September: Market sets up for fall outperformance
After a surprisingly slow start to the month, September ended stronger, with 571 sales up 16% over last year. New lists were also up, but only 11%, leading to slightly tighter conditions from a sales to new list ratio perspective than last September. That’s despite the fact that this September had two statutory holidays (last year Truth and Reconciliation day fell on October 1st) which would have worked against the year over year comparison. The increase in sales (presumably driven by substantially lower rates) came late in the month and thus the September stats don’t fully reflect the extent of it. Watch out for October though when we should post some big year over year increases.
Both single family and condo sales were up on a seasonally adjusted basis. Whenever sales are up a little it looks like the post-rate hike period has been slowly increasing in activity, while when sales are down (like last month) it looks more flat. Either way, I expect rate drops to increase the level of sales activity moving forward.
New listings activity also bounced back from a weaker August. In fact this was a 20 year high for new September listings.
Despite the stronger sales, that increase in new listings reversed the slight slide in inventory that we’ve been experiencing since the spring market. Inventory increased in September both on an absolute and seasonally adjusted basis.
Beyond sales, new lists, and inventory, there’s still the factor of cancelled and expired listings. Those remain high, and you can think of those frustrated sellers as a sort of shadow inventory. While it’s impossible to say how many there are, they’re still wanting to sell, just not ready to compromise on price enough to actually do so. Generally they will try selling again later when they think the market has improved, or when they’re ready to be a bit more flexible on price. A few positive headlines and those sellers should come back to market to try again. I expect new lists to remain pretty healthy during next spring’s market partially due to that bit of pent-up supply.
Speaking of positive headlines, get ready for some big ones in a month from now. Last October was exceptionally weak as spiking interest rates killed sales. Unless something unexpected happens, we won’t get the same kind of dip this month. If sales stay as active as they are now, then we may outdo last October’s sales by 30-50%. That is largely due to the weak base effect, but the details won’t matter to the headline writers.
Months of inventory remains stable as it has been all year at a level that indicates a mild sellers market. The sales to new list ratio is a bit weaker in September, but still holding close to a level that would indicate a balanced market, and that remains the best way to describe the market overall.
Prices have reflected those roughly balanced conditions, with little change beyond noise this year. Detached prices were a little weaker in September than August, but this seems to be mostly due to sales mix than any change in values.
No change in how houses sold relative to assessed value in September, with properties going on average for 1% over assessed value. Condos also roughly unchanged, down just half a percent from August. Townhouses are the strongest of the bunch but as always small sales numbers make that series noisier than the others.
On the politics side, we finally have more details of the conservative housing plan, with some better ideas than we’ve heard so far. I’m hoping that both parties release their full platforms this week and will write a full review of the housing platforms when they’re available.
New post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2024/10/06/vote-housing-a-review-of-the-platforms/
I’m sure the comments will be more civil on this one, right?
Character Homes – they don’t make them like they use to.
https://youtube.com/shorts/rS7JDYjxsBI?si=ez_Nvan3oqG0nkvK
Max, check this out:
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I will get back to reporting lower rates and a hot housing market lol
Feels like I need to put some folks back on the moderation list again. Or you could keep things at least vaguely on topic
Its like sticking a penny in an old fuse box…Ya it can work for awhile.
Ya , I’ve come across folks who will will swap in a larger breaker when the older breaker keeps tripping . 15 amp in kitchens in older homes is the norm doesn’t work too well today with all the appliances on the counter
I’m not really sure what you’re on about Max. I think what you’re trying to say is that electricity is dangerous and there is a minimum level of competency required to work on it safely. I agree with that.
Where do you see this? Kitchens?
What’s the scenario here? A homeowner swapped in a 20A breaker where there used to be a 15?
“That is fine. Standard duplex receptacles are rated for up to 15 amps per outlet, 20 amps total for both”.
You are so wrong dude…You should just stop now before someone burns their house down.
https://www.technicalsafetybc.ca/technologies/electrical/electrical-assessments
What?! I saw him just yesterday in Miami.
That is fine. Standard duplex receptacles are rated for up to 15 amps per outlet, 20 amps total for both.
The number of listings for one-bedroom and two-bedroom downtown condos is evenly split at 71 units for each bedroom class.
However the sales are not evenly split as the majority of buyers in the last month have been purchasing two-bedrooms over one-bedrooms at a rate of 2:1.
That might signal trouble for investors as they typically purchased one-bedrooms to maximize their returns. Lower interest rates may have stimulated increased demand by end-users desiring two-bedrooms while investors for one-bedrooms have remained side lined. Decades of building small condos to fill investors demand for small units with little thought of end-users may be coming back to bite us in the buttocks.
Something to watch in the coming months is the spread in prices between the bedroom classes as interest rates may head lower.
Great pic , white sand and clear blu water
Patrick, you’re a buffoon.
Maggie, Your comment is highly offensive and disgusting. Hopefully you will apologize and Leo will delete your comment.
One more thing I would like to bring to the table regarding the climate change action plan in the core. GFL is a Langford based fleet of trucks that drive into the core every morning during peak traffic hours and leave the core during peak traffic hours every single business day just to pickup your blue boxes.
https://www.saanichnews.com/local-news/big-changes-coming-to-crd-blue-box-collections-in-2024-7118294
Now is it just me or does this practice seem to be a little counter productive? Perhaps you guys need to attend more council meetings…Oh wait, you can’t…too many NIMBY’s for the public to attend. No posting online anymore either…How convenient.
Max, I see a lot of 15 amp resiptacles on a 20 amp circuit and loose connections .
“Sidekick ”
What I mean is if you want to change a light fixture or replace old plugs and switches with modern decor duplex plugs and paddle switches your probably okay. The problem is wire gauge. For example if your running 14/2 off a 20amp breaker the wire will get too hot. Now what do you think wires that are too hot can do? Injure and kill people…That’s what they can do!
Max is the kind of guy who would have been changing the subject when someone mentioned the funny smell wafting over from Dachau.
Max – not sure what this refers to – the inspectors are ticketed and licensed? In CoV you do not need to be ticketed or licensed to do electrical on your own home. I’ve seen some grey areas with Hydro requirements – not sure if you’re allowed to do your own Solar without a ticket as it’s a grid interconnect.
“Meanwhile thousands of people are dying from drug overdoses”.
Which is exactly why I’ll be voting conservative both provincially and federally and I’m sure you know who I’ll be voting for at the municipal level. I also hope Trump wins!
“Max are you talking about the Shelbourne project? From Pear Street to Garnet Road on Shelbourne”.
Yeah, your better off taking Gordon head to Ash and through mt Doug to get to the Pat bay these days.
Yay…Even more fuel consumption burned in my 3/4 ton truck in this new era of climate change just to get around the south Island from job to job through out the day.
Meanwhile thousands of people are dying from drug overdoses.
“Looks good and solid. Is this the Langford hells angels compound?”
Yeah, the one that all your drug addicts paid for.
Dealing with climate change now is something we do for future generations. Doing nothing – business as usual – is not morally defensible as long as we think that we owe something to future generations.
Thanks for the comments on the fence. We will approach kindly and go from there.
Max are you talking about the Shelbourne project? From Pear Street to Garnet Road on Shelbourne.
https://hello.saanich.ca/en/projects/shelbourne-street-improvements-project?_ga=2.69605267.2018963814.1728226118-536878844.1726270782
Cedar Hill Road is having work done now from Cedar Hill Cross Road to Garnet.
Unfortunately, our government is focused on climate change, something we have zero control over. I think they are afraid of the drug cartels and for their own lives, even here in Canada.
“Where we have people with addictions, we need to make sure that we provide the opportunity for people to get clean through detox, and have the opportunity for supportive housing that is drug-free, that’s a key in my opinion,” said Rustad…”Obviously, there are more facilities that need to be built out in terms of this but a key piece here is we need to end the free drugs, the addictions, we need to get people into recovery, we need to make sure that as we build out these facilities, that there is zero tolerance.”
https://www.todayinbc.com/news/bc-conservative-leader-vows-to-end-kelownas-tent-city-and-across-province-7573001
Tough love… Rustad to end tent cities across BC. (And gain votes 🙂 ) https://twitter.com/Conservative_BC/status/1842656556015554917
This pawn shop metaphor sums it up…
New program aims to reuse construction waste on Vancouver Island
https://cheknews.ca/trash-to-treasure-new-program-aims-to-reuse-construction-waste-on-vancouver-island-1217763/
Plant a hedge.
“ This is what I mean by good fence.”
Looks good and solid. Is this the Langford hells angels compound ?
50% of the most inexpensive option is what what could be forced in replacement or repair. Typically forcing the option will likely cost more in time and effort than what it’s worth. So, approach with honey and hope for the best
This is what I mean by good fence.
I believe it is at least moderately common to share the cost.
“The fence is in very bad shape (falling down)”.
That means they want you to fix the fence at your at expense. I’d just let it fall down and call their bluff. Your not required to have a fence and it costs $250 per lineal foot to build a good fence with concrete, cedar, stain, removal of existing fence…etc.
How to Approach Your Neighbor About Fence Cost Sharing
1) Initiate a Conversation..
2) Know Your Property Lines
3) Present a Proposal..
4) Emphasize Shared Benefits..
5) Negotiate and Compromise..
6) Put Agreements in Writing.
7) Follow Through and Maintain Communication.
https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2024/03/06/vancouver-fence-dispute-court/
Pay for the fence yourself, that way you get what you want and the neighbors have zero input.
Do neighbours typically share costs to replace a fence that’s on the border of their properties? Not sure how to ask neighbours to share in the cost or if this is done. The fence is in very bad shape (falling down).
marko, staggering increase in sales , hopefully starts to draw down on inventory and push up prices . looks like a 75 point cut in interest rates before christmas is sitting up a hot spring market.
FYI for real estate agents. Source BCREA
When listing a home within ten years of the date of the occupancy permit, a REALTOR® will want to inquire whether an owner-builder originally built the house and if at least one year has passed since the date of the occupancy permit. If so, the Owner Builder Disclosure Notice must be given to any prospective buyers before entering into any agreement to sell the home.
Listing the home for sale prior to the expiry of the one-year period or failing to provide the Owner Builder Disclosure Notice, can have significant BC Financial Services Authority disciplinary consequences for the seller’s agent and can give rise to potential civil liability to the buyer and/or seller.
Off topic: Is cedar hill x road at shelbourne really going to be shutdown for 2 years?
“No you didn’t. You said an electrical inspector won’t pass anyone’s work unless they are ticketed.
Residential wiring isn’t rocket science. It’s pretty basic stuff”.
If there is an inspection involved that means a permit is in place. For most municipalities this only involves Technical Safety BC.
https://www.technicalsafetybc.ca/technologies/electrical/electrical-assessments
“Field Safety Representatives are primarily responsible for performing inspections on work completed by licensed contractors. If a safety officer has identified an aspect of your work that doesn’t comply with regulations, you must fix it and notify the safety officer with a declaration for assessment”.
The CoV has their own electrical inspectors on top of the TSBC inspectors. You need to be ticketed and licensed for both.
I can’t seem to quote anymore, has something changed?
Given the sales pace this week so far I think we might be looking at a >50% increase in sales YOY. Will have a better idea on Monday.
Gish gallop
Homeowners can do a lot of the work on their own. However, do people think true professionals are working on your typical Westhills/Royal Bay builder home? It is a bunch of apprentices the subcontractor sends out versus if a homeowner is doing work on their own brand new home they will most likely spend the extra time to do it properly.
With the help of a friend (not a construction person, in-between jobs) and my father I installed the envelope on my owner build. City inspector was happy, home inspector was happy. As it was an owner-build I thought I was going to be there longer I had larger overhangs designed, upgraded the roof material, where I put cedar on the house I put in locations where it would be easy to set up a ladder and stain in the future, etc.
Same here, in fact I think my city inspector at that time might be a HHV reader 🙂
This has been my overwhelming experience over the years….usually the inspector is along the lines “wow, who built this place – great attention to detail,” well an owner-builder built it. Keep in mind I also have the context of having attended many inspections on builder built homes with my clients (and the issues my clients have reported back to me over the years).
You have to use some common sense in situations like this. You can’t really build a home under a million, the cheapest lots are north of 500k; therefore, hippy uncle Bernie that does horrible renovations is likely not in a position to spend a million dollars building a crap house that somehow passes all the mandatory consultants and inspections. If uncle Bernie does build a crap house somehow and sells it within the first 5 years the buyer still has the due diligence of the home inspection. If the inspector doesn’t identify on inspection that it is a crap house then uncle Bernie is still liable for the poor work.
and if uncle Bernie’s rural house burned down in a wildfire last year and there is no licensed builder within 200 km of his or her location and he plans on building a suspect quality house how is forcing him or her to write an exam with questions on gas meter clearance going to improve the quality of this home? How is him knowing the legislation around selling a home protect anyone? Like him forgetting to give a list of all the tradespeople to the buyer (and both real estate agents are useless and don’t know such legislation) is somehow a huge issue in society that we need to enforce and fine people 25k for? and have people memorize such with a mandatory $500 exam? plus the associated delays of the exam.
I’ve put in FOIs to BC Housing asking regarding information on complaints re owner-builder homes and the reply I got from them is “we don’t collect such information.”
It is a huge joke just like everything else at BC Housing when you dive into it.
Nice, we hashed that one out lol .
I’ll likely be writing the owner builder exam for the second time next year (already passed once, and built and sold the home). BC housing wants to make extra sure I haven’t forgotten how to build a house since 5 years ago.
Hogwash. There are so many resources out there these days for DIY. I’ve worked with a number of inspectors over the years, and they’ve all been more than happy to give advice and be supportive of homeowner work.
Why would they issue a permit to a homeowner if the person performing the work has to be ticketed? They wouldn’t. If that was the case, there would be no such thing as a homeowner permit.
No you didn’t. You said an electrical inspector won’t pass anyone’s work unless they are ticketed.
Residential wiring isn’t rocket science. It’s pretty basic stuff.
Dad, I didn’t say homeowners couldn’t pull a permit , that’s something u dreamed up . I saiid you’re probably not going to pass inspection .
This sounds like nonsense. Homeowners can absolutely get a permit to do their own electrical work.
I bought an owner-builder-built home in 2015 in Saanich. The owner was a retired plumber if I remember correctly, so he did all of that work. He hired trades for electrical and all the rest of it. And, yes, I got a list of all the people who worked on any aspect of the home, which was a custom-built home. I did research what it all meant, and I didn’t think twice about it and neither did the buyer who bought it from me 15 months later in 2016. I’m sure the owner saved a bundle not having a general contractor adding on expense to the build. There wasn’t anything that even came up on inspection other than the laundry room door threshold wasn’t somehow quite right and there was a crack in the tile because of it. It’s now worth double what was paid for it, LOL. Wish I could have held on to it somehow.
Doing electrical work as a homeowner has nothing to do with official Owner Builder status, which I have.
As mentioned below there are conditions to doing your own electrical work. It needs to be on your own home and you need to live there (good incentive not to do something stupid). And the work is inspected by the same inspectors that check the pro jobs. After a lot of self-learning and some relevant industry experience I’ve completed work under several permits.
https://www.technicalsafetybc.ca/apply-for/permits/homeowner-permits
Allowing a home owner to do electrical work, and checking that it is completed safely and competently is a good thing. If the bar to taking out a permit is too high or expensive people will still mess with electrical but it won’t be checked and is likely to be undisclosed at time of sale. When I take out a permit what I’ve done goes on record.
“Internet Armchair General” is a full time occupation
LMAO, You’re taking advice from the same guy that thinks price discovery in residential RE is the same as the stock market….
>>> Spoke with an electrician last month for a house in the Gulf Islands. He had nothing nice to say about owner builders. The house being framed, wasn’t set directly on the concrete foundation walls and hung over. Costly item to fix.
Uh Oh! Don’t tell Marko, he’ll need to revise his narrative that “ Poor owner-builder cases are so incredibly rare in real life“.
I’m not an owner-builder, just telling you what I see next door on vacation areas like Gulf Islands. That item about reading an electrical book is directly quoting “BC Law” as the link shows. And btw, here is the book that needs to be read for an owner-builder to get going on electrical https://www.surrey.ca/sites/default/files/media/documents/BCSA_Homeowner_Guide.pdf
Anyway, maybe we will hear from some DIY HHV builders, who do have experience with actually building (swinging a hammer) homes themselves, where they did more than sign cheques on Fridays…. Those are the “real” (old-school) owner-builders in my book.
Spoke with an electrician last month for a house in the Gulf Islands. He had nothing nice to say about owner builders. The house being framed, wasn’t set directly on the concrete foundation walls and hung over. Costly item to fix.
Patrick sorry man , an electrical inspector today will not pass anyone’s work if they are not ticketed and that includes rural folk . Not sure what u do but it sounds like I can read a guide book and tell u how to do your job , yikes
Marko your comment doesn’t pass the smell test.
Just because you haven’t seen it, doesn’t mean it doesn’t happen. All owner builders that pass the test have no plausible deniability that they were not instructed on their responsibilities.
You’re talking about the big city, and custom/fancy homes. Go to the gulf islands or elsewhere up island and ask people who built their “humble” home. Home near me got built by one guy (who wasn’t a qualified tradesman in anything).
Because, contrary to what you are saying, owner-builder is allowed to do electrical, plumbing, framing and other work themselves. Of course there are limits (e.g. 200 amp for electrical).
For example, to get an electrical permit, here’s how easy it is for an owner-builder. Just state that you’ve read the guide book, and that you will do the work yourself and you’re good.
——==
https://www.bclaws.gov.bc.ca/civix/document/id/loo60/loo60/487_95#:~:text=(4)%20Electrical%20work%20may%20be,work%20on%20that%20residential%20dwelling.
2) A regular permit may only be issued to
(a) a registered electrical contractor if a registered representative is named on the permit, or
(b) the owner of a residential dwelling who
(i) occupies or intends to occupy the dwelling,
(ii) has, before obtaining a permit, signed a statement that affirms that the owner of the dwelling has read the “Electrical Safety Homeowner Information Guide”, and
(iii) will personally do the electrical work without assistance, or with assistance from a qualified person who is not under contract to the owner and who does not receive remuneration.
New homes built in British Columbia are protected by 2-5-10 home warranty insurance, as set out by the Homeowner Protection Act of British Columbia. Licensed residential builders are regulated by the B.C. Housing Licensing & Consumer Services. Mandatory warranty insurance includes the following coverages:
2 years coverage on labour and materials as follows:
12 months coverage for defects in material and labour for your unit
24 months coverage for defects in material and labour for major systems (heating, electrical, plumbing, etc.)
5 years coverage on the building envelope, including coverage on unintended water penetration
10 years coverage on major structural items
This statutory protection is widely recognized as one of the strongest and most effective home warranty standards in Canada.
The issue under discussion is whether owner-builders should just be allowed to build without any exam. I haven’t heard the argument about why this exam is such an obstacle, given the high pass rate (99% after an online course). Seems the only person objecting would be someone thinking “I don’t have a clue about building a house, and I don’t want to even learn the basics”. These super owner-builders that are being described should just ace the exam on their first try, if what we’re hearing about them is true.
Patrick, this not 1875 , unless someone is doing site cleanup there is very little chance they can do any work a trade will do and get it passed . The building codes are themselves have become crazy complex and are becoming more so
Another area where people aren’t using critical thinking skills whatsoever.
i/ An owner builder is legally not allowed to sell in the first year.
ii/ On top of that most owner builders aren’t selling in the first 5 to 10 years anyway
iii/ If you buy from a builder you are covered by a 2-5 (envelope) -10 (structural) yr warranty which has a million limitations if you’ve ever read the 342 BC residential performance guide.
Therefore, if you buy a 6 year old house and I don’t know the roof leaks or you find extensive mold as a result of a poor envelope installation or ventilation, etc., guess what you aren’t covered whether you bought an owner-builder or builder home.
The owner-builder homes I’ve seen and sold in my career are way way above the average spec home. Anyone giving advice of don’t buy a owner-builder home is giving horrible advice.
Cool thing about owner-builder homes is you, as the buyer, are legally provided a disclosure with all the trades that built that house. You don’t get that list with a builder home.
Just based on that list you can make quite a few conclusions.
If any sellers at One Bear Mountain had a glimmer of hope, the Ridge at Vista Point is now online to dash those hopes entirely.
This is how it works. You write the owner-builder exam and then you show up to you construction site and you tell your framer, structural engineer that designed your plans and has to do site inspection, and the city inspector how things should be done based on the one question you had on the exam about nailing patterns.
That’s in the big city. In rural areas, it’s not all sub-trades doing the work, owner-builder is hands-on (with some handyman “buddies”) doing whatever work they can. For them, yah maybe it’s good that they know the basics like the maximum vertical height of a flight of stairs before they build it.
Poor owner-builder cases are so incredibly rare in real life, I’ve been able to find only a few, this one for 2016 in Kelowna for a bad deck -> https://www.bcrea.bc.ca/legally-speaking/owner-builders-liable-for-poor-construction-489/
versus poorly built builder home issues are incredibly abundant.
Patrick , it sounds more about who gets to sue who if shite hits the fan
Marko , yes that’s real life , with custom homes the wives wanted to be the decorator and the husband wanted to be a bro and that’s how far it went . We just all wanted our draw otherwise homeowners are in the way and no absolutely nothing
Re owner builder exam….sign I can see people have no idea how real life actually works.
This is how it works. You write the owner-builder exam and then you show up to you construction site and you tell your framer, structural p.engineer that designed your plans and has to do site inspections, and the city inspector how things should be done based on the one question you had on the exam about nailing patterns.
Also, when you show up at municipal hall as an owner builder the municipality waves all the professional consultants/engineers you have to engage and also says, yea don’t worry about the inspections.
Even better is when your house burns down in a wildfire, there is no licensed builder within 200 km of your location so you have to write the owner-builder exam even thought you haven’t been in school/studied for that type of exam in the last 40 years, or ever, only to get hit with five questions on the exam about natural gas even thought you live in an area where such doesn’t exist.
The exam only makes sense if you have literally zero idea of how real life works and the director at BC Housing that brought the exam in 8 year ago had like a bachelors in arts or some BS, doubt she ever stepped foot on a construction site.
Also, real life some of the best newer homes I’ve sold in my career have been owner builds. A spec builder is never going to put in the effort and detail an owner builder will.
In fact, with have an owner builder on HHV and his home was a 10/10 imo.
When I sold my owner builder the inspector was impressed.
Personally of the 1000s of houses I’ve viewed I would buy an owner-builder over a builder spec any day of the week. Another real life factor is owner builders typically don’t sell in the first 5 years and after 5 years the only warranty item is structural which would be an incredibly rare defect if there are no structural issues 5 years in.
They may be there only to sign cheques, but they are responsible (and potentially liable) for much more. BC Housing says they must “directly manage the construction of your new home”. Performing the roles of a builder, construction manager and project manager. That sounds like more than signing cheques on Friday, especially if something goes wrong.
https://www.bchousing.org/sites/default/files/media/documents/Owner-Builder-FAQs.pdf
“ As an owner builder, you must build or directly manage the construction of your new home
yourself. If you engage a builder, construction manager, project manager or any third-party
to perform these functions, both you and the hired construction manager or builder are
committing an offence under the Act. You could face monetary penalties of up to $25,000,
prosecution or both.”
Whatever , keep in mind the owner builder will never physically left a finger , they are only there to write checks . Oddly enough homes are built by subtraades and they themselves are responsible for their own inspections. So a course in check writing on fridays would be pretty good though
Right. And the pass rate is quoted as 99% for the people that take the recommended online study course. That has about 6 hours of videos to watch. No one likes taking exams, but this doesn’t sound too difficult. Everyone has to write some exams now and then, especially if they’re about to build a home that others may live in for the next 100 years . And they may learn something.
And you’re right, the intention is that the owner-builder is building for personal use. Which makes a corporation an unlikely situation to own a home for personal use(unless it’s a farm corporation, which is considered OK by BC Housing). So the requirement to sign a lease makes sense.
The Owner Builder Exam tests your understanding of home-building basics in two competency areas:
-Construction basics
-The statutory obligations and requirements that owner builders must meet under the Homeowner Protection Act
It’s important for owner builders to know their liability if they were to sell the property some time in the near future. Hence one reason why it can’t be a corporation that could be collapsed after the construction is completed to escape liability. There has to be someone that the buyer can sue for damages since there is no Home Warranty provided by the province.
Personally I would never buy a home from an Owner Builder as law suits are expensive. Leaving some with a home that might require extensive repairs and years of litigation. And if you don’t have the money to make the repairs, a property that will suffer a loss in value.
Since Owner Builders have to pass the exam, they would know their responsibilities and find it difficult to evade a lawsuit. The buyer would also know the risk they would be undertaking in buying from an owner builder.
The pass rate for the exam is 76 percent which makes me wonder how incompetent the 24 percent were.
Whatever, u speak the truth . I would get a high paying mobile job and move out of Canada
There is no point in approving building sites if the infrastructure isn’t adequate to support the development. A lot of money has to be spent up front before development can occur and that money has to come mostly from fees to the developers and property taxes.
Greater Victoria is an expensive place to live and it will get more expensive in the foreseeable future. If you don’t like it – then move. That’s what happens in a free market, when cities get too expensive people leave for better opportunities and demand for housing drops.
>> >>>>> so the money is there, but it is mismanaged just like everything else at every level of government.
Nope. They’re spending it on useful and needed infrastructure and maintenance projects. Such as the list from Saanich of current projects.
Most are sewer, storm drain, bridge replacement, Culverts etc.
https://www.saanich.ca/EN/main/local-government/departments/engineering-department/current-projects.html
And these costs are rising fast, so homeowners (and developers) need to pay more for this.
All looks good to me, bring on more interest rate cuts and loosening of credit. Good for the economy and a win win for everyone
Every day just getting ridiculous feedback from the BC Housing Owner Builder Exam, learned something new today
“BC Housing won’t let you write the exam if the property is in a corp, even if you are the only shareholder in the corp. So I have to register a 15 year lease to myself before I can write the exam! Gotta love our Gov and their commitment to make more housing available and affordable!!!”
BC Housing is such a joke. They literally implement policies that knowingly make housing less affordable, not more affordable.
so the money is there, but it is mismanaged just like everything else at every level of government.
The new mortgage rules with CMHC bumping their numbers up to take risk off of the banks and onto the public along with adding systemic risk by amortization extension further diverts assets to the rich and lessens the assets of all other classes in the long term. This is how the government can let the rich obtain more, while pretending that everyone else is not loosing under the guise of equity and housing accessibility. I will be contacting multiple senators in support of heavy taxation against assets of the rich in order to redistribute Canadian assets to Canadians. The housing crisis is a distribution problem based in class warfare.
I am against the new mortgage rules 100%; however, if you think more taxes will solve the problem good luck with that. The government will manage to blow it all.
We live in a rich country and one of the richest country in the world in terms of natural resources per capita and somehow have tent cities/homelessness issues, s*** healthcare, no housing…..the problem is mis-management (bloated bureaucracy) here not lack of resources/taxation.
The new mortgage rules with CMHC bumping their numbers up to take risk off of the banks and onto the public along with adding systemic risk by amortization extension further diverts assets to the rich and lessens the assets of all other classes in the long term. This is how the government can let the rich obtain more, while pretending that everyone else is not loosing under the guise of equity and housing accessibility. I will be contacting multiple senators in support of heavy taxation against assets of the rich in order to redistribute Canadian assets to Canadians. The housing crisis is a distribution problem based in class warfare.
The money comes from different places and is earmarked for different purposes. For example there are more grants than you can count for parks and trails and ribbon cutting beautification but no grants exist for infrasture. That’s why we are in this mess. Sewers aren’t sexy. Im not saying its right just the way its structured
Seems like stretch to say we are F’d. If infrastructure such as sewer and other is falling apart how is there money for bike lanes all over the place and pimping out parks? Just in my neighbourhood of Vic West they spent a year transforming the park at the bridge from a park into a nicer park. Not sure how much but must have been in the millions given the number of workers and lenght of time.
Patrick. Exactly. DCCs have recently been opened up to fund more services as well such as fire departments. In the end. It is just a case of deciding which pocket from the same pair of pants the money comes from
not sure how a more open process actually pays for it. That’s not a source of funding. Currently it is a bidding process that is then decided by council to choose the winning bid based on several factors. Price being just one of them.
There are two ways to pay for it. DCC’s and property taxes.
There’s no getting around it, both DCC’s and Property taxes are and will be paying for the increased infrastructure costs.
Property taxes are already paying much of it. Saanich Property taxes rose 8% in 2024 and 28% in the last 4 years. Other cities rose close to the same. And projections are for city budgets to rise 9-10% per year for the next 5 years, with infrastructure (capital) spending being a huge part of it. https://www.vicnews.com/local-news/victorias-draft-budget-includes-837-property-tax-increase-7116080
DCC funds are intended “to provide funds to assist the City to pay the capital costs of providing, constructing, altering, or expanding transportation, water, drainage, and sewage facilities, and of providing and improving parkland.”
Or they could go to more open competitive processes for building municipal infrastructure.
On the topic of DCC’s. Infrastructure costs for both new and maintaining older services have ballooned beyond comprehension. There are two ways to pay for it. DCC’s and property taxes. Either way affordability will take a hit. The question is should the tax payers fund the new infrastructure costs or should the buyers of new units that create the demand for that infrastructure pay for it up front. There are one time grants such as the Growing communities funds which can be used for infrastructure but the grants are insufficient to make a meaningful dent in it. There is a growing call from municipalities to use hotel taxes for infrastructure cost but that’s a tough sell to the industry. AT UBCM this year the conversation was dominated by infrastructure costs being a significant barrier to home construction across BC coupled with the age of a majority of BC infrastructure nearing or surpassing its 50 year end of life cycle. In a word we are F’d.
Les Leyne: Ministry stayed mute as owners scammed B.C. Housing with Victoria high-rise purchases
https://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/les-leyne-ministry-stayed-mute-as-owners-scammed-bc-housing-with-victoria-high-rise-purchases-9612371
5 year bond is back up approaching 3% currently
Don’t worry will just come of the margins of greedy developers.
When did the government make up these rules on GST and STRs?
Last 24 hrs busy on new listings, sales and price decreases
New Listings – 65 (a lot for this time of year)
Sales – 36 (definitively picking up, could see large YOY gains in sales)
Price Decrease – 47 (most I’ve seen this year)
Up to 28 re-sales at Bear Mountain One with not a single sale in September. Personally in such a situation I would be looking to rent out my unit and re-assess at a later date. Odds of a sale statistically speaking very low while burning strata fees/carrying costs every month.
The Vivid condo complex was in the news.
Chard received a $53 million low-interest loan from the province to underwrite below-market sales of suites listed at an average of 12 per cent below market rates.
Some purchasers have claimed they were unaware they were buying into an affordable home-ownership scheme and have challenged claims the units were sold below market rate.
Victoria proposing a 258 percent increase in DCC . Not going to help with affordability, governments keep on piling it on
Not blaming the messenger just wanting to get some clarity on the issue. The issue goes back to the original Contract of Sale and Purchase on some of the STRs that I have seen. I stopped doing STRs in 2021 because I couldn’t get confirmation if the purchaser was using the condo for personal use or a long term rental. The Contracts did not disclose if the unit was for short term or long term use or if GST was applicable. That may be different today.
This could be a real dog’s breakfast for some.
Don’t blame the messenger (taxable and exempt are referring to GST):
Taxable sales of previously occupied residential complexes
General rule: exempt
Sch. V, Part I, s 2
Improvement
ss 123(1)
Income Tax Act
s 54
Taxable sale of “used” residential complex
Isn’t usually the buyer that pays the GST? The seller collects the GST and submits it. You would need to register for the GST for input credits. Assuming only one rental, if the income from the short term rental is below $30,000 then it isn’t necessary to register for the GST.
If I buy a pogo stick for personal use, I pay GST when I buy it. When I sell said pogo stick I don’t charge GST.
If I buy said pogo stick to add to my business of renting pogo sticks, I pay GST but get a credit as it’s used in commercial activity. When I sell the used pogo stick later on I charge GST.
It’s not different for new condos rented short-term. They are used in commercial activity (and actual zoning is irrelevant to the discussion).
No, 50% of the difference would be added to your taxable income. That’s inclusion rate, not tax rate.
As an example for simplicity purposes.
If one bought a fractional interest in condominium situated in an operating Hotel and used it as a short term rental. That would be a commercial use and not a residential use.
Another example is in a Hotel where you can purchase a unit for year round personal use or put the condominium into the rental pool that are being let out along with the remaining hotel rooms. In the former it would be a residential use in the latter it would be a commercial use.
It likely gets more complicated when one mixes personal and commercial uses.
Is the Janion or ERA a Hotel or a residential condominium complex? Neither one have the amenities, reception facilities or zoning as does the Oak Bay Beach Hotel, Victoria Regent, or the Parkside Victoria Resort.
I disagree, a rented condo is not a commercial property, it is a residential property. I know, I own a commercial property and my tenant pays GST on their rent. Do short term tenants pay GST. I don’t know, I don’t own a short term rental. Does Marko collect GST when he rents out his condo? That’s considered a short term rental. It is all very messy and convoluted, typical government making up rules as they go along.
Thanks Westerly. For example: if an investor bought an impaired condo for $300,000 with a Special Assessment of $175,000. Total of $475,000.
In simple terms, the higher tax rate at 66% would not kick in until the rental property reached a value of $725,000. One would pay 50% inclusion rate on the difference between $475,000 and $725,000.
Frank, “GST only applies to commercial properties, not residential.” If a brand new property, say a condo, is rented short term it is considered to be used in a commercial activity and does not become a “used residential.” On sale or changing to long term the owner has to either charge GST or self-assess the GST as though they just sold it to themselves.
Whatever, “I suppose that means you think it is a positive for investors to buy a condo needing repairs as the first $250,000 after adjusting for the cost is not taxable.” I wouldn’t buy a condo atm, but if I wanted to and could get a good deal on a distressed property that I could see light at the end of the tunnel, then sure it would be positive.
As for the capital gain, not quite following. Selling a property results in a capital gain (or loss) based on selling price less original cost, property transfer tax, capital improvements (SA), selling expenses, legal etc. All capital gain results in tax (not PR), the 1st $250K is taxed based on 50% of the gain and the rest is taxed based on 66% of the gain (50% and 66% of the gain is added to net income to which then the marginal tax rate is applied.)
The relevant legislation, i.e. Sections 190 and 191 of the Excise Tax Act, goes back at least as far as 2003 and likely to 1985 when the GST was introduced.
So no, it’s not in any way an example of a spending problem. The law firm decided to write about it because of the current relevance to conversion of STR to other uses, given the recent introduction of restrictions on STR.
GST only applies to commercial properties, not residential. A condominium is a residential property. Again, GST is applicable on new builds.
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2024/10/01/september-market-sets-up-for-fall-outperformance/#comment-120479
How does GST Apply if You Change from a Short-Term Rental to a Long-Term Rental?
If you decide to transition a short-term rental unit into a long-term rental, this is considered a taxable supply and requires self-assessment and payment of GST. The GST is based on the property’s fair market value at the time of the change.
For instance, if your property, currently used for short-term rentals, has a fair market value of $500,000 when you switch it to a long-term residential unit, you would need to self-assess and pay GST of $25,000 (5% in B.C.).
In cases where a property is mixed-use for short-term and long-term residential purposes, assessing whether the change in use constitutes a taxable supply is important. Additionally, consideration should be given to the requirement of self-assessment and payment of GST on a portion of the property’s fair market value.
https://www.mondaq.com/canada/sales-taxes-vat-gst/1475428/understanding-the-gst-tax-trap-on-short-term-rentals-in-bc#:~:text=The%20GST%20is%20based%20on,(5%25%20in%20B.C.).
Pretty clear to me. Good luck.
A small fraction of condominiums in Victoria are situated in Hotels that the owner may put into the rental pool or occupy on a long term basis. And then there are fractional ownership condos that are in Hotels that the owner can occupy for specified times. I wonder if this is what CRA is addressing for GST purposes?
The spring market might be affected by the presidential election. If Trump wins, Americans might flee north.
It has been better than the last couple of previous years but not sure about spring market feel.
Sept Sales Numbers
2024 – 571
2023 – 493
2022 – 410
2021 – 761
2020 – 989
I’ve never heard of paying GST on any existing residential property. Rental or owner occupied. With the exception of new builds.
I don’t have any short term rentals so I feel like I came across this later than I might have had I had a personal interest but if you do you might want to read up on change in use rules. If you convert that short term rental to a long term rental, you may need to remit GST on the fair market value of that property even if you don’t sell it.
https://www.svlaw.ca/blog/details/item/gst-consequences-for-short-term-rental-property-explained
Just one more example of Canada having a spending problem. Probably another 5,000 jobs opening up at the CRA to collect this.
Off-topic:
Map of AI data centres across Canada. Vancouver has 25. Victoria has one!
https://www.rec-cer.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/market-snapshots/2024/market-snapshot-energy-demand-from-data-centers-is-steadily-increasing-and-ai-development-is-a-significant-factor.html
Westerly, I suppose that means you think it is a positive for investors to buy a condo needing repairs as the first $250,000 after adjusting for the cost is not taxable?
Whatever, “Are the recent changes in the Capital Gains tax having an adverse effect on those trying to sell condos that have a special assessment where the buyer is responsible for paying the assessment?” The special assessment would be on account of capital, likely, and deductible on the eventual sale. The purchase price should be adjusted for the special assessment and any expected downtime / tenant inconvenience etc.
Specific to SAs, people are more likely to shy away from such a building as compared to buying elsewhere so a seller would have to change their price expectations.
https://cheknews.ca/vancouver-island-real-estate-board-says-it-feels-like-a-spring-market-1217334/
Cool… Still makes the point.. I was generally speaking from memory.. but thanks for doing the background. Cheers
Those numbers don’t jibe at first reading. Quebec at the time had about 1/4 of Canada’s population so 40% in Quebec would have to be about 10% nationally. In fact the BQ received 49.3% of the vote in Quebec and 13.52% of the vote nationally in 1993.
See if Capital gains changes make it. It looks like the government is hiding anything to with confidence now. That ways and means vote has just been procedurally moved with no new date.
The advantage to the plurality system is that it forces governance to the middle, the proportional system tends to give influence to extremes in order to govern. As well, the proportional model forgets about regional representation. In the BC context, it would grant even more representatives to the urban imbalance and outside regions would have MLAs appointed that have no support in that actual region. As for Canada, we would have likely broken up after 1993 election if the 40% plus vote that the Bloc recieved in Quebec was watered down to a national 4-6% limiting the number of seats (that representation is a pressure valve). As well, not to mention the Reform Party would have never been able to overtake the old PCs and the western alienation would have been even greater.
Are the recent changes in the Capital Gains tax having an adverse effect on those trying to sell condos that have a special assessment where the buyer is responsible for paying the assessment?
I suppose it depends if you are planning to use it as a rental or as an end-user. At the moment I don’t see much benefit to buy such a condo as a rental, pay the special assessment and then sell it unless it appreciates more than $250,000 plus the cost of the assessment.
But if anyone has other thoughts, I would like to hear them.
The problem with cartels be it oil or rentals are price wars. Or how to game the market.
As long as the members of the cartel don’t cheat they are effective in keeping prices high.
That seems to be happening with the OPEC countries as some have increased production to obtain a larger market share causing prices to come down with other members such as Saudi Arabia now speaking of a price war if those member don’t cut production.
Texas-based RealPage is accused of acting as an information-sharing middleman for real estate rental giants using price-setting software. The law-suit in the USA alleges they played a role in advising property companies to leave units vacant in order to create an artificial scarcity of rentals. This anti-competitive behavior is made possible because property managers know that their “competitors” are using the same system and will not under cut them. RealPage allows participating Lessors to coordinate supply levels to avoid price competition by staggering leases. Leaving units unoccupied for periods of time to avoid an oversupply.
One company that managed 40,000 units learned it could make more profit by operating at a lower occupancy level that previously would have made management uncomfortable. The company had been seeking occupancy levels of 97% or 98% in markets where it was a leader. But when it began using the software, managers saw that raising rents and leaving some apartments vacant made more money.
In some metropolitan areas such as Nashville and Dallas where RealPage operates both rents and vacancy rates were rising.
There is a threshold % in every country. But it is quite low, and well below 10% (Greens current support).
Courtesy of chatGPT….
Here is the list of countries with their corresponding minimum percentage threshold in alphabetical order:
Austria: 4% of the national vote or winning a direct mandate in a constituency.
Belgium: 5% in many electoral districts (varies slightly by region).
Bulgaria: 4%.
Czech Republic: 5% for individual parties, 10% for two-party coalitions, 15% for coalitions of three or more parties.
Denmark: 2% of the national vote.
Estonia: 5%.
Finland: No formal national threshold, but effective thresholds depend on district magnitude.
Germany: 5% of the national vote.
Greece: 3%.
Hungary: 5% for individual parties, 10% for two-party coalitions, 15% for coalitions of three or more parties.
Iceland: 5% of the national vote or winning a district seat.
Israel: 3.25%.
Latvia: 5%.
Lithuania: 5% for individual parties, 7% for coalitions.
Luxembourg: No formal national threshold, but effective thresholds apply at the district level.
Netherlands: 0.67% (1/150th of the vote).
New Zealand: 5% of the vote or winning one electorate seat.
Norway: 4% for leveling seats, but parties can win district seats without meeting the threshold.
Poland: 5% for individual parties, 8% for coalitions.
Portugal: No formal threshold, but effective thresholds arise from district magnitudes.
Romania: 5% for individual parties, 8% for coalitions.
Russia: 5%.
Slovakia: 5% for individual parties, 7% for coalitions.
South Africa: No formal threshold.
Sweden: 4% of the national vote or 12% in a specific electoral district.
Turkey: 7% of the national vote.
My understanding is in most places they have proportional representation they have a minimum threshold to avoid having very small ‘fringe’ parties get any say. The other thing to consider is the green party may actually get much more than 10% of the vote if people didn’t think they’d be throwing away their vote by voting for them. People strategically vote, instead of voting who they want for, just to have the party they don’t want winning, coming into power.
LMAO, from the same guy who thinks RE prices adjust in real time to news like equities…..
A well priced property will sell quickly with a minimum discount. Price it wrong, and you could be in for a long, costly wait.
If pricing correctly, or “right”, means a faster sale at nearly the full asking price, why do so many sellers take the aspirational route, setting higher-than-market prices? The answer is rooted in human psychology. Sellers fear pricing too close to market value means leaving money on the table. After all, if you don’t ask then you don’t get. The logic sounds airtight until the market pokes holes in it.
The fact is, most buyers are experts on prices. After seeing a handful of properties, they know what they should get for their budget. So, if the price is too high, you’re attracting the wrong set of buyers. Buyers that know instantly that the home doesn’t have what they want. And then your property stagnates with few to no showings. In short, they don’t want it now and they won’t what it later at a lower price. You’re chasing the elusive “perfect buyer,” and in the process, you risk missing the real buyers who are ready to stretch their budget just a bit to get your property.
How do banks forecast interest rate cuts?
https://youtube.com/shorts/DrFh0ibdeio?si=LhPS2C9rbx3x-rfQ
Like this one?
https://www.scribd.com/document/773463481/Oppo-Research
Yup, big advantage. What’s VGRO up by since you started investing in it?
Leo, I’m not sure if you noticed it, but the ability to add quotes (using >) (and other markup like bold) got mostly lost sometime last week. Some people still can quote, but usually it get stripped, perhaps when an edit is made or something.
With proportional representation, there’s nothing to insure that it would be your favoured ”Greens” that hold the balance of power. It could be any tiny fringe group – for example a radical religious party or a “BC separation” party. I don’t mind “hearing their perspective”, but I draw the line at tiny fringe parties being able to control the government and force laws being passed.
I’m thinking this year will be the low on sales and price . Elevator up next spring
Personally I think proportional representation – where the greens have 10% – would bring more balance to discussions around climate and tax measures. It would just ensure that a different perspective is heard. I don’t see how that’s a bad thing.
It’s remarkable how stable home prices have been this year, as shown by Leo’s famous “median price to assessment” chart.
Greens election housing platform – tax the rich -(personal and corporate)
… and for housing – vacancy controls, renoviction restriction, construct 26,000 non-market units/year, more upzoning, work to prevent REITS from buying properties. double property taxes for homes > $ 3million., ban fossil fuel hookups in new buildings, other “climate proofing” measures for homes.
https://bcgreens2024.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/BCGreens-Platform-2024.pdf
Scary to think if 2018 proportional representation referendum had passed, the Greens 10% vote share would likely get them balance of power in the upcoming election.
I’m interested to see how detached performs this month and going forward. At the lower end of the price spectrum; i.e., 1.2mm and lower, it’s felt like a wave of listings lately.
I find the number of cancelled listings (similar to the number of sales) to be extremely high, indicating that the market is not as healthy as it appears. Granted, the same property is probably re-listed a few times in one year. Is there an average of how many times a property is re-listed in one year? Marko should be able to give some examples of the same property being re- listed multiple times.