August: market digests lower rates, but no great change yet
August ended with 545 sales and 1043 new listings. Year over year that’s the same number of sales and slightly (4%) fewer new listings. Adjusting for the fact there was one fewer business day this August, that’s about a 5% increase in the sales rate and an unchanged rate of new listings. Either way, on the surface it appears that little has changed in the market since last year other than 29% more inventory sitting around.
But that’s not entirely true but it requires looking at higher resolution data, and at the properties that people actually care about: residential resales in the core. There, it’s pretty clear that the market this year – while overall in a similar state as last August – is slowly warming up while last year it was going the opposite direction.
No surprise, prices are flat, incomes are up a bit, and rates are down a bit, meaning affordability has improved and that allows some sidelined buyers to get back in the action. However it should be pointed out that these are minor improvements, and we are still a long ways away from historical norms for affordability. While single family properties are expected to become gradually less affordable over the long run, I don’t see any reason for the same to happen to condos. And if that’s the case, we need more rate drops, income gains, or price decreases to bring affordability back to the multifamily market.
Single family sales dropped a little from last August while condo sales increased, but this is mostly just the normal month to month noise. Zooming out and seasonally adjusting, we can see that still not a whole lot has changed in about two years.
New lists are continuing to drop back, now back to levels that are no longer remarkable compared to historical ranges.
Inventory has been dropping since June which is normal for late summer, but it’s been dropping somewhat faster than average, which means seasonally adjusted inventory has declined slightly as well. These aren’t big moves, and we’ve seen temporary reversals of the upward trend twice before in the last two years, but we’re going to need to see a lot more increases if we are to return to what we had a dozen years ago during the last true buyers market. Note that while inventory will continue to decrease until January, the seasonally adjusted figures will tell us what’s happening with the underlying trend.
We are at the cusp of the fall selling season, when there’s generally an increase in new listings and sales activity. And though it pulled back a bit in August, we’re still seeing elevated rates of properties being pulled off the market as sellers remain frustrated by a low number of buyers and prices that remain lower than our market peak two years ago. Will the slightly increased interest from buyers (and tomorrow’s rate cut) entice those sellers back on the market? Those lapsed listings represent a good chunk of hidden inventory, though I expect that the large majority of those sellers are just locals looking to move up or down in the market. In other words if they successfully sell at some point they will buy another property in Victoria and not change the market balance on a net basis.
Months of inventory has been quite stable all year, while the sales to list ratio has improved somewhat. Months of inventory is still somewhat in favour of sellers while sales to list is now indicating a balanced market overall, up from one clearly in favor of buyers last fall.
Prices have reflected those roughly balanced conditions, with little change beyond noise this year.
A small increase in the median sales to assessed value ratio for detached and condos which were both up 1%, while townhouses spiked to 5% over assessment last month. Due to low sales numbers I would chalk that up to noise, as it does periodically happen with townhouses (see Sept 2023) only to fall back immediately. If you’re wondering what assessments might do in January, just look at how properties were selling close to the valuation date of July 1st. With properties selling very close to assessment around that time, on average there won’t be much change in the 2025 assessed values.
Meanwhile, the rental market is weakening as the government starts to make good on some promises to ramp down the numbers of non-permanent residents. I’ve heard several anecdotes of private landlords seeing suites targeted at international students going unfilled for the first time this fall, and owners of rental housing lowering their rents in response to weaker than expected demand.
Remember that literally all of the outsized growth that B.C. experienced in the last couple years is due to NPRs. Looking at only permanent immigration and natural growth (births and deaths), population growth in recent years would have been pretty unremarkable. And the thing about temporary residents is that their residence is, well, temporary. Even if we don’t get an actual outflow of NPRs, the growth rate without an increase in their numbers would very quickly drop back to normal or lower.
Meanwhile we have a very high rate of rental completions coming, with 3500 rental starts in the region in the last 12 months, which will complete and hit the market this year and next. Given we have around 70,000 renter households in the city, that’s an increase in the rental stock of nearly 5%. Excess population growth has overwhelmed those increases in housing stock the last few years and kept vacancy rates low, but don’t be surprised if we see a spike in the rental vacancy rate to levels we haven’t seen since the 90s. That should bring down rents (or at least bring back rental incentives).
Just don’t expect the outflow of temporary residents to make much difference to prices. Prices aren’t high because of recent population growth, and they’re not going to budge much when it returns to normal. That’s quite clear in Ontario data for example, where prices got clobbered due to rising rates in the exact period when population growth spiked due to NPRs.
There are second order effects from lower rents such as less of a draw for investors to buy units and less pressure on renters to jump into the purchase market, but if I had to put a number on it, I’d say 98% of current price levels have nothing to do with non-permanent resident numbers. Watchers hoping for this to be quick fix that finally fixes housing prices are likely to be disappointed.
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texture is off the ceilings and walls and the paint is on.
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how did you do that? My own box has popcorn looking ceiling texture, and I need to figure out how to remove it and repaint it..
thank you
The only change that I’ve seen is in the luxury market. That’s likely due to the problems happening in other parts of Canada where a lot of these buyers live. They have to sell their homes there before they can buy here.
The sweet spot for houses in the core is between $1,040,000 to $1,560,000. That’s where half the sales occur. For condos it’s between $450,000 to $660,000. The market for houses over $2,450,000 and condos over $990,000 is still crickets.
Sure Thursty, there have been 206 “new” listings just in the core in the last seven days to coincide with the first week after the kids are back in school.
A lot of them are just old listings that have been re-listed to build market excitement. However, re-listing works and should generate more sales. People get more excited when they are told that the property was listed yesterday. Less excited if they know the property was listed for 30 or 40 days. Fomo
If there is a 50bp cut in either of October or December then I think something dramatic might happen. Til then I think people are mostly tire kicking. Lets face it, nothing has changed in terms of people’s need, er I mean, want of property.
Not sure there would be anyway to get it but it would be interesting to see where the missing power went. I would assume that the forecast is a very simple look at last year and add a couple of percent. Given no other changes, probably as good as anything. At a guess, LED bulbs and people tired of paying for baseboard heating converting to either mini splits or NG. I find it very hard to believe that we are collectively lowering our lifestyle……
Good post, Josh.
Just gonna post this graph again. From BC Hydro’s own annual reports:
https://in-sights.ca/2023/09/04/bc-hydros-credibility-gap/
As long as Marko is out there doing all those open houses he loves so much.
Whatever , I don’t like to pump the market , but we could be bouncing off the bottom here . Went to a few open houses this weekend and could feel the fomo in the air
Hard not to improve over the last month. We’ve been bouncing along the bottom since June of 2022.
Had a good chinwag today with a broker , fall market sounds like it’s heating up . All round good news for anyone who has skin in the game
All the way to the SCC. And I can tell you that the opinion in Alberta is that Horgan pursued the case against TMX all too vigorously.
Horgan pursued the Site C evaluation about as vigioursly as he did cancelling TMX and Trudeau did election reform.
No that’s not what Horgan said. He said they would conduct an independent evaluation of the project and base a decision whether to continue on that. Horgan did say they would have not have started the project if it had been their decision.
About Site C, I saw this the other day https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZARb7pLQeo. Not saying it’s good information. This YT channel is mostly intellectual fast-food.
Summing up that project can’t really be done in a few sentences. It was proposed a long time ago for different reasons than it was approved. The predictions for usage haven’t panned out but the increase in population is significant. I’m not really convinced the public has access to verifiable independent data about real Hydro demand. It would appear the reason it was approved was for “renewable” natural gas processing. I find that reason unsatisfying as I doubt the province/gas companies will be paying their fair share of the project. Seems like a publicly funded fossil fuel subsidy hiding behind renewable goals. Voters voted for someone that said he was going to cancel it and then he just didn’t. So Canada’s reputation of being 7 resource companies in a trench coat continues and it doesn’t seem to matter what voters or native land rights groups do.
Foreign ownership and Private Equity
https://youtube.com/shorts/wmztF3zzT48?si=7CBpU-qhMt37d6x5
Anonymous501, I think most would prefer a middle income house over a townhouse or condominium of equal value. Unless the condo or townhouse was pretty special. And that is at the heart of the missing middle housing problem. There is a bottleneck in our housing market.
Property taxes for most of the last two decades on single family homes have not kept pace with price inflation. Now the municipalities are playing catch up with large tax increases every year. At the current rate of increases you’ll likely be paying double your current property taxes in less than ten years from now.
The months of inventory for starter homes and middle income housing in the core districts is still at low end of being balanced at just under three months. Starter houses are slightly higher than 3 months. While upper income excluding the top five percentile is closer to 5 months.
The market that is in dire straits is the uber rich market or the top five percentile of the market ($2,450,000 plus) that went from 11.5 months in July to 28 months in August as sales declined by 45% and new listing declined by 11 percent. This is where you’ll find most of the big drops in the original asking price to sale price to effect a sale.
Is the market for top end housing softening or are the real estate agents not pricing them realistically?
Westerly, the people you speak of have the option of deferring property taxes. When they move on then their inheritors will pay the taxes on the sale or deemed disposition. Or the future inheritors can step in and pay the property taxes today and reap the big score later. No one is kicking out your 78 year-old grandmother living in an 800 square foot home on a half acre lot in Oak Bay.
And for balance here is the strawman arguments against a land value tax.
https://youtu.be/ObZXYZ6qITA?si=Jg0HIZzVP6qSxT-E
More on the land value tax. Easier to use this format than try to use a blog with limited space to write. As you’ll see many are promoting this tax system for cities.
https://youtu.be/jIVytwEdlUg?si=HF0dVlLrqXoysy-K
https://youtu.be/ok2uR3btMrE?si=G_0cNNcNT0-bWSha
https://youtu.be/ypCVkSbGEqo?si=HNhMvCmY4U8pG_Ic
https://youtu.be/gJqCaklMv6M?si=X9UrZ_vG04mXoHuo
How can Canada reconcile Aboriginal title and the rights of people with property on that land?
https://archive.ph/Gahps
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-how-can-canada-reconcile-aboriginal-title-and-the-rights-of-people/
Westerly: That is the impact it would most likely have. They use empty land or parking lots for the example, but if you deferring all the property tax that is current collection from a condo tower and averaging it out on all other properties, it’s going to have a significant impact on the property taxs of SFH. It would start to create financial incentives for people that can’t afford it to abandon SFH. I’m biased, in that I live in a small SFH, so I’d have to absorb a significant increase to taxes. I’d rather live in my house than a condo. ugh.
Whatever, “tax landowners annually based on the value of their land and reduce or eliminate taxes on any developments made to it…” Do you have a BC or Canadian link to this idea? It sounds like the suggestions you have posited recently that is aimed, in part, at kicking retirees off their under-utilized land and into managed housing. Tax them to death.
Vicre , agreed , good quality core neighborhoods are a great investment
Frank , well was kinda thinking around my own neighborhood. I do drive down pandora but it’s usually for my own curiosity. I’m always fascinated by how people go about they’re day , fascinated
Thursty- Your talking about the homeless people, aren’t you. Strolling around, smelling the flowers before the crap in the bushes.
maybe in certain upscale areas of the core but definitely not everywhere, especially the Westshore.
Thursty you may want to consult with your doctor on your delusional drug side effects, if you are over leveraged and counting on significant house price increases to bail you out you may want to seek advcice from a professional financial planner, no seriously.
Bluesman, I would agree . I think condos will be affordable but sfh will be for the 1 percent and will far outpace the last 20 years . Goverments and special interest groups will push sfh into the stratosphere .
Housing economists have come up with an interesting idea that may solve the housing issue.
Cities and towns are dealing with either an abundance of underused land or a shortage of houses – or both. The simple solution could address both problems and help solve the affordability crisis.
The idea is to tax landowners annually based on the value of their land and reduce or eliminate taxes on any developments made to it, such as apartments, office building, or retails stores. Those on the left like that it’s a more progressive tax, while free-market conservatives like how efficient and pro-development it is.
More than a dozen cities in Pennsylvania have had success with land value taxes. Since the taxes were first levied, new construction has shot up in places like Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, and Allentown.
Raising taxes on land and lowering them on homeowners as a way to fight blight and encourage building. Making it more expensive for investors to buy up and sit on underutilized land such as parking lots and vacant property in the city, just waiting for it to appreciate while actively hurting the neighborhood.
This fixes a problem created by property taxes, which tax the investments made to land. It would incentivize landowners to maximize the revenue from their property -being an apartment building instead of, for example, a parking lot.
Because rich individuals and corporations own most land in cities and towns, land tax would disproportionately fall on the wealthiest. People who don’t own land or whose land isn’t very valuable would benefit hugely under this scheme.
I would not bet on Canadian RE performing similarly over the next 20yrs as is has over the last 20yrs.
‘Irate’ woman slaps person doing yard work in Oak Bay: police
https://cheknews.ca/irate-woman-slaps-person-doing-yard-work-in-oak-bay-police-1209017/
Don’t have to be rich to enjoy Victoria . It’s free to stroll around and enjoy the flowers and sunshine, and everything else the island has to offer .
If instead of just millionaire you said “mortgage free” then that would include both millionaires and the homeless.
Victoria is perfect, if you’re a multimillionaire.
Yes. Especially in a city like Victoria, in 2023:
—- voted # 1 small city in the world to visit by 800k Conde Naste readers worldwide. https://globalnews.ca/video/10010640/victoria-b-c-crowned-worlds-best-city-to-visit-by-award-winning-travel-magazine-conde-nast
—- declared #1 most livable city in Canada by Globe and Mail https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/article-canada-most-livable-city-victoria-bc/
“ comprehensive Globe and Mail data analysis project in partnership with Environics Analytics Group Ltd. found Victoria to be Canada’s most livable city overall. Almost any resident you ask will agree on the key components that make it a great place to live: access to nature, incredible bike infrastructure, mild weather that makes a camping trip possible in the winter and the lifestyle of a mid-sized city.”
Don’t see a problem with Canada being all in with real estate , it’s worked swimmingly the last 20 years . A combination of pumping immigration with ever lower rates keeps the economy humming along , just everyone needs to get in on a great gig .
Non-leveraged investors got wealthier too. S&P 500 total return including dividends from 1997 to today is 10X for an un-levered investment.
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/
Rising home prices make you feel richer. We have been addicted to housing in Canada as we’ve been conditioned to see our homes as financial assets.
If you sell your home then you can realize that investment. But chances are you would be selling and buying in the same market so not all of that wealth increase is realized.
Rising prices make you feel richer but not necessarily does it make you wealthier.
More precisely, uneven affluence. Those who owned leveraged assets won big as interest rates declined from record highs to record lows. Since that didn’t actually create real wealth, others became poorer in real terms.
Yes to operating cost. I don’t have enough bills yet to do a real comparison, but I’d wager it’ll be >5x more for less living space (for energy). I’m going to sidestep the quality of life question as my ‘comfort’ complaints are about as first-world-problem as they come.
What happened to Canada? Affluence. Average household wealth (net worth) now over $1 million in 2023.
Canada is one of the wealthiest countries in the world (11th highest average wealth per adult out of 164 countries.). Higher than USA. And 5X average higher wealth than the typical country that immigrants left to come to Canada.
In case it isn’t obvious, a side product of affluence/wealth is expensive housing, which is seen in Canada and all of the other wealthy countries in the top 15 like Canada. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_per_adult
And yes, not everyone is wealthy, but the rates of poverty are falling and hopefully that will continue to improve. And as Canadians get wealthier, expect home prices to keep rising.
The condo market may be in recessionary territory as the role of investors, which made up to 50% to 70% or more of buyers, vanished. Many of these investors were once buying with negative cashflows, personally topping up rents to cover mortgage payments and banking solely on appreciation. Stagnating prices killed appreciation.
For condo investments to regain their appeal, we have to wait for resale prices and rents to rise faster, and interest rates to decline more significantly.
Typically as inventory of unsold units increases, developers would lower their prices and end-users would step in. However, the gap between what end-users can afford and what investors were paying is just too wide to close. Developers faced with super inflated costs for materials and wages don’t have much wiggle room to lower prices. Developers are caught between a rock and a hard place of not being able to lower prices and unsold units are likely to fall into bankruptcy. No small wonder why most developers are switching to purpose built rentals (PBRs).
But with thousands of rental units coming onto the market in the next year and weakening rental rates these PBRs may also follow the same fate as condominiums. A PBR is unlikely to remain solvent with a double digit vacancy rate.
Thankfully most people in the city don’t do this or we’d be a stinky polluted mess.
The younger generations don’t want to do hard work like construction. Good luck finding anyone to do anything physical, there are a few, but they can name their price.
The Vancouver Special for multi-family? The Province is releasing duplex, triplex, quadplex and townhouse designs in the attempt to take away 80 percent of the work required to get the homes through city hall to get approved.
But that won’t necessarily lead to lower prices since home prices are set by the market not what it costs to build. The biggest challenge to lower construction costs are the cost of land and wages.
These units may be buildable but at the same time there’s still an issue of affordability. We won’t see a significant drop in construction costs until builders can slash wages paid to subcontractors and employees by half. And that isn’t likely without a housing recession.
and this tennis court incident in Oaklands Park is on the heels of this just two months ago -> https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/dozens-may-have-walked-by-dead-person-at-victoria-park-9131469
and its not like Oaklands Park is big, by park standards it is very small.
30 years ago my parents came from Croatia and in 1997 bought a house next to Oaklands Park (the location of the subject story), so let’s go back to 1997
Fast forward to today
wtf happened.
European car show on at the oak bay marina . For all the car enthusiasts in the group , lots of great local cars , a nice outing
Relax thursty, that’s the shitty part of oak bay. People there often love to throw out they live in oak bay but in reality it’s Richmond lol.
Likely coping, my house is electric baseboard, with central air and natural gas, brother’s is heat pump. Neither of us notices much of a difference, our, spouses and parents don’t either.
Parks are no place housing . A glut of new rentals on the way , don’t see a problem there
Why not enshittify parks by adding rental housing!
Idea of rental housing in Oak Bay park draws backlash
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/idea-of-rental-housing-in-carnarvon-park-draws-backlash-9490345
Stark difference in terms of operating cost or quality in life?
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/senior-stymied-in-effort-to-split-half-acre-north-saanich-property-in-two-9490335
I think you underestimate your own abilities. At the Promontory, for example, the unit is in the ceiling of the bathroom and you have to drop it to access the filter. Most people aren’t comfortable doing that on their own.
Meh…it’s a substantially nicer and more comfortable house at a fraction of the operating cost. I’m not here to convince anyone, but having lived in a high-performance house, and now in a low-performance house, there is a stark difference. Maybe you’d appreciate it as the difference between a European condo and Canadian one.
You can go online to your manufacturer and check the maintenance section of the manual. Your manufacturer (like most others) states to clean the filters and wash the core. If you can clean your car, you can take the hour a year it takes to clean your HRV (or, more like 10 minutes a year for a good HRV like a Zehnder).
Now that is the correct way to look at your principal residence!! Good on you my man!
I don’t care what its worth. Its just a house. I live in it with my Wife and two kids. Its in between Langford lake and Glen lake. Westshore town center Starlight stadium area.
LMAO so basically your house is worth less than a nice condo in vicwest even with the down turn in condo prices? And what is th heart of a westshore? Is that Costco or Superstore? Serious question.
ignore him. VicREanalyst seems to be a young immature internet troll who enjoys putting down others any chance he has. Sounded like he works at bci based off his earlier conversations, not a good look… if i were him i’d consider being more respectful.
At least I’m living in a 2600 sq/ft house on a 10,000 sq/ft lot in the heart of the westshore that’s almost paid off…Dink face!
Couple decades later and still have a mortgage on a house in the westshore and trying to figure out how to build a garden suite to move into…. I see it’s gone well for you given how the RE market has done in the the past 2 decades…..
https://www.radionl.com/2021/02/22/occupancy-at-b-c-jails-down-about-30-per-cent-compared-to-pre-pandemic-times/
As well, I think I read (can’t find the link now) they have a crisis in youth corrections because officers outnumber inmates something like 8-1 and they will need to start laying off. The preference is to keep violent youth in schools and they don’t suspend or expell them for threatening or assaulting other students anymore.
A part of Eby pointing at Ottawa about the new parole law is trying to get people to forget his years at Pivot Legal Society trying to make this happen. Followed by years as solicitor general stacking crown prosecution offices and parole boards with like minded people that halted many types prosecutions and many that should have stayed incarcerated getting out earlier and more often. The other big one is under funding courts (which all party’s have done when in power) because of a presumption of innocence, judges just can’t just keep someone in jail for 2-3 years awaiting a trial. So, they have to cut them loose on to the streets and everyone should be blaming to provincial government for it mostly, and a bit of blame for the crazy social justice parole rules the feds brought in as well. Just remember, from those at municipal hall the provincial legislature, and the federal parliament are they people that were elected by the public and we have ourselves to blame for letting these ideological based activists run the their non-scientific, personal belief social experiments on the public.
I agree, but the jails are full. They will just keep coming and coming and coming. Next they will all be procreating in all those tents if they haven’t already started.
I have played this game for a couple decades. 2025 is a federal election year. Discount rate 2.75% five year fixed by late 2025.
70% of Canadians are homeowners.
Likely have to have some type of special certification or license to do that as a commercial business. Don’t know how much of a pain that is given it’s Canada.
Any basis for that or do you think the your bank just loves you that much? For fixed to goto 2.75 the BoC 5 year needs to be like 1.5% at most FYI. It’s currently at 2.8 which at a high level already prices in the rate cuts people are expecting.
Lol wait your that guy thinks the westshore is the best and where all the wealth is. LMAO, well that was a waste of my time trying to explain mortgage rates and bond yields to you.
Not sure when people being assholes started being classified as mental illness. Maybe if we rolled that back and stopped using the catch all excuse for bad behaviour “mental health issues” and simply enforce the law for assaults, robberies, thefts and vandalism with good old fashion jail time, we might make some progress. We don’t need involuntary treatment measures, simply just make parole dependant participating treatment and testing clean before release (the old rehabilitation model). Instead of what they moved to 10-15 years ago of mandatory parole. But I guess attempting to modify the behaviour is probably stigmatizing and nobody should be made to feel they are responsible for their own actions because it’s all apparently society’s fault.
I think my discount rate will be 2.75% five year fixed by late 2025.
LMAO, how do you figure you can get into the high 2s by 2025? Really curious
I wouldn’t be locking into anything fixed right now. I’m riding out a 5 year fixed at 1.86% that matures 29 OCT 2025. Every other month they send me a letter wanting me to blend. I’m riding this pony right until the last day. I’m expecting mid to high 2’s at renewal.
Talked to one of the members in my group at the course this morning, he got a mortgage commitment on Friday (principal residence, uninsured) at 4.15% for 5 year fixed with TD (flexline product). He does have over $3M+ with TD though through wealth management etc.
Move to a municipality that has the RCMP as its law enforcement. They know how to handle it better.
Mental illness – hand prints made with feces on the nets too – nice.
Who knows for sure – doubt it will be investigated – but seems like a logical outcome of permitting overnight camping for homeless people in this park.
The untreated ill and addicted are harming themselves and others and case law supports this insofar as the right to shelter when shelter beds are less than the number of unsheltered. The small point of a right to shelter temporarily in parks ignores the big picture consequences. Like how are municipalities supposed to address this when homelessness is not within their jurisdiction or budget – only municipal bylaw enforcement is? And how can a court case that protects the right to security of the person result in a completely foreseeable escalation of violence and harm to these same individuals AND to all those in the vicinity?
Psychiatric facilities like Riverview performed an important function in our society and for people who cannot care for themselves and if they were not perfect they were most certainly better than what we are have now.
Roof replacement is a maintenance issue. Insurers have never covered maintenance issues.
Exactly. With the annual $200 maintenance required and the replacement cost of the heat pump after ten years (without the grants this time)…Its like spending $10 dollars on a ten cent peace. My primary heat is a wood stove followed by baseboard heat as the secondary.
+1, I sold mine two weeks before the eight year battery warranty ran out and then just bought a new one with an eight year battery warranty 🙂
There are number of private outfits in Croatia repairing 10 yr old Tesla batteries for really cheap -> https://evclinic.eu/category/ev/tesla/battery-repair/
My friends’ battery died on a Model S, Tesla wanted 15,000 euros for a new battery and they had the faulty cells repaired by a private outfit for 1,600 euros and back on the road and it hasn’t crapped out since the repair a year ago.
I am surprised we don’t have such outfits here.
Another b.s. post from a typical Internet armchair expert. The only significant issue with EVs are the high cost of replacement batteries should it get damaged either due to driver error or defect once outside of the warranty period.
Unlike heat pumps vs baseboards Teslas have less moving parts than their comparable (ICE cars). Sold my old Tesla after 8 years and 272,500 km with the original brake pads at 70% at time of sale.
Heat pumps are something like Teslas. Short life span.
Seems like such marginal improvements more costs upfront. My house was super simple. Gas fireplace, mini-split heatpump x4 heads, and baseboards. Cheapest Milgard windows I could buy, etc., and even with the suite and the Tesla I was still around 3k/year. You upgrade to fancy windows and bill drops to $2,800 and payback is 50 years.
Or you go traditional heatpump throughout the house to save $200/year and then need to replace it in 10 years for 10k+.
I completely understand upgrading an old house in terms of windows/insulation/heating but fussing over newer homes and driving up building costs in a housing crisis, not sure. I lived in places with baseboards and a bathroom fan and it was totally fine. You open a windows for some airflow and all good.
These days I live in a condo with surface to air heatpump and drive an EV so I see the benefits but just not 100% in agreement with the government pushing certain agendas like banning gas, giving out rebates on EVs, etc. I think it is non-sense I received 7k from the government when I purchased my new Tesla recently.
Not sure about that. I own a unit in one of the new Dockside towers and constant discussion in our FB page re annual servicing of ERVs…buildings only a year old.
From our building FB page
“Hi Everyone, In case you were wondering about the ERV model message we received from ‘council’, I have looked into the issue:
Our original Maintenance Quote was based on the ERV model published in our Home Owners Manual (RERV D100ES). A different ERV model was identified in Bosa’s punchlist manager, under Documents (RERV C100 ECM). They are slightly different in that the C100 has no defrosting or drainage components. This is the correct model, and thus SIM has reduced their quote by $32.”
ERVs/HRVs don’t need a technician to service. Change filters once or twice a year, wash core every couple of years (hose it with water). They are, by far, the best bang for the buck in terms of energy saving mechanical equipment.
Latest in building science is the push for a far better envelope (step code/PH). These are all ‘passive’ technologies- ie – insulation, air sealing, and better windows/doors. These are things that never need maintenance (well, maybe windows/doors need adjustment once), and have extremely long lifespans.
Heat pumps are getting pretty darn good, but I agree they’re a mechanical system with moving parts and will require maintenance and eventual replacement. There is a movement out of the UK which is trying to push bad installers out of the heat pump market. With the inflow of government cash/grants there, a number of underqualified people are installing HPs and their installs are done poorly – leading to a fair bit of backlash.
Oaklands Park tennis court defaced with feces
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/oaklands-park-tennis-court-defaced-with-feces-9488672
Yes, but we are going to have work done on it. The 1950s ducting low hang limits the use of the full height basement (no thought went into thin and hidden at the time of install). There’s still 10 years left in the oil tank insurance wise, probably 100 years actually. The big reasons for us to change is to recover usable space and the best cost. I am comfortable with going with the natural gas furnace because the most of the cons to it seems mostly just the eco-zealot dogma akin to the cow fart taxes in Denmark.
I don’t think it’s a new thing. My insurer was pretty keen on us replacing our water heater (which made sense). And this year, I had some real trouble getting proper insurance because our roof is 25 years old. Of course I’m going to replace it, I just didn’t feel like doing it right now. Insurer said ok but you have to waive roof damage from the insurance coverage. And I was ok with that until I saw the wording of the waiver, which waived any & all consequential damage to the roof structure or rest of the house. So I had to switch insurers, until I get the roof done.
Even 15 years ago, I had trouble getting proper insurance on a house with knob & tube wiring.
Obviously, a lot of these requested/required upgrades make a ton of sense.
I think part of the reason all of this comes as a surprise to some folks is maybe they’re doing insurance with some kind of simplified online thing like TD where the insurer makes a bunch of assumptions that the homeowner never bothers verifying or correcting, and then they pay their cheap insurance and assume they are properly insured – which they probably are not.
Is this a new thing, insurance companies wanting people to replace or do things? I got a letter with my insurance renewal saying my furnace is 30 years old and it needed to be replaced or serviced every year. I don’t have a central furnace and had called them in the past to correct. The woman said that was the closest thing. I have baseboards and a mini-split heat pump/AC with one head. I also just read on another page about someone who was given a great rate and then the company sent an inspector and now they have to make repairs as directed and their rates went up.
Do you have ducting already? I just had my oil furnace and tank removed this week and got a Moovair heatpump. It goes to -20c! To be fair I also had a 16 year old Trane heatpump that we replaced as well so we already had the wiring in place. The Trane only heats to -5c (and even then it struggled) so we had to keep the oil as backup and we also only have 100amp so we couldn’t go with an electric furnace as backup at the time.
My insurance company wanted me to replace my oil tank because it was older than 15 years, and the furnace is at least 30 years old, so I figured I may as well replace everything. The new heatpump and air handler use the existing double-pole 30amp breaker, and I actually GAINED the 15amp breaker back that the furnace was using.
The Moovair was 12,650+gst, with 10 year warranty (parts & labour), while the Fujitsu was 16,300 with 12yr warranty, but only rated to -15C.
So is the plan is to ban gas so we can import more electricity? If everyone was to switch to heatpumps and EVs we probably need 10 more Site Cs.
A building (only 9 yrs old) I own a rental unit needs a new chiller – $850,000 special assessment coming up in January. Luckily my unit is only 430 sq.ft. but the 1,200 sq.ft. units are looking at $8k/unit or basically like 15 years worth of hydro bills if the units had electric baseboards/bathroom fan(s) setup.
This doesn’t include the fact that in theory you need to get the unit inside your condo serviced once a year and South Island Mechanical charges $300+gst for the service or the equivalent of one years worth of electricity.
I currently have clients buying a 40 year old condo and inspection revealed that every single 40 year old baseboard works, go figure that something simple would last forever.
When it comes to ERVs, heat pumps, and all the latest in building science and efficiency is there ever the economic cost and environmental cost of something such as a technician coming once a year in a van to service these systems accounted for? The fact that a heatpump isn’t going to last 40 years like a baseboards, etc.
Seeing some big decreases from original asking prices in downtown condos
A pending sale in the Union was listed by the agent in October last year at $699,000 just sold for $485,000. A 44 percent drop. It’s hard to fathom that an agent could be that far off in pricing.
Another in Mermaid Wharf originally listed at $649,999 in March of this year with an accepted offer at $547,276. A drop of 16 per cent.
Another in the Jukebox originally listed at $765,000 in May 2023, sold at $665,000. A difference of 13 per cent
The Pearl listed in March at $544,000. Sold at$452,000. A difference of 17 per cent
The Manhattan listed at $500,000 in January. Sold at $425,000. 15% difference.
Is it vendor pricing or are some agents mispricing?.
A good time to buy is now to get ahead of the curve, with interest rates crashing ,prices can only go up up and away
That would be awesome. Because it means that homes are affordable, but people want to hold out for even better deals with nicer homes. Which means no housing crisis for the “picky” buyers. Instead, we could talk about the problems for housing sellers. And the government can forget about focusing on housing and deal with more important issues, such as healthcare, and addictions .
I don’t expect this to happen by the way. Because the basic problem is too many well-heeled Victoria buyers chasing too few “acceptable” (ie core SFH) houses.
Where? St. John’s Newfoundland.
If home buyers are anticipating more interest rate cuts they are more likely to hold off from purchasing.
Lots of downtown condo listings expired this week. Average days on market for expired listings was 107 days.
It will be interesting to see what happens, what if there’s no fall market uptick with declining rates?
Unemployment is on the rise. It may sound that falling interest rates are good, but what they are showing is the economy is in trouble.
Do you go for extended warranties, cell phone contracts, auto pay gym contracts, reverse mortgages, timeshares and being a part of Amway?
No man…
What I’m seeing is they rent a couple big box sea cans, move all their belongings into them and put them in storage. Then they go away for six months and come back to a new house with all the latest and greatest shit.
With falling interest rates , I think a good plan would to add on more debt . Mortgage wars are a cometh .
Croatia
Well then, where are they going to live? Pandora?
Falls under debt as they don’t want to carry more debt by keeping their home.
No, but I would suggest they wait it out. I expect 1/2 cut followed by anther 1/4 cut this year. I also expect 1/4 cuts all through 2025.
If major means more frequent I would think moving up or down is more frequent than death. You only die once after all.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-involuntary-mental-health-care-must-be-dignified-and-humane-bc-premier/
Okay, so what do you suggest? Other than bugs.
Would a person that sells but doesn’t have to sell be a major reason?
Right. And a big part of food cost is the energy to produce it, which includes fossil fuels ( nat gas) used in producing fertilizer, which has helped raise food output 4X over last 50 years. And lowered world hunger by 50%.
Increased energy production means cheaper energy and food, which help everyone, especially the poor.
Maybe you mean have to sell?
The major reasons why people sell are Death, Divorce and Debt.
Don’t forget the energy it takes for a human just to function (food). Energy is getting very expensive for humans just to function.
“Many people don’t give a lot of thought to the energy that runs our province, but there’s more to energy in BC than hydro. “
“ [in 2018, BC] hydro power met [only] about 17 per cent of BC’s energy needs – slightly more than biofuels”
https://talkingenergy.ca/stories/facts-about-where-bcs-energy-comes
BC energy use, by source: (in 2018)
Oil 36% (gasoline, diesel)
Nat gas 30%
electricity 18% (mostly hydro, some wind and solar)
Biofuels 15% (wood waste etc.)
Other 1%
Some people just get bored with their house…It doesn’t mean their broke. What I’m seeing is small scale renovations of existing houses explode these days. People would rather just add new vibrancy to their existing house then go through the hassle of selling, buying, moving, commissions, taxes, etc…
To them it’s a brand new house again…Even if it costs $300k.
And that’s a good thing because 1) big projects cannot be built economically anymore, and 2) droughts impacting hydro reservoirs will likely become more common, as was the case in 2023.
So what do you make of this?
https://in-sights.ca/2023/09/04/bc-hydros-credibility-gap/
Agreed. And we should all be thankful, because “there but for the grace of God go I”.
I can’t agree that we couldn’t use more dams, but I can agree that no more big ones will be built in B.C.
Over a decade ago I went to the public hearing for Site C in Victoria and was one of the very few speaking in favour while the vast majority were against. Many said we didnt need the power, but they were wrong. The only reason why we wouldn’t need the power is because we do things like strap two stroke engines to our backs to move leaves from one place to a slightly different place.
The poverty line in BC is 20-23k.
Do you honestly know no-none who is legitimately medically disabled and cannot work? I personally know several, including persons with brain tumours, autism, cancer, severe auto-immune disorders and chronic disabling injuries.
PWD is about $1,358 a month to live, $1,458 if they pay more than $500/month for shelter. A room rental in Victoria is $800/month minimum.
If you become disabled before you have had a chance to save much you are out of luck unless you have good family support.
Great explanation of why we have a temporary housing shorrtage
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71IKdhHGM0o&t=684s
How do people become poor? (Especially in this country). They lose their ability to work due to drug abuse or alcoholism. Lots of work out there for $15-20 an hour, you just have to show up reliably and make an effort.
On-premise batteries becoming mainstream should make things interesting. Even better will be when EVs become part of the grid infrastructure (V2L/V2G).
Fixed mortgage rates of below 4% are being spotted in Canada for the first time in years
https://archive.ph/wVnRp
Agreed. And I hope, as Site C nears completion, that we can all agree that we don’t need more major hydro projects and we do need to add a lot more wind and solar, of which B.C. has relatively little.
Dams and solar are not an either/or. In fact they complement each other perfectly. The massive energy storage capacity of dams and the “instant” on/off ability of hydro is exactly what we need to be able to incorporate lots of wind and solar.
Starting on Oct. 1, construction sites with 25 or more workers will be required to provide flush toilets and hand-washing facilities.
The rules will require toilets that are connected to a sewer system or holding tank
I am sure the municipalities will make this process as simple and inexpensive as possible
https://cheknews.ca/universally-despised-porta-potties-out-flush-toilets-in-for-b-c-construction-sites-1208645/
Meh , just a guess but folks are confusing mental illness with a lifetime of drug use that has fried they’re brains .
Yes. And pretty much zero visible homelessness. I’m not fussed about people with campers who are not a public nuisance.
Gonzalez Park is Victoria. OB police have no jurisdiction unless asked to attend through the mutual coop agreement with Victoria and that is usually only in an emergency is my understanding.
The people you see in Pandora and wandering the streets are very likely to fall in the hard to house categories of addiction, brain damage and untreated mental illness. This should not be legal imo and there should be involuntary legally mandated services and housing. Get them off the streets and make it legal to do so.
People who are homeless due to poverty alone are probably a lot less visible. Couch surfing and living in cars are hard on health and I support more funding for accelerated access to subsidized housing for those who will not cause trouble to neighbours but need the help and have limited options otherwise.
I don’t support legalizing parking lot camping for anyone. I support court ordered provincial and federally funded and managed alternatives.
In Europe unused parking lots on the outer rim of cities are being used for people living in trailers. There are little villages and even some electricity etc. I think part of the problem is that we tend to think of the homeless as all the same. There are also people who live in cars, trailers, etc… Maybe there is a solution for those folks that wouldn’t work for the people in tents. But maybe it’s worth it to try to fix at least that one part of the problem. Probably the parking lots suggested by Alto are too close to the public. A more realistic option would be parking lots in semi industrial areas on the outskirts of the city. That would be for the folks living in cars/trailers – not for the tenters.
And also not all homeless are on drugs. Some are just very poor. Important to remember that I think.
If the U.S goes 50 points there’s a good chance we will too . The trend is down and the faster the better
Harebrained idea thankfully voted down.
Using parking lots for temporary shelter nixed in tight Victoria council vote
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/using-parking-lots-for-temporary-shelter-nixed-in-tight-victoria-council-vote-9481671
Yes, because there wasn’t enough water flowing through the dams, as I understand it.
True, but it’ll take a long time before people and politicians get the memo.
Thursty, just youtube private equity real estate and how they make their money.
starting to see discussions of a potential 50 basis point cut in October.
Germany and Italy have totally scrapped their nuclear power infrastructure. France gets 70% of their power from nuclear. Go figure.
We’ll get a monorail from Langford before we get a nuclear plant.
Would be nice to have it, but there’s a 0% chance we are building a nuclear power plant anytime in the next 30 years in B.C. no matter who you vote for.
It’s a battle no longer worth fighting. Renewables are too cheap and easy to integrate into our grid
We imported two Site Cs worth of power in 2023. Gonna need a lot more capacity in the grid
I recently read that Site C, running full tilt, will increase BC Hydro’s overall supply by only 8%.
$16 billion for 8%.
Could have purchased solar panels for half the homes and businesses in B.C. for that price. The sun is gonna be far more reliable than water levels going forward, too.
Amazing people can’t find humour in things anymore.
Interesting, Leo. Thanks for sharing.
2014 sure was the good old days!
Nuclear energy surplus…?
Maybe elsewhere, but anyone who wants nuclear power in BC, will need to vote Conservative on Oct. 19. Given that latest polls have them tied with NDP, their vote may make the difference.
https://www.politicstoday.news/british-columbia-today/nuclear-energy-a-no-go-in-b-c-premier-eby-says/
“Nuclear energy a no-go in B.C., Premier Eby says
The NDP government has no plans to add nuclear to B.C.’s energy mix, despite the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) projecting the province will need to give nuclear power a chance if Canada is to reach its net-zero goal by 2050.“
The upcoming nuclear energy surplus should really help electrification and ease Introvert’s concerns about any future Site C dam like projects happening as well.
Yup. Though have you read this? Page 168 5.5 https://docs.bcuc.com/documents/proceedings/2024/doc_77680_b-1-bch-2024-ratedesign-application.pdf
They are looking to change to net billing at a different feed-in rate. Proposal coming Dec 20. That could lower solar returns.
Yes and yes.
With energy cranking up, it makes that interest-free loan for solar (Canada greener homes) a crazy good deal. Leo, have you switched to Hydro’s time-of-use plan? Do you charge the EV at night?
or more visually
I need to determine if there are any financial benefits to building a SSMUH over a SFD. While I’ve only done back-of-the-napkin math at this point, there isn’t a whole lot in it for my scenario (I don’t think). SSMUH I can’t build under owner-builder, comes with more stringent fire codes, cap gains, etc. SFD with ADUs I can build and in the end may end up about the same financial end result. I’m just not a fan of big SFDs in this environment.
In 10 years, the cost to run our house (w/o maintenance) has increased by 63%
That’s 26% ahead of inflation
Biggest increases are in
1. Insurance (+162%)
2. Taxes (+61%)
3. Energy (+45%)
Lowest increase? Phone/internet is 9% cheaper.
Not complaining, just noting.
I have to study this more but my first impression is to make the numbers work the units need to be large so you can take advantage of economies of scale. 1,800 sq/ft units are not going to be 50% more to build versus 1,200 sq/ft; however, if the units are large than the massing of these multiplexes becomes problematic for residential neighborhood lots and the NIYMBs come out.
Yeah, not sure anyone is going to build these given they appear to be discounting soft costs heavily in these numbers.
Whatever, how is it possible to owe 8 mil on a 8 mil property. That is some big leveraging right there
Gonzales and Pemberton are on the overnight camping approved list, unfortunately. Probably because of the washroom facilities at those locations. It looks like two have permanently moved in at Pemberton now. At least Hollywood and Lafayette parks are pretty short walks and nothing seems to be at those yet.
Maybe the Pandora folks haven’t caught on yet?
I see a camper at the Gonzales beach access every weekend morning about 8am packing up his tent. I expect being on a nice patch of grass next to a restroom is a good spot to be.
Colwood’s historic Pendray House under court order to sell. An 8,400 square feet home on 3.9 acres development property facing Esquimalt Lagoon.
Asking price $8 million. Court records state that 8.3 million in mortgages are owed. The finance company has some 350 investors.
I’ve only had time to analyze the quadplex 01 but with land 800k per unit….what da? You can get way nicer condos for 800k.
Isn’t Gonzalez designated as an overnight camping spot? Or are we going by technicality and counting the park portion on the west part of the beach as Victoria?
Of the permanent encampment variety pretty much 100% effective. However if you spend a bit of time biking, jogging, walking OB in pre-dawn hours it is surprising how many folks are camping in vehicles and tents/tarps/blankets even in OB
Totoro, ya the flock knows they’re not welcome so they stay on Vic side . Other muni’s should effectively sue Vic for enabling a drug and crime spree , those folks down there are playing people
One strong argument for local policing. OB has been extremely effective in keeping overnight campers from setting up.
Well no bums will be coming to oak bay parking lots . Vic can keep them and all they’re stupid crime and drugs
I have to hand it to the BC NDP on this one:
Canned designs: https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/farming-natural-resources-and-industry/construction-industry/building-codes-and-standards/guides/bc_std_des_catalogue_v1.pdf
Costing (ouch!): https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/farming-natural-resources-and-industry/construction-industry/building-codes-and-standards/reports/bc_std_des_class_d_estimates_v1.pdf
Now if they’d only scrap the Owner Builder, or, allow us to build multifamily…
There was no decapitation, as far as I can tell by reading.
The church parking lot thing sounds like a decent alternative to parks.
1) Tons of it is available on non-church days.
2) What would Jesus do?
3) They don’t pay any taxes and are so are subsidized by the public
4) you opt into religions, you cant opt out of the public. Parks are for everyone, not just the at risk, unhoused, mentally ill, addicted
The selling point for this council was that they would treat housing development much more favorably than those before. Have we really gotten that, or merely proposals like this, tampons in men’s washrooms at libraries, etc?
Agree 100%. The “church parking lot” proposal is indeed inane. And frightening as it shows how out of touch the city politicians are.
Your worries are unfounded. It is not like someone would randomly decapitate and kill a random member of the public and cut off another person’s arm -> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/queen-elizabeth-theatre-fatality-vancouver-police-investigation-homer-street-1.7312994
As for egress staircases.
https://youtu.be/ozwkP9Zsi0Y?si=D3lObxesEqhffRGc
Paid close to $6k for 200 amp upgrade last year.
Last week, for the first time, I saw syringes at a park bench well outside of the downtown core. The owner of the house in front of the bench came out and said not to touch them as she has the equipment for safe disposal and will take care of them.
The housing market is starting to get interesting again. I’m seeing large drops in original ask to sale ratio. A few properties sell well below assessed value and a couple of court ordered sales.
Very few equity take outs which are a precursory for investors looking to buy.
Too soon to tell how this will pan out.
https://youtu.be/YtLSs_EeEx4?si=a7X-7vHXYq2s8ciH
https://youtu.be/pbQAr3K57WQ?si=dC2VsCLA7yoW9H2i
This makes me worry – elected leadership throwing out an insane proposal. Maybe for shock value? Because if it is not it is by far the worst solution I’ve seen floated. Put mentally ill and drug addicted homeless people in parking lots in residential areas for overnight camping. What could go wrong?
The court case that permitted overnight camping in the first place needs to be overturned. There need to be enforceable rules against being a nuisance on the streets and mandated emergency rehousing and services provided by the provincial and federal government – not municipalities. Public streets, parks and parking lots are not okay for this. At all.
Umm really, sounds good , renovating never cheap
Well, and all new electrical ran to the kitchen, bathroom and added some exterior drops.
Ya that’s what I figured, wife wants a EV and a infrared sauna in the backyard…..
Dad, if I had and do have a 50s or 60s house with stab lok I myself would do an upgrade . 70s and newer not so sure . I just replaced 2 months ago a stab lol on a 62 house , totally tapped out and tripping breakers , found most screws on the breaker wires where loose , never a good thing .
Vicre , shouldn’t be too much as u will just need a sub box .
I already have 200 amp, just need some more space on the panel.
I’ve read this numerous times, but there are a probably hundreds if not thousands of those panels still in service in the CRD alone. Never heard of one bursting into flames.
Insurance companies don’t seem to care about the panels, and the breakers are still manufactured, so the risk seems overstated.
Paid $5k last year for a very straightforward mast and panel. $1k for Hydro to upgrade the service.
God this guy just doesn’t learn! From the same article:
Read the whole article before putting in your two cents. God I feel sorry for you…
https://financialpost.com/pmn/some-banks-rethinking-strategy-on-home-mortgage-competition
Umm really , so for 6 grand u got a new box, but no 200 amp hook up
Some Canadian banks say they’re starting to question how aggressively they go after mortgage customers amid intense competition.
RBC CEO Dave McKay says the bank is being more carful of when it competes for mortgage business in a “ruthlessly competitive” market. He says the bank is being more hesitant to try to win customers who are just shopping for the lowest rate.
Scotiabank CEO Scott Thomson has made multi-product sales a key focus of his strategy. He says the bank has reduced its share of customers with only a mortgage product and will likely not compete aggressively on rates for those clients.
Source: The Canadian Press Sept. 4, 2024
Every BoC cut means slightly lower monthly payments for people with variable-rate mortgages, and potential affordability gains for people hoping to get into the market. But people whose mortgage date back to the ultra-low-interest-rate pandemic era face a steep rise in payments upon renewal – an increase that a rate cut will improve only slightly.
Those rates could be sub two per cent, depending on what time they got it and now are renewing.
The BoC rate cut by a quarter per cent doesn’t mean that your fixed interest rates will go down the the same amount, like variables do as they are not directly related. You’d have to wait to see what impact would be on the bond market, and that would impact, then, the cost of funds and the pricing on fixed mortgages.
Came in at $6000. I did it a bit differently. Went with a 200 amp panel, but with 100 amp main in it (so we don’t need to another panel later) and put off the service upgrade until we need it. We were able to permit it as a repair, there was no disconnect and it needed to be done for insurance. Since we have some open grounds running spent some extra money to put in arc fault and ground fault breakers in. It was a cost plus job, so they seemed to be moving in slow motion a lot of the time.
I would budget 5+….4 is prices from three years ago.
“We should be at 3.75 by years end and lower yet yet next year . Should be all GO for prices next year”
House prices don’t climb in a recession, that is why rates are dropping, provincially and federally Conservatives may be in power and will be chopping jobs. Interest rate cuts take about 18 months to have an impact.
Much better places to put your money then homes, dividend payings stocks will contiue to soar as rates come down, I have a oversized positions in both CIBC and RBC that are up around 60% since last fall (including dividends). Those 5-8% dividends on Canadian telecomes stocks are also attravive as that industry treads water. And you dont have to deal with sketchy tenants and double digit property tax increases.
If u have a stab lok box best to get rid of it sooner than later as they can be a fire hazard
Vicre, a panel with a new mast should be about 4 grand . Hydro will want a grand for they’re bit . Hard to do a panel without moving the meter location
Yeah, the federal NDP’s poll numbers suck and the party is short on cash — can’t imagine they’re eager for a quick election. Seems like an optics play, at first blush.
How much was your panel? Going to add some features to the backyard and my current panel is full.
Bloc and NDP look be losing seats. It’s an optics move to stand away from the libs, but they will do everything they can to avoid an election. It will be a lot of Bloc and NDP MPs accidentally missing votes. It’s whether they want to let the government set an agenda for election with a spring budget or not to vote down. However, if the federal NDP want to pretend they are a viable alternative for government, they need to trigger sooner or later.. Typically, you need to sit as official opposition before the public trusts to vote you in as government. The fed NDP will need to believe or make the argument that it is better to have them as the official opposition against the conservatives than propping up a stale liberal government.
Yes, big news. Singh’s speech is here. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/jagmeet-singh-ndp-ending-agreement-1.7312910
Given the fall elections in BC and elsewhere (sk, nb, ns), pundits predicting a spring election at earliest. Singh and some other MP’s qualify for their lifetime pensions as of February 25, 2025, so don’t expect an election before then.
I’d expect a spring election. It would be hard for the NDP to be blasting the Liberals yet continuing to support them until fall 2025.
BNN- NDP pulling out of support agreement with Liberals. Hopefully that triggers an election soon.
8 weeks down
Take a small breather and start digging new drains before the rains really hit in October and then make an assessment and budget for the downstairs.
The expanded inventory really paid off. As inventory grew my buying area shrank from Sooke and Sidney and it came all the way to the Margaret Jenkins catchment where we purchased.
Only negative, we might be looking at a gas with an AC coil instead of a heat pump (still pricing options). It looks like if you can afford to buy in this area, you really don’t get the big heat pump rebates anymore. Apparently, the feds partnered with BC gov on rebates and they made it all income and real estate value tested now. I will do some more leg work and post what my quotes come in at.
Highly doubt it on an uninured mortgage, maybe insured. I had clients obtain a 4.34% insured 5-year fixed recently.
Good information exchange btw Mark and Umm.. really. No armchair general google link b.s. or someone who read a few textbooks masquerading as an expert.
Right so getting 4% right now on a 5 year fixed should be possible.
At the time. About 23 points off the discounted non posted so called best rate offer. And something like 170 points or so off the posted rates ( I learned posted rates are mostly make believe to convince people their offer is a great deal).
If I was risk adverse and the best fixed product was 4.74% and the best variable was 5.5% (and I could afford 5.5%), for example, I would go into a variable product that allows one to switch over to a fixed at any point and just phone the bank every month and ask for an offer to switch to a fixed product, but don’t switch if the fixed product remained under 5%. The minute it hits 5% you lock into a fixed and that way you take away the risk of it running up to 6, 7, 8% if you are worried about risk.
My best guess is that people are so fixated on the immediate monthly payment that when they see 4.74% in-infront of them with a lower payment than the 5.5% variable they just go 4.74% without giving too much as thought as to what is likely to transpire in the next year or so.
Umm Really, how much did you manage to grind the rates down vs the posted rate?
It’s now Leo against NIMBY firefighters.
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/b-c-firefighters-raise-concerns-over-new-stairway-building-code-1.7024363
Missing out on paying 3% while paying 4% won’t change your life one bit, paying 8% when you could be paying 4% will change your life.
Not exactly at 4% but within 25-30bps should be doable. Didn’t that umm really get 4.78% couple months ago after some negotiating when everyone else was getting 5%? Should be about 25bps of play with the posted rates.
Risk aversion? Anyone who isn’t a multimillionaire and had a variable rate mortgage during the last few years has gotta be feeling a bit burned. Right now the bank is in rate cutting mode with no end in sight, but two months ago the direction was less clear. I gambled on a 3 year fixed and have four rate cuts to go before the variable interest rate I had (with kind of a shitty discount admittedly) would be lower than the fixed rate I locked into. Starting to look like that’s gonna happen sooner rather than later and I would have been better off sticking with the variable rate, but I can live with that.
Funny how quickly the “higher for longer” narrative faded away…
You can get a variable around 5.5%…..not sure I am seeing fixed products at 4%.
Fixed has already priced in the 1.5% of cuts right now. You might be able to get 3% 5 year fixed by 2026, but that is likely the floor IMO.
Yes that is correct, it gets a little messy as now you could have a bunch of a smaller maturities staggered throughout (which may be a good thing too) and it makes it tougher to switch lenders. But the benefit is protection from another rate spike (if you go with the fixed product) while DCA your rate down.
The forecast calls for 1.5% drop in overnight rates, so if you’re currently at 5.5% with variable you can expect to be at around 4% once the cuts are done. That isn’t too far off from where 5 year fixed is currently. If your balance isn’t big it’s not worth the time to over think it but for people out there with$1M+ balances, then it could be worth while to do some maneuvering.
and you can’t chase the fixed products down either other than the 15%. Odds are fixed rates will be coming down too.
15% per year means 85% would still be at the fixed rate and then 70% the second year and so on…..which is a lot if rates come down as expected by forecasts.
I have a TD mortgage with their flex line product. If you do a fixed right now and provided you have enough equity you can effectively refinance 15% of the loan balance every year (max prepayment) into whatever term product you want. You have the protection of a fixed rate mortgage with the option to float part of your mortgage down as rates come down.
Ya that sounds about right. I’d remove BCI though, that’s an outlier compared to the rest of your list.
Yes but this is priced at 100k less than the Jan 2023 transaction which is the trough in the current downturn. So I guess the current owner overpaid…
We should be at 3.75 by years end and lower yet yet next year . Should be all GO for prices next year
There are some things specific to this home such as photo 33/37 that are not common on BM either.
The Bank of Canada cuts the key interest rate by 25 points today, marking the third decrease since June for a cumulative drop of 75 points bringing its key lending rate to 4.25 per cent.
For those on fixed incomes it might be an idea to lock in long-term rates on GICs.
I can see where the nickname “Bare Mountain” came from. It’s also a strata with monthly fees of $151.20 which is likely to turn off some buyers.
It’s priced almost exactly at BC Assessment by the way.
It isn’t rocket science. As I’ve said before the majority of my transactions include at least one individual employed by BC Gov, BCi, Ferries, Military, UVIC, Island Health, etc., and the average wage increase for these institutions must be around 12% +/- over three years? Condo prices down substantially from peak, and now BOC third cut in a row. Throw in very few condo projects being built as developers have switched to apartments.
I don’t expect a price recovery in the condo market but certainly stability going forward.
As expected another rate cut this morning.
I am really perplexed as to why more people aren’t going with variable products right now. With the next cut I am going to be below the best 3-year fixed option (at the time I had to commit) and according to my mortgage broker if I phone TD Easyline directly at any point they are super aggressive on fixed term rates if I want to switch over to a fixed. You get the benefit of the dropping rates and you can follow the 3-year and 5-year fixed down as well and switch over or just stick to the variable and follow the BOC drops. I am only 30 days into funding so if they do another cut into October I’ll be less than 90 days of funding slightly above the 3-year fixed and most likely 33/36 months below the 3-year fixed.
What I am missing? (other than rates going up which seems unlikely).
I can’t speak negatively of fellow agents’ listings as per our code of conduct.
Take a close look at photos…..for example photo 33/37, as one example.
When rates hiked we said 12 to 18 months to realize their impact. I suspect it would be the same with rate cuts.
Marko, what is wrong with this house? Price seems low
https://realtor.ca/real-estate/27291752/1161-nature-park-pl-highlands-bear-mountain?utm_source=consumerapp&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=socialsharelisting