Weekly numbers courtesy of the VREB.
|Wk 1||Wk 2||Wk 3||Wk 4|
|Sales to New Listings||55%||81%|
|Months of Inventory||2.6|
Big decline in sales rate from last year. We are now at identical inventory levels, but sales are down by a third (16 sales/day compared to 24/day this week last year).
Looking at just residential sales for the same week (Sunday to Saturday before thanksgiving) we can see the decline is even more dramatic.
SFH sales off 50%, condos down 38%*.
* Note this is as of 9PM Oct 10, some sales not yet reported may still be added to last week’s numbers.
The stress test on it’s own may not be enough to stop this market, but if the market is stopping itself, the stress test could be more significant.
Meanwhile, reader Allison writes:
Our dream (maybe not reality) is to have some more space, and we don’t mind moving further away from Victoria, although would want to avoid colwood crawl, so Saanich is likely where we are looking. Our thought was that SFH prices closer to the core will rise faster, so that IF we decide to sell (min 2-5 years from now or even more), we will be in a good position.
What is going on in the min 1 acre SFH market in Saanich. Are these places typically just as or more desirable than core SFHs? Or are there just so much less of them that they are always a sellers market?
There aren’t all that many acreages in the Saaniches, with a bit over 100 selling every year. As John Drake already pointed out, while the core does sometimes appreciate more quickly than the outlying regions, this isn’t always the case and recently outlying areas have been appreciating faster. In general you can expect that you won’t be able to significantly exploit the arbitrage between the two areas as the differences in price ratios are temporary. Especially on the Peninsula where land and development is tightly controlled. This is a little different on the Westshore where there is plenty of land to slap together new developments and keep prices more grounded. As with most other single family homes, the conditions for acreages have relaxed somewhat from 2016 and are approaching the lower end of balanced territory.