The cost of parking

This post is 2 years old. The data and my views may have since evolved.

Victoria has been in the news for approving several buildings with minimal parking, with a recent approval of a rental building at Quadra and Fisgard with 4 parking spaces joining a car-free sixplex on Belton currently under construction.  Parking minimums are being abolished in many cities across North America to improve housing affordability, and it’s likely a matter of time before that comes to local municipalities, though for now these are coming in as individual variances during the rezoning process.

But what’s the value of a parking space in our market?  VREB chair Laurie Lidstone noted in the article above that the value of a parking space in the resale market is about $50,000.  Is that accurate?  To answer that question, I looked at 1176 unique condo sales that occurred over the last two years (52 studios, 435 one beds, and 689 two beds) in the City of Victoria to determine the price of parking.  Prices for condos have been pretty stable in that time, which is convenient for analysis.

First, some characteristics about the data set.  No parking for condos is relatively rare, with 84% of condos coming with one or more spots.  The average number of parking spots is 0.88 per unit, but this varies by size of the unit.  The average 2 bedroom unit has 1.02 parking spaces, the average 1 bed has 0.75, and the average studio has only 0.21 (put another way, the average two bed has one spot, while only one in 5 studios comes with parking).  The distribution is shown below.

There’s also a bit of a trend towards less parking in new units.  For example the average 1 bed condo built before 2000 has 0.8 parking spots, vs 0.7 spaces for units built this century.

Looking at values, first we filter out outliers for each set by number of bedrooms (using Q1/Q3 +- 1.5*IQR as cutoffs).  For example for one beds the sale distribution is shown in the chart below, and we keep condos with sale prices between $191k and $757k to remove high end outliers.  We do the same for studios and 2 beds, leaving 1128 units to analyze.

Looking at values, here’s the average values by availability of parking for studios, one, and two bed units.

From the naive averages, the value of a parking space on a studio is around the estimated $50k, but larger condos with parking come with greater premiums, and if you want a two bed condo with two parking spots, that will cost you a cool $200k more than one without parking.  For two bed condos, the marginal cost of the second spot is also seemingly not lower than the cost of the first one.

However these differences are overestimating the value of parking, because condos with parking are also larger on average than those without.  For example, the average 1 bed unit without parking is 548sqft, compared to 654sqft for those with one spot.  Similarly, the average condo with two spots is 1189sqft vs 1026sqft for those with just one.  To focus in on the value of just the parking spot, we can do a regression controlling for size and year built.

Computing that regression, we get a value of $46,540 for each parking spot.

After all the math, we can confirm that the VREB’s estimate of $50k remains pretty accurate today for the value of a spot.  The premium is likely to increase as older buildings often have surface parking (which is much cheaper to build) while newer buildings are more likely to have parking underground which increases costs dramatically.

So are we generally over-parked or under-parked, and is it a good idea to approve buildings with very little parking?

In general, we have a history of requiring more parking than necessary.  Watt Consulting conducted a parking study of 14 rental buildings downtown (p34), and concluded that the average actual usage of parking was 0.65 spaces per unit, versus a parking requirement (in zoning) of well over 1 space per unit (some municipalities require a baseline of 1.5 to 2 spaces per unit).   Most developments these days request very large parking variances, which are often a topic of consternation at public hearings.  However evidence from the growing list of cities that are abolishing parking minimums shows that scrapping parking minimums doesn’t mean no parking.

Without mandated minimums, developers have more flexibility to optimize for the market, opening up opportunities for housing that were previously infeasible due to parking requirements (often the more central and affordable housing), while further out or higher end housing continues to be built with a similar amount of parking.  With new developments likely skewing towards having less parking, it will attract tenants that don’t require it, while residents that do will gravitate more towards buildings with parking, making more efficient use of parking space in the city as a whole.  With the high cost of land, using it more efficiently should improve housing availability and affordability, though it may increase the cost of parking over time.


Also the weekly numbers.

September 2024
Sept
2023
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4
Sales 111 493
New Listings 391 1297
Active Listings 3198 2699
Sales to New Listings 28% 38%
Sales YoY Change -6% +20%
New Lists YoY Change +18% +12%
Inventory YoY Change +26% +17%
Months of Inventory 5.5

Bit of a slow start to the month with sales lagging while more listings hit the market than a year ago, but it’s too early to read much into that.  Despite all the chatter about a hot market in the comments, it’s not showing in the stats yet.  A reminder that these weekly stats are based on reported sales, which are a week or two behind when the offer is actually agreed to by the buyer and seller.  It’s possible that there’s a whole bunch of deals made that just haven’t hit the stats yet, but I’ll believe it when I see it.  The chart below is based on pending date (the date the sale goes unconditional), which is a couple days less delayed.  So far, no great movement there in the market from last year, which was a pretty slow September.

New listings always spike in September and because of that spike we won’t know how the month will go until we get further into it, but for the time being the return of new listings has broken the trend of a strengthening market that was in place all of August.  Given fixed rates are kissing the 4% mark, we should expect more sales activity this fall than last (and I still do), but it’s not here yet.

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QT
QT
September 16, 2024 8:23 pm

OMG! Talk about failure in our medical system.

Doctors are seeing on average 1218-2347 patients a year with 4.73 in person visit per person per year, with 2.73 doctors per 1000 people.
In the meanwhile, South Koreans see their doctors in person 15.65 times per year, and there are 2.51 doctors per 1000 (or on average of 6235 patients a year per doctor).

https://www.statista.com/statistics/236589/number-of-doctor-visits-per-capita-by-country/

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/doctors_per_1000_people/

On a related note.

I just got back last weekend from a 3 month travel in South East Asia.
Unlike our slow and inefficient medical system, country such as Vietnam have both public and private medical services that is quick and efficient.
To which I took full advantage of their private hospitals and clinics to get my type 2 diabetes medication straighten out and final checks. A total of 4 visits on a first come, first served system with a wait time of less than 5 minutes that include seeing the doctor for consultation, blood tests, and result consultation/prescription, and the total time was roughly an hour for each visit. Total cost for each visit was $8.33 CAD ($4.44 for doctor consultations, $3.89 for blood test), and prescription medications cost slightly less than our medications.
My cousin also went for a full medical check up at the largest hospital in Hanoi that include a slew amount of blood tests, and CT scan with doctor consultations for $127.78, and again no appointment was needed.

VicREanalyst
VicREanalyst
September 16, 2024 6:01 pm

No transferable skills or general competencies to go to the private sector and needs to take a big pay cut outside of government. End game is to cash out with a pension. not competent enough to avoid incriminating himself which goes back to the first point. Cry me a river.

LOL I never posted cry me a river! Also, there is a small sub-section of government workers with the skillset and competencies to get a private sector job with similar or more pay but don’t want to given they already have enough money/assets and the work life balance makes it not worthwhile. Most public sector workers are just simply stuck and are lucky to have the job they currently have.

VicREanalyst
VicREanalyst
September 16, 2024 5:55 pm

In pharma and biotech the risk with remote work is less the “risk” of being called back to the office and more the risk that your employer decides that a remote worker in India can do exactly the same work as a remote worker in Victoria for a fraction the price (spoiler alert: often they can’t)

I am talking about BC government workers in particular. Or maybe I’ll put it this way, “insider contacts” have told me this is under serious discussion/consideration and you all can take it whichever way you want 🙂

Patrick
Patrick
September 16, 2024 5:34 pm

Here’s the BC government chart showing number of patients seen per male/female physician. One would assume that since the BC government produced this chart based on gender of physician, that they’re well aware of the differences in number of patients seen by male vs female physician. For example, average male BC Physician works 190 days, average female 164 days.
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/health/practitioner-pro/medical-services-plan/msp_physician_resource_report_20112012_to_20202021.pdf

IMG_3606
caveat emptor
caveat emptor
September 16, 2024 5:31 pm

crazy stats of how much admin in health care has ballooned over the last 50 yrs.

I’m guessing somewhat similar for university and college based on what I have seen while doing occasional sessional lecturer work over the last decade (labour of love – literally the worst paying job I have had since my first university summer job)

Patrick
Patrick
September 16, 2024 5:09 pm

A main cause of the family doctor shortage in BC is that male docs see 60% more patients than females, but most new docs (77%) added are female. And both female and male docs are seeing less patients than before, due to lifestyle changes etc.

Lest you “shoot the messenger”, these are all based off official stats from BC government, not my opinion.
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/health/practitioner-pro/medical-services-plan/msp_physician_resource_report_20112012_to_20202021.pdf

Official stats show that the number of family doctors in BC has increased 1.4% per year over the last 10 years measured (2011-21). That’s about the same as the BC population increase. So far so good. So why is there a shortage?

What has decreased dramatically is the number of patients seen per family doctor in BC. This went down from 1,700 to 1,200 . Perhaps less of a drop if you exclude the Covid year, so a drop from 1,700 to 1,400 pre-Covid. Still a big drop.

In particular, female docs went from seeing 1,817 patients per year to 1,218 over the last ten years (these are including specialists so differ from the family doc numbers slightly) . Male docs fell a little from 2,347 patients.year to 1,952. So a typical male family doc sees 60% more patients per year than a female doc. Of course there are various reasons they might be seeing less patients ( e.g. more complicated patients, different specialist mix ), but working less is the main one. And other lifestyle choices like partial retirement.

77% of the new family docs added over last ten years in BC are women. While that is great, we should expect a shortage of family doctors if we are transitioning to more female docs, since males sees 60% more patients.

Of course this means we need more family doctors. But we should also realize that we need more “full time” family doctors. Women family doctors are seeing 33% less patients than they used to. Males are seeing 60% more than women, but they too are seeing 17% less than they used to.

So to maintain the status quo, since (for whatever reasons) the current family doctor is seeing less patients than previously, we need to increase numbers of family doctors much higher than increases in population.

Thursty
September 16, 2024 5:03 pm

Rodger, good times around the corner . Debt is a non starter as its irrelevant. With lower for longer rates and easy credit , the fix is in

Frank
Frank
September 16, 2024 4:59 pm

Doctors aren’t jealous of hourly types, they’re jealous of fat pension types at age 55. I know doctors, some who are long time friends that are still working into their 70’s. Not the best career decision.

Rodger
Rodger
September 16, 2024 4:54 pm

BoC has been trying a soft landing for GDP growth, but it will fail.

GoC’s turn now to attempt a soft landing for housing prices. It will also fail.

The amount of excess in debt and leverage is just too much in the system. It will take many years or a decade to go back to normal levels of debt and leverage.

Rodger
Rodger
September 16, 2024 4:49 pm

Well, they don’t get the benefits of being an employee such as sick leave, CPP, employment Insurance, parental, health /dental benefits and few other things many of the hourly types take for granted as they sit there waiting for payday and not generate wealth for our society to share in.

Wow, doctor are jealous of hourly types.

Umm.. really?
Umm.. really?
September 16, 2024 4:24 pm

Doubt the specialist with a 8 month waitlist will cry too much. He or she will relocate and then public servants can operate on each other awaiting the “end game.”

Ya, they have replayed deficit financing, tax increases, inflation and unbridled government growth. I guess before we get back to sanity we will be hearing the old 70s/80s term “brain drain” as those that can do, simply leave.

caveat emptor
caveat emptor
September 16, 2024 4:20 pm

LMAO, Amazon just ordered employees back to the office 5 days a week.

Plenty of companies still shedding expensive office space and closing satellite offices. In pharma and biotech the risk with remote work is less the “risk” of being called back to the office and more the risk that your employer decides that a remote worker in India can do exactly the same work as a remote worker in Victoria for a fraction the price (spoiler alert: often they can’t)

Marko Juras
September 16, 2024 4:12 pm

If an ordinary employee doesn’t get splitting, why should someone get it by incorporating? You already get tax advantages from incorporation alone.

I’ll repost what VicREanalyst posted below

No transferable skills or general competencies to go to the private sector and needs to take a big pay cut outside of government.

End game is to cash out with a pension.

not competent enough to avoid incriminating himself which goes back to the first point.

Cry me a river.

Doubt the specialist with a 8 month waitlist will cry too much. He or she will relocate and then public servants can operate on each other awaiting the “end game.”

Umm.. really?
Umm.. really?
September 16, 2024 3:40 pm

If an ordinary employee doesn’t get splitting, why should someone get it by incorporating? You already get tax advantages from incorporation alone.

Well, they don’t get the benefits of being an employee such as sick leave, CPP, employment Insurance, parental, health /dental benefits and few other things many of the hourly types take for granted as they sit there waiting for payday and not generate wealth for our society to share in.

If that is not concerning, I actually know a few family doctors that are seeing fewer patients because there is no point because the money lost from not being able to income split (why earn the money, if it’s just clawed back on taxes). Not to mention trades taking on more cash work to make up the difference and then save on not paying tax at all.

patriotz
patriotz
September 16, 2024 2:35 pm

and anyone else who incorporates and shares with their lower income with family members to lessen the tax burden.

If an ordinary employee doesn’t get splitting, why should someone get it by incorporating? You already get tax advantages from incorporation alone.

Cry me a river.

Marko Juras
September 16, 2024 2:18 pm

I think most people have short-term memory and not many remember what Canada was like pre JT.

I am finding friends here in Victoria that don’t have family or friends abroad just kind of accept things slowly over time as the norm….”yea we went with our infant who had a temperature to emerg waited for four hours no on saw us so we went home.”

Then I’ll chat to my friend in Taiwan and he’ll be like yea had a weird skin thing flare up and went to see a determatologist the same day, had meds 10 minutes later after seeing dermatologist.

Or when I go to Croatia and have a full physical done by four specialists, full bloodwork, spriometry, abdominal ultrasound by a radiologist (not a tech) for a couple of hundred Euros in a span of 2 hrs total and then the internist writes up a full report and emails it to you.

Even my family that can’t afford private everyone has a public system GP in a country 1/3 the gdp per person.

Marko Juras
September 16, 2024 2:09 pm

A local Victoria anesthesiologist posted some crazy stats of how much admin in health care has balloned over the last 50 yrs. More than half of Island Health staff is non-clinical these days. There is literally a department called decision support. Probably a department for inclusitivity in the workplace, super helpful when I am waiting in emerg for 10 hours.

Umm.. really?
Umm.. really?
September 16, 2024 2:04 pm

What has increased more (30% increases) is healthcare and education employment.

How much is that healthcare and education admin? Because we all know those are very efficiently managed work spaces…lol.. I know with my last public sector healthcare referral (2 years and waiting) 2 new levels of oversight and lists have been added separating from the potential of getting specialist care.

Marko Juras
September 16, 2024 1:48 pm

That’s a healthcare funding issue, not an immigration issue.

So enough funding to increase public servants by 43% but not enough for doctors?

VicREanalyst
VicREanalyst
September 16, 2024 1:47 pm

LMAO, Amazon just ordered employees back to the office 5 days a week. Haven’t heard a peep from those so called high paid remote tech workers that were on this forum couple years ago. Are you all still around or have you gone the way of “airbnb4 me” and “up and coming”?

P.S. if you work for the government and think your hybrid work arrangement is permanent and decided to live somewhere deep in the Westshore or some other far away place, I urge you to think about what your life would look like when you have to go back full time….

Umm.. really?
Umm.. really?
September 16, 2024 1:41 pm

What cancelled income splitting?

The war on doctors, dentist, stay at home moms and anyone that has a small business (plumbers, electricians) and anyone else who incorporates and shares with their lower income with family members to lessen the tax burden.

VicREanalyst
VicREanalyst
September 16, 2024 1:35 pm

The housing situation is multi-faceted but isn’t the TLDR that we haven’t be building enough housing for like almost 40 years?

Hmmm I remember when I was renting out my properties in 2013/14 things weren’t that great for landlords. Definitely didn’t have lineups of people trying to rent, if priced even 25 bucks above market it was crickets. I think most people have short-term memory and not many remember what Canada was like pre JT. You can argue that Canada was inevitability headed towards that direction but JT accelerated this by at least 10 years with his policies and he is solely to blame for that.

patriotz
patriotz
September 16, 2024 1:32 pm

Sure will ignore cancelled income splitting, capital gains and everything else.

What cancelled income splitting? Yes capital gains have gone up for a few, but not me. Yes I’m a selfish guy.

VicREanalyst
VicREanalyst
September 16, 2024 1:31 pm

not an immigration issue.

Interesting let me get this straight, there were already constrained supply of housing and doctors before the immigration flood gates opened. When JT opened the gates and things predictably got much worse it isn’t his fault??

Umm.. really?
Umm.. really?
September 16, 2024 1:30 pm

Inflation is a global issue, however; our governments in Canada have added to the problem by bringing in policies that have crashed productivity. When that happens, the standard of living declines with too much money in a system with not enough actual output (unfortunately, oversimplified as printing money). Governments at all levels in Canada have deincentivized working and have enabled people to live comfortably without being productive. To the point we may have lost a generation of productivity that came of age during COVID that expect the nanny state will provide all; while believing those that have things somehow cheated to get those things or had an inside track.

Josh
Josh
September 16, 2024 12:21 pm

Isn’t the lack of housing/doctors a direct result of JT’s immigration policies?

I haven’t been paying close attention enough to say. The housing situation is multi-faceted but isn’t the TLDR that we haven’t be building enough housing for like almost 40 years? And about doctors, the TLDR there is we train enough doctors to solve our problems but they keep leaving for greener pastures. That’s a healthcare funding issue, not an immigration issue.

caveat emptor
caveat emptor
September 16, 2024 10:51 am

cancelled income splitting

When even the Fraser Institute gives lousy reviews to a tax cut.
https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/income-splitting-not-best-economic-bang-buck

Marko Juras
September 16, 2024 10:23 am

Frankly in BC more the fault of the NDP and municipal governments than of JT

Sure will ignore cancelled income splitting, capital gains and everything else.

caveat emptor
caveat emptor
September 16, 2024 10:20 am

In Canada our taxes have gone up

Frankly in BC more the fault of the NDP and municipal governments than of JT

GST – same as before
federal income tax – tweaked in 2015 when Libs got in. Lower in the 56K to 122K bracket. Higher in the >247K bracket

provincial income tax added a new rate for a higher tax brackets like the feds but didn’t match the break in the middle
provincial carbon tax increased (albeit driven by federal requirements)
school tax introduced – provincial
spec tax – provincial
luxury car tax – provincial
boosted PTT – provincial
corporate tax increased -provincial

patriotz
patriotz
September 16, 2024 10:12 am

Not the root cause in either case.

Lack of housing is due to supply restraints. Lack of doctors is due to not training enough of them and making them do too much paperwork. Both under provincial jurisdiction.

Those causes go back well before JT. Granted the additional immigration doesn’t help though.

VicREanalyst
VicREanalyst
September 16, 2024 9:56 am

JT’s fault.

Isn’t the lack of housing/doctors a direct result of JT’s immigration policies?

Marko Juras
September 16, 2024 9:48 am

There’s a lot of “Thanks, Obama” type rhetoric flying around these days. Inflation? JT’s fault. Cookie doesn’t fit in your milk glass? JT’s fault.

Fortunately, despite the number of public servants growing 43% in the last 9 years there still aren’t enough of them to vote him in again.

Comparing Obama to JT is a bit of an insult to Obama, imo.

Yes I realize inflation is a global issue but believe it or not there are countries where the standard of living has improved in the last nine years. In Canada our taxes have gone up and level and quality of services have decreased and people are starting to see it in their day to day lives. In my opinion I don’t think JT political fortunes are purely “JT-fatigue.”

Kristan
Kristan
September 16, 2024 9:48 am

Propping up the demand side of the equation is a choice.

Marko Juras
September 16, 2024 9:31 am

Not a JT fan but it seems a little off blaming him for PTT and legal fees?

Partially yes, he is enabling PTT of up to 28k now, instead of 18k 🙂

Josh
Josh
September 16, 2024 9:21 am

Not a JT fan but it seems a little off blaming him for PTT and legal fees?

There’s a lot of “Thanks, Obama” type rhetoric flying around these days. Inflation? JT’s fault. Cookie doesn’t fit in your milk glass? JT’s fault.

caveat emptor
caveat emptor
September 16, 2024 9:09 am

real help to young buyers, thnx Trudeau

Not a JT fan but it seems a little off blaming him for PTT and legal fees?

Marko Juras
September 16, 2024 8:57 am

Looks like we might hit 550ish-575ish sales for the month, but new listings also up.

Month Sep Sep
Year 2024 2023
Net Unconditional Sales 258 493
New Listings 809 1,297
Active Listings 3,309 2,699

Marko Juras
September 16, 2024 8:48 am

CMHC hasn’t updated their calculator but the CHMC insurance at $1.5 million at the minimum amount down will be well over $50k? possibly close to 60k.

So not only will prices go up but between PTT, CMHC insurance, legal fees, etc., 80k will go to paperwork…..real help to young buyers, thnx Trudeau 🙂

Thursty
September 16, 2024 8:41 am

Good changes , 30 year is not enough though

Marko Juras
September 16, 2024 8:38 am

Not terribly surprised to see this, it may let some FTB with minimal savings into the market, but will result in higher prices.

Crazy how often this comes up in my day to day business. Just gave keys to clients last week that were capped at $1 million based on down payment, not income. Late 20s professional couple. What I find crazy is the number of people (in absolute terms) that can qualify for 900k+ mortgages based on income, at these interest rates.

Will also make my job a little easier as now I won’t have to separate out appliances and other maneuvers (not to worry, all legal) to get homes under the million dollar mark so my clients can qualify.

I can’t see too many scenarios where I have to get creative in terms of brining a 1.52 house down to 1.5.

patriotz
patriotz
September 16, 2024 8:34 am

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland announced two significant changes to federal mortgage policy Monday, raising the price cap for insured mortgages to $1.5-million, up from $1-million, and expanding eligibility for 30-year mortgage amortizations to all first-time homebuyers.
.
The government described the announcement as the most significant mortgage reforms in decades. Both changes are to be in place as of Dec. 15.
.
Raising the insurance threshold to $1.5-million will help first time homebuyers in Vancouver, Toronto and many parts of southern Ontario where the typical home price is more than $1-million.

Not terribly surprised to see this, it may let some FTB with minimal savings into the market, but will result in higher prices.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-federal-mortgage-policy-change-chrystia-freeland/

Marko Juras
September 16, 2024 8:31 am

No transferable skills or general competencies to go to the private sector and needs to take a big pay cut outside of government.

Too many gems to list in this article….

It wasn’t all roses. My pay was significantly less than what I got at my old job, and I had to leave the house early to get to work, which placed the responsibility for getting the kids ready for school on my wife’s shoulders. Worse, I no longer had the flexible schedule I’d enjoyed as a public servant. When my kids were sick, I formerly could draw on sick days, family illness days, vacation days, or simply work from home while I cared for them. No longer.

Losing this flexibility came at a bad time, because after COVID-related public health restrictions were lifted in autumn 2022, my kids brought home a long string of illnesses. My boss was sympathetic, but warned me that it wasn’t sustainable: they needed me to show up for work on a consistent basis. In January 2023, when it became apparent I couldn’t do that, I was let go. Once again, I was unemployed with four kids to support.

^well yea, the boss/owner in the private sector needs to actually generate a profit to stay in business, the government has no such limitation.

I have a very close friend from childhood that is very wealthy and left the private sector as he didn’t want to work long hours/weekends and wanted to spend time with his kids, but then ended up being bored sitting at home and took a government job just to fill his days a bit and he keeps referring to a two class system; those who works for the government and those who don’t 🙂

In my opinion it isn’t sustainable long term. The percentage of public servants is growing faster than the population by a wide margin.

He is always rubbing it in how he makes six figures for his “pocket money” and does nothing 🙂 In his department of 50ish people he thinks only him and another guy actually realize they do nothing for society. The other 48 actually think they are doing something.

The waste is just mind boggling. I wonder how many owner-builder departments that contribute absolutely nothing to society (in fact make life worse via creating non-sense regulations) are in other avenues of government I am not familiar with.

Once again, I am have no issues with the individual government worker – I would take every day off within my rights if I was a public servant. I just don’t think this system is sustainable.

VicREanalyst
VicREanalyst
September 16, 2024 7:30 am

From a former member of the ombudsman office here in YYJ.

No transferable skills or general competencies to go to the private sector and needs to take a big pay cut outside of government.

End game is to cash out with a pension.

not competent enough to avoid incriminating himself which goes back to the first point.

Frank
Frank
September 16, 2024 5:18 am

Kristan- Very good assessment of a public servant’s mind set. Explains why nothing ever gets done.

Kristan
Kristan
September 15, 2024 10:37 pm

https://quillette.com/2024/09/16/i-blew-up-my-lucrative-public-service-career/

From a former member of the ombudsman office here in YYJ.

Marko Juras
September 15, 2024 11:45 am

Careful Marko, you’re making too much sense. Unlike our mindless Prime Minister.

Ahh yes the spoon-fed the budget will balance itself individual who flies private jets to his vacation destinations is going to lecture me on the carbon tax.

Frank
Frank
September 14, 2024 6:19 pm

Careful Marko, you’re making too much sense. Unlike our mindless Prime Minister.

Thursty
September 14, 2024 4:35 pm

Chalk a block at the opens today and they weren’t that good for a million and a half , yikes

patriotz
patriotz
September 14, 2024 4:24 pm

Wrong, it was primarily health education and restrictions on where smoking can occur.

Not denying their importance at all. I was around when it was OK to smoke everywhere and witnessed the onset of restrictions first hand.

But price does matter. Also outlawing “kiddie packs” that young people could afford mattered. I know there was an issue with black market cigs but they were a long way from being dominant in the market everywhere.

Marko Juras
September 14, 2024 3:15 pm

Marko, I know for a fact that you are way smarter than that lazy argument!

No I am completely serious. You think China, India, etc., care about our green ideology? Have you ever visited China? Even Taiwan when I was there last year in Taichung the air quality was a lot worse than what I remember it being 8 years ago, but you think they will shut down their coal power and go green anytime soon?

I am of the opinion the globe will continue to consume resources so why don’t we provide those resources to the market instead of other countries filling the void; therefore, increasing our standard of living and when people have money they can go out and buy things like Tesla Cybertrucks and heatpumps for their homes.

caveat emptor
caveat emptor
September 14, 2024 2:29 pm

So let’s increase the cost of living for Canadians so it can be offset by everyone in China farting?

Marko, I know for a fact that you are way smarter than that lazy argument!

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 14, 2024 12:51 pm

Is Canada a haven for money launderers? A long video but it is a complex subject.

https://youtu.be/_6sqfyxPgFo?si=5rnmD3YIUVPUbJU4

Marko Juras
September 14, 2024 12:10 pm

Wrong, it was primarily health education and restrictions on where smoking can occur.

As someone who spends time in a country where everyone smokes I 100% agree with this. Cost would be a relatively minor factor in my opinion as smoking is cheaper in Canada relative to income.

When Croatian immigrants coming to Canada I find a lot them quit out of frustration on where you can smoke. In Croatian you can smoke in resturants, coffee shops, etc.

Here the way laws have been setup on where smoking can occur if you smoke you are kind of made out to look like an idiot for doing such.

Umm.. really?
Umm.. really?
September 14, 2024 12:01 pm

On the other hand, raising the taxes on tobacco products was a major part of Canada’s highly successful strategy to reduce smoking.

Wrong, it was primarily health education and restrictions on where smoking can occur. The increased cost primarily impacted a market shift towards organized crime and smuggled cigarettes that paid no tax at all. To recapture the loss in revenue by government, there was a reduction in tabacco taxes to encourage those that would otherwise be law abiding to come back and buy legal market cigarettes.

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 14, 2024 11:10 am
Westerly
Westerly
September 14, 2024 9:24 am

I presume you meant harder to find the dealer, Patriots.

“On this day in 1931, Al Capone was found guilty of tax evasion. The gangster who had reportedly boasted, “They can’t collect legal taxes from illegal money” was sentenced to 11 years in prison for failing to file tax returns.” This still happens today.

Westerly
Westerly
September 14, 2024 9:23 am

Patriots “Kind of hard to tax something that’s sold illegally in the first place.” Hard in the sense that it is harder to find the source / dealer, I agree. Sales from illegal activity are taxable both for income tax and GST. CRA has assessed plenty of grow-ops over the years and would assess GST if the sales are over $30k in any given year.

patriotz
patriotz
September 14, 2024 8:08 am

You have the idea that can solve the overdose problem, they just haven’t taxed fentanyl or heroin enough to modify the behaviour.

One of the main reasons why we have a fentanyl crisis is because it’s cheap. Yes price matters. Kind of hard to tax something that’s sold illegally in the first place, though.

On the other hand, raising the taxes on tobacco products was a major part of Canada’s highly successful strategy to reduce smoking.

patriotz
patriotz
September 14, 2024 8:05 am

Introvert, if I wanted that face staring out at me I’d go to the appropriate website. Please spare us the pixels.

Umm.. really?
Umm.. really?
September 13, 2024 10:23 pm

The idea that the type and level of taxation affects people’s (and corporations) behavior is probably one of the most widely agreed on concepts in economics. By both left and right.

That’s probably when you should question it a bit more… Wait, the people vying to be in government agree the justifications to get your money even if they are from the left or right? Congrats! You have the idea that can solve the overdose problem, they just haven’t taxed fentanyl or heroin enough to modify the behaviour.

Marko Juras
September 13, 2024 9:16 pm

Marko, did all the accepted offers u mentioned get conditions removed now?

So far the ones that have come up for condition removal conditions have been removed.

Last night buyer clients got into a bidding war on a newly listed house in the core but lost to an unconditional offer. There is really poor availability of quality homes between 1.1 to 1.5 south of Mckenzie east of Quadra right now.

Also sold an interesting listing this week involving what I thought was a very savvy seller. Went to a listing presentation a couple of months ago. Seller asked what the listing portion of the commission would work out to which was going to be 9k +/- then proceeded to negotiate by offering upfront payment and we settled on 4k upfront payment and 1k upon successful completion. My brokerage was confused…..”Hey Marko, why did someone just etrasfer us $4,200 (4k+gst).”

Which got me thinking 99% of agents would probably take 1/2 or less commission for an upfront payment as it removes the risk from the equation. Problem is the consuner wouldn’t want to take the risk, on average and hence we are where we are with commissions. A huge portion of it is the built in risk of the property not selling, getting fired/replaced by different agent/etc.

Marko Juras
September 13, 2024 9:00 pm

Do I “like” taxes? Not really. But literally every other concept for reducing carbon emissions involves greater government interference and control. Carbon tax is literally the most laissez-faire way to bring about some reduction in carbon emissions.

So let’s increase the cost of living for Canadians so it can be offset by everyone in China farting?

And let’s not extract natural resources because it is bad for the environment so Putin can because other countries have better environmental standards for doing such.

Marko Juras
September 13, 2024 8:49 pm

Speaking of cars, I traded in a 2022 ice car with 24K miles today for the same car but a 2023 in electric and the 2022 car that I paid 28K at height of covid in 2022 I got 25K for trade in value and paid 37.9K for 2023 electric version with only 14K miles which retailed for 52K and only 1.25 years old, electric car prices are falling and all over the map due to recession and less demand for electric.

Electric car prices have fallen because of high interest rates and Tesla dropped prices a ton so they can maintain their growing production capacity. The refreshed Model 3 is $49,900 with up 9k in rebates.

Or Model Y right now at $53,900 with up to 9k in rebates and 1.99% financing. I received 8k when I picked up my Y. Super impressed with the car for less than 1/2 I paid for my Model S nine years ago.

That’s just crushing the competition and the re-sale market.

Introvert
Introvert
September 13, 2024 8:11 pm

It’s a political failure not a policy failure in my view. It is the most economically efficient way to reduce carbon emissions.

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Introvert
Introvert
September 13, 2024 8:07 pm

(he was a navel architect in Croatia)

A plastic surgeon specializing in navels — “Turn that outie into an innie today!”

While they were building them he kept mentioning based on his experiences designing ferries for various countries/companies around the world that the fuel burn rates was going to be insane to maintain that sort of speed….and sure enough it was insane.

Fuel consumption wasn’t the problem; it was the huge swells the FastCats created.

Thursty
September 13, 2024 7:09 pm

Chop away , we should be trying to get rid of tax’s and regulations. Want to help first time home buyers start by not stealing all their money . Market appears to be heating up too must be the lower rates

The Gambler
The Gambler
September 13, 2024 6:37 pm

Congratulations, now watch your CAR depreciate. Fixed that for you Frank.

Also the FastCat ferries are completely relevant in this housing conversation. Same party at the wheel and same sense of we know best. Not surprised at all that their modular fourplexs and single stair buildings are being scrutinized by the very people that they should have consulted with in the first place.

Frank
Frank
September 13, 2024 6:24 pm

Congratulations, now watch your EV depreciate even further.

Bobby K
Bobby K
September 13, 2024 5:41 pm

Speaking of cars, I traded in a 2022 ice car with 24K miles today for the same car but a 2023 in electric and the 2022 car that I paid 28K at height of covid in 2022 I got 25K for trade in value and paid 37.9K for 2023 electric version with only 14K miles which retailed for 52K and only 1.25 years old, electric car prices are falling and all over the map due to recession and less demand for electric.

Bobby K
Bobby K
September 13, 2024 5:28 pm

I listened to a great podcast today from Scott Galloway, he had on a guest talking about longevity and among other things he suggests we raise the price of gas to European levels or higher to encourage people to walk or ride bikes etc.. for the sake of their health. I couldn’t agree more as I was out for a run this morning and Foul Bay from Oak Bay to Cadboro bay was backlogged in both directions and I was easily passing all cars at a moderate 5 min/k pace. I didn’t see one bike, people will only change when they have no choice, I say raise gas prices and car licencing fees to force more people out of car, traffic is becoming a nightmare in Victoria.

caveat emptor
caveat emptor
September 13, 2024 4:15 pm

The great lie is when governments claim taxes do something other than generate revenue.

Really?

The idea that the type and level of taxation affects people’s (and corporations) behavior is probably one of the most widely agreed on concepts in economics. By both left and right.

Do I “like” taxes? Not really. But literally every other concept for reducing carbon emissions involves greater government interference and control. Carbon tax is literally the most laissez-faire way to bring about some reduction in carbon emissions.

Umm.. really?
Umm.. really?
September 13, 2024 3:54 pm

Taxes are usually lazy policy. The great lie is when governments claim taxes do something other than generate revenue. The only worse or lazier policy mechanism is a subsidy, which only has the impact of buying a vote. Examples, luxury tax on autos, the so called school tax on properties and the subsidies that increase cost of things like heat pumps, ebikes, and Teslas. Or those subsides that prop up failing businesses or business models.

caveat emptor
caveat emptor
September 13, 2024 3:24 pm

I am not predicting the end of the human race but it is going to be a lot less comfortable.

Agreed. Also it seems like by refusing to do just a little bit about mitigating carbon emissions now we are opening ourselves to the possibility of much more draconian policies further down the road when the fertilizer is really hitting the fan

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 13, 2024 3:07 pm

Maybe it’s the name Carbon Tax? Everyone hates taxes, so call it something else and people would want more.

https://youtube.com/shorts/yEhjaBm66Uc?si=G3IbySbV1zgk38i3

Yet Another Boomer
Yet Another Boomer
September 13, 2024 2:01 pm

>It’s a political failure not a policy failure in my view.

100% agree. If we were actually serious about getting off carbon based fuels we would raise the tax until we see some actual movement. It has been viewed as just an additional cost to continuing our way of life instead of a clear message that we need to start changing and the sooner the better. I do not have a lot of faith that we will succeed with this challenge. I am not predicting the end of the human race but it is going to be a lot less comfortable.

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 13, 2024 1:58 pm

Supply chain issues too. What does a laptop and a Ford 150 have in common? They use the same microprocessor.

When covid hit vehicle manufactures cancelled order for processors assuming slower car sales while people bought more laptops for home use. When car sales returned there was a two year back log of processors. And that caused used car prices to go up.

For decades business students have been taught to lower costs by reducing inventory and have suppliers deliver just in time when the goods are needed. That makes us more susceptible to supply chain problems if any supplier along that supply chain has a bottleneck from a natural disaster, wars, or political reasons.

patriotz
patriotz
September 13, 2024 1:54 pm

One of the biggest policy failures I’ve witnessed.

It’s a political failure not a policy failure in my view. It is the most economically efficient way to reduce carbon emissions. But smart doesn’t seem to sell politically.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2014/10/12/what-would-milton-friedman-do-about-climate-change-tax-carbon/

patriotz
patriotz
September 13, 2024 1:42 pm

For example, rate was 0.5% for 2016-17.

The world has changed a lot since then. It’s an open question whether we can go back to rates that low and meet inflation targets. Trade war with China, shooting war with Russia, climate change all constitute inflationary pressures.

Bluesman
Bluesman
September 13, 2024 12:30 pm

I’m with you Dad. Extremely unlikely we’ll see 1pct overnight right.

SuccessfulHomebuyer
SuccessfulHomebuyer
September 13, 2024 12:14 pm

True – the carbon tax was only going to drive up the cost of anything using fossil fuels, which is virtually everything.

Dad
Dad
September 13, 2024 12:07 pm

In other news, interesting to see that the carbon tax as we know it is likely dead, no matter who wins the election. One of the biggest policy failures I’ve witnessed.

Dad
Dad
September 13, 2024 12:05 pm

If inflation falls to average of 2% and stays below 3%, I’d expect the end point of this rate cut cycle to be 1.0% or lower.

I think the latest “guess” is that the neutral rate is a bit higher than it was before the pandemic. I wouldn’t count on a return to pre-pandemic rates, but I also wouldn’t count it out. Anything can happen…especially considering how wrong everyone has been about everything over the last 3 years…pundits shrieking about how we needed double digit unemployment and rates to go to above 8% to get inflation back under control. That proved to be woefully incorrect.

Patrick
Patrick
September 13, 2024 11:40 am

I think we could chop rates by 2 points

Agreed.

If the BoC rate (currently 4.25%) falls by 2%, it is 2.25%, still 0.5% above where it was in 2019 pre-Covid (1.75%). But the rate averaged much less than that for the preceding ten years, spending about 5 years with rates at/below 1.0%. For example, rate was 0.5% for 2016-17.

If inflation falls to average of 2% and stays below 3%, I’d expect the end point of this rate cut cycle to be 1.0% or lower.

BOC rate history ….

IMG_3598
VicREanalyst
VicREanalyst
September 13, 2024 7:57 am

Marko, did all the accepted offers u mentioned get conditions removed now?

Thursty
September 12, 2024 7:32 pm

I think we could chop rates by 2 points and have no negative effect on the dollar or house prices

Thursty
September 12, 2024 7:32 pm

Bluesman, ya gotta get those rates down and the economy fired up . Unfortunately no relief coming for house prices , I would be happy to see real estate go up 4 points annually so I can make a lil money

Mt. Tolmie Foothills
Mt. Tolmie Foothills
September 12, 2024 6:14 pm

We’ll get a monorail from Langford before we get a nuclear plant.

We may get a monorail sooner than I expected: https://www.crd.bc.ca/project/regional-transportation

Bluesman
Bluesman
September 12, 2024 5:57 pm

So CIBC is expecting 50bps cuts in each of the December and January meetings. If that comes to fruition that ought to make you happy, Thursty!

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 12, 2024 5:44 pm

Agreed, it would be a battle that you aren’t likely to win. Just find another property.

Westerly
Westerly
September 12, 2024 4:37 pm

Agreed, my point was even if the strata
allowed it you cannot build a strata duplex (or four plex or any other plex) on a strata lot.

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 12, 2024 3:57 pm

Westerly, if you want to build a four-plex rental or convert an existing house it will depend on what restrictions or covenants are in that specific property’s bylaws. When someone buys a vacant or improved property bare land strata they sign the bylaws to agree to the restrictions and covenants.

To the best of my knowledge covenants take precedence over the missing middle initiative. The BC government has yet to address this issue.

As for amending a strata it requires a unanimous resolution.

https://www.bclaws.gov.bc.ca/civix/document/id/93consol17/93consol17/79061#section57.

Westerly
Westerly
September 12, 2024 3:01 pm

Whatever, “Bare Land Strata Lots and missing middle housing.” Just to add to this, I understand that you cannot “strata a strata.” I haven’t researched the origin / reason of/for this rule but even if a MMH is allowed on a strata lot it will be single PID. Harder still to build, financially.

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 12, 2024 12:37 pm

While wood is only a fraction of the cost to build a home at around $33,000 for a typical home, when the labor costs are added it becomes the most expensive item in house construction.

The cost of Interior features such as appliances, countertops, cabinets, flooring, drywall, doors, trim , lighting, fireplaces, finishes, fixtures and other features are the most expensive parts but are not as labor intensive as framing a home. If you want high end interior features the cost may quadruple your budget over standard features.

Exterior features such as a roof, exterior siding, landscaping, irrigation, etc. can vary significantly depending on the materials used.

While lumber prices have come down since Covid they only marginally effect the cost of building a house.

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 12, 2024 12:36 pm

Demand for lumber and a reduction in housing starts are related.

Forest sector analyst Russ Taylor, whose consulting firm is part of the Global Consulting Alliance, noted that lumber prices have recently fallen below US$400 per thousand board feet — the break-even point for many producers in B.C., as well as the U.S.

Lumber demand has not come back yet in 2024 the way he expected, Taylor said. High interest rates have a lot to do with the muted demand for lumber, since high interest rates suppress new housing construction.

He expects more North American sawmill curtailments this year. “That will put supply and demand back into balance,” he said.

VicREanalyst
VicREanalyst
September 12, 2024 12:21 pm

strong sale 4117 mercer pl. for 1.65, listed at 1.635 and assessed at 1.419

Frank
Frank
September 12, 2024 11:22 am

That pretty much describes most of Detroit, abandoned buildings and scrapyards.

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 12, 2024 10:52 am

Detroit is planning to move to a Land Value Tax in 2025

Detroit’s Land Value Tax Plan is a way for Detroit voters to decide whether to cut homeowners’ taxes by an average of 17% and pay for it by increasing taxes on abandoned buildings, parking lots, scrapyards, and other similar properties.

The Michigan Legislature would have to approve legislation no later than Summer 2024 to be placed on the November 2024 ballot. Homeowners would see the full tax cut in 2025.

The plan is to reduce the tax rate on improvements while doubling the tax rate on land.

VicREanalyst
VicREanalyst
September 12, 2024 10:35 am

I do think Vancouver and Toronto have an effect on our 2.5 + part of the market . But I’m sure T.O and Van will be roaring back soon enough , lots of deep pockets in those town

China has a profound impact on the TO and Van markets.

Thursty
September 12, 2024 10:25 am

I do think Vancouver and Toronto have an effect on our 2.5 + part of the market . But I’m sure T.O and Van will be roaring back soon enough , lots of deep pockets in those towns

Joe
Joe
September 12, 2024 10:16 am

I can’t comment on all the factors, but there is definitely something to small investor units factor. Clearly visible in certain dead-on-arrival completions of buildings like the Pearl on Store Street.

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 12, 2024 10:08 am

Is the soft market for housing in Toronto affecting our upper middle income and luxury market?

And is the condominium market faltering due to small, unlivable, overpriced commodified units that were built for speculators who had no intention of living in them, that at one time offered an almost guaranteed profit?

And are REITs and Private Equity investors a significant cause of high rents?

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 12, 2024 9:57 am

Bare Land Strata Lots and missing middle housing.

Southern Victoria and the Fraser Valley have considerable single family houses built on bare land strata lots that have common property roads and for some neighborhoods a common property septic system. There are more than 26,000 such developments and 46,000 bare land strata lots in these areas.

Most often the owners within the strata pay a fee for the maintenance of the common property. Most will also have restrictions on what can be built on the site.

A stumbling block for some to build multi-family dwellings.

Introvert
Introvert
September 12, 2024 7:23 am
Max
Max
September 11, 2024 11:22 pm

I agree. The interesting thing with parking is you don’t pay strata fees on it so guess what the person without a parking spot is paying the same amount as the owner with a parking spot for annual parkade cleaning, mechanical ventilation, parkade leak repairs, etc.

Also, to date BC Assessments has not been adjusting for parking spot or no parking spot; therefore, you don’t pay extra tax on the parking spot either but you can derive extra utility or income if renting from the spot.

Etc., essentially beyond the un-front costs you don’t have additional long term costs with parking.

p2
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 11, 2024 2:44 pm

Agents have been very busy re-listing condominiums for the fall market, in most cases, at or slightly below their previous asking prices in August. Re-setting the days-on-market indicator to zero and sending a flurry of “new” listings to people’s inboxes looking to buy a home just as the kids are back in school.

https://youtu.be/1nEEYT_M5xw?si=hmcc3PHOhb5mwvvM

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 11, 2024 1:36 pm

Understanding the difference between a bid and an estimate from a contractor. Why it may be difficult to get a break down from a contractor.

https://youtu.be/Vr5G1wBaBMg?si=b1hya4xiJRl1UluI

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 11, 2024 1:25 pm

Regulatory Obligations for Owner Builders in British Columbia

https://youtu.be/IC-xeRuDr0I?si=0QLPkvjjxQKJgQat

Knowing that the recourse in buying a owner built home means you’ll have to sue the builder rather than make a claim ugainst a home warranty program would you be more or less favorable in buying the property from an owner builder?

Frank
Frank
September 11, 2024 1:17 pm

I’ve seen on BNN that the forestry industry is closing several of their mills. Don’t we need lumber to build all these homes the government wants to create? I guess demand is way down.

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 11, 2024 11:38 am

A friend of mine sold his property several months back to a Vancouver developer for a good price. My friend said that the developer already owns the adjoining site and wants to build multi-family on the combined two sites.

He built his home back in the early 1990’s and had to excavate eight feet, build foundation walls and then backfill the eight feet with sand because of the soft soil conditions to support a 40 ton house. One of the first questions I asked my friend is if the developer had a soil test performed to determine if the soil characteristics would support a building that will be three, four or more times heavier. Nope.

That developer is going to have to excavate half way to China to build on that site or drive piles for who knows how deep. It’s not going to happen those costs would make the development economically unfeasible.

To build multi-family in Victoria is not as simple as in other cities. Anyone that lives in the Fairfield flat area near the Dallas road waterfront want to disagree?

https://www.caee.ca/9CCEEpdf/School%20retrofit%20papers/Victoria_Hazard_Mapping_600dpi.pdf

Patrick
Patrick
September 11, 2024 11:12 am

Government should sponsor a contest for lowest cost, maximum size 4-plex on a 6000 sqft lot (50’x120’).

Specs would be :
—- must build to maximum size allowed, pick a certain municipality rules as a standard.
—- Don’t worry about aesthetics or energy use – as long as it passes code.
—— Choose 10 finalists and have them costed (and appraised for estimated sale price) by a third party, including all costs, land etc and pick the winner.
—- The winner wouldn’t be purely low cost, it would also need to be a home that gets appraised at a higher price than the building costs, and would be considered acceptable living standards for a typical household. The winners would be homes with either the highest estimated profit percent (% sale value above cost) or the lowest cost.

If that winner would still be too expensive and not “pencil”, then we have a problem, as likely no middle homes will get built.
But if it would pencil, then we should stop whining and start building homes like that.

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 11, 2024 11:00 am

It would be impossible to produce such a brochure as every municipality and site will have different requirements. Places like Vancouver are simpler as most lots are standard and don’t vary much in topography or soil conditions. The majority of Vancouver lots are highly similar in frontage, depth and overall size as well as being level and fully serviced at the street line.

Victoria has a hodge podge of sites some on rock, others on soft clay or sandy soils. That alone will increase the costs of site preparation which isn’t included in those guideline cost estimates.

One has to consider the costs shown to be a guideline and were outdated as soon as soon as the brochure was published.

Marko Juras
September 11, 2024 10:55 am

What on earth does that have to do with housing?

I remember when we came to Canada my father noting a number of times that the the Fastcat ferries were going to be a disaster (he was a navel architect in Croatia). While they were building them he kept mentioning based on his experiences designing ferries for various countries/companies around the world that the fuel burn rates was going to be insane to maintain that sort of speed….and sure enough it was insane.

Point is government doesn’t actually go out and consult actual professionals/people doing the work when they are creating policy. The owner builder exam was brought in by a woman at BC Housing who has a degree in political science and has likely never stepped foot on a construction site. She leaves BC Housing and goes to Ontario, does anyone bother to see if the policy makes any sense? Nope, why would they entire department employed doing nothing but putting BC Residents trying to build a home into hardship and adding extra costs and delays.

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 11, 2024 10:44 am

I can understand the Province trying to re-vamp the success of post war housing and the Vancouver Special. It could work, but the first to adopt this imitative for standardized housing are likely to face an uphill battle. As more people adopt these initiatives a lot of uncertainty is removed for contractors and subcontractors in pricing their jobs and the cost to build should come down. The contractor, plumber, electrician etc. know exactly what their costs on the last identical home had been so that don’t need to price in such a large contingency for cost over runs when bidding on a job.

But that doesn’t mean the price of the home will come down. That price is set by the marketplace. It just means more will be built as a lot of the uncertainty is removed ,thereby increasing the number of homes built on speculation of a future sale.

Personally, I am not as negative as some on this blog about building missing middle. But I understand that it will take time for market adoption resulting in a wider acceptance of contractors building on speculation of a future sale to enter the missing middle market.

totoro
totoro
September 11, 2024 10:21 am

her conclusion, loves the designs as an architect but unlikely any of the designs to be built in reality

We looked at the numbers when the zoning was relaxed and quickly realized that there was no way it was a good use of equity to redevelop our lot this way. Standardized designs help bring down costs, but not enough.

If government wants to encourage homeowners to engage in new build densification they need to be strategic. For example, parents who own the land already are going to support the build for an adult child who is priced out. Maybe someone who has a crappy small house on a large lot builds a 4-plex and takes one unit to live in? Even if this appealed I wouldn’t do this unless I had a lot of experience and could be my own general contractor.

The cost estimates in the brochure don’t even include soft costs or the cost to demolish an existing structure. If government wants to encourage developers to take on the risk of building the “standard designs” need to meet the profit margins required to get bank financing. Not sure what that is as I’m not a developer but online sources peg it at 25-35%.

Makes me wonder why government would pay 300k for a brochure of plans without including the specific requirement that the design be economically feasible for a developer using different sized benchmark communities to estimate this?

patriotz
patriotz
September 11, 2024 10:11 am

Brings back thoughts when government officials we making design decisions on those great things called the FastCat ferries way back when…. That turned out well, didn’t it?

What on earth does that have to do with housing? You want a real comparison, look at the standardized post-war house which provided a great many veterans with livable housing and is still common across Canada.

Or fast forward to those standardized designs in Kelowna which are already a success, as Leo has pointed out.

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 11, 2024 9:55 am

Baring municipality fees, the only way to bring down the price of housing is to reduce the cost of materials and labor. For someone building their own home or a contractor that builds one or two small projects a year that isn’t possible. They don’t have the economy of scale to bring down their costs of material and labor. Building a one-of-a-kind missing middle home is the most expensive way to build housing.

Associate
Associate
September 11, 2024 9:01 am

Who would buy a two-bedroom without parking?

These people did.

2203 – 777 Herald for $730,000
1-532 Fisgard for $750,000
906 930 Yates for $425,000
406 1015 Johnson at $440,000

Whatever… I think this is pretty strange, your saying a 22nd floor unit 2 bed at Hudson One doesn’t have parking?

Dee
Dee
September 11, 2024 8:51 am

@Marko Xeniya is my neighbour. She’s very awesome. I invited her over for a glass of wine this past Saturday but she said that she couldn’t because they were having company. Then, the next day I was hosting someone who said – i was just here yesterday to visit someone. It turns out it was Xeniya! I’ve been in Victoria pretty consistently for about 7 years – the longest I’ve lived anywhere for over 20 years. And now it is finally starting to feel small. Which is not a bad thing.

Umm.. really?
Umm.. really?
September 11, 2024 8:25 am

In my opinion just more BS the government is putting out to buy votes. Great theoretical ideas that won’t actually help as they aren’t planted in reality.

Brings back thoughts when government officials we making design decisions on those great things called the FastCat ferries way back when…. That turned out well, didn’t it?

Introvert
Introvert
September 11, 2024 7:22 am
Marko Juras
September 11, 2024 6:28 am

Local Victoria architect and builder/developer reviews the new NPD Standardized Housing Designs….her conclusion, loves the designs as an architect but unlikely any of the designed to be built in reality in any sort of significant numbers (based on her experience as a current builder/developer) -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDrogbCtNtw

Echos my personal thoughts. In my opinion just more BS the government is putting out to buy votes. Great theoretical ideas that won’t actually help as they aren’t planted in reality. Where the help is most urgently needed like cutting down bureaucracy things will only get worse on that front long term.

Thursty
September 10, 2024 10:06 pm

True that, I think we are already creating class renters . All I can say is buy now and buy often

Patrick
Patrick
September 10, 2024 8:42 pm

If the trend to much less parking in new buildings becomes normal, I expect that these units with no parking will create a “two-tier” system, where renters will be the ones ending up with no parking, and owner occupiers will make sure they own units with parking. If that is correct, it will just increase the advantages of homeownership over renting. And worsen the housing crisis as renters-without-parking realize they need to buy a home to secure the features they need.

It would be interesting if there are statistics measuring how many of the “no parking” units are rented vs owner occupied. If the no-parking rented units have a higher tenant turnover, they will be popular with landlords, as frequent tenant turnover frees them from rent controls, allowing them to increase rents to market.

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 10, 2024 3:49 pm

Here is a list of some unrestricted monthly parking from Jawl Properties
https://jawlproperties.com/parking

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 10, 2024 3:35 pm
Frank
Frank
September 10, 2024 3:08 pm

They can all buy e-bikes and charge them in their condos. Until one explodes.

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 10, 2024 2:59 pm

Who would buy a two-bedroom without parking?

These people did.

2203 – 777 Herald for $730,000
1-532 Fisgard for $750,000
906 930 Yates for $425,000
406 1015 Johnson at $440,000

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 10, 2024 2:24 pm

Ohh, I think people are well aware that parking is site specific. That’s why they pay more for the ERA than Regent’s park. $50 a month for Regents Park is cheap relative to rates for inferior surface parking lots where your car can be dinged up and more likely to be vandalized over night. But then all real estate is site specific.

location, location, location

patriotz
patriotz
September 10, 2024 1:31 pm

Commercial use of parking and storage areas can be designated as a separate strata lot, in which case, they will have their own strata lot number. This is not allowed in residential strata plans.
.
If parking and storage areas are intended to be used in conjunction with a residential strata lot they must be included as part of the strata lot and so share the same strata lot number as the residential unit.

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/housing-tenancy/strata-housing/renting-buying-selling/buying-and-selling-strata/parking-and-storage

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 10, 2024 1:22 pm

The parking stalls would have to have a separate transferable title. It’s not a bad idea. Instead of paying a monthly lease you would by buying a prepaid lease. The strata council would likely want a strata fee for repairs, fobs, and maintenance of the underground parking. Of course it then becomes something else to tax.

I don’t think we are quite ready for this yet in Victoria. There might also be a problem with the Condominium Act but that’s for the lawyers to figure out. It would suck if the complex had a special assessment levied if you owned a parking stall in the building.

But you never know who will be buying the parking stall beside you

https://youtu.be/2lLpUaU1XM0

Marko Juras
September 10, 2024 1:06 pm

Or maybe people like the convenience of taking the elevator down to your car instead of walking to a separate parkade/parking lot.

A double garage in an undergroud parkade of a luxury building sold in Zagreb for 150,000 euros and it made the news as an outrageous sum. Some pretty good comments on FB “what’s the big deal just the G-Wagon in the garage is worth more than 150k”

One thing I do like a tad better in Croatia is you get a separate title with your parking spot or parkade garage in new buildings so you can sell/buy those separately from the condo. Weird thing is you don’t have to own a condo in a building to buy a garage/parking spot in building.

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 10, 2024 1:01 pm

We have a whole new generation that don’t have cars or even a driver’s license. Living and working downtown all one needs is a car service for the occasional long distance drives.

https://youtube.com/shorts/l86Tiz37YnY?si=2HpWqP6FNEjXyjdd

Marko Juras
September 10, 2024 1:01 pm

Apart from convenience or necessity, resale value alone makes it make sense imo.

Especially with a two bedroom unit. Who on earth is going to buy a nice two bed unit without parking.

What people don’t understand about parking is it is extremely site specific in terms of market value on re-sale and also rental value.

I have a client renting a parking spot for $300 at the Era and literally down the street a different client is renting a spot at Regents Park for $50.

Almost every building has a bylaw that the parking spot has to be rented to a resident only; therefore, parking in strata corps is not an open fluid market. If there is a shortage of parking in that building the price goes through the roof.

My building has around 170 parking spots for 134 units and every other day people are posting in our FB group offering parking spots to rent.

Trying finding a spot in a building with 50 parking spots and 100 units.

Totoro
Totoro
September 10, 2024 12:45 pm

I would def pay 60k more for a condo parking spot.

Apart from convenience or necessity, resale value alone makes it make sense imo.

A unit with no parking stall is also going to be harder to rent or sell.

We have been a cat culture. Be interesting to see how large buildings with no parking impact neighbourhoods.

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 10, 2024 12:15 pm

The median price for a downtown condo is $535,000. And the average rent for a downtown condo is $2,300 per month or $27,600 per year which is Gross rent multiplier of 19.38. A rent for a parking stall in the Mosaic is $275 per month or $3,300 per year

$3,300 per year at a GRM of 19.38 is $64,000. The Mod building is asking $60,000 for a parking stall.

The math isn’t difficult. Well maybe for some it is.

VicREanalyst
VicREanalyst
September 10, 2024 11:59 am

There are developers like Jawl that rent out some of the parking spaces in their commercial buildings.

Another case of lack of knowledge. Some spots turn into pay for parking for the public after business hours.

But you must have one hell of a car if you’re willing to pay another $100k to $150K just to park it.

Or maybe people like the convenience of taking the elevator down to your car instead of walking to a separate parkade/parking lot.

VicREanalyst
VicREanalyst
September 10, 2024 11:58 am

Under $1,000,0000, SFH/Freehold in the core up to 60 listings (the most I’ve seen in this category in a while).

POS tenanted properties?

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 10, 2024 11:39 am

There are opinions and then there are supported opinions backed with analysis and evidence.

If there is a shortage of available parking stalls then the rental rate for secured underground parking will be higher than if there is an abundant amount of parking.

There are developers like Jawl that rent out some of the parking spaces in their commercial buildings. Sometimes you may find them on Craigslist as those with a parking stall but no vehicle chose to rent them. I just found one in the Mosaic at $275 per month and another along the Gorge at $80 per month. Paying $100,000 or $150,000 for a parking stall would just be ridiculous as you are not likely to recover that on resale. That doesn’t mean you can’t pay that. That’s up to you. it just means the market doesn’t support that amount. But you must have one hell of a car if you’re willing to pay another $100k to $150K just to park it.

Marko Juras
September 10, 2024 11:21 am

Under $1,000,0000, SFH/Freehold in the core up to 60 listings (the most I’ve seen in this category in a while).

Marko Juras
September 10, 2024 11:13 am

Email from Airbnb this morning….hopefully this takes out a bit more competition 🙂

“Hosting platforms like Airbnb are required to report tax info from hosts if they’re based in or have a listing in Canada.

The details you provide will be used to comply with tax reporting regulations.

Please provide your Social Insurance Number (SIN), Business Number (BN), or First Nations Identity Number as soon as you can. Learn More

How to submit your tax info
Go to Account > Taxes
Select “Add tax info” from the Taxes page
If asked, select “United Kingdom (UK), New Zealand, or Canada”
Follow the instructions to update your info
After you’re done, your tax info will show up under Account > Taxes.
Get started
Have you provided tax info for GST purposes?
You may have already provided a Goods and Services Tax (GST), Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) or Québec sales tax (QST) number. If so, we’ll still need you to add your Social Insurance Number (SIN), Business Number (BN), or First Nations Identity Number to help make sure your tax info is accurate.

You can do this in the tax info section of the Taxes page.

How do you add a Property Identifier (PIN) or Parcel Identifier Number (PID) for your listings?
You can usually find this info at your local land registration office”

Marko Juras
September 10, 2024 11:03 am

It’s possible that there’s a whole bunch of deals made that just haven’t hit the stats yet, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

Lots of offers with conditions to be lifted this week….will see how many is “lots.” 🙂

Marko Juras
September 10, 2024 11:02 am

Computing that regression, we get a value of $46,540 for each parking spot.

I had client purchase a second parking spot in a pre-sale in Langford recently for $10,000. Downtown right now at the Mod building they are asking $60k per spot and that can literally be the spread in value depending on location and unit to parking ratio. If a building has 100 units and 10 parking spots they are probably going for $100,000. If a building has 100 two bedroom units and 10 parking spots they would probably fetch $150,000 +/-. If a building has more parking spots than units than obviously the value is lot lower. Colwood has ridiculous parking ratios and condo developers often have unsold parking spots they are giving away at the end for 10k +/- (aka taking a huge loss).

Not to be confused with the cost to build a parking spots. Underground that is north of $60k for sure right now.

Marko Juras
September 10, 2024 10:57 am

$50,000 per spot seems pretty inexpensive and worth it to a buyer.

I agree. The interesting thing with parking is you don’t pay strata fees on it so guess what the person without a parking spot is paying the same amount as the owner with a parking spot for annual parkade cleaning, mechanical ventilation, parkade leak repairs, etc.

Also, to date BC Assessments has not been adjusting for parking spot or no parking spot; therefore, you don’t pay extra tax on the parking spot either but you can derive extra utility or income if renting from the spot.

Etc., essentially beyond the un-front costs you don’t have additional long term costs with parking.

Marko Juras
September 10, 2024 10:52 am

Full self-driving (FSD) should help reduce the need for parking spaces… if not owned vehicles. There will come a day!

In 20 to 25 years. In some ways the AP1 I had on my Tesla Model S 9 years ago is more reliable FSD on my Model Y today….I think there is a long way to go.

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 10, 2024 10:42 am

Most parking stalls are limited common property. Maintained by the strata corporation but for the exclusive use of the strata owner. In the older condominiums they are designation common property so there is no ownership rights attached to the strata owner for the parking stall.

$50,000 a stall seems reasonable as it would make up around $250 a month of a mortgage payment which is in line with what one would rent a parking stall per month. Essentially one is paying a prepaid lease for the parking stall that is transferable to a new owner.

In contrast if you live in a condo outside of the downtown core in a neighborhood where there is abundant free surface or street parking available you should be paying less than $50,000 for a parking stall.

A problem happens when the developer changes the assigned parking stall at completion. Some stalls are positioned in such a way that the owner will find it a challenge or not possible to park there big ass truck in the reassigned space, a change that they did not agree to, and they will want to be compensated by the developer. That’s when their lawyer will need to find someone to provide, a written report that might end up in court, with an evidence supported opinion of the market value of the parking stall.

Introvert
Introvert
September 10, 2024 9:21 am

I wouldn’t opt for FSD even if they paid me; I love driving.

Those flying cars look like mini helicopters. The chance of dying in one of those will be orders of magnitude greater than in a vehicle on the road — so no thanks!

Frank
Frank
September 10, 2024 8:44 am

The insurance premiums will sink self driving vehicles.

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 10, 2024 7:52 am

Frank, I watched a video on AI for self driving cars. The AI programs/machine learning can get almost there but the last few percentages elude them. In the example the person gave, the AI program can not distinguish the difference between a soft target and a hard target like an open umbrella or a child crossing the street. Those last few percentages might not be solved for another decade or two.

Totoro
Totoro
September 10, 2024 7:41 am

$50,000 per spot seems pretty inexpensive and worth it to a buyer. I guess the math is not so simple though. If you can build big with almost no parking there is probably more cost savings than that and I bet some sites just can’t have underground parking.

Whateveriwanttocallmyself
Whateveriwanttocallmyself
September 10, 2024 7:21 am

Very interesting way to estimate the value of a parking stall.

The alternative is to lease a parking stall and capitalize the annual lease. Or on a cost basis obtain the information from the developer to build underground parking. On a market basis it would be necessary to subtract out the value of the strata lot first. However that isn’t possible as vacant strata lots do not sell in the market place. But one could estimate a value of the strata lot using a residual land technique.

These are similar methods when estimating the contributory value on an accessory dwelling unit.

Then there is the old paired sales comparison method using a lot of trial and error adjustments. The Lum Library in the states likely has several papers on valuing parking stalls. I just email the AIC and they research the relevant articles/papers/court cases and send them to me. Real Estate economics and valuations are likely the most researched topic of any of the social sciences. Someone at the Sauder School of Business at UBC has likely done all of the grunt work already.

I prefer the income method.

Frank
Frank
September 10, 2024 4:05 am

60 years ago we were all going to be piloting flying cars in the future (now). That didn’t happen, neither will full self driving vehicles. Apple gave up on the idea after spending billions.

John Goranson
John Goranson
September 9, 2024 11:43 pm

Full self-driving (FSD) should help reduce the need for parking spaces… if not owned vehicles. There will come a day!