De-seasonalized: Months of Inventory
Continuing our discussion of the seasonal factors in real estate, this week I’ll look at the primary metric that tells us the overall condition of the market and whether it is tilted in favour of buyers or sellers.
This metric – months of inventory – is simply how many months it would take to sell all properties on the market at the current sales rate. MOI = monthly sales / inventory. You’ll see the metric “sales to active listings ratio” referenced a lot in other places which is the exact same thing but inverse. I much prefer months of inventory since I find it much easier to visualize 8 months of inventory than a 12.5% SALR. A balanced market is generally regarded as around 6 months of inventory with lower values indicating a sellers market and higher values a buyers market.
Months of inventory isn’t as highly seasonal as sales, because the decline in sales in the fall and winter gets partially cancelled out by the decline in inventory in the same period. However it is still consistently higher in the fall and winter months than in the spring. Just like last time with sales, when you graph it it’s still pretty lumpy and a 12 month average creates a smooth but lagging indicator.
If we apply the same technique to extract seasonal patterns out of the months of inventory, we get a more responsive indicator.
I’m not entirely happy with the noisy signal between 2010 and 2013 as the market was cooling. A similar thing happened with the sales data during that period which even after seasonal factors were removed showed significant variability. One possible reason is that this data includes all residential properties which consists of the condo and single family markets that aren’t always in sync. In the future I’ll dig a bit deeper to see if focusing just on one property type makes it smoother.
Still, there are a few things to note on the chart.
When we look at the entire market in context, it is still relatively active out there. While it has cooled a lot from 2016, we are a long way away from how slow it was 5 years ago when we had more than twice the months of inventory. Of course this is for all properties and single family is a little slower while condos are a little more active than the charted data.
Given this, it’s surprising that prices have held steady so far this year. Preliminary single family prices look quite weak in December so may even end the year with a small decline while condo prices may finish somewhat up. From historical data we can see that prices generally increase until we get to higher than 6 months of inventory, so while it seems that the shock of the stress test has thrown the market for a loop and halted price appreciation temporarily, I believe we will need to get to higher months of inventories to see sustained price declines.
New post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2018/12/17/dec-17-market-update-and-the-top-comments/
CMHC bonds carry a Crown guarantee and have the same rating as bonds of the GoC itself. I would say the US junk market has some relevance to the big picture, but not to Canadian Crown debt.
Scary stuff. Maybe why BOC has bought CMHC Bonds for first time ever?
The Bond Market Has Frozen: For The First Month Since 2008, Not A Single Junk Bond Prices
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-16/bond-market-has-frozen-first-time-2008-not-single-junk-bond-prices
Along with Amy, who posted this, I would also be interested in a real estate lawyer name, as I know someone who accepted an offer will need to do the paperwork. However, this brings up a point I never thought about, which is real estate lawyers negotiating. I guess maybe with commercial deals?
I don’t know anyone with a SFH sale where the lawyer did anything more than make sure that the documents were legal and that the clients understood them.
QE4 ain’t happening any time soon until long after the shit has hit the fan. They are still unwinding QE3 by $374 billion so far. By then the market will be on its knees and beyond any fast recovery as credit will be clamped like a vice.
Reminds me of this scene:
https://youtu.be/WLpe2qHC1Qw?t=61
“Nothing bad ever happens to the Kennedys!”
Wow, BC had seven percent GDP Growth (nominal) in 2017. And six percent growth in employee compensation. Best year since 2006!
Housing starts slowing, from huge levels in 2017 back to 2016 levels.
https://www.central1.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2445-BC.pdf
“nominal GDP growth came in at 6.9 per cent for 2017. Estimates of total employee compensation rose 6.1 per cent, reflecting the strong expansion in employment and higher wages, while corporate profits rose 19 per cent.”
And all this growth happened even though housing investment was flat. Other sectors like exports, industrial projects etc. accounted for the 7% growth
“Investment in non-residential structures jumped 30 per cent and drove growth in economic output. This increase was attributed to the oil and gas industry’s construction of the Saturn Compressor Facility Expan- sion and Towerbirch Expansion projects in Dawson Creek, as well as the Ridley Island Propane Export Terminal in Prince Rupert. Government capital invest- ment increased sharply by 24 per cent from 2016. Inventory accumulation also added to growth, while residential investment remained unchanged following a 15 per cent gain in 2016.”
A friend of mine and his neighbor are considering putting their properties up for sale to the local Victoria development community (the land has been re-designated to 6 stories). Anyone have a great real estate lawyer referral? Looking for someone with lots of experience who could lead negotiations, etc.
So many opinions, so little time. I have bits and pieces of tree all over my backyard. If there is drastic drop in condo prices it might make for an interesting situation with the pre-sales.
For those of you who recall my recent post about the apparent flip-flop of Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper, it now appears another notable Canadian housing “bull” has become bearish in a rather dramatic way.
“A lot of good things can happen,” writes Benjamin Tal, in his most recent note. “Maybe the pipeline issue will be resolved, maybe business investment will pick up dramatically, maybe the US and China will become friends again, and maybe the housing market will turn a corner and….maybe pigs will fly.”
“With home sales in Toronto and Vancouver falling by 15 and 43 percent year-over-year respectively in November, the housing market is far from ‘stabilizing’ as the Bank of Canada is suggesting,” he writes. “In fact, we are in the midst of an adjustment in both markets with the high-rise segment of the market the next shoe to fall.”
Indeed: Markets don’t “stabilize” unless they’re at a peak, or a trough. They either trend up – or they trend down.
https://www.livabl.com/2018/12/economist-thinks-canadian-housing-market-heat-next-year-pigs-fly.html
@ Local Fool https://househuntvictoria.ca/2018/12/13/de-seasonalized-months-of-inventory/#comment-53477
It is interesting to see how GE fiasco will play out in the near future, and will KPMG be reprimanded for helping with cooking GE books?
On a related note, for now BCE, EIF, and EMA looks quite enticing.
Of course, that would be significant. It’s a hypothetical outcome at this point, but the fact that you are thinking about this and wondering where it all goes, was kind of the point of my posting it.
I think more QE would grow imbalances further (including RE), but they may think it’s the “least bad” option. Some policymakers in Oz have stated they’d be willing to print like crazy if need be.
I don’t know. If we get to the point where there’s so much paper flooding the world, people may start wondering what it’s worth. But the contemplation of doing this all over again is not a good sign; quite the contrary, that’s IMO indicative of systemic sickness. I don’t want to take the medicine anymore than the next person, but I suspect that’d be better than what might happen if we just keep printing into oblivion.
No. If you want to comment on it, please watch the video and form your own perception.
Yes, and can you paraphrase it for me too. How bad is the inversion of 2 year and 5 year rates when it is currently not even happening ?
Canada 2 year 2.02% https://m.ca.investing.com/rates-bonds/canada-2-year-bond-yield
Canada 5 year 2.04 %
https://m.ca.investing.com/rates-bonds/canada-5-year-bond-yield
The strength of that signal at predicting recessions is when there is a short term yield (1-2 year)inverted with a long term yield (10-30 years)
Here we have a short with a short/medium which wouldn’t be a strong indicator, and doesn’t appear to be happening anyway (btw there was a similar inversion in short term us bond rates a few weeks ago but that was short lived too. Let’s wait and see if the Canadian one comes back in a sustained way)
LF – Can you paraphrase the whole Saretsky video rather than outlining simply that the press may not be accurate? What I got from the same video is: Bond cures inverting indicating the stop of interest rate hikes. Since there is not much room to go down in interest rates, QE 4 may be in play soon. The need for the stress test will be over and affordability will not be challenged allowing all the maybe able to get a mortgagees to now be able to get it. All the Bear arguments re: Housing and interest rates are being disputed in this video. Its the first video I saw but I agree .. if we get more QE… All hard assets go up and yes , real-estate is a hard asset. More Money supply is significant and something to be considered in all discussions!!
Steve Saretsky is without a doubt my favourite sexy realtor-pseudoeconomist.
–
This most recent video from Steve Saretsky is interesting. He starts off talking about the recent 2/5 bond yield inversion, but then goes into the BoC’s recent purchase of Canadian mortgage bonds – what it means, what it accomplishes, what it implies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ZhMy95vWUk
It is very important to understand this sort of thing if you want to understand what regulators are actually thinking and doing – because you won’t if you simply read their press releases. You must remember that their information for mass consumption is primarily designed to influence your perception to the upside, more than it is to inform you.
When you take a moment to understand and, take a look at the proverbial “man behind the curtain”, a different picture for discussion and inquiry often emerges.
My apologies, guess I did own it for a while 3 yrs ago. Sometimes can’t remember what I did a week ago…
And yes, the mid-cycle lull ends soon. If anyone wants a better understanding of this time-honored cycle, here’s a short explanation of the when and why.
https://deliberatelivinguk.wordpress.com/2018/10/29/the-18-year-property-cycle/
We must be coming up to the annual prediction of the housing market. A fun way to chase away the winter doldrums.
According to you, you have:
“I checked my account and I picked up GE just above 20, Paypal at 30 and Celgene at 100. I missed TD by about 10 cents… I hate it when you miss that close!”
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2015/08/21/will-traffic-improvements-affect-prices/#comment-1354
And again,
“…you don’t need to worry yourself about my other holdings in the debt & equity of companies like CIBC, GE, Celgene, Exxon, Phillips66, Priceline, Microsoft, Wells Fargo et al”
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2015/10/28/market-update-oct-26th/#comment-2913
And there are other, more recent examples of you touting GE, which you mysteriously fell silent on after it tanked. Now of course, you “have never owned” it. How is that flying car purchase coming along? You buying up some RE too during this “mid-cycle lull”, given the soon to be, “peppy” gains?
I remember some GE pumping myself….
Let me refresh your failing memory Mike.
Mike says 1 year ago:
“and btw, GE shot up for months after I suggested it…hmm, thx for bringing that one up, starting look somewhat interesting again)”
Interesting at $20 ? ..hmm….only went up $2 after the big buy call then tanked.
That would create a distorted picture.
Judging an economy based solely on CAD USD forex pair is misleading. The USD usually rises or falls against all currencies at once. This is not reflective of the economy in each of those countries.
Because, other than against USD, the CAD has been flat or outperformed any other currency over last 5 years.
Over last 5 years (dec 2013 to Dec 2018) , the currency markets have seen a rise in USD against everything.
USD dollar global index up 21% against basket of currencies. https://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index
CAD is down 20% vs USD over that period, but is flat or up compared to other currencies.
CAD is
– flat against EURO, AUD
– up 3% against GBP
– up 15% against JPY
Sure Jan… I mean Mike. 😉
Hey, I was the one warning people where to get out this year, and have never owned GE.
I figure Dow gets to ~27k before decent correction. (got to 26960)
I’ve been telling people all year to start moving from paper assets to hard assets for this coming decade.
Just like when Michael said he gauranteed GE was a slam dunk and to load up big at $30 and now its $7. I believe there were several others too like DB at $12 was a steal, now $8.
Hawk,
I dismiss many of your lines as throwaways – but this – pure gold!
When Rosenberg and others are sounding alarms, it’s time to start buying.
October 4, 2012
However, top economists including Robert Shiller and David Rosenberg are increasingly sounding alarms that the Canadian housing market is the next bubble and its about to burst. …Moreover, this comes at a time when the nation’s economic outlook has become uncertain.
https://business.financialpost.com/business-insider/everything-you-need-to-know-about-canadas-housing-bubble
LeoS, I have an idea for a new graph if you have the time and the data.
For the past few decades, could you graph the median Victoria core SFH price with the median household income?
Everyone is talking about how detached home prices are relative to local incomes, it would be interesting to see in graph form, how it has fluctuated over time.
Patrick,
You must have missed Rosenberg yesterday. It’s not a pretty picture with limited upside. Maybe you didn’t watch the previous video I posted playing out all the charts showing things are getting very dicey for the new year and far from bullish. Solid info from an economist and a fund manager who don’t pump.
A trillion in a decade is almost a massive doubling.
Risk of 2019 recession ‘higher than a lot of people think’: Rosenberg
High Canadian debt levels will make it more difficult for Canada to deal with a looming global recession in 2019, according to Gluskin Sheff + Associates chief economist and strategist David Rosenberg.
Canadians currently owe about $2.2.-trillion in total debt, up by nearly a trillion dollars in just the last decade, Rosenberg said. As interest rates rise, Rosenberg warned that higher debt servicing costs could shave as much as 75 basis points off Canadian 2019 GDP growth.
Not sure if there’s many mainstream econ forecasters that would say anything worse than “moderate slowing of growth”. It’s not that it’s automatically wrong, it’s just not credible one way or another. In one example related to housing, here’s a (reposted) series of 2006/2007 quotes from then Chief Economist and Senior VP of the National Association of Realtors (US).
To economists, it’s never anything other than a “soft landing”, a “moderation” or a dynamic of “excess capacity”. The soft landing quote in the context of housing is especially funny as globally, there’s almost no examples of a “soft landing” happening. It’s more a question of how hard the “thud” is at the end. The more debt there is, well, you know the rest.
Patrick: I am just passing on what i am hearing from the old boys network. As to the stats for GDP growth try converting those numbers into USD and a somewhat different picture emerges.
I dont personally have any strong views on the Canadian economy and frankly dont have a horse in this race since all of our investments are outside Canada. There are always bears and bulls as anyone reading this blog well knows.
What i guess I am reporting is that there is a marked change in sentiment amongst some very smart and knowledgeable people. What distinguishes this from just the usual chatter is that they moving their own personal capital out of Canada. Not suggesting that they are right but it might be prudent to check ones assumptions.
There are always Bears on Bay Street. As you likely know, the street was originally named Bear Street (1700s) because of sightings of real bears and name subsequently changed.
They’ve been worrying through the last 5 years straight as well, and that’s taken us to (Since 2013), 18% growth in Canadian GDP per capita ( from $54k to $60k) and unemployment at a 40 year low. Moreover, it’s hard to find a deteriorating economic indicator on a huge table like this…
https://www.international.gc.ca/economist-economiste/statistics-statistiques/data-indicators-indicateurs/Annual_Ec_Indicators.aspx?lang=eng
Have you seen any recent Economic “Bay Street” forecast for Canada that’s called for anything other than a moderate slowing of growth?
So when is the last time you’ve been in a daycare to verify this as fact?
What meltdown? You’re the one who has to go AWOL all the time due to your out of control anger at being proven wrong over and over and can’t debate without lashing out. If you would loosen your Ralph Klein underwear your brain may function in today’s world. Not in your Trump-like mentality.
My definition of “public” is “for everybody, equally”.
I would bet that the impact to children from poorer families is better with the free daycare. Without a good start they don’t have a hope of making it to university anyway. Oh, and I don’t have kids, so not biased that way.
Why would you count that when the schools are public?
Patrick at 453: Patrick making the assumption that the Canadian economy is in good shape might be one assumption too far. There is a lot of worry on Bay Street.
So true. Everyone knows that kids don’t learn anything significant between 0 and 5 🙂
hawk interesting when you do not agree it’s ok to call people names and attack. But as soon as someone does that to you. You have a meltdown. Interesting.
Early education is important. I disagree that it is happening at most daycares.
Insolvencies are up big which means those people are broke and on an extremely tight credit leash for the next couple of years. If you own a house you will be forced to clamp down to next to nothing or sell. With the 3rd highest debt loads in Canada it’s a no brainer what happens next.
If rates don’t skyrocket the recession is imminent. A hot economy demands much higher rates, especially at the end of very extended bull run of historical proportions with debt loads of historical proportions. The fact the markets can’t even handle just over a point rise shows you again how vulnerable the debt markets are.
The US will raise rates again next week I would bet, as to not raise would show there is more bad news hiding under the bed than we imagined. They wouldn’t want to do that right before Christmas with the markets already rattled huge.
Interesting segment on the global and Canadian economies and the possibility a recession hits Canada in the first quarter of 2019 and 3rd in US. Going to be a very rocky year, hang on to your hats, the winds of change are in motion.
Canadian housing could see even slower growth in early 2019: Prince
BNN Bloomberg’s Greg Bonnell speaks with David Prince, founder and president of Harbinger Capital Markets Research, about the latest Canadian market activity you should be watching. He discusses what the Canadian government bond market has been signaling for months and why he is concerned about real estate in the new year.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/canadian-housing-could-see-even-slower-growth-in-early-2019-prince~1565478
Falling prices.
Maybe folks who could get into trouble in the future if rates rise, but mortgage delinquency rates in Victoria as of NOW are almost zero (1/1200), indicating an empty “debt trouble” boat. What would change that, and make them get in trouble if the economy stays healthy and rates don’t skyrocket?
Daycare is school and geared towards the overall development of the rapidly growing child. Just because a toddler isn’t sitting at a desk doing reading, writing and arithmetic doesn’t mean s/he isn’t learning. Social interaction and play are very important to early development and lead to better learning outcomes.
https://www.naeyc.org/our-work/families/10-things-every-parent-play
Right on gwac. One of my favourite signs was a good-ole-boy at a Trump rally with a big sign “Keep Your Government Hands Off My Medicare”
Thanks. Interesting data and good points.
The balance of trade numbers are a bit disturbing this year. It is a number that the B of C keeps a close eye on.
Goes to show what an utterly clueless moron gwac is. Do you not realize early childhood educators are teachers and went to school for two years and get paid shitty wages too and is why there is a shortage? That they help teach young kids development skills they can excell faster once in regular school? Get out of the cave gwac, you clearly come from the stone ages.
Dasmo it is not revenue neutral period. Most people pay and work right now. It would not lead to this massive influx of workers and huge increase in taxes.
It’s a nice to have but it is an expensive program.
Expected cost to Ontario was 22billion over 3 years. So 10billion to
BC or 2 to 3 billion a year is the cost. Charge higher fees or eliminating some from recieving could bring the cost down
Free or subsidized daycare is a no-brainer to me. One of my employees is having to pay $1200/ month in daycare. This isn’t even full days. So wife can’t really work full time. It also impacts me since he wants a reduction in hours. A spouse back to work, being able to afford more probably means more tax revenue in the end since this also translates beyond those first 6 years. Just do the math on a parent 6 years out of career building over the life of their career.
Pat bad wording on my part. Did not mean to say all other provinces did not pay. Thanks for the clarification
Here is the list
https://www.ourkids.net/school/provincial-funding-for-private-schools
Five provinces do in fact. That’s not counting the 100% funding of Catholic schools in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Ontario. I agree the funding should be eliminated.
I am not against social programs. I am against increasing taxes other than consumption to pay for out of control spending. You cannot solve all issues without putting the overall future prosperity of the province at risk.
We got rid of HST. That was stupid. Voters are just idiots in general. They have no concept of how government revenue and spending works. They just want handouts and the government to give them stuff but god help if they pay tax on their meal to help pay for the government gifts. Just take it from the 1% and companies.
Leo
Daycare is not school. It is babysitting. If it was school and an education was being had fine let’s have the discussion. Here is a thought end subsidizing private school and use that money for daycare if it’s so important. Subsidizing private school in this province is Crazy. Other provinces do not do that. Rather see free university for BC student who went to BC high school than paying for daycare.
Or not.
Or maybe they’ll delist for a few years, until the market gets hot again.
Great observation.
I would suspect there’s a lot of folks in that boat. Victoria’s ownership rate is something like 65% give or take, and only a small portion of those would have bought in the last 3 years. In other words, there’s likely to be highly concentrated debt levels in sectors of the population.
I would further suspect that a small minority of those folks also jumped in to buy more than one property to expose themselves to would have seemed like a perpetual upside. Those people are what, quite literally, could ruin it for a lot of others, including those without debt.
Did you see BetterDwelling’s latest piece on Vancouver? This is just terrifying…
https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/vancouvers-household-debt-is-a-whopping-86-residential-real-estate/
Leo, first, thank you for putting up with me 🙂
Second, we also send our youngins to our catchment school and we don’t know or care what the rankings are. From what my spies tell me, both schools are great. And, yes, you probably couldn’t have picked a more ideal spot in terms of proximity to schools.
Mortgage debt 1.89x income or even somewhat higher would not be alarming. It’s the people with ratios more than double that, that could be in trouble, also those with significant CC and other high interest debt
I consider myself left leaning but fairly center. Originally I was against the $10 a day daycare as I thought why should someone with no kids have to pay for my kid. But then I was informed that Quebecs “Free day care” (actually low cost day care) actually nets out positive for the Province.
http://behindthenumbers.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/table-2-1.jpg
Numbers based from here :http://behindthenumbers.ca/2017/04/25/must-kidding-confronting-key-myths-quebecs-childcare-system/
Basically mom goes back to work, pays taxes, uses money to buy things, and there is a trickle down effect.
I’ve seen some articles about how Quebecs low cost care is not amazing but nothing disputing those numbers so until I do I’m actually for the low cost day care now.
I might add that free daycare would do a lot in terms of population support and affordability. $1000/month per kid if you can get a spot. Talk about a crisis….
Always found it interesting that no one has a problem with free school for kids ages 5+, but somehow if the kid is younger than 5 it’s a crazy leftist idea that the same thing shouldn’t cost an arm and a leg.
No. Big reason we bought this house is that every level of school is 5 min away. Not that Hillcrest is so far away but still, I prioritize proximity more than the Fraser institute’s rankings.
Why?
Live within your means people! Sheesh.
https://www.cheknews.ca/greater-victoria-has-canadas-third-highest-debt-to-income-ratio-cmhc-report-516863/
A couple SFH in Fairfield now for $899k. Just a few months ago there was nothing under $1m. Those that delisted in the Fall to relist next Spring could be in for a shock.
OK, Leo. I’ll just have to subdue my curiosity.
So Leo, how many months of inventory can we expect this spring with all the new builds completing?
It definitely seems like the trend is also key. In other words, 6 months of inventory with upward (cooling) trend may lead to price declines while 6 months of inventory with downard (heating) trend would not.
Patrick, on price relative to months of inventory, I linked to this chart in the article:
The flattening out of the curve at high MOI either indicates that Victoria prices are sticky, or it is simply because in that period we didn’t have many periods of declining prices and there isn’t enough data there to get a complete picture.
I suspect it’s a bit of both.
By “broad based price declines start in this range” I mean exactly that. Price declines start. They are not fast. If we look at 2010-2013 we saw price declines of a couple percent a year. The only rapid decline we have good data for is the 6 months of the financial crisis. We don’t have the detailed data for 1981.
But we’re talking about Victoria. The market had been cooling since 2017 for sure, but not enough to take it out of sellers market territory. I bet without the stress test we’d be at ~3 months of inventory instead of 4. That at 3 months you’d definitely have seen solid price gains this year.
Could have looked something like this who knows
Good point. If a tougher stress test had been in place since long ago we may have prevented much of this “bubble” run up in the first place.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation says household debt in Greater Victoria, compared to disposable income, climbed to 189 per cent, the highest second-quarter ratio in three years for the region and third-highest in Canada.
The cost of real estate in Greater Victoria led a year-over-year spike in personal debt in the region, according to a second-quarter report from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC)
Greater Victoria’s DTI of 189 per cent is third-highest in the country, trailing only Vancouver and Toronto
https://www.cheknews.ca/greater-victoria-has-canadas-third-highest-debt-to-income-ratio-cmhc-report-516863/
This means nothing for the housing market. CMHC bonds are government guaranteed as are GoC bonds themselves. BoC is saying it’s trying to make its government-guaranteed portfolio more balanced and this appears reasonable.
Nice post. The graph is good, but might be more effective if prices were overlaid, rather than just text comments that “ broad based price declines occur in this range”, If prices were overlaid, we could get a feel for how well correlated, and responsive price changes are to months of inventory. (As an aside, I don’t recall a price graph in the last 10 or so articles, but I could be wrong)
Notable but not that unusual. Happens about one in 20 months. See histogram of the last three decades of house price changes month to month
It’s a tempting conclusion. But…I think it was only an aggravating factor. Vancouver was showing a marked turn in the sales data long before B20, and months before the foreign buyers tax.
Expanding that scope, formerly “hot” RE markets all over the world are seeing sales volumes plunge, and they don’t have a “stress test”.
The US tried a similar tactic leading up to their housing bust a decade ago. Didn’t seem to help any…
Most likely yes (although the last two months bumped down again).
I suspect that the bull market would have gone on another year but the stress test kneecapped it. That may reduce future price declines because otherwise we would have continued to increase this year
The statement “price gains below the long term norm” is about as bearish of a statement as you’ll ever get out of Phil
Just looking at your last chart it looks as though on the upward trending years (2010-2011 and 2012) we gain about 4 months inventory from where we are now (Decemberish) to mid or late of the following year. It seems like we are back on an uptrend and if this happens this year it will put us in buyers territory. That with all the other changes over the last 18 months will HOPEFULLY bring some prices drops. Time will tell…
Interesting how concerned the regulators seem to be. They recently raised capital requirements for banks and now the Bank of Canada is starting to buy housing bonds https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/1073278868302159872?s=20