Weekly stats update courtesy of the VREB.
|Wk 1||Wk 2||Wk 3||Wk 4|
|Sales to New Listings||51%||64%||72%||76%||
|Months of Inventory||
I feel like a broken record every week talking about inventory and how it shouldn’t be falling this time of year. But it is, and I still can’t get over how unusual that is. If we don’t add significant inventory in the spring, then what happens come July when inventory usually starts dropping for the rest of the year? I can’t imagine that it can be reduced much more than it already is.
With sales at 17% below last year’s rate, and inventory at 39% less, months of inventory is still trending lower and a bit below this time last year. If we look at months of inventory in March for the past 20 years, we can see that this month will almost certainly be a record low. Projecting current sales out to the end of the month, we should expect about 1.4 months of residential inventory which is lower than the previous record of 1.6 in March 2004.
People aren’t listing because there’s nothing to buy, and there’s nothing to buy because people aren’t listing. At some point it has to break, but when?