Some housing targets are not like the others
The province has announced that most of our regional municipalities will be subject to housing targets, with timelines starting either last October, this May, or in the near future. That means municipalities will be required to add the specified number of new homes over a five year period. Municipalities that fail to do so will first get assistance to hit the targets from the province, and then supposedly be hit with various direct interventions to permit more housing. Local municipalities with housing targets are detailed in the table below. The province has not publicly released the numerical targets for Colwood, North Saanich, and View Royal.
| Municipality | 5 year target | 2023 Population | Target per 1000ppl |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saanich | 4610 | 125,380 | 37 |
| Victoria | 4902 | 100,505 | 49 |
| Colwood | 940 | 21,403 | 44 |
| Esquimalt | 754 | 19,017 | 40 |
| Oak Bay | 664 | 18,888 | 35 |
| Central Saanich | 588 | 18,369 | 32 |
| North Saanich | 419 | 13,228 | 32 |
| Sidney | 468 | 13,151 | 36 |
| View Royal | 585 | 12,584 | 46 |
Targets vary fairly substantially by municipality, with Victoria being given the target for the highest growth in percentage terms, while bedroom communities like Central Saanich get lower ones.
Housing targets are for “net new” units, in other words completions minus demolitions. The actual targets are based on the methodology below (detailed here) or the municipalities’ own housing targets, which are generally conservative and not very standardized. That’s being corrected with interim housing needs reports that municipalities will have to create this year based on the UBC HART methodology. While that will have large impacts on future OCP updates and zoning, it’s not directly relevant to the topic of housing targets.
The targets themselves are a curious mix of ambition though. Comparing the targets we have so far to the existing rate of construction, we can see a wide variation in where municipalities are today relative to where the province has said they should be.
Or shown a different way, here is where the current (trailing two year) building rates sit in relation to the provincial targets.
Oak Bay obviously builds little other than single family replacements (which won’t do much for the net-new targets) and is far below the provincial target. Saanich too builds very little given the size and population. Central Saanich has a gap between completions and targets that seems entirely feasible to fill with just a few more projects.
What’s surprising is that the targets for Victoria, Esquimalt, and Sidney are lower than their existing building rate. There’s no doubt that higher interest rates and construction cost escalation has soured the case for development, so current construction rates may be difficult to maintain. Nevertheless it seems odd for the province to release a housing target that’s less than what municipalities are already doing. That’s essentially provincial permission to let off the housing gas.
These targets are only a provincial backstop to the many other reforms, and we don’t yet know if the province will even follow through with any consequences when the likes of Oak Bay and Saanich inevitably fail to hit their targets. However if CMHC’s estimate of the housing shortage is to be believed, all the targets are well below actual needs. Scaling CMHC’s estimate of the housing shortage in BC into local municipalities we get the following local-level estimates of the need, which are some two to four times the provincial targets.
If you recall, the CMHC estimate was based on restoring 2004 levels of affordability by 2030. Those estimates were obviously never realistic as targets, since even in a YIMBY utopia scaling up the construction industry that quickly isn’t physically possible.
The point here is to put both current construction levels and provincial aspirations into perspective. If you’re house hunting now and hoping the reforms will drive down prices in the short term, you’re going to be disappointed. If you’re worried that a flood of new housing is going to crash the value of your townhouse to 2004 levels, you can sleep easy too. At best, these are long term fixes, meant to stop prices and rents from spiraling, and letting incomes bring back some affordability. Market sentiment, interest rates, unemployment, and migration patterns will dictate nearly all of our short term price movements.
Also the weekly numbers
| July 2024 |
July
2023
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Sales | 134 | 595 | |||
| New Listings | 338 | 1125 | |||
| Active Listings | 3395 | 2419 | |||
| Sales to New Listings | 40% | 53% | |||
| Sales YoY Change | -9% | +17% | |||
| New Lists YoY Change | +20% | +2% | |||
| Inventory YoY Change | +45% | +12% | |||
| Months of Inventory | 4.1 | ||||
Sales are lagging to start, but I suspect we’ll roughly match the year ago numbers in July or exceed them. In fact we better, because we have two more business days this July than last, which means it would take a significant decline in the sales rate to end with anything other than a year over year increase in activity. New lists remain about a fifth higher than this time last year.
Inventory may be past peak, though it’s a little early to call it for sure. At 3395 listings on the market, we are 77 below the recent peak on June 24th. A June peak of inventory would be a normal seasonal pattern, though we usually don’t see a big decline until October. Expect inventory to remain pretty stable throughout the summer.
Wondering about realtors who handle land assembly sales – are there some who are considered the best to use?
“Rockland and Fairfield homes seem to have lost some appeal the last few years with prices that seem somewhat weak.”
If correct, maybe that’s because they are upper middle class islands in a sea of poor policy decisions, social decay and a declining downtown managed by a dysfunctional City of Victoria government.
Brief update since I’m out of town. https://househuntvictoria.ca/2024/07/15/july-15-market-update-2/
Starting to see some losses on downtown condos that were previously purchased during the pandemic. That’s not good. over a thousand downtown condos were bought during covid. They aren’t getting slaughtered but most are selling below assessment a few close to 10 percent below assessment. Close to 8 months of inventory for downtown condos.
But on the up side, people are still looking for easy fixer uppers. Flooring, cabinets, etc. Anything that can come out of a box from IKEA.
But enough about Victoria. How’s Langford and Colwood doing?
275 houses for sale, around 4.5 months of inventory with the typical home selling close to 1.1 million. That will buy a 2,400 square feet, 2010 built house on a 6,000 square feet lot with four bedrooms and three bathrooms. That’s the typical middle income Canadian home. All one needs is a $500,000 down payment and a $3,500 a month payment.
If we take Oak Bay out. Why? Because I want to. The typical home is the Victoria Core is $1,220,000. That will buy you a 2,050 square feet, 1968 built home on a 7,200 square feet lot that needs some updating. A little less of the Canadian dream than the Westshore home but not bad.
And in Nanaimo?
$810,000 buys a 1986 built home with 2,020 square feet on a 7,800 square feet lot.
Duncan is the same.
$810,000 buys a 1990 built home of around 2,100 square feet on a 10,000 square feet lot.
And now for Oak Bay
$1,650,000 buys a 1946 built home of some 2,100 square feet on a 7,500 square feet lot.
https://youtu.be/6b0ftfKFEJg?si=f_ufPz1UP8jMw3Si
…And I’m sure they are licking their wounds. Two ways in and out. Metchosin Rd and Veterans. Two of the most congested arteries in the Westshore. Everyone knows the Leigh Rd on ramp is the fastest way to head south into town.
At that price, knock it down and build new. A new 4,000 square foot home on Oak Shade lane sold for 3.4 million.
Why piss around with a 1950’s floor plan layout. It’s a middle income design in an upper middle income neighborhood. Even Tammy Faye Baker’s makeup couldn’t hide that.
I think more like 400k, you aren’t leaving that kitchen and ensuite as is in terms of walls and once you start moving walls things get very expensive quickly. Looking at VicMaps the home only has a 0.5” water service so right away that needs to be updated triggering the $10k worth of soil sample testing. Given it is a busier road COV will want traffic control there for a day during the drilling so make it 12k. $400k sounds like a lot but it goes quickly.
Rockland and Fairfield homes seem to have lost some appeal the last few years with prices that seem somewhat weak.
When the loans officer includes potential rental income added to your personal income for total income you are required to sign an “assignment of rents document” It doesn’t mean the suit must be rented. The potential rental income is there. They don’t care if its rented or not.
Throw 300k at it and you would have a nice updated home with a 8000sqft lot in Rockland for 1.4 if everything goes well, lmao people were paying the same for a new house in royal bay on 3000sqft lots.
BC Assessment has the data too. When it comes to condos it’s just a matter of how many tax notices were sent to different addresses.
As for single family homes in the core, of the last 1,375 sales, 550 had suites in them. That’s about 42%. A little higher in the Westshore at 45% Saanich Peninsula is lower at 33%
That’s not a very scientific way but it should be fairly close. How many are rented? I have no idea. But it is a lot of basement suites given the number of detached homes in the Greater Victoria area.
That makes the secondary market for rentals quite large relative to PBRs.
I’m voting Poilievre… Only because he is less fucked up than JT.
That Trudeau frequents.
Which is innately ridiculous, since the land registry could get us that up to the day, but BC doesn’t actually release anything interesting out of their land title data, rather hoarding it to sell to real estate companies.
Unfortunately we don’t have a lot of data on the holdings of mom & pop investors. I do wonder how much outflow of properties we’ll see from the secondary market which will blunt the positive rental supply from more purpose built units being built.
Not necessarily a bad thing, secondary rental market is the least secure, so maybe it’s a good thing to transition the rental stock to people that aim to operate them as rentals long term, but does show how fluid the borders are between rental and ownership supply. Can certainly help bring more inventory on to the resale market.
This is also why I’m not bothered by stats on how many investors are buying new build condos (in the past). Investors hold for some amount of time, but the condos will be around for decades. They’re very likely to be owner-occupied at some point.
809 St. Charles, started at 1.36 listed as pending at 1.1. Go grab grab the deals if you want them….
VicRe, translation: you have daily savings because some of your expenses are now covered in-house?
VicREanlyst
Let’s use the recent sale of the 15 suite apartment building at 2.71 million this month. I haven’t seen the property. 15 suites is not big. It is still in the range of a mom and pop operation. Unlike a REIT that would only start to look at complexes in the 40 unit and higher range. Maybe 50 units. I would estimate the current revenue, expenses, and net at around.
Gross Revenue $173,500
Expenses $56,250
Net Income $117,250
Discount rate 4.3%
The rate is low as there isn’t much value in the improvements so there is less to recapture relative to its remaining economic life. The high income to expense ratio suggests that there is upside to the rents. It’s a really good candidate for a mid term holding property for re-development. They’ll need another 12 million when it comes time to build.
higher expenses can be written off against income, even better if a significant portion of those higher expenses are also related to daily life expenses.
I think the fact of mom and pop’s imputed labour costs not being accounted for has a lot to do with it. When you have to pay for management, you have to be serious about what it’s costing you. Thus mom and pop don’t get weeded out despite their inefficiency.
I would agree with you VicREanalyst the efficacy of management is typically lower for a mom and pop operation. Like comparing a corner grocery store to a supermarket.
Frank, a brothel would have a higher income and expenses. It would also have a substantially higher discount rate to compensate for the higher risk. You should not be paying very much for a brothel even with the higher income. In general most service industries sell at a high discount rate. Might I suggest one to three years net income.
These are new changes and likely people haven’t had time to digest yet. Also problematic tenants will likely target mom and pop landlords much more than a unit ran by proline.
VicREanalyst, determining an appropriate discount rate might not be as hard as one thinks. There are sales of multi-family homes that sell with a 2 to 4 percent discount rate. That puts the risk of a suite quite low at or about the rate of inflation. If the risk was higher then the discount rate would also be much higher.
Is this a joke or something? Who is the nutcase who writes this blog?
Of course the Liberals are not proposing a “home equity tax”, in fact JT said publicly not long ago that he doesn’t think house prices should go down because people depend on them for funding their retirement. Which I disagree with. And for the record, I don’t agree with a “home equity tax” because it would encourage homeowners to stay in debt. I do think property taxes should be higher with a corresponding drop in income taxes.
Sounds like a brothel.
But the issue is that now people will need factor in additional risks associated with long term tenants. So what was 2500 a month isn’t 2500 a month anymore as the rental income would need to be discounted. I personally run a different type of rental business with my properties now (still couple grandfathered tenants remaining but will turn those over once they vacate) where I offer a more tailored product that targets a particular group.
How much do you charge for a two-bedroom rental?
I don’t see the need for two months compensation. It’s a tricky dance for a tenant to move between tenancies. If you voluntarily chose to end a tenancy then you would likely pay for an empty rental for a month or part of a month, but that’s your choice. My last tenancy, when I lived in Vancouver ,I had the suite empty half way through the month to clean the place. The landlord asked if the new tenant could move in early. I agreed and the new tenant lived on my dime for two weeks.
One month is fine if it’s involuntary.
How did you get 30k a year?
Home Equity Tax? I have read some of Paul Kershaws think tank suggestions. He is way out there. I don’t think it would work and it would be even more difficult to implement as home owners need the equity to buy their next home.
But never let the facts get in the way of a good story. How I miss Rex Murphy.
They may chose not to rent out their basement suite if they don’t need the cash. But $30,000 a year buys a lot of blue rinse hair dye.
What other choices do people have if they require the income to stay solvent? I agree that Landlords who don’t need the money will for sure think twice before renting out their place.
I don’t see your logic of why owners will take their suites off the market. They will just adapt to the changes.
There is also the possibility that more owners will chose to sell rather than re rent when the suites become vacant. At the moment 156 pre-owned condos in Victoria’s core are being sold as immediate occupancy as opposed to 46 subject to tenancy. Sounds like a nothing burger to me.
Liberals proposed home equity tax… interesting discussion https://torontorealtyblog.com/blog/monday-morning-quarterback-the-ludicrous-home-equity-tax/
From BC Financial Services Authority bulletin today…further tenancy regulations in the pipeline, I am guessing two months’ compensation soon instead of one month given the four months’ notice. As more and more regulations are piled on I can see more landlords taking their suites of the market
“Changes set to come into effect through future regulations include:
Prohibiting conversion of rental units to specific non-residential uses, such as short-term rental accommodation or storage; Prescribing increased amounts of compensation for evicting long-term tenants for landlord use; Clarifying the criteria by which a landlord can legally end a tenancy for a problematic tenant; and Increasing administrative penalties for contraventions of the Residential Tenancy Act.”
Interesting sale of a 15 suite apartment building in Victoria across from Jubillee Hospital at 2.71 million. Interesting because I consider it to be land value at $234 per square foot for future Urban Residential development that will allow a 2:1 ratio. Nice to see something sell.
If parents dont care enough about their own kids and let them live on pandora then why the hell do the rest of us have to foot the bill for all the implications that come with it? Gtfo
Lots of renters voted for Trudeau last time, despite a platform destined to make life worse for them.
I’m sorry to hear that Barrister, and I wish the best for your family member.
As you’ve pointed out, addiction is a profound, complex and neurological problem. Hopefully addicts can receive the required therapies that they need .
Barrister I agree, Patriotz comment about kids in chains was in poor taste even though it was (hopefully) made in a sarcastic manner. But at the very least it was an attempt to shut down a discussion of a grave social problem by the use of deflection.
I may not agree with VicREanalyst’s proposal but at least it wasn’t simply regurgitation of talking points.
Mt. Tolmie, neither do I. Go back and read my post again.
You said that renters are more likely to vote for a government that will make things worse. I don’t agree with that. As Patriotz said home owners out number renters when it comes to which party is in power. During the last decade most of those renters became home owners. And that means home owners have elected JT five times.
So I disagree with your claim that renters are to blame. I don’t even know how you came to that assessment as no one knows at the ballot box if you’re a renter or a home owner.
Too soon to backslide on the vacation rentals. From what I am seeing it is having an effect in creating more housing for home owners, not just more downtown condos that are at near record levels of active listings but detached homes in single family neighborhoods.
The slow down in condominium construction is worldwide not a result of local restrictions on vacation rentals. My feelings are that if we don’t moderate the cost of home ownership we will face a more harsh consequence later with people leaving the city for more family affordable provinces.
Home prices are always quick to increase but barring a black swan event take a much longer time to come down.
From AirBnb this morning
“Hi Marko,
Victoria City Council will discuss potential changes to the short-term rental (STR) regulations in the City. We anticipate Council considering changing the limits on hosting from four visits per year to a cap of 180 nights per year instead. This change would support increased tourism and provide much needed additional income to hosts in one of Canada’s most expensive cities. A 180 night cap is also in line with many other cities, including Toronto, and mirrors the occupancy threshold in BC’s Vacancy Tax. It’s crucial that the Mayor and Council hear from you on how this would impact you, your family and your community in Victoria.”
I’m not saying they changed how they vote.
Here’s an idea that has been floated to increased Canadians productivity.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/video/news/work-more-not-less-could-canada-follow-greece-s-6-day-workweek/vi-BB1pnA3d?ocid=socialshare&cvid=3145c8aebf29450e82e198b2a12a5e1d&ei=23
Awhile back, I mentioned that I use to track moving companies to find out what is happening in the real estate market. I guess I wasn’t the only one.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/video/news/vancouver-ranked-impossibly-unaffordable/vi-BB1opiBt?ocid=socialshare
Whatever- That wasn’t a boyfriend, that was a predator.
Who’s not building?
Changed my mind. I’ll let Barristers comment say it all. Not worth the ink. Somethings are too personnel for this blog.
Mike K over at VV is pretty much done with his discussion forum too.
They are sitting in their armchair because it makes absolutely no financial sense to build anything at this time. Most have very large nest eggs and can afford to wait it out.
I am afraid that serious drug addition is sadly a topic close to my own family. Comments like I dont favour you kids in chains reflect an absolute ignorance of the problem at best and an evil intent at worst.
Start with a very simple question, what do the drugs actually do to a person that makes them a drug addict.
Please dont do the trendy deflection as to the reasons people might try or do drugs in the first place, the reason why they started is no longer material. Also do not confuse the neurological effects of the body associated with drug withdrawal which is a separate mechanism from addiction itself.
The simply and tragic answer is that the drugs create serious brain damage and it is the brain damage that causes the addictive behavior. The brain damage is both profound, complex and deep seated. Before forming an opinion read the neuro-science behind addition instead of the political science. We are really bad at fixing brain damage of this type and magnitude. For most addicts forced withdrawal from drugs is their last best hope. (there is an exceptional small groups of addicts that do manage to withdraw voluntarily on their own, they are the exception rather than the rule.)
Creating safe, medically run hospitals, is virtually the last best hope for seriously addicted people. Allowing the brain time to recover is about their only hope. Many will never recover and the damage is permanent.
These are all someone’s children and we have totally failed to help and protect them. ( I know that all the homeless are not drug addicts but the vast majority are so lets deal with the vast majority and then we can find solutions for the small remainder.)
Nor is this a change in the laws rather it requires a realistic interpretation of the facts. The law for committal has always been that you are a danger to others or yourself. How in Gods name does any judge conclude that a person who has overdosed twice in one day and on other multiple occasions is not a danger to themselves.
Nope. I’m neutral and want to hear possible solutions. Personally, I don’t favor your kids in chains idea.
I was asking you, since you seemed to be advocating some sort of coercion.
Patriotz, I don’t know. Maybe you should ask them?
Mt. Tolmie , what changed renters from voting for a government that makes things worse when it is home owners that have elected JT five times? During the last decade a lot of those renters became home owners.
They’re supposed to keep the kids in chains or something?
What change are you referring to?
Mt. Tolmie, most home owners start out as renters. So what changed them?
Or did they change given that JT has won five elections.
Dysfunctional family background is a factor in homelessness, but not the only one and is not a factor in some cases.
And just like responsible adult children would not let their parents with dementia live like they do? What about the parent with dementia who tells their family they don’t need help because they think their family wants to send them to a home against their will? Well, if they have capacity they can do just this.
I don’t think you’ve experienced what it is like to have a non-cooperative mentally ill, brain injured or addicted adult in your life. If they tell you they don’t want help you will not be able to help them in Canada. Your adult daughter with ex. anorexia can starve to death in front of your eyes. You call the crisis line or the police and they’ll tell you that unless she wants help there is nothing they can do unless they lose capacity. There is a lady like this in our neighborhood – literally a walking skeleton.
You talk to the physician and find out that the test for capacity to refuse help is a very low bar to pass and the health care system does not want to deal with a non-cooperative patient. If your loved one can understand the reasonably foreseeable consequences of a denial of care or services then they have capacity to refuse it even if it leads to intense suffering and a horrible death and a reasonable person would believe no sane person would make this choice.. Doesn’t matter if the result is that they live on the streets or in hoarder conditions without the ability to shower.
The test needs to change imo. In other countries the test is different and there is a reason why families, law enforcement and health care professionals can be more effective in intervening in these cases. In other countries the medical profession does not elevate self-determination to the enshrinement to the right to engage in treatable self-harm and self-neglect for those with severe mental issues affecting their capacity to make such choices.
Yet renters are more likely to vote for a government that will make the problem worse.
People be like that sometimes.
Parents are responsible for their children’s actions up to a certain age. VicREanalyst is putting forward a modest proposal to expand that limitation as opposed to Totoro’s solution to institutionalize them at tax payer’s expense.
Perhaps there is a middle ground such as a Three Strikes and You’re Out Law?
It’s a primary reason, go take a look at the pic of his dad on his FB photo.
Ya and responsible parents would not let him live on Pandora no matter what the circumstance. Parents needs to be held responsible, why should other people foot the bill for your failures, GTFO.
They would not have got full bonuses if benchmarks were not met.
Thursty, we need continued investment in new construction along with a significant investment in businesses such as Research & Development and AI that will lead to an increase in the productivity of Canadian workers. We will need to get the lion’s share of that investment from outside of Canada. Since we wouldn’t be able to rely on the USA, we would likely have to wait until China’s economy rebounds in two to five years.
So I agree with you, in that a Trump presidency would not be best for Canada.
Trump is no friend of Canada , I could c more tariff wars . Our economy better have some steam
It seems that there has been an inflow into bitcoin and gold following the attempt on Trump’s life. Most analyst believe that a Trump government will trigger inflation and people will seek traditional hedges against inflation in safe-haven investments such as gold and real estate.
There is a possibility of a spill over effect in Canada which paradoxically could bring higher home prices and higher interest rates.
I hope Dad is enjoying these hot days. I’m not!
Ya I would be more concerned with Trumps inevitable return to office and negative effect on the Canadian economy . Hurry and bring those interest rates down
That isn’t the problem with the housing crisis. The basic problem is that the majority of voters are homeowners, and perhaps RE investors, and are indifferent or even opposed to effective solutions to improve supply and affordability.
NIMBY
A heinous act causing the senseless death and injury of spectators. My thoughts are with the American people.
Well one thing is for certain, he is winning the election at this point with this event going down.
So, Trump assassination attempt, bullish or bearish for Victoria RE?
But it has made the investment managers very rich. The purpose of a system is what it does.
CPP Investments spends billions of dollars to outperform the market. The problem is, it hasn’t
https://www.thestar.com/business/opinion/cpp-investments-spends-billions-of-dollars-to-outperform-the-market-the-problem-is-it-hasnt/article_6d7cea0a-3d2f-11ef-86a4-57243fe35270.html
So you are saying institutionalize them. Take them off the streets and warehouse them in Psychiatric Hospitals as we did years ago.
https://youtu.be/YNbVdOwt4BU?si=95D9yIpDxiwV4B15
Shitty parenting not the only reason people land in the streets.
I personally know of normal functioning families who have done everything they could think of to help an addicted or mentally impaired child or adult. It is super traumatic.
People with brain injuries or mental health issues may have impulse control issues and high rates of addiction which probably started with self medication.
Parents, police and health care workers can do nothing with a brain injured or addicted person who is non cooperative but has capacity to refuse help – which is a really low bar.
In my view we need to change the test for refusing help. If you are living on the street and creating a criminal nuisance for others or a safety risk to self I’d be in favour of mandatory service provision in a non-voluntary setting with appropriate oversight and appeals. We’ve moved personal autonomy to a nonsensical place.
Why is he on pandora?
We all know the problem Totoro. We pay a lot of money to people to tell us about the problem just as we do with the housing crisis. They’ve made a career on re-iterating the problem over and over again.
So what do you see as a solution?
I am surprised with the resiliency of manufactured home prices on First Nation’s lands. I thought they would plummet in price as one of the parks has ordered the removal of 38 homes at the owners’ expense to provide more indigenous housing. Although it is surrounded by a lot of vacant land that could be used instead.
I spoke with a tax accountant about them and he thought they might be okay to buy if you rented them. If the band ordered its removal then you might be able to wright it off as a business loss. You’re unlikely to wright it off as a capital gains loss if it is a residence.
Things that make you go hmmmmm.
Jump to conclusions much?
My understanding is he has a significant brain injury which often causes intense stress, pain and suffering to the individual and their family – similar to dealing with dementia/Alzheimers except the person can live much longer.
Our medical system does a really shitty job of dealing with TBI and addiction imo. Like attributing capacity to refuse care and letting them roam the streets causing harm to self and others despite the best efforts of family members who eventually have to internalize the serenity prayer and let go or go crazy from the stress. Our test for capacity needs to be reformed.
So this is the guy causing issues on pandora? City needs to invoice the parents for shitty parenting.
https://www.facebook.com/hayden.hamlyn?mibextid=ZbWKwL
That just makes an opportunity to buy a condo along Pandora at a lower price than the surrounding properties. Where else in the city can you buy a newer 1,200 square feet two-bedroom condo for under 700 a square foot?
There could be a big upside to property values if you believe that the homeless problem is only temporary in Victoria.
One secret to making money in real estate is to capitalize on someone else’s misery.
Thanks for posting the link! I had heard about the pool closure but wasn’t aware of this petition. I have signed it and donated to boost its visibility. Maybe post it on the /uvic subreddit as well?
[sigh]
Victoria just keeps getting better and better and better.
Responders won’t go to 900-block of Pandora without police, after paramedic kicked in the face
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/responders-wont-go-to-900-block-of-pandora-without-police-after-incident-where-paramedic-hurt-9213256
Well, it’s only 1.4, so probably nobody cares (…)
In my experience UVIC has no concern for the community and is a poor corporate citizen that only cares about revenue, now they are scrambling because of the foreign student cap. First they ran the arena and outdoor pool into the ground and now the indoor pool. My guess is UVIC is hoping the comunity steps up and finds money to fix their pool, if they think other pools in the area can take over their existing programs that use the pool they are mistaken.
Been lurking for awhile!
For citizens concerned about the liveability of our city and EXISTING infrastructure for community, UVIC has unilaterally decided to close their swimming pool. The department that oversees this harkens similarities to the CoV bureaucracy.
Please take some time to take a look at the change.org petition to save the pool. Thanks.
https://www.change.org/p/prevent-the-closure-of-our-community-mckinnon-swimming-pool
I’ve seen worse from licensed Realtors (TM).
Also, anyone know of any banks or insurance companies that bundle properties, vehicles, and other assets at a discount?
Just leveraged to purchase another SFD to make it 3 now but with suites in all of them. It seems like the most desirable and rentable option in the market long term is a house and this website pretty much convinced me of that (the content not the comments). Even if given the option of a new 500SF condo and an older 900SF suite with a fenced yard and some space for a pet the desirable one is obviously the yard and outdoor space that isn’t factored into the perSF monthly rent. The circumstances of our family also contributed to the decision but now holding all of them for a period of time and selling for an early retirement seems like the best option. And before anyone decides to criticize owning 3 houses, yes I get it I’m lucky, a jerk, the problem, blah blah
We’re number one in Canada!!!!!!
The biggest post pandemic increase for two-bedroom rentals at 53.4 percent since April 2021.
The average rent for a two-bedroom in May 2024 was 2,844 per month
But one-bedroom increases for Victoria didn’t make it into the top ten list at under 30.8 percent.
The average rent in May 2024 was $2,168 per month
-According to Rentals.ca data
The lowest one-bedroom increase was good old Fort MacMurray at 17.2 percent
Must be the difference between oil and suntan oil
I have seen listings that state that the staging has been added digitally but beyond that, none.
Looks like BC Housing executives gets paid pretty shitty, the CEO is paid similar to a mid-level person on my deal team so ya, you get what you pay for at that place. That explains the corruption there, too little pay for the power granted.
https://www.bchousing.org/sites/default/files/media/documents/Executive-Compensation-Disclosure-2022-2023.pdf
If it did, it would have been a private sale. It sold back in 2015 for close to $10,000,000.
Anyone can do a title search to find out. I use to spend days in the Land Registries in Toronto and Winnipeg searching commercial and industrial sales. BC was so much easier with the Torrens land transfer system.
Didn’t that sell more recently too?
The old Customs House was bought for $12,100,000 in 2014 that’s a 26,910 square feet lot.
In that particular circumstance no, but I don’t know what else this person does…. typically in government it is only the low level positions that are grossly overpaid while higher level jobs are grossly underpaid.
I think typically the government will just hire an appraiser (or several) and start the negotiations from there, so someone like “whatever” would have advised them that $9.6M is a fair price. LoL given the way “whatever” is on the defense and trying to justify the price via his posts I wouldn’t be surprised if it was him LMAO.
Okay, but do you really need a person then at over 200k/year if the government is willing to pay millions over market value?
It’s like I am sure a BC Housing executive is “well qualified” if he or she is making over 200k/year to oversee the owner builder exam, but the thing they are overseeing is complete non-sense.
908 Pandora sold in 2015. Relisted in 2021 at $16,500,000 as a 25,526 square feet prime development site.
They may have been ordered to acquire a piece of land of x size in x area by x date by the higher ups in the City. If that is the case then it’s more of a failure on the City rather than those individuals. I mean I suppose if those people actually get paid a bonus on the acquisition price versus assessment they may have negotiated a littler harder but not sure how much better they would have done if there were no other lots of sale in a one block radius and they have to buy something in a one block radius right away.
I have.
I have never seen an MLS posting that says the images are photoshopped but more than 50% of the listings have photoshopped images.
What do they actually do? Would the COV cease to properly function without a “Inclusive Internship PrgmCnslt.”
Results – > https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/city-of-victoria-buys-pandora-land-for-9595m-has-housing-plan-4681255
worth around $4 million at the time of purchase in my opinion, certainly not over $5.
Professional photos start at $150 so not sure if you can blame the poor presentation purely on lack of a full service realtor.
Assuming these people can do their job in a semi competent manner this is what I think of their comp. in comparison to other government jobs
For the two at ~$140k:
This guy seems overpaid given his experience and credentials https://www.linkedin.com/in/ross-carroll-055a9651/?originalSubdomain=ca
This gal seems to be ok, maybe ~5k above market :https://www.linkedin.com/in/catherine-du-bois-4a574325a/?originalSubdomain=ca
The director guy seems fairly paid given his experience and credentials: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-rantucci-ll-b-75981b28/?originalSubdomain=ca
Professional pictures make a difference as the listing is an advertisement to encourage a prospective purchaser to make further enquiries about the property. The pictures of course accentuate the positive features of the home. One thing I disagree with are pictures that have been altered. Most agents are diligent and stipulate in their listings that the pictures have been altered or enhanced.
New build 4 plex sprinkler system.
Gotta love that they didn’t even bother to wipe the dirt off their smartphone lens before snapping those. Feels like an AI review tool would help the DIYers to at least get the basics right and provide some feedback on listing price.
I think any increase in taxes on land should be matched with a 1:1 decrease in taxes on income.
I think I watched the same video. Pretty neat.
This is a prime reason that people should use a realtor instead of mere listing: https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/27161448/3116-steele-st-victoria-burnside#view=neighbourhood
Not really sure how they can do that accurately….
Well as long as they don’t touch home equity the rest is not a big deal . It is what it is
Canada is not what it used to be in terms of housing costs, access to healthcare, and visible homelessness/untreated mental health and addictions.
If you have money you can avoid or manage housing and social disorder issues for the most part. You can get access to private healthcare sometimes, but that doesn’t insulate you from excessive wait times for specialists or lack of really good medical care.
I don’t think most Canadians even understand what it can be like to get excellent medical care because they have never experienced it. There are places in the world where you walk in and have full testing and examinations in the am and get your results and a review with an English-speaking American-trained doctor/specialist in the afternoon. If you need follow-up care or surgery it can be scheduled for next day.
If you don’t have money, well, the cost of housing makes it way harder to climb the financial security hill if you don’t have parents with money to help – or you are a new immigrant.
New build or retrofit?
Frank, I don’t know if Victoria or the Fire Department has a requirement for sprinklers in four units. I recall there is one based on the number of stories such as more than three stories. I suppose in a building that is only two stories, you would still be able to chuck a baby out of a window and have them survive at least most of the time.
By the way I did speak with a retired battalion fire chief about only having one fire stairwell. His reply was it depends on the distance the furthest unit is from the stairway.
What does a sprinkler system in a 4 plex cost? $50,000? Plus permits.
First one is up -> https://youtu.be/avm7HvZUCMo?feature=shared&t=371
I’ve been invited to a few bigger platforms coming up shortly, but not changing any opinions whatsoever. Facing a new argument every day. Part of the problem is people are realizing Canada isn’t what it use to be (and more and more Croatians living in Canada are returning to Croatia) so I’ll get counter arguments along the lines of “Why do we need the Canadian models that drove the people into homelessness by leaving real estate to large rental corporations? What a disaster”
then I am caught off guard trying to explain that homelessness in Canada is not cause by property taxes.
One counter argument people have that I am warming up to is “what is the point, government will just waste the additional revenue anyway,” and given how fat and useless municipalities have become in Canada they do make a point. Just some of the salaries from the 2023 COV budget
Mgr – Real Estate $138,052.35
Mgr – Real Estate $140,822.47
Mgr – Real Estate $140,822.47
Dir of Strategic Real Estate $203,127.98
and then the COV pays $10 mill for a property worth $4 million on Pandora, lol.
not to mention a ton of other positions I am like what on earth does this person actually do
Inclusive Internship PrgmCnslt – $113,950.42
Mgr, Intergov & Media Relat – $140,822.43
Internal Comm & Engage Speclst – $115,112.37
like how is this person making more than a nurse?
I feel like you could let go of 50+ people at COV and nothing would change in my day to day life. Water would still arrive and in my unit and sewage would still function.
and then they ban airbnb so COV loses $2 million in revenue from licensing, but they kept the short term rental department 🙂
more owner builder non-sense
“I’m in xxxxxxxx area C 100% rural. No permits, or inspections available (Just septic & electrical), yet I need to pass this owner builder test. Cash grab with the threat of large fines if I don’t comply from BC Housing.
Thank you for helping me “comply.”
What’s happening in China does have an affect on hi-rise construction in Canada. Money is not as available as it once was and China would like the money focused in China to help its real estate market not spent in foreign markets.
The first four minutes of this video is what is happening in Australia, but it applies to Canada as well. But you won’t hear this on Canadian news.
https://youtu.be/zazHpgwhnWE?si=j2UhRE7zt4rKeTL1
How bad is China’s real estate problem
https://youtube.com/shorts/t97JGvuHQlU?si=3stgwWlZpsJZ1Oel
Did you tell them you appear on Croatian podcasts? 🙂
Ha, tell your sellers that Chinese buyers are busy liquidating their RE holdings local and abroad to keep their businesses afloat back in China. Colleagues have told me that it is a bloodbath in Chinese RE right now even in the tier one cities like Beijing and Shanghai where 20% declines from peak are becoming common, some products in smaller cities have corrections exceeding 70%.
They need the global reach of an international brokerage.
Why didn’t they just re-list with you with full service?
we all have our day jobs for a reason and most of us shouldn’t quit them thinking we are experts at something else 😉
Glad I am not the only one calling out the non-sense 🙂
Recently had a seller (that was receiving showings on the property) cancel the mere posting listing and re-list with a full service agent for a substantial amount less. Don’t understand the logic in why you just wouldn’t keep the mere posting and lower the price, but on the positive with that type of consumer behavior I don’t think the real estate industry is going anywhere nor can I see downward price pressure on commissions in my lifetime. Even if you give sellers the option (like mere postings) they seem to revert to the mean of full service.
Then they follow it up by complaining about the cost of real estate fees.
Sample of daily owner-builder emails….yup, no issue with bureaucracy 🙂 Someone loses house in fire has to memorize crap regarding gas meters so they can write an exam to rebuild a house where no natural gas service exists. Makes sense.
“I lost my home in XXXXXX bc in the bush creek fires in August 2023.
The bids to rebuild my 3 bedroom 1 bathroom 900 sq foot 1 level home were 500 k, 650k, 700, and 840 k. Because i was underinsured i am looking to get my owner builder authorization to do it myself. Any help you can give me would be appreciated.
On another subject, I just watched your video from feb. 2024. You are correct in how the goverment is not making it easy in any way to build a home. I had a meeting with the XXXXX which is where we would go to get our building permits. You need to jump through hoops to get anything done. Considering I had a home and paid taxes on it for years and now its like that doesnt matter and you need to start from square one. Unfortunately it’s all lip service from our goverment.”
Just spoke to my property manager up Island, her husband and father-in-law are developers and she mentioned that Nanaimo is requiring sprinkler systems in 4 plexes. Anyone heard the same for Victoria?
Lots happening in City of Vancouver, e.g. Jericho and Shaughnessy lands. Also that restored reserve land near the Burrard Bridge, not crown land exactly but same genre. Similar plans going on in Ottawa.
Of course the fact that the Crown owns vast expenses of land where nobody lives or wants to live is not relevant to the issue.
You have to build more housing in Saanich for the retirees to move to if you’re going to free up housing elsewhere. In fact that’s all you have to do, moving services is just a side issue. It’s always about more housing really.
That’s a 30 min drive. I don’t think people would move just to not drive for 30 mins and it would be a huge pain for everyone else that wants to live in Vic, which is most people. Also people with families use the cancer clinic too.
Ok…. but you are not answering the question, it was formerly a gravel pit without much around it, so who was the anchor tenant when the development first started?
See original comments regarding building housing in undeveloped areas such as on crown land.
What was the “anchor tenant” when the royal bay development first started?
Do you mean de-centralize?
To build in areas outside of core is risky in areas without banking, schools, hospitals etc. Just like a shopping mall, you need an anchor tenant to draw customers.
For example, you could move the cancer clinic and other health services for the elderly out of the city to Saanich Pen Hospital, that could encourage retirees to relocate out of the city. Thereby freeing up existing housing in the city that is more suitable for families.
Are they also implementing the projects?
I feel this is underexplored as well.
Oi vey!
Dumb but related question from a foreigner: given that ~90% of Canadian land is Crown land, what are the prospects of opening up some of it for housing? Sure, there’s not a lot near existing urban populations, but presumably something is better than nothing..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_law_of_oligarchy
and while the number of housing units hasn’t grown on bases the bureaucracy sure has. The team overseeing infrastructure spending at the Esquimalt base is now 130+ people. They even felt the need to open a brand new regional office last year and rented top notch office space downtown (according to an insider everything was functioning 100% without before someone determined a need for a “regional office.”)
There are developers with teams of 5 people handling more dollar $ every year.
Be a lot easier to start with Government House or Ross Bay cemetery.
With Ross Bay cemetery you won’t have complaints from the residents and have a location that people would die for.
It would help if they got out of the way and let the market build and function, but they can’t even do that so not only can they not build and operate government housing they restrict the market as well.
Will crosspost one thing that drives me mad but few people seem to care about. Every party at the federal level keeps promising they will find unused federal land and build housing on it.
But we have a prime example of underused federal land, our military bases, and what has the government done? Systematically cut the number of homes for service members in half over the last 30 years. And that’s while there’s an acute shortage of housing (4500 service members on the waitlist for housing apparently) and they are getting dragged over the coals by our allies for not hitting their 2% of GDP spending target. Would be trivial to go on a building spree and fix this problem in two years if they wanted to.
But zero desire or ability to do this. In fact if you read those CFHA reports, here is how they talk about demolishing housing. “Demolitions contribute to the consolidation of housing sites and improve privacy, parking, landscaping, security and access issues”. “Demolitions contribute to the reduction of GHG emissions”. They’ve totally lost the plot.
Hence why we need a functioning market housing system for the vast majority of people. I just have zero confidence the government can build and operate housing for a big chunk of society when they are currently failing to do so for even the simplest use-cases.
That’s fair, I have access to readily consolidated research already but most people here probably don’t so I can see how links could be helpful.
Yes though I’ve been more active on twitter for a couple years already. Just more suitable for the advocacy side. Several reasons I won’t get into that have cut into total time I have available to put into housing things
Sorry to folks who have asked questions here that I haven’t answered. Feel free to shoot me a quick email if you have a burning question.
I think the main thing is that there’s nothing much happening in the market, and if my forecast is right then nothing much will continue to happen for a couple/few years more.
If you want to spend the time going through stats can, econ sites etc and figuring out household setups, income etc feel free. Its much easier for someone to consolidate them for me. You could say a lot of the same things with Leo’s site but i find all the links and data he compiles very valuable rather than spending the countless hours he has, and trying to ‘google’ all that info myself.
Lmao mike drop to what? Again google vs pratical reality. Bought the land in 88 disposed the stake in 1992, all the glass towers were constructed after. Go around and ask people in the industry who runs concord….
And that would be a mic drop!
Li Ka-shing was in fact the founder and controlling owner of Concord Pacific. Not exactly nothing to do with it. In 1992 Li sold a controlling interest to the Hui family, which like Li’s is also Hong Kong based. The current head of Concord, Terry Hui, is a personal friend of Li’s son Victor. As the company went private in 2002 the present ownership structure is unclear.
https://www.bcbusiness.ca/people/general/terry-hui-the-man-who-built-concord-pacific/
And he has nothing to do with Concord who is the developer of all these towers you are talking about. Concord Pacific is a Canadian company owned by a Canadian that is of asian decent…….
Segment on CBC news about cash for keys nightmares for landlords. Renters are concerned about being evicted so the landlord can charge more. Unfortunately, the bad apples are growing in numbers and small landlords are opting out, selling their properties (ie. SFHs), thereby making rentals more scarce. Meanwhile, condos are sitting vacant, especially in Ontario where over building was prevalent to accommodate the hot airbnb demand. A lot of these condos were deliberately built for short term tenancies for one or two people. They don’t meet the requirements people need for full time accommodations. Without airbnb customers, those condos are almost worthless. It was fun while it lasted.
Li ka shing actually bought the expo lands and sold it. Concord made perhaps one of the biggest land deals recent years in Vancouver buying up the old st paul’s site at the top of Burrard. My firm was bidding on that too but deemed it too risky at that price, seems like the right move in hindsight.
Vicreanalyst , li ka shing did well when he bought the old expo site , not a local lad though
What’s the point of reading posts with a bunch of internet links that anyone can readily google themselves? The real value adds in reading forum posts are insights that you can’t google….
Please enlighten me on who all these offshore developers are? The big ones I can think of that can handle 9 figure plus projects are almost all Canadian (Quadeal, Concert, Westbank, Aquiline, Bosa, Chard, Concord Pacific etc. Onni is the only one that isn’t Canadian but still got a heavy presence locally.)
I suspect everyone has muted everyone to the point that this site may have just become an echo chamber.
Yep that was me , and yes a lot of the largest condo developments in Vancouver has been with offshore developers with offshore money , Vancouvers market is hugely international
Another “swing-and-a-miss”.
It was Thursty that made a reference to offshore money managers, not me.
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2024/07/08/some-housing-targets-are-not-like-the-others/#comment-117353
If you believe offshore money managers are building towers then yes Patrick has a good read.
…..that have zero context to real life. I think before I muted him I noted that garden suites in Saanich were taking a year to approve (based on talking to many people doing such in real life), then he posts a “data-backed” comment that BPs for garden suites were only taking like 4-5 months or something, but doesn’t have real life experience/context to know that a garden suite in Saanich also requires a DP, not just a BP which stretches it out to a year.
If you don’t work in the real world like some of the posters below yes you would conclude he provides good posts. If you do know anything about how the real world operates what he posts is just complete non-sense.
Don’t know why anyone would consider this forum of importance lol . Although I don’t always agree, I do find Patrick to have a good read on a lot of the gibberish . I read it everyday and enjoy all the lively debate
While i find some of Patrick’s posts irksome, he often posts data-backed comments which have good value and references. I don’t agree with a lot of his views but I think he adds to the comments section and, a long with a few other posters, prevents the comments from becoming an echo chamber. IMO.
I don’t see him commenting. He already has crazy people coming up to him when he goes to the grocery store. Not sure he needs to hear how his projects that are stuck in limbo for years are a result of him and his team at Aryze not knowing what they are doing and incorrectly submitting applications 🙂
There are certainly reasons to believe that SFH prices will go up, but this isn't one of them, because what people want is irrelevant if they don't have the money to buy it.
So difficult to price these properties, the $6.8 sale is impressive. I had client purchase a solid 14 year old waterfront home not too far away for $3 million less just a month or so before the $6.8 one went.
What did you expect from someone who’s only identity in life is to be some kind of savant on an internet forum.
Lol, Luke loves this shit. They are still relatively small though in the grand scheme of things.
I know builders and developers that have read HHV, concluded the comments section is complete garbage for the most part and opted not to participate or continue reading. Like Luke from Aryze is going to waste his time reading the non-sense comments section on here, let’s get real.
Even Leo barely comments anymore and has moved to a different platform.
Lately, lol? I muted him a very long time ago. Out of all the different housing topic platforms I participate in online in three different languages in multiple countries I have to say his comments have to be the worst I’ve ever seen. I think Croats calling me the next Tito online when I debate why we need vacancy tax in Croatia have more critical thinking skills.
and the fact that a lot of people, possibly the majority, have similar takes along Patrick’s to our housing crisis re-forces to me that there is no hope in terms of it every being solved and in my opinion this is important to understand (that housing crisis is unlikely to ever be solved) so you can position yourself according and do the best for yourself and your family.
We are building <10% SFH, yet 78% want SFH, especially young people. That tells me that SFH prices are headed up, because only <10% are going to get what they want. I’d advise anyone sitting on the fence to buy SFH if possible. Which is the same advice I’ve been giving on HHV since 2018.
SFH prices are +42% since then, but I still predict they’re headed much higher.
Yes, people WANT to buy SFH and they PLAN to buy solo but reality is different – especially in BC. This is like the survey that says people can’t afford a $100 hit to their budget without going bankrupt and then rates skyrocket and bankruptcies are basically back to where they were pre-pandemic. All that to say people are poor at estimating reality. Just ask Marko how many of his clients are single and purcashing single family homes under the age of 35. I doubt very many. Maybe in other Provinces that is the case but i suspect its not like this in BC, and even less like this in Victoria.
Yes, but steak is on offer elsewhere like Alberta and God forbid south of the boarder. Seems like quite a few of our doctors are particularly fond of steak along with a lot of our engineers.
Very few actually offshore my friend :), most actually have a very strong BC presence 😉 P.S. I am really good at negotiating to to have someone buy the right picture to hang at the right place 🙂
Sidekick I’m not too sure if there’s more money to be made with more units . Lots of luxury sfh are being built in that lil stretch of road .
If we are talking about big development companies like in Vancouver , those towers are being built by off shore money managers who couldn’t hang a picture .
We bought for the first time last September. Still feels fresh to us!
Totally agree with you VicREanalyst. Patrick’s takes have been absolutely horrendous lately. As someone who has worked with large developers in town, they absolutely complain about the bureaucracy at the municipal level. He puts down “mom and pop investors”, Who does he think have been providing rental housing because of the bureaucracy at the municipal level. I do agree with him about providing adequate purpose built rentals. He puts down “mom and pop developers”. How does he think a developer becomes a large developer? You have to start somewhere in business. He says large developers don’t have time to complain on HHV. They absolutely do, but most wouldn’t comment on here and say what company they work for. You can tell he has never worked in the business before, but he certainly is quite confident in his takes.
Are there any first time buyers left on this site? Seems the site is mostly real estate whales now.
If wishes were horses… well you know how it goes. This kind of survey about spending plans is useless for predicting what people will actually do. It’s that numbers that matter. Oh and does “solo” mean without parental help?
LMAO you two are the biggest morons on the internet. Someone is hungry and wants steak but can only afford a hotdog, I wonder what they will end up eating….
As Patrick notes, most people want steak, not hotdogs. But hotdogs are the only thing on offer.
I wonder how this will go!
Lots of good news for ongoing house (SFH) demand in a just released survey of Canadian renters
All age groups especially the young are still fanatic about homeownership. For example. “Most of the respondents under 25 want to buy within the next 12 months “
And every age group looking for SFH (77%), only (12%) condo.
SFH demand is highest (and condo demand lowest) in the youngest age groups. What?… so much for the the HHV narrative that young people want multi-units and car-sharing.
And more surprises, 42% plan to buy solo, with one income, this is the most common buyer type, especially under age 35 in the survey .. if true, there goes another HHV narrative that it takes two incomes to afford a home.
“—— The Point2 survey revealed that an overwhelming eight out of 10 Canadian renters would like to buy a single-family home — and a fairly large one at that.
https://www.point2homes.com/news/canada-real-estate/the-new-canadian-homebuyer-is-the-solo-homebuyer.html
It’s waterfront, and I’ve owned it for a while. I also enjoy building/construction, so my costs are (potentially) substantially less than the average person. SFH down the street sold for 6.8 recently, and 3 fancy new SFH builds going in on the other side, so I’m definitely the crappiest place in the area.
House needs work/replacing, so I need to decide if it makes sense to build a fancy SFH (which isn’t really my thing), or go for a triplex/fourplex (have about 6000sq. ft. of floorspace to work with). I haven’t given it much thought yet, but ideally I’d keep one to live in and sell the others. I don’t follow the condo market, so any feedback on the ‘value’ of a 1.5 – 2k square foot condo (PH-certified) would be appreciated.
It sure looks to me like the targets were set to allow the province to call out the laggard municipalities, without placing overly stringent requirements on the other cities that are already building a lot of new supply.
It’s likely much easier politically to chastise the worst actors than it is to set high targets across the board and then have every city fail to reach them.
@totoro:
Somehow I doubt the province has such expectations of cities.
It’s not about forcing developers to build anything; the goal is to get city councils to stop blocking new home construction as they have been doing for years.
While I am increasingly frustrated with the weaknesses of the latest provincial legislation, I think we can all agree that municipalities in BC are the most to blame for the current supply shortage.
And they definitely have control over major impediments to new home construction and affordability such as barriers to new home building permits, failing to update zoning in line with the provincial legislations, front loading fees and other taxes on new home construction, etc etc.
For us
We Have built 4 single family houses with suites in the core, with only tearing down one house and these were all sold to end users.
ADDed 7 legal rental units to existing buildings/houses and spent seven figures on renovations to the other rental units.
There is a bunch of us smaller builders.
We also stoped building SfH 2 years ago.
Which makes them a big builder, and obviously successful in getting approvals. So a “pro” in my books. Somehow they’re not stuck on a problem sidewalk or tree, unable to get an approval like our “we’re so screwed on housing” HHVers.
Sure, but the relevant point is whether more complaints correlates with less starts or more starts. For example, housing starts have risen dramatically over the last five years, as have complaints. So what?
Abstract also builds condos,townhomes,etc.
100’s of units now, but it all started with a SfH here and there.
Buildings are black and white, village walk,sparrow. That’s just to name a few, we are talking hundreds if not thousands of units completed or under construction.
Patrick, “How many units have the mom-n-pop developers posting/complaining on HHV actually built in the last 5 years?” I personally wouldn’t be able to identify anyone matching that description on here. I would imagine anyone having built 15 homes in 5 years does not have time to complain on HHV. Further, 15 homes in 5 years would require substantial financial backing, not exactly what I would call “mom and pop.” Anecdotally, I’m aware of a few smaller builders ( a house every 1-2 years) that likely wish they had stopped about two years ago.
Abstract custom luxury homes vs 100/unit towers?
We can have both, but if I’m choosing one for the housing crisis it’s 100/unit towers. Abstract builds that I’ve seen are gorgeous, luxury builds with multi-million$ price tags. It’s a numbers game, and we need lots of homes.
Odds of an average income Victoria household affording to rent or own a unit in a 100/unit tower are much better than them affording a custom Abtract home.
How many units have the mom-n-pop developers posting/complaining on HHV actually built in the last 5 years? I’m not including the “I have a dream” posts, I’m asking about completed units in the last 5 years. For Victoria in total, there have been 15,000 + units completed in the last 5 years (net, after tear downs).
Has a HHV “developer” posting here completed even 15, which would be 1/1000 of that? If so, great, but let’s hear some numbers!
Also, the intimation that only properly qualified experts and large building companies (coordinating with city planners with similar well-earned credentials certifying their expertise) should build houses is sort of nuts! For large buildings sure but for a four-plex?
I’ve seen enough complaints through Leo’s contacts (e.g. Aryze) to know it ain’t just Marko banging his head against the wall.
Here’s an example of a missing middle for you Sidekick. Think you could build something like this and make a profit?
https://listing.uplist.ca/MikeBoorman-1-1009-Southgate-St
Sidekick, on Beach Drive itself or a bit further in, beach would be a lot for the land but does it pencil in?
So Patrick do you want to see a city full of glass 100/unit towers?
If all the mom & pop developers move aside like you would like to see, that’s all that will get built. they will not touch the low rise/missing middle.
Do you also think a lot of these large developers started out with towers? A lot of them started as mom and pops.
Shit, Mike Miller with abstract painted cars for a living! prior to starting to build sfh’s. it’s a good thing he didn’t move aside, I’m sure he’s good for a few units in COV & Sannich.
He will be the first one to Bitch about the municipal BS.
https://www.vicnews.com/news/greater-victoria-developer-rushes-to-demolish-historic-wall-before-oak-bay-applices-heritage-permit-62498
Would have sold closer to a million just 10 months ago.
Not too bad for 900k with a suite near uvic, throw 100k in for some quick renos and it’s quite livable for a middle class family.
And just like that 3930 Garnett goes for over ask… nevermind that they dropped the price from $1.378M to $850k, it’s a damn fine realtor that can get you $50k more than asking!
And more about REITs and rents.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/boardwalk-real-estate-investment-trust-reit-sam-kolias-1.6944379
10,931 apartments to be exact
https://www.upi.com/Archives/1983/02/04/On-Nov-5-William-Player-and-Leonard-Rosenberg-closed/8952413182800/
Sounds a bit like today?
The housing crisis explained.
https://youtube.com/shorts/8oKDYBIqM1I?si=g0mvah_xxufjxI0b
McNeil bay.
CF owns commercial RE, including many major shopping centres in big cities such as Pacific Centre in Vancouver. They don’t own residential RE and I don’t think they ever did.
House prices and interest rates explained.
https://youtube.com/shorts/2wZdPpkCKHk?si=5PtvvD6RJ33skmT7
They are owned by OTTP….
That’s it. Cadillac Fairview. Marathon was the company Premier Gordon Campbell worked for.
Whatever, are you thinking of Cadillac Fairview?
Your building inspector should be better informed, because both Saanich and Victoria are among the first 14 first participants in the BC digital permit hub, soon to join Langley and North Vancouver and be up and running soon. According to the official gov’t PR, they are “updating the tool for their local requirements and expected to be online this summer”.
“ Saanich and Victoria are among the 12 communities using the B.C. government’s new digital Building Permit Hub.” https://www.cfax1070.com/news/bc-hub-for-building-permits-launched.html
https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2024HOUS0028-000817
I doubt we will have prices coming down in a big way unless rents come down. 99.999999% of the people on this site don’t believe that will ever happen.
So that’s probably exactly what will happen.
When I hear about the increase in supply of one-bedroom condos in Toronto, I wonder what’s happening to the apartment REITs, they have to be taking a beating with the higher interest rates. How many investors have their money in those?
Patriotz will know this answer. Might have been in the early 1990’s???? but a company in Toronto with 11,000 rental units went into receivership. Was it Marathon??
Absolutely. Which is why people saying that their slow permit approvals means we are “royally screwed on housing” are just blowing smoke. If projects are viable, they will get approved and built. Mom-n-pop developers who can’t make it past the approval stage should step aside and let the pros takeover. By “pros”, I am referring to the people that got 4,500 permits approved and builds started in G. Victoria last year. The “wannabe” developers are still going to be on HHV 5 years from now talking about their unsolvable problems with a sidewalk or tree.
Don’t think there’s a housing shortage, more than enough to choose from . Even with inventory normalizing prices are not coming down in a big way , so much for supply and demand
Faster permit approval does not necessarily mean projects will be built faster. They have to be economically viable. This is basic 101 developer stuff. A developer will buy land today and leave it undeveloped until condo prices rise enough to start building.
But with today’s soft condo market and weakening prices that could be several years or more.
“The new government digital building permit hub promises faster permit approvals, and it is live now. https://buildingpermit.gov.bc.ca/welcome”
I actually asked one of the head building inspectors about this on Monday while he was at one of our projects, he looked at me like I had 3 eyes and knew nothing about it hahaha.
Not expecting that anytime soon.
So how can we be in a housing shortage and have a record number of Toronto condos on the market?
One theory is that Toronto experienced a spike in one-bedroom listings in the 500 to 600 square feet range as the demand by investors significantly weakened. Prospective purchasers for home occupation have a preference for larger condos so that market for larger suites has not had the same spike in listings.
And we are seeing the same in Victoria. Lots of one-bedroom downtown condos for sale .
Canadians like to have space to own and live in. One might rent a small condo temporarily but they are less likely to purchase one for home occupation.
Faster permitting won’t get projects built any faster if no one wants to build them.
and this is why I strongly believe we are royally screwed on housing long term and there is no hope for it to be ever resolved. Typical person/internet armchair general simply has no clue.
There hasn’t been a great deal of new downtown condo construction coming on to the market lately. Most investors prefer new or near new buildings as the first five years rarely require repairs or replacement. Most near new rental condos aren’t even painted between tenants. But after five years normal wear and tear means the older condos at the five to ten year age are going to have additional costs to an investor.
Professionally painting a suite and replacing appliances are not cheap. At that point it might be more advantageous to sell rather than keep the rental condo. Depending on the vacancy rate, the achievable rents might also be sliding without spending on remodeling.
And that is what I have been seeing. There has been an increase in listings of near new downtown condos built in the last decade on the market that haven’t had any significant remodeling.
LMAO, this is typical internet armchair general with zero clue of what happens in reality….. Saanich couldn’t even get their own permits approved without delay when building a firehall for themselves.
The new government digital building permit hub promises faster permit approvals, and it is live now. https://buildingpermit.gov.bc.ca/welcome
So far only two cities are live (Langley and North Vancouver with “other coming soon”). According to the cities, a big problem causing delays is from the applicant side, with incomplete information, and at least the digital process may notify the applicant during the submission process.
A multi-plex? Which would be better – a condo complex or a rental complex?
My thoughts are that the government should consider easing up on rental restrictions when in comes to new multi-family rentals to encourage new construction.
For example only, the first five years of a new rental project could be exempt from rental restrictions.
As it is today, 25 to 30 percent of the income for a small four or six unit complex goes to expenses such as property taxes, insurance, utilities etc. That makes the return on a purchase of a small multi-plex rental building, before debt servicing, at around 3 to 4 percent.
If rents for a new building were allowed to increase with the free market that would make investing in a new rental complex less risky. As it is today, you need to set your initial rental rate high to test the market which could lead to a longer lease up period. Price the rental too low and then it would be locked in at the prescribed rent increases.
To what degree are all these housing calculations based on a continuation of the high immigration numbers?
I was talking with a Toronto developer that was concerned that the Liberal’s pre-election or the the Conservatives post election might seriously cut back the numbers. He pointed out that his projects are based on projections five years out and a twenty to twenty-five percent risk factor is a really big deal. He also pointed out that Toronto condos are not exactly flying off the shelves today. Then we went back to discussing the days of our youth and the Hart House pub.
What part of Oak Bay are you looking at. Sidekick?
The province could step in on fees and permitting like they have on zoning. However, municipalities need developers to apply for permits first and the interest rate and regulatory conditions we have have caused a slow down on this.
Cheaper and faster permitting would make a big difference one day, but not until interest rates decline and prices show signs of appreciation.
No investors means the presale market that supports rental condo development is dead. Need a lot of government backed purpose built to fill this gap.
While I agree in principle, they have a lot of control over building costs – either directly via fees/requirements or via zoning restrictions. I feel like development in Langford was way above the rest of the CRD partly due to this.
Leo was talking about the pre-approved multiplex plans (in Kelowna I think), and that makes a ton of sense to me. That alone is probably a 50K saving. Imagine if Marko got his wish and various departments came to the table with the developer (at the same time) and hashed out a solution quickly?
I’m thinking about building a multiplex (in Oak Bay) so I’m sure I’ll have lots of venting to do at some point.
When you first wrote about the municipal targets last year, you expected serious consequences if the targets were not met, with interventions and zoning overrides. I said there will be no consequences. From what you’re saying above, seems like you’re not sure if there’ll be any consequences at all.
Population growth in BC has been 15 people per 1,000 population over the 5 year census period 2016-21.
If they put 1.5 people per bedroom , they would need about 10 bedrooms since many are couples.
From your previous chart, building rate is currently been 20 bedrooms per 1,000 people per year. So that’s 2X what’s needed for population growth,easily enough bedrooms after accounting for tear downs. The problem. Is that many bedrooms will be used for other things like offices.
That’s why total units is a good metric, since the extra rooms are often used for other things like offices and not to house as bedrooms. Typical idea is a couple that has a 2 bdr condo and only use one as a bedroom. With 1bdr bedroom units, 100% of the bedrooms are used as bedrooms. With 2 bdr units, maybe 50% use the second bdr as a bedroom.
totoro- It’s called passing the buck. Governments are experts at it.
After having some time to consider housing targets – they seem highly uncorrelated to reality. In what universe are municipalities in control of the pace of housing development? Do they own the land? No. Are they in the business of building houses? No.
The fact is that the general economy and zoning are correlated with development. Given that zoning constraints have been addressed with provincial legislation, I’m not sure how the province expects municipalities to be able to overcome high land, construction, and interest rate costs to magically force developers to build more housing right now. Be surprised if a court would find penalties imposed for not meeting targets to be lawful given that municipalities are just not in the business of building houses and don’t have the expertise or finances to carry this out – or the mandate.
If the province wants to speed things up they can enact further reforms on permitting timelines and requirements. Other than that, interest rates need to drop or there needs to be huge government investment in purpose built rentals and the required infrastructure.
Love the target graphs, thank you for breaking this down!