The foreign buyer tax has been in effect for 8 months now, and despite a lot of hand wringing from the real estate and construction industry, as well as fear from Victorians that it might push international buying activity to our market, it seems to be working as intended.
The government has stepped up the timeliness of the data and they are now no longer 2 months behind publishing stats their property transfer tax transactions. So here is the latest data for Victoria and Vancouver. In percentage terms, we can see that outside of the spike in October, foreign buyers have settled in around 4.5% of the market. Not insignificant, but also not a huge number (there were only 25 foreign involved transactions in February).
Looking at the sales volume, the picture is much the same, considering that the sales volume should be decreasing into the winter so the decline is likely more seasonal than indicative of a slowing of interest.
Note that foreign involved transactions are not the same as the buyer origin stats that the VREB puts out. The foreign involvement is based on citizenship (so buyers could have been living and owning property in Victoria before) while buyer origin is based on where the buyer is moving from (their current address).
What will be interesting is if the buying activity in Vancouver picks up now that the foreign buyers rules are being relaxed again. For Victoria it looks like the bigger impact remains Vancouver spillover than direct foreign investment.