How to mislead with charts

What would you conclude if I showed you this chart?

With 4 months of declining medians it seems like prices are declining in the core, right?   Are people maxed out on price?   Are the Vancouver buyers not coming?  Are people scared of the green party winning a landslide?   Is it those Chinese capital controls beginning to bite?

Let’s zoom out a bit.

Hmm..  Looks a bit different but perhaps a market top?    Doesn’t this stupid website say the market is “ludicrously hot” on the right side??   Hardly seems like strong appreciation in the last year with prices in April 2017 and May 2016 close to $800,000.

Let’s zoom out a bit more.

Now the graph gives a totally different impression.  The big decline from the first graph is lost in the noise and the actual trend of about +$100,000/year reveals itself.  Monthly medians are notoriously variable.   Sometimes that variability manifests itself in large changes (like the increase of $140,000 from December to January) and sometimes it results in a stretch of steadily declining prices.

Could it be some sort of top?  Sure.  If we get another 4 months of price declines then there is something going on, but so far it’s just that much noise.  It’s human nature to spot patterns in noise, and so we glom onto these things when we see them.   This is why I think that while data is interesting, it doesn’t really help people form an accurate opinion of the market without interpretation.   For example Zolo has a great page of stats for Vancouver but what they are actually highlighting in many cases is the noise, and in other cases they have the signal but it’s not obvious to someone not familiar with the details of real estate markets.

Regarding our market, I still believe that before we see prices slow down we would need to see a matching pullback in market conditions.  This would be something to watch out for and I’ll look into what a market top actually has looked like in Victoria in the past.   When the current runup is over, will we get any warning, and if so, what should we be looking for as an early warning of the market rolling over?

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357 thoughts on “How to mislead with charts

  1. Does anyone know what 528 St. Charles, in Rockland, sold for? It has been on the market for months now.

    $1.6m

  2. Does anyone know what 528 St. Charles, in Rockland, sold for? It has been on the market for months now.

  3. Leo:

    In your VV post you used a picture of Black and White as the background of your no. of condos to purchase a SFH graph. I know it’s a minor detail, but you could buy a SFH in a core-ish area with what a Black and White condo costs.

    Just saying…

  4. 10 years of damage could be done in one or two as the US found out the hard way. Can’t happen to us cause we’re…..we’re…. conservative ! Yeah….conservative ! 😉

  5. The size of the discount is what would be interesting to know. It would indicate how far the Big 5 think RE might fall.

    totally

  6. @LF

    “I would presume that any or all of the “Big 5” buying HCG loans would be a contradiction in terms, would it not? The reason HCG said yes to the borrower in the first place, is because the former said no.”

    They will buy at a discount that reflects the risk involved. The loans are backed by collateral, i.e., real estate, so at a 50% discount the loans are probably a good investment. Or at least so we can infer if the Big 5 buy them.

    The size of the discount is what would be interesting to know. It would indicate how far the Big 5 think RE might fall.

  7. Hawk enjoy your imaginary Victoria market crash for the 100th time in the past 10 years. Maybe an imaginary house will go down 50% and you can buy it. Than you can imagine you moved into it. Than
    you can imagine the market goes up 100% and than you can imagine to sell it. Its a wonderful life of fantasies and adventures. Who cares about reality in Hawk`s fantasy world.
    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

  8. Wolf, Funny how gwac never said that back in the 1990’s. Now it’s not allowed to happen. Nothing worse than an angry homeowner watching the bubble pop. 😉

  9. “It is in no ones interest to see this continue to unravel further.”

    I don’t mind. Hardworking young people on the sidelines may not mind either. While it may get unpleasant for some, the impact on irresponsible ‘investors’ and over-extenders will be much greater. Many others have less to lose. Like I said before, looking forward to enjoying some of the wealth that you give back. Pass the popcorn and start the show.

  10. A chimp would be better at predicting the market than you.

    I would agree with you, because a chimp would be better at predicting the market than anyone.

    A chimp would make a random guess. A human would also make a random guess, except they’d be convinced that they know what they’re talking about.

    Mind you with that ignorance recognized, I do happen to think there’s something to what your learned friend is arguing.

    And Hawk, regarding Gwac’s OCD – it’s “CDO”. That way, the letters are arranged precisely and in alphabetical order…as they should be.

  11. Hawk if zerohedge said they were junk than they must be junk. 🙂

    “Only a blind(and ignorant) person could not see this coming, just look at every god damn chart”

    Market advice coming from you. A chimp would be better at predicting the market than you.

    Another pretty graph from Hawk. Lucky us. Hopefully he posts it daily.

  12. Local, this how bubbles pop. Shit credit pumped into the system for years and years finally comes home to roost. Credit squeezes for lenders to pull back lending and tighten like a vice.

    Only a blind(and ignorant) person could not see this coming, just look at every god damn chart.

  13. “Do not be surprised if a consortium of the banks puts something together to buy the loans.”

    Zerohedge just said no one wants them. They’re junk. Just like Mike’s charts from the flatheads society.

    “As we reported over the weekend, while Home Capital hired investment bankers for a possible sale, there is little to no interest in the loan book as the company itself.”

  14. If this was the loan side, I would be heading into my bunker.

    What I wonder is if the two sectors of the company are related, despite what some may claim. I would think they would be.

    People may keep paying their mortgages, but I don’t know if that’s the issue. It’s the people that want a new mortgage – if everyone on the savings/investment side is drawing out their capital, how is HCG going to fund new mortgage loans?

  15. “When people have to find alternate financing we might start discovering exactly what percentage of their mortgages are actually junk.”

    Agree Barrister – we still don’t know what % are bad mortgages. The OSC said on April 19 that Home Capital had been “misleading …”

    http://www.osc.gov.on.ca/documents/en/Proceedings-SOA/soa_20170419_home-capital.pdf
    “HCG’s residential mortgage business consists predominantly of two portfolios: (1) the Accelerator mortgages, which are mostly insured by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation; and (2) the Classic mortgages, which are not insured.”

    Also news today UBS had to pay $500M settlement for selling toxic mortgage securities in 2007
    https://www.thestreet.com/story/14112398/1/ubs-pays-445-million-to-settle-toxic-mortgage-sales-claims.html

  16. I wasn’t trying to be sarcastic. If you don’t believe the earth is flat you’ve swallowed the kool aid.

  17. Local

    There is no positive spin to this. Bay street needs to put on their big boy pants and deal with this before it gets larger. If this was the loan side, I would be heading into my bunker.

  18. Local the banks helped out equitable this morning. How it is put together I have no idea but I am would not be surprised to see them be part of this.

    Me neither, but it will be very interesting to watch this unfold both specifically, and any effects it has on the wider market. I don’t think it’s broadly a good sign in any case, though.

  19. Michael,

    I always suspected that Lenovo monitors were junk, but this is just ridiculous. My apologies, I’m trying to find the image re-calibrate setting, because my made-in-Ganzhou screen makes it look like you just made a bearish statement.

    BTW, I wouldn’t call post 01 + a few years a “rough patch”. That’s showing strong, but unbubbly gains.

  20. I would presume that any or all of the “Big 5” buying HCG loans would be a contradiction in terms, would it not? The reason HCG said yes to the borrower in the first place, is because the former said no.

    I’m assuming that the big banks would buy the loan portfolio at a discount. That would make them more attractive.

    And can’t they also buy insurance on the portfolio from CMHC?

  21. Local the banks helped out equitable this morning. How it is put together I have no idea but I am would not be surprised to see them be part of this. Anyways something has to happen quickly before the GIC come due. It is in no ones interest to see this continue to unravel further.

  22. could you please explain how you think Victoria will experience price inflation, from its current price point

    I don’t. If you had looked at my ‘We are here?’ guesstimate below (made a couple months ago), you’d clearly see that I think Vic/Van are about to hit an extended rough patch 🙂

  23. Do not be surprised if a consortium of the banks puts something together to buy the loans.

    I would presume that any or all of the “Big 5” buying HCG loans would be a contradiction in terms, would it not? The reason HCG said yes to the borrower in the first place, is because the former said no.

  24. Hawk

    The company is done and will be sold in a fire sale. Already explained over and over that the issues is the deposits and not loans. You can twist this but by the end of next week the company will have different owners or the assets sold. A regulated financial company is as good as its reputation. Their reputation has issues.
    The GIC issue only gives them a small runway to sale.

    Do not be surprised if a consortium of the banks puts something together to buy the loans.

  25. Contagion across the nation ? Latest on Home Capital looks ugggggly ! Another $12 billion ? Say goodnight Irene…. I mean gwac.

    Confidence in the lending markets will spread like wildfire. No one wants to touch any of that junk.

    This Is What A Bank Run Looks Like: Home Capital Loses 70% Of Deposits In One Week

    “However, there is another problem: the company has another C$12.8 billion in Guaranteed Investment Certificate deposits, or GICS. As these 30- and 60-day deposits come due in the coming weeks, depleting HCG’s already tapped out liquidity, and forcing even more emergency loans. Without a deposit base, Home Capital can’t fund new mortgages.

    As we reported over the weekend, while Home Capital hired investment bankers for a possible sale, there is little to no interest in the loan book as the company itself.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-01/what-bank-run-looks-home-capital-loses-70-deposits-one-week

  26. Maybe. How do you know her?

    She was posting on here somewhat regularly a little while ago. Prices will continue to double and double ad infinitum, despite wages or inflation. IE, extrapolation. Canadians are getting very good at doing it, so she’s in plenty of company.

    It was rather interesting. It was a similar “the sky’s the limit” argument that you make, but you attach charts and aren’t quite as excitable.

    She ran away screaming. 🙁

    I am curious, Michael. I’m not trying to troll you here – could you please explain how you think Victoria will experience price inflation, from its current price point, to the same or similar degree to that experienced by Vancouver from 2001- 2017? If you don’t mind, dumb it down so that I may understand. Because…I don’t at all.

  27. I see 1580 Despard, in Rockland, dropped its price by 145k; now they only have to drop it another 450k and maybe it might sell.

    Not Santa, the guy in the “Red” hat Joseph Stalin.

  28. The market is hot.

    Agents that list their properties under market value by a hundred or two hundred grand are getting those properties sold in less than a week with no subject clauses or building inspections with multiple offers over asking price.

  29. Michael,

    One of us is absolutely off our rocker. I guess it’s me. I was never an economist, so I can’t really argue. But lets just say:

    Between then and now, Vancouver SFH’s had an increase of ~ 466%. So let’s extrapolate – if Victoria is around $850,000 for a SFH – in about 15 years, we should be looking at SFH’s just under 4 million dollars each.

    In that case, my decision not to buy today is among the worst financial decision of my life. And yet, my MO is unchanged. I ain’t buyin’. Sigh…I don’t call me Local Fool for nothing, you know. 😀

    Hey do you know db by any chance?

  30. @ Barrister

    “Do you really think Warren Buffet is about to resurrect our market?”

    Nah. I meant the guy in the red hat.

  31. @Local Fool
    We’re likely around 01/02 on your chart.

    Here’s the ‘road map’ I posted a while back. You can see we’re a couple years in to our ~7 year up-cycle (the yellow dashed-line), or near the ‘first sell off’ stage.

  32. gwac: “I don’t get married to any topic. Except Hawk”

    Hawk: “Now you’re creeping me out with this OCD thing.”

    You guys should start your own Comedy Central show 🙂

  33. Need to fine tune my market summary page. Market still ludicrously hot, but also slowing down.

  34. Just because I know how to post images now. I believe this has been posted before, but it’s a gooder.

    Here is a series of predictions put forth by David Lereah just prior to, and during, the US housing market bust.

    “David Lereah was the NAR’s spokesman on economic forecasts, interest rates, home sales, mortgage rates, as well as other policy issues and trends affecting the United States real estate industry. Lereah was also the Chief Economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association during the 1990s and has testified before Congress on economic and real estate matters.”

    “Lereah has been criticized for encouraging the rise of the United States housing bubble. According to a HousingPanic blog post quoted by the Chicago Tribune, “In October 2005 Lereah was busy calling the bubble believers ‘Chicken Littles.’ Many of the predictions espoused by the ‘Chicken Littles’ are fast becoming closer to reality. … David Lereah has lost credibility because of his irresponsible cheerleading.”

  35. Hawk I know you do not like facts but here are the facts. Fraud is not what is causing this.

    http://www.bnn.ca/amber-kanwar-home-capital-but-where-is-the-fraud-1.737658

    Hawk the only thing sad is you on here posting daily crap because you stupidly sold your house and lost 100`s of thousands of dollars. You some how think your posts are going to sink the market. Seems the opposite happens.

    I feel for all those on here who cannot afford to buy or cannot find something. You on the other hand are just a fool who speculated on your house.

  36. Does anyone know if the two renovated houses that were for sale on Dallas Road (down by the breakwater) …did they sell? (They were asking around $2million each I believe, which seemed way too high.)
    The for sale signs are not out in front anymore. Seems odd not to put a “Sold” sign on them if they actually sold. Perhaps they are switching agents? Any thoughts?

  37. “Sales down 31% from last year”

    Median down, sales down, and it’s raining out. Looks like another sad day for gwac.

  38. “Just need a buyer for Home Capital to move on from this.”

    Wishful thinking, down another 10% this morning. There is no moving on, this fraud will be busted wide open.

    Cohodes gets fed info from those who quit from shame or got quietly let go. The fuse is lit.

    “Cohodes remains convinced there is more to come. “Numerous shoes are yet to and will drop,” said Cohodes in an email to BNN, “and people will be outraged.”​

  39. If you really want to have your mind blown re:science research things like this:

  40. Have we had an unusually high number of listings taken off the market this month?

  41. April:
    885 sales
    1270 new listings
    1690 Active listings

    Sales down 31% from last year
    Inventory down 35%

  42. @ Barrister:

    If there is a slowdown we should see it by the middle of the summer

    “By middle of the summer”?

    LOL

    We’ve already seen it: no one but RE junkies at the open houses and four months of declining median price.

    Surely only our Savior could resurrect this market.

  43. Equitable will be able to cherry pick a good portion of the mortgages as they come up for renewal so why bother to buy the bad with the good. The banks dont want to touch any of these mortgages so who is out there that would want to buy these loans. it would take months to try to figure out which loans where fraudulent if it can really be done at all in a meaningful manner.

  44. Rates will be going up for those who cannot get traditional mortgages.

    So far the default rate is normal for their mortgages.

    The company or portfolio hopefully will be sold this week. Home capital will bleed cash with their borrowing arrangement.

  45. On Home Capital, has anyone figured out how much in the way of mortgages comes due over the next few months compared to GIC’s due?One assumes that they will not be renewing mortgages for the next while in order to redeem the GIC’s but how big a hole are they looking at?

    When people have to find alternate financing we might start discovering exactly what percentage of their mortgages are actually junk.

  46. We should have a new month of stats to pick apart soon. Went to a few open houses in Oak Bay this weekend. Did not see hardly any people. I know that my mind should have adjusted but somewhere deep in my brain I am really wondering if these small and often not well maintained houses are really worth over a million dollars. That is an enormous amount of money for your average middle class family.

    There seems to be a lot of houses priced over 1.5 million that seem to have been on the market for months with no takers. If there is a slowdown we should see it by the middle of the summer after the hopes of selling in the spring market start to evaporate.

  47. If there has been mortgage fraud (which it seems all too obvious) I sure hope Canada sets an example and gets some serious convictions with considerable jail time.

  48. Cahodes…and others… are also shorting Equitable Group, who also had a bad week last week. Problem, in my opinion, is contagion…international/large investors sell first then ask questions later…where does this lead in 2-6 months? The big Canadian Banks will likely be ok but they were sold off late last week and I’m watching to see if that will continue next week…I think it might. Not sure how deep the problem is, but where there is smoke there is likely fire….and there is a lot of smoke with hcg at this time.

  49. Cohodes remains convinced there is more to come.

    Has he said if there are other companies he is shorting?

  50. “Cohodes remains convinced there is more to come…

    I think Hawk has some real big cahodes.

  51. “I don’t get married to any topic.

    Except Hawk”

    Now you’re creeping me out with this OCD thing. You need to take up a new hobby like crocheting or something more relaxing. Good thing we have tight security here.

    Funny how you want to sweep Home Captial under the rug like it’s no big deal. It reeks to high heaven of major fraud that will be the first major catalyst to pop this bloated pig.

    “Cohodes remains convinced there is more to come. “Numerous shoes are yet to and will drop,” said Cohodes in an email to BNN, “and people will be outraged.”​

  52. For Q1 2017:
    Victoria and South Island: 76.49%
    North Island: 2.24%
    Lower mainland: 10.06%
    Other BC: 2.3%
    AB: 2.42%
    ON/QC: 2.12%
    Other Provinces: 1.14%
    USA: 2.36%
    Asia: 0.55%
    Other countries: 0.3%

    Pie chart, please.

  53. Yes there’s always a certain degree of error but unfortunately politicians exaggerate that when it’s a benefit to them (ie., money from the oil industry) instead of benefit to the Earth’s ecosystem (which would actually stimulate the economy, but they take the easy money route instead)

    So there’s no proof that 99% of social scientists agreed that RE is a safe bet, and yet you’re asking for 100% certainty with climate science, so you’re holding the climate scientists to a standard that you’re not holding yourself to.

    Even if the “whole planet seemingly believed” – that is not science.

    Yes science is different than engineering but I work with scientists and we know what “peer review” means in terms of certainty in physics & biology. Math is also a tool used across all disciplines.

    But the laws of physics are not the same as “laws” of economics – without the laws of physics, we wouldn’t have buildings, bridges, Internet, etc. The “laws” of economics are more pliable.

    I also work with grad students and know the pressures they’re under, and I’ve also seen the effects of climate change first-hand – it affects real people, plants, animals today.

    Interesting article: “Neoclassical economics is inconsistent with the laws of thermodynamics.”
    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/does-economics-violate-th/

  54. The whole planet seemingly believed that about RE in the mid-2000s, most of whom didn’t know anything about RE beyond what they heard in the media. The same thing happens today with climate science. The vast majority believe it but most don’t know anything about it beyond what they read in the newspaper. As an engineer I’m guessing you likely deal with a certain degree of certainty in your work (i.e. design specifications, etc.). Science is different from engineering in that a topic/design cannot be conclusively proven (science is not exact); the conclusion instead has a certain degree of error. I’m not trying to convey that humans aren’t affecting the Earth system but instead that it’s not as black and white as some people make it out to be.

  55. Climate science science and economics do actually have some similarities. They both attempt to make predictions about complex systems with massive numbers of inputs and variables. And they are both very bad at making those predictions.

  56. Wolf could you point me to the study that shows that 99% of social scientists agreed with peer-reviewed studies that said that about RE being a safe bet, and what the bet was.

    Local Fool I’m waiting for a CS arm wrestle at the next meet up. ☺

  57. Vicbot, the mathematics behind real estate IS science. The same mathematics and statistics are employed across fields. You could further debate that it’s a social science. As for the fact that 99% of scientists agree, well that’s obvious. Many young researchers self-select themselves out of the field leaving a one-sided view behind; I noticed this regularly while I was completing my advanced degrees. Would you dedicate your career to disproving a notion or would you move on to something more constructive?

    #2 example for incorrect mass consensus will be the decline in Canadian housing in the coming years.

  58. CS and Vicbot:

    Why don’t you two just agree that 9/11 was caused by humans. Bad humans. Lots of people died. Most perpetrators weren’t caught. The middle east is messy.

    There 😀

    Hawk, that Mr. Housing Bubble picture was hilarious. I laughed out loud. My g/f went to see what I was laughing at, and said it was “lame” and I was “even more lame to find it funny”. But it totally was, that’s what she doesn’t understand…

  59. @ Vicbot

    CS, your quote doesn’t prove that it was an inside job

    Did I say it did. No I did not. But the quote provides one of many reasons for doubting the US Government’s conspiracy theory about 9/11.

    Here are some more reasons:

    9/11 Commission co-chair Lee Hamilton said “I don’t believe for a minute we got everything right”

    The 9/11 Commission chair said the Commission was “set up to fail”

    The Commission’s co-chairs said that the CIA (and likely the White House) “obstructed our investigation”

    9/11 Commissioner Bob Kerrey said that “There are ample reasons to suspect that there may be some alternative to what we outlined in our version . . . We didn’t have access . . . .”

    9/11 Commissioner Timothy Roemer said “We were extremely frustrated with the false statements we were getting”

    9/11 Commissioner Max Cleland resigned from the Commission, stating: “It is a national scandal”; “This investigation is now compromised”; and “One of these days we will have to get the full story because the 9-11 issue is so important to America. But this White House wants to cover it up”. When asked in 2009 if he thought there should be another 9/11 commission, Cleland responded: “There should be about fifteen 9/11 commissions”

    The Senior Counsel to the 9/11 Commission (John Farmer) – who led the 9/11 staff’s inquiry – said “At some level of the government, at some point in time…there was an agreement not to tell the truth about what happened“. He also said “I was shocked at how different the truth was from the way it was described …. The tapes told a radically different story from what had been told to us and the public for two years…. This is not spin. This is not true.”

    Source

    Not that I expect any of that to convince you, which I suppose is a good thing. If people don’t believe that governments tell the truth, then civil war is likely to ensue. You, Vicbot, are clearly a good citizen and believe everything the government says. Good for you.

  60. Sorry Leo.

    Can you tell I lost interest quickly. 🙂

    I don’t get married to any topic. 🙂

    Except Hawk

  61. CS, your quote doesn’t prove that it was an inside job – your quote was related to the CIA’s cover-up of torture – that’s an entirely different matter than what you’re arguing about 9/11.

    von Neumann was talking about global warming:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann#Weather_systems_and_global_warming
    “Von Neumann’s team performed the world’s first numerical weather forecasts on the ENIAC computer; von Neumann published the paper Numerical Integration of the Barotropic Vorticity Equation in 1950.[154] Von Neumann’s interest in weather systems and meteorological prediction led him to propose manipulating the environment by spreading colorants on the polar ice caps to enhance absorption of solar radiation (by reducing the albedo).[155][156] thereby inducing global warming.”

  62. @Vicbot

    CS, von Neumann was one of the first people to write about human induced global warming.

    Von Neumann wasn’t writing about global warming. He was writing about planet-forming technology, in particular how to counteract a new ice age.

    As for Able Danger, what’s that?

    Here’s what Thomas Keane, Chair of the 9/11 Commission, said (among other things)

    As a legal matter, it is not up to us to examine the C.I.A.’s failure to disclose the existence of these tapes. That is for others. What we do know is that government officials decided not to inform a lawfully constituted body, created by Congress and the president, to investigate one the greatest tragedies to confront this country. We call that obstruction.

    There is much more to confirm that the 9/11 Commission’s Report does not tell the real story of 9/11, but it has, obviously, no relevance here except to refute your mis-characterization of me as a conspiracy theorist. It was the US Government that insisted on the existence of a conspiracy, i.e., a conspiracy by others than the US Government itself.

  63. Ya Hawk I think even you know that average and median is garbage in a small market like the core to determine market conditions over a few months. Not enough sales. It’s 2017 and you are still in an apartment because you speculated on your house.
    Too funny.

  64. CS, von Neumann was one of the first people to write about human induced global warming. From his 1955 article: “matter spread on an icy surface, or in the atmosphere above one, could inhibit the reflection-radiation process, melt the ice, and change the local climate”

    For 9/11:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_11_attacks_advance-knowledge_conspiracy_theories
    The Chair & Vice Chair of 9/11 “issued a statement in which they stated the Commission had been aware of the Able Danger program, and requested and obtained information about it from the Department of Defense (DoD), but none of the information provided had indicated the program had identified Atta or other 9/11 hijackers.”

    ie., they (US gov’t) investigated the theory and found it to be false.

  65. House price surge ? Median in core is down $70K last 3 months. You’re a 2017 loser. Look out below.

  66. @Vicbot:

    CS, Scott Adams is known for his Puff Pieces on climate change that are easily debunked.

    If you won’t accept Scott Adams’s perfectly cogent argument that rubbishes your claim, how about John von Neumann:

    With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk.” Meaning, that you can find a function that fits any data series, e.g., past climatic data or whatever, but that doesn’t mean that you have a predictive model.

    As for

    How appropriate that conspiracy theorists – who think 9/11 was an inside job

    You reveal your ignorance. The official 9/11 story is a conspiracy theory unsupported either by a forensic investigation or a judicial inquiry. Moreover, not only the Chair, and Vice-Chair, but also the legal adviser of the 9/11 Commission stated subsequent to the publication of their report that the report did not provide a true account of what happened on 9/11.

    So, no, I am absolutely not a conspiracy theorist. And if you reject the US government’s unverified conspiracy theory, what remains other than an inside job?

  67. Mtb hawk that is not on the road. It is on mountains thus mountain biking. Omg get some help. These house price surges are sending you over the edge.

    Everyday hawk is another day to reflect on how much you lost by selling your house. Really sad.

    Starting to think a gonfund me account is necessary for you.

  68. “Home Capital assets will be sold as I tried to explain over and over to your simple mind. This is not a loan issue but a confidence issue about management so money is being pulled out that support the loans.”

    That’s funny, that’s what they said about Lehman Bros and Bear Sterns. Then they got exposed for what they were, one massive ponzi scheme like the Canadian housing market is.

  69. Gwac inhaled too many exhaust pipes on his bike ride. Daily price slashes in all areas including Golden Head where the foreigners have stopped buying still can’t get through his CO gassed noggin the party is over and only the few drunks remain. Sad.

  70. Wolf, RE isn’t science. It was a question about scientific consensus 🙂

    AG, people often confuse media consensus with scientific consensus. If it’s pumped 99% of the time by the media, they think that 99% of scientists agree. It’s not necessarily true.

    There was never a ” 98%/99% consensus” on eggs, cholesterol, butter, high fat diets – it depends on exactly what action/result you’re referring to. Certain aspects of those factors may have had 50/60/70% consensus (eg., vegan diets by Dr Dean Ornish are still recommended to help people recover from heart attacks or deal with pacemakers – one friend who had to get a pacemaker at 60 went from carnivore to vegan based on doctors’ advice)

  71. Also – eggs, cholesterol, butter, high fat diets. For 30 years the scientific consensus was that they are bad for you. The latest research says pretty much the opposite.

  72. I’m just playing devils advocate here but I simply cannot resist:

    An example “where 98% of the thousands of scientific experts on the subject have for decades been finding one result (made up of multiple results pointing to the same conclusion) based on theory and observation, and it turned out to be completely wrong”

    Yes, that the real estate market in the U.S. was a certain safe bet in the mid-2000s. Everyone (almost everyone) was wrong and it crashed in 2007/2008.

  73. Michael, yes I see your point on the C$. But I didn’t agree with your chart 🙂

    “I have more science credentials than most of the IPCC.”

    What are those credentials?

  74. I guess the hysteria hasn’t fully subsided 🙂
    Take a few deep breaths Vicbot, I have more science credentials than most of the IPCC.

    And when you say…

    He constantly posts nonsense graphs about data that has no correlation

    …does it mean you no longer agree with what you said yesterday:

    Michael, I see your point on the C$.

  75. How appropriate that conspiracy theorists – who think 9/11 was an inside job – are now arguing against climate scientists. I shouldn’t bother with this but it’s sad …

    The truth is too complicated so it gets crowded out – congratulations! Lazy brainfarts prevail. Yes the Great Barrier Reef is dying because of climate change – we’re losing ocean life & food sources, but who gives a shit because my house just went up 50% in 2 years. I’ll eat plastic! (yes I saw the reef in the 80s & now – it’s a disaster)

    “Even IPCC ‘scientists’, or should I say bureaucrats …”
    Michael is now saying scientists aren’t scientists. How ironic. He constantly posts nonsense graphs about data that has no correlation – and people call him on it repeatedly. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.

    “The diverge right away, but there’s a clear divergence in 2025.”
    You originally tried to say that worst-case C02 should have resulted in worst-case temperatures immediately – not true. We’re not at 2025 or 2035 yet.

    CS, Scott Adams is known for his Puff Pieces on climate change that are easily debunked. He spends too much time getting brainwashed by “alternative facts”

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2017/3/9/1641941/-A-detailed-reply-to-Scott-Adams-on-climate-science
    “In a recent blog posting, cartoonist Scott Adams (drawer of “Dilbert”) took climate scientists to task for his own failure to understand how climate science (and as it turns out, science in general) works.

    Actually, I quite sympathize with Scott. He clearly spends a lot of time reading “fake news” on climate skeptic websites, and that takes so much of his time that reading real science just gets crowded out.”

    “For a scientist it is generally clear which arguments are valid, but it is indeed a real problem that to the public even the most utter nonsense may look “disturbingly credible”. ”

    http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2016/12/scott-adams-puff-piece-on-disputing.html
    Scott says: “In my experience, and based on my training, it is normal and routine for the “majority of experts” to be completely wrong about important stuff.”

    Response: “Can you list three examples? … That is, where 98% of the thousands of scientific experts on the subject have for decades been finding one result (made up of multiple results pointing to the same conclusion) based on theory and observation, and it turned out to be completely wrong …
    If as you say this is “normal and routine”, just three examples that are comparable to showing 200 years of an entire large scientific field are completely off track, should be a breeze for you. “

  76. Personally I believe the climate debate is moot and has historically been a waste of time.

    …and some money. Many trillions so far. At least the hysteria has started to subside. Even IPCC ‘scientists’, or should I say bureaucrats, have started to tone down the fear-mongering after all their failed predictions.

  77. Related to the future: The blue, red, & pink lines (with best & worst case scenarios) are all the same up to 2025, so if the C02 increase was worst case (9B tons), the models are still accurate – because they only diverge (from best case to worst case) around 2035.

    The diverge right away, but there’s a clear divergence in 2025. Regardless we’re supposed to be up to 2F and we’ve barely hit 1. It’s not going up another 1F in the next 7.5 years even though we’re continuing on the worst case scenario track.

  78. Suzy, “Yes, around 20%/year so I’ll get an amazing return on my deposit.” …. Doesn’t even seem like it is too complicated to be successful in real estate, just don’t follow the herd.

    True. Although the counter to this is that the herd has made plenty of money following the herd lately. So hard to tell if it’s a good or bad time to buy a condo. I wouldn’t, but I’m also not going to be wildly surprised if buying one now ends up working

  79. I was driving through Sidney yesterday – and noticed sold sign after sold sign. Guess, the market is hot everywhere? Prices are probably, still, slightly more affordable up there than in the core… maybe Van. people like being close to the ferry and airport? Plus – it’s a very attractive (if not all that exciting) place.

  80. 10% of buyers from the lower mainland is a lot. In 2015 and 2014 it was only 6% (and sales are way up since then). Similar percentage from lower mainland as last year.

    Have Lower Mainland buyer percentages ever been that high? (with the exception of last year). How high was that in 2007 for ex.? This might explain junk houses like Carrick selling for $1,225k. If this trend continues we may well see price rises continue as we are still far cheaper than Van.

    The Alberta numbers seem really low, given the number of Alberta plates I constantly see around town. (guess most of them are just visiting?)

    Again, interesting on the US influence here compared to Asia. I didn’t think Asia was that high anyway, and most of the people of Asian descent here probably already Canadians or PR (unless int’ students).

    CFAX was talking the other day about the recent vote in Vic council on asking the province to install the foreign buyer tax here. They said that they voted 4-4 so it got voted down. Interesting anecdote – the council member who was talking on the radio said there should be a speculator tax for anyone regardless of origin, not just a foreign tax, that way we can avoid empty homes like Van has, and keep housing just for living in? I thought – food for thought.

    However, if Lower Mainland people keep coming here to live still in sig. numbers, I don’t see prices going down… if that continues I see disintegration of affordability for working people for SFH in the core continuing to accelerate. One of the things I remember about living in the Lower Mainland was that I encountered many many people, who, like myself – only could dream of living on the island – and when I left to come here many congratulated me on making that difficult transition happen. I made the dream come true for me, and now it would appear others are following (I know not everyone wants to come here but many do). Funny how long term island people who have lived here most or all of their lives forget or don’t realize that. It goes for people from other places too, like Alberta. It just doesn’t get much better than this in Canada…

  81. Personally I believe the climate debate is moot and has historically been a waste of time. In my opinion society should be making the same improvements for other reasons like environmental and health concerns, quality of life, living efficiently, etc., not because there’s impending doom. But I suppose the stalwarts aren’t willing to modify their lifestyles unless they’re faced with catastrophic change. Kind of similar to real estate these days, isn’t it?

    On another note, went to some open houses this weekend and didn’t see a lot of other people coming through. People holding out until after the election I presume.

  82. @Vicbot:

    I’ve worked with differential equations in uni & in engineering – and no, the arguments aren’t “inconclusive” – 99% of scientists agree that the models reproduce past & present climate…

    Here’s what Scott Adams says about that argument:

    Stop telling me the climate models are excellent at hindcasting, meaning they work when you look at history. That is also true of financial models, and we know financial models can NOT predict the future. We also know that investment advisors like to show you their pure-luck past performance to scam you into thinking they can do it in the future. To put it bluntly, climate science is using the most well-known scam method (predicting the past) to gain credibility. That doesn’t mean climate models are scams. It only means scientists picked the least credible way to claim credibility. Were there no options for presenting their case in a credible way?

  83. Hawk

    Home Capital assets will be sold as I tried to explain over and over to your simple mind. This is not a loan issue but a confidence issue about management so money is being pulled out that support the loans.

    I think Marko and other have shown enough sales to show that things are still hot in Victoria.
    I know you have the blues and are sad but coming on here is not going to fix your screwup. Maybe you can ask to go through the house you sold for hundreds of thousands less than what you could get now. Maybe that will help with closure.

  84. Where do the Duncsters go?

    Gold river?

    Gold River just lost their only grocery store last Oct. Now, ‘Gold Riverite’s’ have to travel to Campbell River for groceries (a trip over an hour).

    http://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/huge-loss-small-vancouver-island-town-s-only-grocery-store-closes-1.3187871

    Here’s a listing similar to a 70’s Gordon Head Crap box… in Gold River… lovely mountain views, just like those views of Mt. Doug. 🙂 Here’s an idea, sell your GH crap box for over $1m – buy seven in Gold River! Become a Gold River slumlord! (but wait, no one wants to live in a town w/ no grocery store?)

    https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17448968/528-EAGLE-CRES-GOLD-RIVER-British-Columbia-V0P1G0-Z7-Gold-River

  85. “We actually were close to the worst case scenario w/r to actual emissions produced, yet we didn’t haven’t even hit the lower emissions temperature level. Don’t know how people can take the predictions seriously when it hasn’t really been close.”

    The graph you posted shows the opposite.

    Related to history: The graph shows that the models (in green) accurately reflect the actuals (in black). That’s what the models are supposed to do – reflect history. Also they show temperatures increasing about 1 C since 2000, and they’ve been actually around 0.8C.

    Related to the future: The blue, red, & pink lines (with best & worst case scenarios) are all the same up to 2025, so if the C02 increase was worst case (9B tons), the models are still accurate – because they only diverge (from best case to worst case) around 2035.

    In fact we’re on track to be worse than what was projected in 2001. See the multiple, corroborating, peer-reviewed studies from 2007 & other dates – more info here: http://www.climatecentral.org/news/ipcc-predictions-then-versus-now-15340

    Funny how some people trust science to give them pacemakers, but don’t trust the same scientific method when politicians get involved. Anyway, back to housing.

  86. gwac or AG must have all their relatives panties in a knot. This is just more signs this bubble is about to blow when the one of the few bears gets stalked by a parody account. I’ll take it as a badge of honor. 😉

    It is amazing how some folks are so chickenshit of reading the fact based news like Home Capital fraud exposing the housing bubble and call it “over the edge”, lol.

    Wake up and sell ASAP before the easiest money you’ll ever make disintegrates before your very eyes.

    Spike In Canadian ‘Housing Bubble’ Searches A Sign It May Be Ending

    “Like in the U.S. before its bubble burst, the economy’s dependence on housing construction has reached an all-time high; household debt has hit an all-time high; the number of housing markets seeing rapid price growth has hit an all-time high; the quality of mortgages being issued is on the decline; and at least one major private mortgage lender is in trouble over its lending practices.”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/04/17/housing-bubble-searches-google-canada_n_16061058.html

  87. Marko, “Pre-sales aren’t selling discounted to market anymore; therefore, the only way the unit would appreciate is if the market goes up.”

    Suzy, “Yes, around 20%/year so I’ll get an amazing return on my deposit.”

    Out and out reckless. Anyone who makes an investment choice employing that kind of logic has more money than brains, does not understand elementary investing, and is at significant risk of becoming the poster-child of riches-to-ruin when the market turns.

    “Suzy” isn’t alone, either. There are legions of people that are thinking like this and indeed, I suspect this is what is floating the market more than anything. There’s nothing wrong with a bit of speculation in the market, in fact it can be a good thing. But not this.

    This is the sort of uber dangerous poppycock that causes me to think that when the RE cycle begins anew, the preceding reversion has the potential to be particularly traumatic, even for those who have behaved prudently.

    A little Xanax with my coffee might be helpful?

  88. I wouldn’t say I’m a fan……I do enjoy the balance on here but it seems that Hawk is always going over the edge. I also love the fact that because I don’t agree with him I must have bought too much and I’m downing in debt. Ever thought that I just don’t agree? Also to Deb I never said for him to be quiet…..otherwise it would be very dull around here.

  89. Hawk

    How’s apartment living. How much equity has that apartment made for you? A big fat duck egg. Nice job dude. Nice day out there. Great info MTB willl check in on you latter Hawk to make sure no one believes your lies.

  90. Totoro there are some good tutorials on youtube.

    What you are doing, imo, is taking the SAR for the median house as of July 1, not adjusting it for time or applying a COD, and using it to gauge value.

    No I’m not doing that at all. What I am doing is calculating the median SAR for all of the sales in April and comparing that SAR to the median SAR of all of the sales in a previous month to derive an economic conditions factor of how the SAR has changed or not changed during the two time intervals. I am not using this to gauge value but as a cross check to the analysis from other sources.

    Since the assessed values are as at a specific date and have been acknowledged as a recognized and relaible estimate of value, I am comparing the current sales data to a recognized benchmark. And how that ratio changes over time gives an estimate of how market conditions are changing. This is similar to what an HPI does and what the re-sale method popularized by Case-Shiller does, except any third party can verify the data and can run the numbers and get the same answers.

    The SAR does not always agree with the median or average of the sales in a given month. During the winter months as the volume of sales decreases to under 100 for detached houses in the core, the error in the data gets larger as the sample size gets smaller. Then you need to increase the sample size in order to determine a reliable cross check.

    When you look back at the median and averages in the winter you’ll see big increases in the median and average prices followed by big decreases the next month. The SAR allows you to cross check those wild price swings to see if the median and averages are reliably portraying the marketplace or are subject to sample variability. This is similar to what the HPI developed by the Altus Group purports to do. Or the Case-Shiller Index but with a lot more data points.

  91. One final post before I get back to work…..how nuts are things?

    A home in the Westhills pre-sale purchased for $639,900 (gst included). Never moved into to and sold on completion of construction for $799,000.

  92. Vancouver also still appears to be nuts. One of my clients is buying a condo in Yaletown. He offered $613k on a 462 sq/ft unit in Yaletown listed at $599k earlier this week and got outbid in a multiple offer situation.

  93. Eventually, people that can barely afford the payments hop in the market because they’re tired of being left out. This creates a sudden surge, as the buyer pool explodes. In a market like this, even homes that typically wouldn’t be desirable to buyers start selling at a profit well beyond fundamentals.

    The amount of phone calls I am receiving about investment condos in the last two months is completely off the charts and the logic behind some of them is quite scary.

    A woman called me earlier this week from Vancouver, we will call her Suzy.

    Suzy, “Saw your YouTube videos, seems like you know a lot about pre-sales, I would like to buy one and my budget is around $300,000.”

    Marko, “Not sure if it is a great time to buy to be honest as the cash flow numbers based on 20% down don’t really make any sense anymore.”

    Suzy, “That’s okay, I want to buy so the unit appreciates over the two year build out.”

    Marko, “Pre-sales aren’t selling discounted to market anymore; therefore, the only way the unit would appreciate is if the market goes up.”

    Suzy, “Yes, around 20%/year so I’ll get an amazing return on my deposit.”

    I can’t wrap my head around how quickly people forget that if you bought a condo in 2007/08 you were still under water by 2014, throw in a bad tenant or two during that 6-7 year period and a special assessment….many people lost their shirts. Seems like everyone has forgotten and markets can only go up?

    In my 7 years, I guess my observation would be buy when no one else is buying. I wouldn’t go as far as to say sell when everyone is buying as it could be the start of an upswing but buying when sales volumes are extremely low, especially after a prolonged flat run seems to be the way to go.

    Doesn’t even seem like it is too complicated to be successful in real estate, just don’t follow the herd.

  94. Oh yeah I totally forgot to mention. The VREB is now publishing the buyer origin reports quarterly. Hooray!

    Foreign buyer numbers are very similar to those collected of the province. Less than 5%. Even though I am not a fan of governments interfering in market the foreign buyer tax would have helped to cool off the madness by influencing non-foreign buyer psychology.

  95. Love the smell of napalm in the morning. I was worried that Hawk-n-Gwac had reconciled or something.

    With respect to the Vancouver buyer numbers, I’m curious as to what the ratio of shelter vs investor buys are. If some in Vancouver think Victoria is the next New Paradigm™, a few might look to tap into equity to make a speculative purchase. OB comes to mind. Doubt there’s any way to know, but curious nonetheless.

  96. “I question everything.

    Reminds me of a quote that seems to apply to you: “If you open your mind too much your brain will fall out”

    Not much left to pick up. It rains for a couple hours and the guy suddenly has no life. 😉

  97. “People like Gwac are around us, and it is fucking scary.”

    Only the second thing I’ve ever agreed with you Introvert. I think he drinks a lot, no one can be that fucked up. Did you see Trump praising his record crowd rally last night with all the empty seats and no line ups outside other than protesters ?

    Gwac is our HHV Canadian Trumpster. Next thing he’ll tell us is renting is the gateway to heroin. 😉

    Nice to see I have a new fan club member. Must have bought too much house and feeling the pain of all that large mortgage payment going down the drain month after month.

  98. Victoria is Vancouver’s Duncan. The great shuffle is happening. International money is pushing out the Vancouverites who sell their houses for three million and come here thinking a million is nothing. Victorians sell their house for a million and think half a million is nothing up island. Problem is I think Duncan has a .05% Vacancy rate right now…. Where do the Duncsters go?

  99. Oh yeah I totally forgot to mention. The VREB is now publishing the buyer origin reports quarterly. Hooray!

    For Q1 2017:
    Victoria and South Island: 76.49%
    North Island: 2.24%
    Lower mainland: 10.06%
    Other BC: 2.3%
    AB: 2.42%
    ON/QC: 2.12%
    Other Provinces: 1.14%
    USA: 2.36%
    Asia: 0.55%
    Other countries: 0.3%

    10% of buyers from the lower mainland is a lot. In 2015 and 2014 it was only 6% (and sales are way up since then). Similar percentage from lower mainland as last year.

  100. Because you’re not grasping the point about medians

    It is a very difficult concept.

    Saying that the values ranged between 94 to 170 percent does not mean that the assessments are wrong by 94 to 170 percent.

    No it doesn’t because that is jibber jabber. If you sell and get 94% of assessed the sale it is not off from assessed by 94%.

    you’ll find that they test their data for accuracy against sale prices as at the effective date of July 1 to within a 97% to 100%

    It seems that BCCA doesn’t evaluate this against all sales. They use the median sale and adjust for inflation/deflation (time). You also need to know the coefficient of dispersion, adjusted for time, to really gauge accuracy.

    What you are doing, imo, is taking the SAR for the median house as of July 1, not adjusting it for time or applying a COD, and using it to gauge value.

    This is also why sales to assessed for the median, never mind the rest of sales, is so far off of the July 1 number when you are looking at sales occurring in April.

  101. /image_large

    Those are the IPCC predictions made in 2001 based on computer models.
    We actually were close to the worst case scenario w/r to actual emissions produced, yet we didn’t haven’t even hit the lower emissions temperature level.

    Don’t know how people can take the predictions seriously when it hasn’t really been close.

  102. “The argument is inconclusive if you have even the slightest knowledge of partial differential equations.”

    I’ve worked with differential equations in uni & in engineering – and no, the arguments aren’t “inconclusive” – 99% of scientists agree that the models reproduce past & present climate, and so they are useful in predicting future climate. Just because there are some drawbacks to the models doesn’t make them inconclusive.

    The same math & physics equations that go into those models are the ones that make your iPhone & Internet work. So why don’t you just go out and design your own semiconductors, firmware, & software that operate all your electronic toys that you use everyday.

    It’s the same reason I trust a heart surgeon to operate on my parents – not Dr. Quack who has decided that PL Premium adhesive is good way to mend arteries.

    So yes, if thousands of scientists have devoted decades of hard work to understanding the models, and reviewing their peers’ work, I’m going to trust them, not some kneejerk “skeptics” that try to poke holes in things they don’t understand.

    That’s the kind of lazy thinking that gets us quacks like Oneal Ron Morris injecting cement into people’s butts (look it up)

  103. I’m not implying it’s impending, but the same is true the other way around when people have made a bundle of cash.

    Of course. Problem is, many people can’t even imagine such an occurrence in Canadian RE, let alone accept the possibility.

  104. Local Fool:
    “Eventually, people that can barely afford the payments hop in the market because they’re tired of being left out. This creates a sudden surge, as the buyer pool explodes. In a market like this, even homes that typically wouldn’t be desirable to buyers start selling at a profit well beyond fundamentals.”

    I’m not implying it’s impending, but the same is true the other way around when people have made a bundle of cash.

  105. @Deb. The term “climate change” is not correct either. Climate change is a sexy term that researchers put into their proposals to win funding from the government. Online courses offer little credibility if that’s the bulk of your background on the topic.

    I get a kick out of the people who use the Flat Earth argument to discredit deniers. This argument suggest that deniers are similar to those who believed the Earth was flat centuries ago, and that they’re a minority who believe in an incredibly dated premise. In actuality, however, at that time the Earth was widely accepted to be flat and those who believed the Earth was round were in fact the minority (who were stoned to death for being correct). A similar thing likely happens today when believers chastise deniers.

    The argument is inconclusive if you have even the slightest knowledge of partial differential equations. But few seem to know what those even are and unfortunately most learn about climatology through the media.

    Don’t worry though, the land value of your house will probably increase as it becomes waterfront with the previous waterfront homes crumbling from magnitude 10 earthquakes and washed away by 100 foot high tsunamis! Buy into the culture of fear, just like FOMO.

  106. 1608 Michelle Pl, Gordon Head, was listed at $885,0oo and sold for $: $1,020,000.
    Judt my opinion, but I think that’s ridiculous.

  107. Perhaps I am stating the obvious but Heritage houses vary dramatically. A lot of them where crap house when they were built and time has not improved them any.

    On the other hand there are a handful of the old manor houses that were of superb quality that have dramatically increased in price because of the value of the craftsmanship. Not my house but I looked at one house that had an intricate marble carved fireplace surround that took a team of master Florence stonemasons four years to carve. The solid mahogany paneling had detailed carvings throughout. These houses are the exception and the cost to reproduce these features in a new house would be immense just in the cost of materials alone but such is not the case in most heritage houses. They may be old, they may be cute but they also may be a nightmare for maintenance.

  108. I don’t take the $motivations of either side too seriously, but I would bet we get “Another Ice Age” scare in the next decade or two (like the 70s), as I do think we go through natural cooling patterns as well.

    Sorry for the off-topic, but one has to admit it is an entertaining ‘blast from the past’ on a cold & rainy Sat afternoon.

  109. How could assessed possibly be a reliable gauge as to either market value or a consistent measure of the percent they are off if people are buying for 94-170% of assessed value

    I did. There will always be outliers.

    What do you think that meant?

    Because you’re not grasping the point about medians. Saying that the values ranged between 94 to 170 percent does not mean that the assessments are wrong by 94 to 170 percent. More than 98% of assessments are not appealed. If you look on BC Assessments web site you’ll find that they test their data for accuracy against sale prices as at the effective date of July 1 to within a 97% to 100% for the residential assessment roll.

    Median: denoting or relating to a value or quantity lying at the midpoint of a frequency distribution of observed values or quantities, such that there is an equal probability of falling above or below it

  110. Yeah this rain is going to kill sales for the month for sure. Probably the start of the long awaited crash. That’s what always happens in low inventory high demand periods. The crash happens.

  111. Thanks Leo. Did you actually believe me about the climate change thing. :). I just love stirring shit and getting a reaction.

    We are fucking up our planet so badly. Kids and future generations pay the price. Hey I bike about 10,000 km a year. Trying to do my part.

    Where’s Hawk. House buying?

  112. Gwac script. Good one. You want me to stop. Your board. Just let me know.:)

    Nope I’ve calmed down again. Carry on.

  113. It’s raining and I am bored.

    No kidding. I remember 2011 was a similar summer, and at least one other where it was cold well into july….

  114. Leo only on the weekend? The weekdays are for keeping Hawk in check. That work for you. It’s raining and I am bored.

  115. My gwac script is getting out of hand again. Should have programmed less “shit disturbing factor” into it. 🙂

  116. @Gwac “Global warming is the the biggest BS to come out ever.”

    This is the comment you made and why I thought you might need a little help with the correct terminology.

    Could you tell me what sources you consider reliable?

  117. Oak island is a perfect example of how gullible people are. 200 plus years ago someone saw lights on the island and for the past 200 years people have dug up that island over and over searching for treasure. It has a TV show right now. For the past 5 years it is one of the highest audience cable shows

    In general people are gullible and believe almost anything from what they may perceive as a reliable source.

  118. Let me guess … 9/11 was an inside job.

    It was, actually.

    People like Gwac Introvert are around us, and it is fucking scary.

  119. Deb “Hawk is the balance”. That is the funniest thing I have ever read on here.

    I hope no one has actually listened to him on not making a home purchase the past 5 years or whatever he has been on here

  120. I used climate change. “Not climate change but cycles”

    Dasmo I question everything on all sides. Logic test is what I use.

  121. The argument that you don’t trust the assessed values is not important

    Think carefully now about that statement in light of your statement here:

    In general what were buyers paying for houses in the core this April? Anywhere between 94 to 170 percent of their government assessed values. The typical or median buyer paying 24% over the properties government assessed value.

    How could assessed possibly be a reliable gauge as to either market value or a consistent measure of the percent they are off if people are buying for 94-170% of assessed value?

    Can you tell me what specific things you would like to monitor that you can’t currently?

    What I’m missing is an interface with listing and sales data that allows me to quickly sort information and compare it, particularly individual sales data.

  122. @ whoever is trying to stop Hawk having his say.
    You sound very paranoid, I looked back and Hawk hasn’t commented for the last few hours! Without Hawk most of you would be blowing smoke up you know where. He is the balance on this site, you have to take the bad with the good or it’s all one sided!

  123. Questioning everything is good. Are you questioning the deniers? My favourite thing they do is take that NASA ice core sample climate chart and just crop it tight so it looks like a normal up up/down cycle over millennia. The crop disguises the straight up curve at the end that shoots off the scale…. speaking of misleading with charts…. that they do this knowingly speaks bounds to their credibility…

  124. I have been reading this blog for years and HAWK is just getting worse and worse. TAKE A CHILL PILL ! It’s like you want everyone to crash and burn and than stand and laugh at them. It’s always the same “The crash is minutes away thank god I sold”. Get over yourself!!!! You sold at a bad time and now your regretting your choice. Yes the market will go down but not in a ball of flames with bodies all over the place like you make it sound. You have no credibility any more and people are well aware of this.

  125. Mr. Keohane said Friday that he doesn’t view the Home Capital investment as risky because the pension plan will be provided with $2 worth of mortgages as collateral for every $1 it lends to Home Capital

    That’s a bit of strange statement that he made. If you bought a home for a $100,000 three years ago with financing by Home Capital and now that property has slightly more than doubled that increase in your equity makes buying Home Capital less risky. Although Home Capital has no control over what you do with your home. You could leverage everything tomorrow changing that 1 to 2 ratio.

    My guess is that if you have enough equity you are going to be looking around for a different lender. Only those that have very little equity will be keeping their mortgage with Home Capital.

    A similar thing happened in the 1980’s when Household Finance bought out failing Columbia Trust. Or more recently when Wells Fargo pulled out of Canada and people had to find new financing or be foreclosed on.

    This is not good for consumer confidence.

  126. I question everything.

    Reminds me of a quote that seems to apply to you: “If you open your mind too much your brain will fall out”

  127. Let me guess—the moon landing was faked,

    Are you talking about the American or Chinese moon landing?

  128. FINANCIAL SERVICES
    Home Capital scrambles for buyer as deposits fall further

    NIALL MCGEE, JANET MCFARLAND, ANDREW WILLIS AND JACQUELINE NELSON
    The Globe and Mail
    Last Updated: Friday, Apr. 28, 2017 6:57PM EDT
    Home Capital Group Inc. was scrambling Friday to find a deal that would stabilize the company as investors continued to withdraw funds from their savings accounts.

    The Toronto-based company is pitching a variety of financial institutions on a rescue package, but investment banking sources said the best possible price may come from breaking up the company and selling portions of its mortgage portfolio to regional financial institutions.

    Home Capital is the country’s largest alternative mortgage lender with $18-billion of home loans outstanding, a portfolio that would be difficult to swallow for rivals in the alternative mortgage sector, such as credit unions, small mortgage lenders, Montreal-based Laurentian Bank and Edmonton-based Canadian Western Bank. But these institutions, along with private equity firms, could still bid for pieces of Home Capital.

    “The made-in-Canada solution for Home Capital would be to put the company’s assets into stable hands, and those buyers will vary by region,” one investment banker working with potential bidders said.

    Private equity bidders could include New York-based J.C. Flowers & Co., which invests in financial services companies and entered the domestic market earlier this year by acquiring alternative lender Citi Financial, which had $2.5-billion in assets and 217 branches across Canada. Earlier this year, J.C. Flowers founder and CEO J. Christopher Flowers said he expected to expand the company’s Canadian real estate lending business.

    Canada’s six big banks are notable for their absence on a list of bidders. Home Capital lends money to home buyers who have been turned down by the major banks and none of these institutions is expected to enter the alternative mortgage sector by acquiring the company. National Bank of Canada proactively called the equity analysts who follow the company this week to say it would not bid on Home Capital after being asked if it was a potential buyer.

    The company’s financial woes have mounted over the past week as depositors have pulled funds from savings accounts at subsidiary Home Trust. The company revealed Friday that high-interest savings account balances fell another 36 per cent to $521-million by Friday morning, down from $814-million Thursday and more than $2-billion a month ago.

    Canada’s banking industry regulator, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), has gathered data from other financial institutions this week, both to monitor for signs of a broader depositor panic and to track where funds are moving as they leave Home Trust.

    OSFI sent an urgent request Wednesday to several smaller and mid-sized financial institutions and credit unions to provide the regulator with up-to-date information about their savings accounts, according to a source. Specifically, OSFI wanted to know the institutions’ most recent account totals for high-interest savings accounts, as well as data on recent redemptions and current levels of high-quality liquid assets.

    The request, to be fulfilled as soon as institutions are able, can be seen as an attempt to take the pulse of the market by tracking where deposits flowing out of Home Capital may be going, and to gauge whether there is any contagion among other institutions. In recent days, some smaller and mid-sized institutions have also struck up early-stage discussions about whether multiple institutions could join together to explore a deal to buy some of Home Capital’s assets, a source said.

    A spokesperson for OSFI said in an e-mail that the regulator “undertakes various supervisory activities” over the institutions it supervises, but is prevented by law from discussing that work.

    While Home Capital’s problems erupted this week, it is now clear that concerns about its stability have been percolating behind the scenes for months, creating a backdrop that left the company vulnerable to any signs of trouble.

    Last November, Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. told its financial advisers they could no longer steer investors to high-interest savings accounts at Home Capital or rival alternative mortgage lender Equitable Bank. Client money already placed with either bank had to be moved within 60 days.

    Canaccord said it was concerned about the risks mounting in the alternative lending sector, saying in an internal memo that the rate of interest on the savings accounts was no longer high enough to offset the risks of being exposed to Canada’s overheated housing sector. The memo also said Canaccord was worried government mortgage constraints announced in October could cause new mortgage growth to decline.

    Since then, more banks have taken similar steps. After Home Capital revealed in March it was under investigation by the Ontario Securities Commission over its disclosure practices, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce introduced a cap of $100,000 per client for purchases of Home Capital guaranteed investment certificates (GICs), which is the maximum level covered by Canada’s deposit insurer.

    A spokesperson from Royal Bank of Canada said that, “several weeks ago” the bank introduced a $100,000 cap on Home Capital GICs bought through a full-service broker, although there were no limits for purchases through the firm’s discount brokerage.

    Late last week, Bank of Nova Scotia said it would stop selling all GICs sold by Home Trust, but said Monday that policy was amended to a limit of $100,000. Bank of Montreal’s brokerage unit also confirmed it has a $100,000 limit on Home Trust GICs but would not say when it went into force.

    Several of the banks imposed their GIC caps last week after the OSC unveiled a series of allegations, accusing Home Capital and a number of current and former executives of making “materially misleading statements” to investors.

    The OSC news shook investors, but the panic was heightened as news of the banks’ moves to cap investor deposits slowly seeped through Bay Street in subsequent days, raising concerns that major financial institutions were pulling away from Home Capital.

    There was a further spark to the powder keg.

    Sources said that, behind the scenes, some short sellers who have been aggressively betting against Home Capital began calling financial advisers late last week to share information and speculation about major banks curtailing deposits with Home Trust, further stoking concerns about the firm’s viability.

    By Wednesday this week, when Home Capital publicly revealed it was seeking a $2-billion loan to backstop its sinking savings deposits, shareholders ran for the exits, driving down the company’s share price by 65 per cent on Wednesday alone, and heightening the sense of panic.

    “When you have a run on the bank, people get spooked and they sell and ask questions later,” said a Bay Street investment banker. “It’s investor psychology that takes over.”

    Home Capital’s share price rebounded somewhat on Thursday after the company reported it had locked-in a new $2-billion line of financing from a lender, later identified as a syndicate led by Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan (HOOPP), which is the largest investor in the group.

    Jim Keohane, CEO of HOOPP, had been a director of Home Capital until Thursday, but said he stepped away from the boardroom on Tuesday to remove the conflict of interest when it became clear HOOPP might step in as a lender.

    Mr. Keohane said Friday that he doesn’t view the Home Capital investment as risky because the pension plan will be provided with $2 worth of mortgages as collateral for every $1 it lends to Home Capital.

    “We take comfort from the underlying asset portfolio, so we are not looking at Home Capital as a credit,” said Mr. Keohane in an interview with Business News Network television. He added that a correction in the housing market is not of great concern, since the values of homes would need to plummet by more than 65 per cent for the fund to make no return beyond the value of its principal commitment.

    Mr. Keohane also said that the funding syndicate would rank above Home Capital’s other lenders.

    “We have security interest in the collateral we’ve received, so we have the right to sell that collateral if we don’t get paid. And then the balance that’s left over would go to recovery for other creditors.”

    When asked if Home Capital could survive this run on its deposits, Mr. Keohane said it was possible.

    “I think it’s a viable business,” he said. “Their cost of funding is going to go up, which may impact earnings… it’s always a possibility that some other institution may have an interest in taking the entity over. If you can have access to a lower funding cost, I mean, it’s quite an attractive purchase.”

    Many investors are unwilling to wait and see whether things stabilize, however.

    Late Friday, Home Capital’s second biggest shareholder, Calgary-based QV Investors Inc. disclosed that it liquidated its position, selling 8.4 million shares. QV Investors previously held a 12.8-per-cent stake in Home Capital. Toronto-based Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. is Home Capital’s biggest shareholder with 13.6 per cent stake, according to Thomson Reuters data.

    With files from James Bradshaw and Christina Pellegrini

    HOME CAPITAL GROUP INC

  129. Intro people like you who believe everything that is thrown at them is even scarier.

    Don’t get me started on religion and having imaginary friends. 🙂

    I question everything.

  130. Because we have a short growing season on the island we need to get things planted by the third week of May. But because this has been an unusually cool year the ground hasn’t warmed up enough so with three weeks left it’s getting worrisome that it may become a bad year for tomatoes, cucumbers, squash, peppers, etc.

    In this case I am looking at the trend of cooler temperatures and if this trend continues then I might make a decision to plant other vegetables in the place of tomatoes, cucumbers etc.

    Much like looking at the trends in real estate. If prices are trending lower, I might not want to buy that second, third or 57th rental property.

  131. Global warming is the the biggest BS to come out ever.

    Let me guess—the moon landing was faked, and 9/11 was an inside job.

    Scientist have studied that :). Crisis are created for funding and excuse to tax.

    People like Gwac are around us, and it is fucking scary.

  132. Definitely John, seeing the early data is great. My % confidence level in conclusions, though, depends on how much history I can compare it to.

  133. Vic

    Yep on certain things I feel people/groups and governments are up to no good or using scare tactics to move their agendas forward.

  134. Also remember daily weather is different than long-term climate change, similar to how Leo is saying you can’t predict a pattern based on 4 months of data.

    Over the long term real estate prices increase. I doubt that there is anyone on this blog disagreeing with that. But there are downturns in the markets that may last years or even a decade.

    But wouldn’t you like to know today, if prices were trending higher, lower or remaining stable?

    As John Maynard Keynes said. “The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is past the ocean is flat again.”

  135. Buyers preferences do not change. The available housing stock changes. Not in a certain direction, but randomly based on what is listed.

    What houses sell every month is different but when there are a lot of sales the median is a very good measure. And the house represented by the median in the core has not changed for the last four months in either house or lot size. All that has changed is the price.

    But even if this were so, cross checking those median results against how the sales to assessment ratios were changing would indicate how reliable the medians were or were not. Since the sales to assessment ratio is calculated differently than medians or averages.

    The argument that you don’t trust the assessed values is not important. The assessments are calculated logically and consistently by recognized valuation methodology regardless if it is a starter home in Oaklands or a Gordon Head home. You’re now measuring the sale price against a recognized value set as at a specific date in time. How that ratio changes with time therefore indicates how prices are changing regardless of the sales mix. An independent and distinctly different method than just looking at medians. Much like how the HPI could be used to verify the reliability of using medians or averages or vice versa.

  136. Yes brutal weather – it’s the lingering effects of La Nina over the winter (opposite of El Nino). But it’s also true that in the long term, the expected effects of global warming are higher rainfall in southern BC.

    Also remember daily weather is different than long-term climate change, similar to how Leo is saying you can’t predict a pattern based on 4 months of data.

    Don’t worry though – the insurance companies are already factoring in climate change, because they know how to analyze patterns and risks.

  137. It is brutal. Still have my insert going. Never had it on in April before. Better not be a sign of the summer.

    Global warming is the the biggest BS to come out ever.

  138. More important than what is going on in the core. What the hell is happening to our weather? It sucks this year.

    Too many vancouver buyers brought the weather over.

  139. More important than what is going on in the core. What the hell is happening to our weather? It sucks this year.

  140. If I understand your question about sales mix, you are inferring that buyers of houses in the core have bought different styles, houses sizes, lot sizes or quality in some or all of the months?

    Correct. Plot the value of all the SFH in the core. They will cluster around a mean value, but there is still large variability there. Now take a couple hundred of them randomly and sell them. The median will change significantly depending on which couple hundred you hit.

    The assumption that prospective buyers preferences collectively are different each month enough to change the sales mix is an interesting one

    Buyers preferences do not change. The available housing stock changes. Not in a certain direction, but randomly based on what is listed.

  141. Low levels of defaults are a sign that markets are highly liquid, and therefore getting closer to the top

    Agree with the first part, and agree that defaults are always low in a rising market, but saying that low defaults are a sign that the market is close to the top is not well supported.

  142. I’ve seen some completely renovated Fairfield and OB homes go for very high prices, much closer to new than to other same age homes

    Definitely. I don’t disagree they will be close to new prices. Also if they are heritage that’s different, a restored heritage home could go for more than a new house (this not based on any data, just saying different buyers, unique product)

  143. Once in a while I also think about writing the exam to get access to data.

    Can you tell me what specific things you would like to monitor that you can’t currently?

  144. As I said before, the month is an arbitrary time period. The reason why we use a month is by convention. It is the size of the data pool that is important and not the time period. Instead of a month, you could block groups of 150 sales. I would prefer that method but it is unconventional and most people faced with something different find difficulty.

    The more data the greater reliability. Of course you can increase the reliability by increasing the quality of the data. And that’s what the HPI purports to do. By following a hypothetical house of a certain size, age, etc. And how that hypothetical property has or has not increased each month. Of course if your home is not represented by that hypothetical property then as the saying goes your mileage may vary.

    A test for accuracy is simply comparing the median price of a property at one time interval to that of another time period to derive a factor for changing economic conditions. Take several random purchases and compare their past sales history. If that factor matches the factor of median prices in the two time periods then using monthly medians is reliable. The same test should indicate the reliability of the HPI. Doing that test, I find that during low sales months, the month to month error is larger in November and December. But you can solve that problem during those low sale months by using a larger time interval than the arbitrary month or blocking groups of 150 sales at a time.

    This is a unique year in that the distribution of property values have almost always had a normal distribution illustrated by a bell curve. That that normal distribution has been flattened as buyers have been forced out of the market is foretelling of a change coming to the market. Back in 2000, it was foretelling of rapidly increasing market prices. But most people would agree house prices had been under performing relative to the economy and were just catching up. I doubt you could find an economist that would say that is the same today.

  145. Or put another way, whatever goes up, must go up and up for ever.

    CS — I don’t necessarily think what goes up goes up forever, but I do think OB or Fairfield are the last places to go down and the first places to go up.

    I don’t actually think what’s currently going on is a good situation for continuity of what was once a vibrant community in Victoria’s core. Much the same is starting to happen here – later- than Vancouver. I lived in Vancouver for 20 years from the late 1980’s to 2007 (with a two year absence in England in that time) and I can tell you I saw Vancouver go from vibrant to bad to worse… the situation it’s in now is even worse than when I left in 2007. I’d hate to see that happen here b/c one of the things I love about Victoria is it still has that sense of community that Van once had (though I see it changing very fast now – things still have a long way to go to get as bad as Vancouver).

  146. Very interesting article in the Globe and Mail about the insane housing situation in Vancouver.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/housing-talk-gets-louder-and-angrier-in-vancouver/article34850038/

    I feel there’s lots of parallels to Victoria in the sense that some of the locals here seem apathetic about what could and possibly is happening here in the core – the disintegration of community when local incomes do not support housing price levels.

    I see this in my job where about 1000 people work – the new people hired usually can’t afford to live in a SFH in the core anymore and, if they want to buy something other than a condo, everyone has to live in the westshore b/c that’s where incomes support housing costs. So, when I tell people I live in OB (this after someone had mentioned they wished a ‘meteorite’ would hit OB). Often they ask ‘why are you working at all then?’ So, it leaves me feeling odd. I do find more senior people where I work that live in the core or OB that bought in way back in the past when it was more affordable, but most of the new people aren’t living in a SFH in the core anymore.

    So, it’s the same phenomenon that is gripping Vancouver – people living in the core aren’t reliant on local incomes (for the most part) and people living in the far flung suburbs are paying the price and taxes. And, here as well, in the future, we may be facing the disintegration what was once a vibrant community…

  147. @ Luke:

    So, in 30 months living there, the owners did nothing to the house … just sitting in their home these owners made (even after I factor in PTT they paid when buying, and RE commissions for Binab when selling)… drumroll… rounded off… over $13,000 tax free per month! Or… Well over $400 per day!

    That’s right, this is why RE is so interesting right now

    Or put another way, whatever goes up, must go up and up for ever. Do I have that right?

  148. Here’s a recent sale in my hood in North OB:

    2090 Carrick Rd Listed for $1,350k sold for $1,225k.

    At first glance that list/sales ratio may not look good, but delve into the sales history… the house sold for $780k in Dec. 2014.

    So, in 30 months living there, the owners did nothing to the house (I went to the OH). The house was a piece of crap, 1912 build with a bit of heritage actually. Anyway, just sitting in their home these owners made (even after I factor in PTT they paid when buying, and RE commissions for Binab when selling)… drumroll… rounded off… over $13,000 tax free per month! Or… Well over $400 per day!

    That’s right, this is why RE is so interesting right now, that’s more than twice what I make at my relatively well paid gov’t job. This is just for sitting in a house doing nothing. Nice work if you can get it, and keep it, and move somewhere cheaper… however – what does it do to our communities in the future if this nonsense keeps up?

  149. If you are talking about SFHs, which I was not sure you were, and am still not clear on the definition of core, I have access to the number of sales for Jan, Feb and March – everyone does – it is public info: http://www.vreb.org/media/attachments/view/doc/statsrelease2017_03/pdf/March

    If you are talking about the core as the following, March had 180 sales.

    Victoria West 11 $8,547,500
    Oak Bay 23 $29,507,020
    Esquimalt 10 $6,930,400
    View Royal 8 $4,826,750
    Saanich East 80 $81,425,761
    Saanich West 31 $22,134,520
    Central Saanich 17 $$14,775,400

    And there was a 45% decline in active listings over last year, which goes a long way to explaining a 46% decline in sales volume. February had 157 sales and January a 156.

    The assumption that prospective buyers preferences collectively are different each month enough to change the sales mix is an interesting one.

    There is no assumption about buyer preference. The inventory is low enough that market priced houses are selling in fewer days than last year. What the issue is sample size and diversity. Given the wide range of housing in these diverse areas and the sample size, a monthly median cannot be reliable in indicating a pattern imo because what types of houses will be put on the market in a given month varies. And if, for example, as Barrister has stated, fewer high end uplands houses are selling now, that would be enough to skew the monthly median for houses under a million.

    The assessment may be different but not necessarily the ratio.

    I’m not sure what you mean by this..

    Or that I am making a prediction on which way prices are going some time in the future.

    I didn’t say you were, I said the data doesn’t create a pattern when given on a monthly basis in response to your statement that this was a flat market. I was also pointing out your analysis is faulty on the assessed to price being a reliable way to measure value, imo.

  150. John D, I enjoy your posts because they provide a few more examples of what we’re seeing out there especially ” This year is shaping up to be a year without a Spring Market for houses in the core.”
    Every poster offers some new perspective or information, and I don’t always agree with people’s conclusions, but that doesn’t matter because we’re here to share ideas. Sometimes it’s high-level observations that are interesting, and not necessarily the weeds, other times it can be the other way around.

    Michael, I see your point on the C$. I just have to look around at relatives & friends who bought properties in the US when the C$ was high to see examples of what Canadians & Americans have been doing for decades.

    The only part I would argue is that it’s only 1 factor. There are many other factors contributing to our high prices, and that’s why we don’t see a direct correlation in all years between a low C$ and high RE prices.

    by the way, new TC article about tech in downtown: http://www.timescolonist.com/capital-victoria-s-tech-industry-breaths-life-into-downtown-1.17539712

  151. At Vicbot:

    From what I’ve been tracking, a reno’d home can sell for more than a new home

    Because there are no new homes, or very few, where some people want to buy, e.g., North Oak Bay. So if you take a 1950’s clunker and tart it up with some Hardiboard siding, a bit of stained cedar, and a patio with fancy outdoor furniture, someone may pay four mills for a house that sold for just over one mill, a year or so ago.

    LF: thanks for the link to the enlightening article on the inverse relation between the mortgage default rate and house prices.

  152. Just to make it clear to the readers. A lot of what Totoro is inferring is not what I wrote about. I have been clear of the market segment I have been measuring. If she would stay on topic, I might answer some of her unsubstantiated assumptions. Such as that there isn’t enough data when she doesn’t know the size of the data in the first place. Or that the sales to assessment ratio would be different for a newer house to one that is 20 years old? The assessment may be different but not necessarily the ratio. Besides only 13 new houses were sold in the core since January. They are not significant relative to the hundreds of sales that occurred. Or that the months of inventory is the only predictor of price – it isn’t. The indicators of new listings to sales or days on market are important as well as affordability and buyers confidence. All have to be weighed not just one. Or that I am making a prediction on which way prices are going some time in the future. All I have said is that I expect the market for houses in the core to follow recognized economic theory regarding market shortages and surpluses.

  153. @3Richard Haysom:

    Victoria’s % of higher end homes is enormous in comparison and stretches into miles of continuous communities. It is absolutely amazing, and makes Victoria completely unique.

    Uniqueness is complete — by definition.

    But if Victoria is unique in its abundance of higher end homes, why, for such a small chilly town, are those higher end homes so expensive, with prices in the Uplands doubling and, in some cases, redoubling over the last several years?

  154. From what I’ve been tracking, a reno’d home can sell for more than a new home depending on the extent of the renos, especially if some work was done to the outside. A good example is 3705 Crestview – great single-level living space (attractive to aging boomers) with a peekaboo view that sold for more than $2M with excellent modernization of the outside, even if you have to walk through the dining room to get to the master bedroom. (new homes often have too many stairs)

    Speaking of boomers, I hear more & more people in their 50s saying they’re reno’ing their home to have the laundry on the main floor, their master bedroom suite there, etc, so that they won’t have to move out when they’re older. That’s why some reno’d homes are getting high prices (besides the ones bought by millennials) – depending on the reno.

    It’s popular to say “just move into a seniors home at 80” but the disadvantages with loss of privacy and control over one’s own space is the same whether you’re 30 or 80. Unless you have dementia it makes you feel like you’re 30, at home, with just a few more aches & pains.

  155. Depends on the stat. If you’re using average or median prices, then no, 4 months is not enough. We’ve seen plenty of periods of 4 months where prices went counter to the trend. Didn’t mean a thing except the sales mix happened to produce that outcome in that month.

    What I provided were the median prices and sales/assessment ratio for each month for single family homes in the core. A small geographical area with a radius of about 8 kilometers from downtown City hall. The data is detached houses only. Not condos or town homes or revenue properties. If I understand your question about sales mix, you are inferring that buyers of houses in the core have bought different styles, houses sizes, lot sizes or quality in some or all of the months?

    This is what makes real estate different than other items measured by supply and demand. The market value of a can of soup measures an identical item to the one before and the one after. Or a stock is identical to the next stock. In real estate rarely are two houses let alone thousands of homes are identical to one another. That’s why market value (not market/purchase price) is a range in value and not an exact number like a can of soup or a stock.

    The assumption that prospective buyers preferences collectively are different each month enough to change the sales mix is an interesting one. Just as when steak becomes too expensive people shift to hamburger. Since more people this month are buying hamburger then the median price for meat would be lower. There are several things that can be looked at to see if this is a reasonable assertion such as if the size of the house or the lot is significantly smaller or larger in each month. If one or both of these key physical aspects have changed then there is a likely hood that other aspects that can’t be measured objectively such as quality has changed too. This assumption also requires that people listing their homes are altering what they are selling too.

    I don’t think that is a reasonable assumption, as buyers’ preferences are slow to change. That kind of change would take decades or generations and not months. And besides there are enough prospective buyers at different incomes and down payments levels to purchase homes at the various prices in the core.

    In January the typical property that sold in the core was 2,210 sft on a 7,320 sft lot
    In February the typical property was 2,209 sft on a 7,203 sft lot
    In March it was a 2,156 sft house on a 7,161 sft lot
    April is a 2,113 sft house on a 7,255 sft lot.

    That doesn’t mean that buyers are not opting out of buying a house in the core or switching to buying condos. I am not measuring that shift. I am only measuring one market segment and that is detached houses in the core and that mix in that market segment does not appear to have changed.

  156. Hi HHVers.

    One of the things we tend to hear is that the RE markets are in good shape in as far as there are a low level of people defaulting on their mortgage. In actuality, it’s more likely that this indicates an imbalance. I have pasted an excerpt from a new article by Betterdwelling in the context of Toronto RE, and I think it explains this paradox quite well.

    “Real estate markets are healthy because there’s a low level of defaults, right? In actuality, it’s the opposite. Low levels of defaults are a sign that markets are highly liquid, and therefore getting closer to the top. High levels of defaults occur at the bottom of a crash. Why? It’s actually pretty simple… supply and demand – although not in the way you might think.

    Don’t confuse demand for shelter with demand for buying a home – this is the latter. As prices increase, more buyers assume it’s a safe bet to jump into real estate. Eventually, people that can barely afford the payments hop in the market because they’re tired of being left out. This creates a sudden surge, as the buyer pool explodes. In a market like this, even homes that typically wouldn’t be desirable to buyers start selling at a profit well beyond fundamentals.

    This market is highly liquid, as there are way more buyers than there are homes. There’s little reason to fall behind on your payments, because if you do, you just list it for sale. You leave with a profit, and feel like an investment genius. People rarely fall behind in this market.”

    https://betterdwelling.com/mortgage-defaults-dont-indicate-real-estate-bubble-lack-defaults/

  157. Michael, I agree with you. The only reason I posted that is five years ago that was a decision I faced: buy a place in the US or a more expensive place here. The US place, which we did not buy due to tax complications, looked like a better decision until the recent run-up.

    Leo, I agree the HPI is not the best measure. I don’t know what BC Assessment aggregate data is used for but it was the use of individual assessments to judge whether the sales price was good value. Not a reliable measure imo.

    If you know a sub-area really well and track sales against bc assessment data you’ll soon see that the variance is significant. In my experience, new builds are assessed really high while older builds that have been fully renovated are often assessed at the same value as a completely unrenovated house of the same age.

    A brand new home will definitely sell for more than a 20 year full reno. The house is still 20 years old.

    I’ve seen some completely renovated Fairfield and OB homes go for very high prices, much closer to new than to other same age homes. I don’t have access to the data I’d need to understand this and you do so your opinion is probably better on this.

  158. I agree that if you are trying to time the market you’d want to know what the market is doing based on a shorter period of time.

    What I’m saying is that, in practical terms, the monthly data is too small of a sample size spread across to wide of an area and unsorted by type, you cannot time the market because the stats do not show a reliably meaningful pattern short-term. What looks flat then rises. A gradual decline reverses. A jump up levels off. And I don’t believe you can time the market in any event because, until the crystal ball is invented, you cannot predict the market pattern except that, long-term, it goes up.

    A more reliable measure of what the market will do than monthly median of unsorted houses across a broad area has been months of inventory.

    My take is don’t try to time the market. Buy when you are ready, buy what you can afford, and buy for the long-term. In any market. If you opt out in protest of current prices that is a fine decision too if you are ok renting long-term. If you opt out because you are waiting for a crash, that is way more risk than I’d be comfortable with.

    I do think there is value in closely monitoring a sub-market. Nothing replaces personal knowledge and judgement and if you do this you are much more likely to get a better than average value for your money. Once in a while I also think about writing the exam to get access to data.

  159. This is the reason VRB went to benchmarks

    I don’t mind the benchmarks, but I don’t really like relying on a magic number produced with non-reproducible methodology. I also haven’t seen any question that the HPI answers that the median prices do not. They track each other pretty well.

    I put little stock in BCCA appraisal data myself as it does not actually reflect market value – almost 100% of the time

    They are good at gauging market value in aggregate. When the market was flat the sold price / assessment on average was damn near 100%. But on an individual basis it’s not necessarily accurate.

    What you are noting as newer build good deals are homes which have high BCCA appraisals because their newer build status, even though their neighbour with a 20-year-old fully renovated house may have a very similar market value but an appraisal for 100k less.

    A brand new home will definitely sell for more than a 20 year full reno. The house is still 20 years old.

  160. Richard, you’re from Calgary, aren’t you?

    Anyone ‘brave’ enough today to argue correlation between Calgary home prices and our currency? 🙂

  161. @totoro
    I was simply referring to US assets in general as they’ve all risen enormously alongside the USD (like equities or revenue/vacation properties which are easy enough to margin or finance).

  162. four months of stats should at least provide some guidance.

    Depends on the stat. If you’re using average or median prices, then no, 4 months is not enough. We’ve seen plenty of periods of 4 months where prices went counter to the trend. Didn’t mean a thing except the sales mix happened to produce that outcome in that month.

  163. Another Golden Head’er taking a whacking at 4037 Providence Pl. Slashed $60K for an almost new home in prime GH in the million buck range. How the mighty are falling. 😉

  164. I can appreciate that from a statistical point of view a full year of stats is much more meaningful in judging whether the market has reached a plateau. Waiting for a year before deciding that there is a trend is also of little immediate practical use.

    No one can have a crystal ball but but four months of stats should at least provide some guidance.

    Inventory overall is low but that is not uniform in all neighbourhoods and not across all price points. In south Victoria there is very little inventory in Fairfield and Rockland and almost none in Fernwood. On the other hand there are a fair number of listings both in James Bay and Oak Bay.
    Moreover there are a lot of listings in Uplands particularly compared to how slowly anything is selling. It also appears to me that there is a large number of houses listed at or near the 2 mil and up mark.

  165. JD you should re-read Leo’s post.

    If we get another 4 months of price declines then there is something going on, but so far it’s just that much noise. It’s human nature to spot patterns in noise, and so we glom onto these things when we see them.

    There are a few things missing from your analysis:

    what areas are in/excluded;
    sfh or all sales;
    if April sales are down 46% from April 2016 how much is inventory down from April 2016?

    If you believe BC assessment is accurate enough to evaluate good deals you should also likely collect this data and find the median assessed value to correct the significant skewing effect of using monthly medians as very few high or low end sales will affect the median. This is the reason VRB went to benchmarks, although that has its own issues, and the reason Leo is suggesting monthly data is unreliable when attempting to predict a market pattern.

    Maybe this is a market top, maybe not. It seems unlikely given inventory levels, but it is too early to tell.

    And as far as the good deals go, I put little stock in BCCA appraisal data myself as it does not actually reflect market value – almost 100% of the time – and does not accurately account for things like renovations. What you are noting as newer build good deals are homes which have high BCCA appraisals because their newer build status, even though their neighbour with a 20-year-old fully renovated house may have a very similar market value but an appraisal for 100k less.

    imagine if you were smart enough to buy US five years ago…Up to ~200% gains for real property

    People have done well and this is an interesting point but US properties are hard to finance so you would probably have paid cash or used a HELOC likely, and paid tax on the proceeds. In Victoria if you put 20% down five years ago on a primary residence you’d have made approx. 250-300% tax exempt on your money selling today, more if you put less than 20% with no complicated income tax issues. In most cases you would have been better off buying a more expensive house here than a second house in the US imo despite the exchange rate and appreciation.

  166. Barrister;
    “higher end homes” may have been the wrong turn of phrase. I didn’t mean to imply mansions as a reference. Oak Bay is one of the areas that I definitely was referring to and it really has not so much to do with size of homes but general community layout and neighbourhood ambiance and for lack of word “style” which makes the community expensive. I confess it is difficult to describe but when you physically drive through the neighborhood one senses the difference/uniqueness.

  167. Richard:
    exactly what cities are you comparing Victoria with?I am not saying that Victoria does not have a lot of areas with high prices but some of those areas such has Oak Bay are mostly small rather unimposing houses with the occasional exception. Even in Uplands almost half the houses are pretty simple ranchers. There are still some imposing mansions in Rockland but most of those have been subdivided in multiple apartments.

  168. OBSERVATION:
    To a Victorian it probably seems that there is nothing much out of the ordinary in the residential make up of the city. To an outsider visiting the city I find the # of higher end homes as a % of the overall housing stock extroadinary. Whereas most cities have very distinctive higher end areas which typically are hemmed in and relatively small in area when compared to their city size. Victoria’s % of higher end homes is enormous in comparison and stretches into miles of continuous communities. It is absolutely amazing, and makes Victoria completely unique. It is no wonder the city has such great appeal.

  169. The end of April is upon us and time for a look back to see if there were any good deals for buyers.

    Surprisingly one of the better deals this month was for a two year old home in South Oak Bay that sold for 1.5 million. The property had 2,922 finished square feet situated on a 5,280 square feet lot. The improvements alone were assessed for $869,000. That leaves a residual value to the lot at $631,000 or $120 a square foot for land.

    Another good deal for the buyer was in Saanich East in a premium neighborhood along Sage Lane. $1,170,000 bought a 4,500 square foot home on a 10,740 square foot lot. The improvements were assessed at $564,000 leaving a land residual of $606,000 or $56 a square foot for the land.

    Even in Cordava Bay a good deal could easily be found along Oceanwood Lane at $1,000,000 for a 2,200 square foot home on a 10,863 square foot lot. The three year old improvements were estimated at a value of $531,000 making the residual land value $469,000 or $43 a square foot.

    If you have the money, there are still some good deals to be had in the core districts.

    Of course there were also some really bad purchases made too.

    In general what were buyers paying for houses in the core this April? Anywhere between 94 to 170 percent of their government assessed values. The typical or median buyer paying 24% over the properties government assessed value.

    And how does that compare to previous months?

    March 21% over the current assessed value
    February 21% over the current assessed value
    January 23% over the current assessed value

    And that strongly correlates to median prices that have remained flat for the first four months of the year.

    Month Sale Price, Median
    Jan $900,000
    Feb $880,400
    Mar $867,000
    Apr $844,750

    Averaged at $873,000 +/- 3%

    And this flat market is happening during one of low months of inventory, and low sales to new listings, and low days on market during what historically has had some of the highest rates of appreciation in prices over the last decade. Yet so far this year – nothing.

    This April the number of house sales in the core will be the same as in March but down 45% from April 2016. What has happened most often in the past is that the volume of sales will peak in May and then steadily decline for the rest of the year. This year is shaping up to be a year without a Spring Market for houses in the core.

  170. Glad to see that city council voted not to support this tax call for foreign buyers.
    The reality is that foreign buyers purchasing a property in Victoria know full well that the provincial rules might very well change the tax rules overnight and they know they would have to pay the tax even after they had signed the purchasing contract. So…. any foreign buyer who is buying property in Victoria will be factoring in the 15% cost just in case.
    Having said that…… It has yet to be established that foreign buyers in Victoria are a real issue.
    If it is proved to be an issue then the 15% tax should be voted on. Personally I think if foreign ownership is a problem here in Victoria then it needs to be much more of a tax in order to make any difference.

  171. 2378 Cranmore asking $1.2M. I expect this will become one of Hawk’s mark downs from original ask.

  172. Maybe it’s becuase of the “That the “Putting Investors First Month” May, 2017 Proclamation be forwarded to the April 27, 2017 Council meeting for Council’s consideration.”

    After all can’t do anything against investors in the “Putting Investors First Month”

  173. The proposed Foreign Investor Tax was not passed by Victoria City Council last night……with the drop in the CND dollar doesn’t bode well for the market returning to stability anytime soon.

    Of course, there’s a hidden premise in that statement, that is, that foreign cash is having a significant impact on Victoria’s market, and that that impact is only going to increase as or if the dollar drops. I have seen no data that conclusively supports either premise – is there?

    So, my uneducated guess on both counts is no, not really. The global RE buying binge was just that – and Canada only took a small part of it even though there are other countries that have a higher exchange rate for an Asian buyer. As for US buyers – well if you were in the USA, would you be seeking to snap up Canadian RE right now, especially right here? They’ve just been through their very own “it’s different this time”.

    Canada’s overall economy is anaemic, people are over-leveraged and real estate is broadly overvalued. I really don’t believe that Americans are flooding this market much more than they ever were.

    Canadians should largely blame themselves…

  174. The proposed Foreign Investor Tax was not passed by Victoria City Council last night……with the drop in the CND dollar doesn’t bode well for the market returning to stability anytime soon.

  175. Usually is “in the way that most often happens”, which your data does not support.

    how could a strengthening economy and currency

    That was not your premise. Your theory was that when the Canadian dollar is higher house prices go higher. Now you seem to say that a higher dollar is correlated with a stronger economy, which is something different, and not necessarily true when you consider the impact on exports and tourism and manufacturing.

    Then you are not reliant on what the province decides to do?

    They can’t without a provincial amendment to the assessment act, and there are probably other reasons why they can’t too. Right now there are nine classes of property in BC. Foreign-owned is not a separate class. Each class is charged a set mil rate and the municipality does not have the power to create its own classes.

  176. You guys need to google the definition of usually 🙂

    Indeed. And you need to google the definition of “weasel word”. 🙂 🙂

  177. “Prices usually…follow currency” Yeah…. no.

    You guys need to google the definition of usually 🙂

    And what was I thinking. I mean, how could a strengthening economy and currency possibly have a historical correlation to higher home prices. That’s just silly! That’s like saying that $100 oil could lead to a wave of rich Albertan buyers in Victoria, lol.

  178. Has the city considering just tripling the property taxes for foreign owners of residential property.
    Then you are not reliant on what the province decides to do?

  179. The loonie generally correlates with the price of oil which may or may not correlate to state of Canada’s overall economy. The recent collapse in oil prices is due to global supply and not a drop in demand. Outside of Alberta and Northern BC, a drop in the loonie is actually good for the economy as a whole as Canada is a net exporter of goods. Therefore, a drop in the loonie, in conjunction with low interest rates, stimulates the economy and creates upward pressure of house prices.

  180. The Canadian dream just ain’t what they thought it would be. Bummer.

    You Don’t Need to Buy that House

    Canada’s housing market is not the problem. Our fixation on home ownership is

    This reality is beginning to dawn on Canada’s millennial homeowners. According to a recent cibc poll, among those who own homes (the majority of whom bought with help from their parents), more than four out of five plan to sell in the near future. Many said it was because their mortgage was making them cash poor (63 percent), or because rising interest rates could make it hard for them to pay their bills (57 percent). Perhaps most crucially, 36 percent thought of renting as the “better option.”

    https://thewalrus.ca/you-dont-need-to-buy-that-house/

  181. Seeing the loonie on top of your price chart may help light the bulb.

    You have a correlation on the chart between 1980 and 1992. After that, no. Twelve years out of 62 is not a reliable pattern and, more to the point, the last twenty-five years have not borne out your theory in a consistent manner.

    Your data doesn’t make the point you think it does.

  182. “Prices usually…follow currency”

    Yeah…. no. Is that why prices in Canada collapsed 25% between 2012 and 2017 when the loonie declined by that amount?

  183. By the way, you can ignore the 1962-1971 part of the chart that doesn’t correlate well, as the loonie was artificially pegged @ 92.5 cents to the US dollar during that time.

  184. penguin

    I’m curious where all of the 160k per year engineering jobs are because I don’t make anywhere close to that nor do any of my engineering friends. Seriously please tell me!

    Abe Books (aka Amazon) has a Victoria posting on Viatec (and Amazon.. friend at Amazon Seattle forwarded the listing). It’s actually been open since early December (if it’s the same listing). Wage range 108-180K CAD. Less than what the same position would pay in Seattle, but a good wage for Victoria.

    There are definitely still some local companies not with the times. I was talking to an employee at a local company that is trying to hire a firmware dev. There is definitely a divide between what management is willing to pay vs what someone talented in that skill is willing to accept.

    Was also talking to another friend who works for a US company with employees and contractors in Victoria. They are actively hiring (though not listing jobs on any board, they recruit via LinkedIn and referrals). Their wages are competitive.

    I’ve definitely experienced an uptick in people asking for referrals and my availability.

    bearkiller

    It’s pretty easy to get over 100k as a software developer in this town

    I don’t know anyone making below high 80s low 90s base salary. Yeah, a jr that is hired fresh will make less, but good luck getting anyone useful for anything less than that.

    To americans that’s dirt cheap. 80K USD gets you a new grad in the big US cities. 110K CAD gets you someone experienced.

    james soper

    Should almost be able to get a mortgage for a condo in this town with that kind of coin.

    I know that was sarcastic, but it’s a good point. 100K doesn’t go far in this town (it’s barely above median family income). I can’t see buying a house on 100K in this market.

    Of course the stay at home parent is now a rarity so I’d expect 2 incomes. What’s your average gov’t worker with a degree or two making these days? 70-80K? Even if they work part-time that’s 35-40K.

    135K-180K seens enough to support a family and buy a SFH in this market (albeit I haven’t done the math).

  185. Like I said, “Prices usually…follow currency”.

    I’d be curious to see a US equivalent chart.

  186. @totoro
    Seeing the loonie on top of your price chart may help light the bulb.

    Like I said, “Prices usually…follow currency”. One of the best recent examples was our loonie going from 68 to 80 cents between Jan to May last year. Recall how quickly our prices accelerated during that time.

  187. If you align the ~1990 and 2008 peaks in the loonie and RE price, the light bulb should come on for you.

    No light bulb. Maybe I’m missing something?

    Two data points don’t make a reliable pattern if you are ignoring all the other data points – like 2012-2017 in which the dollar fell but prices rose in Canada, or the period you state was a falling market with a dropping dollar between 1994-2001, but RE prices were pretty flat.

    Are you only correlating the dollar with the Victoria market? Also doesn’t seem to match up on many dates such as between 1979-82 where house prices shot up like a rocket in Victoria while the dollar crashed. Plus the past five years I guess.

  188. Local Fool, it crossed my mind but they wouldn’t like what I would have to say. Already lost a couple to the FOMO mantra. They’re on their own now.

    Canada: under-saved, undiversified and unprepared for mean reversion

    Canada enjoyed elevated cash flow during the late, great, global commodity boom 2002-2011. That was then. Cash flow is cyclical, and that cycle is over. Unfortunately, Canada is unprepared for the secular mean reversion that follows secular booms. Thanks to over-confidence and malinvestment in highly inefficient assets like the Alberta tar-sands, egregiously priced real estate and non-productive consumer goods, Canada has now earned an extended rough patch in the payback period.

    https://jugglingdynamite.com/2017/04/26/canada-under-saved-undiversified-and-unprepared-for-mean-reversion/

  189. Let’s say the CDN dollar gets to around or below 65 cents US as it did in the early 2000s. This would probably be near a low point. Anyone foreign who invests at that point can reasonably expect to see our dollar go up from there…

    That’s the fallacy of induction: Because 65 cents was the low last time, 65 cents will be the low next time.

    I guess predictions like that have a 50% chance of being correct: they’re either right or wrong with equal probability.

    Same with all market predictions, really. The market always go either up or down, it’s just deciding which is the tricky part.

    And if the C$ only drops to 66 cents, our smart foreign investor will lose out on the chance to make a fortune at our expense, because he’ll still be waiting for the 65 cent investment signal, when the loonie returns to parity or better with the greenback.

  190. Are there tax implications when a non-resident wants to sell property in Canada? There’s so much talk about a possible foreign tax being imposed when a property is bought, but how about when they want to sell?

  191. I don’t think it matters. It only matters what people believe. The message is just the carrot needed to direct behavior.

    Just like everyone says it’s a racist Chinese head tax when the most affected people would be Americans.

  192. “This article says foreign buyers here went from 3% to 10% since Aug. 2016? But that’s not what other data has showed. So, I’m a bit confused about that. What is the real % of foreign buyers?”

    I don’t think it matters. It only matters what people believe. The message is just the carrot needed to direct behavior.

  193. This article says foreign buyers here went from 3% to 10% since Aug. 2016? But that’s not what other data has showed. So, I’m a bit confused about that. What is the real % of foreign buyers?

    It never went to 10%.. However I believe they are referring to percentage of sales volume, which I haven’t checked if it hit 10%

  194. “Anything that can be automated in software is automated already, developers are lazy and would rather automate than do anything repeatedly.”

    Agree James – robots will only take over software development when intelligent machines have enslaved humanity, in about 1,000 years 🙂

    Luke, totally agree: “This isn’t about helping me gain more equity as a home owner in OB … this about what is good for our society as a whole. I don’t want to see numerous empty houses here.”

    For suites, I’ve noticed a change in the last 2 years of how open people are in OB with suites now – you used to only see hot plates. A realtor explained it’s because OB is considering legalizing suites and a decision is expected in the next year or so.

  195. Hawk, if and when this RE market deflates, you should find a side-job counseling people and families that are encumbered with excessive debt. I think you’d have a rather unique approach.

    I already have at least two clients for you.

  196. They do! Just not with stoves…

    There’s a ton of basement suites/accessory suites in my more ‘working class’ part of OB (Henderson/Estevan). That’s the same for other parts – I’d imagine in Uplands you’ll even find a few suites if you really looked. Apparently, suites are perfectly legal in OB as long as they don’t have stoves. But, I’ve encountered confusion over the issue. However, I know for a fact there are many suites in OB. How many listings in OB do we constantly see w/ suites w/ stoves, and they don’t fear to hide the fact… and just walking around my ‘hood, I’m seeing it all the time.

  197. It’s pretty easy to get over 100k as a software developer in this town

    Should almost be able to get a mortgage for a condo in this town with that kind of coin.

  198. I dunno. You really think it’s a good idea to pay a 15% tax to invest in assets of a country with a falling currency, and where everyone says the asset market you’re thinking of buying into is in a bubble?

    My point being if they buy in when our currency nears the bottom. Let’s say the CDN dollar gets to around or below 65 cents US as it did in the early 2000s. This would probably be near a low point. Anyone foreign who invests at that point can reasonably expect to see our dollar go up from there, and hence – their investment to go up. As for the 15% tax – we don’t have it yet in Victoria. Also, how many are saying Victoria is a bubble yet? I’d say TO is very likely a bubble, but I’m not sure Vancouver is as we’ve not seen prices drop there much since last year. Victoria, again – lack of supply and land compared to TO and prices haven’t yet gone as stratospheric here as they did in TO.

    http://www.bnn.ca/victoria-needs-to-even-the-playing-field-with-a-foreign-buyer-tax-mayor-1.734195

    This article says foreign buyers here went from 3% to 10% since Aug. 2016? But that’s not what other data has showed. So, I’m a bit confused about that. What is the real % of foreign buyers?

  199. We don’t have any basement suites here though, so it wouldn’t work for you.

    They do! Just not with stoves… 😀

  200. The max leverage Uplands life style must be keeping you up at night.

    Nothing keeps me up at night. My neighbourhood is quiet, peaceful, and decidedly non-leveraged.

    We don’t have any basement suites here though, so it wouldn’t work for you.

  201. AG, you seem to have a problem with reality. The max leverage Uplands life style must be keeping you up at night.

    Home Captial/Equitable (tanking again today 13%) bundled loans to sucker investors. Large Canadian syndicated mortgage companies getting sued for $127 million. Who woulda thought Canada would be as unscrupulous as the US.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgqG3ITMv1Q

  202. If you align the real estate price chart with the credit lending chart you can see why this is about to puke all over the place. Max leverage = Peak real estate.

  203. I don’t see a correlation between that chart and Canadian RE prices.

    If you align the ~1990 and 2008 peaks in the loonie and RE price, the light bulb should come on for you.

  204. Automating 90% of software coding may happen almost as quickly.

    hahaha, as someone who works in the industry, good luck with that.
    Squarespace and WordPress were supposed to get rid of the need for developers because you can do it yourself. Instead you get squarespace and wordpress developers. There’s a big subset of people who just don’t know how computers work, and automating things isn’t going to change that.

    Anything that can be automated in software is automated already, developers are lazy and would rather automate than do anything repeatedly.

  205. It’s pretty easy to get over 100k as a software developer in this town. I don’t understand how people can even think this is unreasonable. I’ve been making over that for almost a decade. Amazon is hiring in Vancouver right now and they pay much higher wages. So Penguin if you could handle Vancouver maybe that’s for you.

  206. @Richard

    the devaluation of the $C is a major contributor to the rapidly rising cost of real estate

    Prices usually do the opposite and follow currency. If the loonie’s doing well, the economy is usually doing well. Also makes sense with foreign buyers, preferring to buy into an appreciating currency.

    1994-2001 the loonie fell from 73 to 63 cents as did Vic RE.
    2001-2008 the loonie soared along with RE.

    2016 (Jan-May) the loonie jumped from 68 to 80 as prices soared.

  207. About the local tech industry lack of employees problem, it sounds to me like the industry is now up against a wall as far as growth goes.

    If you want to expand and can’t, then you have to turn down lucrative contracts due to lack of brainiacs to pull off these new tech programs/concepts etc.

    So what happens next ? Isn’t this when companies begin to lose business and run higher risk of going under as they can’t keep up to the new and changing market demands or they tread water at best ? Lots of possibilities here and most don’t sound growth orientated.

  208. Cs
    “The value of the loonie affects RE only inasmuch as it may attract foreign investment.”
    Wrong, Cs, not only does the falling loonie attract foreign investment it also adds a significant cost to new construction. Other than your lumber, concrete and labour most of the rest is imported.

  209. Another Golden Head’er at 1850 El Sereno Dr. is on it’s third price slash total of about $80K lost in fantasy money. They still don’t get the lucky 8’s are coming up snake eyes. Maybe try some 7’s. 😉

  210. I don’t think the tech sector will save Victoria’s absurdly inflated property market for long. Robots will soon be picking Washington State’s apple crop.

    So… more tech jobs then? Someone has to design, build, and maintain the robots. And i don’t think that fruit-pickers were buying up lots of property anyway 🙂

  211. Few more price slashes this morning. A couple of interesting ones down in the Gorge area where others here were promoting. One starter home at 332 Vincent has been slashed $60K to $489K from $549K. Goes to show the first timer and the investors are starting to balk when a month ago they would be gone in a heartbeat.

  212. I don’t think the tech sector will save Victoria’s absurdly inflated property market for long. Robots will soon be picking Washington State’s apple crop. The machines will pick 90% of the fruit, the remainder will be picked by humans. Automating 90% of software coding may happen almost as quickly. Then we’ll have nothing much to do in Victoria except build houses for one another. Meantime the US economy continues to slow as President Trump transforms from nationalist to globalist and best friend of China, where they make all that cool stuff we buy off Amazon or from Walmart — things like shoes and shirts, and furniture, and plastic buckets and garden hoses that we used to make for ourselves. I even bought some cup soup that was made in China — it included a folding spoon, which I thought was cool.

  213. @Luke:

    “My thoughts are… our plummeting CDN currency could make our RE more appealing to foreign investors moving forward. The 15% tax won’t be enough to stop them…”

    I dunno. You really think it’s a good idea to pay a 15% tax to invest in assets of a country with a falling currency, and where everyone says the asset market you’re thinking of buying into is in a bubble?

  214. @ 3Richard Haysom:

    “I pointed out some comments back that the devaluation of the $C is a major contributor to the rapidly rising cost of real estate.”

    The value of the loonie affects RE only inasmuch as it may attract foreign investment. However, investing in RE of a country with a falling currency and a property bubble won’t pay off too well if the currency continues to fall and the RE bubble bursts.

    For most Canadians, the fall in the local currency makes no difference as their savings and income are denominated in C$.

  215. Thanks LUKE:

    I pointed out some comments back that the devaluation of the $C is a major contributor to the rapidly rising cost of real estate and that by August it may well be in the 69cents range further escalating the issue. Meanwhile all forms of Government across the country are enacting all sorts of measures to curb rising house prices but ignore the effects of the $C.

    The following excerpt from “International Man” is an excellent example of what Americans are being counciled by financial experts into owning foreign RE,

    “4. Privacy and Tax Benefits
    Owning foreign real estate is one of the very few ways that Americans can legally keep some of their wealth abroad while retaining their financial privacy. If the foreign real estate is held directly in your name (i.e., not in a trust, LLC, real estate fund, partnership, etc.) it is not reportable (although any rental income must be reported). Additionally, certain expenses related to searching for, purchasing, and maintaining foreign real estate are tax deductible for Americans. As always, be sure to consult your tax professional.

    Of course there are downsides to investing in foreign real estate, including the amount of paperwork usually required, its illiquidity, carrying costs, and country/market specific risks, among others. However, when those risks are weighed with the benefits above, it should be clear that owning foreign real estate is one of the best ways you can diversify your political risk.”

    Interesting how “political risk” is highlighted and currently this couldn’t be more acute for many US citizens and by the way Canada is one of the countrys mentioned for investment.

  216. 1620 Chandler sold for $1,205k which was $56k over list price. Nothing really special about it, except it was on a big lot.

  217. The expensive overvalued currency and benchmark will drive money to Canada’s real estate market. Property is both currency and investment. Buy Canadian CAD$ low, sell high! Our exchange rate makes us a cheap bet!

    My thoughts are… our plummeting CDN currency could make our RE more appealing to foreign investors moving forward. The 15% tax won’t be enough to stop them actually, even if it is implemented here in Victoria, esp. if our currency plunges much more further. Vancouver will turn in favour of the Chinese once again (if not already), just like Hong Kong did before they had to double the tax to 30% there (and now once again they are investing in HK, but largely b/c the Chinese are finding new loopholes there to get around the taxes, since the HK dollar is pegged to the US dollar) They will and are finding loop holes here as well.

    I expect to see the CDN dollar trading in the US 60’s cent range soon. This will make us more attractive to investment from foreigner’s, as esp. when our dollar nears a low point, and it will, they will expect it to then turn around and help their new investment even more! This is why I think it even more important to actually implement full restrictions on foreign buyers of property in Canada who are not resident here, and not just taxes. (much like Denmark and Switzerland already have) before it becomes more of a problem here for those who live/work here.

    Houses are meant to be lived in and not an investment commodity like potash/gold/etc. This isn’t about helping me gain more equity as a home owner in OB (Chrusty was all about this in the debate) – this about what is good for our society as a whole. I don’t want to see numerous empty houses here.

    Thanks to all for all the bamboo advice – the guy on Interurban knows his stuff though, and there’s no ‘Japanese knotweed’ there (yes I’m aware it’s a big problem in England – being a Japanese plant and not native there, much like ‘Scotch broom’ is a huge problem here).

  218. GlassDoor seems to be a good site for searching typical salaries?

    eg., average software engineer in Vancouver makes $72k per year
    https://www.glassdoor.ca/Salaries/vancouver-software-engineer-salary-SRCH_IL.0,9_IM972_KO10,27.htm

    If you’re surprised that an engineer might make $70k per year, then you probably don’t work in tech around here 🙂 You can also find as much as $110k or $120k in Van – but it’s complicated. It depends on the size of the company, your experience, if you manage a team, and also benefits like stock options that can add a good % to base income.

    If I had to guess at what a help desk technician at Best Buy makes, they probably make half an engineer’s starting wage – that’s a wild guess though.

  219. Bearkilla I think it is obvious you don’t make 900 per hour haha. Like you would be reading this blog if you did…. I’m curious where all of the 160k per year engineering jobs are because I don’t make anywhere close to that nor do any of my engineering friends. Seriously please tell me!

  220. I find stats on the tech sector rather dubious at best. The definition as to who is included varies widely. Average salaries is also of limited value in that they often include large numbers of support staff.

    Is the kid who fixes your computer at Best Buy really in the tech sector?

  221. Over the last quarter the number of properties listed in the Uplands has more than doubled while there has only been a few sales.All of the properties are marketed at over two million but my impression is that sales are very slow.

    At the moment there are eleven homes on the market but they seem to be selling at the rate of one a month. Perhaps the pace of sales will increase in the next two months but if the present trend continues we seem to have more than six months of inventory.

    The Uplands might be too small a market to have MOI as a useful tools but my impression is that there is a definite slowdown happening.

  222. Days on market and MOI always increases from May through January so that’s not surprising.

    I’ll make it more evident then. The MOI and DOM will increase at a faster rate than historic seasonal norms as we move away from a market shortage of houses in the core. For example during the period of 2002 to mid 2008 or mid 2009 to mid 2010.

    We are currently a little over 12 months into the extreme shortage period of under 2 months of inventory. When we get over 3 months of inventory of houses in the core then we may start to see some relief in prices.

    Of course external shocks can change things very quickly. The Oil recession in Alberta was unexpected and maybe a new provincial government this year. The Donald rattling his flaccid saber. A new NAFTA agreement?

  223. That’s hilarious. Are there actual engineers making that little money? That’s crazy. I made 60K in my first job out of school. No I’m talking like 160k CAD for a developer. With experience obviously something like 5-10 years kind of deal.

  224. @ Bearkilla:

    “They’ve got like 400 openings right now and are paying US wages in Vancouver.”

    Paying US wages in Canadian dollars? Which would be $64 to $89 K? That seems hardly sufficient to buy in even knob and tube original on a 33 foot lot.

  225. @ Shawn C Mann
    “The expensive overvalued currency and benchmark will drive money to Canada’s real estate market. ”

    Might prove to be a case of buying with cheap loonies and selling for even cheaper loonies in the falling market Victoria has now apparently become: a market that may fall at an accelerating pace as it occurs to nearly everyone that “living without regrets,” apparently the slogan of the BC realtors, means waiting for the trough in, perhaps, two years time. Meantime, the NDP are promising, if elected, to increase taxes and eliminate the present government’s market-propping cheap loans for suckers, I mean first-time buyers — Not good signs for RE.

  226. Clearly I was joking about the $900 dollars an hour lol. I’m on salary so I only make about ~120k a year but there’s stock options so it’s OK. We can’t even find some people we’re looking for in Victoria and we’re 100% remote and pretty much willing to take anyone in Canada at this point. It’s grim out there for tech talent. The Amazon hiring boom in Vancouver is sucking a lot of people out of town too. They’ve got like 400 openings right now and are paying US wages in Vancouver.

  227. Grew up in Atherton California during the 60s & 70s watching hyper realty prices from 66 to 79. Higher interest rates hardly slowed pockets as acres hit 3 million by tbe 90s and McMansions of the Silicon Valley crowd drove prices into the stratosphere. Unfortunately, I predict prices increasing significantly as the USD$ strength drives down US exports.
    The expensive overvalued currency and benchmark will drive money to Canada’s real estate market. Property is both currency and investment. Buy Canadian CAD$ low, sell high! Our exchange rate makes us a cheap bet!

  228. Way to miss the point. Where did I say right to own?

    Well pardon me if my hyperbolic concept “right to own” can’t be subsumed under your very specific “lack of options for young people.”

  229. @ Intro:

    “Should young people’s hopes realistically extend to traveling back in time to be able to afford a house in the core of Victoria?”

    It’s not just young people whose hopes are blighted by ridiculously high house prices in this rather small and chilly town. It’s the brain surgeon, the cardiologist, the self-employed guy making a coupla hundred thousand a year by working 90 hours a week, the kind of people who used to live in the Uplands, and even in waterfront mansions, who now find themselves shut out of the market for the best property in town.

    Look at this: eight million, seven million, six million, six million. It really sucks, being a rich Victorian, and all because of dopey crooks and loonie investors who can’t tell the difference between Victoria and Manhattan Island.

  230. It can, you’d just have to GTFO

    Not going to happen. Only crown land and those lands sold by a willing seller will ever be on the table as far as I can tell. Otherwise it is compensation of a different sort. Watch out for machetes and JD and his dog and you’ll be fine.

    Star Wars is only surpassed by Lord of the Rings imo. I do see some similarities there as well, minus the crystal ball.

  231. Looks like the age of Hawk has dawned.

    The core is severely distorted by what is happening at the top end, with houses in the Uplands being flipped with a markup of 100% or more, suggestive of ill-informed out of town or foreign buyers making dumb investments they will soon regret. If the data were stratified by price, we’d probably see quite different trends at the top versus the middle and bottom of the market.

  232. Months are arbitrary. It is the size of the data that is important. During the winter months there are fewer house sales which makes the size of the error larger in each month. Thus, there is more variability due to the smaller sample size.

    Yes good point. Easier to pull the data by month than by sales.

    Using 12 months of data would be fine for detecting changes in ocean temperatures over a century but not much use in determining real estate trends.

    I don’t agree at all. The 12 month measure is actually quite sensitive. It will indicate small changes in YoY slowdown or acceleration immediately by the change in its slope.

    That’s how I spotted the trend that the market prices and sale volumes (accounting for seasonality) for houses in the core had peaked but the adjoining areas and alternative properties had had both an increase in sales and prices.

    I do not believe SFH prices in the core have peaked but we’ll see.

    What that means for the future is the months of inventory and the average days-on-market will trend higher over the next few months

    Days on market and MOI always increases from May through January so that’s not surprising.

  233. Rent. Or move somewhere else. There is no “guaranteed right to own in Victoria,” just as there is no “guaranteed right to own a new BMW.” There are always other options.

    Way to miss the point. Where did I say right to own?

  234. Some of the land cannot realistically be returned to Indigenous peoples

    It can, you’d just have to GTFO

  235. Who says prices aren’t allowed to go down Intorovert? It’s called a market for a reason which functions in both directions not just one way only, nor because you got in first. Aholes like you find that out the hard way.

  236. Look at places where hope for young people is low and you see it immediately.

    Victoria has the lowest unemployment of any city in Canada. Young people have hope of finding a job.

    Should young people’s hopes realistically extend to traveling back in time to be able to afford a house in the core of Victoria?

  237. Months are arbitrary. It is the size of the data that is important. During the winter months there are fewer house sales which makes the size of the error larger in each month. Thus, there is more variability due to the smaller sample size.

    You can use 12 months of data and look at the year to year change but that doesn’t help you spot month to month, quarter to quarter or 6 month trends that occur quickly over a couple of months. Using 12 months of data would be fine for detecting changes in ocean temperatures over a century but not much use in determining real estate trends.

    To spot trends in real estate one would have to zoom in to the condo or detached markets in the core and/or outlying areas and analyze how they these markets are changing relative to each other. That’s how I spotted the trend that the market prices and sale volumes (accounting for seasonality) for houses in the core had peaked but the adjoining areas and alternative properties had had both an increase in sales and prices. In otherwords house buyers in the core have been switching to buying condos in the core and houses in the western communities as they were out priced in core houses.

    What that means for the future is the months of inventory and the average days-on-market will trend higher over the next few months bringing increased stability to prices, fewer successful bidding wars, and greater selection in houses for sale in the core.

    I think some of the buyers in the last few months are going to find that they made a bad purchase as they were caught up in the emotion of the auctions.

    You would never see that change in buyers preferences if you just looked at 12 months of data.

  238. I’m being offered flood insurance with my home insurance. Does anyone purchase this? Are we at risk of freshwater floods on the island or public drains backing up?

    Look at your landscaping and the topography of your neighborhood. Are there any streams or lakes nearby that have or may break their banks. A lot of municipalities have studies on their flood plains, including the extents of your 200 year flood level.

    With some vision and maybe a bit of Googling/reading your can find out if you need this premium.

    Does it cover any of the side effects of flood such as landslides, washouts, utilities interruptions, and would they affect you?

    It may be a complete waste of money, just like if you were to pay for sewer backup protection for your 4th floor condo.

  239. Dark hole gwac ? It’s the facts of housing bubbles just like when the US blew up via the same bundled sub prime mortgages and sold to sucker investors like yourself . Your denial of facts is astounding.

    With your wimpy comebacks between you, AG and Intorovert I’m not sure which one is more scared shitless this is about to come apart at the seams.

    All the stars are in alignment. Just like gwac had when he got in 1990 but this will be far worse.

  240. M
    Overland flood insurance and sewer backup insurance are two different things. You need to be sure if your provider is offering both together or individually. If you had to choose between one or the other I would choose sewer backup.

  241. @Deb

    Yes it is overland flood insurance. Yeah I guess it would be most useful in public drain backups. Thanks for the info.

  242. @M re: flood insurance
    Are you sure it is overland flood insurance you are being offered? It is fairly new in Canada, most places flooded in the Alberta flood back in 2013 were not covered.

    “Know Your Coverage: As with all types of coverage, it is important to fully understand both what is covered and what is not. Overland water insurance covers damage from fresh water sources. Overland water insurance does not accept claims where flood damage is the result of a saltwater source such as coastal flooding and tsunamis. Dam breaks are also specifically designated as uncovered occurrences.”

    https://park.ca/blog/2016/07/20/flood-insurance-now-available-canada/

    I had to submit a claim for a sewage backup but it was only paid because the company re-lining the sewers in James Bay had accidentally blocked my sewage line. It was actually their insurance that paid out not mine, mine said it wouldn’t be covered. Never did figure out why, we thought we were covered.

  243. Yeah its been recent that BC has started offering flood insurance. Many insurance companies aren’t offering it. It will about about $85 to my premium.

  244. M

    Never knew they had it. Must be something new. After Calgary?

    Earthquake could create flooding issues. Apart from that and some isolated main breaks in Saanich and Oakbay in recent memory that did a lot of damage to a few houses. Not sure if the cities covered it. There are really no fresh water issue in the Victoria area with all the rain we get.

    Its a personal thing based on cost and where you live I guess.

  245. “Introvert – the snowflakes don’t want to hear that”

    Forget Knotweed these snowflakes are the real issue these days. 🙂

  246. (Also from the previous thread:)

    I also find it odd how someone so concerned with indigenous land rights takes so much pleasure in his/her own personal postage stamp of stolen land.

    I am not without my contradictions.

    Some of the land cannot realistically be returned to Indigenous peoples; however, there are ways governments could reconcile with and compensate Indigenous peoples going forward, and I would be the first to support such a breakthrough.

  247. Rent. Or move somewhere else. There is no “guaranteed right to own in Victoria,” just as there is no “guaranteed right to own a new BMW.” There are always other options.

    Introvert – the snowflakes don’t want to hear that.

  248. I’m being offered flood insurance with my home insurance. Does anyone purchase this? Are we at risk of freshwater floods on the island or public drains backing up?

  249. (From the previous thread:)

    @Introvert The observation that growing income inequality and lack of options for young people leads to unrest and violence is actually a good one. Look at places where hope for young people is low and you see it immediately. We should all be interested in making sure young people have good housing options.

    Rent. Or move somewhere else. There is no “guaranteed right to own in Victoria,” just as there is no “guaranteed right to own a new BMW.” There are always other options.

  250. Wholly shit hawk your world is a dark place. Enjoy that black hole of yours.

    Hawk= the Dark Lord of the Sith
    Wolf = his apprentice, Darth Maul
    Gwac = Obi-Wan Kenobi
    Totoro = Princess Leia
    Leo S = Yoda
    James Soper = Jabba the Hutt

    Anakin Skywalker has yet to reveal himself. We’re looking for someone who is strong in the force, bullish on Victoria real estate, but who is then seduced by the dark side and the cruel temptations of Hawk. Any heavy breathers here?

  251. We had Japanese knotweed on one of our rentals. The city will come and spray it off for you with Roundup. They don’t want it spreading either!

  252. Agreed with Deb re: bamboo. It can be an absolute mess if you don’t get just the right kind. And your neighbours who will also eventually have it pop up in their yards will resent you for it, too!

    and under no circumstances plant knotweed which bears a superficial resemblance to bamboo and is occasionally sold as “American bamboo”. My dad had a tenant plant this. Caught it early but still required an excavator, ground cover with tarps and 3 or 4 years of cutting down shoots that somehow made it through or around the tarp.

    http://bcinvasives.ca/invasive-species/identify/invasive-plants/knotweed

    In England you apparently can’t get a mortgage if it is growing on the property.
    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2012/sep/08/japanese-knotweed-house-sale

  253. “The underlying loans are preforming well.

    Everything performs well in a rising market. Very bad way to guage how it will perform in a declining one.”

    Agreed LeoS, as per my mention of Concordia, Valeant etc. All the double speak in the beginning that it’s just a few bad apples is so typical.

    The banks haven’t dug into who owns those loans/mortgages. Half may not qualify for renewal, or more could be found to be fraudulent and have to be called in and banks will refuse to take them on.

    Look at the MIC’s they bundled to pass off as legit to bypass the government lending rules. These lenders are scum.

    INSIGHT-Bundles of debt: how lenders sidestep Canada’s mortgage rules

    Bundled mortgages enable borrowers to take on more debt
    Main lender pairs with unregulated lender
    Practice can circumvent Canada’s new mortgage rules
    Home Trust, Equitable participate in bundles
    Brookstreet, Sinclair Cockburn MICs participate

    TORONTO, Jan 11 (Reuters) – Canada’s subprime mortgage providers are increasingly teaming up with unregulated rivals to sidestep rules designed to clamp down on risky lending.

    The result of these partnerships are so-called “bundled” loans, which pair a primary mortgage with a second loan from unregulated groups called Mortgage Investment Corporations (MICs).

    The arrangements have proliferated, mortgage brokers told Reuters, as Canadian regulators have tightened lending standards to shield borrowers in case a decade-long housing boom goes bust.

    The practice has grown fast because it allows borrowers to make down payments of just 10 percent, dodging federal rules that require either 20 or 35 percent down on mortgages not backed by government insurance, according to industry experts. Packaging two loans together allows the regulated lender to skirt those rules.

    “This is what happens at the late stage of a housing bubble – the quality of lending goes down,” he said.

    https://ca.investing.com/news/economy-news/insight-bundles-of-debt:-how-lenders-sidestep-canada's-mortgage-rules-110027

  254. Agreed with Deb re: bamboo. It can be an absolute mess if you don’t get just the right kind. And your neighbours who will also eventually have it pop up in their yards will resent you for it, too!

  255. Leo

    The loans will be stressed tested to any potential buyer. Since the company most likely will not survive and its trading at $8 dollars a share. The market see some sort of value on the book in the present market conditions.

  256. The underlying loans are preforming well.

    Everything performs well in a rising market. Very bad way to guage how it will perform in a declining one.

  257. Hawk the company is done. Its model no longer functions. No cheap cash. The company or book will be sold. The underlying loans are preforming well.

  258. About Home Capitals lending deal. This shows the risk level is extreme.

    “So, if Home Capital were to borrow $1 billion for the entire 364 day period, the total cost would be approximately $225 million (an effective interest rate of 22.5%). If all $2 billion is required, the total cost jumps to $300 million. For a company with a current market cap of $450 million (CAD), this level of interest expense is staggering.”

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4066287-home-capital-group-details-emergency-line-credit

  259. If you believe anything Home Capital says and those invested heavily then I got that bridge to sell you. Concordia ( from over $100 to $1.70), Valeant and all the other Canadian scams said the same thing in the beginning.

    We all know mortgage fraud is rampant from coast to coast but don’t want to admit it publically. The denials are always the loudest at first, just like Bear Sterns and Lehman etc. The wheels are falling off this bubble and is long overdue.

  260. @Luke
    Just thought I would mention something I am sure you already know. When it comes to bamboo make sure you get the clumping variety. Other types will drive you round the bend spreading 3′ to 5′ a year via root shoots that are hardy enough to come up through any space between flag stones. This coming from someone who made the mistake years ago and is still paying for it! http://www.bamboogarden.com/FAQ%20general.htm

  261. Hawk I will let you know when and if I decide to buy the lot. It is not an investment but a retirement place to build. The factors to buy have nothing to do with the market but my future plans.

  262. Company shares recovering today.

    http://business.financialpost.com/investing/home-capital-shares-inch-up-as-it-secures-firm-commitment-for-2-billion-line-of-credit

    The combination of rapid deposit redemptions and the now elevated cost to replace said deposits has caused us to change how we view the world of alternative mortgage lending
    .
    Equitable Group shares were down 31.65 per cent to $40.75, Genworth MI Canada shares were down 7.87 per cent to $33.12, and Street Capital Group shares were down 9.77 per cent to $1.20.

    These companies’ shares rebounded on Thursday, with Equitable up as much as 14.3 per cent to $46.50 and Genworth up as much as 4.3 per cent to $34.45. Street Capital gained slightly, up as much as 2.5 per cent to $1.23 on Thursday.

    “The combination of rapid deposit redemptions and the now elevated cost to replace said deposits has caused us to change how we view the world of alternative mortgage lending,” said Jaeme Gloyn, an analyst at National Bank of Canada Financial Markets in a note to clients on Thursday. “As a result, we are downgrading Equitable Group to Underperform from Outperform and Street Capital Group to Sector Perform from Outperform.”

    The market reaction prompted Genworth Canada to issue a statement Wednesday to clarify its exposure to Home Capital originated mortgages. As of March 31, 2017, Home Capital originated mortgages represent approximately 1 per cent of Genworth Canada’s overall business, the company said.

    “At present, our delinquency rate with respect to Home Capital originated mortgages is less than our overall business delinquency rate of 0.21 per cent as at December 31, 2016,” it said in a statement. “Genworth Canada continues to apply its rigorous underwriting standards to all mortgage insurance applications and maintains a high quality insurance portfolio.”

    Concerns over Home Capital ignited after the Ontario Securities Commission filed a statement of allegations and notice of hearing against the company; founder and former chief executive Gerald Soloway; chief financial officer Robert Morton; and former president and chief executive Martin Reid. Earlier this week, Home Capital announced an executive and board shuffle in an effort to reassure investors after the regulator accused the mortgage lender of misleading disclosure.

    The allegations relate to Home Capital’s disclosure following the discovery that some loan applications contained falsified income information, after which the company cut ties with dozens of brokers in 2014.

    None of the allegations have been proven, and Home Capital’s chairman of the board Kevin Smith has said the company will “continue to vigorously defend our approach to disclosure” in the OSC proceeding, to be held May 4

  263. You know nothing about me gwac, quit making up shit. Put your money where your mouth is and go buy that lot today.

    National Bank just downgraded Equitable from $77 to $39. Looks like contagion to me. As they say, there’s never just one cockroach in the kitchen.

  264. Well time will tell Hawk. We are going through an orderly cleansing at this time. If this spreads to substantially lower home prices than we have a big issue and the shit will hit the fan. I am not there yet. You Hawk have been there for 10 years.

    Home Capital cannot survive paying those interest rates. They need cheaper financing or being sold. They will be sold.

  265. gwac,

    ICYMI lenders like those kept your bubble bloated for the uninsured who can’t qualify for the last decade. The remainder of them will be tightening the screws and will be under the same scrutinization and watch the sales collapse as the sheep can’t qualify.

    They will all get painted with the same brush as Home lied for over 2 years they were allowing fraud to take place. If you can’t see this is a major catalyst to trust in the market place to investors in these mortgage companies are pulling their cash out in droves then you’re stupider than I thought.

    Where there’s smoke there’s fire.

    “Wednesday night, DBRS Ltd. downgraded the firm’s debt to junk status from investment grade citing “heightened pressure on Home Trust Company’s funding and liquidity profile”.”

  266. Hawk

    Your facts have been wrong for 10 years dude. Maybe you should read better facts.

    Home Capital situation is under control and represents a very small % of the mortgage market. They will be sold soon to a more liquid player.

  267. “Here is the facts hawk. Something you have a hard time with. The loans are fine.”

    Oh yeah, that’s why the new lenders are charging 22%. That’s not “fine”, that’s signs of something major.

  268. Miss this part too gwac ? Your an ANALyst too right ?

    Could the problems there spread?

    Analysts are worried that it could, and the resulting hit to the share prices of other alternative lenders on Wednesday indicates that investors are concerned too. “Based on Wednesday’s market action, we believe the issues at HCG may be spreading into the broader broker GIC and alternative mortgage markets,” said Stephen Boland, an analyst with GMP Securities, in a note on Thursday.

  269. Voices ? I read facts, you hold on to fantasy like you must have done in 2007 too. Note the word “contagion”.

    “Home Capital contagion has spread to the entire mortgage market, in particular alternative mortgage lenders,” said Jaeme Gloyn, an analyst at National Bank of Canada Financial Markets, in a note downgrading Equitable Group and Street Capital Group on Thursday. “Our channel checks suggest EQB’s deposit-gathering capabilities will be impaired.”

  270. Here is the facts hawk. Something you have a hard time with. The loans are fine.

    http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/what-exactly-is-home-capital-and-why-is-it-so-important-to-the-mortgage-industry

    Why did Home Capital’s shares plunge on Wednesday?

    Investors were worried about the company’s ability to have enough funding to keep lending mortgages. Home Capital’s announcement Wednesday that it needed to sign a $2 billion loan facility to help mitigate the impact of a nearly $600 million drop in high interest savings account deposits at Home Trust triggered Wednesday’s share collapse, sending the stock down as much as 64.9 per cent to $6. It was a partial run on their funding — Home Trust’s demand deposits, as well as fixed deposits such as GICs, help fund the company’s mortgage lending. The drop in deposits and the expensive credit line were the latest stumbling blocks for Home Capital and have damaged investor confidence in the company’s long-term viability.

    What started the crisis?

  271. “Equitable takes a massive hit worth multi millions. Wake the fuck up dude, the mortgage bomb is blowing up.”

    The only thing blowing up is the voices in your head hawk.

  272. Hawk

    Home capital is not junk the loans are fine. Its the $ that support the loans that is the issue. People are pulling out $ out the High interest earning accounts and not renewing GIC. Their is a run due to the bad publicity. That is the issue right now. Relax and have a brandy and stare out at your brick wall. That is your view for the long haul.

  273. “Wait, the CEO of the pension plan that ‘bailed out’ HC is on the Home Capital Board? Omg, that’s… cozy.”

    How many shares did the pension plan short too ? This is Lehman Bro’s Canadian style. Gwac is the minister of misinformation, lol.

  274. “Hawk better sign a new lease on your room. Nothing is crashing.”

    You’re hilarious gwac, standing in front of a train screaming “there is no train! “. LOL

    Home Capital is JUNK, did you miss that part ? The banks are picking off what viable chunks of the carcass is left before it goes tits up. Equitable takes a massive hit worth multi millions. Wake the fuck up dude, the mortgage bomb is blowing up.

  275. Wait, the CEO of the pension plan that ‘bailed out’ HC is on the Home Capital Board? Omg, that’s… cozy.

  276. 1317 Point St in Fairfield. 1912 build. Sold $160k over asking at $1,410k. Peek a boo ocean view and steps to Dallas Rd. But, hippy commune/rooming house next door (some interesting characters there – hopefully you like reggae music… I do). Tiny lot – only 3292 sq ft., and there had to be a bidding war here – that area is well sought after (esp. now the sewage plant doesn’t appear to be going in on Clover Pt.)

    Great street. In the medium to long term you have to assume the commune house there will end up as some sort of conversion into high end condos or town-houses. In the meantime you get to enjoy great street parties.

  277. 3045 Larkdowne Rd sold for $1,252k

    975k assessment. 2016
    765k 2015

    Seems pricey but I guess that where we are right now

  278. Look at the rate 10% and 2.5% even if they do not borrow. Ouch…..
    Problem for them is the cash coming in is drying up to issue loans. The loans are fine.

    Hawk better sign a new lease on your room. Nothing is crashing.

    The Toronto-based pension plan is said to have given the struggling Canadian mortgage lender the loan to shore up liquidity as it faces a run on deposits amid a probe by the provincial securities regulator. Home Capital has retained RBC Capital Markets and BMO Capital Markets to advise on “strategic options” after it secured the loan, according to a statement Thursday. Home Capital didn’t identify the lender.

    HOOPP, which represents more than 321,000 healthcare workers in Ontario, was not immediately available to comment. HOOPP President and Chief Executive Officer Jim Keohane sits on Home Capital’s board and is a shareholder. Home Capital’s external spokesman Boyd Erman declined to comment.

    The one-year credit line has a 10 percent interest rate on outstanding balances and a 2.5 percent rate on undrawn amounts, the Toronto-based lender said. The finalized agreement follows an announcement early Wednesday that Home Capital had reached a non-binding agreement in principle with an institutional investor for the loan.

  279. Here’s some interesting sales I noticed today:

    3045 Larkdowne Rd sold for $1,252k which was $53k over asking. Just up the road from me so I took a gander at last weeks OH. It’s was 1950’s all over again, well kept and nothing exciting. The kitchen was tiny and separated ‘galley’ style – cheap countertops. During the OH I even overheard the realtor talking about bulldozing and putting up a contemporary home with rooftop deck to capture the view better. Someone said… ‘is that allowed in OB?’ He mumbled some sort of reply ‘check w/ zoning/bylaws but probably yes’.

    1317 Point St in Fairfield. 1912 build. Sold $160k over asking at $1,410k. Peek a boo ocean view and steps to Dallas Rd. But, hippy commune/rooming house next door (some interesting characters there – hopefully you like reggae music… I do). Tiny lot – only 3292 sq ft., and there had to be a bidding war here – that area is well sought after (esp. now the sewage plant doesn’t appear to be going in on Clover Pt.)

  280. I’m of the loop though as I took a govt job recently so am not an expert on all the new startup and goings on in tech in Victoria. Just based on what I hear from friends they are not making huge salaries and getting tons of job offers. Tech companies can be so volatile too. Scary situation when things are going well and maybe someone buys an expensive house and the economy tanks and they have to move to find work… But that could never happen here right?

    Wow – if according to ‘Bearkilla’ tech pays $900 per hour I’m in the wrong field for taking that secure safe gov’t job as well. Guess I’ll need to look into retraining and throw the towel at freedom 45 or 50 or 55… who needs a defined pension plan when you can finance your own retirement by making so much more?

    @Luke
    Just purchased some non-toxic fertiliser for my hedge to make it grow a little faster and taller.

    Good – so glad to hear that ‘numbers hack’. For not using toxic chemicals or comments, your hedge and this blog will be happier for it. Personally, I’m looking at getting some bamboo instead of a hedge – went to ‘Victoria Bamboo’ out on Interurban the other day and they have some really tall beauty’s. As for toxic chemicals – they are also supposed to be out-lawed in OB – I caught one of my neighbours spraying something on her lawn the other day but she insisted it was chem free… hmmm.

    Love the new post Leo – the difference when ‘zooming out’ on graphs is telling. The last few months was winter… I think what happens over the next few months will be telling for our trend for this year. RE is after all, largely a seasonal thing (spring being the busy time).

  281. gwac you sound scared shitless having to attack the messenger of the predictable bad news. I never said 80%, Marc Cohodes did, you should message him.

    How’s that lot buying going before the next 20% to 30% spike you called for last week ? Better hurry up as you soon might not qualify for a loan for it. 😉

    Crashing Canadian Mortgage Lender Bailed-Out By 321,000 Retired Ontario Healthcare Workers

    With Canada’s housing bubble popping amid the collapse of the country’s largest mortgage lender, it was no surprise that a bailout had been orchestrated, and now we know the source of the $1.5 billion ‘loan’ – 321,000 retired healthcare workers in Ontario.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-27/crashing-canadian-mortgage-lender-bailed-out-321000-retired-ontario-healthcare-worke

  282. Hawk I thought it was 80%. 50% only gets you back to your original sell level. You need something for 10 years of posting on here no?

  283. and if so, what should we be looking for as an early warning of the market rolling over?

    Hawk buys in Oak Bay? 🙂

  284. ICYMI, Home Capital is now junk status. Looks like this is the catalyst the bears knew was coming. Just like the ole USA.

    “Globe says Home Capital woes may burst housing bubble

    2017-04-27 09:05 ET – In the News
    Shares issued 64,203,769
    HCG Close 2017-04-26 C$ 5.99

    The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday edition that Home Capital Group ($5.99) is suffering a crisis of confidence. The Globe’s Andrew Willis writes that Home Capital just fired its chief executive officer amidst a regulatory investigation. Analysts are predicting Home Capital’s woes could be the pin that pops a housing bubble. For Home Capital’s business to work, depositors have to believe they will get their money back. Mr. Willis says that trust is breaking down. Home Capital revealed Wednesday that clients were pulling money out of its high-interest accounts. Laurentian Bank analyst Marc Charbin flagged the risk that the exodus from savings accounts continues to pick up steam and Home Capital’s pool of GIC deposits may also run dry. He says, “This could cause a run on the bank.” The fact that the underlying business or asset is sound does not ensure survival, notes Mr. Willis. Home Capital plans to right the ship by locking in capital, which in turn will stem the exodus of deposits. If that happens, this crisis of confidence will pass. If Canada’s alternative mortgage lenders face an unexpected liquidity crisis, the housing market is in for a potentially nasty downturn.”

  285. District is one of ‘Victoria’, ‘Victoria West’, ‘Oak Bay’, ‘Esquimalt’, ‘View Royal’, ‘Saanich East’, ‘Saanich West’

  286. You have to look at the market lending dynamics that have suddenly changed bigtime. The massive alternative mortgage lending market is under severe scrutiny and the real possibility of the beginning of the Big Short Canadian style with more fraud to be uncovered. Money funding these markets are pulling out at an incredible rate.

    If the bank won’t lend you the money and the remaining players start charging higher rates and stop fudging qualifying documents you have yourself a major credit lending squeeze never seen since 1981. This is a whole new ball game and it don’t look good.

    On top of the declining median from January peak combined with declining sales you have a chart set up for one massive dump. Toss in the trade wars effecting the economy and job losses and look out below.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HCG.TO

  287. Just for the sake of clarity, what is included in the core for these stats. I have seen the term core used to define different areas before.

  288. This post neatly dissects the technique that Just Jack / John Dollar uses to misrepresent the market. The absolute minimum timeframe for any analysis is 12 months. Using a timeframe smaller than that risks confusing seasonal movements for longer term changes.

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