Feds slam the immigration brakes: what’s the housing impact?
The federal Liberals keep panicking on negative public sentiment regarding their immigration policies, and the latest move is a big one: promising to cut back permanent immigration to the point where Canada’s population is projected to actually decline for the next two years.
More specifically, they are focusing on the following major reforms:
- Reduce permanent immigration targets from 500,000 annually to 395,000 in 2025, 380,000 in 2026, and 365,000 in 2027
- Continue the efforts to reduce non-permanent residents to 5% of the population (from current ~6.8%)
- Prioritize people already in Canada for transition to permanent residency.
They project the result of those actions would actually decrease Canada’s population. As far as I can tell, not only is that a huge swing from recent growth rates, but Canada’s population has never declined in our entire history as a country.
How will that whiplash affect housing prices? First, let’s gain a bit of perspective on pricing. While there’s surely some non-zero impact from population growth on prices, I think it’s clear that faster population growth (especially from immigration) is only indirectly connected to prices. In the last two years when population growth was the highest it’s been in decades, prices actually declined as rising interest rates killed affordability.
More people is more buyers, and more buyers is more demand which eventually increases prices, but it takes some time for that to filter through to prices, especially when the higher growth in recent years has come from non-permanent residents that aren’t buying housing. So if you’re thinking that low population growth will collapse prices, you’re going to be disappointed.
However the rental market will certainly feel the relief from lower population growth. Fewer international students and temporary foreign workers meeting record rental completions will very likely swing the rental market from super-tight to vacancy rates we haven’t seen in 20 or 30 years and stable or decreasing rents. That’s already happening, with rental buildings starting to offer perks for new tenants and cutting advertised rents.
The power has shifted from landlords to tenants and is likely to shift further. I still think this shift is underappreciated in the market. Yes there will always be demand to live in Victoria, and no it’s not an apocalypse for landlords, but there are few landlords active today that have experienced a rental market like what I believe is coming. We should see a significant jump in the vacancy rate when the CMHC figures come out in early 2025, but that reflects the rental market from October 2024 before the bulk of the reforms take effect. The last time vacancy rates were above 3% was 25 years ago. I would not be surprised if we hit or exceed that vacancy rate in 2025 and may even get into the 4% range. The flood of purpose built rental supply, high vacancy rates, and stagnant or declining rents may also bring more investment condos on the resale market as operating rental condos becomes less attractive.
But what about impacts on Victoria’s growth? Will population in Victoria decline along with the national population? I would say it’s fairly unlikely. First, while our population growth is connected to national trends, it doesn’t track perfectly. Much of our growth comes from people moving from other areas of Canada rather than direct immigration. We were not as affected by increases in international students as other areas of the country, and thus the outflow will also have a lesser impact. That said, in the last two years, non-permanent residents have made up 38% of population growth, substantially more than in years past. I wouldn’t be surprised if Victoria’s growth dropped below 1% in 2025 and 2026. That’s something we haven’t seen in well over a decade.
In addition, one of the ways that the feds are proposing to achieve their targets is to cut economic migration numbers. These are the immigrants that generally come with means and good near-term earnings prospects, and thus are likely to buy within a few years of arriving. Cutting those arrivals will reduce buyer demand, though that isn’t likely to be felt until a few years later (2028+).
All in all, I don’t expect massive impacts on price trajectory because the large majority of our current price levels are not because of higher immigration levels. However all things equal, lower growth and fewer potential buyers is a drag on prices relative to if growth had been allowed to continue along current trends.
Also the weekly sales:
| October 2024 |
Oct
2023
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Sales | 140 | 282 | 412 | 559 | 407 |
| New Listings | 271 | 533 | 773 | 1036 | 1100 |
| Active Listings | 3239 | 3220 | 3209 | 3172 | 2756 |
| Sales to New Listings | 52% | 53% | 53% | 54% | 37% |
| Sales YoY Change | — | +54% | +55% | +56% | -15% |
| New Lists YoY Change | — | +1% | +1% | +2% | +10% |
| Inventory YoY Change | +19% | +18% | +15% | +26% | |
| Months of Inventory | 6.8 | ||||
Again a pretty steady week with both sales and new listings a bit higher, but tracking quite closely the year ago patterns. We are still more than 50% above last October for sales activity, while new listings remain unchanged year over year.
Sales are moving more quickly, but there’s still ample inventory to meet demand. That has kept the incidence of above-ask sales low. At around 5-7% of sales, that’s similar to this time last year.
New post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2024/11/03/october-detached-makes-a-substantial-recovery/
You have to be very careful with hope. Hope can leave you with nothing more than a river of tears when it comes to real estate. Just ask all those airbnb guys.
I don’t think you understand what I am saying
see more info here:
https://pspp.pensionsbc.ca/documents/824580/824676/pspp-plan-rules.pdf/2f3e7262-1f2a-4e64-88bb-cb07765f7f2d
The actuarial value of the pension for a 40+ year old requires much more contribution from the employer. In another word, the commuted value of that Defined-benefit pension for someone older demands the employer contribute much more than some one is younger.( keep all other factors the same), even it says on paper, employer pay a fixed amount into the pension. there is also exceptions for Police Officer, Judge and MLA and ambulance staff, and union head- no need to get into that details on here.
The db pension is known as golden handcuffs for ages and that’s one of the reasons… The longer members stay, the cost of leaving is
not saying Dee has a PSPP but MPP and Teachers are very similar rules around calculation of the CM value.
~~~
Also side notes here for anyone does not have a DB plan yet but want annuities:
https://www.cannex.com/public/antc03e.html
https://www.cannex.com/index.php/services/canada/annuity-products/income-annuities/
now we know the rate is coming down, and it worth to check in with your trusted advisors to look at options
I’m pretty sure they’re already all over that. Russia, North Korea, The Ukraine. China, Taiwan…Etc.
“Hegelian dialectic, or problem, reaction, solution. This method basically involves fabricating or intensify a problem, offering a draconian solution, then settling for a “compromise” that nevertheless furthers the intended goal.”
Nothing a world war can’t fix.
Us population in 1931 = 124,039,648
Us population today 2024 = 345,426,571
Canada population in 1931 = 10,376,379
Canada population today 2024 = 41,288,599
Let me guess…Its all relative. This will be a hell of a lot bigger than hundred years ago.
I have hedged myself accordingly with my prized “Semper Augustus” tulip bulb.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania
He’s expecting a crash (or correction), everything is in a bubble. I’m expecting a major crash in a few years just like 100 years ago. History repeats itself.
Does anyone know why Warren Buffett is sitting on over US$325 billion in cash as Berkshire Hathaway keeps selling Apple and Bank of America stock?
Saturday, November 2, 2024:
https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/business/warren-buffett-is-sitting-on-over-us-325-billion-cash-as-berkshire-hathaway-keeps-selling-apple-stock-1.7096762
Does anyone know if condo prices are up or down in Greater Victoria? Thanks.
What does that have to do with the age 40? Your contribution years are locked in regardless.
Whatever, the report is interesting but seems to skip over whether condo prices are up or down? Only mentions SFH but not condos?
Vancouver Island (not including Victoria)
346 single-family homes sold. Average price: $817,034 (down 4% from 12 months to date, this year over last). Single-family unit sales volume is up 4%. Average days on market has seen no change and remain at 46 days.
The average condo sold for $428,520. Condo unit sales are down 1%, 12 months to date. Condos have seen an increase by 6% in days on market. Average days to sell is 51 days. The average row/townhouse sold for $587,049. Row/townhouse unit sales are up 11%, 12 months to date. Row/townhouses have seen an increase by 18% in days on market. Average days to sell is 53 days. Lot sales volume is up 1%. Lot prices have increased by 4%, 12 months to date. Average lot sale price: $455,379.
Nanaimo
88 single-family homes sold. Average price: $837,950 (up 3% from 12 months to date, this year over last). Single-family unit sales volume is down 2%. Average days on market increased by 3% to 37 days.
The average condo sold for $446,528. Condo unit sales are down 1%, 12 months to date. Condos have seen an increase by 18% in days on market. Average days to sell is 45 days. The average row/townhouse sold for $568,951. Row/townhouse unit sales are up 10%, 12 months to date. Row/townhouses have seen an increase by 13% in days on market. Average days to sell is 43 days. Lot sales volume is up 25%. Lot prices have increased by 35%, 12 months to date. Average lot sale price: $588,231.
Parksville/Qualicum
47 single-family homes sold. Average price: $983,847 (up 7% from 12 months to date, this year over last). Single-family unit sales volume is up 3%. Average days on market increased by 8% to 41 days.
The average condo sold for $485,233. Condo unit sales are up 34%, 12 months to date. Condos have seen an increase by 33% in days on market. Average days to sell is 53 days. The average row/townhouse sold for $664,185. Row/townhouse unit sales are up 22%, 12 months to date. Row/townhouses have seen an increase by 22% in days on market. Average days to sell is 44 days. Lot sales volume is up 18%. Lot prices have decrease by 10%, 12 months to date. Average lot sale price: $550,771
Cowichan Valley
62 single-family homes sold. Average price: $797,188 (up 2% from 12 months to date, this year over last). Single-family unit sales volume is down 6%. Average days on market decreased by 4% to 47 days.
The average condo sold for $349,065. Condo unit sales are down 4%, 12 months to date. Condos have seen a decrease by 13% in days on market. Average days to sell is 46 days. The average row/townhouse sold for $568,823. Row/townhouse unit sales are down 9%, 12 months to date. Row/townhouses have seen an increase by 26% in days on market. Average days to sell is 63 days. Lot sales volume has seen no change. Lot prices have increased by 15%, 12 months to date. Average lot sale price: $465,272.
-Compliments to John Cooper & Associates
I don’t want to leave or risk my pension, which is db.
What does that mean?
We are thinking about tearing out our old kitchen and putting in a new one. I’ve done it before. Probably will use one person to do most of hte work since there is someone i know and trust to do a good job. But, question is, any recommendations for cabinets? I want plywood. I’m thinking of using Demxx in cobble hill.
Also forgot where the pension is. Once you hit the 40s the pension suddenly becomes very important. I am so happy that I shook things up when I was in my 20s because becomes very unpalatable once kids are here and there’s things like pensions involved.
Also forgot employment opportunities, with weather, the 2 most important factors.
You forgot weather, especially violent weather. There are beautiful places in the world that are under the threat of extremely powerful storms. No thanks.
15 reasons why people leave cities
Rising crime rates
Increasing air pollution
healthcare
homelessness
childcare costs
limited suburban options
traffic congestion
expensive housing
high property taxes
quality of public schools
cost of living
lack of green spaces
noise pollution
desire for community living
Vicreanalyst lives there
Armchair Cynics, The Victoria BC-based four piece established itself as a sturdy modern rock outfit.
They were signed by the Vancouver based Chad kroeger from the world famous rock band Nickelback.
That sounds pretty normal. You might be able to lower your premium by bumping up your deductible. Or try RBC. They seem to be the cheap insurer these days.
Looks like a typical internet armchair general post.
Is $2264 per year normal for house insurance? I use west coast insurance.
15% deductible EQ coverage. Wood stove supplied and installed by pacific energy with a permit and inspection from Langford.
Everything else is typical.
Hmmm, owned a house for 20 years and I have more equity than those that have owned for 3? Who would have thought?
And, all homeowners have seen relatively the same fall since 2022.
Millennials’ wealth has been falling further behind other generations, according to Statistics Canada.
It is primarily real estate that has caused millennials’ net worths to tumble, experts say. The data showed millennials’ real estate assets have plunged nearly nine per cent since last year, compared with the two per cent drop across all households.
Maria Solovieva, an economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, pointed to recently changing home values having a disproportionate impact on millennials.
For example, those who purchased homes when interest rates were low, in 2020 and 2021, have seen their homes’ values decline since the first quarter of 2022. The most recent data from the Canadian Real Estate Association showed the benchmark home price fell from a peak of $852,000 in March 2022 to $713,200 in September 2024
Meanwhile, older Canadians who have owned their homes for decades have seen their properties skyrocket in value over a much longer period.
Vicre, a younger thursty might have jumped on that , but i am super unmotivated now . I will leave all the hustle to young go getters
Low ball and finish it off Thursty!
You do have to have it tested. The structural engineer probably came through to inspect his open concept structural beam he installed and informed him of all the seismic hold downs and interior shear walls that are now required and need to be added to the structure or he won’t sign it off for the city.
Yes but when I got home I got $600 in gas cards plus about the same amount in liquor using the Scene points. Maybe i saved more money bc of the points? Also it was fun spending them 🙂
“Totally, lot value less the deconstruction costs.”
Yes, have you ever tried to dispose of drywall that isn’t dated stamped, you may have to pay for testing to prove it doesn’t contain asbestos. Also, costs to upgrade services if they don’t meet current standards ie. water, sewer, storm drain, hydro.
Totally, lot value less the deconstruction costs.
Wise will save you about $50 or more Canadian in exchange rate difference alone on converting 3k Canadian to US dollars vs. using a bank or currency exchange here or in the US. More if you are relying on your credit card for this.
And you don’t have to carry cash, you can withdraw with your the US dollars sitting in your Wise account in US using your Wise bank card with no ATM fees in the US – or many other countries. Most recently I used in Europe and it worked well.
Thanks for the advice. It is helpful.
The Oxford property is one that I’m seeing more frequently these days. The common scenario is someone working in construction that purchases such a home to renovate on their weekends and evenings only to find that their costs have escalated and they can’t get the funds to complete the renovation.
Properties like this are tricky for novice purchasers. Should they buy a home that can be renovated and sold at a profit or should they only pay the price of the land less the cost to demolish? Choose wrongly and it is a world of hurt for the buyer.
We’ve all heard the iconic phrase that you’re buying location and lot value. Well sometimes you should be paying less than lot value.
Oxford is a nice location , work done looks good . Just need to button it up and get on with it . It’s not 1.3 so they will have munch on they’re losses
I also use Wise, and it works for Asian countries as well as the US.
Right. Their exchange rate, of course.
The exchange rate drop from $1.37-1.38 to $1.39 was due to the recent BOC rate drop by 0.5%, however the FED rates announcement will be after the election day on the 6-7 of November, and 17-18 of December. So there is room for the FED to lower interest rates giving room for the CAD to rise 1-2 pennies.
The scotiabank visa passport card has no foreign transaction fees.
Maybe you’re a better person than I. I can’t really empathize with someone who made choices like that only to try and dump their problems on the next sucker. Maybe they had a falling out with a contractor. Some of those beams look new but also look dangerous. You can’t hold up half a house on 3 2x4s.
I just go to my regular bank and get a bit of money and then do the rest when I arrive at the destination. Don’t really care if it costs an extra 2-3$ 🙂
Despite all the cheerleading about interest rates, sales, and listings, there have been considerable price decreases during October which could have an effect on the stats for October. We could possibly experience lower sold prices this month relative to September.
I feel bad for whoever bought 1160 oxford for 1.1 in may of this year. Must have spent over 100k on work done so far and it’s only to the studs. At current asking price there is no way to do anything but lose money for a purchaser. Unless maybe a GC buys it for their own personal use – maybe that would work. No plumbing, no electrical, and subfloor only on one level. Eeek :/
I use Wise for currency conversions. Rate is better and no fees to withdraw the euros/US dollars/other from ATMs in the US/Europe/many others.
The universities themselves are reporting that international student enrolment is down even below the new caps, and they’re not happy about it:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-international-student-enrolment-drops-below-federal-cap-universities/
1160 Oxford St is another interesting one. Bought for $1.1m, gutted it down to studs and now they want $1.3m for it 6 months later. You wouldn’t even be able to get a mortgage on it I don’t think. Good luck with that…
1,204 new listings also the highest ever on record for October. October 2007 second highest at 1,169.
Tbone, the 2024 assessed value is at July 1, 2023 and would not include any market decreases that have occurred since then. This is also an asking price and the agent may have priced for a quick sale to garner more interest from prospective purchasers. Then there is the effect of any Special Assessments that may have been levied against the property. A Special Assessment is an estimate only. The actual cost is not known and could be more.
A bigger problem is the algorithm that LENDERS are using to approve mortgages for re-financing as the assessed values are an integral parameter used to determine the loan value . This could lead to an over valuation for re-finances. Some estimates are that 90 percent of refinances are done by automated valuation that use these proprietary software algorithms. The lender may be under the impression that they are re-financing safely at 80 percent loan to value ratio but are lending at 90 percent or more of the market value. Good for the home owner but it puts the bank’s stakeholders at a higher risk. If these over valued properties were to default the lender would take a loss and that would lead to higher bank charges to consumers. For the small sized lenders and private lenders this might lead to insolvency.
Thanks for the advise T-Bone.
Also, get yourself a US dollar denominated credit card. Once back in Canada pay off the US dollar balance. Use a method called Norberts Gambit to exchange currencies without any transaction fees.
“Actually, I just checked with my bank (TD) and they will exchange at 70.50 if I am buying American dollars. I am going to look around but using my credit card in the US is even worse.”
Don’ buy US currency through a Canadian bank. Best to use an affiliated ATM in the US once you arrive.
Actually, I just checked with my bank (TD) and they will exchange at 70.50 if I am buying American dollars. I am going to look around but using my credit card in the US is even worse.
Month Oct Oct
Year 2024 2023
Net Unconditional Sales 654 407
New Listings 1,204 1,100
Active Listing 3,161 2,756
61% YOY increase and the second highest Sept to October increase since 1989. Only higher increase was in 2007 with 632 sales in September followed by 708 in October (typically sales slow down heading towards the New Year).
Oh poop, the Canadian dollar is below 71.6 US, no wonder everything seems expensive. Soory, trying to figure out travel plans when maybe I need to figure out my grocery bill. Poop, maybe next year would be better.
BC Assessments algorithms are horrible in the Songhees. They are heavily skewed towards square footage and not enough towards things that substantial impact market value like inner harbor views, or not.
BC Assessments can’t even be bothered in to take into account whether a unit has a parking spot or not (>$50k market value difference).
If House Hunt Victoria has a house party….. why does the “Mr. Bean’s New Years eve party come to mind?
It might be a fun thing to do though!
Who is going to host it and where and when?
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/27603167/207-165-kimta-rd-victoria-songhees
Offered at $799,900. Assessed at $973,000 (2024) and $1,055,000 (2023).
If 2 plots on a graph indicate a trend, then next year shouldn’t price be in the low 7’s?
Sounds like the Christmas party is at Dee’s place and apparently with a little divine intervention you can turn water into wine.
If you ferment the raisins in regular white vinegar they will turn into wine. It only takes 5 weeks.
I think these immigration changes could be hugely impactful for housing, but the actual outcomes are such a wild card.
I mean the rate of population growth is so rapid it’s hard to keep pace with the change. Over 3% population growth per year. And the current government has sat on their laurels and reacted with shockingly little urgency.
Even the 6.8% estimate of temporary foreign workers and students that Leo mentions is probably out of date. The Globe recently put the number at 7.3%, which is expected given the continued rapid growth this year.
Also while the direct effect of population growth is more on rents than on home prices, I really think that it’s easy to discount the indirect effect on market psychology.
For years now markets like Toronto and Vancouver have been price well above what fundamentals (rents, interest rates, demand versus supply) would predict. I recall IMf researchers modelled this in 2019.
That exists because of a speculative market psychology that keeps pushing investors to funnel money into housing, mostly to buy condos which will be rented out. The rapidly rising population feeds this psychology that there will always been more demand to rent your overpriced, tiny condo to someone who can’t afford a big enough place to live in.
So all of that said: if the population rate actually falls I suspect there will be a significant effect on housing prices.
But I really don’t see what evidence this government has given us that they can stick to their promises on cutting back on temporary residents and immigration. I have a suspicion they will kick the can down the road to the next government.
Great idea, it’ll be ready to eat when you arrive.
I’ll bring the moose strapped to the hood of my Tesla.
If there’s a hh Christmas party I will bring the finger snacks
Re hydrate them and turn them back into grapes.
Do you have decorations out so the trick-or-treaters know to come to your door?
Also, you should upgrade the treats you are giving out.
Put them on your cereal.
I had one trick or treater , I’m stuck with 125 small box’s of raisins . I guess I can hand them out next year that’s the good thing about raisins
October 31 2024. Bank of Canada could deliver another bigger rate cut again amid signs economy stalled.
https://globalnews.ca/news/10840329/august-gdp-2024-canada-economy/
Dude. That sounds like something Vladimir Putin would say to Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
T bone, it’s 1 and done for me , my days of 2 beers till 2 in the morning are well behind me
Based on your moniker wouldn’t a win, win be 2 beers?
Trick or treat on O.B ave . Drink a beer at the penny while the kids trick and treat , it’s a win win
Purchased for $1,920,000 in 2016 and at the end of the day you need a place to live.
Seems like the higher end properties have dropped big time. Could be a good time to buy if you’re in that market.
8381 Lochside is an interesting one. Sold yesterday for $2.525m, originally listed in Nov of 2023 for $3.888m. A 35% drop! They made a 3.8% annual return since 2016 before fees, taxes, inflation or the reno. And the reno included making two suites with their own kitchens. The market return over that time would have been wild. They must have needed the sale. Weird to see this when the market is picking up.
So almost a mil for a 3 bedroom condo close to town seems reasonable . Nice to see an affordable place for a young family starting out . That’s gonna look cheap in a few years
The conversation was pertaining to MMI not massive commercial office space projects?
When you are at the level of Jawl/Townline/Chard/Bosa $2 to $5 million in civil costs isn’t a huge issue as you are spreading out over 100-500 units. When you are doing a MMI project 700k is an insane amount per unit.
Can get a townhouse with outdoor space for cheaper so what is the value proposition?
Robert Jawl will get a different response from the City. Aryze isn’t an established major player despite the press they get, keep in mind these guys were building SFHs 6 years ago until a large investment that enabled them to expand into multi units. I am not saying the sidewalk in particular is negotiable but there is different negotiating room depending on who you are.
There always people that want new and will pay a premium
Unfortunately when u do a project and bring it to market u just have to add your margin and that’s it , that’s the price .
I talked to Luke from Aryze a couple of months ago and they are not getting any breaks from the city either – he said on one project the COV is charging them $40k to “rent” the boulevard.
When they send you something like this for “tree replacement” for COV trees that need to be taken down because the COV wants a new sidewalk where one didn’t exist before I don’t think it is “negotiable,” it is policy driven. Below was on top of the 700k+ in civil costs.
M4 – $9,125
M8 – $1,250
M9 – $1,716
M295 – $17,606
Total $29,697
Brand new three bedroom family sized condo -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/27601204/4-770-dominion-rd-esquimalt-old-esquimalt?view=imagelist
Those can be negotiated with the City, I suspect another builder with higher profile may have gotten the City to back down. Unfortunately municipal governments are ripe for corruption. LOL you should see what happens in Vancouver.
There still wouldn’t be enough profit thought. Things might go smoother but the civil costs of 700k wouldn’t change.
If the builder were to do another one I suspect it would go smoother.
idk, this was the sixth comment down and it seems very logical:
The lack of understanding of some basic concepts in the general population is just mind boggling. The stuff being posted online every day is insane…
https://www.reddit.com/r/VictoriaBC/comments/1gf7m3a/do_landlords_truly_have_7000_mortgages/
535 comments you have to dig deep to find one logical response comment
If anyone is interested the first MMI permit was issued last week. Excavator on site today. Builder says he is never doing another MMI project again 🙂 Already way over budget due to municipal non-sense.
btw, hand de-construction is not required if you are building more than 5 units so after the asbestos/lead paint removal excavator was free to tear down the SFH.
Ask him about environmentalists if you want to hear bitter….
Marko, “the price for RMX concrete will increase by approximately 3% …” Those greedy developers, sheesh.
Everything still going up….
Over 650 but not 700.
Are we going to hit 700 in sales this month or is that too optimistic.
On the contrary I’m a proud Canadian citizen for over 40 years. However, I dislike uninformed myopic laggards that blame others for their demise.
Ya ok…..
I notice the avatar is now static. Even entering the entire HTML tag results in text only.
QT, Listen I get it, not everyone wants to pick daffodils. You seem to have a real hate on towards Canadians here. Are you bitter?
Deafblind generation economy.
Fixed rate mortgages often get confused with Bank of Canada’s overnight rate
Late 2025 not late 2024.
how does that happen when the BOC overnight rate is 2.25%-2.5%
way more opportunities in this generation with technology and internet.
“Your success is going to be of your own doing”
When I was 14 I would catch chickens out of a huge chicken barns in Metchosin under the dark of night with only a red light to see. There were hundreds of them for the picking. Two in each hand by their feet upside down, wings flapping, carried to the loading truck off to slaughter. The ammonia from the chicken shit was eye watering. There were a bunch of us kids doing it and it was legal.
The money was a hell of a lot better than a paper route. It was part time and the hours were great 10pm-1am so we had plenty of time for sleep before school.
Enjoy your chicken burger.
vicre, im just winging it , but im thinking between 2 and 2.5 . But yes who knows , im always of the feeling canada cant help but fuk everything up .For me i dont really care where it ends up as long its not strangling the economy .
Josh- The properties were put in my name when I was in my fifties, and they weren’t in B.C., they were in Manitoba and today they are about 5% of my net worth.
“Where did you got this info from”
Sorry, wrong link. I’ll find it…I know there is a wage subsidy for TFW.
Where did you got this info from, because your link to Canada.ca indicated that TFW worker sudo “minimum” wage will be increase by 20%.
https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-development/news/2024/10/minister-boissonnault-announces-further-temporary-foreign-worker-program-reforms-to-better-protect-the-canadian-labour-market-and-workers.html
I really don’t think todays generation is much different as far as opportunities as previous generations same shite just alittle different . We all had it hard in the beginning and that’s just life . Your success is going to be of your own doing
“You can disagree all you want, but fact is that 1/4 of the farm workers in Canada are foreign temporary worker, and the person that pour your morning coffee at Timmy’s are likely to be an immigrant.”
Doesn’t the fed cover 20% of the wages for TFW?
Lol I forgot about that. There’s nothing like being born privileged to convince you that your situation was the result of personal hard work.
I’m sorry, what did you say? I couldn’t hear you with these fancy new ear plugs I got.
You can disagree all you want, but fact is that 1/4 of the farm workers in Canada are foreign temporary worker, and the person that pour your morning coffee at Timmy’s are likely to be an immigrant.
https://www.statcan.gc.ca/o1/en/plus/6205-look-agricultural-workers-2022
Sure, but what we are talking about here with TFWs is essentially indentured servitude, not immigration as it’s historically been known in Canada, i.e. permanent residents who can participate freely in the labour market. Indeed the jobs now performed by TFWs were largely performed by recent immigrants in the past.
” That’s middle class parents working hard to give their kids a leg up.”
Okay. My oldest son is about to turn 20 in the next couple of months. He took on a entry level house framing job straight out of high school. Started at $20 He’s up to $26 per/hr now framing micro townhouses out in Sooke. My youngest at 16 years old is attending high school, I hire him from time to time doing things around the yard.
The point I’m trying to make here is, there is no such thing as a free lunch. And they get that part.
At the same time…There is a light at the end of the tunnel.
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/300-million-proposal-for-mayfair-lanes-site-wins-saanich-council-backing-9729826
Finally filling in where that old crappy bowling alley use to be.
“Canadian aren’t willing to work hence there is a need for honest hard working immigrants.”
I wholeheartedly disagree!
Max how would you feel if one day your sons are 38 yrs old telling everyone they had nothing and did it all on their own? Would you point out that they had below market rate on their garden suite? That they obviously had two parents who cared a lot about their futures, enough to think about their needs? Take notes Frank, that’s not nothing – That’s middle class parents working hard to give their kids a leg up.
“Even in the 1990s when my parents moved to Victoria the economy here sucked but the jobs my parents did (stone mason and housekeeper) were primarily immigrants.”
Even when the housing market crashed in the 80s, Canadian born weren’t prepare to work menial labor jobs.
I got my paper routes through my Canadian friends that didn’t want to deliver newspaper after they tried it out for a couple of months in the summer. I had 2 paper routes (1 morning and 1 afternoon), and I also worked with my dad as a janitor till 10:00 pm Monday-Thursday. Friday afternoon till Sunday night would be for 30 hours or more, and summer is 80 hours or more per week of janitor work, and then the paper routes on top of that.
What I’m trying to get at is that there are so much work out there that Canadian aren’t willing to work at, hence there is a need for honest hard working immigrants.
“children are willing to live with their parents for longer, thus have the financial backing to own their own homes.”
Exactly. We have two boys 16 and 19. We have two very nice self contained detached suites on the property (both 2 bed) that we will rent to them at below market value. We explain to them that the entire property is all theirs in the end.
Please read the rest of my previous post that I quote Leos, and take a moment to read the rest of this post.
https://immigration.ca/immigrant-parents-and-their-adult-children-more-likely-to-own-homes-in-canada/
It seems as if South Asian and Chinese place greater important in homeownership than “White” Canadian, their children are willing to live with their parents for longer, thus have the financial backing to own their own homes.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2023012/article/00003-eng.htm
“Leo, the “>” to add quotes feature has been broken for weeks now. It works the first time, but if you edit the post the markups are all gone, leaving text only.”
Even if you don’t edit its still broken. Entering the entire tag doesn’t even work. Mozilla Firefox browser. The feature worked great until it didn’t. Just as easy to add the quotes myself.
Don’t most wealthy families lose their wealth over a few generations? I think you can only “failure-proof” so much eventually the hungrier people catch up.
“Currently don’t see it bottoming any lower than 3.5% with variable or fixed”
2.75% five year fixed late 2025.
I agree that things are getting worse on average and will continue to get worse; however, at the same time there is so much opportunity out there these days. As a kid I had to deliver fliers every Sunday rain or shine and now if you are creative you can make some YouTube content and make just as much doing something a lot easier. Going on vacation? Airbnb your place. Have an electric car? Drive some Uber in your down time. Want to invest some $ in your TSFA into some great dividend paying companies? Install an app on your phone. Etc., etc.
Currently don’t see it bottoming any lower than 3.5% with variable or fixed
” It should be a comparison of RE returns on a down payment vs market returns on a down payment.”
No. It should be a comparison of the quality of life and how much it would suck to rent for decades. You’re also missing the principle pay down part.
In Croatia we are importing a huge number of foreign workers -> https://total-croatia-news.com/news/foreign-workers-croatia-2/ Up to 8% of the workforce and growing rapidly.
I have a place on the coast of Croatia and when I visit in the winter the coffee shops/restaurants/etc., are packed full of local young Croatians doing nothing but drinking coffee all day (in Canada replace with working endless government jobs at various levels of government). However, when you walk into restaurants a lot of the staff are from Nepal, Egypt, Bangladesh, etc. even thought there are Croatians available to work these jobs, they simply just don’t want to (I have family members that fit this mold). Same with construction sites in Croatia – more foreigners than Croatians.
As the standard of living has increased in the last few years Croatians don’t want to work in less desirable jobs and would rather be unemployed then work in a kitchen, or during the summer tourist season they make enough money in three months that for the rest of the year they will only take attractive jobs.
In construction prices are simple wild as no one wants to work construction. I had a friend (tiler) return to Croatia last year from Victoria and he is making more money back in Croatia than he was making in Victoria.
My point is I think we do need immigration in Canada to fill less desirable jobs. Even in the 1990s when my parents moved to Victoria the economy here sucked but the jobs my parents did (stone mason and housekeeper) were primarily immigrants.
Eating out is a waste of time and money. I’m sick and tired of this auto tip feature on everything under the sun. When my Wife doesn’t feel like cooking…I man up.
I think a lot of it is timing too. I’m Gen X, but I’ve got Millennial friends who aren’t that much younger. They got their crap together before I did, so bought a house before I did. So they were able to afford a bit more house than I was, but overall we all did well. Timing is crucial. I had the luxury to have my own apartment on my modest income for 4 or 5 years, until I decided I needed to come up with a better plan. Even then I was able to save, do university, pay rent, and keep the whole thing going with a reasonable amount of student loans (to top up work income). People who didn’t need the 4 to 5 years to get to that point to realize they needed a plan, are further along than me. People who never figure that out, are way further behind.
I also think the generation after the millennials has it worse then all of us. Rent and real estate went up so much. If I charted the same course I did when I was young I don’t think it would work now. The amount rent/mortgage would eat up of my disposable income now, vs rent decades ago, or just buying a home 10 years ago is pretty challenging for young people.
I do believe that every successive generation has it a bit worse. Home/Renting prices outpace inflation, real incomes don’t keep up. The younger you are, the more of your income goes to shelter, leaving you little to do much else.
Wealthy and middle class Canadians are wealthier than poor Canadians?
A staggering and unexpected conclusion.
This can happen, sometimes due to mental illness. But the much more common scenario is that young people from wealthy families are “failure-proofed” through private school education, major parental dollars for multiple attempts at higher education, benefiting from Mom or Dad’s business contacts, potentially working in a family business, and ultimately inheriting a whack of cash and property
The people who did the best after the depression were the ones that came from middle class families but didn’t have all the niceties of their peers. They had ambition and means (because they had family who had resources). The ones who came from poor families never did as well because although they had ambition, didnt have means. The wealthy class had means and no ambition.
If you’re coming from a middle class scenario, don’t be saying you’re so successful without the help of anyone and using that to justify lack of empathy for those who have no means. The cognitive dissonance is staggering.
Meh, come from money or not is not really going to change your life a whole bunch . I will take a bright go getter from a poor family any day. The best one can hope for is to come from a rich family and get even richer but that doesn’t happen to often
Vicre, yep happy with the direction interest rates are headed and I am confident they will just keep on going . I have a couple of mortgages that come up in the spring and I can save alil shickle. All in all I think I did pretty well over the last 2 years with higher interest rates .
Frank who started with nothing who also said: “I had my mother put [sic] the family house and summer cottage long before she passed.” This is a very high level of lack of awareness that we’re seeing with you “self-made no help from anyone” idiots. Frank you started with more than nothing you big fat liar.
Frank it is awesome that you were able to build from nothing. But, there are so many more that fall by the wayside because their families can’t/won’t support them. That’s the problem i think.
I do worry for today’s kids. We are planning for a scenario where our kids will need us to get going. It means we’re quite privileged to be able to do that.
Where have Stats Canada and Leo said that?
I agree and same as Stat Canada, and Leos.
However the Apologists are not going to run out of crocodile tears… “It was the boomer fault, dirty Chinese money, now it is the immigrant.”
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2019/04/16/immigration-and-home-ownership/
Some people choose smoking, drinking and gambling. A study should be done as to how many homeowners engage in these activities vs the number of renters. I started with nothing, decided not to smoke, drink or gamble. Instead, I pursued an education. It’s a matter of making good decisions. Lots of young people coming from wealthy families end up with nothing. Better to start out hungry.
I wasn’t making any comment about this generation vs that. I was saying that “study” had no separation of wealth cohort at the base comparison. It’s pitting families with generational wealthy against those that don’t in order to create the story that it was purchasing a home that was the genius financial move which caused their wealth gap. Objectively buying and holding RE does generate more wealth than renting, but that study isn’t a fair comparison.
If I do a study of the entire population of Canada and compare the wealthiest 10% vs everyone else, then the brilliant conclusions around their different financial decisions will amount to “be born into a wealthy family”.
A more valuable comparison would have been comparing people who were at a similar wealth level before buying RE. It should be a comparison of RE returns on a down payment vs market returns on a down payment. Without a level ground to compare financial decisions, there’s no sensible conclusion to be drawn. Like what’s the point in saying that people who are renting in their 40’s should have been born into a wealthy family so that they could get a university degree debt free, skip working in the service industry and get help affording a down payment on a home instead of renting?
> I mean.. they’re comparing a cohort that could afford a home to those that couldn’t and saying “look how much more wealthy this wealthy cohort is than this less wealthy one!”. Obviously buying a home has been a wealth maker but that seems like a pointless analysis.
54% of millennials already own homes, which is a majority, and so most millennials are riding the same homeowner “gravy train” as boomers and Gen X. So there’s much less of a case of generational differences. Instead the 46% of millennials who don’t own should direct their angst towards their 54% Millenial cohort that do own. And ask them how they did it.
Josh, “comparing a cohort that could afford a home to those that couldn’t … ” Not sure “could afford” or “couldn’t” is quite accurate, people make choices in life. We chose to go back to school, focus on paying off debt once out, and save for a home. And, it was not inter-generational (neither sides of our parents owned a home at retirement). It was our choice and it was hard work and sacrifice to get there. Admittedly that “choice” may not be as easy currently, but FWIW, we are still building that wealth through choices we make, as are our children.
Paying rent for decades is a good way to get nowhere. That’s the point.
I mean.. they’re comparing a cohort that could afford a home to those that couldn’t and saying “look how much more wealthy this wealthy cohort is than this less wealthy one!”. Obviously buying a home has been a wealth maker but that seems like a pointless analysis.
Gee, I wonder why Canadians are obsessed with home ownership.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-statistics-canada-survey-shows-homeowners-net-worth-dwarfs-that-of/
If you hit the paywall: https://archive.ph/56eFG
Because you definitely want the lowest wage, most unmotivated workers looking after you in your dotage.
I stopped at a Wendy’s yesterday at 3:30 pm. Between drive-thru, online orders for delivery and in store orders, the place was hopping. At least 10 employees all hustling. Those places must make a fortune.
Why should the people who work in nursing homes not be well paid?
You’re a Man of the People!
That’s not going to happen. Only 7% of restaurant workers are foreign. And the current law limits it to 10% low wage workers in any worksite. And no low wage foreign workers are allowed in cities with >6% unemployment. Those numbers are too small to move the needle and cause restaurants to close. Removing the foreign workers wil just make the business less efficient, longer waits and slower service.. Same story with other places that depend on foreign workers, like nursing homes. Sending them home just means less people doing the menial but needed jobs.
Reducing low wage foreign workers is just another dumb idea from government that will make things worse, not better
I was around before the 1980’s.
Suppose some restaurants that depend too much on a low wage captive workforce close. The ones that don’t close are going to need to hire more Canadians, and they will get them from the restaurants that did close. Higher wages, higher productivity, and less demand for housing and health care. You can extrapolate this to other sectors.
Everyone talks about Canada’s low productivity. That’s a direct result of having too many low value added workers.
Leo, the “>” to add quotes feature has been broken for weeks now. It works the first time, but if you edit the post the markups are all gone, leaving text only.
>>. They they shouldn’t be in business. Their costs are being externalized in the form of higher rents. I was around when there were no TFW’s to speak of and there were still restaurants.
Unemployment was a lot higher back then too, despite there being no foreign workers. If your wish comes true, and a bunch of businesses close due to lack of foreign workers, the layoffs will include many Canadians as well, And unemployment may rise too. If we really see a falling population as shown on Leo’s chart projections, I’d expect new home construction to fall, killing the “build, build, build” narrative. Lower supply, lower demand – hard to say what happens to affordability.
Marko-How many listings above 1 mil in the core?
Below $1,000,000 core areas SFH inventory shrinking again, down to 38 listings.
Yup I am quite connected in town.
If they pay an attractive wage they will continue to find workers
☮
“I can’t speak for the lower mainland land but this is not the case in Victoria.”
So now you’re a restaurant expert? Got some insider info while eating your cheeseburger?
I hope that I stabile population will go a long way to lowering the price of both rents and buying a house. Leveling out the demand will increasing the supply seems like the real answer to the housing crisis and a number of other problems.
Meh, a bunch of restaurants that would have gone under got saved by COVID supports. Restaurants routinely going out of business has always been one of the great things about Victoria. Just give a place a few months and then there’s a new one try in the same location. It always gives you something new to try. Now, I admit that I eat lunch at restaurants on fewer occasions now mostly because I find the service really shitty and I don’t see the value in the product for the price charged. What would bring me back? Maybe the lunches being 50% of dinner menu as were in many places before COVID, but the shittty service will probably still keep me away.
I think there are sectors that are in tourism-dependent and rural/remote areas that don’t have adequate employment/accommodations year round that will have great difficulty filling positions. Whistler for one.
It is a real issue and saying they should not be in business is not a solution. Many restaurants are already facing bankruptcy for various reasons – some directly related to staff shortages. Maybe the program needs to be altered and not eliminated. Major rapid swings in policy tend to have disproportionate unintended consequences.
https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2024/09/22/canada-temporary-foreign-worker-program-restaurants-consequences/
They they shouldn’t be in business. Their costs are being externalized in the form of higher rents. I was around when there were no TFW’s to speak of and there were still restaurants.
The BC Financial Services Authority (BCFSA) is currently proceeding with at least 18 hearings against real estate agents and sub-mortgage brokers, alleging they worked with an unregistered broker and, in some cases, applied to lenders with fraudulent income documents, sometimes on their own behalf.
Eighteen BCFSA hearings could shed light on possible $511 million in fraudulent loans
I can’t speak for the lower mainland land but this is not the case in Victoria. The labour market for that sector had already adjusted and there are actually a shortage of hours to go around now at many places.
Doesn’t seem like the federal government will be re-elected. We have another year of this platform. The cuts to immigration may not continue as predicted. Particularly for highly skilled workers and possibly for some of the industries that won’t be able to operate without unskilled workers – already the restaurant industry in BC has indicated many of its members rely on foreign workers to keep operating.
Thursty, how’s the mortgage rate outlook going for you?
Already happening.
I had my mother put the family house and summer cottage long before she passed. It’s the only rational thing to do, especially if you’re the only child. Having siblings makes things messy.
Importing half an Ottawa per year is bonkers. I didn’t realize it was that high. Wouldn’t immigration rates not being tied directly to housing prices be dependent on vacancy rate? Like the lower the rate, the more tension immigration would have to pull on prices?
Now is the time to prep for the coming storm. I bought an umbrella for the coming flood of crocodile tears from “professional landlords” and ear plugs for all the people wandering the streets shouting “nobody wants to work anymore”.
Hard to tell since a lot of the sales are by the remaining spouse who often just moves into a rental unit. I dont know that anyone keeps stats on that. I am guessing when the sale is by a surviving spouse then it is not really an estate sale. Also a real estate agent was telling me that houses are often just transferred directly into the kids name so they can be sold without the problem of an estate sale. I dont know if this is true just what I was told at a open house.
These immigration changes will do very little. Housing prices will continue to go up especially if interest rates continue to drop.
There are about 21 properties advertised as Estate Sales in Greater Victoria. Since the start of this year some 52 have sold.
Just looking at the core itself, there have been 34 sales this year with 12 current listings.
Is that typical of years past? I have no idea. To track this data may be meaningless, as in years past the inheritors may have chosen to rent the property rather than put the property on the market.
Great article, may want to think about one other thing. Victoria has always been a retirement destination for Canadians. There are less people turning 65 this year than last year and even less next year. While the total number of seniors is increasing when you take out the increasing numbers in old age homes the numbers in regular housing is going down as the boomers start to die out or go into nursing homes. Over the next five years this is really going to move quickly.
I think I read that the average age of people in nursing homes is 81 and suddenly I felt like time was speeding by. For those of us who have parents who are baby boomers we are starting to realize that they will not be with us for much longer.