Did strong income growth persist through the pandemic?

You can get an okay crowd out for a jazz evening as long as there is free food and alcohol.

Umm really , ya doubt it makes money , just one of those things Vic can just top up , all good.

Max , 1.3 seems thin , why doesn’t she just take it to market

She will…She’s no dummy. I have even had Marko involved in this…He’s pissed off Colwood so much with his own development he is of very little use. Infact he’s dangerous.

Maybe sellers are coming around to my theory to price aggressively

My mother in law owns an 18000 sq/ft ocean front lot down on the esquimalt lagoon. She is sick and tired of paying this land vacancy tax. Colwood is very keen on acquiring this property and have offered her 1.3m. My wife and mother in law were at colwood today in discussions with the mayor and laid the floor at 1.85m.

We’ll see what happens.

Can’t wait to hear about how much it loses when it gets assigned 19 managers and is filled with government employees that want $40/ hour + tips to do anything, ruins shows with the 6th land acknowledgment

Nan.

Relax. The government isn’t running Hermann’s, that’s still the non-profit Arts on View Society that’s been running it for years. Just like the government also won’t be running the business for the upstairs commercial space where they’re actively looking for a tenant. The government are the landlords.

I really hope that the foods is better than the last few times I was at Hermans.

https://househuntvictoria.ca/2024/05/21/did-strong-income-growth-persist-through-the-pandemic/#comment-115808

I don’t think this is an appropriate purchase for a respectable government.

If there is sufficient economic activity in a region to justify this sort of thing in the private sector, it will get built by profit seekers – it did once. “For 34 years, Hermann put his energy and passion towards the creation of a cozy meeting place for established and emerging musicians, and music lovers, from Victoria and Vancouver Island, while attracting talented performers and guests from around the world,” Stephen said in a statement

But hiding a lack of investment in the private sector because your country is an absolute shithole for private business and investing in an anything other than real estate just makes things worse. So now since there is no more passion (i.e. profits) in running this establishment, the government is going to step in, overpay and “run” it? Can’t wait to hear about how much it loses when it gets assigned 19 managers and is filled with government employees that want $40/ hour + tips to do anything, ruins shows with the 6th land acknowledgment I’ve heard that day and how property taxes are going up to continue to subsidize its inefficiency.

Additionally, the net cost of anything is never zero. Something was sold that generated cash. Now that cash can be spent. The cost of the bar is what the bar cost. There is nothing that says the city has to spend it on a bar. Maybe they should invest in more suitable public housing? Or anything really.

Curious if the talk of people holding listings off market until June for the hope of a rate cut comes true (rate cut or not)? If there’s a splooge of new lists in the first two weeks of June, I guess we will have the answer.

Curious if anyone knows what 2217 Lydia went for?
I tried posting this previously, but I didn’t see it show up right away.

I bought a fixer upper in August 1981 and my recollection was that prices drifted down slowly until 1983. Due to the condition of the house I got a fairly good deal (for the time) and did not feel I was seriously under water until 1983. At that point it felt like they drifted down a little more quickly for a few more years until activity picked up a bit. Sellers that do not have to sell resist capitulating for a long time. My vote would be with the camp that believes the market price will drift sideways for 5+ years to regain some affordability. The other big factor is demographics. The Millennials are a bulge generation just like the boomers were. Once that moves through the house buying stage there will be less pressure as both the preceding and following generations were / are smaller.

I don’t think we find out until next year. If rates go down it will impact variable more than fixed, as fixed already prices in rate decreases. Later 2025 and 2026, will be the 5 year renewals of people who got big mortgages at low interest rates 5 years ago. There could be some selling pressure if those mortgage payments are hard to maintain. Who knows though…

Imo , if the market was going to go down significantly it should have done it by now . Things do seem to be selling , so can only get better with a June rate cut

Just strange. Seeing sale prices on a few that are surprisingly high, but then seeing places sitting there on price reductions that seem like value buys that are not moving.

Seeing the exact same thing every day.

Just strange. Seeing sale prices on a few that are surprisingly high, but then seeing places sitting there on price reductions that seem like value buys that are not moving.

But he would have had to qualify for his mortgage without taking any of this income into account. So basically the same political/regulatory risk that’s applicable to all investments.

In my opinion the guy just wanted to put in a bit of extra work and be productive by not letting his unit sit empty half the year, but productivity is something that we try to punish in Canada with over-regulation and taxes. The specialist doctor is making too much, let’s increase his or her taxes….well have fun waiting 6 months to see a specialist and sitting in emerge for 10 hrs to get an antibiotic for something simple.

Someone wants to build their own house? How about no, let’s add a unnecessary barrier to that.

Etc.

Look at this photograph … every time I do it makes me laugh

I was so nervous that I nearly missed.

Nickelback was playing Victoria in local pubs…Look at them now.

Look at this photograph … every time I do it makes me laugh

has to do 30 days or over?
Correct, and he purchased a short term rental zoned unit specifically so he could rent it 1/2 the year due to his on/off work schedule on the boats.

But he would have had to qualify for his mortgage without taking any of this income into account. So basically the same political/regulatory risk that’s applicable to all investments.

Nickelback was playing Victoria in local pubs…Look at them now.
Lots of talent has been spawned from Victoria.

I feel it’s up there with a Ronnie Scott’s

These guys used to play Victoria all the time down at the forge, brass rail, king john, or where ever. Just small gigs. They all became multi millionaires… Topping the charts.

Patrick , totally agree , Herman’s is a gem has a great old school feel and having been to some great jazz clubs around the world , I feel it’s up there with a Ronnie Scott’s

He works 21 days on/off so 30 days doesn’t work for him. After he uses up his 4x he is out of luck.

So he can do 4x under 30 days then the 5th time he has to do 30 days or over?

we the people just bought Hermann’s.

Yes, it was a brilliant move by the city of Victoria to purchase Hermann’s for $4 million. This is an iconic club for live jazz, blues etc. and is well known among jazz musicians around the world. Tourism, arts and culture are a big part of Victorias economy. Live music is a reason for people to go downtown in the evenings. The (initial) net cost to the city is $0 since it’s funded by them selling other land/property. So a win/win.

https://www.vicnews.com/local-news/victoria-buys-hermanns-jazz-club-to-sustain-and-support-live-music-downtown-7330896

Max, you seem to have trouble understanding the nature of a partnership.

That argument is very weak, especially coming from a lawyer. I wasn’t even talking about partnership.

Do you see the other lawyers as some form of debt?

If they don’t do anything and are not productive…Yes.
And a law firm is the epiphany of corporate greed.

Max, you seem to have trouble understanding the nature of a partnership. For example most law firms in BC are corporate entities. Basically a group of lawyers who are a partnership. Do you see the other lawyers as some form of debt?

I imagine Victoria would be a big destination for highly paid remote workers and Americans with big pockets.

Not going to be too attractive to anyone who doesn’t already pay Canadian income taxes. I well remember Howard Hughes’ months-long visit to the Bayshore Hotel back in the 1970’s. Took up a whole floor. Suddenly left days before he would have been considered a resident for Canadian income tax.

I guess the legal question is the 5th separate occassion does it have to be 30 days or 90 days, I would argue 30 days.

If its 30 days then wtf is that boat guy at the janion keep whining?

Max , I checked it out very cool . Also we the people just bought Herman’s , great local musicians playing for door , so they are worth supporting lots of great talent in this lil city

Max. shareholder are not debt, they are owners of the business, You can increase capital by issuing new shares but you are then diluting the degree of ownership of the previous shareholders. (I dont want to go into the intricacies of preferred shares for obvious reasons).

It is all about corporate greed

I agree with this to some degree. Shareholder wealth creation also implicates us as individuals. Most people want their portfolios to increase in value, regardless of what it takes to get those returns. Number up == good, number down == bad.

Sure, some executives have bigger gains than those with RRSPs/etc., but ultimately most of us with securities and such want similar things, maybe just to different degrees.

isn’t it just the most strict standard prevail? So basically in COV you can only rent your principal residence on 4 separate occasions per year if the length of stay is less than 90 days?

Don’t forget strata bylaws as well which in my case is 30 days minimum.

90 days is on non-prinicpal residence at the provincial level, there is no restriction on principal residence.

I guess the legal question is the 5th separate occassion does it have to be 30 days or 90 days, I would argue 30 days.

If the answer is 90 days then I don’t see who would enforce that? The province wouldn’t because it is principal residence (no restrictions) and I’ve talked to the COV short term rental department multiple times and they are okay with 30 day rentals.

That increase is nearly identical to inflation, which was just over 12% in the same period, which means that real incomes seem to have made no gains in the last 3 years (but also not lost ground).

This is interesting @Leo when compared to the rest of BC. I’m curious how the distribution of Victoria across nationalities and remote workers differs from the rest of BC. Given its proximity and desirability, I imagine Victoria would be a big destination for highly paid remote workers and Americans with big pockets. That might skew the data for even the median incomes in Victoria if a high enough % of workers fit into these categories.

Also hi Warren, your previous comments about all real estate investments being a gamble got me thinking. Gotta know when to hold em, know when to fold em. I agree. I don’t agree that a rental property is never cash positive but we can agree to disagree on that one. Cheers

200k a year gets a townhouse Langford?

It gets you a new row house with very little parking. If you prefer ebikes It could be a good fit.

Fairly easy to check that though.

says Leo and then follows up with the data-geek equivalent of a body slam

This entity has no accountability, no restrictions to budget or to salaries, no limits to staffing, and creates entitled employees who essentially have jobs and pensions for life without once having their abilities or performance judged against any business metric.

sounds like you have no idea what you are talking about….

Booby k , ya I would say the 50 to 100 k collector buyer is more emotional. Once u get in the higher end stuff say 500 k up , it’s going to be investment. The returns on Ferrari, Porsche , mercedes etc at auction have been phenomenal .

It would be interesting to know how much this rise in real income is related to the hiring practices one of our key employers. This entity has no accountability, no restrictions to budget or to salaries, no limits to staffing, and creates entitled employees who essentially have jobs and pensions for life without once having their abilities or performance judged against any business metric.

Some of these employees even have a nice side-line in lightly-used wood-splitters. I can put you in touch.

Easy to say that wages will always go up just like everything else. I hang out in the collector car world and I’m always floored by very ordinary cars getting big bucks . The low interest rates have pumped up a lot different assets

Leo, as mentioned the average age of Canadians has increased over that time from 36 to 41, with increased education and job automation, TFW’s and given that people earn more as they get older this might explain some of the difference.

In terms of house price increases above historical norms over that period we have many factors as listed above such as more 2 parent working households, greaty reduced mortgage rates, older population which leads to higher incomes, increased immigration, more government regulations driving up building costs, increased commodification of residential real estate and on and on. I look forward to a reversal of a few of theae factors which could lead to low future home price equity returns with a revsion to the mean for returns.

And if anyone is wondering I am not a real estate bear or wannabe owner, I am a member of Generation X who purchased a home in an affluent part of town after university in 2001, I could care less what happens to real estate prices, all I want is a healthy region where young familes dont need to compete with “investors” to own their own home and raise a family.

After 25 years of real incomes going sideways before 2000, the fact that real incomes went up quite a bit after 2000 is absolutely notable. The reason I posted it is because many people don’t know this. It’s not enough to counter the even faster increases in house prices as I showed in the article. But that doesn’t change the fact that we’ve had a strong couple decades in incomes whether you want to believe it or not

I personally look at wages of 2x government employees which are somewhat correlated to nursing/teachers/police/fire/etc., and basically two of those incomes set a floor on a median type of real estate product which right now is probably a townhome in Langford.

Despite a large amount of inventory when it comes to Langford townhomes the prices really aren’t seeing substantially downward pressure and I think that is because 1000s of people fit the profile described above.

At the end of the day if people can afford they buy and with wage increases over time affordability does improve.

the fact that real incomes went up quite a bit after 2000 is absolutely notable.

It is, but in itself it doesn’t tell us whether it’s due to real wages going up or due to more hours worked per family, including increased workforce participation. In particular, an increase in young employed people living at home rather than on their own will increase family income numbers.

Also keep in mind that individual wages tend to peak after 50, so the increase in size of this cohort over the last 20 years may be a factor. Doesn’t help those outside the cohort.

Whateveriwanttocallmyself. That is a great question. The short answer is yes, the bank should then be allowed to foreclose on the land that was put up for collateral.

The long answer is you cannot treat The Nations as both equals and as children not mature enough to make their own decisions. The Nations like countries and governments should be allowed to succeed and fail based on the merits of their decisions. If democratically elected Chiefs and Councils want to take on loans by using their assets as collateral they should be allowed to.

We are all conditioned by the responses to our decisions. Currently the way the system is designed is Nations get rewarded (by having more money) for knowing how to get funded but rarely rewarded for knowing how to use it well. I would even go as far to say they are negatively rewarded because if they use it well ISC will give them less money as they see them as having less need.

Also when you are thinking of land being “mortgaged” don’t only think of reserves and don’t only think of permanent ownership. The better way of thinking about it is as collateral. Lets say First Nation “A” wants to build a pulp mill because they have the resources for it and think it will provide great economic opportunities. They need 100 million dollars to do so. The bank says we’re willing to loan you the money but for the collateral we want a certain portion of reserve land and First Nation “A” to give up their mineral and hunting rights. I think the Nation should be allowed to do that and in a legally binding way so both parties have trust that the deal will be followed.

Lets look at another example. First Nation “B” is located very remotely in Northern Manitoba and due to the realities of geography a sizeable portion of their population has to go to Winnipeg for health needs, economic opportunities, education, etc… Manitoba Hydro wants to run some transmission lines through their land. First Nation “B” says we’ll give you a certain area of our reserve but in return we want a small urban reserve near Winnipeg. I think this kind of deal should be allowed as both parties benefit from it and it is done in a legally binding way so they both trust the clearly defined rules of the agreement will be followed.

Lets look at another example. There are ten First Nation tribes that are under Treaty 2. First Nation 1 wants to purchase from Nations 2-10 their claims to a certain area beside their reserve so they can have additional land for housing. Should the other Nations be allowed to trade claims and lands amongst themselves. I think they should.

There have been many agreements made between the government and various First Nations that have not been followed. Some have been followed to the letter but not their intent. The current government might be the product of the past but is not them. Similarly the current First Nations are descended from the original signatories but are now familiar with how the Canadian government thinks and operates. With consent from both sides new agreements should be able to be formed and old ones amended in a manner that is predictable and enforceable.

The first thing in my opinion that needs to be changed so reconciliation can move forward is reserve land no longer belonging to “Her Majesty” as it currently does but the land title being given to the Nations. They should not be treated like children. The freedom we have to make their own choices is being denied to them. This freedom cannot be present without the possibility of having the freedom to make unwise choices.

Patriotz , saw it on Global news live with Sofia lui

But if you do it for 89 days at a time then that is still conisdered STR. You had stated under 30 days before.

Yes because COV is 30 days. As I said you need to draw out a ven diagram for this including provincial, muncipal, and revenue Canada and who knows what else regulations and definitions.

Yes, but you can SRT your principal residence under provincial regulations.

But if you do it for 89 days at a time then that is still conisdered STR. You had stated under 30 days before.

2 million new Canadians with changes to immigration today . More folks chasing after homes here , sweet

The internet is awash with squirrel recipes

Garth Turner had a shit load of squirrel recipes back in 2008 when he told us we were all gonna die. This is no shit, there were tutorials on how to skin them, gut them, and saute them.

I like Cosco but you have to be careful since the prices are not necessarily the best for all items. I have found it interesting at how much the West Shore has grown in the last ten years. I wonder why more government jobs are not moved out to the West Shore?

We love costco. If they had a really good online shopping cart system in place with home delivery they would have the market dialed. We drop a grand per month there. When you have a family of four with 1 dog and 3 cats it only makes sense.
Kinda like sysco for residents.

https://www.sysco.ca/location/victoria

Fyi in COV you can only do STR four times per year in your pricinpal residence so that would need to be a pretty unique situation where you are collecting over 30k on four stays under 30 days.

Marko, isn’t STR in COV anything less than 90 days now given the new provincial rules?

I posted this last week but I don’t think it showed up. Does anyone here know if you decide to run a STR out of your home, as allowed by the new rules, if you need a GST number? Previously you needed one if it was a separate property, but I haven’t heard if that’s the case under these new rules and the regulations aren’t clear from what I’ve seen. Or, is it just like long term rent where it’s just added to your income?

Fyi in COV you can only do STR four times per year in your pricinpal residence so that would need to be a pretty unique situation where you are collecting over 30k on four stays under 30 days.

But the rules are a huge mess. Whenever anyone asks a question on FB/Reddit there are 10 different responses. Problem is provisional legislation is not aligned with municipal. It’s like one of those ven diagrams trying to figure out what you can’t and can do.

In Winnipeg, First Nations negotiations for Kapyong barracks took 22 years. A shovel is still not in the ground. Our new premier wants to put a casino on the land. Great idea, not.

I guess it is back to beating a deer over the head with a hammer and pulling out the old venison recipe

The Eastern Grey Squirrel (aka the bushy tailed rodents in Beacon Hill Park) are an invasive introduced species. They can be hunted and trapped without license or permit or bag limit (unlike deer for instance). https://www.env.gov.bc.ca/van-island/wildweb/pdf/Squirrel_FAQ_10_July_09.pdf.

The internet is awash with squirrel recipes and in fact my very ancient edition of joy of cooking (since replaced) even had a squirrel recipe. You’ll be doing a favour for both the ecosystem and your pocketbook.

China now has a surplus of housing with about 65 million vacant condominiums.

So how did China manage not just to meet future populations needs – but surpass them?

One way was the use of Eminent Domain. When a Committee in China decides to build something – it takes over all of the surrounding land without regards to how may residents live there. The land owners are compensated and usually at generous amounts. That usually means that the district will get up to 20 acres of land at a time that will be ready to be developed in 6 to 7 months. The Committee then sells the land off to dozens of developers to recoup their initial cost and more as the city makes the profit from up zoning rather than the land owner.

For Greater Victoria that might mean hundreds of acres of farmland near the urban core such as Tanner Ridge, Keating Cross Roads, Saanichton, Granville, Hospital, Blenkinsop Valley?

Basically, the district governments and committees become land developers.

We have done this in the past when the land around the proposed Veterans Parkway was purchased from single family home owners. The government then up zoned the land surrounding the parkway tor multi-family housing.

It’s doubtful that we would do such a thing. Mostly because every city planner’s head would explode as it goes against densification but rather towards nodes of high density areas surrounded by low density houses. It is also more expensive to the tax payer as the costs are initially born by the city. With infill developments the costs are paid by the individual developers to extend services to their site which slows down the development process as the developer has to hold the land until prices rise to make the development economically feasible.

But those damn Communists did get a lot of housing built in a very short time period.

Maybe I’ll go to Costco when I am retired. Right now my free time is worth too much to me to bother trekking out to the Westshore for groceries.

During my first 13 or so years in Victoria, I never once set foot in Costco. Treated it like a badge of honour. Then, a few years ago, I started getting annoyed by how much I was overpaying for things like cheese, coffee, EVOO, and tp. So I begrudgingly began shopping at Costco once every 1-2 months to stock up on select items. Saves me a bundle, but boy do I dislike how busy it is, and it’s only getting worse.

Gosig, you left out the farmers markets, independent butchers and fish mongers and a number of specialty stores for great ethnic food.

I guess it is back to beating a deer over the head with a hammer and pulling out the old venison recipes.

why would someone called “Introvert” willing go into a Costco? did you lose a bet?
i know i must face the stress and anxiety of a visit the dentist or to the airport … but i don’t have to go into a Costco
Even if they are selling gold plated Fillet Mignon at $0.02/lb i will pass.

Sadly though, as you know from social media, there are limited choices to grocery shopping in Canada.
Other than Thriftys, Save-on-Foods, Fairways, Walmart, Country grocery, Root Cellar, Quality Foods, Red Barn, Market-Stores, Whole Foods, or even (gasp) Loblaws, there really is no where to shop.

The Comox Valley, population 72,445, has a Costco.

The majority of young adults in Canada cannot even afford “affordable” rents.

Expect to see alot more generational houses moving forward.

What is a multi-generational home?

Multi-generational living isn’t new. For centuries, different cultures have embraced the concept and the ways it connects older and younger generations.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/canada-bc-multi-generational-housing-affordable-1.7134448

The majority of young adults in Canada cannot even afford “affordable” rents. What exactly is this mythical “affordable” number? I’ve never seen any hard numbers from any level of government. I doubt they have a clue.

as the rents won’t cover the home owner’s mortgage payments.

Well boo hoo, it was never supposed to be that way. How about get a job to make the mortgage payments!
If you are banking on rental income to survive, I’d say you are treading thin ice.
IMO.

are they building them in China?

Perhaps this explains the ghost cities of China. Their way didn’t work.

Whateveriwanttocallmyself

So is brown brothers building all these rental units just to be nice?

the government provides housing, and we all know how well that’s worked out.

I thought the government was subsidizing all these new rental builds?

Peter Gosniak – The fact that housing has returned roughly the same as the S&P is an issue in a couple of ways. 1) when the return of equity so far outstrips the return on labor, the divide between lowest and highest earners becomes greater and greater. i.e. disappearing middle class. 2) Treating housing as an investment that can or should have the same returns as the stock market is incredibly inefficient from a productivity perspective.

Maybe you should give your head a shake.

Did Zealty stop sharing sold data for the island? I don’t see them anymore when I log on. Can anyone please tell me what 2958 Irma St sold for?

S&P 500 has returned 450% since 2000. Maybe house prices are right where they should be…likely not a correlation but thought provoking on where someone should invest their cash?

One chart is real income, i.e. inflation adjusted, but the other is nominal.

No. The the real income one says 2022 dollars, and that’s the year we’re talking about. No inflation adjustment needed.

Why is there all this talk about cutting rates this coming of June when inflation is still in the upper range

Well, as BoC has already noted there are going to be a lot of people renewing mortgages at much higher rates within the next year or so. This will have the same impact on demand as an actual rate increase. And following on what Peter said, fewer people in the US will see big mortgage increases since many have 30 year or other long range terms.

Now if you really want to have an additional interesting projection of Canadians income or actual purchasing power on the international stage convert incomes over the last ten years into USD. If you are feeling poorer it is because you actually are poorer in most cases.

USD rose against most currencies over last 10 years (except Swiss CHF).
Canada dollar was flat or up against most currencies over last 10 years (except USD and Swiss CHF).

So you’d feel poorer or richer depending in which currency you compare with.

But if you have to compare with the US, this should make Canadians feel richer.

https://www.financialsamurai.com/the-average-canadian-household-net-worth-is-huge/

“The average Canadian household net worth is surprisingly huge at roughly $680,000 in 2021, up from $400,151 in 2012 according to Statistics Canada. The average Canadian household net worth is roughly 2X the average U.S. household net worth.“

Great article Leo.

Maybe you could elaborate on the differences in two of your charts.

—— The “mean and median real family income in BC” shows BC median income (2022) to be $79,000
—— The Victoria “total median family income” chart shows Victoria “total” median income (2022) to be about $116,000

Is this apple-to-apples? If so, Victoria median incomes are way higher (+46% higher) than BC incomes. A 46% difference between Victoria and BC seems unlikely, and they must be measuring different things. What?

Sales are more or less hanging on to the year ago pace while new lists stay strong.

Sales aren’t actually that bad, will be above median.

2024 estimate – 850
2023 – 775
2022 – 761
2021 – 1,049
2020 – 457
2019 – 848
2018 – 755
2017 – 1,008
2016 – 1,289
2015 – 905
2014 – 714
2013 – 659
2012 – 659
2011 – 572
2010 – 695

Frank, one of many factors is that there was a surge of baby boomers buying with no major increase of the number of SFH being built.

Now if you really want to have an additional interesting projection of Canadians income or actual purchasing power on the international stage convert incomes over the last ten years into USD. If you are feeling poorer it is because you actually are poorer in most cases. It is not a straight one to one calculation (as I am sure that many will point out) but it should really give you pause to think ( well at least in a couple of cases).