Weekly stats update courtesy of the VREB.
|Wk 1||Wk 2||Wk 3||Wk 4|
|Sales to New Listings||61%||
|Months of Inventory||
Holy moly 470 comments on that last post. That’ll teach me to leave the same post up all week.
Thanks to everyone that came out for the HHV meetup last Friday. Pleasure meeting you all. As the event tagline promised, there was beer, housing, and lots of bullshit. Let’s do it again sometime.
We are now getting extremely close to the conditions of last year. While we still have some 36% fewer properties on the market, sales are down 23% as well, so the months of inventory are about the same, and will likely match last year by the end of the month. We are also no longer posting stronger sales/list ratios compared to last year. It seems there is a limit to the level of activity that can be sustained, and this is it.
Marko Juras mentioned at the meetup that activity is down somewhat in multiple bid situations. Places are still going for big over-asks, but now there might be half as many bids as last year. Buyer exhaustion? Or just a response to the higher asking prices?
Some problems with the date alignments on this chart recently. I’ll fix it for next week.
A common argument for increasing prices is that there is a lack of land in Victoria. While true that we are land constrained in some areas (plenty of space in Langford, and plenty of space downtown to densify), I think the market emotions have a more powerful effect than land constraints. As Steve Saretsky points out, condos in Abbotsford are up 38% from last year. No shortage of land out there and no shortage of construction. Speculation overpowers all.
It’s OK though. Ask most Canadians and they will tell you that house prices never go down. After Fukushima we got some radioactive seaweed here in Victoria. What fallout will there be here when Toronto collapses?