November: Sales slowing with season, but no relief in market conditions
Second to the spring market, the fall generally brings a resurgence in both new listings and sales to the Victoria market. This starts after labour day, and normally dies down by the end of October. The sellers that don’t manage a sale by the end of October generally de-list their properties and try again the following spring as buyers become ever more scarce closer to the holidays.
In some ways this year is no exception in that sales have declined into November and will certainly continue to decline in December. However this time it’s just as much if not more due to the almost complete lack of inventory on the market as opposed to a slackening in demand from buyers taking a break. Sales were down slightly for all property types on a seasonally adjusted basis, with condo sales remaining the strongest relative to their pre-pandemic levels.
Adding all the sales together, the drop in activity is clear. However these charts are pretty meaningless until we get an increase in inventory that will tell us the true level of demand.
How will we be able to tell when demand starts pulling back? The first sign will be in a reduction in bidding wars. Bidding wars indicate more buyers than sellers, so when they start declining we will know that the number of buyers is dropping back, even before sales decline. That simply isn’t happening yet, in fact we’re seeing quite the opposite. Single family properties sold in bidding wars just as frequently as in March, and condos were not far behind, reaching a high for the year.
Inventory continued to decline into November, but we’re definitely seeing the bottom being carved out here as we hit the effective lower bound for inventory we can have on the market.
Continued elevated levels of demand against record low supply means we continued at the effective lower bound for months of inventory as well. There were 1.1 months of residential inventory on the market, which is by far a record for November (the next hottest was last November at 2 months).
Or the same data shown in the market conditions guage. If we seasonally adjust we’re at the hottest market ever, but either way it’s close.
From a sales to new listings basis, there is also little sign of relief. Though we are down from the absolute peak about a year ago when there was still inventory to absorb, we are still strongly into the overheated market territory. This is now well beyond the length of any super-hot market we’ve seen in the historical data.
The market in the early 90s may have been similar to the one we’re experiencing now since it was similarly a period of very high rate of in-migration causing record high sales. We only have partial data for that period, with sales but no inventory figures. When we adjust for population growth, we get similar levels of sales back then. It lasted about 3 years in the early 90s, but given our low inventory that seems unlikely to be repeated.
Price pressure continues to be comensurate with those market conditions. The biggest jump was in single family homes where the median sale was 45% above the assessed value.
With prices ramping up steeply in all categories (if the single family line is off the chart for you, try a hard refresh, CTRL-F5).
It shows again and again that there’s no escaping the effect of market conditions which continue to be the best predictor of where prices are headed in the short term. When looking at interest rates I estimated we can absorb 1% without undue issue, while 2% would be problematic from an affordability standpoint. However we can also eat into that headroom simply with increasing prices which is happening now.
Speaking of where prices are headed, it’s almost time to review our 2021 predictions for the year (hint: they were bad). I recently looked at the BCREA predictions for 2022, where they expect only a 2.2% price increase for Victoria. That would require going from ~1 month of inventory to about 5 or 6 by next year. Will it happen? It’s anyone’s guess but that would be a very rapid cooling down of the market that I think is only possible with several rate increases. I remember giving a presentation in January regarding 2021 predictions, where I presented both BCREA’s and my predictions for the Victoria market. Back then they also predicted Victoria prices would increase only a modest 2.5% this year for both condos and detached, while I looked at the tight market conditions and expected a 9% gain for detached, and 11% for condos. Needless to say the market proved both of us wrong, with the actual average on track for a gain nearly double that. A decade ago commenters on this site would have been surprised to hear that the industry’s cheerleaders are in the habit of way under-forecasting the market, but again and again our post-pandemic reality has proven the ability to surprise.
“Because we aren’t?
You really don’t need look very far. History with the first nations, how the trans canada railway got built, how the trans canada highway got built. History of Asians on the west coast, Japanese internment camps, Ukrainian/German internment camps, Jewish history before WW2 – ie: we’ll take as many as we can, but none is too much.
We’re very egalitarian & tolerant of white christian people of European decent.”
We weren’t, but I would argue that today Canada is the most egalitarian and tolerant. Doesn’t mean we are perfect and have not made terrible mistakes, but I don’t know of any country without an ugly history. Name one? We are tribal animals that lived in caves just a few millenia ago.
I came to this country from a different culture and a different language and I was amazed by the multiculturalism in the school system as a child. I am still amazed by the (relative, not perfect) ability of the vast majority of this country’s diverse citizens to get along on a daily basis. What an amazing country we live in!
Good question. Many do-gooders declare the Canadian immigration system, which is based on points, to be racist. Because the immigration points system discriminates against uneducated people with no work experience – which happen to be people of color…
Here’s an article describing Canada’s immigration policy as racist, because it is based on points for education, work experience and need for the occupation in Canada.
https://www.cicnews.com/2020/06/ontario-and-quebec-premiers-deny-systemic-racism-in-canada-immigration-history-says-otherwise-0614595.html#gs.iofet5
“ Supporting anti-racism in immigration policy does not stop with having diverse applicants, immigration policy analyst Georgette Morris, told CIC News.
Though the points system aims to take discrimination out of immigrant selection, the applicant’s credentials are assessed on a scale built by the Canadian government. Human capital factors are weighted based on what the government decides is required for successful integration into the Canadian labour market. From this standpoint, the points system cannot be considered objective
Points-based systems that give preference to highly-skilled labour have been criticized for perpetuating global labour inequalities, including those that disproportionately affect women, and people from countries without the infrastructure that allows immigration candidates to meet the education and work experience requirements.
Discrimination in Canada’s points-based immigration system today can be seen in the facilitated pathways to permanent residence for high-skilled labour, even though so-called unskilled, or low-skilled labour is also in demand, and also supports the economy. For example, the tech industry has multiple avenues for foreign talent to gain permanent residence, while the agriculture and agri-food sectors are still in need of more support even though the Agri-Food Immigration Pilot program was just recently launched.
OK. You did make this statement, which led me to believe that you think that we are too white a country.
“ We’re just not a very diverse country, with 73% of people being of white European background. That’s changed considerably in the past 25 years, but it’s still a very white country.”
You still haven’t answered my question which was “is there something wrong with that [Canada being 73% white]”
Sorry dude, you’re reading something into what I’ve written there.
“And this number per se doesn’t require social engineering by do-gooders, as that intervention would itself be systemic racism.”
Curious what you are referring to as “social engineering.”
Re: 73% of Canada is white.
Is there something wrong with that?
The Bahamas is only 5% white. Is there also something wrong with that?
IMO. The racial make up of a country “is what it is”, and reflects many things throughout its history. And this number per se doesn’t require social engineering by do-gooders, as that intervention would itself be systemic racism. .
If one lives in Langford and is close to the highway entrance to Victoria, you can get to the Uptown centre in about 9 minutes. In o ther words, often in less than half the time it takes from the beloved Cook Street Village to Uptown.
First Nations/Metis/Inuit is only 4.9% as of 2016 census. We’re just not a very diverse country, with 73% of people being of white European background. That’s changed considerably in the past 25 years, but it’s still a very white country.
Sometimes but the phenomena may be caused by this:
We have this locally with Langford to Mill Bay, but it doesn’t explain what has happened on the island past the point I don’t think. I do think there are people who are driving until they qualify everywhere, and others who are retiring/cashing out or working remotely for cheaper housing and a better lifestyle. The same thing happening on the island has been happening on the East Coast as well.
Systemic racism exists in Canada, but like with any type of discrimination sometimes the pendulum swings so far the other way that there is an overcorrection and it becomes hard to have a factual discussion because it is not acceptable to mention facts that do not show overwhelming buy in for the “woke” position. Maybe just a natural part of social change, but I find it a bit stifling.
Like black people make up 3.9% of Canadians and we now have a black caucus committee in parliament and a subgroup in senate advocating for black issues and this is in the news, likely because of the US situation. But demographics and history are different here and other minority groups/issues don’t get the same attention.
The history of indigenous people in Canada has a different place for me due to the history of colonialism and legal rights, but I can only imagine there are a large number of CBC listeners who are tired of the overwhelming indigenous content that has taken over the programming. I’ve stopped listening to CBC largely because of this despite my interest in the topic. I just don’t want to hear it all the time, but the federal funding is there for this as a result of RCAP and so CBC has pivoted this way.
Now there are these people in positions, particularly academia, who are pretending to be black or indigenous I presume so that they can benefit or be on the right side of wokism. Racism needs to be brought in the open and addressed, and through the legal system too, but some of the things that go on seem really illogical.
It may be exacerbated by an increase in people wanting to move to the island (or not being able to afford Victoria) but make no mistake this isn’t an island issue. This is a Canadian issue (with exception of the prairies). Take a look at last months Teranet (scroll down) – https://housepriceindex.ca/2021/11/october2021/ – most cities have gained faster than Victoria / Vancouver in the last year. Some of this will be because the prices are cheaper but clearly there is more going on then just people wanting to live on the island. Are Hamilton, Barrie, Kingston, Sherbrooke, Moncton etc all places where old people are retiring to or remotely working from? I don’t know about those cities but i think its too coincidental that many places are up the same as the island (or more) and claiming its because of the island desirability – clearly there are larger factors at play.
I know that, it’s been reported on this forum. It’s just not a demographic mix that appeals to me at any price really. And given the highly disproportionate number of seniors, clearly a disproportionate amount of money going into the P/Q RE market must be coming from seniors.
It appears real estate developers are expanding their horizons. No flooding, no fires, no air.
Because we aren’t?
You really don’t need look very far. History with the first nations, how the trans canada railway got built, how the trans canada highway got built. History of Asians on the west coast, Japanese internment camps, Ukrainian/German internment camps, Jewish history before WW2 – ie: we’ll take as many as we can, but none is too much.
We’re very egalitarian & tolerant of white christian people of European decent.
“In 1916, that effectively excluded almost all people of color.”
So our mayor has looked back 100 years and discovered that parts of America were overtly racist. I am shocked, SHOCKED, I tell you.
If it wasn’t so disturbing it would be hilarious – how can a Canadian even mouth the words “systemic racism” when they live in a country that is the most tolerant and egalitarian that has ever existed?
In case you are of the opinion (as I once was) that the frothings and posings of the left are just a little humor to be enjoyed over morning coffee, have a look below. Society can be grievously wounded by engaging in wilfully irrational virtue-signaling.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/books/what-to-read/san-fransicko-must-read-expose-misery-caused-ultra-liberal-policy/
Just enough to cover the $500-$600 monthly pad fee. Personally I am a big fan of stretch into studio condo versus manufactured.
Mostly it was just a humor point. However, I would assert there may be a bit more nuance to the current market conditions that will make the current situation difficult to sustain. Primarily, the collapse in supply being a COVID anomaly creating an artificial view of strong demand that is fueled by credit based investors. The risk is that the investor market will likely become very fickle with increasing interest rates just as folks that delayed sales the last 2 years decide to list and take profit (likely leading to an inverse of the current supply-demand curve). Those investors that bought at peak based on cheap borrowing of down payments will likely not actualize the cash flow imagined on the revenue side, and will see increasing debt servicing cost with limited equity gained in their assets to further borrow against.
Yeah pretty crazy to see the price growth in manufactured home prices. Up 186% since 2013
Totoro: Those are rather scary numbers.
If you click on the link I posted you’ll see that everywhere up island has increased. It is not about old people with money in general I don’t think. It is probably more about people coming from other places in Canada, whether retirees, those cashing out, or remote workers. This is creating a surge of demand for a limited number of homes. The competition has been as fierce up island as it has been in Victoria and prices are skyrocketing.
Oldest population in Canada I think. Over 40% 65+. Not my cup of tea but obviously there are people with money who think differently.
I don’t recall any hard prediction in the interview. What part of the analysis do you disagree with?
My house is not on the market and at the rate the renos are going my widow might be selling it, Frankly, with Covid restricting almost everything for me it just is a lot less important. The new parts of the building are older than anything here in Victoria.
On a positive note, it did not rain today and I was feeling well enough for a short walk which means I had a really great day.
No, not a change of attitude but major delay on the renovations and prolonged negotiations with the heritage preservation. Victoria is certainly not as nice as it was eight years ago, Regardless, the wife’s family is in Lugano and as we get older family becomes more important.
Patrick, but certainly Victoria is much nicer than you probably deserve and as you sound like a focused individual it should be exciting for years to come.
Let’s hope Siddall’s analysis and prediction is as accurate as his last big one during the pandemic. You know, the one about pending collapse.
The Racist and Exclusionary History of Single Family Zoning
https://lisahelpsvictoria.ca/
Re: Up Island- checking Ladysmith listings, there are 12 SFH for sale, 6 of them are 1-3 million, the rest are $600,000-900,000. You don’t get much for $600,000. Lots of lots to build on, you just need material and tradespeople. Lots are $300,000-400,000. Even mobile homes are over $200,000.
So much for moving up island. Last month, the benchmark price for a single-family home in the Parksville Qualicum Beach area rose 35 percent from the previous year to $903,300. Six months ago it was $797,700 and 12 months ago $671,700.
http://www.vireb.com/index.php?page=20
I was thinking more along the line of improving the economic agency of women, rather than gross industrial development. Kerala India is an excellent example.
In any case, if you do get a bump in energy consumption per capita it’s a one time thing. Large families result in exponentially increasing resource demand. Until people start starving.
Great interview with Evan Siddall, headline does not do it justice.
Also pay attention to his remarks on rising housing prices creating inequality, and on capital gains taxation of principal residences.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/canada-not-in-midst-of-housing-bubble-former-housing-and-mortgage-head-1.5693417
Absolutely correct, however as social and economic development improve the energy consumption per person increase and often outstrip the energy consumption of a present third word family. And, no amount of debates or taxes is going to change the western countries energy consumption, unless we scale back our consumption, lifestyle, and population to the early 1800s or completely wipe yourself out to save the planet.
HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH AND CLIMATE CHANGE — https://www.biologicaldiversity.org/programs/population_and_sustainability/climate/
And don’t forget Marko’s favourite one: do you own a dog and do you feed it dogfood?
Impressive, and I’m about to declare you fit to point fingers at others. But can your confirm your dwelling size. Are you exceeding minimum square footage necessary for the number of people in your dwelling? If not, are you planning to downsize?
Can you tell me the selling price for 1645 Sheridan?
Shall we take this “ it is going to be long time before we leave” as a change of outlook for you, to something more like “Victoria is awesome!”?
As I recall, a couple of years ago you were waiting for renos to be done in a new place, and couldn’t get out of this “deteriorating” city fast enough, relocating to Shangri-la in Switzerland.
1607 San Juan. Listed in 2017 for just over a million which at the time I said was peak insanity wasn’t worth nearly that much. Sold the following year for $785k
Now relisted for $1.15M. 3 years of ~$3500/month rental income and $350k gain? We’ll see
They are allowed to have as many children as they like, yet the birth rate is below replacement levels. That’s the point. The key to bringing down the birth rate is social and economic development that puts women in control of their lives.
No it’s not. Reduce the growth of money supply and you will stop inflation regardless of size of government. It was central bank policies which brought inflation down starting in the early 1980’s all across North America among jurisdictions with widely varying fiscal policies.
Certainly high government spending was a problem in itself and it was attacked by governments across Canada at varying times. For example Alberta, Saskatchewan and the Federal government did not bring in policies to reduce spending until the early 1990’s under PC, NDP, and Liberal governments respectively. But high inflation had been beaten by then.
And that is exactly why I said there would need to be fewer babies born across the world. I wonder, are you suggesting that people in developed nations should be allowed to have as many children as they like while other nations are limited. Wouldn’t that be discriminatory?
I see, but there have been zero apartment/condos built in Royal Bay to date. Gablecraft is buildings 100s of “Landed Homes” SFHs https://gablecrafthomes.ca/home-styles/laned-homes/ that often have ZERO non-garage off street parking and the garages are such dimensions that you can in reality only fit one car in them. So effectively we have SFHs with 1 parking spot and a parking problem, but somehow the unbuilt apartment building that has a ratio of 165 spots to 129 units will cause the problems.
There is going to a be a pub/restaurant across the street in the commercial hub where it makes sense. Would the townhome development owners (one of the owners spoke and noted strata was against the apartments) really prefer a pub/restaurant right next to them with rooftop mechanicals, etc. ….give me a break, or across the street where it is going to be less odors, noise pollution, etc.
and guess what if the pub/restaurant in the commercial hub ends up printing money more pubs/restaurants will open in Royal Bay.
It is typical NIMBYism, just grasp onto whatever you can to oppose because you don’t like change. I remember when everyone was building condos it was the same older argument of “luxury condos,” then developers switched to apartments now it is we want commercial, extra units will cause another heat dome/more atmospheric rivers, etc.
Have the residents of Metchosin been asked if they wanted more commercial/development in Royal Bay? I would think the average Metchosin resident is pissed off about Royal Bay and the traffic/congestion it will create when finished, Royal Bay resident is pissed off about a rental apartment in Royal Bay, etc. Zero self-reflection.
@Barrister – how long have you had your house on the market now? I figured it would have sold by now.
Unfortunately, government “restraint” is a necessary part of the fight to curb inflation. Inflation was at its worst 1974-1982, but still averaged 4% in the decade after that. Kudos to Bill Bennet, his austerity programs started in 1978 and continued to 1986. Government gets bloated, someone has to do it.
Which started the price decline, but don’t forget the 1982 recession and Bill Bennett’s “restraint” program which continued the price decline despite the interest rate spike soon ending.
If it’s determined you’re buying a home only to resell it a short time later, you could be taxed on any profits as 100% taxable business income
Liberals plan to go after house flippers, but the CRA is already doing so
https://financialpost.com/personal-finance/taxes/liberals-plan-to-go-after-house-flippers-but-the-cra-is-already-doing-so
I think we’re pretty close to a similar situation on the prices side, not quite as extreme from a % basis, but other factors apply as well (we crossed the $1M mark which added hugely to down payment requirements).
In 1981 they had a combo of a huge speculative price gain + spiking interest rates that brough my affordability measure to ~70%. We’re not there today, but of course it wouldn’t take a huge rate spike to get there. It’s likely time to revisit this article though: When are high prices a bubble: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2021/02/15/when-are-high-prices-a-bubble/
“165 parking spots for 129 units. If we are truly concerned about the environment does every apartment unit really need two parking stalls?”
Lack of of sufficient (especially guest) parking is already a problem in RB.
“Yes, everyone complaining about no ground floor commercial…we will ignore that this is being built literally across the street? https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/work-begins-on-commercial-hub-at-royal-bay-where-thousands-of-homes-are-to-be-built-4690822”
I think most residents want more commercial. The neighbourhood is starving for commercial development and from what I understand very supportive of commercial developments. I don’t think enough is being put in currently and the commercial originally planned at this location was ment to be in addition to what is going in.
You are right the development needs dedicated rental units as the price to purchase has gotten out of hand and almost none exist.
Having been in the development for almost 4 years I know that everyone I have spoken with was disappointed that a restaurant/pub that was supposed to open a while back was replaced by residential.
I would like to note that I am not a part of either of the dueling RB homeowner associations nor did I go to this council meeting!!
Residents of Royal Bay against a new 5 story rental building in Royal Bay. One guy proposing they build a one story building…while he lives in a three story home in Royal Bay. This is getting more insane by the day….buy into a new development and them immediately complain about all future development.
Another application for 57 townhomes in Colwood….the most delusional opposition comments like “this will ad 80 cars and more greenhouse gases and we already had a heatdome this summer…..” Like wtf….but the global population going up 73 million last year doesn’t concern you?
Stop the Houses Build the Moat!
My friends have been looking for a few months and they are also saying that there is very little in the market by way of selection. Told them I would sell them my house if they can wait until we are ready to move. They are seriously thinking about it as a back up plan. it is a funny market since it is going to be long time before we leave.
Had a surprise today. My realtor emailed me a listings additional details today (without me requesting them) and asked if wanted to book a showing. I haven’t physically looked at or made an offer on anything this fall (because of the abosolute insanity). I said, I really didn’t see point, since I expected the listing to go well over ask (no just 10s of thousands, but 100s thousands). He seemed confused by my response and said “you need to get into making offers to see what happens”. I guess, I’m weird because the few offers I made this year, the first offer is always my best offer on a property. So, making an offer on something that I will be outbid on, in the state of the current market, just doesn’t make sense to me because when the seller comes back looking for more or saying “offers are close”, I don’t have anymore to give on that property. Hence, why would I start the process the process of looking at a property that will not be buying? I can see my realtor’s confusion because my offers on properties have differed by $100s thousands (must be thinking I have more to spend), but I come to my offer amount based on what the property is worth to me, and if it requires $100s thousands in work, l just can’t max out in the bidding process. As well, with the SFD fall off I seen this week with the number of listings just vanishing, I am guessing a lot of sellers have decided to wait until the new year leaving just the dreggs on market which are getting up bidded to insane amounts. Oh well, that’s my ramble, enjoy your weekend everyone. I think I am just putting my chances at housing in with the Canucks Stanley Cup run this year.
Can we talk about how insanely backwards the buying process is? As a recent buyer (August 2020), and without any previous experience buying a home, I was shocked by the lack of transparency and fairness. Of course, when your realtor calls the seller’s realtor, they are going to say there is multiple offers and it’s going to go way over asking. Why are the asking prices so low? As a new buyer I found the whole process so distasteful and lacking in professionalism and fairness. I’d recommend a few things:
I’m not against homeowners making a reasonable gain for owning a house, and I’m not even against flippers who add value and then resell, but I am against shady realtors and bidding tactics, lack of transparency, and bad house inspectors (I’ve spent $30k this year and drained my cash savings on things our inspector should have caught) who contribute to the problem too.
My .02c
How about you clean up your house first, before you tell other people how to live and how many kids to have. Do you drive an EV? Cycle/walk when possible? Turn down room temperature of your home? Eat local plant based products instead of meat? Avoid vacations that involve air travel?
If the answer is no to some of those, maybe it is you with your “head in the sand.” And until then, you’re in no position to be pointing fingers at groups of people you know nothing about.
Hi Leo,
I’m curious on what your thoughts are 2 years later of our current market, and your post from December 2020 – 1981: Anatomy of Victoria’s Housing Crash .
It seems our quick increase has happened in about 1.5 years like in the early 80s…and I am wondering what your overall assessment is now, with increasing inflation, and potentially the bottoming out of covid housing mania?
i/ 165 parking spots for 129 units. If we are truly concerned about the environment does every apartment unit really need two parking stalls?
ii/ Yes, everyone complaining about no ground floor commercial…we will ignore that this is being built literally across the street? https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/work-begins-on-commercial-hub-at-royal-bay-where-thousands-of-homes-are-to-be-built-4690822
It is a massive gravel pit people have purchased into, the plans will change a million times before everything is finished. For example, https://www.vicnews.com/news/new-branch-of-royal-bc-museum-to-be-built-in-colwood/ Not to mention trends and technology also change. If full self-driving cars actually become a thing (not a far-fetched idea) are we still going to require more than one parking spot per unit?
In my opinion, whatever the previous zoning was 5-story building makes sense here. It is adjacent to a high school (unless you argue that staring at a building during physical education will impact students overall health)/townhomes (three stories+6/12 roof). Across the street is another townhome development (three stories+6/12 roof). Across the other street tenants will have a large commercial hub for groceries and other amenities they can walk 2 minutes to and not have to use their cars.
There is literally one SFH that looks at this development. If not here, then where?
Reality is if this was commercial then people would complain about noise/traffic from commercial. Commercial development has way more car movements per hour versus residential. There are also very few rentals available in Royal Bay as the vast majority of homes don’t have suites so having a couple of apratment buildings is a plus in my books. God forbid if 129 people/families who can’t afford $1.2ish million for a new house in Royal Bay have a stable option to rent in Royal Bay.
Here you can see how insane a 5 story building looks next to 3.5 story townhomes -> https://goo.gl/maps/GjcepRFZsvoV5W4B9 (highschool in background).
@James there are still too many people regardless. 8 billion apex predators, which are predators that have a signifcant impact on their environment, is wayyyyyyyyyy too many. We have known this for a long time, but people are more concerned with personal goals than the greater good. And good luck telling people you cant have kids even though it is stupid and irrational in 2021.
“Residents of Royal Bay against a new 5 story rental building in Royal Bay. One guy proposing they build a one story building…while he lives in a three story home in Royal Bay. This is getting more insane by the day….buy into a new development and them immediately complain about all future development.”
You do realize that where this 5 storey building is being built was originally marketed as a single 1 storey restaurant. There was even a groundbreaking event with the previous mayor and council. What most people in the area are pissed about is the bait and switch. A one storey restaurant has morphed into two 5-storey buildings with very limited commercial and insufficient parking.
China’s fertility rate is 1.7, Canada’s is 1.5, U.S. 1.78
Anything under 2.2 is a dropping population. Why would the need a law if they’ve met their goal? Even India is now below replacement level. The majority of the places growing in the world right now are in Africa.
\But Freedom are you not still breathing? lol.
Reduce population is not just about reducing births, but not to artificially prolong lives. Personally I wouldn’t want to live without my independace and my marbles.
Deb: While you are right about the key being population control, you are also correct that the politicians will never do anything about it.
And we will produce more pollution. The only solution is to reduce the population and thereby the demand for all resources. Fewer babies born across the world the faster the earth will heal. I can’t imagine any political party having the nerve to do what the Chinese did with the one child law and even they have revoked that now.
It’s going to get very painful for many people but hey the couple living in the mansion will stick their heads in the sand and proceed as normal.
“China producing 17x more pollution that Canada that probably has nothing to do with out weather events.”
If we stop overspending or bring “our” manufactories back to home, these developing countries will produce way less pollution.
I occasionally write to councillors in support of certain infill projects. I always make a point of reminding council of all the apocalyptic NIMBY predictions that HAVE NOT come true.
Just one example. Cook Street Village is nicer than ever despite the massive “high rise” (4stories) at Cook and Oliphant that was going to blot out the sky and release the hounds of hell.
That’s just crazy. To the extent those events were climate change related (heat wave almost certainly, rainfall possibly) it should if anything be an argument FOR density and more compact forms of living. However we have seen time and again NIMBY’s seize the lamest arguments (the trees, the views of Sooke Hill, etc.) it doesn’t surprise me. Where it gets really worrisome is when councilors buy into this nonsense….
Based on the council meetings across Greater Victoria I’ve seen recently it would appear the heat wave and recent rainfall is going to be a common argument against any sort of density going forward. Of course, China producing 17x more pollution that Canada that probably has nothing to do with out weather events.
There was a sooke councilor recently that said she smoked a bunch of crack and thats why she doesnt show up to council meetings. I believe she is still in that position lol. As Patrick mentioned, the councilors are often worse lol
Agreed. And it’s not only NIMBY residents. The councilors are often worse. Relying on irrelevant points about climate change and the natives’ “traditional territory “ to deny reasonable variances and permits. Frightening.
It’ll ruin the character of the neighbourhood Marko.
We are soooo screwed on housing -> https://colwood.civicweb.net/Portal/MeetingInformation.aspx?Org=Cal&Id=3015
Residents of Royal Bay against a new 5 story rental building in Royal Bay. One guy proposing they build a one story building…while he lives in a three story home in Royal Bay. This is getting more insane by the day….buy into a new development and them immediately complain about all future development.
Another application for 57 townhomes in Colwood….the most delusional opposition comments like “this will ad 80 cars and more greenhouse gases and we already had a heatdome this summer…..” Like wtf….but the global population going up 73 million last year doesn’t concern you?
Re insurance I had a quote recently for $1,900 with 10k deductibles and earthquake. Removed earthquake and increased deductibles to 25k and quote dropped to $1,300.
Russ McCarthy from Barnes and Company is an excellent inspector especially for new homes. That all being said I am a bigger fan of inspection ahead of the various warranty deadlines, in particular the 5-year envelope warranty. I always recommend to my buyers to have the home inspected at at 4.5 year mark.
Personally I would also lead towards a one-year inspection versus a pre-possession deficiency but each to his own.
This is another great tool for buyers of new construction -> https://www.bchousing.org/publications/Residential-Construction-Performance-Guide.pdf
DAd
Not sure that its the river overflowing or low lying areas that accumulate the rain and has no where to go in those areas. Lot of low lying areas in the Duncan area .
“The river is not the issue.”
How so? Parts of East Duncan, Cowichan Tribes and North Cowichan are built on a flood plain.
Matthew the river is impacted by the Lake. Most properties on the river and lake are built high enough to deal with flow. Lake not even as high as two years ago. Youbou and lake cowichan have always receive massive downpours every year. 3 to 4 times what Duncan gets. Other properties in neighborhoods in Duncan and NC will have issues unless better infrastructure is put in place to deal with increased rain in low lying areas. The river is not the issue.
On that topic, I saved ~47% on insurance by doing some shopping around. I noticed that our coverage included things like theft against the condo corporate office and stuff relating to employees of the condo corp. We have no condo corp. I called and emailed asking why we had to pay for insurance for things that literally do not exist and was told it was a standard template and could not be avoided. They were wrong. I still don’t know if they were lying or incompetent but they were certainly at least one of them. A new insurance company found proper coverage that’s for condos with 5 units or less and there’s no coverage for a non-existent corp. The commission is actually worse (25% vs 20%) but we saved SO much money.
Does anyone else know of a home insurance company that has a half-way decent commission? Anything below 20%. It’s outrageous the amount of money that isn’t going to actual insurance. That commission is charged every year even if no work or changes were made. It’s insane.
Hey there, anyone have any recommendations for a home inspector to accompany my partner and I on a pre-possession deficiencies walkthough?
Amazing post! I would assume that demand would cool during the winter months. Doesn’t look like the case.
I’d love to hear your thoughts on how the flooding would impact properties. My guess is that areas bordering rivers would now have a risk of flooding factored into the price – eg. Cowichan River. I’m also scared that strata fees would spike (again). That said, I forecast demand would lessen for the new oceanfront developments and increase for those further inland.
145% on median sale to assessed value is incredible. Leo do the stats you have access to show how many bids each property gets or is that not something VREB records? Someone at my work recently put a home on the market and had 17 offers. I would think there is a correlation between average offers per home and price escalation. Anyway thanks for the write up.