Weekly numbers courtesy of the VREB.
|Wk 1||Wk 2||Wk 3||Wk 4|
|Sales to New Listings||59%||
|Months of Inventory||
An OK start to the month. 22% fewer sales than this time last year, but only 12% fewer properties on the market. The end result is an approximately equal reading for months of inventory and a lower sales/list ratio.
Second quarter buyer origin data is out as well. Remember, the VREB “buyer origin” data represents what the buyers of a property put down on the contract as their address. It does not indicate buyer nationality, and anyone moving here first to rent would be counted as a local. This is different than the foreign buyer data that the province collects at the time of the title transfer. The VREB no longer allows the buyer origin field to be queried so I can no longer make charts like this but they do release the report on the region quarterly instead of annually. Here is the latest data.
It’s clear that lower mainland and out of town buying in general has eased up from 2016, if only a bit. Since sales are down overall, it means the absolute number of out of town buyers should end up around 30% less than in 2016. The full data for the first half of the year looks like this.
And comparison to previous years:
A couple weeks ago reader CS suggested looking at the price to assessed ratios to better determine if the prices are going up or down. I didn’t think it would tell you anything new, since the price/assessed would just be the current value of the house compared to the value of July 1, 2016, but CS pointed out that it could “give a better indication of price trends than the median price when there are month-to-month changes in the number of high-end versus run-of-the-mill house sales”. The data isn’t always wildly reliable because sometimes the assessment value is entered incorrectly in listings, which means the average Sales/Assesment ratio is occasionally thrown off.
The only municipality I found with no obvious errors was Oak Bay (everything is better there, even the data), but for some others I took out incorrect values and interpolated them to get the picture.
Couple things to note:
- Sale Price / Assessed Value represents the average sale price (of SFH) in that month divided by the average assessed value of the sold properties. For example, in June the average Oak Bay detached house sold for 21% more than it’s assessed value (value as of July 2016) while the average Westshore home sold for 37% more than it’s assessed value.
- Sale Price / Assessed Value should sharply come down in January of every year as the new assessments are entered into the system (as seen in January 2017 for Oak Bay and Saanich East above). If sales prices are appreciating rapidly that drop is less or not noticable (as seen January 2016 and for the Westshore in January 2017).
- Westshore sales/assessed ratios appear to continue to increase in 2017 while the ratios for Oak Bay and Saanich East are not.
Hmm.. We’ll call that one point to
Gryffindor the flat core theorists. What do you think?