May 8 Market Update
Weekly stats update courtesy of the VREB.
| May 2017 |
May
2016
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Unconditional Sales | 193 |
1289
|
|||
| New Listings | 361 |
1423
|
|||
| Active Listings | 1797 |
2406
|
|||
| Sales to New Listings | 53% |
91%
|
|||
| Sales Projection | 889 | ||||
| Months of Inventory |
1.9 |
||||
Exactly the same rate of new listings as this week last year, but 31% fewer sales. Primarily still because last year a potential buyer had 750 additional properties to choose from, so the ratio of viable candidates to the dregs was higher. However this is the first month I’ve seen where sales are down more than listings. What to watch for is if months of inventory start increasing compared to last year, then we will know the market is backing off the record pace of last year. So far they are just about identical.
One difficulty that buyers still have in today’s market is figuring out which properties are set up for multiple offers. Of course an agent can tell you that, but it would still be nice to see from the listing whether the price is realistic or just a tease to get the frenzy going. This is indicated in the “Member to member” notes field in the listing information but there is no standard way to indicated a delayed offer listing, with every agent doing it a little bit differently. One reasonably good measure is if these notes say that “clauses 5aiii and 10b are deleted”. What are those clauses?
5 a iii – The seller agrees to pay the listing brokerage a gross commission of X of the sale price of the property if an offer to purchase is obtained from a prospective buyer during the term of this contract who is ready, willing and able to pay the listing price and agrees to other terms of this contract, even if the seller refuses to sign the offer to purchase
10b – The seller agrees to accept an offer made during the term of this contract by a person ready, willing and able to purchase on the terms set out in this contract
In other words, the seller is not obligated to take a full price offer with no conditions and if such an offer arrives, is not obligated to pay commission to the listing agent. Not all properties that have this note result in multiple offers, but it’s one clue that the sellers may be expecting an above-ask selling price. Would be nice if the information about delayed offers was required to be public to avoid wasting peoples’ time on Realtor.ca with unrealistically low list prices.
Home Capital is no small thing. How is will change the market is yet to be seen.
http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/home-capital-is-a-minor-meltdown-thats-left-a-major-mark-on-canada
I think she is likable and as well. And quite competent and well-spoken.
I’m not sure what happened exactly, but the liberals have been in power a long time and at some point the desire for change rises. And I do think the donations issue is a real problem that was widely publicized.
Guess I’ll wake up to the results in the am but Mr. Weaver may well get a significant position in the new government.
New post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2017/05/09/a-changing-of-the-guard/
I think Christy is likable enough. But too much corruption..
Liberals elected in 41. The greens got their 3. Most the NDP can get is 43. So Liberals have a small chance getting to 44. Doubt this. This is a minority and will probably result in another election sooner rather than later. Hopefully the liberals will get someone more likeable.
Not a done deal yet. Really still too close to know. 42:42:3 and still quite a few polling stations have not reported.
43 41 3
Liberals get to try govern. Will need help. I do not think the NDP or greens want an election soon. They have a lot less cash than the liberals. This is going to be interesting.
Lib elected in 40/NDP 38/green 2. So this is nearly done
Nice summary totoro.
CBC said advance votes often get counted last. Dunno why.
I thought all advance votes are included in the initial count of votes in the proper electoral district on election night.
Tonight doesn’t include the approx 20% of early votes…might really make a difference. Early voters motivated to kick incumbents out?
Seems like this is what happens:
https://www.pressreader.com/canada/vancouver-sun/20170419/281646780015867
I’m just razzing ya Vicbot. 😉
Our household voted for Weaver too. Greens deserve a presence.
And got North Saanich and now leading by 1% in Cowichan.
Usually the party with the most seats gets fist dibs until they lose a no confidence or major vote like budget
42 42 3
Weaver sweeps Oak Bay – Gordon Head. More than double the votes of the next candidate.
I thought whichever parties form a coalition would take power. So could be LIB-GREEN, NDP-GREEN, LIB-NDP
So if nothing changes. Liberals take power but need greens to stay in. If that fails NDP will get a chance if that fails we get another election. Assuming we stay lib 43/ndp42
The voters have spoken. Liberals are in the penalty box.
Liberal elected in 39 leading in 4
NDP elected in 36 leading in 6
Christy days are numbered.
“Our household also voted Weaver – in our riding – just so everyone knows where we live.”
Wolf – Gawd do you ever not take a shot at somebody?
The reason for the words “in our riding” is because every time we told people we were voting for Weaver, people would always ask “In what riding?” because they assumed that we were voting for any Green candidate – but we were specifically supporting his work.
Paranoia will destroya.
I think they’d work with either party depending on the position taken as the Greens strike me as quite rational, but there has been a bit of tension between Mr. Horgan and Mr. Weaver.
You can read their platform here: http://www.bcgreens.ca/platform
The align more closely with the NDP on many, but not all, issues. They are not union or business oriented, more science/fact-based policies as you might expect and a significant emphasis on environment.
No nothing about the greens. Who would they work with Liberals or NDP?
It is looking like 43/42/2 so whoever the greens will work with will hold power.
Absolutely. I would not have thought it a probable outcome but hopefully…
“Agree Totoro – our household voted for Green Andrew Weaver in our riding”
Our household also voted Weaver – in our riding – just so everyone knows where we live. 🙂
Best outcome by far:
Libs at 42 or 43 and greens working with them to get significant policy compromises.
Agree Totoro – our household voted for Green Andrew Weaver in our riding 🙂
Leo 2 they just got Saanich and oakbay is not counted yet.
Green may hold the balance of power. Neither may get 44.
Yes. A very badly thought-out system. They should get OB Gordon Head – my riding – so maybe two and 15%.
Unbelievable that the greens could get 15% of the vote and only one seat.
Very dramatic. I hope the Greens get Saanich North – looks possible at this point.
This is too close to call. Could go any direction. Wow
Lot of hate out there for Christy.
Yes, looking like the Libs are taking it, though I’d be happy to see a big shift at some point tonight…
So far she good for the liberals.
Given it’ll be the liberals again, there isn’t any change to housing policy worth talking about.
Looks like we’re on the same page for once totoro. 🙂
Liberals are best for growth and the economy and taxpayers.
I think the Green Party has the best platform of the bunch. I particularly like the ideas of creating a ministry for mental health and addictions and basic income support for youth aged 18 to 24 who are transitioning out of foster care. I also like Andrew Weaver as a leader. He is bright and avoids negative tactics.
The NDP lost me with their renter’s rebate of $400 dollars per rental household per year with no income testing and a yearly 2% absentee owners’ tax to crack down on empty homes. Neither of these policies made any sense to me given the lack of facts backing them and limited benefit for the cost and that makes me worried about the brains behind the platform. I also got tired of Mr. Horgan’s outrage.
Voted orange. We’ll see where it all goes in a couple of hours. I also would be ok with a slowdown in the housing market, $15 minimum wage and some other intelligent programs.
Hawk u shorted nothing.
Oil will get to 85 within 2 years.
How’s that $85 oil doin gwac ? Glad I went short at $52, thanks for the tip. 😉
“Personally I think a minority would be nice for a change.”
That’s what we were hoping for in the last Alberta election never dreaming it would end up the way it did.
Had we had the Rhinos it probably would have been a whole lot different!
Voted for the Liberals today. Here’s hoping that an unholy NDP/Greens coalition doesn’t destroy the economy.
Why didn’t I see the Rhinos on the ballot?
For shame.
A 15 to 10’seat majority is where this will end tonight. Thankfully
Anything but liberals will put a damper on the housing market. Probably a good thing.
Personally I think a minority would be nice for a change.
People refer to many things as investments that are just spending.
“I’m gonna invest in a new camera”
“I’m investing in some kitchen upgrades”
And just because you are investing doesn’t make it a good one. Lots of people investing in TSLA shorts and HCG learned that.
Buying a house to live in is different than buying solely for financial speculation. Important difference imho. Also, buying and selling existing stocks (which most people do) is speculative trading pure and simple (unless you plan to own them forever). As such I don’t understand why people often refer to this as investing.
“SP Global Gold Index fell 50% in a matter of months during the global financial crisis.”
My point was also that this decline is likely less than what someone would have experienced if they left their money in whatever stocks they held at the time. So their relative wealth actually went up.
Damn.
caveat:
“Your post was in answer to totoro. She asked (in reference to hypothetically selling a principal residence) “Where are you going to put this money anyway?’”
totoro’s actual comment:
“Even if prices decline it is likely going to be better to stay put for most with a primary residence. Just like you don’t cash out of stocks if the market drops unless this is part of your life plan because you are downsizing or moving to a lower cost market. Where are you going to put this money anyway? Stocks are pretty high right now and that is a lot to invest at once which increases risk”
The discussion was about a primary residence, yes, but selling stocks was introduced as a corollary argument to support her view on not selling a primary residence if there was a drop in home values. I believe she’s saying that it’s not worthwhile to sell stocks either if there was a drop in their value. Considering that the “where are you going to put this money anyway?” question is sandwiched between comments relating to stocks, I’d assume that the question refers to hypothetically selling all one’s stocks (not a primary residence as you say), or it is poorly written. I didn’t suggest that one sell their primary residence to buy gold stocks but instead that if the stock market depreciated and one sold all their stocks they might temporarily buy gold stocks.
Of course selling your primary residence to buy gold is not a bright idea.
Yes, clearly.
But, yeah, I agree.
Ohh… wait…
Just noticed a lot of houses come up for sale on my PCS today – more than any other single day this year – maybe it just my PCS. Also interesting article in G&M about recency bias:
Real estate or stocks – which will make you richer?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/mortgages-and-rates/renters-make-for-wealthier-investors/article17834799/
“the 20- and 30-somethings of Generation Y are told endlessly by parents, family and friends that extending yourself financially to buy a house is okay because it’s a great investment.
“It’s a cultural thing,” Mr. Spitters said. “People have made money in real estate, and therefore they think their kids will make money in real estate. It’s called recency bias – people look at where they’ve made money recently and think it will continue to be a good investment.”
“… people ignore the true cost of owning a home and thus come away with an overly optimistic view of how much money they’ve made. “
Hawk what I learn is to do the opposite of you. That seems like a very good lucrative plan….
Your post was in answer to totoro. She asked (in reference to hypothetically selling a principal residence) “Where are you going to put this money anyway?’
Your answer was gold. Or gold stocks as you clarified.
SP Global Gold Index fell 50% in a matter of months during the global financial crisis. It also fell over 60% in the 2012-2014 timeframe. It is also lower today then ten years ago.
Holding some gold surrogates in a diversified portfolio is a decent idea IMO. And holding some physical gold along with the guns, ammo and survival rations could pay off.
I’ll put it out there that selling your principal residence and parking the money is gold stocks is not a very smart idea.
AG and gwac, two phone monkeys sitting at the same cubicle trying to drum up non-existent sales.
Guess you bought those stocks when they were over $250 and $100 and now junk at $2. Bummer, some dummies never learn.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3ZatPvKQww
Who to vote for: a bear saviour, a climate scientist or a lawyer? I imagine this riding is well represented here considering some think the world doesn’t exist outside Oak Bay.
I agree with you Dasmo. I guess it depends on the magnitude and duration of the drop. My comments assumed both were significant (example: 2007/08).
Quite the jump out of context there caveat, let’s hope the rest of your reasoning doesn’t follow similarly. 🙂
How Homeownership Became the Engine of American Inequality
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/09/magazine/how-homeownership-became-the-engine-of-american-inequality.html
AG good one
Don’t worry Hawk, I’ll lend you the $200 if you get in trouble 🙂
Hawk good call on CXR and VRX. You start bashing and they start heading up. Amazing…
Well totoro – now you have your answer sell your primary residence and park the money in gold stocks 🙂
If you think gold is also going to go down, why wouldn’t you just cash out?
To difficult to time the market to that degree. I have some ABX in my portfolio. I just leave it there… It is easier to buy when no one is buying and sell when everyone is buying. But trying to time the market beyond that is risky. Wether it’s houses, stocks or gold. I think Hawk can attest to that.
“Safe as houses”
Key word: temporarily. 🙂
Safe as houses.
Here’s one for the bears to laugh at…
2166 Central Ave in South OB. I thought it really an odd strategy when they raised their price from $1,395k to $1,425k recently. Well, I guess it’s not working out for them, because now the price is reduced down to $1,375k. Looks like a nice house though so it’ll probably sell. But, bad strategy. There was another house on Central that sold around $1.7m recently though.
Recently I was at the open house for 2369 Florence St. in North OB. Sold for list price in just a few days at $1.3m. This 1913 house looked in good keep on the outside, with many heritage features and a beautiful large front porch and large deck in back. Step inside however, and right away you are greeted with that ‘old house’ smell so distinctive in many older homes that haven’t undergone major reno’s… Yuck! Also, most of the fixtures and fittings in kitchen/bathrooms was no more than ‘meh’ at best. The upstairs will be an oven in summer as it’s just a converted attic – and no ensuite in master. Stairs creaked to high hell, no sneaking around at night here. The basement was pretty sad but it did have a separate suite w/ full oven (no longer a big deal in OB I guess). But, tiny and probably damp and cold. Wiring looked really scary. I was unimpressed, but someone else shelled out the big bucks.
Afterwards, I took a quick look at 2088 Newton St. Priced just under $1.3m. Personally I would’ve picked this one over Florence. It was more modern and has a 9ft ceiling in the basement! However, it’s not sold yet.
Gold company stocks, not physical gold. No need to bother with that unless you feel the need to display your wealth like caveat emptor. Moving temporarily to gold stocks is standard practice. If you lose less than everyone else at a big drop your relative wealth increases. Not saying it’s the definitive approach but rather merely pointing out a flaw in totoro’s logic.
Anyone else consider the CIBC article (first link) to be very self serving? Everyone knows that CIBC has the most exposure to the real estate mortgage market (second link).
http://www.bnn.ca/home-capital-isn-t-the-canary-in-the-housing-coal-mine-cibc-1.746687
http://www.bnn.ca/cibc-exposure-to-mortgage-market-extraordinarily-high-analysts-warn-1.621015
“(I’m assuming once you hit your mid-70s it becomes tempting, if not almost necessary)”
Ever stepped in a gym lately Mike ? There’s more 70 year olds than ever kicking ass, and probably yours too. 😉
Funny how CIBC is the most vocal screaming there is no canary in the coal mine. This is how Lehman started. Maybe CIBC has the most to lose.
Off-Topic: Election Stock Market
http://www.predictionmarkets.ca/BC17pred.php
Has the 20yr boomer downsize begun?
One has to wonder with StatCan’s latest age pyramid, and skyboxes up 25% past year.
(I’m assuming once you hit your mid-70s it becomes tempting, if not almost necessary)
http://i.imgur.com/TWQuL09.png
Speaking of gold, I have some sovereigns and gold jewellery from an inheritance that I want to get rid of. Any suggestions of the best way/buyer?
But, but ….soooooo shiny!
This is getting worse than I thought but does verify my info from my friends credit counselor buddy. Most people are up to the ass in debt and many are high wage earners too.
Over half of Canadians are $200 or less away from not being able to pay bills
More than half of Canadians are living within $200 per month of not being able to pay all their bills or meet their debt obligations, according to a recent Ipsos survey conducted on behalf of accounting firm MNP.
http://globalnews.ca/news/3434447/over-half-of-canadians-are-200-or-less-away-from-not-being-able-to-pay-bills/
Once the FOMO and spec’ers gets it that the main fuel driving the BC market is gone, the sooner they learn to be patient as the market begins it’s long over due major correction. Can’t be many left in the dummy pool.
Capital Controls Continue To Halt Mainland Chinese Real Estate Buyers
One month isn’t a trend, but three and we’re getting there. According to the latest numbers from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), China’s foreign exchange reserves rose to a 5 month high. New capital controls have effectively shut off the valve for the world’s largest buyers of international property. This trend has had a noticeable impact in markets that have seen a sudden surge of Mainland Chinese buyers.
https://betterdwelling.com/capital-controls-continue-halt-mainland-chinese-real-estate-buyers/#_
April and May historically have shown the lowest Months of Inventory. As the Spring market ends and we head into summer it gets a little easier for buyers as the MOI can double in size by November That should put the breaks on price appreciation which has stayed around $875,000 +/- 3% for houses in the core since January. And that number is comprised of a good sized data pool of over 650 house sales in the core.
All eyes on therefore on May. Will the real estate market pull a rabbit out of its hat this month with a surge in prices or will we see more of the same with stable prices and increasing inventory?
FINALLY WE ARE GETTING SOMEWHERE WITH INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS/FLIPPERS
“The law is clear that buyers are required to be diligent and make reasonable inquiries to ascertain the tax residency status of sellers. If the buyer fails to make reasonable inquiries, the buyer and his or her agent can be assessed for the entirety of the capital gains tax.”
“The facts underlying the Mao v. Liu action were relatively straightforward.
Upon closing, with no clearance certificate and no holdback in the Agreement of Purchase and Sale, the Canadian Revenue Agency required that the buyer pay the capital gains tax owing in the amount of $695,000. The buyer then sued the notary public seeking damages associated with this payment.”
Regrettably the onus is put on the buyer but this will certainly bring caution to international speculators in Canadian RE.
Obviously the more data for the month of May that you have the better the forecast. One week out of the month is not conclusive but as the month progresses the more reliable the outcome becomes until you have all of the data by the end of the month and it no longer is a forecast for May.
The real estate board also provides a Market Watch showing New Listings, Sales, etc. from 24 hours to 7 days. Looking at a week’s worth of data is timely and not unusual.
For the more visual members on the blog this is similar to observing how many for sale signs are in your neighborhood that have or have not sold stickers on them. If there are a lot more for sale than sold signs it signifies the market is favoring buyers with greater selection.
Thanks, JDollar.
IMO those numbers show that the past few months have been notably more active than average, but not up to last year’s torrid pace. Makes sense.
Back in 2007 gold was a popular topic on the victoriastruth blog to the point where it was added to the sites tag line. Haven’t heard much about it lately.
Ever try to sell physical gold? You will always get half of what you paid for it…. If you are lucky.
Excellent idea. A nice paid off house in Fairfield or South Oak Bay could be converted into 25 kilograms of shiny metal or a cube 11 cm on a side. Sure you could just buy shares of GLD but it would be much cooler to have the shiny metal cube as a centerpiece of your new rental home.
“Where are you going to put this money anyway?”
Gold. If you think it’s going to drop further it’s better to cash out and buy back in at the low. Just like real estate, people who move early do well.
“Stocks are pretty high right now and that is a lot to invest at once which increases risk.”
Same applies to real estate.
The TC article on the garden suites is kind of bizarre.
“No negative feedback”. Is the bar so low that a lack of outrage makes something a success?
http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/no-negative-feedback-after-victoria-relaxes-rules-on-garden-suites-1.18657085
I thought January rose 14ok over December in Victoria? From Leo’s post:
Wasn’t January three-four months ago?
And from the same post:
Given that the vast majority of Victorians only own the home that they live in and rental vacancy rates are .5%, and the rate of secondary home ownership is .5% as well, what would they be cashing out to live in? Who is the intended recipient of this advice?
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/is-it-time-to-sell-your-rental-property-or-time-to-buy-another
Even if prices decline it is likely going to be better to stay put for most with a primary residence. Just like you don’t cash out of stocks if the market drops unless this is part of your life plan because you are downsizing or moving to a lower cost market. Where are you going to put this money anyway? Stocks are pretty high right now and that is a lot to invest at once which increases risk.
The market has only been flat for 5 or 6 months. If the speculators bought before September last year they should have made a profit.
But it does seem like all the easy money to be made has been made. Give it a month or two more and if prices stay flat time its time to cash in and buy into something other than real estate.
Wonder if some of the short term speculators are starting to consider dumping back on the market.
Better to AirBnB your garden shed with a hose and an extension cord running to it than to build a garden suite.
“Trendy microhome with eco-friendly composting toilet: $50/night”
still need a new water meter and very likely new hookups (that’s 20+K right there).
The fixed costs are going to be huge. Probably half the cost will be permits/design/services/owner-builder exam/etc. and the other half will be the actual construction of the dwelling.
Unless you already have a 1” line to the home (majority of homes don’t) the new plumbing load fixture with the garden suite assuming you do in-unit laundry will force a 1” line upgrade ($$). Amongst many other things.
A plain old single-family passive house. No suite.
The analysis for January to April, 2017.
Saanich East 1.46:1
Victoria 1.46:1
Oak Bay 1.54:1
Not a glaring big difference, just a little less than the first week in May 2017.
And in anticipation of the obvious this is what the month of May in 2016 ended as. Obviously this market is not the same as last years as 2016 was an anomaly and won’t be repeated this year.
Saanich East 1:1
Victoria 1.16:1
Oak Bay 0.69:1
So are we moving towards a better balance between buyer and seller? If this first week of May is any indicator, and it is, then it seems that we are returning to historic norms shown in the ten year averages.
This really shouldn’t be startling news to anyone.
Bman – thanks.
John D – I’m not sure what the argument is. I think everyone agrees your analysis has potential. It’s just that defining ‘the present’ as 7 days is too small a dataset to avoid noise, particularly when there is a recognized problem with the first few days of the month.
By definition all retrospective analyses define the past, not the future, so don’t worry about that part of it.
Care to redo the analysis of new listings/sales for Jan-April of this year?
Weekly sales/new list data can only be compared to other weekly data. So you can compare last week to the first week of May 2016 and that would be valid. Comparing it to the complete month of May is not valid because we know that a large chunk of the new listings come in the first week. So it’s always going to be lower than for the complete month.
Sales/list is 53% last week
Approx same week 2016 was 82%.
Approx same week 2015 was 52%.
So are we back to “normal”? Perhaps but I only have 2.5 years of weekly data and of course the dates are always a bit different. Also this time 2015 we had 4000 properties on the market so a 52% sales/list now indicates something quite different than a 52% sales/list back then when there were no inventory constraints.
Spliff – what are you building?
Prefab is traditionally not cheaper. It should be but I don’t think anyone local is operating at scale. I would think a garden suite is still marginal from a $ perspective – you still need stamped plans, draftsman…still need a new water meter and very likely new hookups (that’s 20+K right there).
I’m doing pre-fab and on the notes from the city I have a NB from the head building inspector (which I haven’t seen yet). Not sure what restrictions they’ll add, but so far they’ve been accommodating.
Can these garden suites be fabricated off site and be CSA approved at the place of manufacture? Then moved onto a foundation that is roughed in for electrical and plumbing. In that way you would just need a city inspection of the foundation and pay for a hook up.
That will cut down costs and time.
Take a look at what Moduline manufactures. Delivered to your home. As in all companies they seem to be secretive in their cost so I don’t know how much of a saving it would be to have one built and delivered to your door. I suspect it will be a lot cheaper.
http://victoria.citified.ca/news/victorias-fast-tracked-garden-suite-program-uprooted-by-new-owner-builder-exam-bc-housing-authorization/
Marko agree 100%.
I guess you are still making friends at BC housing….:) How is the original complaint?
How about 965 Whispedwind Pl? What did it sell for?
@infrequentposter
$620,000
Yes Barrister, the most accurate predictions are those made of the past.
Totoro, I’m making an observation not a prediction. A prediction would require more data. But that doesn’t mean I can’t make an observation of what I’m seeing in the market this month. After all this is what most posters are doing on this blog. Expressing what they are observing and are not making predictions.
So why do you feel the following statement that I made was a prediction?
John:
If you just wait for a couple of years you will have much better data as to what is happening now. Much more statistically accurate. of coarse, if we strike a committee we would still not reach any conclusion.
Can anyone let me know what 1779 Falcon Heights sold for please?
There are few things in the world that are definite. But I’m not trying to be definite. The words may, might are there for a reason.
I have never heard of something being artificially low. It is either low or it isn’t.
Showing that we are at a higher new listing to sales ratio this month is important. Using weekly data is done in other countries such as Australia. It’s important because May is an important month for the real estate market as we are nearing the end of the spring market.
Now, you have the same access as I do. If you want to show data that shows a different conclusion using your method. I would love to see it.
JD, it has been a long time since I took stats but seven days in May is too small of a data set and comparing it to three months of data from a different period means you also have a control group issue, both of which mean you have a reliability issue.
I would not be making predictions or extrapolating from this type of information because it is not reliable. You can say this is where May is at right now though. You could also compare it to the first seven days of May in past years, although you’d still have the sample size issue.
No, it will definitely change. There’s always a flood of new listings/relistings at the start of the month so sales/list is artificially low, then recovers are the month progresses. If you take partial month data, then it can only be compared to partial month data in the same period 1 year ago. Comparing to the full month is not useful.
My guess is that the sale of houses in South Victoria has really slowed down. Not much seems to be moving in James Bay or the Uplands. Inventory and pricing may or may not be part of the problem. Of the four SFH in Rockland two are totally priced completely unrealistically.