Weekly sales numbers courtesy of the VREB.
|Wk 1||Wk 2||Wk 3||Wk 4|
|Sales to New Listings||53%||76%|
|Months of Inventory||3.0|
20% below last year’s daily sales rate but that doesn’t mean much since we only had the tail end of last week in this week’s numbers. Will require another week or two to determine whether the stress test is pulling buyers forward, or whether the increasing number of lenders that are already applying it will start to put a damper on sales.
This is the season when sellers start giving up when their listings expire. We dropped 77 listings at the end of October and only a couple came back. While we will likely stay above the year ago inventory levels for quite some time, the market will still shed at least 100 more listings through December.
The over asks have definitely cooled down, with 18% of single family going over, and 21% of condos. In the spring we had up to a third of properties going over list price. The lowball of the month award goes to a house that sold for almost $600,000 under the original asking price and $500,000 under assessment.
Reader Barrister brought up the point that the days on market numbers are often distorted due to properties being relisted multiple times. “House down the street was on the market for over two years and every time they changed agents it came out as a new listing. When it finally sold it was recorded as 11 days on market instead of over 700 days. In short, the MLS stats as to days on market are next to meaningless.”
Which raises the question: How should days on market be defined? If a listings is cancelled and relisted or sellers change agents it makes sense to keep the days on market counting up. But what if it there’s an offer that collapses and 2 months later the property is back on? What if a seller tries to sell their house every spring for 3 years? Same property, but perhaps one could argue that the market is now different, so DOM should be reset there. Thoughts?