Feb 5 Market Update
Weekly sales numbers courtesy of the VREB.
| Feb 2018 |
Feb
2017
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Unconditional Sales | 72 | 675 | |||
| New Listings | 104 | 880 | |||
| Active Listings | 1434 | 1537 | |||
| Sales to New Listings | 69% | 77% | |||
| Sales Projection | — | ||||
| Months of Inventory | 2.3 | ||||
The first week is only two business days so there is no point doing any in-depth analysis on what is happening. Sales tracking similarly as January, which is down about a quarter but inventory is staying stubbornly low. Of the 73 residential sales, about a third of the condos and a fifth of the single family homes went over ask but only by a few percent.
On another topic, the “wave” of house prices is often brought up on this blog. The theory is that when house prices are increasing, they increase first in the core, followed by the outlying areas. Similarly when the market slows down, it should slow down first in the outlying areas before reaching the core. Hence one strategy to determine what will happen to the core market is to watch the outlying areas for a slowdown that could spread. I’ve previously thought this was logical, since in the runup we did see market conditions tighten up more quickly in core areas. However now that the market is slowing down, this doesn’t seem to be happening.
Prices for the core started faltering mid last year while the westshore median price kept increasing (at a rate of about 10%/year). Also while market conditions tightened up earlier in the core back in 2015, prices in the westshore rose at the same time. So much for the wave.
While dropping recently, the premium to live in a median single family house in the core has increased from about $140,000 in 2013/14 to about $200,000 now. It would actually be interesting to try to quantify this based on the distance from downtown. How much cheaper is it the further you get out, and what is that distance costing you in extra commute?
Only two weeks until budget time! What will the NDP hit the market with?
Don’t get too excited CharlieDontSurf…
Morning Li PREC*
Nu Stream Realty Inc.
Assessed $1,960,000
They are well known for this strategy, (and many others).
In USA news:
Gig Economy Grows Up as Lenders Allow Airbnb Income on Mortgage Applications
https://www.wsj.com/articles/gig-economy-grows-up-as-lenders-allow-airbnb-income-on-mortgage-applications-1518094800
@Leo S
Check Richmond Hill and Markham in Ontario where mostly Chinese live (oops, no discrimination, but the fact 🙂 ). Sales are down over 61% and 38% respectively, and the listings are flooding the market. According to my colleagues, price has come down 300k-500k from the peak – a disaster. The surrounding cities have most speculations and price run-up in the past two years.
http://torontorealestatecharts.com/
Toronto core seems holding up. Good properties are still selling well, especially in good neighborhoods. Infrastructure in Ontario has not kept up with population growth. A round trip from the surrounding cites to Toronto downtown is average 2 – 3 hours. Train tickets are expensive too. Demand for houses in Toronto area is still high.
From myrealtycheck.ca
8080 St. Albans Road, Richmond
Nov 7:$1,898,000
Feb 7: $990,000
Change: – 908000.00 -48%
http://www.rew.ca/properties/R2238111/8080-st-albans-road-richmond-bc
If you go through Marc Cohodes’ twitter account you might be able to get the article from that last posting I put up for free.
Canada’s housing market flirts with disaster
http://www.ft.com/content/8cb9f0fa-0a61-11e8-839d-41ca06376bf2
Yes, thank you Andy!
Andy 7:
Thank you, that was a really good read.
Good read:
The battle to clean up B.C.
Terry Glavin on the efforts to undo a decade of indifference that turned Vancouver into an epicentre of fraud, scams and real estate mania
http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/the-battle-to-clean-up-b-c/
We will probably be selling this summer so if anyone is interested in picking up an absolutely great house let me know. Definitely a home that suits a family.
Charlie, I am not making fun of Hawks opinion but rather how him and introvert are squabbling.
Sometimes the children get a bit out of control.
Like you, I have some serious concerns about the Canadian real estate market albeit on a somewhat
disinterested level. Nor am I making any predictions since my wife is using my crystal ball for a paperweight.
I am not sure what bothers me more: the mess we have left the younger generation or the mess that the younger generation is creating for itself. Now I am sounding like a cranky old duffer. On the other hand I really dont care since I am not invested in Canada and a crash wont have any impact on me.
That is good.
The geology of the island is pretty complicated and I don’t pretend to know it very well. There are some distinct bands that are sandwiched together and so areas near each other can have very different bedrock.
Not that this means we have a radon problem, just that it would be really nice to have more local data.
No kidding. Oh to be a seller in this market.
And I agree with Marko’s observation re: 2 bed condos under 425k being near non-existent. I don’t think it’s just a matter of prices going up and buyers not able to pay. There’s a number of 80s-90s wood frame condos (think: leaky condos) that normally produce a steady stream of supply to serve the entry condo shopper – they seem to have vanished recently. Look at the whole Quadra village area for example. There’s a half dozen buildings in that area alone that in past years would each have a unit or two up for sale. Now not even one.
One theory is many owners in these buildings won’t be able to move up the property ladder given recent increases and are therefore not listing. Another theory is these were the properties that dropped the most in value post-2010; the backlog of owners waiting for better conditions to sell would have sold by 2016/2017. In any event, this too shall pass.
We’re mostly on bedrock in Fairfield. Our recent radon test came back as none detected. You can buy radon test ‘pucks’ that you stick in your home for a while and then send away for testing.
Radon is significant in areas where granite bedrock exists. Nearby granite areas are visible along Highway 3 through southern BC, especially southeastern BC, but not so much in our area, although all areas in southern B.C. have some radon. Granite countertops emit radon gas is small quantities.
Barrister, if Hawk seems messed up simply because he has a bear’s perspective of the Canadian real estate market then I must be totally eff’d because I think this market is on the cusp of a major collapse.
LeoS said: “The other way to define it is core heats up first but also cools down first. Which is what is happening now.”
That’s not typically what has happened in the past. In past downturns, my experience over five decades in this region has been: The core is the first to heat up and the last to cool down.
Look what’s happening in Toronto and suburbs now; Toronto is down but the suburbs are crashing:
“Average real estate price in Mississauga falls $167K in 10 months”
https://www.mississauga.com/news-story/8121321-average-real-estate-price-in-mississauga-falls-167k-in-10-months/
“I must be on the right track if my position bothers you this much.”
Position ? You’re actually a narcissistic head case who invents stories of posters being child killers. That’s extremely disturbing.
Sorry Barrister. Intorovert might make you think so, he’s a very messed up individual. Too much radon maybe.
“Love this exchange —
Leif: Hawk, you buying weed stocks?
Hawk: Nibbling.
swch25: Im surprised.
Hawk: Why? Where did I say I was buying weed stocks?
Hawk, less than 24h later: I bought weed stocks”
The question “yesterday” was : are you a buyer or seller today?
Answer: Nibbling
Where does it say weed stocks ?
Today: I added cheapies to another weed stock I already own. Two different days. You guys seriously need a life.
We don’t sit in the usually recognized high-hazard area for radon, but I doubt that much testing has actually been done in each neighbourhood.
http://www.radonaware.ca/database/files/library/British_Columbia_Radon_Potential_Map.pdf
https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/environmental-workplace-health/radiation/radon/cross-canada-survey-radon-concentrations-homes-final-report.html
There was a call for volunteers from Colwood and Gordon Head a couple years ago, but I haven’t heard any results.
http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/gordon-head-colwood-homes-sought-for-radon-gas-testing-1.2330551
I would think that anyone building with bedrock close by should have a radon mitigation system. They aren’t too hard to install when designing a foundation for a new house.
Love this exchange —
Leif: Hawk, you buying weed stocks?
Hawk: Nibbling.
swch25: Im surprised.
Hawk: Why? Where did I say I was buying weed stocks?
Hawk, less than 24h later: I bought weed stocks
The thought just struck me that Hawk and Introvert might be just one and the same person. Just one very troubled mind.
Bowker Collection construction start marks Oak Bay’s third condo development in two decades
“Opportunities to secure a new condominium in Oak Bay are extremely rare,” Miller said. “We knew from the turnout at Bowker’s public hearing that demand would be high, but we did not expect the speed with which these luxury homes would be absorbed by the market.”
https://victoria.citified.ca/news/bowker-collection-construction-start-marks-oak-bay-s-third-condo-development-in-two-decades/
Disaster averted! Good thing that silicone was caught before it could kill someone
I must be on the right track if my position bothers you this much.
For those worry about asbestos/lung cancer, you should check out Radon gas as well.
https://www.cancer.org/cancer/cancer-causes/radiation-exposure/radon.html
“What’s the asbestos status of your run-down building in the Gorge, Hawk?”
I don’t live in the Gorge Intorovert, and my place is extremely well maintained with a major upgrade inside and out the past few years and didn’t me cost a nickel, but thanks for asking. Looks better than many newer condos, especially my ocean penthouse view all for $1300 a month. 😉
Asbestos is fine until it’s disturbed and most don’t know how to deal with it when they do reno’s etc.
The more you post the more you seem like your mom owns your house and you play landlord to pay the rent.
Seems like the core RE market is paralyzed, with 12 houses <=1M for sale south of Quadra/Lansdowne. Twelve. If I wasn’t in the process of building I’d be selling yesterday.
I had to have a full haz-mat report done on my crapbox in order to get a demo permit. Originally ~1915 but heavily updated in the 50s/60s. Of the 40 samples taken they found 1 positive which was the silicone holding down the kitchen sink to the countertop.
Similarly my parent’s ~70’s/80’s place was surprising clear of the stuff. Rental was also clear even though it has vermiculite (not all vermiculite contains asbestos).
CMHCs report on why house prices are so high in Canada’s cities. Nothing overly new but will take a closer look later
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/pdf/69262.pdf
http://banasbestoscanada.ca/asbestos-facts/
@ Barrister
“Now if there was only some way to make the serfs feel good, better still virueous, about not being able to afford a house or a car while transferring half their years labour to supporting a bureaucracy.”
Isn’t that what pot legalization is about? Taxable euophoria.
BC and AirBnB new agreement…
Airbnb to collect provincial, municipal taxes on short-term rentals in B.C.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/airbnb-vancouver-bc-1.4524284
Holy shit, I heard about that! Yeah, one reason the east-side core premium is in effect.
I don’t think I can.
What’s the asbestos status of your run-down building in the Gorge, Hawk?
Luke:
Now if there was only some way to make the serfs feel good, better still virueous, about not being able to afford a house or a car while transferring half their years labour to supporting a bureaucracy.
Haha. I suspect Alberta has enough spare farmland to grow their own. It is unfortunate about the wine, but refusing to buy electricity is hilarious to me:
“Yes, we want to keep our polluting and inefficient coal-powered system in place! Forcing our businesses and homeowners to pay more for dirty power will show those BC greenies!”
Heard that CIBC was no longer providing mortgages to non-bc residents as of Feb 1. Haven’t been able to corroborate that, but it does seem like we are seeing a greater impact from the lending changes as we go.
Might have to be that way if the NDP shuts down the transmountain pipeline.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvIrWwW5eBY&feature=youtu.be
Have a look at this video of Lisa Helps’ dream – commuting Dutch style. Maybe this is the solution she is aiming for w/ all those bike lanes?
Hey, we have the weather for it (usually, w/ the exception of this last Jan.), and we are mostly flat -ish (not as flat as Holland but come on it’s not like San Francisco or North Shore). Just watch the video and see how quiet it is w/ few cars as well… after yesterday’s rush and if that gets worse I could see this possibly happening here.
This is why… https://www.reddit.com/r/VictoriaBC/comments/7vs4wv/just_curious_what_is_killing_traffic_on_douglas/
It’s not about distance to the core per se. It’s about the bottleneck that exists because of the limited access to the Westshore. There’s only two highways to go there – the old Island Hwy w/ only one lane, and the TCH w/ it’s light still at Admirals/McKenzie (I can see the situation improving at least for the afternoon rush once the interchange is complete though there is still a light at Tillicum and another at Burnside Rd/McKenzie).
Yesterday was an extreme situation of course – as repaving combined w/ a big accident at Six Mile Pub caused the stand still backup. But, the traffic is only getting worse and worse as more people move to the Westshore. They need another option for people besides cars or buses. Maybe a dedicated bus lane – and I mean one all the way out there not ending at the 1954 bridge over Burnside Rd. Maybe LRT – fat chance that will ever happen though. Maybe a ferry? They could do something about it if they really wanted to. Where theres a will theres a way. Not everyone is going to get on their bikes, unless the situation has more repeats like yesterday.
Yes that was done.
Just like Franks Red Hot Sauce? I see Hawk guest starred w/ Ethel in this video… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USfwio7kYtA
If your house is like mine, a 1912 build completely redone/renovated/raised between 2010-2015 – and everything – I mean the shit on everything ex. some of the original studs replaced – then you don’t have asbestos. Sorry Hawk – but unlike your rental in Introvert’s basement 😉 there’s not a single grain of asbestos in my house. If you saw it you’d be floored – but of course, you won’t accept the invite for a beer from anyone. I waited for hours that time at the snug in OB Hotel and you never showed! Maybe if I say I’ll have some red hot sauce?
@ Numbers Hack:
“If I was 20 years younger…
I’d setup a bentwood furniture factory in Duncan or the Sunshine Coast.”
I know what you mean about the 20 years. But why not give it a shot anyway. Jimmy Pattison is still going strong and he’s much older than us, surely.
I love those art deco-ish designs. But I guess what really demands the adrenaline is the marketing.
Maybe we can halt the sale of pot from BC to AB then they have no wine or weed!
It was a Trump mockery.
Leo S
I assume that your remark about us having the best house prices was pure sarcasm.
Lief
Unfortunately Zillow is not up here in Canada.Not only does it show forecloses but it also maps out recent sales going back months. Canadian real estate boards have totally resisted providing consumers with this information.
So the question is, why are Americans so bad at housing? Up here in Canada we have the best house prices. All the best people tell me we have the best prices.
@ caveat emptor:
LOL
I’ve was never before compared with anyone so macho as a logger (see at 10:30, as I was in my prime. )
WOW!
So we were down in Newport Beach CA the other weekend and I decided to look up houses for sale on Zillow, a MLS type listing service which also shows houses in different states of foreclosure.
I was blown away, each red dot represents a house for sale, each blue one represents a house in some state of foreclosure.
Newport Beach area , Red is houses for sale, Blue is houses in some foreclosure state
https://imgur.com/a/DkZIJ
Seattle, Red is houses for sale, Blue is houses in some foreclosure state
https://imgur.com/a/GLve4
This seems to play into the increase in HELOC’s for people taking out loans on their houses to help pay for their houses and Canada’s massive debt people have brought on. It would be great to see what this looks like for Canada specifically Victoria, Toronto and Vancouver.
How do you quote again?
Hawk
are you a buyer or seller today? WEED HMMJ APH”
Numbers,
I’m a nibbler. We’re not out of the woods yet.
Actually we were out of the woods on weed stocks and looks like the opening bell yesterday marketed the 10% correction they wanted before returning to hopefully a continuing bull market 🙂
“every pre-90 house has asbestos
Well that’s total hogwash – of course not if it’s been re-mediated or renovated. Sometimes asbestos was never there in the first place.”
Yes, facts always get in the way of a good story. Luke has asbestos and doesn’t even know it with his 1950’s OB crapbox. Scary.
Numbers,
Good move, the delay story seems to have no effect on the pot stocks. Scooped some cheapies this morning on my new holding.
A week ago a very savy neighbour predicted that Alberta would strike out by banning BC wines. This is at a time when it the industry was having to cope with the fact of legalized pot sales eating into alcohol sales. It is an unfortunate development.
LeoS:
You ask a very perceptive question as to why house prices seem to only go down to the west. Nor do I have a definitive answer to that one. Like most things I suspect that there is more than one factor involved.
Based on absolutely no hard evidence (since I have not been able to find a map that shows employment distribution) I suspect that the Empress and downtown dont represent the economic center of Victoria at least in terms of jobs. Every time I am up near the airport I am struck by how many jobs are located in the area. All lot of it naturally is simply historical development where money attracts more money.
Speaking of jobs, the morning rush hour seems to see ever increasing traffic from Victoria to Langford as the employment base seems to be seriously expanding in the Western communities.
I am sure that somewhere in the vast source of stats out there there must be a breakdown of where the jobs are located and the type of jobs by salary but I could not find it. UVic must be a major nod of not only employment but also well paid jobs that influences house prices in that area.
Good story on asbestos and local construction (Vancouver) in the Tyee:
https://thetyee.ca/Culture/2018/02/05/Fight-Against-Asbestos-At-Work/
Good point. I was thinking of Introvert’s comment about his/her house being from the late 70s. Finding earlier historical information about asbestos use in Canada is surprisingly hard.
One other thing I have been curious about is the timeline of lead paint use in Western Canada. Both asbestos and lead are generally ok if you don’t disturb them, but any significant alterations are worth being careful about.
“I tested several areas of my 1912 house prior to renos and it came back negative for asbestos. Could be elsewhere in the house of course.”
That’s because asbestos wasn’t widely used in residential construction applications until about the 1930s. As far as I know, there is no asbestos ban in Canada, but it cannot be used in the manufacture of most products. Imported products may contain asbestos, including brake pads (I remember buying “Raybestos” brake pads in the late 90s, which warned on the box that the product contained asbestos, as if the name wasn’t a dead give away). So think about that, next time you cycle down beautiful, world-class Mckenzie Avenue.
As for houses, it’s a pretty safe bet that if your house was built between about 1930, and 1990, it will have some asbestos. It was commonly used as the backing for resilient flooring, in drywall, mud, in plaster, and pretty much everything else. It was a wonder product, and they really did put that shit in everything.
Curious to see what this is about… how AirBNB and affordable housing go together, I don’t know, considering AirBNB is a big contributor to the loss of housing/rental stock. Guess we’ll find out tomorrow.
Province, AirBnB set to make affordable housing announcement
http://www.news1130.com/2018/02/06/province-set-make-affordable-housing-announcement/
Why imply that there is something unworthy about the hard working folks who harvest the timber that our houses are built of? It’s difficult and dangerous work involving a lot of skill. Pays pretty well too.
I tested several areas of my 1912 house prior to renos and it came back negative for asbestos. Could be elsewhere in the house of course.
Purely distance from downtown doesn’t really work. Problem is you Cordova Bay is about the same distance from downtown as Langford.
Why is it only towards the west that property values go down?
@ CS
If I was 20 years younger…
I’d setup a bentwood furniture factory in Duncan or the Sunshine Coast.
Take advantage of the low hydro rates, purchase new equipment from Asia, partner with Camosun College wood work design, market it as sustainable furniture, environmentally yadda yadda and sell 1MM chairs to North America. You could easily create a $100 million company over 5 years…
But then again, that is only if I was 20 years younger 🙂
Asbestos is not really used for insulation. It only appears as a contaminant in vermiculite, mostly installed in the 1980s. The main place you will find asbestos in Victoria is in the drywall tape, joint compound and textured ceiling stipple. Some old tile floors are still around, but they got replaced more often than walls. Tape on your duct joints is another common spot.
If your house was built before 1980, there is 100% chance you have asbestos somewhere unless you, or the previous owner, ripped out all the drywall and ceilings. Hopefully the work was a certified remediation.
Yes, it was amazing watching the twin boosters land together. Brought a tear to my eye.
The in-references (particularly for Musk’s own Gen X) were thick and fast.
Heavy Metal:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWMPe3wF9jQ
Starman, Life on Mars, Asimov’s Foundation in the glove box, Don’t Panic…
I did also watch a few minutes of the bridge going up and down on the live feed!
@ numbers hack
“My thought has always been to have the manufacturing/finishing facilities done locally.”
Yes, it seems crazy to export lodgepole pine to Sweden and import it back with a hundred-fold markup as Ikea furniture! But then it takes genius and the right conditions to create a business like Ikea. Still we should be working to improve the chances.
Introvert, I don’t mind your relentless optimism regarding Victoria prices, but when you start losing an argument on facts, you have a nasty habit of turning to personal attacks. Surely you can do better.
Yeah that was totally awesome. Of course, we have something even better right here in Victoria.
Not only is it a small metal platform, but it even sometimes goes up!
Quite a few price changes. Less than 20 sales/day with over 10 price changes (aka drops) per day
Still think the condo prices in January were pure irrational exuberance and stress test panic.
@Hawk
Nibbling is good and went for the ETF.
@CS
Natural resources, like you said, it still the big or if not the primary driver in the BC economy. My thought has always been to have the manufacturing/finishing facilities done locally.
Well that’s total hogwash – of course not if it’s been re-mediated or renovated. Sometimes asbestos was never there in the first place.
Or they got stuck in that monster traffic jam of stand-still traffic trying to head west out of downtown today. All the more reason I’m happy I don’t live out that way! 🙂
http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/in-lifting-test-johnson-street-bridge-quietly-rises-to-maximum-angle-1.23166604
I have to say, despite the cost over – runs – the new bridge is going to really complement the look of the inner harbour – Victoria continues to just get better and better with all the new construction going on!
The bears are really tense right now. I can’t tell if it’s because they’re growing more hopeless, or more hopeful.
@ Marko
“The real-life range is no where close to what they say on paper.”
Because, in the winter, electric cars use as much power to heat the cabin as propel the vehicle. Same in the summer, probably if you have the A/C running full blast, although that’s not necessary in our climate. Here the range of the Volt, which is nominally 84 km on the battery, is 64 and 104 depending on the weather (but with another 500 in the tank, with the possibility of a quick refill and another 500 km, which is why I prefer it to an all electric car).
Universal availability of fast chargers would greatly enhance the appeal of all electric cars, but it looks like it will be a while.
@ Intro:
“CS’s beloved grandpappy must have been a logger or something.”
So I was right and you’ve been spewing balderdash for almost 24 hours.
Glad you have things straight now.
The range and 0-60 times of all Tesla vehicles are a bit better than they say on paper.
The real-life range is no where close to what they say on paper.
All of BMWs electric offerings are underwhelming. I don’t think we’ll see any electric innovations from them.
I don’t think the big players have gone after the electric market quite yet. I am pretty sure BMW could electrify the 3-series if they really wanted to. Tesla won’t be immune to competition forever.
At any point now you can just admit you made a mistake, it’s okay.
So awesome.
Seeing the two boosters come down simultaneously… jaw dropping.
“Coming up on nine years since we bought.”
Oh right, the 40 year mortgage fool with no investments. But I guess your household income must be poverty level. Most folks would be paying that off in a year from now with two average incomes and a stranger in the basement.
He’s not so great on deadlines, but on performance he has a history of underpromising. The range and 0-60 times of all Tesla vehicles are a bit better than they say on paper. All of BMWs electric offerings are underwhelming. I don’t think we’ll see any electric innovations from them. GM and VW are the biggest investors in EVs other than Tesla. Toyota has been a lot of talk with their supposed solid state battery tech, but it’s just been flapping lips so far.
Speaking of Mr.Musk, anyone else see the FalconHeavy launch? I’m watching Starman orbit the earth live right now :D. What a day.
“Doubtful. My YOY assessment was a six-figure increase (same as most homeowners, I bet).”
YOY core benchmark price went up $70K. So no one can make more than you ? Extreme narcissist twerp or what.
“No asbestos. ”
ICYMI every pre-90 house has asbestos. Except you because “you’re special”. 😉
Glad they’re doing something with this land:
Former Shell gas station site at Shelbourne and McKenzie eyed for rental apartments
https://victoria.citified.ca/news/former-shell-gas-station-site-at-shelbourne-and-mckenzie-eyed-for-rental-apartments/
Coming up on nine years since we bought.
It doesn’t take a wonder or an expert to buy and hold, plus take advantage of suite income; it just takes someone who’s reasonably optimistic about Victoria real estate and has a long-term approach.
Doubtful. My YOY assessment was a six-figure increase (same as most homeowners, I bet).
No asbestos. Mineral wool. Gonna get the attic insulation upgraded one of these years; the late seventies’ acceptable R-value is not what it is today.
CS’s beloved grandpappy must have been a logger or something.
I dont know if you said it overtly, i was just reading between the lines a bit.
The market is very exciting lately. Good on you for taking advantage.
@swch25,
Where did I say I was buying weed stocks ? That was Numbers. I did sell most of one that went up 2000% and holding another that few are aware of. Always on the lookout for undervalued/undiscovered stocks in any sector. That’s where you make the dough.
Dow is doing a late day rally, should keep the bears at bay for the time being.
@Hawk
Are you buying weed stocks? I am surprised. You seem to avoid anything that can be perceived as bubble-ish.
I like them too, but there’s an awful lot of bubble chatter out there.
If you are, good luck with them!
Lots of articles painting a darker picture of real estate in canada lately. Maybe Hawk’s day is coming and he will be vindicated at last!
Numbers, could be a delay.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/marijuana-legalization-could-be-delayed-beyond-july-1-government-officials-say/article37871180/
Oops, damn stats. BC forest industry exports in 2017 were about $14 billion not $30, still many times foreign RE sales.
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/farming-natural-resources-and-industry/forestry/forest-industry-economics/forest-product-exports/bc_forest_export_report-nov_2017.pdf
@ Barrister
“You forgot to mention selling condos and houses as a major source of foreign revenue. Actually, how does the sale of real estate to foreign buyers compare to forest products?”
Yes, selling our country piece by piece to pay for our Teslas and Toyotas, our cell phones and avocados is one way we remain solvent, though it does not seem like a viable long-term strategy.
And it doesn’t pay for much: $3.27 billion in 2017, or less than one month’s imports to BC, versus $30 billion plus in exports by the forest industry.
That’s a pretty massive difference in 6 years.
In 2012 you could get a 85 kwh model S which was $85,900…..now the cheapest model S is a 75 kwh at $96,650…….so that’s great that batteries are 15% more dense, but I am not getting any extra range for my dollar.
“I’ve been wondering what that awful crunching sound was coming from Hawk.”
Says the 5 year wonder who thinks he’s actually an expert because he bought a shack and stuck a stranger in the basement. Made more in the last 6 months than Intorovert’s made on his plywood asbestos shack in the last year.
That’s a pretty massive difference in 6 years.
Timelines are normally longer than he says, but I don’t think you could say that he actually over promises. He’s making good on most of the stuff he says, they’re just a little later. It’s not vaporware.
“@Hawk
are you a buyer or seller today? WEED HMMJ APH”
Numbers,
I’m a nibbler. We’re not out of the woods yet.
However, the Roadster 2 seems to have something up its sleeve.
Call me when it is in production 2025 🙂 Love Elon but he really overpromises.
My point was buying a brand new i3, for example, isn’t a huge jump in technology over buying one that is two years old at half the price. I disagree Deryk that is makes sense to buy new electric. In most cases it doesn’t due to a massive depreciation curve on pretty much everything except Teslas, but with Teslas while the curve is great the absolute numbers are large.
CS:
You forgot to mention selling condos and houses as a major source of foreign revenue. Actually, how does the sale of real estate to foreign buyers compare to forest products?
@ Intro:
Actually, in your first post about forestry on this thread you conflated “forestry” with the “forest industry” specifically, you said:
So it is, let us say, disingenuous to claim that, all along, it was forestry, not the forest industry that you have held to be a small player in the BC economy.
One might as well say that the tech sector in BC is trivial because computer hardware sales in BC are less than a billion dollars a year.
Yes, cutting down trees is small industry in BC, but processing wood is not, it is BC’s largest export industry.
It is the forest industry, the largest of BC’s industries, which together with oil, gas and minerals, generate the export income with which to buy the imported manufactured goods and food that on which we depend.
Marko
The Model 3 relies on a cell called the 2170 instead of the 18650 in the Model S and X. There’s improvements in chemistry in addition to the format being better for cars. It’s 15% more energy dense. Not a night and day difference. However, the Roadster 2 seems to have something up its sleeve. It’s not big and it’s range is redonkulous (1000 km). The semi might have the same trick up it’s sleeve but it’s big enough to have the range it has with 2170 cells. There’s also a new format of charger called the mega charger. A super charger is 120-145 kw and the megacharger will have over a megawatt. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve worked something out with solid state batteries and are keeping it to themselves for now.
Haven’t looked into it, but the tech industry export number should be all over the place. In 2014, Techtoria was tooting their horn going “we’re number one!” after taking over tourism for the biggest industry in Victoria, but that was because of acquisitions. Companies spend a decade getting to that point and then their entire worth was included in the industry numbers for 1 year. AbeBooks getting acquired by Amazon in 2008 was a big one for example. Tech isn’t really our number 1 industry.
Same.
That’s probably the best way to do it, if you’re gonna do it.
I don’t invest in stocks. I throw my extra cash at the mortgage.
I’ve been wondering what that awful crunching sound was coming from Hawk.
@Hawk
are you a buyer or seller today? WEED HMMJ APH
Toronto sales plunge. Look out below west coast.
We just got the first real picture of the Toronto housing market — and it’s ugly
Sales plunge 22%, weakest January since 2009
http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/january-home-sales-in-greater-toronto-area-down-22-per-cent-from-year-ago
“Funny you don’t mention where this is – but w/ such a lack of inventory I should be able to find it… Are you talking about the totally dated 1972 townhouse on Beach Dr? Doesn’t look too bad but it’s strata…”
Was on my phone so address wasn’t handy. Pretty easy to find for a guy like you who walks into every house for sale in Oak Bay. That wasn’t the one.
Me too once. Extra irritating when I found an excellent guy to cut it all up into my patio cookies and steps said it was good wood to mill. I also keep some longer pieces to make into benches. So at least it’s not just firewood….
Dasmo, I wanted to say that I really enjoy reading about your house. It is too bad you couldn’t mill your fir trees.
Plumwine, we are also thinking of building something but the lack of trades is pretty crazy. Even if you find someone that doesn’t overcharge you, they aren’t available for months.
I guess I can feel better that I cashed out half my stocks over the last month to pay for my cash sucking house build at least…. it’s been a sea of red out there.
If you factor in how much it cost to build/major reno/extension on old houses, esp in Victoria and OB (permit + fee, cannot fly under the radar….), St. Patrick isn’t that expensive. Clean move in ready houses in the core command a premium. I cannot wait the market cools down, so I can hire good trades at reasonable rate again.
Whew what a day in the markets. Luckily as much as I am interested in the real estate market I am completely uninterested in the stock market. Just buy when I have money and forget about it.
Reading Ray Dalio’s biography. I like his quote (or at least he says it): “He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass”
That and Warren Buffet’s biography really shows you what you need to do to beat the market. i.e. dedicate your life to it.
Hawk, you could very well be right. However, the world is a weird place.
There is a lot of capital floating around looking for safe havens (not just coming from China). Talking to friends in the UK, even some mid-sized cities there have seen unsustainable run-ups in house prices. They also started from much higher than us.
The provincial government may or may not find a good balance to keep unwanted speculation out of our market, and bring it down (slowly or quickly). However, I am curious about the world-wide phenomenon. Will real estate ever be left behind for some other investment? Perhaps as interest rates rise, people will shift back to other markets?
I am curious if anyone has a broader picture of where the money is coming from. Just saying “China” seems to be too simplistic.
Also, it would be great if local governments could come up with some broadly-applied sensible restrictions on outside money, so that we don’t have people with pitchforks and surtaxes telling retired home owners that they should get out and make way for the next generation.
Putting a tax only on one city will just push the money around. See Vancouver –> Victoria.
Exactly – the FBT is a joke – w/ loopholes so large you could sail a huge Chinese air craft carrier through it! The Asian investors must just be rolling in laughter high in their Shanghai towers! Getting through loopholes is fun – it’s what they do!
I’m now thinking it was just Krusty’s way of trying to appease the population. She saw it could result in her loosing the election if she didn’t do anything. We were fooled for a while weren’t we?
She knew all along about the loopholes that weren’t immediately apparent to the wider local population.
If they expand the FBT – without closing the loopholes – it will just remain BC’s biggest joke!
Funny you don’t mention where this is – but w/ such a lack of inventory I should be able to find it… Are you talking about the totally dated 1972 townhouse on Beach Dr? Doesn’t look too bad but it’s strata…
“Meanwhile… yet another OB home sells over asking in a bidding war… appears the ‘stress test’ isn’t hurting everybody.”
Meanwhile in Oak Bay a nice place in SOB slashed $60K to $1.25 million. Looks like fewer are qualifying for a mortgage.
“A lot of these people should be bankable,” said Noble. “But they’re not.”
“It is kind of like the condo market in Victoria. Huge drop in sales, huge spike in prices.”
Which is the perfect recipe for a crash as it did in 1981. People afraid to sell to lose out on more gains. Once the merry go round stops and 1 out of 5 can’t qualify, the market cracks.
“A lot of these people should be bankable,” said Noble. “But they’re not.”
Meanwhile… yet another OB home sells over asking in a bidding war… appears the ‘stress test’ isn’t hurting everybody.
This while inventory continues to remain rock bottom esp. for anything half decent – but it’s only Feb.
745 St. Patrick 1930 build but reno’d in ’03 listed at $1,438k sells for $1,500k. This 5/3 home on a small lot had a concreted over backyard. Not really all that great but I’ve seen worse…
My first chart was about sources of GDP, and forestry was way at the bottom of the list. However, if you combine forestry with manufacturing (which is near the middle of the list), then it does become a bigger player.
In the next post (the one after my chart post) I said:
I was trying to point out what kind of economy B.C. has.
But it was poorly phrased, because it sounded like I was arguing that natural resources don’t play a large part in terms of B.C.’s exports.
Actually BC’s manufactured forest exports were $13.2 billion in 2016, not six point something as I said at 7.08.
That’s versus the tech sector’s exports of $1.4 billion in 2015.
So in the export world, its the tech sector that’s what Intro calls a “small player” whereas forestry is the elephant.
Chinese companies selling off real estate assets…
What’s on the Block in China’s Potential Sale of the Century?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-02/as-hna-led-trophy-hunters-downsize-here-s-what-they-still-own
I can attest for Marko’s comment earlier that, if you have specific requirements, the inventory has not actually gown at all. I am looking on behalf of a relative, but only in certain areas. There is exactly one place listed at the moment even close to their needs. I have been watching for over a year, and this is the lowest inventory I have ever seen.
I can certainly see why many people are hoping for a crash.
Disclaimer: Not a real estate expert, not an agent.
47% below 10 year average is massive with Asian cash outflows getting choked off.
But prices up 8.3% YOY?
It is kind of like the condo market in Victoria. Huge drop in sales, huge spike in prices.
@ Intro:
But that is not what you said.
What you said was:
Which is false.
In 2015 the revenue of the tech sector was $26.3 billion, versus over $33 billion for forestry. So forestry is not a small player as you repeatedly and falsely assert. Furthermore, you still fail to grasp that wood products and paper account for the bulk of BC’s manufacturing sector, which you have repeatedly treated as something distinct from the forest industry.
As for exports:
BC Tech Sector (2015): $1.4 billion
BC Forest Industry (2016) $6.927 billion
But perhaps you can twist the record some new way.
Place a pair of asterisks at either end of the text you want to be bold:
(asterisk)(asterisk)text(asterisk)(asterisk)
Andy7,
Good points and link. Vancouver’s chart looks like the Dow and TSX just before they tanked.
Don’t mind Mike tho, he likes to BS the facts. 47% below 10 year average is massive with Asian cash outflows getting choked off.
With 1 out of 5 mortages getting declined you can only imagine the effect coming for those renewing with HELOC’s maxed out.
Michael
Yes, and it’s misleading…
In the same report it states,
“By property type, detached sales were down 24.8 per cent from the 10-year January average”
http://www.rebgv.org/sites/default/files/REBGV-Stats-Pkg-January-2018.pdf%20
Meanwhile, Steve Saretsky writes the following… it’s worth checking out the chart he refers to, it shows the drop quite nicely – looks like sales this low have only been seen in 2009, 2017 and 2018.
Vancouver Detached Sales
When comparing on a year over year basis, January sales inched up by 3.4%, however they remain a staggering 47% below the ten year average for the month of January. The 91 sales recorded for the month of January were the second fewest since 2009.
http://vancitycondoguide.com/detached-market-report-january-2018/
Can someone tell me how I can ‘bold’ text here?
No.
Tech employs more people and adds more GDP than forestry, and has for a while:
http://vancouversun.com/opinion/opinion-super-technological-british-columbia-b-c-s-tech-sector-leads-economic-growth
Van sales were up alot in January, but prices not so much.
Are single family homes in Van really up 8.3% YOY? Damn, so much for the foreign tax if that number is correct.
Unless you’re talking about the Model 3, Semi or Roadster 2, in which case they’ve changed a lot. I imagine the S and X will eventually get a 2170 upgrade too.
Do they get substantially more range, charger quicker, or anything else compared to the original 2012 Tesla Model S 85 Kwh?
It’s not a night and day diffrrence.
Better strategy is to always keep an eye on our naughty big Sister. Vic typically lags Van by roughly half a year (not sure how long from Vic to Langford, up island, etc)
Van sales were up alot in January, but prices not so much.
Top 3 quotes so far for 2018, and may well stand the test of time. 😉
“A lot of these people should be bankable,” said Noble. “But they’re not.”
“I spoke with a person that secures properties under foreclosure and his business has picked up significantly this year.”
“One persons misery is another’s bread and butter.”
@ Intro:
Even if you had managed to say what you were trying to say it would have been wrong.
“wood manufacturing was by far the largest industry within BC’s manufacturing sector, as it accounts for 24% of sectoral GDP.” source
As for:
No? Well, I suppose our healthcare system could get along without all the imported technology, those Siemens CAT scanners, the vast expenditure on imported drugs, etc., but it would then be more of a bare-foot doctor system than a high-tech healthcare system.
And without our resource exports the Canuck buck would be so cheap you could say good-bye to Hawaian holidays, BMWs and French wine, since the only thing we could reasonably expect to sell in exchange would be our prime waterfront real estate.
Keep on walking that one back. Maybe it was just a spelling mistake.
I love how you’re actually in the same position as Trump right now, who constantly talked about he was responsible for the stock market being up, and now…
Introvert – (I’ve only been criticizing the theory for a period of years on here…)
Not so fast on another little self pat on the back just quite yet. Sales have contracted a bit because of price discrepancies and affordability catching up to us. We may see the theory come into play if/when MOI increases dramatically and prices start to drop.
I spoke with a person that secures properties under foreclosure and his business has picked up significantly this year. He usually averages 85 properties a year that have to be secured but for the last two years that dropped off substantially. So far he is at 8 since the beginning of 2018. So he is hopeful that 2018 will be a profitable year for him.
One persons misery is another’s bread and butter.
What’s going on with The Wade where the sidewalk collapsed and is still not fixed ? I see the co-founder of the syndicate who got his license revoked and fined was pumping it on Twitter a couple months ago. Hate to see folks get burnt on that deal. Lots do taking on that kind of risk but 90% ?? Yikes.
Ontario watchdog revokes licence of Fortress’ lead mortgage broker BDMC
“An investor outcry about the products has focused public and government attention on FSCO’s lax regulation of the market. In the past decade, more than 20,000 retail investors have put as much as $1.5 billion into syndicated mortgages, mostly in Ontario, according to regulatory sources.
Roughly 90 per cent of those investments, the sources said, have ended in a loss or are at risk of doing so, and Fortress projects make up more than half of the investments.”
http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/mortgages/update-1-ontario-regulator-revokes-mortgage-broker-bdmc-license-after-probe
Deryk, I think electric cars are brilliant and the world can’t switch fast enough. However, I believe the earlier commuting discussion was more about lost time and added frustration. Leo S had a good comment a while ago relating the equivalent home “value” of different length commutes, but I don’t think fuel price factored highly.
I think it’s fifth on my chart: “Technology, cultural + ICT.”
ICT = information and communications technology
This is my fault; my “primarily a natural resource export economy” statement was poorly phrased.
Yes, in terms of exports, forestry is very important.
What I was trying to say was, in terms of GDP (and jobs), forestry is a small player compared to many other sectors (e.g., real estate, construction, manufacturing, health care).
In other words, B.C.’s overall economy is not primarily based on forestry or natural resource exports but on real estate, construction, and several other big sectors.
And, yes, many rural communities live and die by forestry. I get that.
In Victoria too you say ? The kids aren’t alright. Pity…. but in reality a blessing.
But even some alternative lenders are tightening their standards.
“Private lender Fisgard Asset Management Corporation in Victoria is seeing an influx of borrowers and “better quality business” said Hali Noble, its senior vice president of residential mortgage investments and broker relations.
“A lot of these people should be bankable,” said Noble. “But they’re not.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/02/05/new-mortgage-rules-alternative-lenders_a_23353178/?utm_hp_ref=ca-real-estate
“@Introvert
I normally don’t take pleasure in other people’s blunders…”
He doesn’t get out of the house much unless it’s to count cars in driveways and lights on at night in the golden hood. AKA the creepy neighbor.
Bummer about those new mortgage rules. Wait til the spec/FB tax kicks in.
20% more mortgages are being denied by big banks, sending borrowers down the credit ladder
Stricter mortgage rules are sending borrowers towards more risky lenders that are out of the regulator’s purview
TORONTO — Mortgage brokers say the borrower rejection rate from large banks and traditional monoline mortgage lenders has gone up as much as 20 per cent after Canada’s banking regulator imposed a new stress test for home buyers who don’t need mortgage insurance.
As a result, alternative lenders are seeing an uptick in business as brokers increasingly direct home buyers toward borrowing options that are beyond the reach of the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions’ newly enacted tighter lending requirements.
http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/mortgages/new-mortgage-rules-sending-borrowers-down-the-credit-ladder-to-alt-lenders
Unless you’re talking about the Model 3, Semi or Roadster 2, in which case they’ve changed a lot. I imagine the S and X will eventually get a 2170 upgrade too.
Number 6:
Good question about IT. It would be interesting to know what amount of IT actually is sold abroad. There may be a problem defining IT as a category. Does one include the people who keep the library computers going and their program updated as IT?
Perhaps a youtube video will help to explain that this isn’t a Just Jack theory it’s an economic theory in Locational Theory known as the Substitution Effect.
https://youtu.be/8AOUehivONg
https://youtu.be/SMKIsdtuqyw
Where is IT?
The grant is factored into the price of the used vehicle. So yes, you do get the grant if you buy used, just indirectly. Right now the only EVs worth buying new are Tesla because they are equivalent to the same vehicle price on the gas side.
The new cars come with a warranty for the batteries and the technology is much superior from even a year ago.
Not really. Tesla batteries haven’t changed much in 6 years. BMW i3, Golf electric, Leaf only saw small increases. The only have decent improvement is the new Leaf coming later this year.
Introvert; In terms of exports we are primarily mining and forestry. We have to pay for all those things people buy at Cosco somehow.
@Introvert
I normally don’t take pleasure in other people’s blunders…
@ Intro:
Top five B.C. origin exports to world, 2016 ($millions)
Lumber, of a thickness exceeding 6 mm
$6,942.1 18%
Coal and solid fuels manufactured from coal
$4,212.0 11%
Chemical wood pulp, soda or sulphate, other than dissolving grades
$2,743.1 7%
Copper ores and concentrates
$2,729.5 7%
Liquefied petroleum or hydrocarbon gases (including natural gas)
$2,006.9 5%
Total $39,435.5 (48% of total BC exports) Source
And the reason Horgan is as keen as Christie Clark to promote the export of resources is that there is at least a half trillion dollars worth of gas and oil in the Montney basin alone.
@ Intro:
Your chart showing Ag., Forestry, and Fish. accounting for about 3% of BC’s GDP, includes the bulk of the forest industry’s contribution to GDP under “manufacturing.”
The BC forest industry’s total contribution to provincial GDP was $12.9 billion in 2016, whereas total output was $33 billion. (the GDP number is net of inputs.) The forest industry accounted for more than one third of all of BC’s exports. So, yes, while property speculation may top forestry for now, the forest industry still matters — a lot.
The forest industry is particularly important in rural areas and it provides many high wage jobs with a big multiplier effect.
That’s my definition of the wave theory. I don’t think there’s a standard. The other way to define it is core heats up first but also cools down first. Which is what is happening now.
People who live in the outlying areas such as Langford and Sooke are always surprised to learn that a trip in an electric car from Sooke to downtown Victoria and all the way back to Sooke again ….costs around $1.75 in electricity total round trip. The cost is less than the cost of the bus trip. Most people I talk to are always shocked at how cheap it is. Most do not know that they can get $3,000.00 for exchanging the junk old beat up car with the swap program. Most are not aware that the government also gives you $9,000.00 if you buy an electric car. Most people do not know that electric cars are actually around the same price as a new electric car. (I firmly believe that it is not worth buying a used electric car because the technology has advanced so rapidly and you do not get the grants if you buy second hand.) The new cars come with a warranty for the batteries and the technology is much superior from even a year ago. I’m posting this for people who endure the costly commute in a gasoline engine car. Hope it is useful.
What? The wave theory—often floated by Just Jack—is faulty? You’ve got to be kidding!
(I’ve only been criticizing the theory for a period of years on here…)
Interesting about the Westshore & condo’s catching up while the core gets flat or even down, however…
Another one I”m watching sells for shocker price… 2267 Pacific Ave, in regular ol’ North OB – Only 3 bed/3 bath family house w/ no income potential (no suite) at 2500 sq ft. Sells for $1,642k.
While it’s slightly higher end, its not a mansion – on a reg. size lot and overlooked from behind. Two houses off busy-ish Cadboro Bay Rd. While it’s a 2012 build and quality, ask yourself – would you be happy paying that price and would you see an upside from these levels? I’m not so sure. This is almost getting to Vancouver prices but at least our neighbourhoods aren’t half empty as mentioned in the last thread. Yes, something needs to be done about that for sure…
This isn’t the only one I’m watching lately that has sold really high – in OB or Fairfield. When Leo mentions the core, and then in the last thread shows the small house in the Glanford area that was listed for 600’s it’s when I start to realize ‘the core’ means a big area w/ lots of divergence in ‘hoods.
There are definitely a lot of differences between area’s in the core so talking about the core as a whole paints a broad brush. Maybe we should separate the ‘core’ into two areas? (much like Vancouver is separated between East and Westside’s).
I’ve often wondered this. It could be broken down to dollars gained per minute of commute. I greatly value my ability to drunkenly stumble home from just about anywhere downtown but I do wonder what it would cost me in terms of ownership.
The core cooling before outlying areas seems to support my “speculative ceiling” theory. Prices hit in the core for SFH are so sky high that buyers are losing confidence in the ability for core SFH to make reasonable gains past them. Also so few buyers could afford those prices to begin with. It’s shocking that they seem to think there’s still gains to be had with condos.
When people say B.C. is primarily a natural resource export economy, it’s a lie.
(From the previous thread:)
I bet forestry hasn’t been the “biggest driver in the BC economy” since the 1970s, or perhaps even earlier.
These are 2012 stats, but I’m sure it’s only gotten worse for forestry since then:
Main sources of GDP in British Columbia:
