Sept 9 Market Update
Weekly numbers courtesy of the VREB.
| September 2019 |
Sep
2018
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Sales | 130 | 533 | |||
| New Listings | 311 | 1165 | |||
| Active Listings | 2827 | 2646 | |||
| Sales to New Listings | 42% | 46% | |||
| Sales Projection | — | ||||
| Months of Inventory | 5.0 | ||||
No great change in the market in the first week of September. Sales ticking along somewhat faster than this time last year (+5%) and new listings coming onboard at an unchanged pace. Mortgage rates are substantially lower than they were at this point last year, there is more selection in most market segments, prices are roughly unchanged, and buyers have had an extra year to figure out how to pass the mortgage stress test hurdle. All that has certainly brought a bit more interest to the market, and as mentioned this has mostly come on the detached side and further the lower end of that market.
If you’ve been looking since last year, you have additional selection everywhere except the lower third in the price range of houses where there were 17 fewer properties available for sale this August compared to a year ago. Coming off historically low inventory levels and given the fact that that lower third encompasses houses up to a hefty $800,000, that’s not a great development for house hunters. The condo market has not seen the same increase in activity, with more resale inventory (not counting new units) and essentially flat sales.
We’re less than two months to the next federal election, but even if the Conservatives take over, I don’t think there will be much change to housing policy in the country. The trend towards regulatory tightening has been in place long before Trudeau, with CMHC and OSFI each taking many steps since 2008 to de-risk the credit market. Outside of Sheer giving some lip service to the mortgage industry about making minor tweaks to the stress test, everyone seems to agree that the current regulatory environment is prudent and has (so far) moderated an out of control market. The big wildcard is the economy. Will it continue to run strong, keeping people optimistic, employed and buying?
Note: If you’re having trouble with the site showing old content, please clear your browsers cache. I’m not sure what is causing it but have disabled caching for now and clearing the old cache seems to make it work again.
I couldn’t believe it myself as he is in his mid 40s that does the ride in 45 minutes down, and 70 minutes up after a long day at work. He take the E&N Rail Trail part of the way down that is around 40 km, and slightly longer route up to lessen the ascent. (I’ll check with him for the route the next time I see him).
You don’t have to ride the Malahat since there is the 19 km Sooke Hill Wildness Trail that run from Shawnigan lake to Langford.
New post, on amalgamation: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2019/09/11/no-amalgamation-its-not-all-bad/
Sure, there’s lots of anti-development sentiment (and half the time it’s from me!), but the corridor is already developed. The only things we would need to “develop” would be overhead electricity cables and a number of small stations. I don’t think that’s impossible. I mean, we almost have sewage treatment online! Who would have thunk it?
I don’t think so. BC Transit or the CRD could run the commuter rail line. If we can do buses just fine in an unamalgamated region, we can also do trains.
The way to work would be alright if you don’t mind the getting run over on the Malahat part. I’m a year round cyclist and so is my wife but that’s ten kinds of nuts
That was my immediate thought too. How does he get home? It might be possible to commute down from Shawnigan on a bike and keep it reasonable but no way he is biking up the malahat home in less than 2hrs unless he is in Olympian like shape.
He cycles from Shawnigan lake??? Hard to believe. Wouldn’t the way up take about 2 hours?
Yeah I think properties on Langford along the goose are reasonably attractive for that reason.
Car commute will only get worse. Population is growing faster than roads will get improved.
Bus priority lanes mean bus is faster than driving anyway. Hard to imagine why majority still drive
At least. I was curious as to how the Trio gravel pit development in Cordova Bay was going. Well… still not. Since 2015 they’ve been working with the community to come up with something acceptable. Looks like the CBA has pushed for another redesign.
@Barrister
this is the closest thing that i came across regarding construction in a region .. but dont know any thing that is very localized
https://www.workbc.ca/Labour-Market-Information/Regional-Profiles/Vancouver-Island-Coast#this-region-industries-sectors
I have asked this before but does anyone know how many jobs there actually are in Victoria not including the housing construction jobs? Is there any breakdown of jobs by category?
well our biggest export is citizenship .. some one needs to have housing
good luck with that .. not until another 3 generations of planning in greater Victoria area .. still to much anti development sentiment here .. unless there is a mandate from the province o.. this will never happen .. and you need to amalgamate the stupid municipalities first
Not convinced there is a real relationship here, but interesting graph
https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/1171573403763036167?s=20
You will be only one of a few passengers. Ferry service from Colwood to Esquimalt has been tried several times before and failed due to costs and lack of users. So, I don’t think it would work if they extended to downtown service.
https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/ferry-sailings-to-cfb-esquimalt-end-as-bridge-closes-perfect-storm-for-commuters-1.109141
I still can’t believe that’s what places are going for out in the West Shore.
The new Douglas and Trans Canada Highway priority bus lanes seem to be helping a bit:
https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/buses-between-west-shore-and-downtown-see-jump-in-ridership-as-trip-gets-faster-1.23932788
Hopefully, priority lanes spanning the entire distance will someday come to fruition, which seems to be the long-term goal.
And/or we could always revitalize the E&N just from the Vic West side of the Johnson Street Bridge to Westhills.
I’m envisioning something like Calgary’s CTrain:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CTrain
Sure, it would cost a boatload, but when you consider that Victoria residents would use the service from now until forever, why shouldn’t we?
There are several residential building projects along the Hwy from Millstream Rd to Westshore Pkwy that will add a couple thousand homes to the area, therefore traffics will surely get worst during rush hours in the near future.
Westshore RE is expensive compare to the rest of Canada, but it still is more affordable than the core. Everyday essentials in the Westshore are within walking distance or 5 minute drive with out the hectic core traffics, and unlike the core there are ample of cars parking everywhere.
Many people do commute to work by bike and it is just as quick or quicker than public transportation or personal cars. One of my coworker commute to work from Shawnigan lake to Esquimalt daily. His commute by bicycle (not electric) 5 minute different than a coworker who drives and they live less than 100 m from each others.
Electric bike would definitely be the quickest mode of transportation, and much more environmental friendly than personal ICE, EV, or public transportation.
“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.”
Renter-
I don’t live in Langford yet but we’re likely moving there in the Spring. I go to Langford twice a wk though with traffic, and also from speaking to friends who commute, yes it’s like that every day especially Sept-May when people are working and kids are in school. I think the overpass will help alleviate some of the traffic but it will still be bonkers after completion.
When we move, I’ll be either working 7-3 to avoid some traffic, or will be carpooling. Really hoping for an HOV lanes like Vancouver that will allow motorcycles, then I’d ride in to work. My spouse takes the bus. This will all get screwed up too because we’ll have 2 kids in daycare at some point, and I don’t know where that will be / what hours.
The commute headache is just the icing on the cake for the run down 600k SFH’s out there. Yeck. At least I’ll be on parental leave for a bit so won’t have to deal with it right away.
If anyone actually starts running a ferry service from the Westshore to downtown I will be the first to buy an annual pass.
Good point. 5-year bond low was Sep 3 at 1.14 and its shot up to 1.44 today (Sep 11).
(1 year yield of 1.71, so still inverted, as 10 year yield is 1.44)
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkca-05y?countrycode=bx
Lol. Iphone users can’t help but use safari, there is no other choice. Apple enforces it. You might be sitting there thinking you can use another browser, but all it is is a skin.
Observation here and I guess a question or two for those who commute from Langford to downtown. Yesterday morning, I left out from Broadmead headed for Duncan. Had the usual slowdowns near Interurban / Wilkinson and again near VGH off Helmcken. Got on Hwy 1 at about 8:55am and as I’m moving along on a mostly empty road, I noticed that the opposite direction headed in to the city was backed up all the way past the Millstream Rd (Costco) exit in Langford. Here are my thoughts as I passed this backup: Is this normal? How could house values be as high as they are in Langford/Colwood/Westshore? How many commute by bike? I would definitely own a class 1 e-bike if I had that daily commute just to get downtown faster.
Yes, but they tend to fall more slowly.
Perfect. What a frikkin’ brilliant plan.
Bond yields spiking up again. If you want the lowest mortgage rate, best to lock in now.
Correction.
I got Midori crossed wired with Epic browser (it has been a while since I used these browsers) . Midori, and Dolphin uses WebKit engine, while Epic is Blink based.
Hey- I agree with James Soper!
Another loyal Firefox user here.
Chrome is the worst browser you could use for privacy, or the good of the web.
W/ firefox you can get easy ad blocking (u block origin) and out of the box tracker blocking. Also it’s faster than Chrome now. At the very least if you have to use a chromium based browser use Brave or Chromium itself instead of Chrome.
Fine then. RE is lame anyways.
If we’re going to talk about computers instead, here’s one of the most amazing, and frightening demonstration of contemporary visual effects capability within motion pictures.
Most of you have seen Stanley Kubrik’s 1980 film, “The Shining”.
Do you recall the scene where Wendy finds Jack’s endless essay, “All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy”, which culminates in her hitting him on the head with the baseball bat?
Well, here is that scene redone, where Jim Carrey’s face is substituted for Jack Nicholson’s.
Wow…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZRUZzZPGto
Different OS’s – MacOS on desktop and iOS on iPhone. Safari has not kept up on security particularly on the desktop platform. As for Chrome – definitely not the gold standard if one values their privacy and ability to control details. On my iPhone I use Brave and on my Mac desktop – Firefox.
Short answer: IMHO, in order of important.
Opera, Chromium, Edge, Google Chrome, Firefox.
Long answer:
For the majority of the public Google Chrome is the gold standard, because (V8 JavaScript, Blink) Chromium based browsers pretty much taken over the bulk of the market share. Therefore, alternative browsers such as Microsoft Edge, Opera, Midori, Brave, etc… are based from Chromium (the standard browser). Other decent non Chromium based browsers still around are Firefox (Gecko/Mozilla) , and Safari (WebKit/Apple).
Windows users might want to stick with Edge over the old clunky Internet Explore (Trident/Microsoft), or try the alternative Google Chrome that come with data collection (pseudo spying software) similar to Microsoft.
Mac/Iphone users might want to stick with Safari that lack some features but quick on native hardware.
None tech savvy Android users may want to stick with Google Chrome.
For me, the alternative browsers that worth using are Opera, Chromium, and for older hardware Opera Mini.
Opera is very fast, use little resources with excellent security and privacy, that I personally use for banking and all important tasks on my Windows desktops and laptops. Opera Mini (Presto) is still in use on my 5 year old Samsung Galaxy Tab S to speed up an overload website with graphics, email, and online shopping.
I still occasionally use Firefox on my Windows and Linux boxes. While Chromium and Opera are the exclusive browsers.
My partner exclusively use Edge, and occasionally Google Chrome. And, I have steered her to exclusively use Opera for banking.
Thought this paper was quite interesting explaining the math behind housing developments and what goes into the go-no-go decisions to build them: http://ternercenter.berkeley.edu/uploads/Making_It_Pencil_The_Math_Behind_Housing_Development.pdf
I linked a site that explains how to clear the cache above.
https://clear-my-cache.com/windows.html
Barrister, It’s likely that you just want to clear “cookies” and not everything in your cache. Cookies are little files that sites write to your hard drive, so that they can remember things next time you visit by reading the cookie they left behind. (Such as the last time you visited HH forum and what page etc)
By the way, if you’re not using Chrome, simply switching to google chrome would solve the problem (since it wouldn’t have the “bad” cookie if you weren’t using it), and it’s considered the best browser out there by far https://netmarketshare.com/
How does one clear a browser cache? I have windows 8. Sorry, I am old and obviously not computer savvy; any help would be appreciated.
Great information – I appreciate your updates!
I’m not sure if one could flock off a micro/small house on a 20’x100′ lot for a million+ if the builder manage to get enough variants from Oak Bay to built on such a lot. My understanding is most residential buildings must have 1.2 m (4′) clearance on each side of the lot (leaving 12′ wide for frontage), and more on the front and back.
As expected.
And, the other wildcard is that how the government and banks are going deal with mortgage fraud?
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/millennials-twice-as-likely-to-lie-about-income-survey
Millennials twice as likely to lie about income: survey