March 13 Market Update

Weekly stats update courtesy of the VREB.

March 2017
Mar
 2016
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4
Unconditional Sales 107 312
1121
New Listings 209 484
1445
Active Listings 1581 1614
2618
Sales to New Listings  51% 64%
78%
Sales Projection 852
Months of Inventory

3.3

Sales/list ratio still lagging last year significantly.   This will be the first month where we see really significant year over year drops in sales.   Months of inventory is still less than last year because we have 37% fewer properties on the market, but that will soon equalize.

If we hit about 850-900 sales, that will still be a very strong March, but the months of records are about over.

In other news, BC is going to dial back the foreign buyers tax a bit.  “International citizens with work permits, who pay taxes in B.C., won’t have to pay the foreign buyer surcharge. That’s a bid to recruit high-tech workers from the United States. And foreign nationals who were hit with the 15 per cent foreign buyer tax on their real estate, but then months later become Canadian citizens, could get a rebate.”  – Vancouver Sun   

Overall I think those are positive changes.   The foreign buyers tax is there to discourage speculation in real estate, not to discourage people to come here to work and pay taxes, and the recent changes bring it closer to that goal.

The HHV Meetup is happening on April 7th at 6PM at the Penny Farthing. I have a reservation for 20 people which is about as many as are signed up.  If you can no longer make it, please remove your name from the list or email me so I can adjust reservations closer to the date.  Thanks!
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224 thoughts on “March 13 Market Update

  1. Holà from Puerto Vallarta! It took me all day to catch up on comments by buffering the comments in Wifi areas lol

    “You’re not half the man your mother was.”

    I read the list out to my husband and he actually LOL’d at this one and said it was the best one. He said it was like two insults in one. Personally, I like the crayons one the best. 😉

  2. When Lebron James lost in the 2011 NBA finals at the press conference he addressed all his critics with……”you all still have to go back to your jobs tomorrow.” Really stuck with me……..even after a loss he gets to go vacation on a yacht and I get to go do mere postings on a Sunday 🙂

    Everyone who is commenting on grammar is sitting in front of their salaried desk job day in and day out with nothing better to do and it makes them feel better to criticize…………….why anyone would care?

  3. Without some of the childish taunts from Just Jack/John Dollar, Hawk, and others, this blog would become very quiet, very quickly.

    “I love how you state the obvious with such a sense of discovery.”

    “Brains aren’t everything. In your case, they’re nothing.”

    “I’m somewhat envious of those who don’t know you.”

    “You’re not half the man your mother was.”

    “Two wrongs don’t make a right, take your parents as an example.”

    “If I wanted to kill myself I’d climb your ego and jump to your IQ.”

    “I don’t think you are stupid. You just have a bad luck when thinking.”

    “You’re like school in the summertime – no class.”

    “I don’t know what your problem is, but I’ll bet it’s hard to pronounce.”

    “You look like a before picture.”

    “I have neither the time nor the crayons to explain this to you.”

  4. Adultish taunts:

    ..stats-and-analysis snoozefest. (hypens please)

    ..his posts were interesting and well written. (no hypen please)

  5. Without some of the childish taunts from Just Jack/John Dollar, Hawk, and others, this blog would become very quiet, very quickly.

    To paraphrase Voltaire, I disapprove of what they say, but I will defend to the death their right to say it.

  6. Will the Libs dare to take on the sacred cow that is the primary residence exemption? They need new revenue sources. They want to tax the “rich”. They have to worry about becoming less competitive in comparison to a tax-reducing Trump administration in income tax rates, capital gains rates etc. Their efforts to cool the housing market have proven ineffective. Why not copy the small business lifetime $800K exemption?

  7. I try to skip past the childish taunts between people in this blog; I prefer the opinions of people who have constructive professional opinions, like Marko, JJ/JohnDollar, and several others.

    That’s fine. I usually skip past certain people’s comments, too.

    They’re adultish taunts, actually. I presume we’re all adults. The squabbling and taunting keeps things interesting. I hope this blog never turns into a stats and analysis snoozefest.

  8. Was just about to post that Jerry. Lawrence Solomon is a lunatic but on this topic he has a point.

  9. I try to skip past the childish taunts between people in this blog; I prefer the opinions of people who have constructive professional opinions, like Marko, JJ/JohnDollar, and several others. But the ongoing criticism of grammar is a bit much. I wonder if the taunting trolls have considered that they might be belittling someone with a disability, such as dyslexia? In my mind, trollish taunts are just bullying and maybe bullying someone with a disability. If it makes you feel superior to troll and taunt then you’re just a bully that deserves to be treated as such. I’m not implying anyone has dyslexia or any other disability, but we don’t know each other, so why not just stop the bully tactics and get back to house hunting and housing statistics and activity.

  10. @ John D, I think I more mean to not take it so personal. Introvert is a pretty polite troll all in all. I find you are a pretty good writer with some useful technical insights. Take it as a challenge to be a better writer!

  11. … when all it really means is that we’re talking 2 different periods & measures.

    Right. And most of all it isn’t correct. MOI is defined as full month sales over inventory, so stating MOI as any other definition is incorrect (and meaningless).

  12. John Dollar / Just Jack – you’ve launched a few ad hominem attacks yourself. I’m not sure that you can take the moral high ground.

  13. Yes when comparing ratios & rates, there are probably extra precautions needed in presenting the numbers so people can compare the same time periods and the same units of measure.

    It’s because when people are surface-skimming, they see a huge 42% vs 19% difference, it’s so easy to conclude that the sales rate has fallen.

    … when all it really means is that we’re talking 2 different periods & measures.

    Same reason why Leo uses Sales/New List (instead of Total Active) and publishes weekly – because then both top & bottom of the ratio are within the same time period and different weeks can be compared in the same month, and then later YOY.

  14. Thanks for the support, VicRenter and Dasmo. I hope JD doesn’t leave; his posts were interesting and well-written.

  15. Vicbot –

    Yes, it’s a little like comparing apples to oranges, but I think I was clear that I was simply listing the March 2016 full month Sales/Actives ratio and the March 2017 to date Sales/Actives ratio, and that I was looking forward to the end of the month stats to see the direct full month comparison.

    A more accurate comparison is the Sales/Actives numbers for March 2016 to date at 17% but I didn’t have those numbers, so thanks for posting them.

    It will be interesting to see the numbers that present themselves at the end of the month.

  16. Dasmo, are you suggesting that this is constructive criticism from someone who has talent?

    Because that is different than the hate spewed from a spiteful, malevolent, hostile, bitter, venomous, poisonous, evil-intentioned, ill-natured, evil, baleful, vindictive, vengeful, vitriolic, rancorous, malign, malignant, pernicious, mean, nasty, harmful, hurtful, mischievous, destructive, wounding, cruel, unkind, defamatory troll.

  17. Too bad if JD left. Total misunderstanding. Introvert heaped praise upon him! I don’t mind having a grammar Nazi in our midst. I am a poor handler of language in general and don’t mind slowly correcting that through humiliation. This is not a conversation and is the written word so grammar and spelling should matter. I would never take offence personally for my errors being pointed out. It should happen more often. Think of those poor people that go on American Idol after years of being told they are awesome only to finally be ridiculed on TV by truthfully brutal Simon Cowell.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNKTTSTxIEs

  18. And it isn’t a bad thing to be reminded every now and then that the quality of a person’s writing often affects how that person is perceived by others.

    And it is also important to understand that this is a blog not an article for Mcleans or an essay for a class where you would have a period of time to edit and proof read.

    A blog is a conversation in real time, misplacing an apostrophe is of no importance in a conversation. And neither can you tell the difference between there, their or they’re in a conversation. But for a third party to break into a conversation to correct grammar and then add ad hominem slurs is rude and done intentionally to disrupt the conversation.

    That person would never do this in a real life situation because of the consequences.

    https://youtu.be/Xrz0d4PAB1k

  19. @Reasonfirst: “…on an anonymous blog?”

    Life lessons pop up in the strangest places, don’t they?

  20. True, it isn’t a full month of inventory it is a bi-weekly estimate of inventory. I wasn’t trying to suggest that there was a doubling of the MOI, just that the overall market remains a sellers market with rising average and median prices over the last three months.

    And that’s what a sellers market indicates – rising prices.

    Unlike a balanced market between buyers and sellers that would infer stable prices. And of course a buyers market would relate to declining prices.

    But you need to know more than just the MOI, you need to know how fast listings are being added and how fast sales are being absorbed. And that determination of a buyers, balanced or stable market can and most often is different for types of properties and geographical areas comprising similar buyers and sellers in age, wealth, etc.

  21. Sure, there are any number of things you can do that would be fine to correct the MOI mid month, but stating either MOI or sales/actives without doing those things is just confusing. To someone that doesn’t know the details it indicates that MOI has taken a big jump when it hasn’t.

  22. Or you could do this

    15/31 x 4.2 MOI = 2.03 projected MOI assuming the rate of sales and listings remain constant. Or you could look at the rate of change per day for both listings and sales and project those out to the end of the month.

  23. “And it isn’t a bad thing to be reminded every now and then that the quality of a person’s writing often affects how that person is perceived by others.”

    …on an anonymous blog? 🙂

  24. Leo S, also remember that we are only half way through the month. So you should expect that percentage to double. Or putting it another way the months of inventory to halve. So I do understand that. That doesn’t change what I wrote at the end. We are still in a market that favor sellers.

  25. Leo S, what I have for March is 392/1649 or 23.8% which is the inverse of the Months of Inventory for all properties in all areas of 4.2 MOI

    But it doesn’t work like that. You can’t take a partial months of sales and calculate MOI. Either you take the trailing 30 days of sales (that would be 692 sales or 2.4MOI) or you project out the sales rate to the end of the month and calculate MOI that way (this is what I do on the weekly charts).

    Taking month to date sales will always give you inaccurate readings except at the very end of the month.

  26. “Sales/ Actives March 2016 = 42% Sales/Actives March to date 2017 = 19%”
    “Huh? This doesn’t make sense”

    Ya, those numbers don’t seem right. Mid-way through March 2016 the Sales/Actives were 17% (447/2576) – not 42%

    Andy7, you might be comparing apples to oranges? You’re dividing a monthly number by a total active market number, which is always going to be lower mid-month.

    That’s why Leo S always using Monthly Sales/New Listings ratio to come up with Sales/New List ratio. Or am I missing something?

  27. By the way, the difference between 5 year renewals in Canada and a 25 to 30 year in the US isn’t so different when you factor in that “most” people won’t have to qualify at renewal even if rates rise, as they will have paid down some equity, have a higher income or the banks, who don’t want to force closure, will offer a mortgage re-extension on the amortization to 25 years to make it work at higher rates..

    In a declining rate environment, your friendly banker tried to get you to do the same to take out some equity (that was the sales pitch) to buy a new car, boat, holiday or leverage up with another property.

  28. Leo S, what I have for March is 392/1649 or 23.8% which is the inverse of the Months of Inventory for all properties in all areas of 4.2 MOI. New listings being added at the rate of 1.5 for every one property sold. 1.5:1 (inverse at 67%) And the average days-on-market at 25. That still would characterizes the overall market as being in favor of sellers with both the median and average sale prices increasing over the last 3 months. But it doesn’t characterize a market that is strongly in favor of sellers like we had this time last year.

    I just find that too broad and not very telling of what is happening in types of properties and areas. Being too broad, it doesn’t explain the rise or fall of median and average sale prices by property type or specific neighborhoods as these prices can be skewed by the mix of properties and areas.

  29. I beg to differ LEO.. anticipating a 1% increase in mortgage rates over the coming year certainly affects the cash flow requirements on a 5 year mortgage…we’ve lived in a declining interest rate cycle for so long, maybe people have forgotten this impact. The concept of buy now, lock in the rates and let inflation take care of the balance comes to mind. (so long as rates are behind the rate of inflation) or do you subscribe to the veracity of government published CPI?

  30. People rushing in before the changes take effect and pulling demand forward. I just don’t see it in the data.

    I guess that’s not altogether surprising. Perhaps in the USA it would make more sense, but here what’s the point of rushing in, when in 5 years, it is likely to be higher rates anyways – i.e., what are you actually trying to “beat”?

    You could make the term the entire amortization period, but the interest rate penalty would more than defeat the purpose.

  31. The effect of rising rates can also get people to act now rather than later…prompt people on the fence to get positioned before costs keep rising and priced out of the market by rising rates alone.

    I’ve heard variants of this theory for years now when regulatory changes come down the pipe. People rushing in before the changes take effect and pulling demand forward. I just don’t see it in the data. The effect seems to be pretty small and overwhelmed by other bigger market trends.
    There was some evidence of a rush when the foreign buyer tax was introduced in Vancouver and that was a 15% increase in purchase price. Tweaks amounting to fractions of a percent will have much less effect

  32. “If the other JD had attempted to write something like that it would have been ugly.”

    Introvert. What has Johnny Dollar done to you that you treat him with such vehemence?

  33. The effect of rising rates can also get people to act now rather than later…prompt people on the fence to get positioned before costs keep rising and priced out of the market by rising rates alone.
    In the 70’s, as rates rose. people rushed to get in before they couldn’t afford the financing CARRYING costs…similar thing happened in the US pre-2008. At some point of higher rates there is a tilt..but not immediately, it takes awhile to spread through the system… BWDIK…I’m certain HAWK will contradict me… 😉

  34. I too think that Introvert offered JD genuine praise. Introvert isn’t trying to break the blog — he/she contributes valuable opinions in a saucy style. And it isn’t a bad thing to be reminded every now and then that the quality of a person’s writing often affects how that person is perceived by others.

    Thanks very much to those who offered info on Quadra elementary!

  35. Leo, thanks for posting the numbers. Looking forward to the numbers at the end of the month.

    Sales/ Actives March 2016 = 42%
    Sales/Actives March to date 2017 = 19%

    Seller’s Market = 20%+
    Balanced = 12-20%
    Buyer’s = Under 12%

  36. If memory serves LRT was rejected in favour of natural gas by the good folks of the western communities. Every time I drive up island, which is a fair bit, I curse the municipalities and developers that were allowed to put some of these projects through. We now have double merges and extra lights ad nauseum.

    And now everyone else gets to pay for the Band-Aid interchanges and new think-tanks.

    /rant

    How is it that other countries are able to pull of livability but we aren’t?

  37. Hi Leo. Thanks for the thoughtful response. I cannot resist: this time it may be different–I think, maybe. I will let the issue lie for another time.

  38. Hi Gil, welcome to the blog. On the subject of rail, I have to say I am extremely pessimistic that it will ever get built. This is just another new study where they will look at the options and conclude that it’s too expensive and there’s no political will, and there wouldn’t be enough ridership. I’d say the chances of any kind of light rail commuter train coming back to Victoria in the next 20 years are negligible.
    If it happened, what would be the effect? Likely similar to Vancouver when they build a new leg of the skytrain. Land on the line or close to it increases in value and density increases around it.

    The other thing about public transport, when do cities usually build it? How many other cities of ~400,000 people have a functioning light rail system? Honestly by the time it will get built here I think it may no longer be necessary (columns of autonomous electric vehicles to ferry people in and out of town and active ridesharing).

  39. Local fool I was just about to post the EXACT same thing! Literally! Take that grammar nazi’s

    Things look crazy out there! It’s hard to imagine it slowing down but I have to keep telling myself it will. I think it will be a slow melt for the reasons you said. I really can’t see starter homes going much higher than they already are. I’ve also noticed that homes with no suites in the areas I’ve been looking seem to be taking longer to sell and suited homes go quick. There’s a reason for that and it’s because the average family cannot carry a 600k mortgage without extra cash every month. I think the effects of the new stress tests will be more apparent this year or next year. It might take a while because I think with the low inventory of last year there are a lot of people waiting to pounce on new properties.

  40. I want to propose a new thread for the near future:

    First, what are the implications of the new E&N proposal for the greater Victoria, the entire south island economy and different housing market segments in the short and long (twenty year) term?

    Second, how important is the selection of the West Vic/Roundhouse/downtown terminal and what are the ramifications of different locations for effects of the choice on the probability of success of the line and the impact of different choices on particular housing markets.

    Three, what are the pros and cons of alternatives? Note earlier studies for the province on the future of LRT in the Victoria area specifically rejected the E&N route and strongly endorsed a route east adjacent to the TCH and then south along Douglas or a parallel street to a core downtown terminal.

    Four, would narrowly paving over, but preserving, the roadbed and running ONLY express buses on the new roadway be superior to a rail solution? Note that looking down the road(Ugh!) or rails a few years when the project is ready, we MIGHT be able to use driverless vehicles.

    Finally, you say thank god, in the case of four, obviously my tentative favorite, we might consider the implications and strategies for having some of those vehicles (driverless) continue past the dedicated right-of-way west terminal(probably with a driver?) to high value transit locations deeper to the west on standard shared roadways and beyond the dedicated line east, downtown, terminal onto existing shared roadways into downtown high-transit-value locations.

    Of course, questions like these explain why you see economists, like myself, off to the side with accountants and finance types while everyone else at ten year anniversary social events are partying.

  41. All these years I’ve been picturing Introvert as a fellow. You’re not? Really?

    It shall remain a mystery.

    Also, JD, fwiw, I believe Introvert was expressing honest admiration there. I liked your post too! About time we had some poetic language around here.

    Thanks, totoro.

  42. Real estate:

    I wonder what effects the rising US rates will have on the market here in Canada. It seems there are at least 2 ways the effects would occur. Firstly, the higher rate would prevent some people (who prefer fixed) from buying in the first place, which may slow entry into the market. Easy enough.

    But for those ~70% already in the market, what would be the effect? If I understand correctly, this will only really affect fixed term mortgages, and most people get 5 year terms. So is it fair to conclude that from this cohort, we won’t see any effect for several years (ie renewal time)?

  43. There’s special help groups for those of you with the spelling nazi afliction.

    It’s less of a Nazi thing than an obsessive compulsive thing exacerbated by fear of correction by Introvert.

  44. There’s special help groups for those of you with the spelling nazi afliction

    Nazi is a proper noun. Please capitalize.

    Affliction has two f’s.

    Ok, now I’m just being a troll. Sorry for completely derailing this thread. 🙁

  45. When the week end comes you want to get away from work not be surrounded by the noise and crime of an inner city neighbourhood.

    Says the guy who’s looking to build two houses in Oaklands!

    Admit it John, you’re coming around big time on the hood. Next we’ll learn that you’re the guy building the passive house on Belmont ave

  46. Depends on the context. …

    Oh, thanks. But no apostrophe? Ever? … Disappointing.

    I always have the urge to put one in there somewhere.

  47. If referring to a collective of, say, the Bush family, would you refer to the Bushs, the Bushes or the Bush’s? And what about the Jones family? Should it be the Jones’, or Jones’s, Joneses, or what?

    Depends on the context.

    If you are referring to the family collective:

    End in “s” or “es”. Joneses, Smiths, etc.

    If you are indicating family possession:

    The Joneses’ house.

    The Smiths’ house.

    😀

  48. Jumping up and down and waving hands… \ 0 /

    Can I be the first voted off??? huh??? please??? pretty please ???

    (oh darn…you didn’t mean off Vancouver Island did you?) ;0

  49. Here’s another of life’s deep questions.

    If referring to a collective of, say, the Bush family, would you refer to the Bushs, the Bushes or the Bush’s? And what about the Jones family? Should it be the Jones’, or Jones’s, Joneses, or what?

    Any advice will be gratefully received.

  50. Woah! I didn’t realize my apostrophe question would spawn such a response. Well, thank you to all that responded. I was curious and now I can have some confidence.

    With 6 or 7 more rate hikes coming in the next 18 months or so all the bulls can do is argue about apostrophes ?

    Hawk, you need to chastise more fairly. I am one of the bears, and in fact I started the entire topic of apostrophes. I may ask similar questions in the future, so be sure to let me have it. Incidentally, you should come to the meetup on the 7th. I will use the code-word you gave me.

    Yes JD, you’d be leaving on a misunderstanding. I was talking about using apostrophes to denote a plural; yours isn’t even in that category. And like I said, I had no idea you did that until you pointed it out. I don’t think Introvert noticed either. I’ll only seriously troll grammar if I detect the writer is a rude, pompous troll who graduated grade 8 English from Fisher Price High. So come back. Among other things, I like looking at your avatar wondering exactly what the figure in it is. Actually, could you tell me?

  51. All these years I’ve been picturing Introvert as a fellow. You’re not? Really?

    Also, JD, fwiw, I believe Introvert was expressing honest admiration there. I liked your post too! About time we had some poetic language around here.

    We’ll do a secret vote at the meetup who is being voted off the island.

    I may have to Skype in from abroad. Don’t want to return to town to a notice to vacate.

    When the week end comes you want to get away from work not be surrounded by the noise and crime of an inner city neighborhood.

    It is hard living in the ghetto.

  52. As for Gordon Head, I always separate it into east of Tyndall for the posh side, and west as the favelas.

    That’s funny, Leo.

    JD, that’s Introvert’s purpose on this blog. She wants to break the blog.

    Are you kidding? I love this blog.

    There is no reason for her to be here except to disrupt the free flow of ideas.

    There are other reasons!

  53. With 6 or 7 more rate hikes coming in the next 18 months or so all the bulls can do is argue about apostrophes ?

    If I was Intorovert I’d be loading up on bunk beds for more companionship to pay the mortgage. This about to get ugly with 2 points going to wipe out an entire generation.

  54. Funny I was trying to fix something I said, but it sounds right, this apostrophe thing is getting too deep 🙂 Anyway, sometimes it’s used, sometimes not.

  55. JD needs to write more poetry for us. His use of apostrophe use was good, wasn’t it? According to Chicago Manual of Style, sometimes you use an apostrophe, sometimes not. It’s used when a word isn’t a noun ( “I told you so” wasn’t a noun – maybe) :

    “When forming the plural of words and hyphenated phrases that aren’t nouns but are used as nouns sometimes you do and sometimes you don’t:
    I want no ifs or buts.
    Here are the dos and don’ts of blogging.
    I’ve written 25 thank-yous.
    BUT
    I’m tired of all his maybe’s “

  56. @ Local Fool

    In British English, the word following the colon is in lower case unless it is a proper noun or an acronym, or is normally capitalized for some other reason. However, in American English, many writers capitalize the word following a colon if it begins an independent clause, i.e. a clause which could stand as a complete sentence. This follows the guidelines of some modern American style guides, including those published by the Associated Press and the Modern Language Association. The Chicago Manual of Style,[6] however, requires capitalization only when the colon introduces a direct quotation or two or more complete sentences.

  57. We’ll do a secret vote at the meetup who is being voted off the island.

    As for Gordon Head, I always separate it into east of Tyndall for the posh side, and west as the favelas.

  58. JD, that’s Introvert’s purpose on this blog. She wants to break the blog. As far as I’m concerned she’s an industry troll and adds little to no value to the discussions. There is no reason for her to be here except to disrupt the free flow of ideas.

    It’s time for her to leave. Let’s put it to a vote.

  59. You know one thing I can never figure out though – what to do after a colon. Does the proceeding letter get capitalized, or not?

    It’s a style choice,

    or maybe a matter of nationality.

    In British English, the first letter after a colon is capitalized only if it’s a proper noun or an acronym; in American English, the first word after a colon is sometimes capitalized if it begins a complete sentence: source.

  60. Thanks to Introvert for calling me a moron, though. I’d call you something else.

    I wrote: “That … was a thing of beauty. And no grammar issues.” This wasn’t sarcastic, but I guess that wasn’t obvious.

    And I didn’t think Local Fool brought up apostrophe misuse in response to JD’s post.

    PS – you’ll be glad to hear that you won’t have to mix up JDs anymore. Out, for good.

    Feel free to leave, but you’d be doing so based on a misunderstanding. And we’d miss you.

  61. Hello Leo thank You for the info análisis on tour blog. Super intereses in tour projections for the Next 5-10yrs, but currently working living in Perú, with parte of the family in Edmonton. Want ti make westshore home un 5 years would LOVE some orientación re timing and type of property yo buy for family of 5.

  62. Below I guess is a mistake. 11 baths, 7 BR in 1700 sq. Love to see that. Since it is unfinished just a suggestion maybe?

  63. Local Fool, the challenge is trying to anticipate what happens next in Victoria – and “proof” is something that only happens with reams of historical data – after the fact. So we’re stuck dealing with clues – but to get ahead of the curve we have to.

    After 30 years in Vancouver, we see the same patterns emerging here. The difference is that there’s a mix of out-of-towners that include both Vancouver & international buyers, esp with the low Cdn$ (5.8% increase June to Jan). Along with retirees.

    Then you add speculators to the mix, anticipating more of the same, & prices explode.

    We’re seeing history is repeating itself – like deja vu. It’s a weird feeling. Exactly the same patterns are there. eg., proximity to UVic & Camosun, suite potential for extended family, treeless properties, chrome Maseratis, RE tour groups. We used to say WTF too. Word of mouth spreads and it just escalates, including among realtors, who tell their friends, etc.

  64. @ JD,

    Actually I only skimmed what you wrote. I hadn’t noticed that until you pointed it out below, so I wasn’t referring to your post at that time.

    It was actually something I saw at a grocery store the other night; it was a 2 for 1 for “salmon fillet’s”. Ugh. Sad, really.

    PS – you’ll be glad to hear that you won’t have to mix up JDs anymore. Out, for good.

    That’s not necessary at all.

  65. I personally eschew those subareas and favour calling anything within Gordon Head Gordon Head.

    But then how do you know how elite someone from GH is? Arbutus is clearly superior to Lambrick park. 😉

    I’m with you. GH is all pretty much the same housing stock, so why differentiate? If anything all of it should be lumped together minus the part north of Ash/Grandview/Arbutus. There is a bit of a difference there due to the proximity to the ocean.

    I also don’t understand the need to differentiate Lakehill from High Quadra. Is it really that different from one side of Quadra to the other? Seems like the same isht to me. North of McKenzie, east of the highway, and definitely not Broadmead.

  66. Did you ever. Have you noticed the new trend of adding apostrophes where no possession is indicated? It annoy’s me – it’s like they can’t see the forest for the tree’s.

    It annoys me too, I meant to write ‘i told you so’s as ‘i told you so’ with a plural but added the quote afterwards too, by accident. Writing very quickly and this is not literature boys. Thanks to Introvert for calling me a moron, though. I’d call you something else.

  67. I was concerned that calling GH shit boxes was the wrong use but I was wrong. Box definition is right.

    It’s a mistake to focus on the box. It’s the location of the land.

  68. I was concerned that calling GH shit boxes was the wrong use but I was wrong. Box definition is right.

    a container with a flat base and sides, typically square or rectangular and having a lid.
    “a cereal box”

  69. Have you noticed the new trend of adding apostrophes where no possession is indicated?

    I have. It proliferates as morons copy morons.

    You know one thing I can never figure out though – what to do after a colon. Does the proceeding letter get capitalized, or not?

    It’s a style choice. I use lowercase.

  70. “After a 15% levy on purchases from abroad was introduced in the Canadian city of Vancouver last August, the number of foreign buyers dropped by 80%. That helped dampen house-price inflation there but pushed up demand in nearby Victoria.”

    I’ve seen a similar statement made recently and I’m just not really sure it holds up. It doesn’t look like there’s been any appreciable increase in foreign buyers in Victoria, although I bet the speculation that there is has ironically caused a huge spike in prices – perhaps others can prove me wrong. The tax probably accelerated what was already a declining trend in the Vancouver market, but I don’t think the decline was because they were moving writ large to secondary BC cities.

    Mostly intuition on my part.

  71. So are you saying there’s a sub area of Gordon Head that is also called Gordon head?

    Yes. According to VREB.

    If so, would that not be GH proper and the outlying areas, while still in GH not be GH proper?

    You’re right, the VREB’s subarea of Gordon Head that it calls Gordon Head is perhaps best called Gordon Head proper.

    To summarize and clarify:

    The neighbourhood of Gordon Head (that Saanich recognizes) has subareas that the VREB created and they are: Mount Doug, Gordon Head (proper?), Lambrick Park, and Arbutus.

    I personally eschew those subareas and favour calling anything within Gordon Head Gordon Head.

  72. I did!

    Did you ever. Have you noticed the new trend of adding apostrophes where no possession is indicated? It annoy’s me – it’s like they can’t see the forest for the tree’s.

    You know one thing I can never figure out though – what to do after a colon. Does the proceeding letter get capitalized, or not?

    Random musings…

  73. This is seriously messed up when crappy houses that should be for young families getting a start, or scrappy folks who don’t mow the lawn and like to work on cars in the front yard are selling for luxury prices.

    Reminds me of Toronto in 1986. Houses selling for three times the price of an OB bungalow were occupied by the sort of people who could not possibly afford to buy such high-priced houses. A couple of years later, the bottom fell out and …

  74. I remember back in university days it was common to have raging keggers in GH shitboxes rented out to students. I swear sometimes there were well over 100 people.

    Yep, a friend almost got evicted for doing just that. 70s GH box rented to a bunch of guys.

    Is this still a common thing? You’d think that be a bit of a downer.

    Millennials don’t drink beer. They drink freshly juiced organic kale.

  75. Victoria is mentioned in a new Economist article: Foreign Buyers Push Up Global House Prices
    http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21718511-bolthole-money-welcome-comes-unintended-consequences-foreign-buyers

    “After a 15% levy on purchases from abroad was introduced in the Canadian city of Vancouver last August, the number of foreign buyers dropped by 80%. That helped dampen house-price inflation there but pushed up demand in nearby Victoria.”

    “… interest in boltholes in New Zealand has tripled since Mr Trump’s election.”

    “… Haven investors may disregard affordability measures. Property can either be a bolthole or earn an income; in many supply-constrained cities its value may rise rapidly; even if not, the risks may be lower than at home.”

  76. JD – that is some poetry, man!

    Yes, the hyperbole is a little much. Prices are going up quickly in some neighbourhoods. I hope we don’t get to Vancouver levels of P/I ratios, but locals still do have options. Look – why is Esquimalt so cheap? I reckon it will gentrify rapidly sometime soon. The location is great and it has tons of potential. Just like East Van, there’s high value in the unloved inner city.

  77. Not sure why people think that is a good thing either. I don’t want to live in a city that is for investors only.

    Then you should have bought in Langford, Leo. The writing has been on the wall for a while now: Fairfield, Oak Bay, and several neighbourhoods in Saanich East are domains of the rich.

    Good luck, JD. I hope Introvert goes easy on you.

    I did!

    If the other JD had attempted to write something like that it would have been ugly.

  78. It’s no more ridiculous than the daily-offered notion that anyone buying now will, …

    umm..hugs

    Good luck, JD. I hope Introvert goes easy on you.

    Olanzapine

  79. I remember back in university days it was common to have raging keggers in GH shitboxes rented out to students. I swear sometimes there were well over 100 people. Is this still a common thing? You’d think that be a bit of a downer.

  80. Yes, it is Gordon Head proper. VREB breaks GH down into subareas like Lambrick and Arbutus, which can make it confusing.

    VREB lists “Gordon Head” as a separate area from “Lambrick Park”. So are you saying there’s a sub area of Gordon Head that is also called Gordon head? If so, would that not be GH proper and the outlying areas, while still in GH not be GH proper?

    See:

    http://www.vreb.org/buying-selling/about-victoria-bc/the-vreb-core-region/saanich-east

    It separates the area I grew up calling GH into:

    Mount Doug
    Gordon Head
    Lambrick Park
    Arbutus

  81. It’s no more ridiculous than the daily-offered notion that anyone buying now will, in six weeks time, end up sinking into the clay-soaked tsunami swamps of South Oak Bay, gasping for the green, spore-filled air…

    That … was a thing of beauty. And no grammar issues.

  82. @ gwac,

    Funny you mention that. I have actually razed my bumper backing into one of those large rocks. Very dangerous place. In GH you really are only at risk of backing into students, and those don’t scratch the bumper nearly as badly.

  83. LF

    Don’t forget
    Cant park your RV or Boat
    No signs
    No laundry line
    Lots are too large
    Too many large rocks
    Too many trees
    Cant have a suite.

    GH buy there you can park your boat rv on your lawn if you want. Best to do both.
    You can litter your yard with signs and clothes. GH you can really do whatever you want. Best to live there.

  84. Same in Vancouver, huge drop in new listings in February. And Calgary too? What’s behind this?

    I bet it’s those foreigners. Let’s tax ’em to high hell. Or it’s Airbnb—pure evil.

    I’m with Hawk… the end is nigh. Million dollar GH boxes will soon be selling for the price of a used shoe box from Payless. You won’t be able to give them away.

    Heard it so many times over the last decade.

    Fleet isn’t even GH proper, it’s Lambrick park (don’t tell the buyer.. they’ll be crushed).

    Yes, it is Gordon Head proper.

    http://www.gordonhead.ca/gordonhead/Gordon_Head_Heritage_Buildings_files/Gordon%20Head%20Saanich%20Heritage%20Register.pdf

    VREB breaks GH down into subareas like Lambrick and Arbutus, which can make it confusing.

    I get OB and Fairfiled. Nice established neighbourhoods with nice new and old character homes in walkable neighbourhoods with sidewalks and tree lined streets. But this?

    Say what you want, but Fleet St is extremely walkable: 10 minutes to Tuscany Village/University Heights/Nellie McClung library; 20-25 minutes to the beach (Gyro Park) in Caddy Bay.

  85. What’s great about Broadmead is that you leave the city behind and all its problems. Well worth the short commute for the substantial increase in life style.

    I’d appreciate it if you don’t give my secret away. Broadmead is a dark, depressing place with no life in it at all. The Canadian Tire there is too small, keeps bad hours and the clinic there is closed all the time due to “a doctor shortage”. No beaches, pine needles everywhere, and drivers so slow your foot will forget where the accelerator is. Risk of zombie apocalypse is high due to proximity to massive cemetery.

    Definitely don’t want to live there…nope, stay away at all costs. 🙂

  86. Why couldn’t this have been a normal recovery…..

    It is not wildly out of the ordinary from a percentage gains standpoint. The thing is the 20% gain on $800k is a lot more than $20% on $325,000 like we had the last time around. Thing is at this rate of price trajectory, we will very soon escape all semblance of affordability, just like Vancouver. Not sure why people think that is a good thing either. I don’t want to live in a city that is for investors only.

  87. What’s interesting about Asian ‘student’s’ who’s well off parents bought homes for them in ‘hoods near UVic in GH or OB Henderson w/ the large lots where homes went up by up to or around $500k or so in the last four years is: if they sell after finishing school, they can avoid capital gains as well as it was their ‘primary residence’ while they were going to uni.

    While they have to pay higher fees than domestic students (who are also increasingly being ‘outsmarted’ and not even able to get into some courses). They can often more than make up the difference in the fees by banking large profits on selling what were once comfortable (or in the case of GH – not so comfortable) homes meant for middle class working Canadians. Not anymore! One has to wonder where the middle class working Canadians are having to go – the Westshore quickly comes to mind. And, as Canadians are outsmarted out of Uni. more and more, one also wonders what they will do and how will they compete in the future? As AI and automation also increasingly will make the future job prospects for everyone more daunting. More and more, I’m starting to think I’m so glad I wasn’t born any later than I was.

    I do have to wonder, however, if paying $1.1m for that GH crap box on Fleet St. will work out for them after four more years? I guess it’s a gamble they’re willing to take. After all, they hold western post secondary education in very high esteem.

    I also wonder, even if the 15% tax is implemented here, will it make any difference in the long run? Esp. considering Chrusty has now allowed those w/ work permits to avoid the tax (and foreign students can get certain types of work permits). Also, as the Hong Kong example has shown – the tax eventually gets ‘digested’ and accepted and then has to be doubled to 30% (and in HK -the currency is pegged to the US dollar so there is no currency advantage). Also, if the Cdn loonie falls further, very possible under Trump’s policies, that will make up some or all of the 15%. As of yet, of course, the 15% tax isn’t even a factor in Vic! I think we will see the 15% tax digested soon in Van.

    More than the 15% tax will have to be done to discourage the foreign investment if that’s what Canadians want.

  88. Love it.

    It’s no more ridiculous than the daily-offered notion that anyone buying now will, in six weeks time, end up sinking into the clay-soaked tsunami swamps of South Oak Bay, gasping for the green, spore-filled air of their once-standing now-worthless red zone crack house they sold their first born and a kidney for, buried in the knob-and-tube aftermath of the world’s only known instance of an interest-rate induced BIG ONE which tore a rift in the earth’s Krusty so wide that it was able to swallow the endless tirade of ‘I told you so’s’ hurled curbside in a jumble of mixed farm animal metaphors by a panel of homogenized Ross McTurners mopping up the blood as the bank’s call rings endlessly on the iPhone 7 sinking in the prime-deal soup.

  89. What’s great about Broadmead is that you leave the city behind and all its problems. Well worth the short commute for the substantial increase in life style.

    There is more to life than being 15 minutes closer to your job. When the week end comes you want to get away from work not be surrounded by the noise and crime of an inner city neighborhood.

  90. Seems fairly normal, other than maybe a bit hot out of the gates.

    Love it.

    Your line reminds me of the press briefing Donald Rumsfeld gave shortly after the invasion of Iraq – looters everywhere, total breakdown of law and order. He was shown footage of this happening in Baghdad and he referred to it as “untidiness” – but that’s okay, “freedom is untidy”. “Stuff happens”.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RY9l73Yo9Pw

  91. “Seems fairly normal, other than maybe a bit hot out of the gates. This current spike should lead to a mid-cycle lull in about a year.”

    LOL… you’re too funny Mike, I guess you’re praying on Justin going back to 40 year mortgages, ain’t gonna happen with capital gains taxes increasing.

    Flippers will pay dearly for not selling as the coming Canadian Big Short bank fraud kicks into gear with major investigations.

  92. Michael:

    Seems fairly normal, other than maybe a bit hot out of the gates

    Bit of an understatement. So what happens when the cycle accelerates faster than usual?

    The flame that burns twice as bright burns half as long.

  93. Fleet St. doesn’t pass the smell test imo. Anyone have any insight into what happened there? Furious bidding war perhaps?

  94. ASh:

    And go on to spend a much bigger chunk of their lives in their cars rather than walking/biking to get around…no thanks. Broadmead is a great area but given the choice between there and Oaklands, Oaklands wins hands down for my personal situation (regular commuting to downtown, walk-ability to schools, other activities etc. being important).

    For me Broadmead would be great. Broadmead village has pretty much everything I need (liquor, coffee, groceries, bank). Lochside school is walking distance. There’s the nice Rithet’s trail and of course the Lochside trail. It’s pretty easy to walk across Blenkinsop if you want to hike up Mt Doug. Root Cellar is just a quick cycle down the Lochside trail.

    Can’t easily get downtown via a bus or foot, but a $20 taxi ride solves that for the rare occasion we go out.

    Of course I don’t commute downtown anymore. If I did I’d probably want to be in Fernwood, Oaklands etc.

  95. Why couldn’t this have been a normal recovery…

    Seems fairly normal, other than maybe a bit hot out of the gates. This current spike should lead to a mid-cycle lull in about a year.

  96. Some home owners in Fernwood and Oaklands can sell their overly inflated home and move up the property ladder to an executive style Broadmead home at a reasonable cost.

    And go on to spend a much bigger chunk of their lives in their cars rather than walking/biking to get around…no thanks. Broadmead is a great area but given the choice between there and Oaklands, Oaklands wins hands down for my personal situation (regular commuting to downtown, walk-ability to schools, other activities etc. being important). Of course, this could change for me post-retirement, at which point broadmead/ Cordova bay start to look pretty appealing.

  97. ” My friends house on Henderson sold for over a million to a student! ”

    More signs the 15% foreign tax needs to come in ASAP. I wonder how many mortgages to foreign students are really on the books that were done to get the sale ? Tens of thousands I’m sure.

    Bearkilla celebrates road kill on the highway so not surprised he’s cheering on the imminent implosion of people’s life savings.

  98. Hardly something to rejoice. This is seriously messed up when crappy houses that should be for young families getting a start, or scrappy folks who don’t mow the lawn and like to work on cars in the front yard are selling for luxury prices. I get OB and Fairfiled. Nice established neighbourhoods with nice new and old character homes in walkable neighbourhoods with sidewalks and tree lined streets. But this? It’s not adding up on any front and will cause bad sht to happen if it doesn’t right itself soon…. Hyper inflation is one…. Government meddling is another….Boom bust extremes is another. Why couldn’t this have been a normal recovery…..

  99. Here’s one that will depress the bears. 1575 BRODICK CRES 950k for an original 1980s 2200 sq ft box. This market is going to the moon bears.

  100. UVic NEEDS to start building res. They should be forced to somehow. That alone would help cool the market in this area. It would also reduce traffic congestion. It’s odd because it would also be a money maker for them in the long run.
    I think you are right bingo. My friends house on Henderson sold for over a million to a student! Anyone that did that four years ago had their education paid for and a few hundred grand extra at graduation….

  101. The differences in neighborhood prices are distorted from what they have been historically. But that is an opportunity for some home owners.

    Some home owners in Fernwood and Oaklands can sell their overly inflated home and move up the property ladder to an executive style Broadmead home at a reasonable cost.

    This distortion of neighborhood values is another sign of a changing market.

  102. US just jacked up the rates a quarter point as expected. With several more to come this year and banks being exposed as ponzi scheme players the writing is on the wall.

    Our so called conservative banks of Canada now being labeled internationally assisters of fraud will now be scrutinized like never before and could be the catalyst to this pig blowing up much faster.

    Agreed James, when the bulls question things you know the jig is up.

  103. Luke, based on our Vancouver experience, I was also suspecting that it’s not local money and there may not be any mortgage. If you look at how unaffordability spread in Van, it started just east of UBC and North Burnaby was also quickly affected around SFU.

    To tell you the truth, that’s why since around 2012 I’ve thought the whole Victoria/OB/Saanich area east of Shelbourne was going to go high with UVic, St Michael’s, and Camosun.

  104. Obviously I’m being a bit hyperbolic. But this is insane.

    1.1 million gives you a lot of options in GVic. A box in GH is no where near the top of my list. I just can’t wrap my head around how GH can command those prices.. but for the same price you can get a nice house in Broadmead or even a cool little character house in OB or how about a decent 90s place near Claremont.

    Fleet isn’t even GH proper, it’s Lambrick park (don’t tell the buyer.. they’ll be crushed).

    I just can’t wrap my head around it.

    Part of me says, “This can’t continue.” But another part of me knows better.

    In reality it’ll probably spread more, starting with the rest of Saanich east. Swan lake is still comparably cheap. Most of Saanich West is still (comparably) reasonable. Royal Oak is getting pricey and it’s starting to spill into Glanford and Strawberry Vale but it’s not crazy (yet). I’m not calling top until we see the grittier areas of Tillicum going for top dollar.

    If we see a million dollar sale on Sims it’s all over. You read it here first.

  105. http://www.bnn.ca/chinese-buyers-cite-education-as-biggest-motivation-for-buying-canadian-real-estate-study-finds-1.689120

    Does this article help explain Fleet St ? It’s incredibly close to UVic – walking distance. I guess if more GH crap boxes start selling for these ridiculous levels we can see if it’s a new trend or just a blip of particular people that overpaid, by at least $200k compared to what other GH crap boxes have been selling for recently .

    My guess is it was Asian parents buying it for their little darlings to live in while they attend UVic. They may be so wealthy as to think of overpaying by that much as nothing. Increasingly, the wealthy 1% of Chinese (15 million people) are able to make vast sums of money that blow the wealthiest Canadians out of the water, without restrictions plaguing Canadians or other westerner’s, like high taxation and regulations. Speculation, but a good guess that’s who it was.

    Maybe they should’ve looked into the University of Manitoba or Dalhousie U instead…
    http://www.bnn.ca/what-1-million-can-buy-in-housing-markets-across-canada-1.688542

  106. The bank fraud will be something to watch. Completely unethical behaviour loading debt and questionable investments onto people. Garth is definitely right that the friendly advisor at the bank is not your friend. They are the enemy of your personal wealth and always will be.

    How to reach those people that continue to fall into the trap of going to their bank to make investment decisions? Maybe the industry trust will just collapse on its own, but I’m not hopeful. Ashley Madison was hacked and it exposed how wildly unethical that company was. Didn’t make a dent in their memberships and in fact boosted them.

  107. It’s starting to sound like even the Bulls on this blog are thinking that this market is ludicrous.

  108. I’m just catching up here.. but WTF, Fleet for 1.1 and 996 Amblewood goes for 1.07?!

    Is this the twilight zone?

    Yes, I realise Fleet has a suite for all those aspiring slum lords.. but it’s an 80s spec house complete with plenty of original 80s spec house “charm” (the cabinets, the light fixtures, the baseboard heaters…. all 80s spec house grade). The upgrades consist of $0.99 laminate flooring and some equally classy tile. It has vinyl siding! Someone paid over a million for a place with vinyl siding.

    How is some crappy 80s box in GH worth more than a west coast style house on 15K sqft in Broadmead?!

    I’m with Hawk… the end is nigh. Million dollar GH boxes will soon be selling for the price of a used shoe box from Payless. You won’t be able to give them away.

  109. This is positive to see the confessional booth over flowing. Some bank workers have a conscience while they push people further into debt for the sake of saving their job.

    No wonder all the POS houses are going for $200K to $300K over assesment/asking prices.

    ‘We are all doing it’: Employees at Canada’s 5 big banks speak out about pressure to dupe customers

    Employees from all five of Canada’s big banks have flooded Go Public with stories of how they feel pressured to upsell, trick and even lie to customers to meet unrealistic sales targets and keep their jobs.

    The deluge is fuelling multiple calls for a parliamentary inquiry, even as the banks claim they’re acting in customers’ best interests.

    In nearly 1,000 emails, employees from RBC, BMO, CIBC, TD and Scotiabank locations across Canada describe the pressures to hit targets that are monitored weekly, daily and in some cases hourly.

    “Management is down your throat all the time,” said a Scotiabank financial adviser. “They want you to hit your numbers and it doesn’t matter how.”

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/banks-upselling-go-public-1.4023575?cmp=rss

  110. Debt bomb keeps on ticking.

    Household debt hits fresh record, with Canadians owing $2 trillion by the end of 2016

    OTTAWA — Canadian household debt as a share of income rose to a fresh record in the fourth quarter, data from Statistics Canada showed on Wednesday in a report likely to underscore concerns consumers are becoming overly indebted.

    http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/debt/household-debt-creeps-up-to-a-fresh-record-with-canadians-owing-2-trillion-by-the-end-of-2016

  111. What’s behind this? Ummm, how about massive debt rolled back into mortgages handcuffing any property kings from moving up the ladder.

    The banks have clearly been facilitating this ponzi scheme for years “for the sale” but the blind refuse to believe the obvious because of some Stats Can mirage.

    This is the point where bubbles implode as the last of the FOMO get sucked down the rabbit hole.

    https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/842005238529773568/photo/1

  112. @ Richard. It is odd that the shortage of listings is extending to so many places. New listings were just fine in Victoria and the same as the last few years up until January. Then they dropped in February. Same in Vancouver, huge drop in new listings in February. And Calgary too?
    What’s behind this?

  113. I am becoming more and more convinced that the Federal Government’s onerous new mortgage qualification rules are actually driving UP prices as home owners are AFRAID to sell as they would not qualify for even the home they’re in never mind an improvement.

    In all of Calgary there are only 2100 SFD for sale.
    Currently, monthly sales to listings is at 70%.
    At that rate by the end of the month our MOI in the SFD category will be less than 2 months.
    All the above in an economy of almost 10% unemployment, UNBELIEVABLE. The SFD average sale price is up to $570K.

  114. “looks like 1493 eric sold for 1.113 million not 861k”

    Thanks. Time to adjust the max price on my PCS account I think.

  115. @AH is correct. Listed $987,800, sold $1,113,888 after 5 days.

    $861k would certainly have been a notable sale!

  116. Hawk, Oaklands has been on quite a tear these last few weeks. Which is why I too was surprised by the drop on Empire. Looks like it has some charm, and despite the noise from Cook and the waft of grease coming up from Haultain fish and chips, the city views should be attracting some buyers. But then one realizes it’s actually a half duplex with limited outdoor space. Oh and it’s not totally clear but I think it’s just one bedroom, with a two bed suite in the basement? Yeah if they get anywhere near 680k for this I’d s$it a brick!

  117. I’m guessing it will be TD who approves the mortgage for 3957 Fleet. This one easily earns sucker of the month award.

  118. Yeah the condo sales are coming in fast and furious. They seem to go routinely over ask now.
    404 – 1234 Fort Street for 375k, 25k above asking and 21% above assessed. A lot of $$ for an older condo.

    Then again, how much more expensive are these places from say 2010 when you factor in lower rates and higher incomes? Probably not much if at all.

  119. “What I don’t quite understand is how one can make the ROI work on an I of $1.1M”

    You must have missed the Seinfeld episode where Kramer rents out his dresser drawers for the Asian tourists. I’m sure it’s getting popular again. 😉

  120. 1501 Cranbrook Pl slashed $25,000 in prime Cedar Hill. Looks like the suckers can’t see the forest from the trees. Prices getting whacked in the hot areas says the Titanic has hit the berg and taking on water.

  121. “We’ll take care of you in multiple offer situations.”

    Sounds like when the dentist says this won’t hurt….much.

  122. “Lol, I figured Hawk would get sucked into buying AUP shares at their share offering yesterday Don’t worry, I’ll buy them back from you around $8 again.”

    Hilarious Mike, I told you it was blow off top hockey stick ready to tank. Can you not read ? I feel bad for your victims.

    Just like the sheep getting taken to the woodshed paying idiotic money to live in average hoods of 70′ s boxes in Golden Head. A sea of regret is coming like a tsunami.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x04Vpbex1vw

  123. Listening to CFAX while cleaning the kitchen just now I heard an ad for Fair Realty in which the narrator said, regarding looking for a house, “We’ll take care of you in multiple offer situations.”

    I wonder what that “care” would look like.

  124. Fleet St. makes no sense – only one house off McKenzie and a 3 storey apt. (student housing?) building behind!

    I bet an investor picked it up and plans to stuff it full of UVic students. This map shows where this scenario is not uncommon based on my observations:

    What I don’t quite understand is how one can make the ROI work on an I of $1.1M.

  125. Fleet St. makes no sense – only one house off McKenzie and a 3 storey apt. (student housing?) building behind!

    Here’s another sale today: 64 San Jose in James Bay went $48k under asking for $1,150k. 2007 build, period features and quality house, decent sized lot for James Bay standards, separate garage and only a short walk to Dallas Rd – unlike much of James Bay it does not have any apartment buildings or towers nearby. I would have much rather had this one for only $50k more than the crap box on Fleet St!

  126. Actually fleet street looks pretty good if you’re into the 1980s decor I guess and like a entire backyard vegetable patch. Ok yeah it’s a shitbox. Remember though bears this is just the start of the spring season. If you think you’ll never get in now just wait until June. This really is the best timeline.

  127. Yeah, condos do seem to be overheating, like a unit at 405 quebec went more than 20% over ask, 25% over assess (older unit, ~1000ft).

  128. “And this just showed up a few minutes ago. $250,000 over asking.

    3957 Fleet St

    List price: $850,000
    Sale price: $1,100,000
    DOM: 7”

    …And I thought 1805 Eric was bad at $861,500.

    $1.1 million for that house on that street? That is f*cked.

  129. As far as finishing goes we could take another cue from the Netherlands. They sell units totally unfinished. Then you can even do it yourself like my steps did. More row houses built around communal space is the ticket.

  130. Lol, I figured Hawk would get sucked into buying AUP shares at their share offering yesterday 🙂 Don’t worry, I’ll buy them back from you around $8 again.

  131. Condos downtown are getting to be a little nuts….a 1 bedroom at the Hudson just went for $425,000 and it was purchased in 2013 for $295,000. 44% jump.

  132. And this just showed up a few minutes ago. $250,000 over asking.

    3957 Fleet St

    List price: $850,000
    Sale price: $1,100,000
    DOM: 7

    Don’t you love spring?

  133. And a decrepit Hawk will be on the virtual reality HHV blog telling us that the big crash is just around the corner.

    Amen to Hawk. He’s to this forum what Satan is to the Christian Church. Keeps it in business, keeps it interesting, and provides endless fodder for, and opposition to, the evangelicals.

    Now I understand why he will only meet in darkened alleys…”Come to the dark side”, they say.

  134. Some were discussing Boulderwood Drive awhile back and the great sales. 4623 Boulderwood Dr just had to slash over $100K . The lucky 8’s didn’t work. Peak Broadmead too ? 😉

  135. Jeez, here’s what nearly a million bucks gets you in Gordon Head these days:

    1850 Fairburn Dr

    Just an OK street. Quite close to UVic. Built in 1955. I guess it’s the 3,000 square feet that did it?

    List price: $838,000
    Sale price: $938,000
    DOM: 5

    Goodness gracious.

  136. 2584 Empire St looks like it relisted and reduced the price $9000. I thought Oaklands was so hot everyone was paying $300K over assessment ? Looks like Peak Oaklands.

  137. Here’s my long term prediction:

    50 years from now, Oak Bay will still have roughly the same number of people that it does now. There will be very few new apartment buildings. Most of the zoning will be identical to today. And a decrepit Hawk will be on the virtual reality HHV blog telling us that the big crash is just around the corner.

  138. Any “help” you get from them is entirely incidental to their underlying purpose.

    Precisely.

    All it needs is the political will to be aggressive about rezoning.

    That’s all, eh? Just that thing that will never happen.

  139. Survey Certificate

    There is no certificate for the our house, we just used the title insurance. How important to have an up to date survey certificate? Posting plan and disbursements will cost $3k.

    Any thoughts on this?

  140. No wonder all the foreigners love to come here,they can do what they want and rarely get caught or punished.

    US rates Canada once again as a “major money laundering country” in annual drug report

    What’s new in 2017 INCSR for Canada compared to 2016 report

    Money laundering from tax evasion & corruption; lax conviction rate

    According to the Report this year, money laundering in Canada is originating from tax evasion, corruption, as well as the usual drug trafficking, fraud, and such. And the main methods of money laundering have shifted to include Bitcoin, offshore corporations, bulk cash smuggling, money services businesses and real estate.

    The Report mentions the exemption of lawyers as a deficiency in the anti-money laundering regime.

    The Report says Canada should enhance enforcement and convictions for money laundering.

    China

    A lot was changed about China in relation to Canada this year in the Report, curiously. However, this year’s report says that the main source of proceeds of crime from China is from corruption involving state-owned enterprise and that criminals are laundering money mostly by bulk cash smuggling, fake large international trade invoices (trade-based money laundering), gambling and real estate.

    http://www.antimoneylaunderinglaw.com/2017/03/us-rates-canada-once-again-as-a-major-money-laundering-country-in-annual-report.html

  141. Hope no one bought Mike’s hot stock tip yesterday, it’s down 25% today. Ouch ! Another blow off top chart as I called it.

  142. VicRenter, I don’t know much about Quadra school except that it has French immersion which is always great. Personally I think high school matters more in exposing kids to the best experiences, eg., I’ll never forget a journalism course I took in junior high about bias.

    This builder’s site for some reason has info on the different schools:
    http://www.alairhomes.ca/victoria/blog/victorias-best-elementary-schools/

    also this City of Vic page has great info on the different neighbourhoods (but profiles use 2011 data)
    http://www.victoria.ca/EN/main/residents/neighbourhoods.html

  143. Any thoughts about or experience with Quadra Elementary?

    No first hand experience, but two friends have kids attending (all in French immersion). They have no major complaints (K-3 so far) except one kid had a pretty mediocre teacher one year (this is a risk at every public and private school)

  144. The land shortage is a myth. Look around Victoria minutes from downtown. Vast swaths of single family and low density single story strip mall / light industry. All it needs is the political will to be aggressive about rezoning.

    This. And the supply issue argument.

    I read this best summarized earlier today, “We don’t have a supply issue, we have a demand issue.”

    New construction is geared towards foreign buyers, speculators, and units zoned for transient occupancy (investors). I don’t know the numbers, but construction probably isn’t far off of population growth. The problem is, a vast amount of the construction isn’t for people that live here.

  145. Shame on city hall, they are really screwing up the city and making it difficult for people to raise a family here. We don’t have to become another Vancouver. We could just say No and bring families back to our city.

    Personally I think all of the above should happen. More buildings large and small. SFH to townhouses, duplexes, and low rises, and a mix of microcondos and larger units in condos. It would also be nice to have some developments without the super high end finishes at a lower price. What’s with every development having Bosh this and quartz that? I think there is room for more affordable units.
    The land shortage is a myth. Look around Victoria minutes from downtown. Vast swaths of single family and low density single story strip mall / light industry. All it needs is the political will to be aggressive about rezoning.

  146. Four rate hikes this year ? That will kill this insanity in a hurry. The banks will be well ahead of the game when it comes to tightening credit lending and reducing their risk.

    Fed, in shift, may move to faster pace of rate hikes

    And with inflation showing signs of perking up, Fed policymakers may signal there could be more than the three rate rises they have forecast for this year.

    “They do not have as much room to be patient as they did before,” said Tim Duy, an economics professor at the University of Oregon, who expects Fed policymakers to lift their rate forecasts this week.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-inflation-analysis-idUSKBN16L0E3?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

  147. Potential prickly topic / off topic: Any thoughts about or experience with Quadra Elementary?

  148. The three-bedroom condominium on Cedar Hill has an age restriction of 18 and older. These would be a solution to our family housing problem. However developers are not willing to build large 3-bedrooom suites as they are not profitable due to the high cost of land.

    As a developer you are limited in what you can pay for land by what you are allowed to build on the lot. If City Hall changed the zoning to make every new condominium complex have a percentage of large three-bedroom suites then ALL of the developers could not pay the current price for land and the land cost would drop to where the project is once more economically viable.

    City hall can manage the land base better to promote family housing. But instead they seem to be moving towards smaller and smaller suites that are best suited as hotel rooms. If you let the developers have their way, they would be building suites the size of a walk in closet and selling them all to investors as vacation rentals. And that would not be helping either our vacancy or affordability problems. Basically what we have been doing for the last decade.

    Shame on city hall, they are really screwing up the city and making it difficult for people to raise a family here. We don’t have to become another Vancouver. We could just say No and bring families back to our city.

    We could also have the Province eliminate the home owners grant for condominium complexes that age discriminate.

  149. No, TD is in the profit business, and will use whatever legal (and occasionally illegal) means necessary to achieve its profit goals.

    Completely agree. No matter how friendly they may seem, they are about the furthest thing from a friend you have. Any “help” you get from them is entirely incidental to their underlying purpose.

    Reminds me of that new Macleans article – the banks care about the housing bubble, but not enough to do anything about it. You and I pick up the mess when the wheels come off the train. Sounds vaguely parasitic to me..

  150. TD Bank allegations raise ‘serious concerns,’ says banking ombudsman

    http://www.timescolonist.com/td-bank-allegations-raise-serious-concerns-says-banking-ombudsman-1.11689645

    One reason I don’t invest in the stock market in general—and certainly not in big banks.

    … current and former employees at TD alleged they broke the law to meet sales targets in order to stay employed. In some instances, unnamed employees claim to have made unauthorized transactions on behalf of clients

    “TD is in the trust business …”

    No, TD is in the profit business, and will use whatever legal (and occasionally illegal) means necessary to achieve its profit goals.

  151. I agree with you Leo S. Although, I skipped parts of what he was saying, I did listen to the sections you wrote about.

    I would say the readers of this blog are getting better information and a more balanced view than listening to Ross Kay.

  152. Mentality creates bubbles and mentality pops them. They are not tied to fundamentals, by their very nature.

  153. To be fair, I do think he is correct in the final argument where he says that what pops bubbles is affordability. When there is no more capital and no more borrowing power house prices peak and start to turn downwards.

  154. More on Ross Kay. He says rising interest rates don’t pop housing bubbles as evidenced by the increase in prices in the last several years. His argument is that the increase in prices has the equivalent effect on mortgage payments as a 2% increase in interest rates and the bubble didn’t burst. This interest rates don’t burst bubbles.

    This argument is nonsense of course. Rising prices only increase the monthly costs of new buyers, while increasing interest rates increase the costs of all owners with a mortgage at renewal. Totally different.

  155. @Andy

    As usual I don’t find Ross Kay very convincing. He says the foreign buyer tax did nothing and foreign buyers were down before the tax, but all the evidence is to the contrary.
    Also he says the BC Liberals will be blamed at the polls for the fall in Vancouver housing prices, but I see no evidence of that in the media. If anything it’s still the opposite and if there is anger it’s about high prices and lack of affordability not low ones.

    He also says foreign buyers are not a factor and to impact the market it would need to be 20% of the market. I don’t think he understands the difference in impact between a foreign and local buyer.

  156. “HOME PRICES UP 1.0% IN FEBRUARY

    In February, the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ was up 1.0% from the previous month, the largest February increase in the 18-year history of the Index. This increase of unusual magnitude for the season is attributable to three of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed: Toronto (+1.9%), Hamilton (+1.4%) and Vancouver (+1.4%). The Toronto and Hamilton rises were also records for February; Vancouver prices had risen even more in February 2016. The increase for Ottawa-Gatineau was also strong at 0.9%, even if below the countrywide average. These four markets stood in striking contrast to the other seven markets surveyed, all down on the month: Victoria (−0.1%), Montreal (−0.2%), Edmonton (−0.5%), Winnipeg (−0.5%), Quebec City (−0.9%), Calgary (−1.3%) and Halifax (−1.9%). The declines ended upside runs of 10 months in Victoria, five months in Calgary and four months in Quebec City. For Winnipeg it was the fourth straight monthly decline. The index for Toronto has risen in each of the last 13 months, the index for Hamilton in each of the last 12 months.”

    http://www.housepriceindex.ca

  157. Leo – by your own data, we would need MOI of more than 4 or 5 before there is any precedent for declining prices. I guess we’ll cross that bridge someday, but no sign of it yet.

    Last time we were at those levels (2014), prices were rising slowly but steadily.

  158. How about a new market summary the January optimism at the top of the page seems to be falling out of step now?

    Sorry that was actually February, forgot to update the heading.

    As for whether there is less reason to be optimistic, I’m not so sure. Yes we are off the sales highs but I believe that is primarily due to inventory constraints. Once I see MOI trending upward that would be a better indicator of a weakening market.

  159. Richard, that’s what investors used to do up till the 90s – invested in purpose-built rental buildings, either on their own or with partners. At least it’s starting again now.

    Part of the reason why we have rental shortages is because we’re no longer building these types of apartments. It started in the 90s in Victoria with all the condo developments. It’s become kind of an endless loop or self-fulfilling prophecy of developers saying they’ll fill a market need for condo buyers, and then investors buying up too high a % of the developments, so then you’re still left with rising prices, and not enough condos for individuals or families that want to buy. Then those buyers are left longer renting.

    Here are some stories of investors trying to add to the rental pool with buildings:
    http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/building-owners-look-to-add-hundreds-of-new-rental-units-in-victoria-area-1.2347001

    http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/11-storey-rental-building-ok-d-for-uptown-tallest-in-saanich-1.2374829

  160. Wowa John Dollar! Who can afford to buy apartment, commercial or industrial buildings? Only a very few individuals and I have no interest in being part of a consortium or shares or whatever. Besides what’s wrong with being a landlord and providing rental suites on a small scale?
    As to the Capital gains the new rules of reporting ALL residential sales on one’s Income Tax return is going to catch a lot of people who don’t actually realize that what they think is Capital gains is actually Business gains and they will be paying tax on 100% of profits, so “flippers” beware and those that play the system by selling to family and relatives.

  161. No kidding Introvert! I actually looked for an investment/retirement property on the East coast before I decided to switch coasts. I went to university in N.S. and I guess when you’re young one doesn’t notice things such as wind. I gave up looking because of the incessant winds, thank God!

  162. A slow progress to a normal cap gain is fair. Also, this doesn’t apply to primary residence so it wouldn’t impact movers.

    I like my transparency rule better though. No more blind auctions and secret bids. The bids should be public minus personal info. Developments need to have open books. Simple and not a new tax.

  163. Richard:

    TallGuy, excellent idea on the Capital gains. However I think 5 years is a little too onerous, how about 3 years? An aweful lot of unplanned things can happen in a persons life in 5 years. If you want to curtail the “flippers” 3 years would easily take care of that.

    I don’t see why they can’t allow some exemptions such as got laid off, moved for a new job, death of spouse…as long you have the appropriate paper work. Personally, I like the idea of a longer timeline. If it’s too short then it won’t do enough to fix the problem that we have now.

  164. I’m not sure what you are saying John Dollar. There already is a Capital Gains Tax on a non primary residence,

    I mean ALL of it not just 50% of the gain. 100% of the gain would be taxable.
    If JT announced that the all of the gain would be taxable effective December 31, 2017. Would you still keep your rental houses and condos? Or would you liquidate now.

    If you want rental properties buy apartment buildings, commercial or industrial properties. Amassing multiple houses and condos properties by one person only leads to a shortage for buyers.

  165. gwac, good to see the doc got you the prozac. No use getting out of joint defending price slashes because it’s $100K over assessment when the loonies are paying $300K to live by the social housing complex.

  166. I’m not sure what you are saying John Dollar. There already is a Capital Gains Tax on a non primary residence, albeit Federal. Perhaps Provinces should get a bigger take from that tax. Increase that tax any more and I for one won’t be selling my non primary residence but keep on renting it. The purpose of Harper lowering the Capital Gains Tax was to encourage people to sell their investment/rental properties which it did. The more listings the better and freeing up capilal is good for the economy.

  167. BC should have its own capital gains tax on non primary residences. All Christy would have to do is announce such a plan to come into effect after the election and watch the listings balloon.

    Eventually this has to happen. The gain on investment properties will have to be fully taxed. If JT doesn’t do it, then Christy should. It is just a windfall of revenue for the province and Canada.

  168. Nan:

    One of the forces that government has to deal with is capital shifts out of the country if they attempt to over regulate interest rates. The economics of it are both difficult and complicated. The politics of it is that governements tend to take a very short run view of it.

  169. Hi Hawk and other doomsayers hope you are well.

    Feeling much more calm not getting agitated from the posts. How long can I keep it up???

  170. Increased foreign buying in Victoria is not over and could escalate when Toronto implements some sort of tax. I don’t think anyone can even remotely talk about supply when the speculation is brought on by outside influences. More supply just equals more buying. It’s simple.
    Foreign buying is not new, obviously. But we have a new global paradigm that we shouldn’t ignore. Capital migration from China is at an all time high, and despite measures from the Chinese government to reign this in, there are still ways around this. United States is doing well again and a house up on the west coast of Canada is currently on a 30% sale, so buying a vacation home that mostly sits vacant is less of a stretch.
    Foreign money in our economy is a good thing, I get it. But when there is a housing crisis (like in Vancouver), or a huge shift in affordability for local taxpayers, it is our elected officials job to step in and protect this asset from wide speculation. This not only for the local taxpayer, but also for the risk of locals equity in their homes.
    This article shows some smarter ways of dealing with this rather than Christy’s tax for optics purposes.
    http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-a-smarter-tax-would-ease-vancouvers-housing-crisis

  171. Increase the capital gains exemption to 5 years and scale it accordingly.

    Agreed and Dasmo’s suggested implementation sounds reasonable.

    It still sucks if you are a family forced to relocate on short notice, but if you are someone in that position maybe it’s best to think twice about buying.

    It would have affected us moving up from a condo since we sold about 2 years after buying, but our gain was minimal. We definitely would have made the move anyhow.

    One interesting thing the US does is a withholding tax on transfer of title. Due to tax treaty stuff and the allowable capital gains exemption us mere mortals would generally get 100% of it back (gains on a normal house wouldn’t be sufficient to trigger tax), but it forces the seller to file if they wish to recover those funds.

  172. TallGuy, excellent idea on the Capital gains. However I think 5 years is a little too onerous, how about 3 years? An aweful lot of unplanned things can happen in a persons life in 5 years. If you want to curtail the “flippers” 3 years would easily take care of that.

  173. A cap gains tax that is time based is a clever one. Year one, it’s 100% added to income. Every year it goes down by 10% increments so after five years it’s the usual. That’s a good one!

  174. “The party line has been three rate hikes, and some people on the street are saying it could even be four,” Laird said.”

    bizznitch,
    Don’t forget when rates go up, banks tighten credit lending, stress test levels go up, less people qualify for the new place or even the move up, especially if they are carrying personal debt from being the property king.

    Everything changes in a rising mortgage rate market, mainly downward pressure on prices with fewer qualifiers. Watch the media tune change over the next few months.

  175. Their needs to be a way to limit speculation in the market.

    Increase the capital gains exemption to 5 years and scale it accordingly.

  176. “A group of kool aid drinking realtors could certainly materially augment 200 to 400 if enough of them were motivated. This might have explained some of those ridiculous bully bids on absolute crap last year? Who knows.”

    nan,
    Just like the broker pumping the hot stock he just bought into, but at a 20% or more discount that he then flogs to his sucker clients. Another sign of a market top when the agent puts the story out there to “friends”.

  177. “I guarantee you once the “bully offer” becomes standard practice there will be “bully offer” bidding wars. ”

    Another sign of lack of experience , education and intelligence to think what is now, will always be in a bubble market about to blow. Why should we be surprised though.

    Lost track of all the price slashes on the Westshore the last few weeks. I see 50 odd ones at a glance. Sucks if you own a slumlord shack or two when the nice ones have to be slashed.

  178. @ Barrister – agreed, but my point was more along the lines of what I feel people value most in relation to politics.

    All things being equal, I would be much more forgiving of a political party that worked to let me keep my house while making $USD consumables more expensive than vice versa. Although a lot of consumption is denominated in $USD, almost all Canadian debt is denominated in $CAD.

    In my mind on the extremes,

    Higher exports + more jobs + low interest rates + expensive $USD consumptions = slightly grumpy Canadians that become less grumpy as nominal house prices keep going up.

    Lower exports + fewer jobs + higher interest rates & mortgage default rates with cheaper $USD consumption on the side = much closer to viva la revolution!

    I’m not an economist but on this observation alone, it makes sense that the government will not be too worried about US interest rates going up for a while if maintaining rate parity makes $CAD debt harder to pay off and lowers Canadian employment rates.

    Maybe they can’t control it but it seems to me that they will do whatever they can?

  179. There are limits to how much control governments have over interest rates. Unfortunately it is not just the price of TVs that are affected but virtually most of the goods that we buy. it is not as if we have a large domestic manufacturing sector. The purchasing power of the average Canadian family has been more diminished than people think.

  180. So what does the media mean when they say it is a “hot” market.

    Generally they are referring to the time it takes to sell a house and not the price.

    And for houses in Saanich East, Victoria and Oak Bay the market is very hot by that standard.

    Month Days to Sell, Median Days to Sell, Average
    Apr 2016 8 18
    May 2016 9 20
    Jun 2016 9 16
    Jul 2016 9 15
    Aug 2016 8 16
    Sep 2016 11 24
    Oct 2016 10 22
    Nov 2016 14 31
    Dec 2016 17 29
    Jan 2017 8 26
    Feb 2017 8 23
    Mar 2017 9 14

    But take that data with a grain of salt, since in a blind auction the agent puts a limit on the days on market of say 7 days to view and make an offer.

    That really screws up this metric.

  181. I guarantee you once the “bully offer” becomes standard practice there will be “bully offer” bidding wars. I’d say those will enter the market here in April which means the press will report on it by May.

  182. FYI

    A “bully offer” is an offer that is submitted before the designated and planned “offer day” for a listing that is “holding back” offers.

    If a property is listed on April 8th, and the MLS notes specify, “Offers will be reviewed on Tuesday, April 16th at 7:00pm, please register by 6pm,” and you don’t want to play by the rules, and don’t want to wait, you can submit a “bully offer” any time before that.

    What is the point of a bully offer? Simple.

    If you’re a buyer, you’re trying to get the property for less than it would sell on offer night.

    If you’re a seller, you’re accepting an offer that you believe would be higher than the best offer on offer night.

  183. “It’s never different here”

    Yes, but it can stay “weird” for a long time. as we’ve seen.

    I was talking to my FOREX guy last week and he mentioned that he felt that at least three US interest rate increases are already priced into the exchange rate. If Canada doesn’t increase interest rates, I would expect the currency to drop further (which is good for Canadians) but probably not for a while. Ultimately, a low dollar and tons of exports help Canadians keep more jobs and pay huge mortgages, so that’s a plus while also keeping interest rates low to keep the party going. Sure you’re TV and vacation cost more but at least you don’t lose your house (or vote for a different party)

    On Victoria real estate, I heard through the grape vine over the weekend that at least one popular realtor in the city had been getting regular interest last year from Vancouver Realtors looking to speculate in Victoria, probably looking to front run the interest they were receiving from their clients.

    There are 14,000 Realtors in Vancouver and the YoY sales increase was maybe 400 units, correct? A group of kool aid drinking realtors could certainly materially augment 200 to 400 if enough of them were motivated. This might have explained some of those ridiculous bully bids on absolute crap last year? Who knows.

  184. Dasmo:

    Large parts of the inner core are not luxury homes by any stretch of the imagination. Vic West, Fernwood and View Royal are still rather affordable. The city has grown and the inner core has gotten more expensive. It happens with every city as it grows. Langford and Calwood both have very affordable housing and , like it or not, they are now part of the Greater Victoria. Langford is a lot closer to the core than many parts of Toronto. Perhaps we should blame all the idiots that were sending out photos of the flower count to their friends in Edmonton.

  185. Their needs to be a way to limit speculation in the market. This, and it needs more variety. I’ve said it a million times, luxury homes and microlofts are not working out. Even the townhouse components in condo developments are simply framed to be the luxury units. We need more community creating developments.
    I would like to see a transparency law in regards to real estate. Residential developments need to publish their financials like a public company does.
    No more blind auctions. All offers are public and and available to the public minus personal information.

  186. My guess is that increase in foreign investment is being mostly funneled into condominium purchases since condominium sales now make up close to 60% of sales in the core.

  187. I think with the pending US rate increases this year (and next), it would be insane to get super over-leveraged on an overpriced tear-down in Victoria (or elsewhere). When the US rates rise, they will rise here. It’s never different here

    http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/mortgage-expert-warns-u-s-fed-will-cause-rate-increases-in-canada-1.3322093

    BC needs to follow Toronto’s lead… http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/foreign-buyer-tax-alone-won-t-fix-toronto-housing-crisis-report-1.3322547

  188. Did you catch what Helps said about the foreign buyer tax over the weekend:

    http://www.inews880.com/syn/112/283509/renewed-interest-in-foreign-buyers-tax-for-Victoria
    “Toronto, Victoria, and Vancouver are the hottest real estate markets in the country. And if two out of three of those have a tax, and the other one doesn’t, it takes away the level playing field. So I think it’s definitely something we’re going to need to watch.”

    “Foreign buyer activity rose 5.8 per cent in the capital region between last June and New Years.”

  189. How about a new market summary the January optimism at the top of the page seems to be falling out of step now?

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