Regions and property types: what’s doing the best?
We know that the market overall has pulled back a little since February, going from a peak of 75% of properties going in bidding wars and under 1 month of inventory, to 38% going over ask (last week) and what looks like a little over two months of inventory in May. Prices have roughly stalled out for the time being even if we certainly can’t call it anything close to a buyer’s market yet.
But is any part of the market doing better or worse than another? In Ontario where the slowdown seems to have been more severe, the outlying areas and more expensive detached properties seem to have weakened more than downtown and condos. In Vancouver apparently it’s much the same, with suburban townhomes and detached dropping in price while downtown and attached properties are roughly flat. The below charts from Zealty paint the picture. While all property types are showing some price weakness in May to date, Fraser Valley detached prices have declined substantially since February.
Whether it’s rising rates or a shift in preferences away from the longer commutes that drove up prices in the suburbs during the pandemic, it’s clear that some market segments are holding up better than others.
Let’s take a quick look to see if there’s a similar trend at work in Victoria, or if everything is cooling off more or less equally. From a price perspective, there aren’t too many stark differences. Notably for detached properties, median prices are down from the peak mania in February/March for houses in the core and the westshore. Commuting from Langford can’t really be compared to commuting from the Fraser Valley so the same factors are likely not at work here. For condos, downtown prices have been very stable. Westshore condo medians are below the peak but there aren’t that many sales so take the prices with a grain of salt.
Prices are pretty noisy, so we can also look at it from the point of view of the median sales to assessed value ratio by month. There we see a mostly flat trend with some more weakness in May, with all categories down a couple percent from their levels in previous months. Westshore condos are not included due to few sales that make this measure unreliable.
Part of the declines in that measure may be more due to the reduction in irrational sales than drops in fair market value. Back in February we had the majority of properties going in bidding wars, and I suspect quite a few back then sold for over market value while today we are back to a more orderly market. Hope those buyers that went in with big offers in the spring are planning to stay put for a while.
Worth noting that the MLS HPI benchmark shows the opposite, with continued strong gains in every category. However just as the HPI was badly understating the degree of price increases last year, I think right now it is still lagging and hasn’t reflected the changed market. While the benchmark prices are a stable and relatively good measure of prices in the long run, they do seem to lag the market especially during times of rapid change.
Overall then the market seems to be cooling off relatively uniformly, with perhaps downtown condos being the most stable and weakness across categories more evident in May to date. We had some months of market cooling and price decreases last summer too so we’ll have to see if this slowdown is longer lasting.
Also the weekly numbers courtesy of the VREB.
| May 2022 |
May
2021
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Sales | 176 | 364 | 568 | 1049 | |
| New Listings | 351 | 752 | 1117 | 1333 | |
| Active Listings | 1451 | 1584 | 1664 | 1450 | |
| Sales to New Listings | 50% | 48% | 51% | 79% | |
| Sales YoY Change | -24% | -27% | -25% | ||
| Months of Inventory | 1.4 | ||||
LIstings continued to come in somewhat faster than the year ago pace which combined with roughly stable sales to led to a continued build in inventory, now sitting at 14% more than last May.
That has driven the rate of over asks down again after some weeks of stability. Whenever they get around to implementing that cooling off period we should be essentially back to normal levels of under 5-10%. It will be interesting if the regulatory change completely eliminates the underpricing strategy from the market, but either way I don’t think it will be a significant factor when it is introduced.
Looking at sales to list ratios, it’s been a remarkably steady slowdown so far this year.
Though months of inventory is generally the more reliable indicator of market balance, the sales to list ratio does react a bit faster to market changes, and we’re approaching the balanced market level of 50% in recent weeks. Quite the stark difference from the nearly 90% we were at a year ago.
The bond market has taken a bit of a pause, which should stop fixed rates from rising further for the time being. However most buyers today will be purchasing with locked in rates from a month or two ago, so the recent increases are yet to be fully reflected in the market, while variable rates will go up again in June. We should expect continued gradual draining of demand in the coming weeks.
Frank you’re complaining about immigration but this a major driver of the economic growth in our country and therefore the appreciation in your investments (and mine and everyone else’s too).
I didn’t say it was hard as today, today is ridiculous. But if definitely wasn’t as easy as people like to believe. Markets were hot in the late 1980’s. More so in different cities but there were still bidding wars. Should people have to mortgage their lives away, of course not, but you can’t expect the market to fit your price range, it just doesn’t work that way.
it was a lot easier then and in fact the higher rates were one reason why. I’m really tired of hearing the nonsense that the boomers had it as hard as first time buyers today. I was there and I know.
Looking for a place to live in an area that is extremely expensive could be considered foolish behaviour. There are plenty of jurisdictions across Canada where property is far less expensive. It’s like shopping for a Rolls Royce on a Honda Civic budget. I get it, the Island is a desirable place to live, but is it feasible for most people? Unfortunately the answer is no. One question- were you born and raised on the Island or did you make a conscious decision to move there (like most people commenting on this site). By the way, people thought I was a fool for buying in B.C. over 30 years ago. I remember my secretary asking me if I was crazy for paying $300,000 for my place in 1994. I didn’t argue with her, it was crazy then.
Today’s prices are simply too high and to go over a million dollars in debt for a place to live is crazy. I don’t know how we got to this place but bringing hundreds of thousands of people into a country that cannot provide them affordable housing would be where I would start. As long as the geniuses in Ottawa insist that what this country needs is more people competing for space, you’re screwed. Now there are millions of Ukrainians wanting to move here, and they’re coming, the doors are open. Our immigration levels are simply too high. Blame the government.
Frank – I just can’t relate to your point of view at all. People want places to live and they’re prepared to pay for that the same way you were 40 years ago. I take objection to you calling the current generation wanting homes fools. It’s just unnecessary.
Dr. Seuss- It wasn’t easy buying when I did either. Interest rates were over 12%. I could have left my hard earned money in a GIC for years . There was also no guarantee that property was going to appreciate, it was all a gamble. In fact when I bought in Victoria in 1994, I enjoyed 8 years of zero appreciation. Don’t confuse entitlement with hard work and persistence. I could have lost my shirt, lots of people have in real estate. Would I gamble in this market, hell no, I don’t know what’s motivating people to pay millions for a house, maybe they feel they’re entitled.
Standard cap rate for REIT’s used to be 6% not long ago.
They’re not in control of the market any more than you or I are.
New post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2022/05/30/cooling-off-period-whats-the-impact/
Snapshot of who is really benefitting from RE appreciation and rents. Take a look at Starlight Investments (you’ll see their signs in front of many apartment buildings). Over $25B in holdings. 25% Gross returns for investors. See a NEW fund they only started in February 2022.
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/starlight-western-canada-multi-family-no-2-fund-announces-strong-initial-operating-results-ahead-of-forecast-856668781.html
1: 661 units, spent $264MM in a just a few months
2: 400$K/ unit BV
3/ 2200 rent/month each unit
4/ Cap Rate 2.5% to 3.0% (not cap appreciation). Financed 75% by Debt
This fund is outside of the existing holdings. 60,000 units in Canada. See what they own in Victoria, absolutely mind blowing.
Companies like these are running RE right now.
Man, so many of the comments sound like they’re from entitled, know it all windbags these days. I mean I get it Frank, you bought real estate before I was born and made a lot of money. Is everyone else eye rolling at this privilege?
Good article Umm…Really.
I enjoyed this quote – ‘Right now, if there are 10 things on a buyer’s wish list and the house doesn’t have eight of them, they’re just going to pass,” said Brad Goetz, an agent at Canada’s Right at Home Realty. “Where prior to this, it was just like, ‘Hey, it has four walls and a kitchen and a bathroom. We’re good.’
You keep on analyzing while others keep on doing and we’ll see where we’re all at in 10 years I guess
Most people probably don’t want to be taking out a loan in a rising rate environment to buy something who’s value is inversely related to the very same rising rate environment. Actually I doubt most “investors” actually understand this so I think you end up making a good point.
Interesting, so on the one hand you are a super bullish on RE prices but on the other hand you say whoever buys now is the greater fool. lol sounds like a lot of confusion going on.
Usually don’t get many Canada mentions in my Reuters feed, but some Canadian real estate talk gets mixed in with global picture in this story.
https://www.reuters.com/business/safe-houses-rising-rates-test-foundations-property-boom-2022-05-30/
VicRE- I have no desire to pay these ridiculous prices for anything, I’m leaving that up to the greater fools. Like I stated, the most I’ve paid for any real estate is $330,000. As far as I’m concerned the real estate ship has sailed. I’ve got my properties and renters, and have no need to sell yet. I’ve gone through some pretty lean times in the last 33 years and can weather this next storm which I believe will be nothing more than a lull. Things will pick up again and the greater fools will come out of the woodwork and drive prices higher again. That’s when I might sell.
I had a conversation with an old friend of mine who moved to Kelowna a couple years ago. We had a good laugh over the fact that we own houses in the $2 million dollar range, something we never thought possible even 10 years ago. What is going on truly is insanity, I’m not even going to try to explain it, but I have my theories.
Okay then they can use their own appraisers and chances are the market value is higher than the assessed. I’m sure it’s happened in the past couple decades, but when was the last time the market values were lower than assessed values in Greater Victoria and how long did that last?
Doubled or even tripled and interest rates are still really low. If you have the equity, as many do, and can afford the payments, why not turn your paper gains into another in-demand physical asset to hold long term?
New lists has nothing to do with buyers, new lists with no buyers just equals more inventory.
??
Lol, that’s funny.
You can bet your socks that the banks are not going to take BC Assessment seriously for lending purposes, even more so going forward than before.
New lists are up 15%
I was wondering would there be a scenario that most serious buyers were already bought prior to earlier May and a large portion of buyers on current market is just looking around?
Not sure, but there are only 83 total listings in Victoria and 217 in greater Victoria. If new lists are up 15%, or by 10 in Victoria and about 30 overall, this could be explained by a combination of factors including seasonality and those who were waiting to sell as prices rose deciding that now is the time if prices are going to drop and there is going to be more on the market to buy/move to. That would be my idea if I was a homeowner or investor who had been thinking about selling.
The average buyer was chasing the market in February and now the average seller is chasing the market.
It’s probably a perfect time to load up on more property if you’re sitting on decent equity. With the date of July 1 as their cutoff and this year already being strong in sales and appreciation, BC Assessment will grant homeowners another year of gains they won’t see correct or go down until January 1, 2024 and in the meantime those on paper gains can be leveraged if property prices are going down for the next 18 months. I know I’ll be looking for the right opportunity and won’t be cashing out, as tempting as it has been for the past several months.
New lists are up 15% according to Leo, who’s selling then? Did a bunch of people just decide to go up the property ladder in a rising rate environment with high inflation?
If you go with the commonly accepted narrative that residential realestate is an investor asset class then you have to accept all the psychology associated with investing.
Patrick just shooting from the hip . I myself have moved to side and having been through 82 and 94 I see a few years of dead money coming but it’s just all crystal ball stuff I’m hopeful Vic is more resilient than other towns
What is interesting is that seeing the market slow typically causes a pull back in purchasing, which can cause price drops and shift the market further. That would mean a better buying opportunity for some. I really doubt that there are too many people out there who own a second home who are going to panic and sell because prices drop. Rises in interest rates may be more of a reason to list for those who live close to the edge and have had a change in circumstances. Best to hold on through a drop if you can.
Maybe people sell because they’re not comfortable with the property, i.e. it doesn’t suit their current needs? People are always selling you know. Funny nobody asks this question when prices are going up.
Well you better go snap up some more real estate then! C’mon put an offer in for the house on Ascot, I want to see how the flip goes!
Many foreign immigrants have been locked in their apartments for two months and are finally being let out. 180 million Chinese were not allowed out of their building, some actually committed suicide it was so oppressive. I’m sure many of them would love to leave China. Another group of potential immigrants are currently tied up fighting a war. Don’t worry, the influx of immigrants is not going to end.
And then you follow with the BoC rates. You own chart shows that the blips in mortgage rates were not large enough relative to the existing rate to make a significant different in mortgage payments.
What downturns are you referring to that saw investors selling, and how are you measuring that?
The USA housing downturns in 1980-84 and 2007-13 saw rising investor participation (falling homeownership rate). I’d expect the same thing this time. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RHORUSQ156N
Thats exactly what I said a month ago, all these people saying “real-eastate is a long term play I don’t care about short term fluctuations etc.” Most of these “investors” have never lived through a situation where they are up big on paper and then have their paper gains decline by the week. Most will capitulate and sell when they see their neighbor’s house go for less and less.
Also, where are all the foreign immigrants snapping up all this new inventory that people thought were going to happen?
Maybe they want to cash out on their gains before price drops even more… Wonder what this would have gone for in Feb?
P.S. Frank you sure you don’t want to offer $1.5M and do a flip for $1.8M on this? for https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/24427216/3809-ascot-dr-saanich-cedar-hill
You might be able to get it for below $1.4M even with conditions, seems like a no brainer if you are certain its worth $1.8M all day.
“So the simple question is when (if ever) would you buy?”
If I were a home buyer (not a investor) in a downturn market condition, I’d buy decent SFHs with 7K+ sq ft lot in the Core once the rental cost equivalent or slight lower than the mortgage cost at 20% down payment.
No.
Rates have risen several times since 1981. There have been 5 periods of significant rising rates since 1993.
— 93-95 (4% to 8% BOC target rate)
—- 97-2000 (3% to 6%)
—- 2004-07 (2% to 4%)
—- 2017-19 (0.5 to 2%)
—- 2020-22 (0.25 – 1%) (likely 1.5% on Wednesday)
https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-mortgage-rates-to-surge-demand-will-be-slowest-in-recent-history-moodys/
This chart shows BOC target rates, and mortgage rates. Along with projection for BOC and mortgage rates (from Moody’s) for 2022-2027)
Affordability wasn’t an issue until the mid-2000’s or so. I was living the whole time in Vancouver, which has always been less affordable than Victoria, and I never encountered anyone who was waiting for prices to go down. They had already seen the bust of the early 1980’s and that was good enough. If they saw something they liked that they could afford they bought it.
And do keep in mind that once we were past the peak of interest rates circa 1981, nobody expected them to go up again. And they didn’t. Well not until now.
Hmm we might be up to 2400 listings by the end of June At this rate should help to balance the market There’s a lot of investors out there that might want to sell lock in profits and move to the sidelines which is kinda what happened in the last 2 downturns
Monday numbers
Sales: 694 (down 29%)
New lists: 1440 (up 15%)
Inventory: 1782 (up 23%)
New post later today.
People who have applied this logic to buying a house since, when, the 80s (?) in Victoria have made a losing move. Many were priced out of what they could have afforded and had to leave Victoria, leave the core, buy a strata instead of a home – or keep renting. Maybe it is different this time.
Wasn’t part of my analysis – but i suppose if you thought a SFH was a fair deal at 1.2 million when the rates were 2% then you might wait until prices were 900k when rates went to 4.25%. If you didn’t think it was a fair deal then you would wait longer. If you thought it was a great deal then you could buy anytime you saw fit. Obvious risk in any of those choices but if its a long term hold for your primary residence then the risk reduces.
Since investors account for somewhere around 60 to 70 % of presales for condo buildings, I am wondering about the impact of raising rates and declining prices on new condo developments. Are a number of new projects likely to be put on hold due to financing concerns by the banks?
I guess that I am assuming that investors might be shying away from condos since it is possible that rising rates could actually see unpredictable price declines. The level of risk strikes me as substantially higher than in past years.
IMHO one is not the cause of the other but both would have the same cause – sensible interest rates. It’s the negative real interest rates that have fueled both the Ponzi scheme of crypto and asset bubbles in RE and stocks. As always the Ponzi scheme is most vulnerable and will crash first and hardest.
I would seriously be suspect of the quality of properties coming onto the market these days. Think about it. If you have spent the last 5-10 years in your current home, you’ve probably sorted out any hidden problems or at least are aware of them. 110 year old houses like 954 Cowichan are probably on their last legs. Why would someone sell the property they are comfortable with to enter into the unknown. I would never buy a 100 year old house, I don’t think they were designed to last that long especially when energy efficiency is a prime concern. If you’re relatively content with your home, you’re probably staying put given the costs and aggravations of getting anything done.
Just learned on BNN that there are now 19,000 different cryptocurrencies. No telling how much money was “invested “ and lost in these pure pyramid schemes. How does this apply to housing? I’m not sure, but if there are billions of dollars floating around in virtual currencies, that might indicate how much real money is actually out there. I don’t know what percentage of people have crypto holdings, I do know 100% of people need a place to live. Would a collapse in the value of all cryptocurrencies cause a crash in the housing market? I doubt it. I do know that crypto did not exist prior to 2008 and real estate has been on an upward trend since the collapse of 2008. I wonder if the Great Recession was the stimulus for crypto creation, or at least helped it get started.
Size and functionality. Half the square footage is a finished under height basement. Leaving the upstairs as a 1 bedroom (from what looks to be originally a 2 bedroom house on a wet basement). So, it really doesn’t work for a family and who knows what headaches are behind the walls and ceilings in what appears to be a pretty slap together basement reno and suite addition.
A very informative & entertaining video on a Value Investing Youtube channel I follow. It’s about the different stages of the Stock and Real Estate market and where they think we are in the overall process. They are US based, but the same concepts apply of course.
It’s funny and well put together. A few of you might enjoy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPNU_q3Y2ss
How is 954 Cowichan still stuck on the market at $1.3M while people are paying more for langford and royal bay?
And then you have this delusional client and realtor: https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/24364088/1647-kenmore-rd-saanich-gordon-head
The main thing missing is some strategy as to when (if ever) you would buy.
For example, if prices drop 15%, I assume you’d wait until they’re down your expected 25%, which might never happen.
Or if they did drop 25%, but rates were 7%, your analysis below would expect them to drop 40%, so I assume you wouldn’t buy then either.
So the simple question is when (if ever) would you buy?
Two factors that might be good to consider in that scenario is that last year more people pushed into variable rate mortgages because the fixed rate mortgages moved well ahead to the BoC rate combined with spiking prices. This possibly opening more exposure to rising interest rates. The second is the downpayment factor, how willing are people to risk losing (even on paper) $240k in a matter of months in a decling market? Is that likely to make buyers gun-shy on a transactions? We can look at Fraser valley and Ontario sales to see how much has been trimmed off prices in such a short period of time. The $240k is tough stomach since it was cash in hand that you may now have to wait years to recover (and only recover on paper), even tougher if it came off a HELOC that interest is being paid on for money that no longer exists.
I was doing some math on where prices need to go to in order to offset the rate increase and whether its beneficial for a buyer when prices drop equivalent to the rate increase. Please check my logic on this:
Lets assume we are talking about the average house price of 1.2 million dollars (which is where Victoria is now). With 20% down (240k) the mortgage is 960K. At their lowest, fixed 5 years were around 1.5% – lets call it 2% for a closer average rate near the peak price. 960K, 30 year AM, at 2% mortgage has a payment of $3,544. Lets assume that $3,544 dictates the price. Today rates are around 4.25% so that same payment of $3,544 covers a mortgage of about 725,000. 960k to 725k is basically a 25% drop.
In this scenario, if we believed payments and prices to be exactly correlated (which they 100% aren’t) we would expect prices to drop 25% – or from 1.2 million to 900K).
So which position is better – having a better rate or better price on your home? Well its great to brag about a 2% rate but when you are underwater on your property that obviously sucks. And in less than 5 years you and the person who bought at 900K will both be renewing into likely similar rates only your mortgage is much higher. So getting a better price is better in this scenario.
One thing not factored in here as well that I think is important is the down payment. It may be logical to assume that a 25% drop in payment means you can afford a house worth 25% less (1.2 million turns into 900K ) but you are actually better off. Why? The down payment: the down payment is now a larger percentage of the mortgage so if you keep the 240K down payment on a 900K home you actually get a 660K mortgage instead of 725K – meaning your payment is $3,232 so you are saving about $300 a month. Now if you kept your PERCENT of down payment the same (20% of 900k; or 180k) then yes you are in the same spot payment wise (with an extra 60k in the bank mind you).
So if prices drop EQUAL to offset the rate increase you are still better off in more ways then one. Am I missing anything in this vacuum scenario (not looking at all of the obvious things like stress tests, or the fact that prices and rates are directly linked etc.). Just curious as quite often people think that a rate increase which offset prices the same wont’ actually benefit a buyer as affordability is the same but this obviously paints a different picture.
No, the difference is because much of the investor activity (38% owners are investors vs 62% owner occupied) – such as building, renovating and buying/selling multiple unit buildings occurs outside of the MLS statistics (MLS shows 15.8% investor buyers). That’s why you can’t use only the MLS portion to extrapolate as a measurement of the whole thing.
For example, if a developer builds a 200 unit building, and sells it to a REIT investor, nothing will show up on vreb/MLS.
Or the investor ownership number from half a decade ago hasn’t caught up.
From: https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/wealth-effect-column-don-pittis-1.6464144
Makes some sense, inflation really hasn’t really affected my bottom line, but when I do see the price on some things, I decide just not to purchase it because I don’t believe it’s worth the price. Same has been with going out or ordering dinner, the few times I saw what the price came to recently, I decided it really wasn’t worth it and my rec and entertainment funds have just been building up.
LOL, perhaps the crumpets must not tasted good that day to turn the lawn and gardens equipment into planet killers, but not the decadent pets or 100 year old inefficient SFH housing.
Perhaps the NIMBYs looked at the View Towers dense low income rentals as an example and saw high rates of drugs, violent crimes, and death that they voted down another building as such.
I totally agree. And the homeownership rate takes all of that into account, and that is why it’s a more accurate overall reflection of overall activity than looking at MLS buys by investors.
For example. If an investor buys a big house (from a homeowner, with one dwelling only), renovates it and rents it out as triplex (3 separate dwellings), the vreb survey will show 1 investor buy. Whereas the homeownership rate will correctly reflect the 3 rental dwellings and one less homeowner dwelling. The actual buy and sell of the homes is less important than what uses are made of the purchased homes.
We can see how hopeless the vreb realtor survey investor buying number (15.6%) is at estimating overall investor ownership (38%). That difference speaks for itself.
Except an owner-occupier can buy a property that also contains a rental dwelling. It’s not a clean division between owner-occupied and rental properties. Or, an investor can buy a single property that has two rental dwellings or more.
Remember, the home ownership rate is based on dwellings but RE sales stats are based on properties.
First off, in replying it is unfair to put quotes around something, to imply that I said it, when I didn’t. Feel free to put quotes around something that I actually said, but please don’t make up quotes to try to misrepresent someone’s position.
Looking at half of the data doesn’t allow you to make valid conclusions on what the other side of the data must show.
. For example, look at your interprovincial migration chart. If we only look at people leaving BC, we would see a record number leaving in BC, so we could announce that as an all time high, and falsely generalize it to mean that there’s overall migration out of BC.
That’s the same mistake that you’ve done with investors buying, and ignoring investors selling, to conclude that investors are jumping in and following the herd. Im not saying that including investor selling will surely show the opposite, i am saying that you haven’t supported the idea that high investor buying is also an all-time high of net investors buying minus selling.
If statCan 2021 census reports falling homeownership for Victoria, you have some evidence for increasing investors owning homes. Until then, looking at investor buying only is just noise.
“Yes we have some data to support your assertion, but what about all the data we don’t have that surely shows the opposite?”
The net migration line looks like an EKG, very consistent peaks. Any idea what quarter the peaks occur? Definitely a pattern that could indicate peak activity time for sellers.
You can’t judge investor “activity” by only looking at buying. You don’t have any data on investors selling. They may be net sellers, and have timed the peak of the market perfectly.
Moreover, for Victoria to maintain 62% home ownership, that means investors (landlords) need to own 38% of new supply of homes, not 15.6%. Because investors enter the market by either buying existing homes or BUILDING new homes. You’ve ignored all the investors building and only looked at the MLS buyers in concluding that investors are “herd following”.
Migration
Mid-2000s. People going to a play, some movies, and a couple of nightclubs/bars doesn’t exactly make a lively downtown. I’m not sure where you lived in Toronto, but I lived right downtown and the difference between daytime and night was stark, especially in the winter. The 5pm exodus was evident and most shops closed then. As far as density goes, considering that there’s more people in the Greater area not including Toronto than in Toronto itself…
Lots of investors are herd followers and like to jump in after the gains have already been made. At the peak of the market in February investors made up an all time high of 15.6% of purchases (of VREB realtor survey respondents).
Never saw a leaf blower when I was growing up and I’ve never seen the need for one. I think the people who think they need one are the idiots, but we’re all entitled to our opinions.
Sound level of a gas leaf blower-92.5 dbs.
Sound level of a burning landscaper caused by a faulty lithium ion battery-120 dbs. Saturdays will never be the same.
LoL. Nope, I hope I never reach such hyperbole. Maybe it was the writer being facetious (let’s hope no one would seriously relate one of history’s most horrific crimes to lawn care). I mostly think that there are better things councils can spend time on rather than the frivolous things that seem to occupy them (such as what folks use for lawn maintenance and tie it to really caring about climate change and try to sell to people that they are making a difference), but hey, whatever get folks elected nowadays….. Maybe they need more years just not to approve building condos or apartments on Oak Bay ave. In the end for municipal policies, we only have ourselves to blame because of the abysmal voter turnout for deciding who’s running the level of government that has the most impact on our daily lives.
This you Umm?
“ First they came for the gas leaf blowers and I did not speak out because I was not a gas leaf blower”
High risk Lyme disease tick areas for this year in BC.
From: https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6468200
I have a friend who is trying to sell right now in Rockland and virtually no one has even looked at the place. It would have been priced low just a few months back.
983 Bumsmear – one irrational sale does not make a market
983 Dunsmuir-1.341 mil. in Esquimalt, prices are plunging to Oak Bay levels. Tragic.
Leaf blowers are great for blowing snow off a car.
“Yep, well, It’s not just Victoria city council that are a bunch of knobs, Oak Bay city council has more than it’s share of idiots as well.”
Meh, I have a rake and a 40 year old electric lawnmower. I get by.
Doesn’t seem like a bad policy and looks like it will be phased in over 4 years.
Never had a reason to use a leaf blower despite having a fair bit of land. I use the fallen leaves as mulch. Why doesn’t everyone? Seems like a lot of fuss about something that could be refocused for a win:win situation with some public education and messaging. I got rid of most of my grass, but I’m fascinated by the electric robot mowers. Seems like they might pay for themselves over time if you hire this service out.
From: https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/oak-bay-to-bring-in-gradual-ban-on-gas-powered-gardening-equipment-5412077
Yep, well, It’s not just Victoria city council that are a bunch of knobs, Oak Bay city council has more than it’s share of idiots as well.
$1.341M
Leo so a 15 point haircut already and I’m guessing inventory is also taking a big leap forward
No lot is too good for a townhouse.
The funny thing is all the missing middle forms used to be legal in Victoria. You will find many small apartments even which are not included under the new proposal.
All that was removed in the 80s when Victoria was downzoned to single family only. Funny no one thought Victoria was Vancouver in the 1970s for allowing those forms? Missing middle only partially reverses the downzoning from 40 years ago.
Quite a different market in the fraser valley.
Frank, I agree. This is the harsh reality but very true. As population increases the price of membership for desirable areas gets pricier.
I believe the residents of Victoria want to keep their city a quaint, peaceful enclave of the privileged. They don’t want increased density, affordable housing, or anything that would disrupt their lifestyle. Do they want housing prices to drop 30%? I seriously doubt it. Politicians know their constituents, who have made contributions to keep things that way. People want affordable housing? Move somewhere else, we can’t help you. It’s probably like that in a lot of desirable cities around the world. In a strange way, by keeping prices out of reach of most people, Victoria increases its attraction for those who can afford the price of membership. Let’s call it the snob factor.
James, I am a Toronto Boy, and exactly how long ago did you live in Toronto. It has not been quiet downtown since the sixties. It is both dense and anything but quiet. Go back and wander the theater district.
Not Lucerne but Lugano. Close but start with L and you are not the first. City Victoria is 4,400 population density per sq Km while Lugano is 721 per sq. Km. But our move (if they ever finish the renos is my wife choice not mine.
No denying things are bad in Detroit, but you have to be careful about comparing statistics between a core city like Detroit and an amalgamated city like Winnipeg. You run into similar issues when comparing the City of Victoria against amalgamated Canadian cities.
“Agreed. Helps seems to be occasionally tone deaf but mostly she comes off as a pragmatic centrist, which I appreciate in a politician.”
She seemed far more tone-deaf in her first term- often spoke like she was lecturing (poorly) a class of undergrads. She’s really improved this term. Sad she’s not running again, but totally get it after all the hate she receives. No way that’s worth it.
Anyone know what 983 Dunsmuir Rd. sold for?
Geez, how full is the Victoria municipal government with crazy, incompetent political zealots that somehow people start thinking Lisa Helps is either pragmatic or a centrist?
I’ve lived in Toronto, it isn’t dense. Downtown used to close at 5pm because there was no one around.
You were originally planning on moving to Lucerne right? It’s over double as dense as Toronto/Vancouver.
Leo” Land lift is a comparatively minor problem but we wont agree since your major criteria is producing ever increasing density as a sole virtue. I am rather surprised since you crave density that you dont consider simply moving to Vancouver or Toronto where density can surround you from day one.
The increased density created over the last ten years has for many people who actually live in the city has been a definite negative in the quality of life.
The opposite is true. Broad rezoning is required to minimize land lift.
Developers love restrictive zoning because it gives them a monopoly on adding new housing supply. Missing middle breaks that stranglehold and allows small builders to create housing.
Pathetic!
So much for the idea that “purpose built rentals” will get approved quickly and in big numbers, to help with the housing crisis. All it took to kill this 266 unit Harris green/937 View project was the NIMBY conclusion that it would “ hinder access to sunlight, views and open skies.”
https://www.cheknews.ca/proposed-266-unit-rental-apartment-building-rejected-by-victoria-council-1035828/
“ A purpose-built rental building near downtown Victoria that has been in the works for five years will not be going ahead any time soon.
Victoria city councillors, following recommendations from staff, voted 7-2 in favour of rejecting Nelson Investments Inc.’s plan to build a 19-storey 266-unit rental apartment building at 937 View St. in the Harris Green neighbourhood during a committee of the whole meeting on Thursday.
Councillors had the option to refer the project back to staff, who could then continue to work with the applicant, but instead opted to reject the proposal outright. Only councillors Ben Isitt and Marianne Alto voted in favour of seeing the project referred back to staff.”
The more sensible way to go is to zone a few specific appropriate areas for townhouses rather than a blank zoning of the whole city. Some of the voices here seem to push for unlimited and endless development which I guess is great for the pocketbooks of the developers and real estate industry but rather questionable in terms of the development of the city.
Really too bad she’s not running again. She could really bring some of these changes home with one more term and some good pro-housing councilors.
I got radicalized on zoning watching a public hearing. Applied for my citizenship that night lol.
We are talking townhomes and some small multiplexes here and because of bureaucracy very few would actually get built and we can’t even send that to a public hearing. Sad.
In watching all the presentations can’t believe how many times the example of a half duplex being worth more the original teardown comes up as an argument against missing middle. How can no one grasp the concept that a brand new 2,000 sqft half duplex is going to be more than an 800 sqft unlivable teardown.
I wanted to make a video with cuts of each counselor that voted no talking to show how ridiculous they are but my video editing skills suck. Every single one is such a joke. Young said at one point people should be very scared of these popping up in their neighbourhoods and builders/designers being creative within the bylaws to make these places bigger, etc. I agree every time I walk by density I stop in my tracks from fear. Like someone one day might walk out of a townhome or small multiplex as I am walking down the street and then what. If they are a slower walker do I slow down my pace or try to pass them on the grass?
“Ironically Lisa Helps, who is like flypaper for all the haters, is actually one of the more sensible and realistic of the bunch.”
Agreed. Helps seems to be occasionally tone deaf but mostly she comes off as a pragmatic centrist, which I appreciate in a politician.
I agree, but he also doesn’t want to get called out for killing it. He insists it will come back before the election, though I doubt it. The focus has been on him because he voted to bring MM to public hearing but then flipped to a no.
As for the others against, Young and Thornton-Joe are lost causes and cannot be convinced.
Dubow hasn’t been very receptive and dismisses any evidence he doesn’t agree with as fake or collected by industry.
Isitt is very nice and listens (likely why he gets so much of the vote every time) but then cannot be convinced of anything no matter the argument that is made. He is only interested in changing zoning if it leads to non-market affordable housing.
I expect that missing middle is dead until after the election, but could be passed with one more pro-housing councilor elected. Same in Saanich.
Very disappointed in a few of our city councillors. Isitt is a useless poser. Takes his “courageous” stands on issues that are totally outside city mandate, but is a cowardly NIMBY on any useful change. Young is a NIMBY dinosaur so no surprises there. Andrew gets two thumbs down on what I have seen so far.
Ironically Lisa Helps, who is like flypaper for all the haters, is actually one of the more sensible and realistic of the bunch.
The homicide rate in Detroit is literally ten times that of Winnipeg
I always used subject to financing as my way out, back in the good old days. Never used it though, always knew I had a good deal, never over paid for a house. Even if I made a mistake I was prepared to take full responsibility.
The thing is Frank with the house inspections. If the vendors allow this on your offer to purchase, it gives you say three, four days before he does the inspection, then a couple of days after that to use that as an “excuse” for not buying. The inspector always comes up with something.
Bluesman- No shortage of lunatics I guess. Instead of complaining, they should move to other Provinces but they don’t want to put up with winter. The crime is also out of control, 4 murders in Winnipeg in one week, that’s a bad year for Victoria. Getting to be like Detroit here, maybe worse. The police here don’t want to catch any criminals until someone is severely injured or killed. Maybe that’s why I’m so bullish.
+1. Who actually expected Andrew to vote in favour of this while he’s running for mayor? He would have said goodbye to all his Fairfield NIMBY votes. The others that voted no like Isitt and Dubow literally campaigned in rental apartment buildings and promised renters more housing, so they’re the ones that should be criticized for their votes.
Frank – than how is it you seem so bullish on van isle re? Sheer lunacy? Doesn’t really reconcile with your past posts.
Thurston- The house I was referring to was in Winnipeg, a grand old “mansion “ ( not really that large but in an excellent area), and the neighbors (very wealthy) bought it to put a gazebo on the large lot. The Prairies were built on asbestos, even stucco has asbestos. We want prices to come down but make it ridiculously expensive to tear down the old homes. Another reason prices won’t plummet as everyone is expecting.
I’ve never had a house inspection on any of the properties I have bought. Don’t really trust the thoroughness or qualifications of these experts. You have to be realistic and expect to find hidden problems in the future. I just had a second bathroom renovated and of course hidden electrical and plumbing flaws were discovered and rectified ( I’ve owned the house since 1994).
Regarding the market over the last several years, I don’t understand what drives people to bid up prices on average properties to the levels we are experiencing, it’s insane. I remember when $100,000 was a lot of money for a house. Now we’re bidding hundreds of thousands over a million dollars, sheer lunacy. The most I’ve ever paid for a property is $330,000. Not on the Island either. I’ve been priced out of that market for over 15 years. Good luck crazy people.
I guess there’s no asbestos in the prairie provinces maybe just a bc thing
That was basically our math. Houses are boring but generally solid. More importantly walking distance to 3 levels of schools was a huge factor in us choosing Gordon Head. Bike to work for both of us.
“While I totally approve of enough regulation to prevent an 18 year old kid getting a job shoveling vermiculite out of a dusty attic with no protection, sometimes the regulations seem to be lacking common sense in line with the risk.”
It does seem to be inconsistent. For awhile there it was all about pre-1990 drywall, even though as I understand it, asbestos was never/rarely used in the board itself but rather in the tape and joint compound, and usually in very low concentrations. Meanwhile, you could dump old resilient flooring with impunity, which can contain very high concentrations.
Vermiculite is the real baddy because it was contaminated with tremolite. Look up the story of Libby Montana…
Undoubtedly true. But I still don’t think it’s a real world problem that will disrupt the market. A hot market is insanely tilted in favour of sellers. Lots of examples of sellers unloading questionable places in the frenzy to poorly informed buyers. This cooling off period helps level the playing field a little bit and gives buyers a chance to avoid making a huge mistake on a property. Worst case maybe the first buyer backs out, the seller pockets the penalty fee, and sells it to one of the 3 backup offers they secured. Sellers still win massively.
In a slow market there is no impact at all. Buyers already have the time to do due diligence. Buyers make offers with conditions and back out simply because they got cold feet without penalty. No reason to use the cooling off period in the vast majority of cases.
Total nothingburger.
Re: Asbestos in window caulking
Yes, I have run into that. In my case it was a huge single pane aluminum window (5’X10′) that was made in the early days of aluminum windows. Aluminum frame but window putty holding the glass in. The whole window had to be bagged, caution stickers, and transported to the dump in a closed van. In theory, you are supposed to have hepa filtered vacuums available in case you drop it. They even suggested the tyvek bunny suits while handling the window. While I totally approve of enough regulation to prevent an 18 year old kid getting a job shoveling vermiculite out of a dusty attic with no protection, sometimes the regulations seem to be lacking common sense in line with the risk. The other item that failed the inspection was a kitchen sink with black tar mastic covering it for sound deadening. The mastic contained asbestos so the same precaution for disposing of it was called for.
Thanks for all the tips, much appreciated!
So then the only way out is to sell the current house at a lower price than they originally anticipated, unless they can get another loan while renting the current house out.
Re. Salmon question
Some rambling thoughts
So much to consider with a move to a new city. But i would put the neighbourhood above the house in terms of importance. We both work from home so driving is not important. What is important is walk ability.
And being near the ocean.
Baffles me why someone would move to the coast then live in broadmead. Feels more like Canmore than Victoria. And having lived too many years in a generic car centric subdivision I would never go back. don’t get the fascination with Gordon head. Generic boxes with 8’ ceilings. Although having school aged kids changes everything. Bland and vanilla is a good trade off for schools and safety.
Don’t know much about esquimalt but seems to be a good undervalued bet. A few sketchy residents. like james bay where I live.
If I would do it again with $1.5 I would choose cook st village / Fairfield/ south oak bay. Buy a wreck and fix it up. Make it your own.
I would look for a place with a full height unfinished basement with access to all utilities. Not a slab. Zero interest in a suite. Avoid places that have seen too much home handyman finishing. I like the places that are listed as “first time on the market for 60 years”
“I meant AFTER 1975, I’d like a house without asbestos and crappy pipes/electrical. Does anyone know what year the stopped asbestos in builds in Victoria.”
Houses got a lot more “modern” in the mid to late 50s and there are lots of late 50s/early 60s houses in the core areas. Good chance the plumbing is type L copper which is the thicker stuff. There is little difference between modern romex wiring and the stuff used back then, except the ground wire is usually thinner gauge and the sheathing (not the insulation) is some kind of cloth/tar/mastic material rather than plastic. Houses from this era are typically insulated with R-7 fiberglass or rockwool batts. Finished walls are typically plaster over gypsum lath…could certainly be asbestos in the plaster but it’s not an issue if left undisturbed. The big concern in the inspection racket seems to be duct wrap and asbestos board around floor registers. Fairly easy to remove, but it can also be left alone if in good shape. Resilient flooring from that era also commonly contains asbestos either in the felt backing or in the black mastic used to glue it down.
Anyway, just something to consider. I personally like the mid to late 60s era for houses. Good chance there will be asbestos containing material, but that is a risk with any house built before 1990. And with that era, no need to worry about aluminum wiring or poly b and the build quality is typically quite good.
I don’t think you have enough experience on the ground to realize how messed up people are 🙂
The industry is wailing about how it could be abused by buyers to tie up multiple properties but I doubt this will be a real world problem. In a hot market buyers are glad to get the place, they’re not looking to back out for no reason. The Penalty for backing out ensures this won’t be done for fun and if it turns out to be happening a lot they can just up the fee
Probably because the lawyer told them it’s nuts. Lose hundreds of thousands for backing out or beg borrow or steal the difference to bridge the gap. Most people will opt for the latter because the consequences for backing out are so dire
My friend’s brother’s 1930’s character home was going to be demolished and he said we could take all the interior doors and windows prior to it being torn down. We got the doors out but after asbestos abatement, we weren’t allowed to take out the windows because of asbestos in the caulking. I’ve never heard of that before.
It’s fine. Will have zero impact but the next hot market will come around and then it’s an ok consumer protection move.
Just another thing to check off on the road to big zoning reforms which will solve the real problem.
This is stupid IMO, are there measures to help sellers in a slow or declining market? If you are dumb enough to wait until the market is red hot before deciding to buy and put in an unconditional offer as a result then that is your own fault.
Interesting, one thing to note is that my lawyer contact said being bombarded by calls of people wanting out but didn’t mention how many actually followed through. Should be interesting to see in the next couple month.
Was the often smoky/hazy skies (due to wildfires) in summer also part of your calculus?
FWIW, my place is a 1977 build: no aluminum wiring, no Poly B piping, drain tile seems to work fine (I’ve never scoped it), no vermiculite (if it was there, it was removed by the previous owner in the 1980s, which was when the attic insulation was last done).
Anyway, I hope your transition goes smoothly and welcome to Victoria!
What a joke you he whole missing middle has become, we would have been one of those small builders that built a couple out as soon as it was approved, looks like rents will keep going up, great job council!
We just had an appraisal on a bunch of 1 bed rooms we are renovating and the market rent as complete came back at 2100 plus utilities, plus parking
The appraiser is usually pretty conservative prior the the units being completed, not looking good for tenants and rental prices.
I guess in theory but in practice sellers haven’t been really been paying attention to deposit amount too much even thought in most circumstances the buyer can provide more of a deposit. I think sellers negotiating higher deposits will have a very small impact on prices, imo.
Obviously will be difficult to do with a 5% down buyer and most of the 5% is in RRSPS, etc.
First it was 1980, now they are saying 1990 for asbestos. 70s you still run into aluminum wiring, concrete drain tiles, etc.
My favorite vintage is 1990-1995 as you can find a dated house (market value supressed) but it is 2x’6” frame (wasn’t code until 2000 but I find 98% of early 90s homes are 2×6), 200 amp panel, pvc drain tiles, etc. Only thing to watch out for is poly b plumbing with poly b fittings (haven’t heard of a leak in Victoria, but difficult to insure). Gen 2 ploy b with copper crimps/clamps much easier for insurance.
Combines small town attitudes with big city problems. Visited a friend who retired to Vernon, he said he wouldn’t have considered Kelowna.
What about the others that voted no? Politicians are a reflection of the people. You have to keep in mind people against missing middle (and I know a few) aren’t commenting on reddit/facebook/etc so it makes it seem like these are “no” votes aren’t representing the people, but I think they actually are unfortunately. We leads back to being screwed on housing.
They can, but that will restrict the buyer pool. It’s the old tradeoff between risk and reward and if enough sellers do it there will be further downward pressure on prices.
Stephen Andrew absolutely getting roasted over his vote flip on what should have been a formality vote to advance to public hearing
Gonzo girl\G. Hill: thanks for the suggestions. The lower commute is certainly a priority. In days gone by I had a 50 min one way commute and it was an awful waste of time and a big drag on happiness.
Introvert: while Kelowna has great weather (early spring, baking hot summers, late fall), I struggle with the lack of variation in activities and the red neck vibe here. The amount of people who want to scream at the moon about various social issues gets really old. Victoria appeals to us as the vibe downtown is great, I really like fishing in the ocean and the whole family likes exploring islands/coast. Also…it looks like victoria has as close to zero winter as you can get in canada!
And regarding the date…I meant AFTER 1975, I’d like a house without asbestos and crappy pipes/electrical. Does anyone know what year the stopped asbestos in builds in Victoria.
Missing Middle a no go for now…wow. I have zero faith in government to help solve the housing issues but voting against this is next level we are royal screwed going forward.
If we have a slowdown/dip due to interest rates coming up might be last chance to buy. Will be in a no inventory issue within a few years again.
I’ve asked a few lawyers that do a lot of real estate volume and answer is no.
You have to keep in mind this month we will have over 800 sales (10 year average) with very low inventory. The world isn’t ending quite yet, there will be the occasional failure to complete (someone overpaid two months ago in a bidding war) here and there but that will quickly dissipate in the next 30-60 days as there are less and less multiple offers, less unconditional offers, and the market stabilizes even if it drifts down. (i.e., even when we had 500 sales per month and 5000 listings in 2011-2013 failure to complete was almost non-existent even in a buyer’s market, but a stable buyer’s market slowly drifting sideways/slightly down). Also, sellers will start negotiating much bigger deposits if it continues to dominate the news. You’ll see failure to complete in the news for the next two months and then it won’t be a topic anymore (aside from pre-sales coming up for completion later down the road where buyers are under water).
Similar to stock market right now, feels like the world is ending and my mix of CND banks, telecom, utilities, pipelines, and rail as a portfolio down 3.2% off all time peak, after more than doubling since March 2022. I really want to sell, but not brave enough to bet against the entire system. Same with my real estate, another hike coming you would think we will see a large slowdown but once again not willing to bet against the entire system which is designed to prop it up.
The news/media/sentiment right now aren’t really aligned with realty.
What I heard is that right now its not due to an appraisal issue at financing but more so due to someone putting a firm offer on a new house but now can’t get what they thought they could get on the sale of the existing house. Curious to see if others are hearing the same thing.
I suppose that is worse emotionally because you are getting hit on both ends where you “overpaid” for the new house and “lost money” on the sale of the current one.
ViceREanalyst – that’s interesting about the lawyers. I have read stories about that in Ontario, didn’t know it had reached here yet.
The Realtor I’m working with here sends me listings every day based on certain criteria, I’m sure you are all aware of the process. Well today, they sent 10 SFHs, but 5 of them are actually existing listings that have had their listing price reduced! More and more signs of the tide turning…
Frank thought this thing was going to sell for $1.8M all day, I told him to put in an offer for 100k over ask ($1.5M) and then do a quick flip. He thought it would be a waste of time for everyone with that low ball offer.
On a related note, talked to a lawyer friend at a fairly prominent real estate law firm in town, apparently getting bombarded in the past few weeks with clients trying to back out of firm offers they committed to. Marko and other industry folks, I wonder if your lawyer contacts are seeing the same thing?
Maybe they know that the feds are holding the bag for the high ratio mortgages, not them.
Our banks are certainly making tons of money according to their recent earnings and increased dividends. They don’t seem concerned about a collapse in real estate and impending mortgage defaults. Maybe they know something.
Can anyone recommend a good framing crew for new home construction? I’m acting as my own GC building my home. I know it’s hard to find trades people and everybody probably already have work fully booked for the next 2 years, but I’m patient and I can wait.
I read the below on a different Blog and thought it was interesting/relevant, so I wanted to share.
‘Residential real estate’s descent is protracted, lengthy, messy and consequential. People buy houses in a process that takes months. In the meantime rates can change dramatically (they have), valuations can tank (they are), lender appetite for risk can lessen (it has) and market sentiment can wither (it is). Buyer remorse is a thing. Central banks could pause their rate increases tomorrow (but will not) and the real estate quagmire would continue to deepen’.
SalmonHunter,
I would say my favourite neighbourhoods are the obvious ones (Gonzales, CookStreet, Fernwood, Oaklands, and yes definitely Vic West and Esquimalt). You’re probably looking for a home with around 4 bedrooms (2 kids and an office for WFH) it is sounds like which is possible with your budget, and some sweat equity to bring it up to par. Focus on your criteria walkable and shorter commutes… also I agree with G. Hill Esquimalt is gentrifying fast, and I think is still under appreciated! I currently live and own in Gonzo and if I had to pick, I would migrate that way over James Bay or say Hillside/Quadra for the same reasons already noted, but it’s also closer to the ocean, TONS of parks and less than 10 minutes from dt without the crap traffic of the west shore…
I am good with cooling off period if the 0.1 to 0.5% termination fee is paid upon acceptance and immediately released to seller if the buyer bails. This is fair and would eliminate tire kickers from tying up multiple properties.
I am assuming if you made a regular conditonal offer there would be no termination fee.
As for the rest lots and lots of real life challenges. For example, reasonable access during the 3 day cooling off period? Have fun with that with a tenanted property right now.
Getting more inventory in oak bay that’s hanging around I’m watching the same ol listings
I have been following the 2 to 4 mil houses for friends in Toronto and I might be imagining it but it seems to me that suddenly we have a lot of new listings and very few sales.
Why would it go for $400k over when it’s not even set up for a bidding war.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bcfsa-real-estate-1.6467532
This just out
Cooling period recommendation
Any news on 3809 Ascot? I predicted 1.8 mil.
not much difference between 50s 60s and 70s houses the cool thing about 70s stuff is u might get some post and beam and maybe a little bit more open concept
Re my PCS portal listings of SFH. Increasing inventory. 7 Apr – 193; 30 Apr -247; 12 May -295 & 26 May – 373 listings.
In all cases the OM were deleted as were the Solds.
I think he means before 1975, houses built in the mid seventies were crap. Ugly panelling, cheap wiring, cheap walls, everything. I prefer 1950’s and 60’s houses, far better materials and construction. I’m not sure when they started building better houses after the seventies, they should all be torn down.
Did you mean later than 1975?
Also, just curious, why the move from Kelowna to Victoria?
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/economy/interest-rates/article-bank-of-canada-50-basis-point-june-1-hike-a-done-deal-economists-say/
Salmonhunter,
Good schools AND parks AND decent pricing is a brutal trifecta. But at least until recently, I’d seriously consider Esquimalt: you’re going against traffic during commute times (both to downtown and hospitals), it’s central enough that there’s decent transit/bike access, and there are a ton of parklands.
Two catches. First, schools are subpar. To be fair, I don’t think ANY schools in Victroria are particularly good, and depending on who you ask Vic West is pretty decent (as is Macaulay french immersion).
Second catch, for some reason Esquimalt is selling at a historically unusual premium. The area is gentrifying, true. But I think that the fear of homeless people in Saanich (gorge) and Victoria (pandora) has been a greater driver: Esquimalt is now seen “safe” community . This is all mostly illusion (all of the CRD is safe, Victorians are basically clueless), but perception has impact on price.
Other thing I’d consider: figure out which hospital your wife is going to work at and base a decision on that. There are tons of options for you all over the city, and remote work is very practicable in your line of work, so focus on keeping your commutes down. An extra 30-40 minutes a day with your kids and walking access to greenery is probably more important than school options (sorry for unsolicited parenting advice).
In any event, good luck!
In the mid 2000 re bust in US, household net worth fell by $11 trillion. What matters is what it was to begin with, which was $66 trillion. So it fell by 11/66= 17%, which is significant, but not catastrophic. As wealth was still high at $55 trillion, and only fell to levels two years previous. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FL192090005Q
“……and borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry.” (William Shakespeare)
Sure they can. But to service that debt they must either rely on income, or sell off assets. The idea that the only thing that matters is net worth is fallacious. US household net worth was at a record high just before the mid-2000’s RE bust.
It amazes me to see the garbage people try to sell for a few bucks at garage sales. Sometimes hosted at multi-million dollar homes.
That CBC article is a “yawn-er”. Their headline finding is that 25% of semi-retired or retired people age 55 and higher have some type of debt (credit card, car, mortgage). Jimmy Pattison would likely be on that list, as he likely owes something to someone. And the average non-mortgage debt they found was a tiny $11,000.
This study would only alarm people that don’t understand that wealth is measured as a net, of assets minus debts. So that people with debts can still be very wealthy.
The CBC article author acknowledges that point, by adding this CD Howe expert quote at the end of his article, which deflated the entire article thesis that seniors are experiencing financial hardship.
“Without knowing more about the size of their debts relative to their assets and the size of their debt repayments relative to their incomes, it is impossible to say whether seniors are experiencing financial hardship,” he said
Some of the sellers are moving into retirement homes or into sub-basement three by six condo units. We do garage sales for fun and my guess is that about one in four people fall into one of the above two groups if it is people actually moving rather than just cleaning out. Totally unscientific.
This has been reported on for years, undoubtedly worse today.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canadians-retirement-debt-1.4547125
Hey everyone, first time poster here. I’ve been reading HHV for a few years (Leo: you do such a great job!) as we are trying to make our way to Victoria from Kelowna. We are a family of four looking to be close to good schools, transit, and parks. We would like a SFH (don’t we all?) hopefully built earlier than 1975 but that’s negotiable. Budget is around 1.5M. I’m an accountant and my wife’s a nurse, so we will both likely be working in the core ish. I’m curious if anyone has suggestions on neighbourhoods?
Thanks in advance!
Whoever- When you say sellers are moving out of the city, is there any indication where they are going. Leaving the Province, moving up Island, out of the country? I’m sure there is a mixture of all of the above but sellers have to find somewhere to live and I don’t see many affordable options out there. Nanaimo average house prices are $900,000, not much less than Victoria. With the high costs of realtor fees and land transfer taxes, a simple downsizing or relocation costs tens of thousands of dollars. I’m sure that deters many potential sellers. Is there still a steady influx of out of town buyers?
When I do my Sales to Assessment Ratios (SAR), I use the last 90 days within a two-kilometer radius of the property that just sold. I then exclude the outliers and determine the median ratio where the majority of properties are selling. If the property sells near the median ratio then I conclude that the sale price is fair and equitable relative to recent sales. Most of the time the sale price is fair and equitable, But I am seeing a trend for properties that are selling today to be slightly below the 90 day median SAR. That indicates to me that market prices have softened in the last couple of weeks. Nothing crazy or extreme just some softening in market prices.
And that matches up with the sellers that I speak with, as they seem to agree that their is more product out there to chose from and prices are not as strong as they were two months back. Which ties in with the days-on-market (DoM) which has increased slightly in the middle income bracket and more so in the upper end market.
I’m not seeing any segment of the marketplace that is taking a big hit. Most of the sellers are either down sizing or moving out of the city. Lots of investors buying new construction in the first quarter of the year because of the high rental rates which they need to qualify for their loans. That seems to have slowed down a bit.
I get the impression that rents have come down a tiny bit but they are still atrociously high. There just isn’t a good or any data base for rents that is reliable.
Probably loaded up on HELOC to help their kids buy their first house to finally get them out of their basement. Higher rates not only make their HELOC more expensive, but could jeopardize their kids ability to service their mortgage.
Back to mom and dad’s basement to pay back their parents now that they want that down payment back.
This is an odd stat. You would think that 55 and older would be in favor of higher rates. I wonder what happened, did the boomers decide to take on a bunch of debt to party in retirement after not saving appropriately?
From: https://www.cp24.com/news/nearly-half-of-canadians-are-finding-it-difficult-to-feed-their-families-amid-spiraling-inflation-survey-1.5916096?cache=kgrqcipuk
Umm- Definitely inside the floodway. Historical flooding in the Whiteshell (Manitoba-Ontario border cottage country), Northern Manitoba, highways closed all across the Province. Many farmers might not get a crop in, more food shortages. You wouldn’t know it in the city. This is the low spot in the country. After a brutal winter, a cool wet spring is a good motivator to pack up and leave. I miss global warming.
First of all people are always selling. It’s not a new phenomenon that requires investigation. In fact sales are currently below average.
Most owner-occupiers who sell are buying another property. Again, it’s not like they are disappearing. Some are moving out of town, some aren’t. I seem to recall some charts from Leo on this very topic.
Inside or outside the Red River floodway?
This is a question only a realtor might have some insight. Where are the sellers going? Are they downsizing, moving into apartments that don’t exist, leaving the Island,, moving up Island, any indication would be welcome. I could see death of a parent one good reason for selling, but some might choose to keep the property instead of liquidating it. I know a couple of my friends in Winnipeg have sold their homes and moved into (expensive) apartments. They are more readily available, lots of large blocks going up everywhere. Not very tall (4 storeys) but massive. Land on the outskirts of the city going for around 1 million an acre. Land that was basically agricultural for over a hundred years.
My instinct is that housing may be reaching a threshold where there could be a real drop in prices. Not there yet but it next to impossible to really tell where it is going at this point other than an increasing number of red flags.
Here is one for all the bears :https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/25/fed-minutes-may-2022.html
No problem with the occasional topic tangents, just that the health care situation has been discussed a number of times and tends to spiral out of control. Impact of health care constraints on migration is relevant, but proposed billing models not so much.
And the second one was about the museum and the last one on the last post was about a mass shooting in the USA. Just because you don’t see a connection between the impact of what public infrastructure construction has on the residential construction doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.
Agree with Leo. He puts up a new post with lots of good data and information, and the 3rd comment is about Healthcare.
Obviously the comments can go off on tangents eventually, but we don’t need the 3rd comment derailing the conversation…
Impacts on residential construction costs?
Note: there was an error in the Sales/assessment chart due to some sales including assessments from 2021. That’s now corrected and the numbers make a lot more sense. Sorry about the error.
Appreciate the challenges around health care but it’s off topic for this board.
I think there’s actually like at least 6 hospitals under construction in BC right now and the one in Kamloops just finished. But that $800 million can build lots of apartments to house people. Or they could set up a way to provide GP’s free clinical space and equipment so they can operate with virtually no overhead. That might be able to attract some GPs.
Our stressed “health care” system is the direct result of our population leading unhealthy habits, especially smoking and eating junk food. Also lack of exercise. The physical condition of most Canadians is pathetic and self inflicted. All due to lack of education.
Sorry for not detailing every scenario, I am sure some type of graduated scale can be implemented as people enter adulthood and working age.
Anyone know anything about this complex?
https://www.rew.ca/properties/4079633/50-2600-ferguson-road-central-saanich-bc
Who needs doctors or hospitals when we are getting a new museum.
I have gotten excellent care in the past in Rochester NY .
Did you think that over? Kids at the back of the line?
Should be two tiered healthcare depending on how long and how much folks paid taxes for.
If I thought my life was in danger because of long wait times, I’d find another country for treatment. Even treatment in Mexico would be better than no treatment here. Not one of those miracle cure clinics, an actual medical facility. I also hear Cuba has decent medical care. If you can afford it, the US provides superior care.
Our healthcare system is in rough shape.
https://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/comment-he-has-liver-cancer-and-is-waiting-waiting-for-treatment-5397348
It is a great article once again. If you are feeling poorer it is probably because you are. The only thing I question is whether downtown condos, in Victoria, will hold their value.
It will be interesting to see if there is a trend for businesses to abandon their operations in the downtown core and move further out.
Great article for reflecting undercurrent in market, can we overlay days on market data over duration ?