A closer look at the (more) active market
As predicted at the end of September, October is going to post a very strong increase in year over year sales. With a small bump in buyers brought in by lower mortgages rates set against an exceptionally weak previous year, we were on track for October sales to jump by 40% over last year even with no change in sales activity.
Some of that is simply base effect. Last fall was exceptionally weak as increasing bond yields pushed up fixed rates and depressed sales and prices. But where is October activity compared to historical norms? Well that depends on what subset of the market you are looking at.
Last October was actually OK for condo activity. While October 2023 sales were 17% below the 20 year average, it was far from a record low. It should be noted that as condos form a larger and larger percentage of dwellings we should expect sales to slowly increase in this category over time. Month to date, condo sales are up marginally (12%) from the same period a year ago. So it looks like we’ll end up around the long run average for condo sales.
For house sales, last October was the second worst in 20 years; only the financial crisis saw less activity. But sales are well ahead this October, up some 40% in the first two weeks. Again we should end up near the long run average by the end of the month.
Townhouses were similarly weak, with last year’s sales lower than only October 2008 and 2012. Sales there have really been on a tear, with the first two weeks seeing 28 sales compared to just 10 in the same period last year. I would note that small numbers of sales here make it highly subject to noise.
Overall it looks like most property types will be close to their long run average in terms of sales activity this month, with most of the increased activity coming in the detached and townhouse market.
For all categories we are up 54% over the year ago level on sales, but the comparison is a little wonky because of the timing of Truth & Reconciliation day which last year landed in October.
| October 2024 |
Oct
2023
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Sales | 140 | 282 | 407 | ||
| New Listings | 271 | 533 | 1100 | ||
| Active Listings | 3239 | 3220 | 2756 | ||
| Sales to New Listings | 52% | 53% | 37% | ||
| Sales YoY Change | — | +54% | -15% | ||
| New Lists YoY Change | — | +1% | +10% | ||
| Inventory YoY Change | +19% | +26% | |||
| Months of Inventory | 6.8 | ||||
We had more new listings in September, so part of this is burning off that increased inventory, but it’ll be interesting to see how the rest of the month goes. Generally the fall market goes to the end of October and then drops off pretty quickly after that.
In terms of inventory for family-sized homes under a million, we are still at higher levels than we’ve seen for a few years. However given overall inventory is still up 19%, the gap from last year isn’t huge.
Overall, the market has once again tightened substantially above the year ago level. It should stay elevated for the rest of the fall, though higher new list numbers like we saw in September are always a wildcard.
The increase in sales should generate some positive headlines in the TC come November 1st (Real estate sales boom!). I could see that influencing consumer sentiment both on the buying and the selling side of the equation. For buyers, it might bring some back to the market if they think conditions are turning a corner. On the selling side, we have a pile of frustrated sellers that have pulled their properties off the market in recent months. They’re still out there looking to sell, and signs of life in the market may entice them to try relisting again soon. Either way sales volume should be up in 2025, even if the price trajectory doesn’t change.
>>> The rapid transit plan for McKenzie Ave shows one lane of traffic in each direction for cars and one for buses, with wide sidewalks, boulevards and bike lanes on each side, from the Pat Bay to UVic. Interesting
Turning McKenzie into one lane each way for regular traffic? Dumb idea. And ironically named a “rapid” transit plan. 🙂
1647 Garnet has just gone pending…you need to squint at the map a bit to know how the new Center zoning falls, but do the seller, the owner and the realtors know about the Quadra McKenzie changes? The house seems to have listed right about when the new draft came out, which I think took the 18 story max Red area to within 2 or 3 lots of 1647 Garnet. The west part of Spilsbury Cr is 18 story Red. And 1647 itself falls into Blue, which is up to 6 story. I’m curious about how many realtors and buyers/sellers know about the coming zoning changes. Saanich anticipates passing the new QMP in spring 2025.
Saanich council was presented with the Quadra McKenzie study last, the final draft of which is now online. It’s a very comprehensive document, with a notable change from the prior draft in the addition of a new Center, called Gordon Head McKenzie. Since Saanich planning has put all the housing with higher density mostly within the first 2 blocks from the major thoroughfares, there isn’t much impact on many Saanich residents, with one possible exception. The rapid transit plan for McKenzie Ave shows one lane of traffic in each direction for cars and one for buses, with wide sidewalks, boulevards and bike lanes on each side, from the Pat Bay to UVic. Interesting. Also, considering that Saanich plans to implement the 15 minute city with intermittent Hubs to bridge the distance between the Centers and Villages, leaving Gordon Head and other larger residential areas basically as-is seems odd. I guess it’s politically expedient. I watched the meeting last night online – interesting to see the individual councillors questions. Some of them certainly have their pet interests.
I found Telus Health pretty useless personally, but our nurse practitioner is very helpful. At least as helpful if not better than our old doctor
New post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2024/10/21/revisiting-holding/
“Oct 20, 2024 at 5:59AM Berkshire Hathaway has shed $10 billion in Bank of America shares.
The latest sale means Berkshire has a less than 10% stake in BAC, and future transactions can occur without immediate public disclosure. Buffett’s recent comments suggest caution regarding the broader economy.”
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/BAC/pressreleases/29121771/warren-buffett-dumps-nearly-10-billion-of-1-key-stock-and-buys-345-million-of-his-favorite-stock-heres-what-you-need-to-know/
“The latest sale is particularly interesting
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires large shareholders — investors owning more than 10% of a company’s stock — to report any trade within two business days. After the last sale of almost 10 million shares, Berkshire now owns just shy of 10% of the bank and no longer has to report transactions in a timely manner. Now, any transactions will be reported quarterly on the company’s 13-F filing.”
“That means any future sales will happen out of the public eye until months later. Although this could make it easier for Berkshire to further reduce its stake without spooking the market, it doesn’t necessarily mean that is what’s happening here. Still, it’s an important factor to keep in mind.”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/company-news/2024/10/17/buffett-sells-more-bofa-shares-after-buybacks-push-his-stake-back-above-10/
“GIVE me control of a nation’s money supply, and I care not who makes its laws.”
https://fortune.com/recommends/investing/current-price-of-gold-10-21-2024/
How Americans feel about the economy depends mainly on who’s in office:
“Basically I ask very little of my doctor because he seems too busy”.
That’s because he is. There are far too many hypochondriacs out there. With our family practitioner often a phone appointment is all it takes. If he thinks otherwise he’ll book us for an in person appointment promtly. Prescription refills, specialist bookings, blood work, or just a general idea of what your problem is prior to an in person appointment (if even needed) requires just a two minuet phone conversation with the doctor and in most cases this is more than enough information.
We don’t waste his time. He already has our entire medical history at a key stroke by logging into VIHA. He knows everything about us anyway…Why waste his time?
Two stitches?
Out of curiosity, for minor problems with the kids, until you get a family doctor have you tried online video telehelp? You can get it same day or next day consult with family doctor. (GP). 7 days a week, and it’s free.
e.g. https://vivacare.ca/telehealth-online-doctor/
We all acknowledge the bad parts of the health care system (GP shortage, crowded ER), but let’s not ignore the new good stuff (like free telemedicine) and I’ve heard rave reviews from friends who’ve used it, as have I. It’s “house calls” for the 21st century,
Emergency rooms are a disaster. Had to go to ER because my daughter needed two stitches. It was very eye opening (not in a good way). That is a change from 10 years ago. I had a major surgery in April. Took me just under 2 years to see the specialist then get the surgery. And that was with me finding the specialist on my own and asking for a referral to them specifically. Basically I ask very little of my doctor because he seems too busy.
One of our family members went to ER with a 3rd degree burn at the recommendation of the 811 nurse a month ago. Was there for 13 hours – waiting 12.5 hours – 7pm-8am. Not unusual and not unexpected given that the wait time estimate on the board when we walked in was 12 hours but it turned out it was medically necessary to get treated as the silver nitrate is not available in pharmacies according to our doctor – even by prescription. There have been a number of situations in which we have found ourselves with family members in ER waiting for excessive periods of time.
I think cancer care and life-threatening emergency care are good but everything else – really depends on whether you have a GP advocating for you and how diligently.
Having money doesn’t help if you are too sick to travel. And a lot of people don’t have the kind of money you’d need to go to the US. Very different from SE Asia in terms of cost.
Hey Patrick,
Agreed that N=2 is hardly significant, and that enacting some private pay options would be desirable rather than not having any.
One other data point (quickly, not much time) was when influenza went through the home 18 months ago. Two of our kids had fevers that spiked up into 106F territory repeatedly, hovering in the 104-106F region for over a week. The wife (RN) finally took them into the ER to get some sort of check in as fever at those high temperatures for long periods is not a good thing especially for littles. They had a similar experience to mine, with the addition of dressing down my wife for bringing the kids to the ER and wasting their time. There’s other examples too. N=3 is not better than N=2, but those limited encounters we’ve had with MSP have been so wildly different than our experience in the States (WA, CA, NY, even MT) as to give an extremely negative impression.
But where are these people that are hurting? Our current unemployment rate is 6.6%. Look at the full dataset here: https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/unemployment-rate. There really aren’t that many times where it’s been lower. In fact it was higher than that pretty much continuously from 1975 to 2005.
I don’t feel personal financial pain when I look at a government deficit or a lower than expected GDP. $5B is not a small sum but to put it in perspective, that’s less than 1/3rd of Site C. The private sector investment in BC LNG is north of $20B. I don’t need the balance sheet to say $0 at the end of every year. If we swing a few billion, I’m ok with that.
I haven’t seen Stats Can back-able evidence that economic pain right now is reaching some kind of peak. And I certainly haven’t seen anything ever to suggest that a conservative government is any kind of remedy for economics.
Depends if they want to work or not. I had person turn down $25 per hour for unskilled, untrained work. They had no experience and no education, but they thought the pay was beneath them. I guess folks can still get what they want without being employed. I guess there’s quite a few that believe their influencer career will take off or their innate talent will be discovered that they have probably put no effort into either. However, the world is unfair and they being kept down..lol..
For sure, there is the too much radiation from medical imaging argument but I’ll take my chances versus something not being caught early enough.
In relation to the wealth of the country it is not where it needs to be imo.
The employment situation is pretty rough for young people. But with the outflow in NPRs that may be quite temporary.
Weirder is how the US economy has been doing amazing and yet half the folks there thinks it’s awful.
On the other side of this we have serious harms done to people by overly aggressive medical treatment for things that turned out to not require intervention. Not saying that as an excuse for our lacking preventative care, but there’s certainly such a thing as too much medical intervention.
As for our medical system, I’ve been bouncing around various specialists for the last two years trying to get to the bottom of some health issues and generally I found the system has worked well. Never had an issue accessing scans or appointments. Also very prompt and seemingly successful treatment for family member with cancer. It’s far from perfect, but it’s also not the dumpster fire it’s often portrayed as.
Like housing I too am fine with the state of the health care here . Like housing it’s not going to change it’s just what we have and be accepting of it . The thing is to have deep pockets and just skate around these issues , I find private care to be great just gotta pay
Dealt with that this year. Sold a condo in Victoria for a couple that moved to Richmond due to health problems they were dealing with in Seattle and the ferry was too much.
I don’t think that’s the right question. Although a lot of people are obviously hurting, I agree the economy is pretty strong, and may well skate by a recession now with rates dropping fast. I just think the economy being pretty strong (and stock markets being up) is only one measure, and could well be skewed by the very things I find troubling, ie. gov’t pumping out streams of money beyond what is sustainable will pump up “the economy” like it’s on crack, but if it’s not sustainable, it’s robbing from the future. As a younger guy, aren’t you concerned about racking up this sort of intergenerational debt at a crazy rate? I mean Horgan was running what, a $5 billion surplus, now it’s about that in deficit (in no time flat)? If it’s not anchored and not sustainable, how can that be a sound plan? I don’t know why as an older person I’m more upset about that than you would be.
Extrapolate to the Feds, you have a guy who ran on deficit spending even while the economy was sound, what could be more objectionable in terms of saddling future generations with debt. The sound way to use deficit spending is to use it when things are in decline or recession and then replenish when things are good. Hard to see this discipline with a 4 year election cycle though.
I realize POV on this depends also on the sources we are reading, and the more polarized things get the more we’re likely to just read things that provide confirmation bias. Here’s from the Vancouver Sun last summer commenting on the NDP spending:
“The frantic effort to shovel the money out the door before the March 31 end of the financial year produced some farcical moments in the legislature as ministers tried to explain what they intended to do with the blank cheques handed to them by the premier.”
@Patrick I read the report – can’t remember the name – where they compare health care systems internationally. The thing about the US is that many people can’t access the care – but those who can do get excellent care. So the resources are concentrated and not widely available. That’s why I’m not persuaded by the arguments from those here arguing for a more US sytle approach – to me it sounds like they’re saying “but I’m too rich to die.” So be it, go to the US and get the private care you so desire.
. >>>>. Comparing health care here vs. the States..
Comparing two cases is hardly a significant comparison. Perhaps you could explain the long USA ER wait times described in this April 2024 CNN article as “chaotic” and a “crisis”. https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/26/health/emergency-room-wait-times-kff-partner-content-wellness/index.html
I worked many ER shifts in my younger days, and the basic idea is triage – so that the serious cases get seen first and the less serious ones wait. I’d expect that your mother’s fall and laceration was considered more serious than your (young man’s) complaint of neck pain. An interesting comparison would be to see how long it would take a young man with a similar complaint of neck pain, who had no medical insurance, to be seen in a California ER room. Would he get the “white glove” treatment like your mother did?
I’ve always and still advocate private medical care as a big part of the solution for Canada’s health care problems. Too bad the Conservatives didn’t win the election, because we would have many new private medical care clinics if they did. As it is, the NDP sues and aims to shut down most private medical clinics that popup. I have private primary medical care in Vancouver. BC Health sued my doctor to shut it down, and they settled by grandfathering existing patients (like me) and stopping any new patients getting private care.
Other provinces in Canada have plenty of private primary medical care, like Ontario. For example, in Toronto you can go to the Cleveland Clinic Toronto for private family physician and specialist care. Very highly rated and similar to what you’d get in the USA. https://my.clevelandclinic.org/canada/staff
Exactly Kristan – there are so many better options but we always just talk about the US system and pretend that it’s overall objectively better. I mean, come on let’s aim higher than that!!!!
Also, there’s one of those prenuvo machines in Vancouver so even just go there to pay for the scan privately if it’s preventative. That’s what you’d have to do in a private system anyway, right?
When I lived in Asia people frequently travelled to Bangkok for certain medical procedures. It’s called medical tourism and there are some very cool packages. All of these options are open to Canadians with money – the ones who would benefit from a 2 tier system here. So it’s confusing to me.
Also, I suspect that once the bulge of the boomer generation thins out that the medical system will become better. I realize that’s morbid but also rings true (logically).
You know, it’s not as though healthcare is a choice between health care as it currently exists (or doesn’t) in Canada, or the States. There are other ways. 🙂
(Not directed at anyone here; just a general comment at what comes across as a somewhat myopic focus on US healthcare when evaluating things up here.)
I definitely do not want to copy the US system, which seems to objectively be the most expensive with the worst outcomes overall. Still, what I don’t understand is why people with money here don’t just travel to the US to get private medical care there? I mean, it’s a 3 hour trip to Seattle. If you want private healthcare – nothing is stopping you (other than 3 hours on a boat). Doesn’t address emergency problems of course. And I have no solution for that.
Hey Marko,
Indeed. Since you mention physicals, turns out that MSP no longer covers them either. Similar rationale to what you heard regarding imaging. I.. am skeptical to put it mildly.
When I did my masters in health care admin at UBC they kept pushing a bunch of ideas on us during the two year program like a one tier system is the way to go because at that time % of GDP spent on health care in Canada was substantially lower than US (when you combined the two tiers) and reducing diagnostic medical imaging in Canada due to “overuse,” bla bla, and a bunch of other stuff I look back on and can conclude it was complete non-sense.
I’ve had two family members in Croatia now that were operated on without any symptoms due to things picked up on early during annual physicals which include abdominal ultrasounds.
In hindsight reducing medical imaging likely just an idea born out of limited resources and long wait lists in Canada.
and I can see why a one tier system is cheaper, millions of people don’t have a doctor.
Hey Patrick:
Comparing health care here vs. the States.. Well, last night my mum slipped coming out of the shower and got a nasty laceration that required several stitches. Went to the ER, and within two hours got fixed up AND had a CT scan to boot to make sure everything was ok. Both of those things are frankly unimaginable here. Last time someone in our family had to go here it was me with some neck problem; there was a pleasant seven hour standing wait ending with some pills and no X-ray. Had to go to the ER on account of (1) not having a family doctor and (2) there being no space at walk-in clinics.
The family xmas vacation is paid for now so I will put a stop loss order and call it a day, no one ever went broke taking profits.. Easy money and minimizing taxes are my main focus.
I haven’t given it much thought be pretty cool getting 12k worth of SOBO shares that are now 15k and TRP is trading at the same amount it was before. Basically 15k out of no where.
Month Oct Oct
Year 2024 2023
Net Unconditional Sales 412 407
New Listings 773 1,100
Active Listings 3,209 2,756
We have an extra business day this week so I am projecting 150 sales then another 90 next week so 652 +/- for the month.
They can’t be any worse than the Liberals -> https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/federal-government-increased-number-of-public-service-employees-by-more-than-40
Could someone fill me in on all this economic anxiety talk? It’s clear that conservatives are counting on people’s belief that the economy is bad, and the batsh*t idea that conservatives are “good with money” to get elected. But how is it that people are convinced the economy is bad when we’ve been getting 20%+ returns in the last year? Not including the pandemic, the last time unemployment was around ~6-7%, it was 2016. RE was on fire that year and I don’t recall any real economic woes.
steve saretsky reporting a noticeable uptick in the Vancouver market the last 3 weeks. This should bode well for victoria as we see a rush of vancouverites coming over. Hold on to your hats things are about to get very hairy
Yes, I’ve been involved in a lot of subject to probate transactions on the listing side and the buying side. I have clauses I’ve drafted for automatic extensions if probate is not granted on time, etc.
Had a crazy one in the Oaklands area a couple of years ago. Subject to probate and then while we are waiting for probate the executor died. Took 11 months for my buyer clients to take possession/complete on the transaction and while they were waiting they got notice to move out of their rental….not a fun process.
Some other crazy stuff has happened on the listing side too. 5 or so years ago I went to sell a condo for an older gentleman as his nearly 100 year old mother has passed away. He had registered a $1 lease for the benefit of his mother on title (he owned the condo) for the last 30 years his mother lived in the condo so I am like this is interesting you should phone BC Land Title before we list this condo and turns out the $1 lease triggered probate as BC Land Title deemed it was for the benefit of his mother’s estate even thought it was for $1 and she passed. Delayed the sale 6 months.
Marko- You’ve actually seen estate sales listed without probate completed?
@Marko, I am tempted to sell SOBO now lol, I think all the upside of the 9% dividend is now priced in.
If probate has not been granted then the completion/possession date can be pretty far out. If it has been granted and executor is title than it is the same as any other transaction (other than property disclosure is typically crossed out a few small items).
The estate sale of a property is no different for the buyer than the sale of a property from an owner or investor. Possession dates could be earlier and more flexible as I assume the property is empty,. The seller of an estate property would be the executor and has gone through legal procedures (probate) that allows them to sell the property. I have bought 2 properties that were estate sales and I did not see any difference.
That’s not true of course, someone owning a corporation can pay themselves a salary and get CPP and RRSP eligibility like anyone else. There’s also the option of something called an individual pension plan which ordinary working stiffs can’t get.
https://mdm.ca/investing/investment-accounts/ipp
I am looking at a property that is the sale of an estate. Can someone explain how a property is delt with in an estate. It seems different that just a straight forward buy. What should I know?
This is correct. If you need to take out all the after-tax cash from your corporation for living expenses, by the time you add up the corporate tax plus the personal tax on the distributions, you haven’t saved anything, and are usually actually a bit behind, and that’s before you factor in the cost of maintaining the company plus the fact that capital gains realized within the corporation are taxed at the new tax rate (no 250k exemption as for individuals).
But this doesn’t hold true if you can defer taking the after-tax cash out of the company. If you can instead invest that after-tax cash in the company, say in public company stock that pays dividends, then just pay yourself those dividends, sure those dividends are taxed in your hands but the capital isn’t until you take it out. So if you can keep a bunch of the after-tax cash within the company sort of indefinitely and invest it, the ongoing deferral becomes the real advantage. Plus within certain restrictions, you can split it with your spouse. It’s a good deal.
LMAO wow you are the definition of loser. Aren’t you a public school teacher or something? This is a big reason why I have my kids in private school, to keep their young minds away from people like you.
I didn’t mean you get a new truck every year. Everything goes through the book keeper. They won’t let you do stupid shit. You pay them to keep you out of trouble. It is however a hell of a lot better than being raked across the coals as an employee. Some people pay into EI their entire working career without ever claiming…What a drag.
I’m pretty sure Marko doesn’t log the hours on his Tesla. Rather just passes along the numbers on his odometer. I don’t think he has a magnetic sign on his door saying “Marko” with a fleet # on the back of the car saying #1. And you don’t buy it, you lease it. Things like cell phone, laptop, internet, cell phone plans, printer, ink, paper, book keepers, accountants, etc are all an expense. A write off.
Glad to hear it. But I presume Marko’s lunch is quite a bit cheaper thanks to his PREC and Holdcos.
I’m also trying to gauge whether the taxes he is paying are indeed “insane.”
Based on what sense? Spidey? Non?
I understand the tax paid by incorporated and unincorporated individuals. There is no free lunch. There is on ability to defer tax to another year but you still need enough to live on so you are paying regular income tax on this amount – less any RSP contributions you make like anyone else.
What Max is talking about as a “write-off” has to be a legitimate business expense and doesn’t mean it is free – it is still bought with income paid at the corporate tax rate and which you cannot access personally then and it is a depreciating asset. If you earn money in your corporation and buy a vehicle with it it has to be used for work purposes only and you have to specifically track and log any personal use. If it is used for work purposes it is a cost of doing business that needs to be paid for – it is an expense. If you are getting “new trucks all the time” you are paying a lot for that because it comes out of your business account and you no longer have income for personal use or to reinvest in the corporation which is often required.
There are some businesses that are doing well and retained earnings will pay for retirement. However, even those that can take advantage of ex. a lifetime capital gains exemption on the sale of their business are subject to an alternate minimum tax and any passive investments in a corporation are taxed at 50%. This is why doctors, for example, are upset about the new capital gains tax changes because they have tried to invest retained earnings in a way that will work for retirement and this affects that plan. You can’t sell a practice so alternate investments are the only way to create a retirement income.
And we haven’t touched on risk. 70% of small businesses fail in Canada by year 10.
And why move “permanently”? Can’t you keep a couple condos here just in case – for some reason – a future you wants to come back?
“and kids”
could be snipped.
It’s also possible in 5 years that you’ll have a spouse and kids, so “I am gone to Croatia” would need to be “we are gone”. A very different decision to move your kids out of Canada to Croatia, let alone convince your spouse to do it.
“there are other benefits to being here too”
Like loving your Country and being a proud Canadian.
My sense is that the folks who tend to complain about high taxation the most are quite often the ones paying, percentage-wise, the least.
@Marko I agree that it can be frustrating to be here bc cost of living is so high. I did really enjoy being able to get higher quality food for lower prices while in Europe. Also I think we have taken a few wrong turns in dealing with certain social issues. However, one thing that we really have going for us, and that is always top of mind for me, is our security. I mean, we share one land border – one. And that one border that we share is with a neighbour whose values and history is similar to ours. Meanwhile things are increasingly unsettled in Europe. Anyway, Leo asked us to stay on topic with housing and I want to respect that and don’t want to get into a huge political discussion (I realize how close we are to the US election and what that might mean for Canada). I’m pointing out that the good stuff about Canada is not just the GDP and our economic system (which, btw, seems like you do very well in) – there are other benefits to being here too 🙂
“totoro ”
Dividends, RRSP, TFSA, new vehicles all the time, no maintenance cost, no fuel cost.
Every contractor in town does this. Its legal…Why wouldn’t they?
In fact they have high paid accountants that tell them to do this…They can write that cost off too!
Easy for you to research this.
The bottom line is that incorporating does not protect you from taxation. You pay tax on the money you earn in your corporation and then you pay tax when you take it out as income that you need to live on and the system is geared to normalize these amounts to what would be payable by someone without a corporation on earned income. You also need to pay to maintain your corporation(s).
The advantage is that as a self-employed person with a corporation you can hopefully smooth out your income over the high and low years and if you are lucky retain some earnings for retirement because you will have no pension.
Now lets compare this to what someone with a government pension has to do to get their money in retirement.
Marko, good to hear the market is still on fire . Victoria is suprising to the upside compared to Toronto and Van . We are becoming a Real Estate Super Power in the world
People have been waiting a year or more for an MRI in Zagreb Croatia. Here’s the Dubrovnik times, describing the “Long Diagnostic Delays”, how the wait for an MRI was more than a year in Zagreb and now they’re boasting that the wait isn’t longer than a year, like it was previously. And boasting about the new system where after 9 months of waiting, you can send an email to the Croatia Ministry of Health.
https://www.thedubrovniktimes.com/news/croatia/item/15937-croatian-healthcare-overdrive-hospitals-slash-waiting-times-embrace-innovation-to-tackle-long-diagnostic-delays
“At the Clinical Hospital Centre Zagreb, 6000 patients are waiting for a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), but not longer than a year, as it was before. All of this is controlled by the Ministry of Health, and patients who wait more than 9 months for the first diagnostic examination can write to lists@miz.hr. “
“The Survey on Income and Living Conditions is the basis for the calculation of the indicators of poverty and social exclusion for the Republic of Croatia”.
“The at-risk-of-poverty threshold: According to the Survey data, the at-risk-of-poverty rate in 2023 was 19.3%”.
“severe material and social deprivation, According to this indicator for 2023, there were 20.7% of persons in that position in the Republic of Croatia”.
https://podaci.dzs.hr/2024/en/77039
I’ll stay put thank you!
Seeing 150 sales +/- this week….if this pace continues we could clear 650 for the month. I think there is a reasonable chance we see the largest ever increase in sales from Sept to Oct. The largest I can find is 2007 (Sept 632 to Oct 708). So if we hit 650 that would be 571 to 650 and a higher increase than 2007.
>> 8 hr emerg waits
Many medical problems are minor, and unless you have serious medical issues, you shouldn’t be going to emergency for routine problems.
—— For the record, Vancouver emergency waiting times right now are between zero and 3 hours as shown on this live map. https://www.edwaittimes.ca/
—- Victoria doesn’t have a live map of er times, but people post them on Facebook and they range from 1 hour to 4 hours today. https://www.facebook.com/groups/262062873645955/
—— for comparison, Seattle emergency waiting times are currently longer than Victoria or Vancouver, at 3-6 hours https://www.hospitalstats.org/ER-Wait-Time/Seattle-WA-Metro.htm
For minor/routine problems, Online virtual visits are a much better choice, and free.
Telehealth free virtual consultation with a BC doctor online is available same day
For example, vivacare.ca is open 7 days, and promises “ our dedicated team ensures all patients receive a call from a doctor by the end of the day for quality care”. https://vivacare.ca/telehealth-online-doctor/
I wonder what kind of taxes he’s even paying, what with all his PRECs and Holdcos.
I have family in various rural places in Croatia and these smaller places have amenities such as healthcare and schools, etc. My cousin lives in a place of 11,500 population and they have a small hospital with a CT machine, MRI, etc. No on drives regularly outside of their village/town really. A bit of it is cultural – everyone wants to have a condo in the capital as there is a lot going on culturally (for example, the Christmas Advent in Zagreb is huge event every year and lasts 5 weeks) and also perhaps more job opportunities?
and rural Croatia is lovely, problem is the coast + 1000 islands (67 inhabited) is something else. I did a lot of filming on the coast this summer and need to put together some 15 videos but I’ve only had time to edit 1 so far and I started with the least interesting one -> https://youtu.be/nKoEd7nCRho?feature=shared&t=8
Unless things change for the better in Canada I am gone permanently in 5 years. My parents voted with their feet 30 years ago and left a situation they weren’t happy with and I am prepared to do the same. There is no way I am putting up with no GP and 8 hr emerg waits 5 years from now while paying insane taxes. Rather pay low taxes and pay for my health care out of pocket.
I’ve personally always thought on a global scale that Victoria was a pretty unique package (decent weather + natural beauty + economy/standard of living + health care + low corruption in politics, etc.) but now the more time I spend aboard the more I realize it isn’t so great anymore. You just get use to everything including the crap stuff you start to think it is normal, but it isn’t.
This summer I was in Croatia and I had to take a family member to emergency. Pulled up in-front of the hospital and helped her into emergency and then went to park the car. Came back within 10 minutes and she had already been seen by an emerg doc and was sent to a 4th floor department to see a specialist so I had to go up there where they were already doing diagnostics to rule out some things. Once diagnostics done diagnosis made, received an injection, some medications and we were on our way home all in less than 90 minutes. On the other hand here in Victoria where GDP per capita is 3x people are simply so resigned to waiting in emerg for an entire day discussions on Reddit are about making seats more comfortable in emerg, seriously? -> https://www.reddit.com/r/VictoriaBC/comments/1g7c4yv/er_waiting_room_upgrades/
Same with many other things like safety. I’ve had a few uncomfortable experiences in the last 5 years crossing the Johnson Street bridge that now at night I am super vigilant when I cross the bridge in terms of safety. In Croatia I just put my headphones on and the last things on my mind is safety at night, I’ve never had an uncomfortable encounter.
^Keep in mind this is all in a country with 1/3 the GDP per capita of Canada and a very corrupt government. Canada is very rich and there is very little corruption; therefore, we just need some common sense government management but common sense doesn’t appear to be very common.
“Green coalition”
You mean two newbie greenhorns.
“Will be four more years of a deteriorating standard of living to the point where people demand some real change, one can hope”.
“but now the more time I spend aboard the more I realize it isn’t so great anymore”.
Well, there’s always Croatia.
NDP+Green coalition is a have decent outcome imo. Will be four more years of a deteriorating standard of living to the point where people demand some real change, one can hope.
“Happy to see the election results . Couldn’t ask for a better outcome”
I totally agree 100%. Now they’re both cock blocked…Now that’s a true democracy. Now they have to fight for what they want and show up everyday in the office. None of this work from wherever bullshit.
It seems that the cabinetry, finishing, and windows, as well as the mirrors, all come from Surrey. To me, the hard costs appear to be around $160 per square foot. Anyone willing to pay 1.8 million clearly has little sense of value.
Additionally, there are a few Asian handymen in town who have ventured into the land development business over the years. They’ve been flipping properties and undertaking renovations themselves, putting in over 100% effort. One retired dentist, who earns cash all day from servicing the Punjabi-speaking community, has purchased nine single-family rental houses in Saanich, mostly in Gordon Head—what an impressive journey!
They don’t tend to communicate with younger folks and rarely use banks for loans, preferring to operate in cash. They’re always on the lookout for the next deal. So watch out when competing with that old fart, hard money lender and ruthless realtor(s) and that semi-retired dentist.
Happy to see the election results . Couldn’t ask for a better outcome
hmm no way to completely delete a post I guess, sorry!
Looks like they are in it for 400k+ after buying for 950k. Tough sell though, there is a brand new house down the road asking the same price.
At least the days are gone where there were bidding wars on places that had steamy deuces left throughout homes.
The San Juan house for sale has a nice looking stump right in the middle of the back yard. Wouldn’t have thought to remove that? Sheesh.
Rural Croatia looks lovely. I’m curious – what do Croatian people find unappealing about rural and smaller town life? Particularly if it is close to a bigger centre. Is it boring, lack of amenities, too much driving, crappy public transit, too conservative, or something else?
Sidney’s nice, but the proximity to the airport would be a deal killer for me. Probably some areas better than others. If I can easily count the lawn chairs in your backyard from the window seat of a 737, then I don’t want to live there.
Ever heard of 996? Japans 9am-9pm-6days per week work schedule for a 700 sq/ft condo.
https://www.openculture.com/2022/06/dying-from-overwork-disturbing-looks-inside-japans-karoshi-and-chinas-996-work-system.html
That doesn’t include train travel…That’s on your time.
Neighbour put their house on the market after a year of full renovation. Lots of traffic at the open house despite an ambitious price
Maybe, however in my experience which is recent I’d say it is not a matter of manners but of outdated and inefficient systems combined with a culture of accepting this – a resignation of sorts as there is often no clear path for accountability. The bureaucracy seemed way slower to process stuff and to adapt to new and better ways of doing things and god forbid if there are mistakes or errors somewhere along the line. On the other hand, if you know people who know people you can get where you want to go without following all the rules. YMMV.
The French bureaucracy is notoriously difficult to navigate. We actually did ok with the stuff we had to get done. But I understand French manners. For example, when approaching a French person to ask for assistance (such as a bureaucrat) it’s important to start the conversation by saying hello (rather than just jumping in). Also, the French hate interruptions and we are a culture (in N America) that interrupts regularly as part of the way we converse. I’ve seen a few people get dressed down by a French person who was offended by an interruption that wouldn’t be considered offensive here. Generally speaking I think the French have better manners than we do – it’s just that they are rude when people are rude to them first – so since we don’t have good manners they seem rude. They’re not actually rude.
I can imagine it was hard to get the French visa. I’ve never dealt with worse bureaucracy than in France. French people individually are nice but getting a response from civil servants is a chore and even things like opening a bank account are difficult and have to be scheduled which can also be difficult.
I too love Canada. We are very fortunate to be here. For many people it takes actually living in another country to realize how good we have it. Every country has its problems. Ours aren’t that bad.
Totoro, I’m with u on that , I too want gone for jan, Feb, March as that seems to be the worst of the weather . I luv Canada and it has treated me well and feel fortunate
As totoro says 90 days continuously in the Schengen is allowed but I find that 90 days isn’t enough. I’d like to do 6 months here, 6 months elsewhere.
@totoro that was the visa that we had for France. The process was onerous. I can’t imagine going through that annually for a minimum of half a decade. I have the impression Portugal is much easier.
We have no intention on moving , but our stays are just getting longer . Funny part is the longer I stay the more I save not being in Canada .
You can apply for this visa for France if you are retired and have proof of the required minimum income: https://www.service-public.fr/particuliers/vosdroits/F302 After 5 years of continuous residency you can apply for citizenship if you meet the French b1 language proficiency requirement and give up your Canadian citizenship.
I’ve always thought the easiest thing to do was maintain residency in Canada and go to Europe or wherever for three months during the inclement weather. South of France is nice at this time. If you want to be away longer go to a non-Schengen country in Europe or set up a digital nomad visa if you have this option for work.
Thursty I love France and would pick somewhere probably on the Atlantic coast in a heartbeat (say Arcachon). The issue is that getting a visa is a huge pain for France and they don’t have a retirement category (unlike spain/portugal, many other places). Even though I speak French fluently and have lived there, I’m just not sure it would be easy enough to go between France and Canada. Unless I’m missing some visa category. I thought about trying to claim via ancestry but turns out that France only does 1-2 generations for that.
patrick, i like how your thinking, just to add i think inventory is a head deek, wont be enough good homes for a busy spring market
According to Teranet, Victoria benchmark prices are already up 8.2% from the bottom. Bottom was March 2023 (268.25 index), and latest (Sept. 2024) reading is 290.25 (+8.2% from March 2023 bottom). And that’s within spitting distance (4.7%) of the March 2022 peak (304). I expect with these falling rates and no recession we will easily hit a new peak in spring.
https://housepriceindex.ca/2024/10/september2024/
Next msg
Vicre , nope , interest rates are going to be point lower , and sales and prices will be up imo.
We live fairly close to Sidney and do a lot of day-to-day activities there, and yes, it’s a retirement type of community in many ways, but it’s also changing pretty fast, more of a mix of people and mix of buildings/new restaurants sort of thing even just in the last couple of years. I think it’s a pretty nice, very walkable community, and the commute to Victoria is no big deal so long as you time ferry traffic appropriately. On paper, it’s about the same distance (to downtown) as, say, Mill Bay, but in practice, it’s pretty convenient.
Still some decent values here, and a nice, laid-back vibe, and we find the proximity to the ferries and the airport pretty convenient. In the summers, we have a lot of people coming over from Vancouver just as walk-ons for the day as we can pick them up in 5 minutes. And if you’re into boating, you can’t beat this location.
Downside to living with a bunch of fellow older folks is that things get full at surprising times of day, eg an afternoon matinee at the theatre will often be full, or suddenly at say 2 p.m. a restaurant may be packed, or any reasonable show at the Mary Winspear centre will be packed. OTOH, if you want to get something to eat say at 7 p.m. instead of early-bird, you’ll have no problem!
I don’t mind Sidney. Really flat so easy enough to go grab groceries on foot, etc., and I love being able to walk to amenities. Also some of my fav resturants including Maria’s Soulvaki. I just wish there was a bit more going on after 5 pm. Also, I’ll take the Sidney to DT Vic commute any day over Langford DT vic even thought it is double the distance.
Dee, Poertugal would be a great country to semi retire similar to south of Spain but a lil cheaper living . If u havnt checked it out Collioure in the south of France is our choice
So you are walking back all the talk on the spring market now?
Right. In Croatia, the urban population is steady or slightly increasing, but the rural population is in steady decline. Down by 50% since 1960. Obviously falling population reduces demand and hurts RE values.
Vicre, I’m not big on predicting where markets are going , I just need the direction and that’s good enough for me to invest . How long it takes to get there or how hot or how high who knows
But the interesting is that out of the 7 times listed he never managed to capture a period when the market was hot. Point was made to thursty that if you want predict the market then you will most likely be left thirsty.
Thank you Marko, I am about to explore townhouses in Sidney, seems like a reasonable travel time. Someone said there is a lot of old people there but I am not sure that it is a bad thing.
Can’t see many people buying at BM One with kids. For the same price you can buy a townhome in Royal Bay close to schools.
Builder has had his house listed seven times since 2012…..and price has increased by 3.7 million during all the re-lists over the last 12 years. I would say he is simply ready to sell at any time, for the right price that is.
I have a friend who bought a new 2 bed condo for her and her 2 kids in downtown Vancouver. She’s very happy with it. In bear one I guess if you plan on staying for at least 5 years could be ok. Because I bet the value won’t go up too much (but I could be wrong).
Thanks Dee, that is helpful. They are supposed to be building a shopping plaza on Bear Mountain but someone else has said that they have been promising that for the last ten years. Dont know the truth of it.
School seems to be all the way down the mountain with a new one by Cosco or is that wrong?
Try north of 5, plus other projects that are north of 10. This is not some upstart amature hour westshore builder. It’s a magazine cover type of builder
I think it is a little more complicated than that. Lots of cultural difference, for one Croatians are more than happy to live in condos with families and are not on average accepting of north American style commutes.
As Marko mentioned, even the developer pays their share. Assuming it’s still the same, each unit has a predetermined share of fees ( unit entitlement?) while operating and has a separate schedule on destruction.
I did work for a developer years ago during the “leaky condo” crisis. They still held aprox half of the townhouses in one development they built that had a huge special assessment (shoddy work). They had to pay their share and between that development and others ultimately went bankrupt, corp by corp I suppose.
Vicre, I don’t know why folks do what they do. I wouldn’t want to speculate on why someone is trying to move a property that’s north of 2 mil today as I think u would be short changing yourself .
Both Japan and Croatia have declining populations. That might have something to do with the large price discrepancy between the cities and more outlying areas. You can see a similar issue in Italy.
” Why is Italy selling houses for €1?
As young Italians increasingly migrate to the city and choose cosmopolitan jobs over rural and community vocations, many of Italy’s prettiest remote villages are becoming abandoned, with tiny, ageing populations that are beginning to die off.
Some elderly Italians have found themselves with no one to leave their house to, bequeathing it instead to the local authorities, who have to decide what to do with it, while some younger citizens have inherited properties in areas they have no intention of moving to. ”
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/europe/italy/italy-one-euro-homes-how-buy-house-b2602936.html
In the UK for example, which has an increasing population, you don’t see this phenomenon. Yes London is still more expensive, but elsewhere is by no means cheap.
Not super common for buildings to have special assessments in the first 10 years (you have the 2-5-10 warranty and envelope is 5). If the pool ends up being a headache they can always vote to shut it down.
Strata corp management is usually negotiated per door per month, bit of a discount with more units so that shouldn’t be a larger cost than average per unit.
I am dealing with one wild wild situation right now where our strata council was removed via SGM and replaced with “characters” and our strata corp management company (the biggest in Victoria) immediately terminated the management contract after the new council got in. I made a few very interesting videos on the topic but the “new council” sent me a threatening email to remove the videos even thought I didn’t name the building or anyone in the videos. That’s like 2% of everything that has happened in this building in the last 6 months.
Hey thanks Marko I didn’t know that. What about special assessments on something that big? And strata corp management?
Developer has thrown up some of their inventory. There was a sale yesterday! One bed sold for $586,950.
Not sure what strata fees have to do with units not being able to sell? Every single unit including those owned by the developer have to pay strata fees every month irrelevant of whether lived in, rented, or vacant. If everything is sitting vacant it actually results in lower strata fees (water consumption is lower, etc.), and those that live in the building actually benefit.
At this point we are thinking about moving to Portugal for part of the year when we retire. I love Europe. Then again I also love Thailand and lots of people move there too. We have friends of family that moved to a small island in Thailand and have been owning/operating a small resort for a few decades. They love it there. Problem with going overseas when young (via a cash out) is that you are unlikely to ever be able to return to re-accumulate the wealth here since there is no real way to cash-in to a place like Canada (especially Vancouver Island) from somewhere with a much lower cost of living/property.
I sold a property in Victoria for a couple this year that moved to Japan and they told me they paid 140 million yen ($1.3 mill CND) for a 2005 build in central Tokyo they wanted to do some updates to.
It would seem in the majority of the world there is a huge difference between being centrally located and 1 hr outside of the city. We don’t see that in Canada, for example Sooke and Duncan are still very expensive.
In Croatia for the price of a studio in central Zagreb you can buy an estate an hour outside of Zagreb and the interesting thing is places an hour outside of the capital will still have stores, health clinics, schools, etc. People simply want to be in urban centers creating for huge demand while in smaller places you can’t give houses away.
There is a foreign guy that sells properties outside of Zagreb, check out his last five listings in the last 10 days -> https://www.youtube.com/@PlitvicePropertyCroatia
^A 300 sq.ft. studio in Zagreb will set you back another 50% more than any of the listings.
@Hopeful I’d be a little weary of One Bear personally. Mainly because it’s huge and if they’re having a problem selling them off then I wonder if the strata fees will have to increase for the people that live there to make up for the overall maintenance fees. It’s just really big and I don’t know how the numbers work on something like that if there’s a problem and also I’d be super cautious about management / the strata corp in that situation. There are a lot of amenities which to me suggests that there is more likely to be special assessments – but that shouldn’t happen for a long time since it’s new. Still, I’d personally be weary. If you don’t work in Langford I’d try to get something closer to town. What we did was decide what school we want our kids to go to and buy as close to that as possible.
https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/c9wk01d2gvxo
If the interest rates drop a half point, how much do you see prices for condos going up?
Thursty a local luxury builder is trying to unload his principal residence right now. Why isn’t he waiting until spring?
Might see close to 700 in sales , wowzee
ECB dropped rates again , look out below . Money is flowing back into hard assets . Market here in Vic is starting to pick up pace , or so I heard
Probably cash flow positive on this fine property. And that’s what’s all about. Enjoy.
https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/whitehorn-home-listed-sale-13-bedrooms
“While the listing does not show any interior photos, it does include a floor plan that reveals six bedrooms on the main floor with two bathrooms and a kitchen, as well as seven additional bedrooms in the basement, complemented by an additional bathroom and shared laundry room.“
Coolest listing award: https://www.remax.ca/luxury/bc/saanich-real-estate/4030-daffodil-pl-wp_idm00000051-978904-lst
Would you consider One bear a good buy, is it a good family area?
I’m seeing a further 5 listings since your comment, Marko. Crazy times.
no I got tuition bills to pay for my kids unfortunately.
Which means no cashflow issues so far.
Vicre, how about u just give me the 50 g and I go on vacation and send hhv some post cards of me laying about and going to f1
“I guess cashflow isn’t an issue then if no one is reducing prices”
Or they’re underwater and just carrying it.
I’ll pay you 50k now if you can guarantee 75k in the spring via a letter of credit from the bank.
I don’t know why folks wouldn’t just pull stuff off the market , wait for the 75 points coming down the pipe , relist in February and pocket another 75 g. Easy peasy
I guess cashflow isn’t an issue then if no one is reducing prices.
Another listing at Bear Mountain One bringing up the MLS listings to 34 and developer also has unsold off-MLS units. Last MLS sale August 27th so approaching 60 days of no sale. Interesting part is a lot of listings are asking for 100k+ uplift in relation to purchase price and it doesn’t appear that the market is willing to absorb that uplift.
“So with that out of the way do you want to answer the question?”
Well if they voted “en masse” I don’t think you would have seen the NDP down to one seat in metro Victoria in 2001. On the other hand, I would say civil servants are more likely to vote NDP than the provincial average. But that goes for other groups too, in both directions. And the most significant vote split in BC today is urban versus rural.
Doctors are not government workers, nurses and other health care aides maybe. I think a differentiation should be made between a public service worker who get paid by the government and actual bureaucrats, who vote on their own raises. Must be nice, how many times have they voted a raise down? Public sector workers (police, fire, health care, etc..) are represented by unions and are in constant battle for pay raises. Basically they are contract workers.
To me government worker = civil service. Public sector worker is much broader and includes MUSH sector, police, military, public agencies.
So with that out of the way do you want to answer the question?
Nope, Douglas most days 🙂
Mid-month downtown condo rentals
One-bedroom average $2,120 ($1,700 to $2,550 -unfurnished range) median listing time 28 days
Two-bedroom average $2,800 ($1,830 to $3,750 -unfurnished range) median listing time 23 days
I think you have to pay attention to who you’re talking about. Public sector is very broad and includes health care, education, police, military, BC Hydro, etc. Civil service on the other hand is more homogeneous but only a fraction of the public sector. What does “government worker” mean exactly?
>> Drove down Pandora to work and looks like more than half of the tents have been cleaned up, at this rate the area will be clear by christmas time for sure.
Right, you must drive down Pandora every day to work, since BCI.ca (bc investment – pensions for public sector) has head office at 750 Pandora. Hopefully that area gets cleaned up too – no tents but obvious loitering/drug use.
In the last week, lots of new listings for condominiums in the core together with a lot of price decreases
The median list to assessment ratio for new listings is 1.04 meaning the typical condo is being listed four percent over its assessed value. That drops to 1.0 after a price decrease with the typical sold condo at around 98% .
What’s interesting are pending sales, that have yet to complete, with the typical condo coming in a lot lower at around 0.92 of its assessed value.
A lot of this could just be due to a small sample size as it is only one week of data. However these are the things that make one want to dig deeper into what may be happening in the condo market.
Those pending sales seem to be disproportionally weighted to condos under $500,000 which may suggest that more renters are taking advantage of the lower interest rates and purchasing their first home. And that may lead to an increase in the number of non new rentals available and possibly a decrease in non new rental rates. As it is now when I go onto sites such as Devon Properties there seems to be multiple rentals available in some of their buildings. Something I haven’t seen for a long time.
Do government workers vote en masse for the NDP in BC? I’m guessing for sure they tilt that way, but is there any data quantifying that
Having the public sector vote like a bloc for the NDP is an interesting thing. At the end of the day if they voted for policies that benefitted them personally independent of the line promoted by their unions (there is more to life than your union), the parties wouldn’t see government employees as a mechanism that needs to be optimized by hiring or firing depending on what the voting block supports. If anything, voting en masse along party lines lowers your job security which is the opposite of why most people go to work for government in the first place.
“Then they should be on a construction site”.
Dude, these guys are on tranq. Why do you think they’re bent over like that. I’m pretty sure worksafe would have something to say about that. They’re fine while tranquilized…Its when they come out of it. They don’t like reality.
Then they should be on a construction site
“if they pull this off”.
Or they’ll just tip the fences over and move back in every night costing the CoV even more money having to erect the fences off Pandora every morning. You would think they would have made it a little more permanent…Not forever but better.
If you had the Cons without all the fringey BS, conspiracy stuff they would be winning this election comfortably. Basically the Liberals/BC United in other words.
Agreed. They’re in the process of moving them over to Fort st.
Like I said before, if they pull this off then it would be good for the condos along Yates and Johnson combined with rate cuts. And no, none of this has been priced in already LMAO.
“Drove down Pandora to work and looks like more than half of the tents have been cleaned up, at this rate the area will be clear by christmas time for sure”.
Agreed. They’re in the process of moving them over to Fort st.
Same can be said for any asset.
Drove down Pandora to work and looks like more than half of the tents have been cleaned up, at this rate the area will be clear by christmas time for sure.
A lot of bullshit in the comments today. Top pick is Max but only because where’s Barrister? He either died of old age or is busy campaigning out in front of Chip’s house. Thursty is bullish and Marko is still pissed about the soil sample thing. Dee is not really sure could go either way and strangely I find myself thinking that whatever is being reasonable?
On thé plus side of all this policy: yesterday I got a telemarketing call and they asked if I was “safely” able to talk for a few minutes. (I said no).
And we have 150,000 more public sector employees then we had 5 years ago, can’t hurt in terms of the NDP vote.
The public sector vote has always gone NDP and it hasn’t stopped the Socreds and BC Liberals from winning 2/3 of the time.
It’s the suburban Vancouver seats which determine the winner of BC elections and that’s where the BC Conservatives are in trouble.
Would soul testing be required to have a natural gas line installed to the house? I had it done several years ago and the cost was $25.
First missing middle policy BP for rental townhomes was finally issued this morning. Builder only needs to drop off a $8xx,xxx cheque at the COV for civil bonding, DCCs, permit fees, etc. Builder already spend 100s of thousands in on consultant costs to get the BP across the finish line.
Missing middle is going to be impossible for smaller builders and too small for developers. On top of that the numbers don’t work anyway.
One can hope, but one also needs to have enough common sense to know it won’t happen. Nothing in terms of beuracracy is ever undone. They introduced soil sample testing (8k to 10k added cost for land owner) for new city service installation. That amongst everything else will never be undone.
“VicREanalyst”
I have to ask. Did you ever hear of gamestop and wall street bets with the robynhood app?
Kids in their early 20’s became multi millionaires within weeks. Short squeeze. Those who got out early made out like bandits. Those who didn’t get out early…Not so well.
“My hope is Governments will cut the red tape”
My hope is the conservatives will cut 2/3 of the public sector fat off this pig and make BC a sustainable Province again!
Article from the Vancouver Sun “The B.C. Conservatives are worried that the vast bulk of new jobs created in B.C. under the NDP have been in the public sector.
They maintain that trend can’t be supported, because it’s a drain on taxpayers and doesn’t generate productivity and new economic opportunity the way the private sector does.”
“If” the Conservatives get in (it’s close) my guess is layoffs/restructuring within provincial government will happen. Layoffs etc..
Be interesting to see what happens with housing the next year or two. Many renewals coming in 2025, of those that bought during Covid highs. Rates may drop another 50-75bps, will that save our housing? Will prices start trending up?
My hope is Governments will cut the red tape, expedite housing. Especially SFH.
https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/bc-election-2024-conservatives-ndp-battle-over-jobs
“That is beyond childish”.
Dude, chill out or I’ll edit it again!
“No but I am plugged in enough locally to know who’s who”.
Fair enough. I know Don Mann is extremely expensive. Perhaps I was wrong.
Max, you edited your post again and now with completely different subject matter? That is beyond childish, and I’m honestly embarrassed for you.
No but I am plugged in enough locally to know who’s who.
“I don’t think so my friend”
OK. You work for CoV now?
Recession = stimulus. That stimulus needs to be cleaning up the streets of Victoria. Involuntary incarceration is the only way. This will involve building large facilities. You can’t reason with these people until they are clean. Even if its what they consider to be a mental health issue it has to be a mandatory incarceration for at least 12 months. We have to do something guys or its just going spiral out of control even more so than it all ready has.
This townhouse seems like a pretty good buy.
I don’t think so my friend
“VicREanalyst”
The entire infrastructure.
Lol what, why Don Mann? What do they know that others don’t?
Most of us are foreigners. With that said, we should all be speaking the native Kwak’wala language and all our signage for business’s and traffic signs should also be printed in the native Kwak’wala language.
https://www.hellobc.com/stories/indigenous-languages-in-british-columbia/
In van most business signage is Mandarin only. Why is that?
And I really like townhouses too.
LMAO
—————
I’ll pass on your hot tip . I’ve been hearing that same “scoop” for 15+ years. Where the Chinese are done with buying in Vancouver and look-out-below for Vancouver RE prices.
For example, I recall some threads like that in a Vancouver condo forum starting around 2006. And they haven’t stopped.
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And now that we’ve got a foreign buyer ban in place as well as spec/satellite family taxes and foreign buyer tax, there’s much less foreign buyers to begin with. As Leo has confirmed multiple times with charts. Most of the “Chinese” that are buying in Vancouver are Canadian citizens or PR and we should just consider them affluent Canadian buyers.
So, as for your hot “insider contact” tip… as Gordon Gekko told Bud Fox in Wallstreet after hearing his hot tip…. “It’s a dog, pal. What else you got?”
” Government revenues used to pay public sector wages and salaries are raised through taxes and fees levied on the private sector”.
“The situation in B.C. is not sustainable”.
“Policy makers in B.C. should be ringing alarm bells”.
https://www.bcbc.com/insight/00rp0pclur0jexrstu8gvnvou84hdv
To keep on topic I think townhouses are great if your into townhouses.
“It was good of you to edit it.”
Yeah I edited it. That’s what that cog in the lower right is there for. I’m not pretending Joe.
FYI on the rental market in Canada
https://www.reic.ca/article-july5.html
Is this where I pretend you didn’t edit your rude post into a peace sign? It was good of you to edit it. Don’t throw that karma away on denialism.
“Joe”
What did I say? I just want them to remove the spec/land vacancy tax, remove the STR ban and allow airbnb everywhere in BC, remove the vending machines with the crack pipes and needles, remove the safe supply, remove the tents, and allow the Province to dictate where the bike lanes can go, Fire everyone at city hall and hire everyone from Don Mann because they are the only ones that knows what’s going on anyway.
There’s always a few folks like Max that need to make their point in the most uncivil way possible. Shows a lack of character, in my opinion.
No peace sign for you Joe. And it wasn’t rude. Deny what exactly? That the NDP government is only days away from being a thing of the past in BC? Is that denialism? Are you frightened Joe?
“Does a recession have a large impact on the average government/large institutional Victoria buyer?”
If I was a provincial government/large institutional worker I would be shitting bricks right now with the conservatives just about ready to chew you up and spit you out. I think it will have a large impact on the Victoria buyer moving forward.
Vicre, ya I don’t know anything about the condo market so not suprised , I really don’t follow the Van market anymore. I built custom homes which is pretty low tech and even then I’m pretty much out
Vicre, investors always appear when there’s money to be made lol
I can tell you from my insider contacts that new Chinese money in Van. RE has pretty much dried up. Turns out the Chinese are the only ones willing to pay $3000/sqft for a shoe box condo with a cool design.
But those clients would decrease in a recession even if their own jobs aren’t affected.
For sure, but I also work with a lot of clients who seek mortgage pre-approval and then when approved just go buy at the top end of their affordability for everyday reasons like starting a family, etc. This is where wage growth plus large number of people union employeed, etc. helps to propell the market especially in certain market segments like Westshore townhome. I thought for a long time the Westshore townhome market would drop substantially but too many government/military/etc. jobs keep it propped up.
Joe, u just gotta believe
Vicre, investors always appear when there’s money to be made lol
If no recession then I agree with Marko that there isn’t too much downside risk. You can’t ignore the wage gains in the last 3 years, the 80k year union drone is now $100k a year. That is a cold hard fact, just look at Vic PD, a recruit starts at 85k and 5 years in that same cop is $121k a year (without any OT).
https://vicpd.ca/joinvicpd/sworn/
Lol you missed this one Thursty! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-15/china-moves-to-tax-the-ultra-rich-for-overseas-investment-gains
RE is all about sentiment, there are always people on the sidelines that have the ability to buy and in a recession that number significantly increases.
I can’t see the cons getting in. The public sector is large and will vote NDP to push them into just enough seats. It is going to take a further deterioration in standard of living for people to realize you can’t have 10 people creating policy on how to swing a hammer and one person actually swinging the hammer.
leaf falls off a tree
Thursty: this means prices are going up!
If the Cons get in I’d see a softer Victoria housing market with reduced public sector hiring. Not necessarily layoffs, but hiring freezes and thus downsize through attrition
There’s no recession coming . We are entering a period of easier credit and lower rates . Offshore investors will be back , str’s and high immigration. That’s the recipe for a hot economy , everyone wins
I tend to agree with you, Marko. There is a lot coming onto the market in the short and medium term, but after that supply is likely to become constrained. High interest rates and the lack of a path to profitability for builders have lead to a near standstill for new projects. Almost certainly this should lead to price increases, but probably not for at least 4 or 5 years. That’s what my crystal ball said, anyways…
Short term who knows with condos, anything can happen, but long term everything is going the way of purpose built rentals. Even condos are switching to rentals -> https://www.timescolonist.com/business/condo-project-near-mayfair-likely-to-become-179-unit-rental-building-as-construction-costs-rise-9556383
I wouldn’t be surprised in 5-10 years if we have a shortage of condos again.
Does a recession have a large impact on the average government/large institutional Victoria buyer?
Agree with you on condos, Dee. I would expect to see a value increase if conservatives are elected and the short term rental ban is reversed. I would expect to see the opposite effect if NDP are reelected. I think condo prices are artificially buoyed right now as a result of the uncertainty caused by the election. Expect them to fall further if the short term rental ban is cemented for another term and as new stock continues to come to market.
Power move is to buy a condo with subjects that can be removed after the election results (kidding, but not completely)
With all the happy talk / cheerleading around here, I don’t see the prices going up. It seems to be a short term bounce in sales with buyers who were waiting for a couple of years jumping in. When you look at year to date sales, it is at the same pace as in 2023. It is going to be a long climb out of the current mess in the economy and unemployment.
I think sfh will shift up swiftly over the next 12 months. The real wild card is condos. Imagine if the Conservatives get elected. I bet they will make good on their promise to reverse (or substantially gut) the new legislation on str. If conservatives get elected buy condo next day.
There’s also a looming recession that is likely to disproportionately or exclusively affect Canada. Might be better off putting your cash into equities (not Canadian, of course) and outperform the Canadian real estate market. Been laughing all the way to the bank with my 25% return this year, and that’s without active management.
Like I said before it depends on the neighborhood, see Vancouver as a perfect example, there will always be some that are affordable to local incomes, albeit higher ones. Right now $200k HHI (very achievable) can still get something decent, many newish houses in the view royal area trading for just under a million.
I agree with the downside vs upside, if someone is on the cusp of affording a sfh then they should jump in. For those with higher incomes then the wait for a recession could be worthwhile.
And it is not like we are at 5,000 listings we saw 10-14 years ago. Heading into a potentially tighter market with inventory middle of the road, interest rates about to drop substantially, cost of building new housing through the roof, number of new SFHs built will likely hit a 50 year low in BC for 2024 and will further drop in 2025.
If I was looking for a SFH I would try to buy in the next 12 months personally. I think the downsize risk is relatively small; however, the upside risk of being priced out is there.
Wait a minute. Are they basically saying that the budget will balance itself?
Beyond planning to run a higher deficit than the NDP in the first year, the BC Conservatives are relying on predicted 5.4% annual economic growth.
Only problem with that is, it’s magical thinking. TD Bank estimates 1.9% and Conference Board of Canada 2.1%.
https://www.timescolonist.com/2024-bc-votes/bc-conservatives-plan-11b-deficit-in-first-year-higher-than-ndp-or-greens-9660930