May 29 Market Update

Weekly stats update courtesy of the VREB.

May 2017
May
 2016
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4
Unconditional Sales 193 436 698  883
1289
New Listings 361 692 1013 1296
1423
Active Listings 1797 1854 1855 1910
2406
Sales to New Listings  53% 63% 69% 68%
91%
Sales Projection 889 940 966 979
Months of Inventory

1.9

Almost rounding out the month here so let’s take a look at what the prices have been doing so far this year.   Lots of discussion about how the detached market in the core might be cooling.  Sure enough if we take a look at the change in months of inventory, we can see that the core SFH market has cooled the most from last May, going from an insane MOI of just over 1, to just over 2 in one year.  Still extremely active, but cooling.

The condo market has not eased up from last year by any significant amount though.  It was slow to catch up to the detached market and now it is lagging again.

Condo prices still trending upwards quite strongly, which is taking the overall market up with it.   SFH prices also up, but the detached prices in the core are more or less where they were at the beginning of the year.  Before reading too much into that though, remember how these charts with few data points can mislead you.  We’ll want to watch the repeat sale indices and the leading indicators of DOM more closely going forward.

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257 thoughts on “May 29 Market Update

  1. CS

    I agree Garth has been wrong about real estate but without any evidence gathering on my part, he has actually been pretty good at predicting policy moves of governments…I think.

  2. NDP-Greens seek ways to cool British Columbia’s housing market

    An NDP government supported by the Greens would act quickly to cool British Columbia’s hot real estate market by creating more affordable housing and cracking down on speculators and tax evaders, the parties say.

    New Democrat David Eby, who has served as the party’s housing critic and is seen as a strong contender for a cabinet post, cautioned against reading too much into the paucity of detail in the document about housing, noting that the NDP and Greens are largely aligned on the issue.

    “There was a lot of nervousness on social media [Tuesday] about the agreement not reflecting specific housing-platform issues that people obviously care a great deal about,” Mr. Eby said Wednesday.

    “There’s clearly a shared priority between the two parties of what we both see as the corrupting influence of fraud, money laundering and speculation in our housing market preventing families from getting an affordable place to live.”

    During the campaign, the New Democrats proposed a 2-per-cent speculation tax on properties in the Vancouver region if their owners pay little or no taxes in B.C. The party also said it would review the province’s current 15-per-cent tax on purchases in the Vancouver area involving foreign buyers.

    The Greens proposed doubling the foreign-buyer tax to 30 per cent and expanding it across the entire province.

    The party’s platform also called on the province to work with the federal government to eliminate money laundering and international property speculation. Mr. Eby said the NDP will proceed with the speculation tax and will discuss further action with the Greens.

    The NDP had said it would create 11,400 new units of affordable housing each year for 10 years, while the Green Party had promised $750-million a year for government-subsidized affordable housing.

    Matt Toner, the co-deputy leader of the BC Greens, said any new provincial government is now in the unenviable position of “catching a falling knife” with respect to cooling the housing market, but said his party agrees with the NDP that tamping down speculation is a major priority.

    “To us, it doesn’t matter whether the investor is from Sarnia or Shanghai, it’s just: if they’re looking at a property as an investment instrument, that’s problematic,” Mr. Toner said.

    Mr. Eby, an MLA from Vancouver’s tony west side, said some other core NDP priorities are putting an end to flipping in the presale condo market, targeting those who abuse bare trusts to avoid taxes and cracking down on those who avoid the foreign-buyer tax.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/ndp-greens-seek-ways-to-cool-british-columbias-housing-market/article35185394/

  3. Bingo,
    You call it greed when it gets slashed but it’s all good when someone pays $150K over for same place. Can’t have it both ways.

    The NDP will see more slashes in the coming months. See many nice places languishing as they lose sleep wether they are next to chop chop.

  4. “pay 50-85k for junior/intermediate engineers but that was in the non profit sector”

    Non profit sector?

  5. If you actually are interested you could try emailing Viatec to see if they have any stats. They must send out surveys to members (and by must I mean, maybe they do, but quite possibly they don’t).

    They are and I’ve seen a couple of them. Problem is their stats seem to be done by a demented monkey and the resulting data is more or less useless. They segment by job title and that means that each average is comprised of so few data points it becomes meaningless.

    APEG Salary survey is more useful. We used to pay 50-85k for junior/intermediate engineers but that was in the non profit sector so add 20%
    Based on experienced software developers I interviewed they were expecting $90k+ from private sector Victoria.

  6. Bouble Trubble

    Canadian households are spending 43% of income on housing, which explains why most of the menswear stores downtown disappeared. Who can afford both a house and a decent suit?

    However, 43% does not, apparently, mark the outer limit. The Dutch are at 51%, so we have way to go: a fact that the politicians must be truly thankful for since, beside housing, the Canadian economy seems to amount to little beside the icky black stuff that everyone wants kept in the ground and a bunch of knotty two by fours now taxed at 20% by out closest ally, warmest friend, biggest trade partner, the United States of Trump.

    Still, that 43% is an average, and includes Tuktoyaktuk, NWT and Naimu, BC, so where are we in Victoria? Are we not yet hitting limits? Can the declining population of Oak Bay still afford to eat? Does genteel starvation, a scanty diet of dog food and rich tea biscuits behind the lace curtain account for the decline in population?

    Then there’s the NDP, poised, so Garth Turner tells us, to deliver the coup de grace to BC’s property owning class. True, according to Caveat Emptor, Garth “has been wrong for so many years he is in danger of collapsing into a singularity of wrongness from which no correct information can escape.” But is it possible that just as we’ve come to rely absolutely on Garth’s cast iron wrongness, he will mislead us once again being right?

    Certainly an NDP government would earn little love from home owners if they crash the market by imposing multiple new taxes on RE. But all those who despair of every owning a home of their own or of moving up from a box in the sky to a bung with a yard will celebrate a crash of the century. So it seems to me that Garth’s warning could be dead on. Who else would suffer beside recent home buyers? The banks probably, and how much would the NDP care about that?

  7. Don’t forget about Tilikum, Vicbot. In the 80s you could see him before he was a murderer imprisoned behind SeaWorld’s bars.

    At least they freed Willy. Oh wait.

  8. hawk

    985 Mcbriar Ave slashed $79,888 to $649,000. Yowser! Looks like the lucky 8’s didn’t work since the Asian money is getting choked off.

    Greedy ask. That’s all, the sky isn’t falling… yet.

    It’s a tiny 3 bed rancher clad in vinyl. Nice lot, but I’m pretty sure tiny ranchers haven’t appreciated that much in Lakehill. A place with a basement on Londonderry recently sold for 680K, so it’s beyond me how they expected to get >700K for a rancher blocks away.

    **Barrister **

    I keep hearing about the Tech companies on the island as well but I am having trouble finding any factual data one way or the other. Does anyone know how many salaried employees there are employed by the tech sector on the island or in Victoria.

    The tech companies don’t know let alone anyone else. One company I worked with had to pay for a 3rd party review to figure out if their salaries were competitive. It’s not something you can just look up. You can pay someone like payscale (which used to be way more open with their data), but their self reported stuff seems a little sketchy to me (last time I checked stuff seemed skewed low, maybe only people on the low end check out what others are making?).

    Check out the jobs on viatec and see how many list wage ranges.. precious few.

    My experience is high 5 figures plus benefits is pretty normal. There are some 6 figure jobs, but not many compared to Vancouver or Seattle (or LA or SF etc etc). As an anecdote: at a friend’s tech related company, he was paying all the tech people 75-100K base plus full med/dental and profit sharing. For his line of business it was quite competitive (he was very diligent on that.. easier to keep and attract good talent that way).

    So, not a lot different from police, fire, nurses etc. Police, fire, and nurses tend to get to peak wage quicker from what I know, whereas tech might have a bit higher ceiling. I don’t have any numbers to back that up though. I know a few police officers, some registered nurses and tech people, so I’ve got anecdotes.

    If you actually are interested you could try emailing Viatec to see if they have any stats. They must send out surveys to members (and by must I mean, maybe they do, but quite possibly they don’t).

  9. @CS Dynamics are totally at play here. Sales beget sales. When it was flat it was dead. As soon as sales picked up they took off. It’s not like rates dropped or anything. That said you comparing RE to stocks is not direct. Housing has the utility and necessity factor that distorts any comparison beyond herd mentality playing a big part in both markets. AMZN is a special case that continues to rise on it’s potential alone and the fact that it rises…. I thought they were to expensive a few years back at $350 with a PE of around 900. I was wrong….

  10. I think that it is astounding that you are more likely to live in a home that shares a wall with another dwelling in Victoria than you are in Toronto or Montreal.

    I’ts stupid because it’s only because of the municipalities in this city.
    If Toronto hadn’t amalgamated this wouldn’t be true. If you take greater victoria instead, this isn’t true. So Victoria isn’t a different class of city, the stats are just taken poorly.

  11. Yes, I’m already feeling nervous and inclined to back away from my rosy projection.

    You know, when you said, “I’ve drank the kool-aid” – that’s exactly how it works, and that’s also how things implode.

    Bubbles don’t pop when weasels like me squawk, “It’s a bubble, it’s a bubble!”

    They pop when weasels like me then say, “WTF. I guess not. It should have long since imploded, and it hasn’t. This must be the new reality – it must be different this time. Time to buy or be priced out forever!”

    A bubble doesn’t need everyone in a market to participate – it only needs those who can be sucked into it, to participate. When the last person who can possibly be sucked into the vortex is, when the most hardened skeptic loses his guard and jumps in – it’s over.

    This is why I say, it ain’t over yet. Too many people remain convinced that 4 walls and a roof are an effortless path to riches. But if I had to guess, I would say the distance to the top of the wall of worry is much shorter than the distance we’ve climbed already.

  12. Condos up 26% in GV over the past year.

    Lets see what our new Gov does to this market. Down I assume.

  13. benchmark core is 825k vs 805k.

    Not sure how its calculated but cannot continue going up 20k a month. 706k last year

  14. @ LF

    ” I am convinced a payback is looming and I am even more convinced that it’s inevitable. ”

    Yes, I’m already feeling nervous and inclined to back away from my rosy projection.

    Dynamics must be important. It may make sense to buy Amazon at $1000 and a PE of 186, when $1000 is a point on an ever rising curve. But what if Amazon plateau’s for months. It would make me very nervous. The way Victoria’s housing market is moving (sideways), I am inclined to hold my breath.

  15. One thing that’s very different is that people are migrating to the outer suburbs. Population in the core stagnant or declining, Victoria seems destined to become economically hollowed out while a new dynamic city emerges along the the West shore, all the way to Sooke.

    Victoria city grew by more than 7% between 2011 and 2016. Not bad for a city with no greenfield development space. Oak bay population is stagnant and Saanich grew at only half the rate of Victoria. Esquimalt and View Royal grew faster than Victoria. I think it is premature to declare that the core is dying.

  16. Seems kind of nuts, but why not? I see no reason.

    Because an economy based on selling houses to one another using massive amounts of leverage is unsustainable. Cities are entities created by people, for people, and require infrastructure and services to function. Further, those people need to live in places paid for by income they generate participating in that economy. A debt fueled FIRE economy doesn’t satisfy those needs at all. We need more than just houses to generate wealth – Services, doctors, engineers, artists, teachers…

    So, today as the market appears to all sane observers to be poised at the brink of collapse, I have swallowed the Cool Aid. I think the sky could well be the limit.

    I’m not convinced this is a market on the brink of “collapse”, but I am convinced a payback is looming and I am even more convinced that it’s inevitable. Exactly what “payback” looks like is anyone’s guess. I do think it’s out of hand and people in the region thinking of taking their first plunge into the market should only do so accounting for their actual housing need, balanced with the outlook of this market from here.

    PS, Based on your posts to date, you seem a right bit too clever to actually think the sky’s the limit. But if you really want the kool-aid, I recommend the green color. It’s amazing, most especially when turned into the cowboy variety.

  17. “It’s different this time, in Victoria.”

    One thing that’s very different is that people are migrating to the outer suburbs. Population in the core stagnant or declining, Victoria seems destined to become economically hollowed out while a new dynamic city emerges along the the West shore, all the way to Sooke.

    Alternatively, the Saanich municipalities will decide opt for rapid development, in which case Brentwood Bay could become the center of a metropolis of a million or two.

  18. @ Local Fool

    “History shows we have a tendency to jump on trends, drive asset prices higher, and bail when trouble arises.”

    Given that the future of markets is unpredictable, that is probably the most rational strategy.

    “Despite being increasingly unaffordable for new home buyers, the current expensive housing prices are rational, and should be expected in the low interest rate environment.”

    That’s rational too, isn’t it?

    The contrary assumption is that interest rates have some kind of natural range and that if they are now very low they must revert to “normal.” But when banks are free to print as much money as they feel borrowers can pay back or obtain insurance for, which is the case now, they have an incentive to lend at almost any rate that is above zero. And since inflation is around 2%, at least, home buyers have the prospect of being, in effect, paid to borrow, which they are now doing on an epic scale. The result? An economy where mostly we seem to be building houses for one another.

    Seems kind of nuts, but why not? I see no reason. At one time, a person could live in a modest home and still be regarded as a worthy citizen. Today, if you live in a modest home, self-respect demands you be, like Warren Buffet, a billionaire at least. Otherwise, respectability demands you have a minimum of 6000 square feet for a family of four plus cat and dog.

    So, today as the market appears to all sane observers to be poised at the brink of collapse, I have swallowed the Cool Aid. I think the sky could well be the limit.

  19. So, you can see, the adage ‘they aren’t making any more land’…as the population continues to rise…we’ve only just started seeing the baby boomers retire…

    Summarized:

    “Prices gains are exceeding that which can be supported by the economy. However, these old models of valuation no longer apply, as it’s much different now than it was then, with unique dynamics. Prices will be maintained or continue to go up.”

    Even shorter:

    It’s different in Victoria.
    It’s different this time, in Victoria.

    Nope 🙂

  20. CS, agree – it’s strange – it seems like there was a more diverse economy, even though Victoria was smaller. There was definitely a uniqueness to the city, with shops and services – whereas now everyone’s trying to copy the latest mass market craze (plant “modern glass village” here).

    Of course, now some people can work remotely via the web, which is good. There were also disadvantages when the recession hit – so many people moved to Vancouver or upisland for jobs. Then again, history repeats itself!

  21. http://www.sidewalkingvictoria.com/2017/05/the-myth-of-single-family-home-in.html?m=1

    http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/dp-pd/hlt-fst/pd-pl/Table.cfm?Lang=Eng&T=205&S=3&RPP=100

    The first link illustrates how much has changed as far as expectations people should have for home ownership in the core of Victoria now, compared to the early 1980’s for ex. But, even compared to 2011, things have changed… In 2011, there were 153 000 dwellings, of those 42 percent were single family houses. In the last five years that percentage has decreased to 39 percent. This change puts Victoria in a very distinctive class of city in Canada. Only four cities sit under 40 percent of the residences being single family dwellings.

    I’ve often mentioned, people need more choices here besides the traditional detached SFH. It appears, at least in the City of Victoria, we are getting more choices coming down the pipeline, but def. Esquimalt, Saanich, and Oak Bay can do more.

    So, you can see, the adage ‘they aren’t making any more land’ holds very true for core Victoria. We are surrounded on all sides by un-developable land, or ocean. There is no where to go but more density in the core. So, I expect as the population continues to rise, over time, the trend of SFH in the core being more and more unattainable by most will continue. Sad, but true. There’s lots more people here now than there was in the early 1980’s, and population continues to grow, and we’ve only just started seeing the baby boomers retire… Many people here will have to adjust expectations, as they already have in many other parts of the world.

    My favourite quote from the article: “I think that it is astounding that you are more likely to live in a home that shares a wall with another dwelling in Victoria than you are in Toronto or Montreal.”

  22. Dasmo, thanks for the link. But what would I wear with my fine, handmade, 710-dollar, Derby shoes in black horse hide?

  23. My 2017 property tax notice indicates that Oak Bay’s population has dropped by almost 4% since 2011. Is that progress or what? If municipal planning in the rest of the core follows Oak Bay’s path, downtown will soon have moved to Langford, to be followed, presumably by population growth along a four lane highway to Sooke and beyond.

  24. @Vicbot

    “Early 1980s Victoria: tourism, government, and natural resources (plywood mill).

    No condos, no tech sector, nobody had a cell phone.”

    But it seemed a more prosperous place. For one thing, you didn’t need to be an Asian investor to buy a house in the Uplands, and downtown, there were still a bunch of stores where you could buy a well made blazer or suit: Straith’s — gone, British Importers/Nyren — gone, Couveliers –gone, and hanging on in a much reduced state Wilson’s. Oh, and you could buy really nice Canadian made leather shoes — I mean with leather soles and heels.

    Now everyone has a cell phone and, wears jeans and sneakers, and probably lives in a condo. Is this progress or what?

  25. @Barrister — From my experience in the tech sector there are plenty of full-time salaried employees making wages comparable to policemen, firemen, nurses, etc. Of course, those professions all have access to incredible amounts of overtime which may push them slightly higher. However, there are also plenty of people in the tech sector in Victoria who make much more than those other professions – Im not only thinking developers but designers and project managers as well.

    As for how the tech industry is influencing the real estate market, I don’t think it’s too much yet. In my circle most developers/designers are quite young and simply not at that stage of their lives nor are they necissarily ready to make Victoria their long term hom. I’ve seen SF mentioned below and I should add that because of wages there it’s increasingly difficult to add and retain talent. A job paying $75k CAD here might pay $150-200k USD in SF.

  26. Thank you for the numbers Leo. I do appreciate the work that you put into this every month.

    I keep hearing about the Tech companies on the island as well but I am having trouble finding any factual data one way or the other. Does anyone know how many salaried employees there are employed by the tech sector on the island or in Victoria. Is there anywhere to find out how many of these employees are being paid as much or more than say a policeman or fireman? What i am trying to figure out is whether the tech sector is actually having a major impact on house prices as some people claim. Personally I have no idea but some facts would be a nice place to start.

    It is nice to see more inventory coming on the market. Hopefully some modest price declines might follow although I would hate to see a major crash. Too many first time buyers would be badly hurt.
    Modest price declines over the next year would at least add inventory as the smart speculators get out.

  27. Early 1980s Victoria: tourism, government, and natural resources (plywood mill).

    No condos, no tech sector, nobody had a cell phone. PacMan & DonkeyKong were high tech. VCRs & Videotapes became mainstream. Big Hair & MuchMusic launched so everybody started asking “Did you see that song?” while wearing pastels like Miami Vice.

    Tourists were bussed to Wax Museum & Undersea Gardens.

    Vancouver was a place to wave a white towel for the Canucks. Or to ski, see a concert, or plan a trip to Expo. Big city but wasn’t sure what they did there besides entertainment.

  28. @LF. I’ve worked in tech here for 25 years. I have seen it grow immensely over that time so if they were saying it back then they were right about it. It’s going to continue to grow. But so are other spots. We still pale in comparison to the east coast. But, it’s a thing here and we are on the radar.

  29. @ Leo,

    The funny thing some may not realize is the mantra, “Victoria has a large and growing tech sector, so we’re on the up and up”, is at least 30 years old, possibly older.

    It’s been an argument used in a general sense on how we’re going to become a mecca of high paying jobs, and as you can even see here on this site, it’s being used occasionally to justify and even explain current housing valuations.

    I remember when I was a child seeing this large ad on a bus stop shelter on Douglas: “Victoria – Soon to become a coast class city!” with references to technology and tourism. Never figured out what “coast class” meant, 25 years later.

    Funny how little people here have really changed, just in terms of perspectives and expectations. Southern VI is a great place, and for me it’s home. I love it. But it’s not the next big thing. And you know what I think about the New Paradigm™. I just ain’t so.

    I’d love to see articles from ’81, Leo. If you’re into it, I’ll join you at GVPL and run through the old reels and see what we can find. Who knows, but if we did, I think some folks here would be shocked. Hide the dates – and I doubt it’d be distinguishable from now. Discovered, tech, magnet, no more land, paradise, high tea..It’s different this time.

    Hawk, I’m in the mood for your chart….where is it

  30. Victoria Real Estate Board
    Thu Jun 1, 2017:

    May May
    2017    2016
    

    Net Unconditional Sales: 1,006 1,289
    New Listings: 1,451 1,423
    Active Listings: 1,896 2406

  31. Here’s some more taglio dei prezzis for you. 😉

    985 Mcbriar Ave slashed $79,888 to $649,000. Yowser! Looks like the lucky 8’s didn’t work since the Asian money is getting choked off.

    2827 Cedar Hill Rd 4 Plex slashed $100K. No money to be made in the slumlord bizz ?

    Fairfield is having it’s share of whackings too. 1580 Despard Ave slashed $145K. Mama mia ! 😉

  32. @Local Fool. Love those articles. Nothing new under the sun.

    One of these days when I have some time I need to dig up the TC archives for 1981 and 1994 in Victoria to see what they were writing about the market back then,

  33. Leo – When you have a moment could you please post the final sales numbers for May? Thx

    Will be posted tomorrow morning when they are released. I can pull the numbers right now of properties that sold in May and get 1017, but the official VREB numbers are always a bit less. I believe it’s because they remove the sales that collapsed in previous months from the current month’s total.

  34. Why every housing bubble looks like the new normal

    “This time is different,” buyers tell themselves. They’re right—until they’re terribly wrong.

    “Despite being increasingly unaffordable for new home buyers, the current expensive housing prices are rational, and should be expected in the low interest rate environment.”

    This line of thinking could be classified as a “this time is different” argument, which is used by investors to justify what turn out to be unsustainable market trends. In this case, house prices are not headed for a correction because, unlike in previous cycles, low interest rates allow people to hold bigger mortgages and purchase more expensive houses.

    It’s one of many such reasons put forward to explain rising home prices in Toronto and Vancouver, including tight supply and foreign demand.

    Investment guru John Templeton is known to have remarked that “this time it’s different” are the four most dangerous words for investors. Economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff published an entire book on the subject in 2010 and examined eight centuries of financial disasters.

    They found “this-time-is-different syndrome” pops up again and again. “It is rooted in the firmly held belief that financial crises are things that happen to other people in other countries at other times,” they write. “We are doing things better, we are smarter, we have learned from past mistakes. The old rules of valuation no longer apply.” The current boom, they go on, “is built on sound fundamentals, structural reforms, technological innovation and good policy.”

    …arguments have been put forward to explain Toronto’s house prices. An article in the Globe and Mail sums it up: “Mortgage rates are low. Ontario’s economy is superheated … and, to make matters worse, land is in short supply,” according to the piece. “Politicians and tenants’ groups have declared a housing affordability crisis—again—and have called for a tax on speculators’ profits to cool down the frenzy.” The article continues, “Dark words are muttered about how foreign money is to blame.” Other reasons are cited, too: Toronto is becoming a “world class” city and “acts like a magnet for thousands of migrants from elsewhere in Canada and overseas.” Instead of stocks, “owning a house is now the investment of choice for most of the middle class.” The unlucky masses priced out of the city are looking as far afield as Barrie, Ont. for a home.

    It’s probably worth mentioning this article was published in 1988—just before the crash. Yes, all of the same arguments we hear today were made nearly 30 years ago on the eve of a painful real estate correction. So are we doomed to repeat history?

    History shows we have a tendency to jump on trends, drive asset prices higher, and bail when trouble arises. Until human nature changes, perhaps nothing will be all that different.

    http://www.macleans.ca/economy/why-every-housing-bubble-looks-like-the-new-normal/

  35. “their platform doesn’t currently make fiscal sense generally, but they are more oriented towards a strong social system”

    That seems pretty mild, Totoro, you know you could easily push the blade in further.

    Fiscal nonsense and a strong social system are practically axiomatic. Will we get another chance to see this infantile illusion drag an economy to ruin?

    As St. Margaret said, “socialist governments traditionally do make a financial mess. They always run out of other people’s money”.

  36. Leo – When you have a moment could you please post the final sales numbers for May? Thx

  37. How do you say “price slash” in Italian?

    To be fair though, that article could have been written about Italy or Greece any time in the past 3 years.

    Timing is everything, as Hawk found out to his cost 5 years ago when he sold his house in Victoria and put all the money into Blackberry stock.

  38. HAWK I think you need to switch bubbles. I think this is the bubble you need to place your bet on. Uncanny how he uses so much of your terminology.
    “This Super Bubble Is About to Pop”
    by Nick Giambruno | May 31, 2017
    Right now, Italy is Europe’s weakest link.

    Italy has one of the most indebted governments in the world. It’s borrowed over $2.4 trillion. Its debt-to-GDP ratio is north of 130%. (For comparison, the US debt-to-GDP ratio is 104%.)

    But the situation is actually much worse.

    GDP measures a country’s economic output. However, it’s highly misleading. Mainstream economists count government spending as a positive when calculating GDP. A more honest approach would count it as a big negative.

    In Italy, government spending accounts for a whopping 50%-plus of GDP. Remove that from the calculation, and I suspect we’d see how hopelessly insolvent the Italian government truly is.

    In other words, Italy is flat broke.

    I don’t see how the Italian government could possibly extract enough in taxes from the productive part of the economy to ever pay back what it’s borrowed.

    Meanwhile, Italian government bonds are in a super bubble…

    They’re currently trading near record-low yields. (When bond prices go up, bond yields do down.)

    Over $1 trillion worth of Italian bonds actually have negative yields.

    It’s a bizarre and perverse situation.

    Lending money to the bankrupt Italian government carries huge risks. So the yields on Italian government bonds should be near record highs, not record lows.

    Negative yields could not exist in a free market. They’re only possible in the current “Alice in Wonderland” economy created by central bankers.

    You see, the European Central Bank (ECB) has been printing money to buy Italian government bonds hand over fist. Since 2008, the ECB and Italian banks have bought over 88% of Italian government debt, according to a recent study
    .If the ECB stops buying Italian government bonds, who will step up? The answer is nobody… Italian banks are already completely saturated with government bonds.

    Germany wants the money printing to stop. Italy wants it to continue.

    But, since the ECB has reached its stated inflation target and Germany has crucial elections later this year, I think Germany will get its way.

    This is very bad news for Italy’s government and banking system.

    Once the ECB—the only large buyer—steps away, Italian government bonds will crash and rates will soar.

    Soon it will be impossible for the Italian government to finance itself.

    Italian banks—which are already insolvent—will be decimated. They hold an estimated €235 billion worth of Italian government bonds. So the coming bond crash will pummel their balance sheets.

    It’s shaping up to be a lovely train wreck.

  39. I don’t know where we are but it is a bit unexpected for someone like me who was not really paying attention and expected a Liberal majority.

    My opinion of the NDP party is that their platform doesn’t currently make fiscal sense generally, but they are more oriented towards a strong social system.

    Dr. Weaver is very bright, but I have not noticed him being devious. I think the Green party just made the best choice to accomplish what they could based on their platform with a view to trying to hold on to power and make some changes before something derails the balance.

    As for the Liberals, I agree they have some PR issues to deal with.

  40. Totoro I think Weaver is politically brilliant. I just think we are in act 1 of a long play. The NDP better keep their new friend real close to them. I think the liberals need to take this time to get their house in order and get someone running the show who has a better public image.

    Hawk thank you for your insight. BTW the liberal won the most seats. I am sure you are already in line for your NDP handouts. Enjoy them while they last.

  41. gwac, the fact you voted for and promoted the most corrupt politician in BC history shows your limited knowledge of politics as well as ethics, of which you have none.

  42. The last federal conservative minority government was defeated on a non-confidence motion 2.3 years into it’s four-year term after accomplishing not too much.

    Sometimes a minority government can survive for a period of time, but not a whole term and it really depends on the strength of the opposition and all parties are constantly having to play to public opinion because what if a non-confidence motion is brought? If the NDP or the Liberals thought they could win a new election there would be a move to get to one either through dissolution or non-confidence.

    In the BC context the division between Liberal and NDP and Green platforms and relative strength of the NDP made a functional single minority Liberal government extremely unlikely. A defeat of the budget, for example, would have meant calling a new election if the NDP-Green deal had not been brokered which would not have been ideal for any party and cost the taxpayers 44 million dollars and might result in another minority government at this point.

    I’d say for BC a written deal was the best option. For the NDP absolutely the best outcome. For the Greens also a very good thing whether with NDP or Liberals and I fully expect them to gain ground with the public – but we’ll see.

    http://www.uvic.ca/hsd/publicadmin/assets/docs/PapersOfInterest/Bakvis-MinorityGovt-ACSUS-Oct14-17-2015.pdf

  43. Active listings for houses in May for the core have ranged from a low of 317 in 2007 to a high of 943 in 2012. And have averaged 755 over the last nine years. This month we’ll have a fraction over 430.

    Not that great if you’re looking to buy a house in the core as the selection is well below the average.

    The silver lining to the cloud is that active listings are 13% higher than last month and 17% higher than last year’s May. The market is still in favor of sellers but that is slowly changing.

    The big change in listings this month has been 350 new listings over last months 291 while sales have shuddered to almost a stand still over last months 205

    And median and average prices? Well they have remained stagnate for the last five months. The median ranging from a low of $850,000 to a high of $900,000 since January. And the average ranging from a low in March at $957,500 to a high of $1,046,500 In January.

    The median price for the year so far is $876,000 derived from 832 sales.
    The average price for the year so far is $999,500

    As we near the end of what is usually the strongest season for houses sales is a market strongly in favor of sellers but with stagnated prices.

    As we are soon to enter the summer market, a look back over past years gives us a good indication of what is most likely to happen in the next few months. And that is steadily rising months of inventory along with average days-on-market. As the volume of sales declines due to prospective purchasers leaving for summer vacations.

    The wild card are the speculators that are only in the market for short term gains in appreciation. As we are now into the second year of a core housing market dominated by speculation. Will the new government and flat market spook speculators into cashing and taking their profits?

    Myself, speculating on a market that isn’t likely to increase isn’t a wise place to put your money. You’d likely be better off speculating in the stock market than the real estate market these days.

  44. Gwac, you are only dreaming cause you wasted your vote for a corrupt bimbo. You clearly underestimate Horgan and Weaver.

    They are two good ole Victoria boys from the same cloth who may well end up combining both parties into one beast for the next 20 years. This could be the end of the Libs forever.

  45. Totoro

    A government just has to have the votes. No written agreement with another party was required. The federal conservative minority government operated without any formal agreement it just gave into things to get the votes.

    My point is the green get nothing by making the NDP look good for 4 years. They have made the liberal look bad the past 4.. My guess at the end of the day the NDP will feel the wrath of Weaver. Thus the reason for an agreement to associate and than destroy.

    Weaver is the smartest of the 3. So watch out…

  46. No agreement or association was needed.

    Actually it was and is in my opinion.

    A government must be able to demonstrate confidence of a majority of the MLAs – that is parliamentary convention based on a principle of good government.

    A government must also be able to govern effectively. By putting all issues at risk of defeat, which they would have been given the divergence in platforms, a non-confidence vote would have likely been called fairly quickly or very little would have been accomplished – the Lieutenant Governor would have been obligated to step in and call an election should the Premier refuse to resign under these conditions.

    What I am saying GWAC, is that without a formal written agreement, which is of no legal effect by the way, the Lieutenant Governor would have had to call an election when the Liberal government was defeated on a non-confidence motion as they likely will be shortly. The only option for the Lieutenant Governor to avoid calling an election is to be convinced that the NDP have majority support and are able to govern effectively.

    Issue by issue would never have worked and I just did not understand this before myself as we haven’t had this situation arise in BC in my lifetime.

    The Greens obviously had no chance at winning. Their best bet now is to raise their legitimacy and profile and get to proportional representation and banning corporate/union donations to even the playing field in the next election and to accomplish the policy objectives they can achieve by agreement with the NDP and block those they do not wish to move on. I would have done what they did.

  47. Totoro

    No agreement or association was needed. It would be vote by vote. Liberals did not give him what he wanted than the NDP would get their turn. He is now supporting a party that is really no different than his. Atleast that is what the impression that will be left. I refuse to believe he is that stupid. If I were the NDP I would watch their back.
    At the end of the day the greens real competition is the NDP. Similar ideology with a few tweaks here and there.

  48. Leo, you would need to know a lot more to be a realtor in the states because there are no real estate lawyers. They take care of the transaction from the beginning to the end.

    Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia and West Virginia all require the use of a real estate attorney for a conveyance.

    You don’t need to use one in BC – a notary will do.

    have you seen what a 250k house looks like in Austin

    Yeah, you get way more for your money in many areas of the US. One maybe more minor downside is that in Austin you’ll pay 5k in property tax on a 250k house.

    To me it makes no sense for Weaver to have any formal agreement with either party.

    I didn’t think so initially either, but after looking at parliamentary convention, the Liberals would have been in power without the agreement and every issue would have been subject to debate and defeat which impedes government too much to stand for long.

    The only choice the Greens had to stay in the game with the amount of leverage they currently have was to enter into a formal agreement with one of the two parties. I was surprised they chose the NDP, but my guess is that the Liberals just did not offer anything close to what the NDP did.

  49. Leo: “there was no decline in the percentage of people using a realtor, and no decline in the average commission paid (which is higher than here at north of 5%).”

    Leo, you would need to know a lot more to be a realtor in the states because there are no real estate lawyers that handle the sale of a home. They take care of the transaction from the beginning to the end. At least that’s the way it always was in California.

    There was mention here about Austin Texas. I have family in and around the Fort Worth and Austin area (one who is now an American citizen) and they would never move back to Canada because of our high taxes and cold weather. Yes, even Victoria is too cold for them. In addition, have you seen what a 250k house looks like in Austin? Major square footage, lot size, and beautiful neighborhoods with great schools. And jobs.

  50. Very good article on the political drama going on here. The last paragraph is what I have been thinking. Weaver is a smart guy. Just wondering if he has something up his sleeve to harm the ndp in the end. To me it makes no sense for Weaver to have any formal agreement with either party. Green needs to differentiate themselves. You know the ndp will use the agreement against the green in the next election. So weaver needs to blow things up between the greens and ndp before the next election

    http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/colby-cosh-were-on-the-precipice-of-a-marvellous-drama-there-are-few-puzzles-as-difficult-as-the-one-b-c-now-presents

  51. Also, if Vancouver blocks the pipeline, I think it’d be completely justified for Alberta to block the Rail lines from moving anything to or from Vancouver’s port, along with refusing to send any refined gasoline to the city. It’ll be interesting to see how the protesters get to the area to chain themselves to something when they can’t drive there.

  52. @Barrister

    Jason Binab is in his 40s and has been doing real estate for 15 years now. So not exactly new to it.

  53. The median house price in Vancouver is 1.36 million … The median house price in Victoria is $730,000.

    Vancouver houses are on much smaller lots. The land value is probably 5 times higher in neighbourhoods like Kits vs South Oak Bay.

  54. Class warfare is just starting and it is not going to go away.

    As long as our “class warfare” consists of nothing more than mild ribbing of folks who humblebrag about their wealth, I think I can live with it.

  55. Cost of housing is a big one now yes. Before it was cheaper than Van or SanFran. Now no longer

    The median house price in Vancouver is 1.36 million and a starter home in San Francisco is 1.62 million. The median house price in Victoria is $730,000. I’m not sure if salaries here are a lot less though.

  56. @ Vicbot

    “First, the government should stop taking bribes from RE developers,”

    Obviously, they should take bribes from no one and should be jailed for any bribes they can be shown to have taken, as was the fate of the late Socred Forests Minister, Robert Sommers. Sommers was no fool, though. I heard him once describe the Liberal Party manifesto as “nothing but a pile of sour owl shit,” which seems about right.

    As for starting to give out “tax incentives specificially for tech companies (electric vehicles, robotics, 3D printing, food/agricultural processing, imaging systems, etc.)”, I couldn’t disagree more. Of course they shouldn’t be giving anything away to the natural resource industries or anyone else either. Let the free market prevail, within the laws governing environmental protection, the maintenance of good order and morality, and see what pays best. Certainly, no bureaucrat or politician can be expected to have a clue what will pay best. If they did know, they’d most likely already be doing it, not telling other people what they should be doing.

  57. Cost of housing is a big one now yes. Before it was cheaper than Van or SanFran. Now no longer. So it’s yet another barrier. But the gov will not take the simple approach to it so I don’t expect anything effective on the RE front. Only two real solutions to it. cutting the flow of free money to buy it or my transparency law. It’s also a momentum thing. Companies locate where other companies are because the talent gravitates there as does venture capital. We are gaining momentum. Our seed was planted here because people want to live here and there is nothing else. So some entrepreneurial spirit is required. Now we have a solid tech foundation. Who know, if something hits big then we might have a super star anchor like an Apple or Amazon. Seattle was luck Bill wanted to live there and not the valley.

  58. “Cost of housing is also way up on the list.”

    That’s exactly why I’ve encountered a lot of non-RE businesspeople in Vancouver that didn’t want the Liberals back in power – they’ve destroyed housing affordability in Van to the point where businesses can’t retain employees and there’s higher turnover. It’s also a problem with medical clinics.

  59. Just got a interesting email from my friend in Toronto. Interesting perspective. his basic point is that his companies runs on brains. There is almost no capital assets, virtually everything is leased. The single biggest problem is retaining and acquiring talented people. At the end of the day is a question of cost of living and how much income is available after taxes for the employees. He figures that he has 15 key people in the company and losing even a few of them would be a disaster. Corporate tax rates are way down his priority list compared to personal income tax rates. Cost of housing is also way up on the list. Cost of health care is also a major factor but also the quality of health care. He admits that for him personally there is a sense of being a proud Canadian and his preference leans to staying in Canada and providing opportunities to other Canadians. He feels like he is a lone voice with that view. Basically he feels backed into a corner by the number crunchers.

    One interesting point is that the US embassy is offering immediate green cards to all his key staff as opposed to temporary worker status.

  60. I can only imagine how many foreign loans for BC real estate was based on fake assets. Just another sign the party is over for the speculators and money launderers.

    ‘Ghost collateral’ haunts loans across China’s debt-laden banking system

    Lax lending practices and overvalued collateral spurred the U.S. financial crisis in 2008. Now, banks in China face risks of their own as fraudulent borrowers and corrupt bankers burden the financial system with loans lacking genuine collateral.

    SHANGHAI – The banker at the other end of the phone line was furious, recalled Shanghai lawyer Wang Chaoyu. A pile of steel pledged as collateral for a loan of almost $3 million from his bank, China CITIC, had vanished from a warehouse on the outskirts of the city.

    http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/china-collateral-fake/

  61. @Barrister, we have lower taxes, talent and lax immigration and government money for research and development. They don’t need to do anything IMO. Our disadvantage it less venture capital trying to find a home.

  62. “Barrister you don’t exactly take a joke . For the record I don’t actually support a surtax on Rockland mansions.”

    You just figured that out now ? 😉

    “Rule #1 for wealthy people – boasting about your money makes you look like an asshole.”

    Agreed AG, you should take your own advice, it would do wonders for your douche bag reputation.

    After watching the Trump shit show I am so thankful to see the NDP/Green alliance. BC finally has some sanity back in office that isn’t looking out for their insider developer buddies and are serious about cleaning up the mass corruption of the Libs.

    I won’t be surprised to see them uncover some very shady shit in the books.

  63. I have nothing against his success. In some ways it’s a good thing that someone can make some sick money with only needing three skills: driving fancy cars, pointing at things and telling you what they are, and having your portrait taken. If you are going to do something do it well. He does it well….

  64. This puts them squarely in the middle class.

    Absolutely incorrect. Their pension income alone likely places them in the upper middle class and with rental income we are likely at top 20%. Their asset base of about four million, assuming no other investments, places them in the top five percent by net worth.

    I am not rich and never claimed to be.

    You claim you are not rich while continually demonstrating you are by any measure used in Canada.

    It is somewhat annoying that we are seeing this posted repeated given that I’ve gone to the trouble to point the stats out to you before.

    Just because you know people who have more than you doesn’t mean you are not rich, it means you are out of touch with the financial situation of most Canadians. You need to put on a different pair of glasses and I suggest you review the stats can data on the income and net worth of Canadians for a clearer picture.
    http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/ind01/l3_3868-eng.htm?hili_none

    If you are in a position to buy a million dollar house with no mortgage and have this be a small proportion of your net worth, and have the asset base to support the renovation of the home, your lifestyle, and 100k per year to charity, you are likely in the top 1% by both income and assets in Canada.

    Rich is generally considered the top 20% of Canadians, never mind the top 1%.

    http://www.macleans.ca/economy/money-economy/are-you-in-the-middle-class/

  65. Numbers hack, I retired earlier than Barrister and I don’t think this is about class warfare.

    “I am totally unfamiliar with the tech sector so my question is what steps is it that the government should take to make it competitive with the U.S. ?”

    First, the government should stop taking bribes from RE developers, and start giving out tax incentives specificially for tech companies (electric vehicles, robotics, 3D printing, food/agricultural processing, imaging systems, etc.) – to get this economy away from old-school give-away of all our natural resources. Part of the reason why the Liberals building Site C is because they’re anticipating selling electricity to the US. They really should start thinking about selling different products & services instead.

  66. @JD
    “Could the government have the same of effect of increasing disposable income to low income earners by reducing personal income taxes.”

    Yes, that was part of the Trump platform, to free the lowest-paid half of the workforce from tax altogether. The median earned income in the US is around $29,000, so the Trump plan in Canada would mean a basic personal exemption from tax of around $30,000. Employers would attempt to take advantage of the change by lowering entry-level wages, but the effect would nevertheless be stimulative to the private sector of the economy. And half the working population would be saved the trouble and annoyance of filing a tax return.

  67. I am totally unfamiliar with the tech sector so my question is what steps is it that the government should take to make it competitive with the U.S. ? I have written my friend who has been debating between moving to Victoria or moving to Austin Texas as to what factors are involved in his decision.

  68. That video is unwatchable. Reminds me why realtors are not my fav people.

    Also the jerks I went to high school with.

  69. I looked up Jason Binab’s web site. What i noticed is that he has a very large number of listings. Far more than the average. He must be doing something right. One also has to take into account that he is relatively young and not one of the established realtors that has been working for twenty years. Considering that there are almost as many agents as there are listing one has to assume that there is a reason for his success. At 18 listings I suspect that this is far above the average.

  70. Barrister

    9 million in assets is not middle class. That is probable top 1%.

    20 million is definitely not middle class.

    BTW happy for ya. You work hard for it…Keep as much out of the governments hands…:)

  71. Wolf:

    You are absolutely right, I am not rich and never claimed to be. In fact, I have often pointed that fact out. In Toronto alone there are over 100,000 people with a net worth of over ten million not including their principle residence. At best, I am upper middle class.

    By way of comparison, my neighbors who are a retired school teacher and a retired police officer have pensions that, if translated into capital have a net worth of over 5 million. They own four houses which adds about another four million. This puts them squarely in the middle class.

  72. That is a funny description though. Realtors have been top of the list of professions to be automated and somehow they are still here. I’m still fascinated at how in the US with much more open data (Zillow and such), there was no decline in the percentage of people using a realtor, and no decline in the average commission paid (which is higher than here at north of 5%).

  73. A higher minimum wage will have virtually the same effect as an 80% tax on coffee served at coffee shops, since minimum wage is what most coffee shops currently pay. The net effect, would be something like an 80% increase in the price of coffee served in a coffee shop and a consequent reduction in sales resulting in fewer jobs, whereas what is needed is more jobs and hence, through an effect on labor demand, higher wages.

    Could the government have the same of effect of increasing disposable income to low income earners by reducing personal income taxes. In that way the cost to business does not increase but low income earners have an increase in after tax income?

  74. @ Lurking…. (insulting adjective) in cars not even getting coffee…. I guess they were inspired by Marko (whose videos are actually useful so no insult intended here) ((otherwise that would sound like a great double insult)) (((sorry Marko I am now about to insult all realtors now))) ((((Sorry Leo too then)))).
    Is it only me that desires Leo to make some app to disrupt this industry of overpaid gregarious Uber drivers?

  75. @lurking
    Reminds me of the old story where a visitor to New York admires the yachts of the bankers and brokers. Naively, he asks, “Where are all the customers’ yachts?”

  76. Maybe just maybe BC children’s hospital should be adequately funded by the government rather than relying on the whims of the wealthy who might withdraw their support to make a point.

  77. No my dance moves are not as good as Jason binabs.

    And honestly is that the only reaction I am going to get from posting those videos?? Did you guys watch them? I wish I had one of those airplane barf bags while I watched them.

  78. Exactly what I was saying raise taxes on landlords (((Chinese))). What a great way to increase supply. Can’t believe I agree with Garth wrong everytime

  79. Amazing post by Garth, re: NDP policy on real estate. Is it based on fact:

    Can’t win with Garth. Hates the RE bubble. Hates any government action to address the RE bubble.

    Garth has been wrong for so many years he is in danger of collapsing into a singularity of wrongness from which no correct information can escape.

  80. In my parents’ language, they have a saying: “Hide your money like your ass.” So I’m used to following that credo. But to each his own.

    Barrister, the confusing part was that you said the charitable giving “stops now.” Why stop giving to people because you disagree with the gov’t?

    As for alternatives to natural resources, that’s the main problem with the Liberals in the first place! They didn’t encourage alternatives. We should have as strong a tech economy as Seattle, but Vancouver has often small startups & off-shoots of US businesses – this needs to change.

    It cannot, however, change when the Liberals only push existing raw resources & RE.

    By the way, maybe “Lurking behind the scenes” is Jason Binab?

  81. That’s it? No million dollar offer? 57 DOM is a long time in a “hot” market

    Accepted offer has been in place for ages, was subject to probate

  82. @ Caveat emptor

    ” I do think that raising more revenue from land taxes and less from income tax would be smart.”

    Better a capital tax, which would treat all forms of wealth equally, as in Switzerland, where the rate is 1 or 1.5%.

  83. Has anyone seen the last two episodes of rides with a realtor? Talk about awesome videos of some of the world class real estate in Victoria. And one of the absolute best realtors in Victoria. I think his name is Jason binab or something.

    Check it out.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=it6LFsfJ8hg

    Spend some extra time around the 2:50 mark. Not only can this guy sell homes he has some sweet moves.

    Rumour has it he’s going to be teaming up with some guy named Mike Giordano (one of his friends in real estate) in the next episode. Mike also has some really helpful videos on his Facebook page that are also a must to check out.

  84. Barrister you don’t exactly take a joke . For the record I don’t actually support a surtax on Rockland mansions. Overall though I do think that raising more revenue from land taxes and less from income tax would be smart. The beauty of land taxes is that they are nearly impossible to avoid and easy to enforce. Increasing the carrying costs of land would also tend to make it sell cheaper and be put to best use.

  85. “Bingo: On the topic of RE: 1861 San Juan Ave pending at 911K
    No price slashes there (of course not, they were only asking 749K).”

    That’s it? No million dollar offer? 57 DOM is a long time in a “hot” market.

  86. CTV has a list of 21 bullet-points in the Green/NDP agreement. The only issue they mentioned regarding housing was this:
    Make housing more affordable by taking action to deal with the speculation and fraud that the NDP and Greens say is driving up prices.

  87. Amazing post by Garth, re: NDP policy on real estate. Is it based on fact:

    “The coalition of Dippers and Greens seizing power in a bloodless coup appears unified on a strategy to destroy real estate equity. First, they’ll double the Chinese Dudes tax, from a merely punishing 15% to a death-spiral 30%. That will send a strong message to the world that no foreign investment is wanted in BC. Genius.

    Second, the tax will be extended across the entire province …

    Read more

  88. The expectation that charity should be given secretly stems back, it would seem, to our Lord and Savior:

    Therefore when thou doest thine alms, do not sound a trumpet before thee, as the hypocrites do in the synagogues and in the streets, that they may have glory of men. Verily I say unto you, They have their reward.

    But while modesty is a wonderful virtue, does it make any sense, from a public policy point of view to condemn the lack of modesty? I mean, if you give the University $5 million, or is it ten, they put your name on the building. Does that not encourage donations to the university?

    Indeed if we go back to the pagan world, we see that the Germanic tribes had an annual get together when everyone threw their tithe in support of public expenditures into an open chest, where the size of every contribution could be seen. That way, not only was tax evasion made difficult, but wealth publicly affirmed.

    My own view is that this is how we should treat both charitable giving and tax paying. Pay over a thousand in taxes this year and get a bronze star, over ten thousand, a silver star, over 100 thousand a gold star, over a million a diamond pin, etc. Now, the rich would vie with one another to pay the most tax, the highest paying 100 tax payers being appointed as the members of the Senate.

  89. but I am really feeling that I may be one of the few that value it

    That is not true. It is just about being able to afford it Barrister. Set up your trust and don’t let one election derail your views.

  90. It’s not the giving of money but rather the attitude of self importance that rubs people. Let ol’dusty bones have his political tantrum; he’ll work through it.

    Barrister isn’t even rich if he only has $20 million. Probably came to Canada because he was tired of being poor in LA or New York.

  91. Jerry:

    Thank you for the kind words. Other than a very modest amount for my wifes children we plan on giving away to charity all of our estates. I received a wonderful education from my parents and a couple of pieces of furniture the rest of their estate went to charity.

    I have spent a lot of time and effort in preserving this old piece of Victorian heritage although I have had offers from three different developers who would knock it down. Every year we lose a few more of the old heritage houses for one reason or another. I was hoping to create a trust that would protect this piece of Victoria heritage but I am really feeling that I may be one of the few that value it.

  92. Barrister:

    Welcome to the bizarro-world of the BC sandalistas. Impotently aggrieved, they would see it as wonderful if your 100k could be extracted from you through the tax system (under the threat of jail or worse) to be redistributed to the lumpen proletariat.

    Since you elect to give the money of your own free will you are a pariah and a monster.

  93. @ Hawk

    “f that’s all we got then we’re fucked anyhow when oil drops back to 30 bucks”

    No, you take the income from what you have got now and invest it in what will work for you in the future.

    But if you flush the investment you have now, then you will have nothing to live on either now or in the future.

  94. Hawk

    I fully expect that most vehicles in the next twenty years will not be powered by gasoline. But the real market for oil is for plastics which I was told where mostly oil based. Perhaps someone knows if that is still true today.

  95. Bman:

    By shipping by rail I assume you mean to the US and not to the west coast. I wonder though whether you get more spillage by rail than by pipeline.

    Frankly I would have thought that a better alternative is to process the oil here and ship gasoline and other products that have been process. at least with gasoline, as opposed to heavy crude you have a fighting chance of cleaning it up. I completely agree that shipping heavy crude by ocean tanker is a disaster waiting to happen.

  96. Amazing how we all survived all these years without another pipeline. If that’s all we got then we’re fucked anyhow when oil drops back to 30 bucks again or lower and solar energy takes over.

  97. ” I actually agree that this pipeline is a mistake”

    In what way? Canada has tens of billions invested in the tar sands. So what we gonna do? Write it off as a mistake? To do so would be economic insanity. So the oil has to be shipped, somehow, somewhere. The Feds have committed billions to improving safety in marine shipping of oil from the West coast, so the risk of a major marine oil spill after the transmountain expansion will likely be no more than it was before and hopefully it will be less.

    There is the possibility of refining or upgrading the bitumen before it is shipped. This makes it less toxic, apparently, or at least more volatile, so it just disappears into the atmosphere where we won’t worry about it. Maybe that’s a real possibility. But mostly the Greenies don’t care about solutions or economics. Rather it’s the virtue-signalling that matters. Showing how much we care for those cannibal islands in the South Pacific, and that nasty Maldives dictatorship, which paradoxically seems to be rising not sinking, worse luck.

  98. Don’t worry about the NDP, Barrister, they’re no worse than your Black Lives Matter or the Democratic Party back home. And the thing is, they can’t pass any tax measure without Green Party support, and the Green Party is essentially a middle-class, feel-good thing that would die quickly if they seriously inconvenienced folks by, say, instituting an air travel tax (it’s already expensive enough flying to Hawaii or Palm Springs) or a tax on large houses. Even another ten cents of tax on gasoline would probably sink them.

  99. Bman:

    i am sure that you understand that but what amazes me is the number of people in Victoria that seem to be living in a bubble. personally I actually agree that this pipeline is a mistake but what i am not hearing is an realistic alternatives. Keystone makes a lot more sense to me on a number of levels but there seemed to be equal opposition to it.

    Ontario’s manufacturing sector has been totally gutted. We dont even make bicycles anymore.

  100. I’m fascinated that Barrister would think it a good idea to boast about his charitable donations. Personally, I’m looking forward to the next time he mentions his carriage house and $20m fortune.

    Rule #1 for wealthy people – boasting about your money makes you look like an asshole.

  101. Bman – I read really quickly and did not bookmark that link and don’t recall the exact issue but it was a motion that won due to the absence of a MP or MLA- which the government of the day then refuted by introduce a motion to refute the motion.

    In terms of parliamentary convention, here is more information about the situation in BC: http://democracywatch.ca/20170511-b-c-party-leaders-and-lieutenant-governor-should-agree-on-eight-key-rules-for-minority-government/

  102. @ Totoro:

    “Resignation due to a non-confidence vote is a matter of parliamentary convention based on the principles of good government.”

    Or as stated in the House of Commons Compendium of Procedure

    Should the Government be defeated on a confidence question, under this convention the Prime Minister would normally be required to submit his or her resignation to the Governor General. The Governor General may either dissolve Parliament with a view to a general election or, much more rarely, invite the leader of another party in the House to form a new government.

    So you saying that the Province of BC follows a different “Procedure”, based perhaps on the Principle of Bad Government?

  103. “My wife and I have donated over a 100k every year to charities in B.C. ever since we moved here. It stops now”

    Sorry to deflate your ego but we have plenty of people here that donate to charity. As I mentioned, plenty of Americans are sick of the politics there, so hard to know exactly who you’re trying to “punish” and for what.

    Some highly successful tech entrepreneur friends that retired to Whistler wanted the Greens & NDP because of the corruption in BC & old-time focus on real estate as the one & only economic driver. There’s a risk with every gov’t transition but enough was enough.

  104. Barrister – yep, I understand that.

    Totoro – that’s helpful, thanks. When was the last time a government refuted a no confidence vote?

  105. Wolf:

    Glad to hear that you are going to chip in; please write a cheque today for 25K to the BC Children’s Hospital.

  106. Bman:

    The Feds have a simple problem. How do you pay for all those container shipments of goods that we see floating past us every day. The Americans, Germans and Chinese want something back in return.
    If we stop selling them overpriced condos and we stop selling oil exactly what are we going to give them for all the stuff they send us? The exchange rate reflects the reality of our trade situation. The guys in Ottawa are terrified of what happens if the standard of living starts to really drop here.

    It is days like today that I am almost glad that I am old enough to not have to worry about this.

  107. So, yes, if a government MLA misses a flight and the government loses a supply or confidence vote as a consequence, the governing party will have no choice but to resign.

    No, after looking at it thoroughly I can conclusively say this is wrong.

    Resignation due to a non-confidence vote is a matter of parliamentary convention based on the principles of good government.

    Parliamentary convention leaves what happens next is in the hands of the Premier and her party and if they don’t follow the principles of good government, primarily being able to demonstrate majority support, the Lieutenant Governor steps in and has the power to remove them, appoint a minority government with majority support, or call an election.

    This is why Premiers usually resign unless they can somehow regain majority support after a vote of non-confidence. This also means the government of the day is free to introduce a motion refuting the non-confidence vote when the missed flight or ill MLA is present. And this has happened in the past federally.

    When Joe Clark’s government was faced with this in the 70s that one vote wouldn’t have made a difference. There would have been no resignation could Flora’s vote have reestablished majority support.

    If there were no means of ambushing the government on a supply or confidence motion, the legislature would normally be empty.

    Incorrect, see above.

  108. If they’re anything like you, Barrister, BC’s better off if they stay home. I’m happy to chip in with my share as I’m sure caveat, Luke, and so many others (you know, all the people across the province that voted) would too. Better off this than in the coffers of the wealthy.

    “the money was earned in the US and so it is only fair that it stays there”
    But you can spend it here on a house, carpentry, car, local food, etc.? Maybe you should just take it all back to the US, but then who would peruse all our garage sales!?

  109. Entomologist – Agreed, and perhaps the federal liberals will bow to public pressure to kill the project. They are hated in Alberta anyway.

    Will be interesting to watch in any case.

  110. Caveat Emptor:

    A big tax on Rockland mansions would work for about a year at best. Driving money out of a province or a country for that matter has been tried a number of times in the past. I wonder if all the tradesmen that I have employed over the last few years would really agree with you. But, I appreciate the candor of you attitude.

    You will be pleased to know that two people I know that were thinking of relocating to BC just emailed me to say that that they are having second thoughts. One would have moved a small high tech company here with him. I guess Victoria’s win will be a loss for Texas. All those people with high paying jobs will not be buying up your houses.

    My wife and I have donated over a 100k every year to charities in B.C. ever since we moved here. It stops now; the money was earned in the US and so it is only fair that it stays there.. I hope that you are willing to take up the slack. Ask Luke to kick in his share.

  111. Bman – I wouldn’t be so sure.

    While I’m pretty neutral on the Kinder Morgan expansion overall (there’s already a pipeline there, right? But a leak or spill would indeed be potentially devastating to our marine environment), there are enough passionate greenies in Vancouver would would/will indeed consider it ‘a hill to die on’. So while you’re referring to the legal process, I fully expect a horde of fanatics to chain, cement, hurl (etc.) themselves as needed to the hills and docks of Burnaby to stop it.

  112. Aside from begging the federal Liberals to reconsider, what can the greens and NDP do re: Kinder-morgan?

    Any attempt to block it would be rendered invalid, as happened to the City of Burnaby when they tried to meddle.

    Notley will get her pipeline.

  113. Just my two cents but responsible government shouldn’t rest on one person missing a flight. If those are the rules, they need to change to permit proxy or absentee votes.

    I doubt the rule will be changed anytime soon. Parliamentary government is simply a game, each side working to dish the other. If there were no means of ambushing the government on a supply or confidence motion, the legislature would normally be empty. Certainly, the MLA’s don’t attend for the good of their health or to hear what the bastards on the other side have to say.

    So, yes, if a government MLA misses a flight and the government loses a supply or confidence vote as a consequence, the governing party will have no choice but to resign. On December 13, 1979, when Joe Clark’s government was faced with a vote on a subamendment to the budget motion, the late Flora MacDonald, the then Minister of External Affairs, was in London. So desperate was she to get back for the vote, she tried to charter a Concorde supersonic airliner, which however proved unavailable. As it turned out, her vote would have made no difference as the five Socreds in Parliament voted with the opposition to bring the Government down.

  114. @ Gwac,

    A frightening amount of people in BC would disagree with Notley’s little quip.

    Swapping bits of land back and forth to each other at ever higher prices is the road to the New Paradigm™! No chart please, Hawk.

    I thinking throwing light upon RE transactions and beneficial ownership is a step in the right direction. Speccer tax…will be interesting to see what they devise policy-wise. They seemed deliberately mum on the FBT issue.

  115. Not if everyone shows up

    Again, I don’t think that will work. Just my two cents but responsible government shouldn’t rest on one person missing a flight. If those are the rules, they need to change to permit proxy or absentee votes. Otherwise a snow storm might look like an opportunity which does not reflect the will of the majority of the people aka responsible government.

    I think if this is permitted to happen by parliamentary procedure the parties would either try to delay the vote through the debate process, or the government of the day would just introduce a subsequent motion of confidence when there was a full house.

  116. tackling speculation and money laundering…

    The key housing targets of NDP/Green as per their just ended press conference…

  117. CS, the Guardian article states:

    “as Albert’s paper points out … Since the 1990s, trade winds in the Pacific have been particularly intense. This has been driven partly by global warming and partly by climatic cycles – in particular the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

    “These trade winds have basically pushed water up into western Pacific and have driven these exceptionally high rates of [sea-level rise] in the Solomons,” said Albert. “The trade winds are partly a natural cycle but also the recent intensification is related to atmospheric warming.”

    Often the conspiracy sites mis-read scientific papers. They really do exaggerate the uncertainty in the complexity.

    Again, you just have to look at what’s happening right now in the world to see climate change in action. (and yes, if Mar-a-lago goes then I guess it’s one less place for US tax $ to go to waste)

  118. Minimum wage discussions are always interesting, especially since they almost alway miss the obvious…

    Minimum wage of $10/hr or $15/hr or even $20/hr is meaningless when a government allows any form of ‘Temporary Foreign Worker’ program.

    Any government that sets a Minimum wage and also allows a ‘Temporary Foreign Worker’ program is promoting legislated slavery.

    Without access to ‘Temporary Foreign Workers’, business owners would need to set their wage scales at a rate that would pay a living wage to Canadians and new immigrants, otherwise people would not apply for their jobs. But if a business owner is permitted to hire ‘Temporary Foreign Workers’ for minimum wage, then they can argue that no Canadians are willing to work for $11/hr.

    Wages in businesses such as restaurants typically account for about 32% of expenses. This means that an increase of $5/hr for employees will only cause expenses to increase to about 36%; consequently a cup of coffee might increase by 50 cents.

    The Canadian economy should not be built using legislated slavery which forces some Canadians to work for a government imposed minimum wage. Elimination of ‘Temporary Foreign Worker’ programs will force employers to pay a living wage to Canadian workers.

    No business should be permitted to profit from slavery.

  119. They don’t have the power to topple as far as I’m aware? In addition, it is unclear to me that they would win if a new election was called no matter who the leader is.

    Not if everyone shows up. My point was that initially the Libs might skip a chance to topple the government that came up due to a NDP or Green mistake.

    2 years into the NDP mandate with either a new Liberal leader or Christy holding on they will be itching to topple the government if the chance arises.

  120. “Are you sure that is what the rules say?”

    I have to admit I am woefully ignorant of the rules. Anybody familiar with parliamentary procedure in BC?

  121. On the topic of RE: 1861 San Juan Ave pending at 911K

    No price slashes there (of course not, they were only asking 749K).

    I guess I’d rather live on that part of San Juan than the part between Shelbournce and Torquay, but geez.

  122. @ Vicbot:

    CS, instead of sites that exaggerate the uncertainty, try some science web sites that talk about the consensus like NASA’s https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

    So first you call Professor Judith Curry’s website a conspiracy site, then, when I point out that she is a top climate scientist, you say she exaggerates uncertainty, suggesting instead I consult NASA.

    In fact I have not only looked at some of NASA`s research on climate change, I published some of it, including this unsolicited article by “Father of Climate Change Awareness,” James Hansen, which reveals just how uncertain the future of climate is.

    As for asking “Miami or Atlanta how the mayors are coping with rising sea levels already caused by climate change, why not ask the mayor of Oak Bay or Victoria, they both have ocean shore lines. Oddly, the sea level doesn’t seem to be rising much here. How come? Is the globe tilted or what? Or maybe the problem in Miami is that they made the mistake of building on a swamp.

    Anyhow, if Miami does sink below the waves, will anyone really care?

    And as for those South Pacific islands, if they’re sinking, it probably has nothing to do with climate change: that’s according to that far-right-wing conspiracy site, the Guardian newspaper.

  123. All this talk about the NDP killing real estate. Correct me if I’m wrong, but the biggest price drops happened on the Socred’s and Liberal’s watch, correct?

  124. they will be uniquely vulnerable to a by-election loss

    Yes. And to floor crossing as well.

    Losing the confidence of the house could be as simple as an NDP or Green MLA getting sick or missing a flight.

    Are you sure that is what the rules say? Seems so unlikely it could done like that given the governor general makes the end decision as to whether to call a new election, and who to appoint to power for that matter, based on the conventions of responsible government. I wonder if a non-confidence vote without all MLAs voting would meet this test. It think not.

    If so the Liberals won’t want to topple the new government till they have a new leader in place.

    They don’t have the power to topple as far as I’m aware? In addition, it is unclear to me that they would win if a new election was called no matter who the leader is.

    You can read a paper on the last time this scenario arose here: http://www.revparl.ca/35/3/35n3_12e_Neary.pdf

  125. Jerry – “HL Mencken was writing about Roosevelt’s New Deal when this was published but it is equally apropos of the New Democrats:”

    How much weight do we attach to the words of a long dead man who didn’t much like democracy, science, blacks, or Jews?

  126. @ LEO
    “Any way you look at the NDP governing BC, it equates to real estate stagnation and decline; just like happened in the 1970’s and the 1990’s.”
    I didn’t expect this analysis from you. I couldn’t agree with you more on your entire commentary. It’s bang on!

  127. HL Mencken was writing about Roosevelt’s New Deal when this was published but it is equally apropos of the New Democrats:

    ‘In the whole New Deal there was only one genuinely new and interesting idea, and that was the propostion that whatever Person A earns really belongs to Person B, where Person A is any industrious man or woman and Person B is any jackass”

  128. Leo M “Any way you look at the NDP governing BC, it equates to real estate stagnation and decline.”

    At this juncture real estate “stagnation and decline” would equate to improving affordability and should be welcomed, although as Leo S has pointed out the transition away from an economy dependent on housing speculation will involve some pain.

  129. CS, instead of sites that exaggerate the uncertainty, try some science web sites that talk about the consensus like NASA’s https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

    Or ask Miami or Atlanta how the mayors are coping with rising sea levels already caused by climate change:

    Climate change ‘the biggest challenge the city of Miami will ever face,’ mayor says
    http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article140667218.html

    “Let’s be clear, sea-level rise is a very serious concern for Miami-Dade County and all of South Florida,” Mayor Carlos Gimenez told the crowd
    http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article127251479.html
    Wednesday morning at the South Miami-Dade Cultural Arts Center during his annual State of the County address. “It’s not a theory. It’s a fact. We live it every day.”

    or: http://naturecanada.ca/what-we-do/bird-conservation/climate-change-birds/

    While we sit on our butts typing, people are spending $100Ms fighting flood waters, South Pacific islanders are getting re-settled, birds in Europe are failing to migrate, and the Great Barrier Reef is getting killed off. It’s not the future, it’s now.

  130. I do agree that the BC and Canadian economy are likely to stumble a bit in the next few years. I disagree that it will be mainly because of the NDP or the federal Liberals.

    The Vancouver and Toronto housing bubbles have gotten really big. They are going to deflate at some point and when they do they will exert a drag on the entire Canadian economy and especially on the BC economy where RE has been allowed to become the dominant sector. While government action could be the pin prick to start the deflation, the bubble could also pop all on its own as it did in the US.

  131. Too bad we can’t tax arrogance and entitlement

    You could start with a tax on avocados, plaid shirts, vaping devices, house flipping and Apple products…?

  132. “Ironically the average working person is going to end up paying for most of this.”

    Too bad we can’t tax arrogance and entitlement. You’d pay your fair share, to be sure.

  133. I dont have a problem with a higher minimum wage by the way. Perhaps they should start with a luxury tax of 80% on coffee served at coffee shops that would raise some more cash quick.

    A higher minimum wage will have virtually the same effect as an 80% tax on coffee served at coffee shops, since minimum wage is what most coffee shops currently pay. The net effect, would be something like an 80% increase in the price of coffee served in a coffee shop and a consequent reduction in sales resulting in fewer jobs, whereas what is needed is more jobs and hence, through an effect on labor demand, higher wages.

  134. Ironically the average working person is going to end up paying for most of this.

    Not at all. All we need is a big surtax on Rockland mansions wouldn’t you agree 🙂

  135. Luke

    You are not looking for a hand up you are looking for a hand out. Ironically the average working person is going to end up paying for most of this. I dont have a problem with a higher minimum wage by the way. Perhaps they should start with a luxury tax of 80% on coffee served at coffee shops that would raise some more cash quick.

    Noticed that Trudeau made it crystal clear that the pipeline is going through, end of story. I keep running into people that think that the NDP are going to stop the pipeline; the radio hosts and news people seem to have totally missed the fact that pipelines are a exclusive Federal jurisdiction.

  136. I think the best/simplest and most effective policy with real estate is a transparency law.

    Totally agree…

  137. I think the best/simplest and most effective policy with real estate is a transparency law. All residential development has open books like a public company. If a private home it’s open to the client. If a condo or multi family it’s open to the public. Never happen!

  138. CS those ludicrous arguments from conspiracy theory web sites don’t help your credibility.

  139. “I might be missing something, but the NDP will likely be appointed as the government and, as long as the Green NDP agreement lasts, they can’t be booted out and the four-year term will stand won’t it?”

    Losing the confidence of the house could be as simple as an NDP or Green MLA getting sick or missing a flight.

    There is very little margin for error when you hold 44 seats.

  140. No worries they have Weaver on board. He cut his teeth on running global climate models. If he can figure that out I am fairly confident he can understand some financial forecasting.

    If they’re gonna run the economy on the kind of model they used for predicting climate change, or in fact on any model other than a competitive free market, we’ll be in real trouble.

    ?w=500&h=375

  141. I might be missing something, but the NDP will likely be appointed as the government and, as long as the Green NDP agreement lasts, they can’t be booted out and the four-year term will stand won’t it?

    No crystal ball here, but they will be uniquely vulnerable to a by-election loss. I think there is a good chance that Clarke may resign. If so the Liberals won’t want to topple the new government till they have a new leader in place.

  142. You cannot compare economic data in isolation. Needs to be compared to other provinces at that time. Such as Alberta…or Canada as a whole.

    BC ended our last NDP era 4th in per capita GDP. 8 years into the Liberal government we were 5th in per capita GDP. Since then we have earned back to 4th place

  143. this government won’t last long

    I might be missing something, but the NDP will likely be appointed as the government and, as long as the Green NDP agreement lasts, they can’t be booted out and the four-year term will stand won’t it? The Liberals don’t have the votes to pass a non-confidence motion. My guess is the NDP will do what it can to keep the Green party on board.

  144. I’m a bit surprised to see the months of inventory for houses in Langford and Colwood has risen from April due to a drop mostly in sales this month.

    I expected that the exodus of prospective home owners/occupiers in the core would increase sale volumes in Langford and Colwood. It hasn’t.

    I surmise that this speculative housing market has forced out home owners/occupiers to such a point that most of the southern tip of the island is not affordable to many middle income households. Unlike Vancouver that has large suburbs where people can chose to live, Victoria’s small geographical size means we have run out of available alternative areas for middle income families to purchase.

    It took years for Vancouver and its suburbs to peak. Victoria being 1/10th the size seems to have peaked in a much shorter time period.

    On another note. One of our neighbors has decided to sell his business and move to the Niagara Falls area. He finds BC to be over regulated when it comes to doing business. How many others will follow?

  145. The idea that pro-labor parties always screw-up the economy seems questionable. True if a pro-labor government is also dogmatically socialist, then watch out. But a pro-labor government’s prime objective should be (a) to make sure that those of the laboring class have labor to labor at, and (b) that the wages of labor be improved. In other words, a pro-labor government should be for economic growth and increased labor productivity to support higher wages.

    So the question about a new NDP government in BC should be whether or not it adopts an intelligent, pragmatic approach to economics or follows a loonie course of increased government ownership and control — always guaranteed to lower efficiency and raise costs: remember Glenn Clark’s fast ferries, which they started building before the blueprints were complete and which created such large wakes that they were a danger to shipping and had to be sold off for pennies on the dollar — or adopt policies to stimulate growth in a competitive free market economy.

    A huge stimulus to the economy could be achieved by freeing up crown land for private forest management. Unfortunately, because of their ideological bent, it is unlikely the NDP would allow alienation of crown forest land, but at least they could lease tracts of land for the duration of one crop rotation on a basis that would make intensive forest management on the most productive lands profitable. In that way, not only would the quantity, but also, in time, the quality of BC’s timber harvest be greatly improved.

    In addition, they should consider privatizing crown land for the creation of entirely new settlements. Some could be devoted to luxury empty apartment units for Chinese and other foreign investors. Other new settlements could be designed in conjunction with rapid transit systems for easy access to adjacent centers of economic activity. A big international competition for proposals could be a way to generate some powerful new thinking about urban development and the future of BC’s economy.

  146. Yes the Liberals have had 16 years to let money launderers run wild making BC the corruption capital of North America. Such a nice title to own.Hopefully we’ll be a leader in dismantling it.

    Big business has already stopped investing here due to high living costs for employees. Part time jobs has been the recent job growth trend.

    Yes Bman, the NDP GDP was better than the Libs and they had a world commodity crisis during the 90’s that shut down mines and mills everywhere. Was not the BS the Libs blabbed everytime their record of corruption and scandal got called out. Delete,delete,delete.

  147. I love to see how developers react to this change of realm. The building costs are not getting cheaper, lower demand = lower supply, instead of lowering prices for new build. Trade jobs dry up, the younger one suffer the most. Miss the car payment for their trucks, cannot afford the craft beers and avocado toast. Service industry suffers. Again, most hosts are younger generation.

    At least we have high-tech sector and Hollywood north for the young blood, right??

  148. I am concerned that business in BC will suffer. Having people who have never been in business running the country makes me worry. Math and financial forecasting is really important and hopefully there will be a lot of this brought to bear in the decision-making, but I haven’t seen much evidence of this in the NDP’s platform or past performance.

    Relax totoro. Last time I checked Horgan and Weaver won’t be “running the country”. Also business people have a mixed record in government. Look no further than the country next door for a current example of that.

    Math and financial forecasting is really important and hopefully there will be a lot of this brought to bear in the decision-making, but I haven’t seen much evidence of this in the NDP’s platform or past performance.

    No worries they have Weaver on board. He cut his teeth on running global climate models. If he can figure that out I am fairly confident he can understand some financial forecasting. 🙂

  149. Gwac, do you suppose that BC’s economy would be doing as “well” as it is if the price of oil had never crashed?

  150. You cannot compare economic data in isolation. Needs to be compared to other provinces at that time. Such as Alberta…or Canada as a whole.

  151. Re Liberals being better economic managers:

    “Is it just the product of 16 years of propaganda from the jerb creatin’ liberals?”

    That’s my conclusion based on the statscan GDP data.

    Personally I think a lot has to do with when party is in power. For instance economic statistics for GWB in the US are TERRIBLE but a lot of that has to do with ending his term in a deep recession (for which he should take some blame but by no means all the blame)

  152. I despised the NDP for the fast ferry fiasco. But all this talk of NDP being associated with bad economy is myth. No party is “totally responsible” for a growing economy (it’s affected by the global economy, federal business incentives, interest rates, etc.)

    The reason why all the urban centres in BC voted in NDP or Greens is because of Liberals made bigly bad decisions on pinning the economy to RE & resources. The economy needs to be more diverse than that. If the economy falters, it’s more the Liberals’ fault for making it a 1 trick pony.

    BC’s Economy: Whose Was Best?
    Socreds. NDP. Libs. Who oversaw the strongest economy? (Hint, not Gordon Campbell).
    https://thetyee.ca/Views/2009/04/23/BCEcon/

    “in light of criticism fostered by B.C.’s business community, and perpetuated by Gordon Campbell’s BC Liberals — not once during the New Democrats’ tenure did British Columbia record negative economic growth.”

    The Era of Tax Cut Stupidity that Starved BC: how the BC Liberals squandered a historic chance to strengthen this province.
    http://therealstory.ca/2012-02-27/bc-politics/will-mcmartins-back

    “The province’s newly-minted BC Liberal government, sworn into office in June 2001, was presented with an historic opportunity to reap windfall revenues from the development of British Columbia’s abundant natural resources … It did not happen. Instead, the BC Liberals deliberately enacted massive tax cuts — intended to benefit the province’s wealthiest families and individuals, and most-profitable corporations — and effectively knee-capped government revenues.”

    Barrister, if you really want to hide all your money in the US, then it would make sense to sell and move back. A lot of Americans are disillusioned with US medical/climate/education policies, so there are a lot of people that would trade places with you.

  153. Just to inject some facts in the discussion:

    Annual average GDP growth 1992-2001 (9 years) 2.8% per year
    Annual average GDP growth 2001-2015 (14 years) 2.7% per year

    The economic growth under the two parties has been approximately the same

    Data from BC Economic accounts 1981-2015 http://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/data/statistics/economy/bc-economic-accounts-gdp
    I used the GDP data based on constant 2007 dollars.

    The oft repeated claim that economic growth has been better under one party or another is fundamentally a partisan claim not well supported by data.

  154. If the NDP form a government with Green support, it seems they might do us all a favor by terminating the Site C dam, which by some accounts is an economic disaster. In fact, the Liberals should be glad for the NDP to rid them of this embarrassment, in return for doing which they would no doubt blame the NDP for wasting billions, i.e., the billions already expended on a dumb project.

  155. “My carpenter figures that the owner is going to end up with a beautiful manor house on almost a half acre for less than the price of a knockdown in the Uplands.”

    Speaking of knockdowns in the Uplands, there’s one offered on Uplands road on 1.2 acres for $3.2 million. The brochure presents the property as a place for your new home, though it acknowledges that if you’re some kind of hillbilly, you could live in the existing 4-bed, 4-bath, Cotswold cottage-style home, if you really have to slum it.

    This seems a prime example of the dopiness of Oak Bay’s zoning bylaws. The property cannot be subdivided and, although its within in 150 feet of the roar of traffic on Cadboro Bay Road, which detracts for the charm of the vast garden area, it cannot be developed for multi-family use, although it is an ideal location for a 15- to 30-thousand square foot mansion-style, three or four story apartment building, which would still have something like 30,000 square feet of grounds.

  156. So much hysteria on this blog. Why don’t you wait and see what happens before you take your ball and go home?

    There is no margin for error when you control 44 seats. Unless the NDP can somehow persuade a socred or two to cross the floor, this government won’t last long.

    Furthermore, does anybody have any “facts” to support the notion that the NDP destroyed the economy in the 1990s? GDP growth seemed to be normal.

    Is it just the product of 16 years of propaganda from the jerb creatin’ liberals?

  157. For less then 24 hr, we already expected BC economy going into a toilet AND have a great excuse for the NDP. 5 stages of grief in record time.

    First we got Lisa Helps to run the city, now we will have NDP for the province….

  158. Local Fool has it correct. The speculative housing market cannot last forever and there is no way to wind it down without big pain in the economy. The NDP may accelerate that a bit and they will take the blame despite them not being at fault for ratcheting it up but such is the court of public opinion.

  159. Hawk

    I would not invest one dime in any asset in BC while the NDP is in power.

    I may be wrong but I am calling the top to this housing market within 6 months. I think those who want cheaper housing your time is coming.

    The NDP destroys wealth. History has shown that.

  160. Helping those who need help is a good goal but efficiency and ROI on invested tax dollars is really important.

    I’m looking forward to reviewing the NDP budget when we get there. If it is illogical I’ll be contacting the Green party.

    I’ve become a member which gives me a right to participate in public policy development. I recommend it to those who are interested in direct action and concerned about the direction the next four years takes:
    http://www.bcgreens.ca/membership

  161. The bubble was blowing up regardless. The pumpers are just looking for a scapegoat. If Christy didn’t rob from Hydro and ICBC plus allowing foreign real estate flippers /money launderers property transfer taxes she would have been so deep in the hole it would have been an NDP blow out.

    Maybe the pumpers need to move back to Ontario or the US cause the whining is already getting nauseating.

  162. Luke someone has to pay the bills. We are about to see why no NDP government in Canada has been successful. Spend, spend spend…. Business and wealthy move their money elsewhere. Unemployment and deficit go up. Credit agents downgrade and the cycle get uglier. Voters are naïve and end up eventually paying the price thinking there is a free ride for all those juicy promises.

    Thankfully with only a 1 seat majority and Weaver being somewhat fiscally responsible, he will pull the plug before he is dragged into the NDP cesspool.

  163. Any way you look at the NDP governing BC, it equates to real estate stagnation and decline; just like happened in the 1970’s and the 1990’s.

    The NDP will kill the economy first and that means unemployment and that means forced sales of houses by unemployed people. For example, taxing coal exports will simply mean coal buyers will go elsewhere because coal is an international commodity, so if BC’s coal is more expensive per BTU, then buyers will just buy from Australia or China instead of BC. So, coal mining infrastructure in BC and related employment will shrink, just like during the NDP reign in the 1990’s.

    And…

    The NDP will build 114,000 new rental units over the next 10 years; that’s 31 new units per day, every day for the next 10 years. Plus they might build more university campus housing. What does that mean? It means huge debt for our children and grandchildren through life-long higher taxes; it means fewer renters for basement suites as ‘mortgage helpers’, it means a rapid influx of the unemployable into BC for the NDP handouts, but it also means real estate investors will be forced to lower rents to attract tenants and that will cause real estate prices to decline with empty unrentable houses, basement suites, and condos.

    And…

    Unemployment means an exodus of skilled workers from BC, just like in the 1990’s; people will be selling their properties as the move from BC.

    It’s not just BC where this happens; anyplace in Canada with an NDP government, has had or is having, similar problems.

    The economy always has momentum, and momentum does not turn instantly, it takes about 24 months to either crash or re-build. We are in for about 24 months of slow-down then a few years of stagnation before we even begin to re-build. Seems to me we are entering at least 6 years of economic doom and tears.

    Regardless of whether NDP governments cause economic decline or if the electorate elects an NDP government during declines in the economic cycle, it seems that BC is now set for several years of economic decline under an NDP government.

  164. Barrister: Well isn’t this a prime example of how the wealthy don’t want to give the disenfranchised a leg up. It’s about time, imo, that the tables were turned in BC in favour of the less advantaged. The wealthy can afford to give a little bit back. Starting with a $15/ hour min wage. It’s called being selfless not selfish and we could use more of that in this world.

    As for their environmental record I didn’t even mention the pipeline, but the Liberals were the ones who wanted to turn Fish lake into a dead zone for incorrectly named Prosperity mine. Which even pro-environmentally destructive Harpers government overturned.

    High time for this welcome change, and btw I’m glad the NDP don’t have a majority as it’s a good thing they will all be kept on their toes.

    As for the housing market, maybe now I stand to loose equity but if it means that others will have more hope I’m fine with that. Maybe think about how it’s better for all of us if the whole community is healthier? I think a lot of the despair we see in our communities is an indirect result of too many years of elitist liberal policy. Take your money and head to Carmel, Barrister. With that attitude your kind is not wanted here.

  165. Luke:

    Make sure that you sign up as soon as possible for your assisted public housing unit. If you are waiting for them to stop the pipeline you might want to spend a bit of time getting familiar with the constitution.

    At the moment I am feeling pleased with the fact that i decided against moving any money to B.C. or to Canada for that matter.

  166. For Something Completely different:

    One of the old Rockland manor houses that was a six unit apartment rental was bought a few months back. Transparently all the tenants got eviction notices. The carpenter that I used to build my library just got hired to do a major renovation to the interior to reconvert it back to a single family home.

    My carpenter figures that the owner is going to end up with a beautiful manor house on almost a half acre for less than the price of a knockdown in the Uplands. Kinda makes sense.

  167. Looking at how Mr. Weaver has come up with his policy, I have some confidence they’ve made a good reasoned decision to join with the NDP. I have little doubt that the NDP, who are not used to being in power, will be far easier and more flexible to work with. I expect the corporate/union donations will be banned and that proportional representation will be up next.

    As far as housing goes, I don’t know what will happen. Hopefully money will be put into developing more affordable housing and not the stupid $400 renter’s credit that was, imo, an obvious vote grab. That credit is just terrible policy and takes a significant sum and disperses into such little piece that the benefit is watered down to almost nothing. There is no income testing in it, and the logic behind it was actually stated as “homeowners get a grant, why shouldn’t renters” with no consideration to the fact that there is a second tax on those with a secondary residence and homeowners fund their own grant and property taxes will simply be raised in the municipal budget to meet the grant obligations. The renter’s grant comes from money that should really be doing more for affordable housing for people who need it the most.

    I am concerned that business in BC will suffer. Having people who have never been in business running the country makes me worry. Math and financial forecasting is really important and hopefully there will be a lot of this brought to bear in the decision-making, but I haven’t seen much evidence of this in the NDP’s platform or past performance.

    I don’t know how a formal agreement minority government will function, but unless the agreement falls apart somehow I don’t see why the NDP wouldn’t be able to last the entire term.

    The Green party really has a lot of power now – I’m pretty sure they will get official party status.

  168. I’m betting Christy is burning all her files and smashing all the hard drives right about now before the ndp has a chance to expose all the scams.

    Lights are flickering in Fairfield tonight. I think running all those paper shredders simultaneously is overloading the electrical grid.

  169. I’m betting Christy is burning all her files and smashing all the hard drives right about now before the ndp has a chance to expose all the scams

  170. Regarding the NDP Green alliance and housing policy, there are a couple of things to do to determine whether an election platform, particularly in a coalition, will be become policy.

    Is it legally permissible, or can it become legally permissible. E.g, Liberal promise to tax coal exports might not stand up to trade law
    Can the government pay for it. There are lots of policies politicians would love to fund, but only so much money to go around
    Is it provincial jurisdiction? The province can do NADA on federal interest rate policy, but can tax foreign ownership differentially.
    Does it make political sense? Lots of things are written in platforms to rile up a supporter group (e.g. barbaric practice hotline) that have as little hope of getting implemented as my winning 649.
    Is there a reasonable way to do it? It may sound simple, however sometimes it may take 5 legislative changes to allow for a new policy, and that may take a couple of years with consultation requirements
    Do both parties support it enough? Kinda similar to deciding on a new piece of artwork with a loved one.
    Was the part of the platform well thought out, written and supported by leadership? Like anything else these things can be drafted in a rush and things slip through. Like transit referendums that blow up in the next election cycle.
    What isn’t written in the platform. This is almost as important as what is. If a party hasn’t made a statement on something, it gives them a latitude to be creative, or to do what they wanted to but didn’t want to raise a stink in the election about. See lots of the NDP platform for this,
    If a party doesn’t think that it will be in power and wants to raise legitimate issues for the electorate or other parties to consider, then they might go for shock value on the platform. Parts of the Green platform are like this,

    A lot to consider when translating to what actually comes forward for cabinet and Treasury Board to consider once they are sworn in.

    Underestimated, and equally as important, will be the change in politicos who hang around the politicians as appointees or senior civil servants. Over time with a government these people get entrenched and the quality of decisions goes down and the requirement to be politically connected goes up. A lot of these people will depart over the next while to be replaced by NDP connected people (there are very few Green politicos who would be suitable to work in govt). The NDP people won’t be any better or worse, but they will be less fossilized – and less fixated on industry connections -than some of those currently there.

  171. It’s not a fixed supply. Lot’s of condos on the horizon. Most of which will be up for rent. I don’t think the subsidy will at all affect the $3000/month SFH rental market that might qualify as fixed supply.

  172. @ Oceantrader

    Unlikely. A tenant in a basement suite or similar situation where the landlord has the same address, already can be correlated by the CRA when both parties separately file their taxes using the same address.

    Meaning, I doubt there are that many landlords hiding their tenants in their basements. The risk/reward ratio just isn’t favorable IMO.

  173. I think Barrister nailed it about the $400 grant being used to track where people are renting. Its a nominal amount, but enough that tenants will want to claim it. Could put owner of basement suites and other places flying under the radar in a bit of a predicament. Might be enough for some landlords to close up shop, putting tenants on the street. Could happen?

  174. And local fool is correct of course that $400/year is a drop in the bucket and doesnt move the needle.

    Kind of like the home owners grant. Did it increase house prices when it was introduced? Maybe a teensy bit but not enough for anyone to notice

  175. AG, real life is more nuanced than question 1 of economics 101. Not all subsidies are created equal.
    Let’s assume there’s a subsidy in which you pay 95% of the rent and the 5% is charged to the government. In that case you are correct. You as a renter find yourself suddenly with an extra 5% per month to spend and some of that 5% will go into higher rents.

    However what the NDP are proposing is not like that at all. You still pay the same rent every month and at the end of the year you get $400 back. That is not tied to rent in people’s minds and will not change anyone’s monthly budget. No one is going to go out and speculatively pay a higher rent on the expectation of getting it back 12 months later.

    However even in the first example, if it was a direct subsidy, you probably should have read your own example which says “consumers pay P2* minus the subsidy (which is lower than in the initial situation).”

    In other words, even in the case of a direct subsidy the renter will pay a net lower rent (and the landlord collects a net higher rent). They would split the subsidy.

  176. If you introduce demand subsidies into a system with fixed supply, prices rise.

    I suppose literally true, but is $400.00 per year really a meaningful subsidy? That might be the equivalent of someone’s annual coffee bill, Gordon Campbell’s bi-weekly alcohol tab, or John Horgan’s weekly anger management classes bill.

    $10 per day child care is what I would think of as a real subsidy. Pacifica Housing might be another. Tuition or ferry fare freezes.

    But this? I really don’t see this $400 making a difference. It’s just too small. It’s a little election “goody” for renters…agreed that it’s questionable policy, but for reasons other than its potential to increase rents.

  177. How is increasing taxation on landlords going to increase supply?

    Where in the platform does it say increase taxes on landlords to increase supply?

    They are proposing to increase supply by building more units and reinvesting in co-ops

  178. Leo – I like your work here, but you don’t understand basic economics. If you introduce demand subsidies into a system with fixed supply, prices rise. You don’t need an increase in the number of units demanded to do that.

    For a really simple example, look at question 1b in this econ exam.
    http://webs.wofford.edu/mcarthurjr/Eco_342/e342p3A.pdf

    Now imagine that the supply curve is even steeper (which it likely is because supply is fixed in the short term). You can see that nearly all the subsidy eventually ends up as an increase in prices (rent).

    It’s really Econ 101, which is why I find it amazing that this policy is a part of the NDP platform. A far more sensible policy would be to give subsidies to homebuilders, or just make it easier to build.

  179. The $400 subsidy will push rents up across the province

    It won’t. And the rest of the NDP/Green policies favour renters and new rental supply so overall it will push down on rents.

  180. From same article:

    Weaver on Friday speculated that the procedural rules of the house will be redrafted to minimize the occasions where the Speaker will be called on to use tie-breaking power to expedite passage of legislation and budgets.

  181. Excerpt from Vaughn Palmer’s column:

    She could go through the motions of clinging to office: appointing a cabinet, calling the legislature into session, presenting a throne speech that would be dead on arrival before meeting defeat at the hands of the combined opposition.

    Or she could accept the Weaver-Horgan fait accompli and announce this week that she will resign as premier (though not as Liberal leader) and recommend that the lieutenant-governor call on Horgan to form a government.

    The first option is entirely in keeping with the delusional strategy she and her party followed through the provincial election. The second, a dignified bow to the inevitable, would help party and province get on with turning the page.

    It will say much about Clark, which route she chooses.

    http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-pipeline-politics-key-to-weaver-weaving-historic-deal

  182. Should be a 100% tax. Canadian land should be for Canadians, permanent residents, and people with valid work permits.

  183. Count me among the landlords who will throw in the towel if they dump leases. I’d say rent will go up by a lot of they do a lot of what they’ve said they’d do.

  184. This is extremely good news. I’ll be so happy fto see that smile wiped off Chrustys face and her ego deflated. A 30% foreign tax and clamp down on money laundering are welcome. Finally a change after 16 corrupt Liberal years that ruined many people’s lives in this Province. Interesting times ahead … hopefully for the greater good of many who have suffered too long under the Liberal reign

  185. Not all landlords are waiting with itchy palms to increase rent. If anyone thinks in those terms for a measly $400 then they should be renting storage units and not dealing with people’s homes. It also costs less to keep a known quantity good tenant and build a good reputation than manage high turnover.

    That’s not the point at all. The $400 subsidy will push rents up across the province. Obviously there are limits to how much a landlord can raise the rent for a particular tenant. But the overall level of rents will rise as tenants continue to compete for the same number of units.

    It will start off as a subsidy for tenants, and after a few years it will end up as a subsidy for landlords. That’s because the amount of rental accommodation is sticky and unlikely to increase dramatically vs population.

    It’s just bad policy.

  186. One thought, the $400 rent rebate means that every tenant will report where he is renting. better start reporting the suit income and also they should make it easy for capital gains to be levied.

    One of the neighbours just booted out their tenant figuring that it is just not worth the bother.

    I am just glad that I am not working, the tax increases should be interesting.

  187. “How could you possibly close the so-called “fixed term lease” loophole? I mean can they make it illegal to enter into a contract?”

    Yes. If the RTA did not provide for fixed-term tenancies, then a fixed-term tenancy would be of no effect and would be treated as a periodic tenancy. The RTA provides that landlords and tenants cannot contract out of the Act.

  188. Can’t wait to see the exodus of foreign money launderers as they jack up the tax to 30% and make it province wide. Then deal with the scumlord’s gouging and speculators.

    Let’s make BC affordable again. 🙂

  189. They will fix the housing mess by destroying the economy.

    Hilarious!

    While that’s kind of a right vs left exchange, I think there is an element of truth to this. There is no way, and I repeat, no way you’re going to get the BC economy back into balance without severe pain, perhaps to an extent that might seem catastrophic.

    But it was always inevitable. This “economy” has become more skewed, polarized, and is now substantially based on an unsustainable model of real estate speculation. It’s not going to go on forever. Neither the Chinese, Russians, Iranians, nor the Zeta Reticulans are going to hold this up for you. Real estate ultimately remains local.

    A frequenting provocateur here in several recent threads opined, “This market’s going to the moon.”

    No. Ain’t gonna happen folks. As sure as the sun rises in the morning, no market goes to the moon. Ever. Never has. Never will.

    I still think people are giving the political parties too much credit. If the RE markets tanks shortly hereafter (not convinced it will, yet), I would speculate (haha) it was due to the same forces that drove everything up – speculation.

    A highly speculative market doesn’t respond to fundamentals for as long as it can get away with it; it responds to guesses on what’s going to happen next – economically, politically, socially or financially. If you’re a speccer, would this election cause you to alter your forecast?

    In the end, it’s irrelevant. This will unwind, one way or another. I’d rather see it happen now, than wait another 5 years for it to do it all on its own volition. It would have been great, IMO, if everything unwound in 2008. But, it didn’t. Instead of learning from the Americans, we just doubled down on housing, and proclaimed all kinds of convincing reasons why “it’s different here”. That’s when the “we’re special” was really brought to bear. And we’re still doing it. And – here we are.

    AG, I hope you enjoyed that shower.

  190. They will fix the housing mess by destroying the economy.

    Hilarious! That’s what the right will stick to but it’s the Liberals who spent 16 years intertwining the BC economy with real estate and helped fuel it by encouraging foreign investment and turning a blind eye to money laundering. Things will be different immediately with both NDP and Green targeting foreign investment in real estate and money laundering. There should be lots of supply for all those retiring boomers flooding in from Toronto, starting tomorrow! And yes the economy will go to crap and the NDP will be blamed for ruining the economy but all they’ll be doing is removing the market skewing factors which disadvantage the average person in BC.

    http://vancitycondoguide.com/ndp-green-party-team-potential-landslide-move-housing/

  191. Now, that’s a good analysis Leo_S

    I only wish the agents would not screw around with the days-on-market indicator. With re-listing and auctions it’s tough to get consistency in what the DOM is indicating.

  192. “basic economics tells us that most of that $400 will ultimately end up in landlords’ pockets via increased rent.”

    Not all landlords are waiting with itchy palms to increase rent. If anyone thinks in those terms for a measly $400 then they should be renting storage units and not dealing with people’s homes. It also costs less to keep a known quantity good tenant and build a good reputation than manage high turnover.

  193. How could you possibly close the so-called “fixed term lease” loophole? I mean can they make it illegal to enter into a contract?

  194. Hilarious seeing the chicken littles screaming the sky is falling and trying to jack up their rents BS. We finally have someone who isn’t in the developers and corporations back pockets.

    Once the province sees the alliance works and their 1990’s fearmongering was all for not, any new election will swing to NDP.

    Libs will panic to roast Christy and bring back Gordy Tyabji. 😉

  195. Bye-bye wild wild west. Real estate party is officially coming to an end. Looks like what is happening in Toronto currently will be coming soon here.

  196. NDP housing platform:

    I wrote about their platforms here: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2017/05/09/a-changing-of-the-guard/

    As I mentioned before, basic economics tells us that most of that $400 will ultimately end up in landlords’ pockets via increased rent.

    Very unlikely as I mentioned before. Rents are set by demand and demand is not going to increase from a tax credit. This is not like some subsidized rent scheme where the government pays part of the rent monthly. Renters just get a bit extra back at the end of the year.

  197. AG also building all those affordable housing will only drive up housing costs. Labour/material is already expensive and scarce. More government employees also in Victoria will be hired so that does not help. Going to be interesting.

  198. Thankfully it’s unlikely to last too long. – AG

    I doubt the Libs make an immediate effort to overthrow the NDP-Green government. One thing is that an immediate rematch might not go in their favour. The other thing is that they may well be looking for a new leader soon.

    Also assuming this NDP/Green thing actually flies I also expect a spate of liberal MLA resignations. Quite a few of them won’t be willing to bide their time in opposition.

  199. This is awesome news for landlords. As I mentioned before, basic economics tells us that most of that $400 will ultimately end up in landlords’ pockets via increased rent.

    Keep in mind rent controls are still in force, and they have vowed to close the FTL loophole.

    Besides…would you derive a lot of benefit from an additional $33.33 per month?

  200. “Providing a new renter’s rebate of $400 dollars per rental household per year.”

    This is awesome news for landlords. As I mentioned before, basic economics tells us that most of that $400 will ultimately end up in landlords’ pockets via increased rent.

    Maybe things aren’t so bad after all… 🙂

  201. Christy is never there so no fear about too few votes. Change is good and looking forward to cleaning out the insider trash that’s gutted our system.

  202. I think it’s Christy whose getting sick now that her two choices are to resign , or resign after the budget fails passing. Syanora Christy! 😉

    “Weaver says stable jobs in BC won’t be based on ‘boom and bust’ real estate speculation”

  203. Liberals still have the biggest war chest so NDP/Green will not want to go to the polls soon.

    Perhaps. But their war chest didn’t seem to help them much, this time around.

    @ Gwac: Interesting thought. Was a regular on harbour air about a year ago. Always nixing flights due to bad weather. Seems like a lousy excuse to call an election, haha.

  204. NDP/Greens better hope no one gets sick or misses a plane or something. A non confidence vote can happen at any time the legislation is sitting. It will be 43 to 43 with the speaker casting tying votes. So one NDP does not show up and they lose 43 to 42 and than Weaver will decide if he wants an election or backs the liberal….Statistically it will be impossible to keep this together for the NDP. Someone will not show up one day.

  205. NDP and Greens motivation to keep together as long as possible is party money…Liberals still have the biggest war chest so NDP/Green will not want to go to the polls soon.

  206. NDP housing platform:

    Building homes:

    Building 114,000 affordable rental, non-profit and co-op housing units through partnerships over 10 years, building on public land where available. As much as possible, we will build with innovative BC-manufactured wood products, creating new markets for BC wood products and new jobs in BC’s forest industry-based communities.

    Protecting renters:

    Providing a new renter’s rebate of $400 dollars per rental household per year.
    Closing the BC Liberals’ “fixed term lease” loophole and ensure controls on rent increases are enforced.
    Passing legislation requiring fair treatment during renovations and demolitions of rental properties.

    Taxing speculators:

    Closing loopholes that let speculators dodge taxes and hide their identities, and charging a yearly 2% absentee speculators’ tax to crack down on empty homes.
    Directing revenue from the absentee speculators’ tax into a Housing Affordability Fund.
    Establishing a multi-agency task force to fight tax fraud and money laundering in the BC real estate marketplace.

  207. Sorry, giant pernicious corporations who all stuffed Christy’s skirt full of cash. The Wild West was fun while it lasted.

  208. Won’t last too long? Ha! That’s what some said about the housing run up but here we are; the usual expression of one’s hopes as reality. Better stay in the shower for awhile AG, maybe gwac will join you for a sponge bath.

    I look forward to seeing them try to fix this housing mess.

  209. Greens and NDP? I need to go take a shower.

    Thankfully it’s unlikely to last too long. Hopefully they don’t do too much damage in the short time that they have.

  210. NDP & Green government announced

    Agreement ratification details to be released tomorrow.

    Well, there’s some fodder for this forum.

  211. 44 to 43. this will not last long and maybe that is what weaver wants to save face that he tried going with the NDP first.

  212. Green + NDP housing policy. Can you imagine?

    Greens definitely had some strong policy positions on housing. NDP I’m not so sure, other than the usual “more social housing” party line.

    I would wonder what a Green/Lib housing policy would look like. They seem, based on what I read on their policy platforms, to be almost diametrically opposed.

  213. Green + NDP housing policy. Can you imagine?
    The question is, can the whole thing hold together long enough to get to housing? I imagine political contributions are first and then a debate about PR. Hope they push through some housing policy before the next election!

  214. This is the core: “District is one of ‘Victoria’, ‘Victoria West’, ‘Oak Bay’, ‘Esquimalt’, ‘View Royal’, ‘Saanich East’, ‘Saanich West'”

  215. Apparently “the core” can be defined with sufficient precision to produce a line on your graph.

    What is “the core”?

  216. Face it, Canada—you’re a real estate addict, and no one wants a cure. Canada’s housing mania is a collective lunacy fuelled by debt and irrational hope

    Fundamentally, Canada’s real estate mania is a financial phenomenon. It’s a collective lunacy fuelled by households taking on more and more debt to bet on what they hope will be a profitable investment.

    We’ve seen this story before—in Japan in the early 1990s, in the United States, Ireland and Spain several years later—and it doesn’t end well. In each case, big run-ups in real estate prices and mortgage debt gave way to devastating recessions, followed by painfully slow recoveries.

    The weight of that debt is going to suffocate young families for decades to come and drag on economic growth.

    There’s no easy way out, my friend. But there are things we could do. As with any detox program, we have to start by admitting that we have a problem. Then we have to admit we have all the tools to solve the problem if only we choose to do so. Yes, I know, it’s going to hurt a little, but here’s one final truth: It will only get worse if we wait.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-magazine/robmagface-it-canadayoure-a-real-estate-addict-and-no-one-wants-acure/article35105002/

  217. Leo:

    Thank for the numbers and, in particular, breaking down the core SFH from the rest. Terrible weather today since my wife has convinced me that we need to be out gardening. I was sorta hoping for pouring rain.

  218. I concur with huevos, even though I hadn’t even noticed until you mentioned it. 😉

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