for a few more years, and once the interest rates mitigate into the market it will rise especially small caps.
For those thinking about buying a house with a suite and accessory dwelling units. You must email or call the municipality to find out if there has been a permit issued for those suites. If there are no permits then you can’t rely on those illegal rents to be considered by the lender to offset the cost of the mortgage. The size of the ADU is important too as most lenders have a minimum size. If the ADU is less than the minimum size they may not lend on the contributory value of the ADU even if it is a legal suite. Then you will either have to come up with a bigger down payment to stay under 80 percent financing or take on a high ratio mortgage. Most “A’ lenders have published lending guidelines which are often different from each other and are always being updated. Ask your lender to verify that what you are intending to purchase meets their latest guidelines.
If the suites are vacant, you should do some personal investigating on what they may rent for and build in a vacancy and bad debt rate into your calculation.
As a general rule if the listing does not explicitly say the suite is legally permitted then it is most likely not. An in-law suite is NOT a legal suite. A listing for a property is an advertisement and while it should not be misleading it is there only to encourage prospective purchasers to make further enquiries.
You might hate me now for bringing this up, but you will love me later.
I personally like to control the strike price on the sold calls and also retain the ability to exist the entire position at my discretion.
Good plan.
For others that want to do something similar, but “hands-off”. You can buy an etf like umax that has high dividend payers, and sells covered calls on half of the holdings, so you still get some upside, as well as a 14% yield. (0.65% MER fee). 18% total return in last year. They have the usual suspects (Telus, bce) in their top ten holdings.
https://hamiltonetfs.com/etf/umax/
“The expected drop in population growth, from nearly 3.5% to almost zero, is likely to have a major impact on the housing landscape. These substantial demographics shift could reshape demand and supply dynamics in the Canadian rea estate market.”
Rental Market Implications
” Experts suggest renters and homebuyers may start feeling the impact as early as next year, with downward pressure on rents already observed in in some markets. The influx of new rental units coming online could exacerbate this trend, leading to a potential surplus of rental properties. This could provide some relief for renters who have faced rapid rent increases in recent years.”
-Story by Lyn Sable
-Would have been better reporting if she had named her sources, but when you get paid nickels a word one can’t expect much. It’s much better to trace back to the original source to find out what the experts actually said rather than her interpretation of what they said.
Should be safe enough, they’ve made a commitment on keeping it the same for 2025, previously they have grown their dividend yearly. The acquisition looks reasonable from a strategy perspective, I suspect the stock will rebound next year once all the tax loss selling is done and GIC rates go below 3%. I am going to take my proceeds from SOBO to buy and at the same time sell some 2025 covered calls and boost the yield to ~15%.
I managed to edit one single stair case design video (I have a bunch more coming including smaller missing middle concepts from Croatia). Here is a single staircase design concept in a large 9 story building I own in….. I can’t say I feel unsafe. My building here in Victoria has two staircases by they are in the same shaft and if smoke filled the hallway it would probably reach both staircases.
“Single staircase design in large condo buildings and hallway efficiency” – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32Bpzbnr8gU
Exactly what I have been saying for years now on HHV, my buyers on average will drive to Happy Valley/Sooke rather than buy a three bedroom condo in town and I believe this to be an attribute of North American culture.
That being said no changes in regulations will make three bedroom condos more affordable to such a degree that people opt to buy a condo in town versus commute to a townhome or entry level SFH in the burbs.
A couple of months ago I sold a very nice three bedroom condo in a four year building in a solid location in Esquimalt for $680 per square foot. I believe $680 per square foot is below developer replacement cost. However, $680 per foot (below replacement cost) is still $680 x 1,152 = $783,500 or a townhome in Royal Bay territory and most young families will go Royal Bay townhome over in town three bedroom condo.
How can you possibly make this condo more affordable when it is already below replacement cost? In the same building you can sell a one bedroom unit at >$750 per foot all day.
CRA doesn’t have to. And it’s not going to be a question of what the value is, or whether people are at arm’s length, or whether GAAR applies or any of those things. It’s a simple rule – the superficial loss rules expressly provide that if you sell at a loss to an affiliated party (including relatives), your loss is denied, and added to their cost base. It just doesn’t work.
I have Telus which has also taken a beating in the last year.
How safe do you think the 10.01% dividend is?
Time to DCA down on BCE @ Marko.
I wouldn’t move into a complex with only one staircase. That’s just plain stupid.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-canadians-need-homes-not-just-housing/
As I noted a few days ago this was a court ordered sale due to foreclosure, no tax planning involved.
More of the same for the Fraser Valley in October
New listings declined in October, down 5 per cent to 3,194, but increased 26 per cent year-over-year.
Overall inventory dipped in October to 8,799, down three per cent from September, but up 34 per cent over last year. Rising sales and steady inventory levels have the Fraser Valley in a balanced market with a sales-to-active ratio of 15 per cent. The market is considered to be balanced when the ratio is between 12 per cent and 20 per cent.
NOTE: THE SALES TO ACTIVE LISTING RATIO IS THE INVERSE OF THE MONTHS OF INVENTORY
“October’s healthy sales boost is a welcome development for buyers and sellers alike,” said Baldev Gill, CEO of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. “The coming weeks and months will shed more light on whether buyer optimism has returned now that the cycle of interest rate cuts is in full swing.”
Across the Fraser Valley in October, the average number of days to sell a single-family detached home was 34, while for a condo it was 32. Townhomes took, on average, 29 days to sell.
Benchmark prices in the Fraser Valley dipped for the seventh straight month in October, with the
composite Benchmark price down 0.7 per cent to $971,700.
MLS® HPI Benchmark Price Activity
• Single Family Detached: At $1,488,000, the Benchmark price for an FVREB single-family detached
home decreased 0.9 per cent compared to September 2024 and decreased 0.6 per cent compared
to October 2023.
• Townhomes: At $832,200, the Benchmark price for an FVREB townhome decreased 0.3 per cent
compared to September 2024 and decreased 1.4 per cent compared to October 2023.
• Apartments: At $543,300, the Benchmark price for an FVREB apartment/condo decreased 0.3 per
cent compared to September 2024 and increased 0.1 per cent compared to October 2023.
Somehow I doubt if your girlfriend would be considered “arms length” by the tax department. Why would you involve her in something that could land her in jail? She needs a better boyfriend.
Lots of self-styled geniuses on this board.
…And tax avoidance is not tax evasion. If my book keeper tells me if you do “this and that” I can avoid having to pay taxes in this certain area, I’m going to listen. Her Husband is my accountant.
Lmao what about buying a house as principal residence and renting it out not claiming rental income while living at the parent’s house? Is that amateurish? Lol do you know the % of people that have successfully gotten away with that strategy?
But it worked and we paid it back with 9% interest and got away with it. Everything was drawn up by a lawyer and the funds were released from CIBC Wood Gundy. It was legal. There was nothing obscure about it. This would have been back in y2k.
If the transaction is structured primarily for the purpose of avoiding tax it will likely run afoul of GAAR and be considered an avoidance transaction. Amateurish subterfuge such as lending to a girlfriend only obscures the nature of the transaction rather than changes its character.
https://globalnews.ca/news/10849864/canada-mortgage-renewals-delinquencies-2025/
Not if they are at arms length to the related party…Like a girlfriend.
For example when I was young and building spec houses and ran a little over budget. My Dad couldn’t lend me the money from his RRSP…However he was able to lend the money from his RRSP to my girlfriend since she was at an arms length with a different last name.
If no money changed hands, then what you’re describing is at best tax evasion and at worst fraud. There is nothing to indicate that the circumstances of the transaction were anything other than the seller overpaid and sold at a significant loss.
not exactly, financially it would be the same as holding the property (the ownership is just transferred to someone you share financial interest with) but now you have capital loss to use against other capital gains. LOL but realistically I doubt anyone buying STR condos in 2022 is sophisticated enough to do this anyways. Up and Comming/ Airbnb4me was this you?? LMAO
CRA can have fun try arguing that in court if the related party was the only one with an unconditional offer.
And also selling below market to a related party for a loss sounds a lot like tax evasion and not tax planning.
It would still be a loss. Tax planning only lessens the blow.
I don’t. That’s possible.
I figure it’s properties with small kitchens and bachelor style bedrooms that have the biggest to lose. Places that are objectively not nice to live in for more than ~1 month. They wouldn’t be able to fall back on rental value as well.
How do you know it wasn’t a related party transaction structured for one party to capture the capital loss?
Wow, that’s a massive loss. I noticed a couple listings today that are likely to suffer similar losses, although certainly not at that magnitude.
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/27613427/1507-620-toronto-st-victoria-james-bay
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/27613901/807-835-view-st-victoria-downtown
Unit 301 – 524 Yates St appears to be a victim of the AirBnB changes. Purchased in 2021 for $698k. Listed in March of this year and sold 10 days ago for $440k. $258k lost over 3 years before fees (incl condo fees), inflation and taxes. A 37% drop, and that’s from a sold price to sold price, not just a case of fishing for idiots with a listed price. You can’t tell me that was a better option than renting, although obviously that wasn’t the purpose of this property. Would be very interesting to see what the lift is when those restrictions are removed.
Mount Washington and Shawnigan Lake have been str’s since I have been alive. My Grandfather bought a ski in/out condo at Mount Washington as an investment back in the early 80’s. At around the same time he also bought a cabin on Shawnigan Lake as an investment. Mount Washington, He would str it out all season except for the one week of Christmas when he would invite the family up for a get together.
Shawnigan Lake, same deal str it out for 4 months with the exception of one week in August for a family get together. Then he would rent it out long term for the remaining 8 months. This was in the day when the Times Colonist was the closest thing to the internet as you could get. He made a shit ton of money off those properties over the years. STR is nothing new.
Guess what…str is still allowed at both Shawnigan Lake and Mount Washington.
I’m guessing the enforcement comes from others in the building ratting you out. Because I really can’t see the government having enough brains to figure it out themselves.
Not all of the zoned STRs were small studios. There were one- and two-bedroom suites that were used as airbnb and they would be comfortable for long term rentals or for end-users. And this isn’t counting the condominiums that didn’t have or never enforced their strata bylaws for short term stays. Or apartment building owners that found it more profitable to do short term stays versus long term rentals.
Like I said, I have no vested interest in short term rentals. All the str owners out there trying to hang on…sucks to be them.
I’m pretty sure that wouldn’t be a deal breaker for str owners. A lot of str’s were purpose built, No long term tenant would enjoy the space anyway. I think it was the hotel industry padded the pocket of someone within the NDP government. Obliviously the taxi industry didn’t pad the pocket enough so we now have Uber…Which is a great service.
The backlash against short term rentals is growing, not receding. And the measure was broadly popular when last measured.
I don’t see anything that indicates a reversal is on the horizon.
STRs still have the problem of Capital Gains. Sure the vacancy might rise and the ban is lifted but there is a likelihood that the rate could drop the next year and then we are back into a ban once more.
What about the countless other people like me that would rather stay in an airbnb than a disgusting hotel? They took away a really good service here. That’s like shutting down the entire cellular network and now everyone has to go back to landlines.
Definitely the gap between a condo and a single family home ownership can get wider. As I showed in a previous post the gap has been wider at times in the last decade than the gap is today. That gap was as high as 2.4 condos to buy a detached house and as low as 2.0. Currently it is around 2.3.
However, real estate is a marketplace. That marketplace is comprised of all types of homes. If the gap becomes too wide then prospective purchasers will shift to a different property type and that will reduce the condo to house gap and could revert back to the long term average of 2.2.
The more difficult thing to determine is what renters are going to do? They may chose to take advantage of lower interest rates and vacate their rentals and purchase a condo. If enough of them chose to do so that could further weaken the rental market. The problem with any analysis on this segment is the data on historical rents is almost non existent. I suspect for many renters that began renting 12 to 24 months ago, they could likely find a similar rental at a lower rental rate today. Maybe not enough of a difference to switch landlords as it costs money to move and hook up services. But with a 20 percent down payment they have the option of buying a condo at the lower rates and paying a similar amount for mortgage and strata fees as they are paying in rent.
How about those renters that want to stretch to buy a house with a suite? That’s cool as long as your finances are not heavily weighted on achieving a high rental rate for the suite and a low vacancy rate. If the suite goes vacant you are likely to have a longer lease up period at a lower rental rate. May be you should be more conservative and build in a 3 or 4 percent vacancy rate as a sunk cost.
Perhaps the current str rules will be relaxed a little. I can’t see a full reversal. The problems associated with str (or perceived problems) are happening in several countries (just look at Spain). Before, there was nothing. Now, there is too much. But I don’t think we should or will go back to nothing.
How much taxpayer money goes towards enforcement? What are the fines for noncompliance?
I agree. Even though I have no vested interest, There are plenty of long term rentals available now. Enough is enough, There is no excuse. People were raked over the coals from this ban. Government involvement always results in failure when it comes to free enterprise.
I’m saying the government is not going to back off on its current restrictions. If vacancy rates rise to the extent STRs become allowable in some markets under those restrictions, well that’s progress isn’t it.
even with vacancy above 3% for 2 years?
Patriot , depends on what progress looks like , there’s no possible way we are going to build more , in fact we are just building less and don’t c that turning around . There’s no money in building , so houses will be as rare as hens teeth
I think that prediction became inoperative over the last week. I don’t think the provincial government is going to give up any of its ammo until there’s more of a consensus that there’s progress on the housing crisis.
Polls asking people what they may do or plan to do are notoriously inaccurate at predicting what they actually do.
Vicre, “Most parents know whether their adult kid has potential or not.” I’m not so sure about that. Lots of parents only see through their own eyes and can only imagine their kids living up to what they themselves have accomplished – it’s all they know. My spouse saw it differently and pushed us both to create a future (education and finance) that far surpassed where I was headed before we met.
right that does sound familiar and I stand corrected, so pretty much one need to be in the pension starting at 20 years old to retire at 55. Unlikely scenario for most who had undertaken post secondary education. More likely scenario is starting in your mid 20s which then pushes retirement to 60 years old.
“You may want to check your pension on that, pretty sure If its provincial or municipal (unless cop or firefighter) you won’t get an unreduced pension until at least age 60. So even if you put in the full 35 years but if you are not 60 years old at retirement you will get clawed back.”
I am pretty sure the magic number is 90. Any combination of age and years of pensionable service adding up to 90 will give you an unreduced pension. ie. you can be less than 60 years old and still receive an unreduced pension. For info, its 3% reduction for every year under 90.
Depends on your kid's earning potential. If he/she is a competent high earner then the risk is not too great, if they are not ambitious, has average competency and is happy in a dead end career then probably should get a house while they can. Most parents know whether their adult kid has potential or not.
Ya I think str’s will be back in some form or other.
You may want to check your pension on that, pretty sure If its provincial or municipal (unless cop or firefighter) you won’t get an unreduced pension until at least age 60. So even if you put in the full 35 years but if you are not 60 years old at retirement you will get clawed back.
Thanks for all the great advise, guess it is time to sit down with my wife and have a long chat about biting the bullet and looking at SFH. Will report as we progress.
Financially this makes the most sense in my opinion; however, an older house is a lot of responsibility and can tie a person down. Personally I would prefer kids have the flexibility to peruse further education, travel, go work abroad, etc., especially <35 yrs old. A bit easier to deal with a condo in that regard, but yes risk is the spread gets to be too big and you can't make the jump.
Given state of housing and health care not surprised. Standard of living has risen in many countries and the delta different between “poor” countries and Canada is quickly shrinking.
I don’t know if it will be politically popular to let Airbnb operate again. Even if rents fall they will still be consider “outrageously” expensive.
I would personally target the previous transient zoned buildings. Given all the rental inventories coming on line with decreased immigration rent prices will have to stabilize or trend down which doesn’t bode will for monthly rentals. With the increasing likelihood of vacancy rates rising to 3% or more, airbnb will be back in business so if one can snag a 2 bed in the 600k range or lower at Era, that would be an attractive entry point.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/young-immigrants-may-leave-canada-due-to-high-cost-of-living-survey-1.5835140
This report is from 2022 so not as current as yours (2023). If I was to guess, I would suspect a poll conducted today might show the percentages are even higher.
What’s your source? Sounds high compared to what’s reported here:
https://inclusion.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/print_the-leaky-bucket_2023.pdf
Sorry, back to immigration for a moment. Reports I saw over the weekend said Feds reduced immigration numbers only after they saw the actual numbers, which were below the new target numbers. Bottom line, the same thing is happening to permanent immigration applications as we have seen in foreign student applications that being there is a slowing demand for all types of immigration.
One final note, the number of immigrants who end up leaving Canada within 5 years, has jumped to around 30%, double what the historical average was.
Nice to see detached is in a sellers market again and that should get stronger in the spring . The future is looking bright
@ VICRE when I said the pension matters more once you hit the 40s – I was referring to my subjective experience. I didn’t really start to think about pension or retirement until i entered my 40s. Kind of makes sense though since I can retire with pension for life at 55, which no longer seems like a hypothetical but like next decade.
As for the sfd vs condo – I agree with others on here. If you can stretch and get SFD get one as close to the core as possible. Make sure it has a suite. Be creative when you’re looking at houses. For example, our current bedroom was formerly a dinning room (wtf uses dinning rooms nowadays anyway). And, I saw an amazing house in 10 mile point that was overlooked by so many PLUS it was easily suitable on a lower level (easily suitable means plumbing in place – just have to switch out a couple things). Personally I would not buy SFD if it didn’t have a suite/wasn’t easily suitable (unless I was swimming in $ of course). To find the right house get a good realtor to help you – one who is also creative. Maybe Marko could help. There are some realtors who are very in the box – they just don’t get it.
Marko, “I’ve had young buyers move into the suite and rent the upstairs to make the numbers work.” Our youngest and significant other are talking about buying a condo. I’m recommending they buy a house with a decent suite / or suitable and live in that instead. Choose something older with land, maybe a corner lot for future value. 5-10 years from now you move upstairs or rent it and buy #2. But yes, not a lot of new buyers are willing to make this sacrifice.
Regarding condos lowest condo median in October we’ve seen in years. Starting to get a lot of buyers contacting me re buying condos (four downtown deals in last 10 days) and had two inventors pick up new Bosa units in Vic West in October and I hadn’t worked with investors in a long time. Prices are down substantially since peak, wage growth in the last few years, interest rates dropping and we aren’t going to see much new condo supply coming to market anytime soon. With the completion of Nest by Chard not sure what pre-sale is left to complete downtown? It’s all rentals being built.
Market bottoms impossible to time obviously but in my opinion the condo market bottoms out in next 12 months.
A lot will be completed, better question is how many will be started.
Think of the massive Chard development on Cook Street where the Mazda dealership use to be. That will be completed in two to three years and will bring on 450 units.
What happens in terms of completions 2027 and 2028 will be interesting.
The gap between condos and SFHs will only grow; therefore, if I personally wanted a SFH and could stretch I would stretch. So many things you can do these days to fill a stretch such as rent a basement suite, rent a room in your main part of the house, drive Uber, etc.
Very unorodox but twice in my career I’ve had young buyers move into the suite and rent the upstairs to make the numbers work. I ran into one of the buyers recently and they had kids and moved into the upstairs and now rent the suite. They lived in the suite for 6 years. I am figuring they are up over 500k in appreciation at this point just on the fact they made a sacrifice to get in that most people are not willing to do.
I very well might be reading this wrong since stats are not my strong point, but it looks like condos have lost about 100k or almost 20% since their peak two years ago. A real positive is that the job market is good here and that helps with prices. But does anyone know how many condo and rental units are likely to complete in the next two or three years?
I am pretty sure that I am misreading the market but maybe my wife is right and we should just stretch things and go for a SFH in a decent neighborhood. Is that safer?