Valentines Market Update

What’s been frowned upon is trolls using multiple names. I’ve got no problems with people changing names in general.

Convenient way for long time posters to dodge accountability for previous opinions offered as facts.

For you Marko,

https://youtu.be/VMANy15nYNM

Saw it first day 🙂 My favorite comedian.

Just Jack to the HHV blog: “I wish I knew how to quit you.”

“I guess Just Jack is some sort of V.I.P.”

I’m glad he’s back. Have always enjoyed reading his posts.

Very interesting meeting held the other day by the Standing Committee on Finance. President of the CMHC took quite a grilling from some politicians, but I do think it was an eye opening conversation about the state of the real estate market and associated consumer debt in Canada. For those of you who haven’t seen it and are interested, here is the link.

http://parlvu.parl.gc.ca/XRender/en/PowerBrowser/PowerBrowserV2/20170213/-1/26696?useragent=Mozilla/5.0%20(Macintosh;%20Intel%20Mac%20OS%20X%2010.9;%20rv:51.0)%20Gecko/20100101%20Firefox/51.0

Ah, it really is you JJ. The illogical approach is distinct.

It’s got to be. The comment with the YouTube clip clinched it. That and Leo’s refusal to answer my question.

I think it’s kind of pathetic that Leo feels the need to protect Just Jack and his identity hopping, a practice that has hitherto been frowned upon and called out on this blog. I guess Just Jack is some sort of V.I.P.

“I wonder what the ideal age is for owning a condo? Any ideas?”

Good question. Assuming maintenance costs are the deciding factor, you’d probably want to avoid amenities like an elevator, pool, sprinkler systems, etc. So maybe mid 70s built under Part 9 of the Building Code? Construction should be solid, and the walls won’t be hermetically sealed. Roof and balconies would be the major expenses.

Ah, it really is you JJ. The illogical approach is distinct.

Broadmead versus Gordon Head.

Completely arbitrary. Why not Broadmead vs. Oak Bay or Broadmead vs. Victoria? Or Broadmead vs. Royal Oak – that seems a more direct comparison?

A Broadmead property where they don’t allow suites is vastly superior in terms of beauty, house and lot size to that of Gordon Head.

Why not Broadmead and Oak Bay? I find Oak Bay vastly superior to Broadmead and you know what, it also has a higher cost per square foot likely because it is a more desirable area. And weird how Royal Oak is right next to Broadmead, has lots of suites, and it is less expensive than Broadmead!

Have you ever though that Broadmead, like Royal Oak, is cheaper per square foot for the house because it is further from the university and downtown and because it is not had as much densification? Heck I think Uplands is cheaper per square foot for some of those big old houses than the new builds in Oak Bay and certainly cheaper per square foot of land.

Also, overall, I don’t see a house in Broadmead being that much cheaper than Gordon Head, maybe more. Houses and land sizes are bigger but I buy based on what I can afford in the area I like, not what the cost per square foot of house or square foot of land is. A condo is cheaper than a house too but the square foot price might be much more! Imagine that.

CMHC regulations are a bit of a red hearing there Totoro. That’s something that you brought up to move the discussion. Because most likely CMHC financing is not being used on most of these sales.

The CMHC rules apply to anyone buying with less than 20% down. You’d be surprised to learn that 63% of first time buyers do not put 20% down. This is about 25% of the market and doesn’t count those that are not first time buyers who are also putting less than 20% down and buying a house with a suite. And among first time buyers in Vancouver even 25% of them are buying a SFH. Percent is likely higher here, especially with a legal suite. If I was a first-time buyer that is what I’d be looking for.
http://totalmortgage.ca/category/first-time-home-buyers/

Condo costs –

a couple of years ago I bought a 2 BR, 900 sqft condo at Mount Washington off of the rest of my extended family. I have tracked almost every penny I have spent on it since then. I have tracked expenses more diligently than I do with my house as I regard this as an extravagance vs my principal residence which I regard as an expensive necessity. Expenses per year have come in consistently at just below $7000. This includes absolutely everything (condo fees, tax, insurance, hydro, minor maintenance, new fridge). The condo fees are steep but they have enabled the strata corp to do a lot of preventative maintenance plus build up a pretty massive contingency. I assume condo living would be cheaper in the city where there aren’t costs like snow clearing. Also the severe weather up there takes a toll on the building envelope. Obviously some costs like hydro would be more if the unit were full time occupied.

Except for Afghanistan, Iraq, Nigeria, Ruanda to name but a few with more than twice the replacement rate.

Ok you win! When presented with that list of countries with high birth rates I can only agree that more babies will make Canada great again 🙂

Anyone know what 1217 May St sold for? asking $699. seems to have sold fast.

“Rather, I would have thought it was the decision not to enforce the abortion law…”

Staying off topic here, don’t you mean the decision to amend the Criminal Code, and legalize abortion (and other naughty things like the sale of contraception)?

CS, 68,000 women each year worldwide die from unsafe abortions, and 5 million each year suffer complications so they cannot have kids (legal abortions ensure safety for procedures that are inevitable). On top of that, a lot of kids starve when there are no parents around. So we’ve kept a lot of women & children alive in the western world with progressive health policies, and made it better for the men in their lives to support them financially or for basic sustenance (also better for all taxpayers who support healthcare). Otherwise you get conflict and wars fought over lack of land & resources.

Getting back to your original point, however, I;m concerned that we need to have enough employment for anyone coming to Canada, and balance that with our empathy towards those in need. If they don’t find jobs, everyone suffers, including the families that arrived for a better life.

CMHC regulations are a bit of a red hearing there Totoro. That’s something that you brought up to move the discussion. Because most likely CMHC financing is not being used on most of these sales.

I’ll stick with my original statement that areas with a high percentage of suites also have high prices. Broadmead versus Gordon Head. A Broadmead property where they don’t allow suites is vastly superior in terms of beauty, house and lot size to that of Gordon Head. Yet the median price in the executive neighborhood of Broadmead is around $320 per square foot compared to the boring middle income basement homes of Gordon Head at around $350 per square foot.

That’s two distinct neighborhoods from each other. One is executive housing the other is middle income. Yet one pays less on a price per square foot basis to live in Broadmead than Gordon Head.

Basement suites have driven up house prices in Gordon Head because more people can afford them.

@CS

I explicitly referred to the Canadian fertility rate.

So in your mind the drop in Canadian fertility rate was caused by PET while the simultaneous drop in every other country was caused by other factors? Occam’s razor says you are wrong.

As for the rest … let’s stick to the state of the Victoria real estate market.

Says the fellow ranting about the death of the West

@ Caveat emptor:

“I doubt the worldwide drop in fertility was caused by the election of Pierre Trudeau.”

Oh dear! Why is it that some people cannot understand the simplest statement in plain English if it contradicts the tenets of Political Correctness?

I explicitly referred to the Canadian fertility rate.

As for the rest … let’s stick to the state of the Victoria real estate market.

Google is your friend Leo.

One key issue will be whether the units are legal. CMHC only recognizes units that are legal or conform to local municipal standards. The Crown corporation says that it’s up to lenders to exercise judgment, when it comes to borrowers proving the units are legal.

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/cmhc-announces-new-rules-to-make-it-easier-for-homeowners-to-rent-out-property

Suites improve affordability but at the cost of higher house prices. One possible way to reduce house prices is to reduce or eliminate how much income may be used to qualify for a mortgage.

Illogical really. Suites increase the house price a bit, but not that much in HCOL areas where house prices are mostly land anyway. And most suites are illegal currently and the new CMHC rules that allow 100% of income to count apply only to legal suites.

The capital gains tax if applied to suites will mean some people will stop renting their suite out now as the tax is pro-rated per year of use. Why bother for the hassle when the return is only slightly more than the loss on the capital gain overall – less in a rising market, especially if the inclusion rate is raised. Get ready for vacancy rates to drop further.

We’ll still keep renting as we have a legal multi-family and were always going to have to pay capital gains on part of the profit – no way around it unless we convert to a SFH, but most people with basement suites who have some home equity and can meet their monthly obligations will probably be advised to rethink their rental by an accountant.

So you suggest we just die off, replacing ourselves with people from elsewhere in the process. Good God, the West really is doomed if that is the general view.

If you think Western Civilization is defined by your genetically inherited whiteness, then the “West” could be in trouble. I don’t buy that, instead I think our civilization and culture is defined by our ideas, values, laws, customs and tradition. Immigrants to Canada aren’t coming here to do away with our culture, they are coming to benefit from it and become part of it.

In any case low birthrates aren’t confined to the high income West. They are also prevalent in the former soviet union and Eastern Europe, East Asia, Southeast Asia and parts of the Middle East. It’s also falling most other places as well. Going back to your original post I doubt the worldwide drop in fertility was caused by the election of Pierre Trudeau.

So on 1287 Rockland Ave, which sold for $1,570k (I looked at this house last year when it was for sale for the $800’s) they made over $500k?! And, that’s after the cost of doing the renovations. Wow – was I ever out to lunch thinking they wouldn’t get that price… the market really is heading skyward! Now, if their closing date is after one year, and they lived in it – there’s no capital gains. Nice work if you can get it. The Gov’t might be putting people like this under the microscope now with the disclosure on the Income Tax form, but as far as I can tell you can still flip houses after you’ve lived in them for one year w/ no capital gains?

This is interesting: The reduction that I mentioned last week at 192 Bushby St – in that ultra desirable ‘hood just steps from Dallas Rd. They listed it first for $989k, then reduced to $948k – now it’s sold for $1,053k! I don’t think I’ve seen a tactic like that yet – reduce the price days after listing to get more offers over asking? Interesting.

So if Hawk is right and everything’s going to crash – maybe I should sell the house that I’ve now lived in for a year, bank $500k or so, and wait for it all to come crashing down… oh wait, I need somewhere to live… that’s what a house is supposed to be, right?

Keep those bike lanes coming finally my tax dollars going to something good.

@ Sweethome

“I would love to see this” [higher density along OB Avenue]

“but you would have to do something to the width of the Avenue because of the traffic.”

Or just eliminate private cars on the avenue to make way for a fleet of autonomous minibuses providing service both ways every 60 seconds or so.

All hail King Trump! 🙂
Who knows, if this keeps up perhaps stocks could steal some of RE’s mojo?

http://i.imgur.com/doOW7nT.png

We are also improving tax fairness by ensuring that the principal residence exemption is available only in appropriate cases, so that everybody pays their fair share. Sounds like there will be a crackdown on suites as we suspected…

Maybe. I’d bet that they will be targeting those who own for a short period of time before reselling quite strongly.

Most of the country doesn’t care about suites. It’s a Vancouver/Victoria phenomenon.

In BC 25% of homes have a secondary suite. Across Canada 14% of homeowners rent out a portion of their home to non-family members. These numbers are thought to be low due to under-reporting.

There are 13,320,610 households in Canada. If 70% of them are owned that is 9,324, 427 and 14% of that is 1,305,419 households renting out space, likely with more than one voter in the household.

So you’d be right that probably the prairie provinces are not going to care as much as the rate of secondary suite ownership is much lower at 5%, but BC, Alberta and Ontario all have high populations and high rates of secondary suites that go a long way to provide needed accommodation.

Nothing will take down the federal liberals faster than cracking down on suites. Already people are noticing the various tax increases and credit eliminations. It’s reached even the lowest information voters possible.

Actually, the Swiss towns are new communities with the old town feel, They have been engineered with a view to having a sustainable economic base. Combination of light manufacturing, government and tourism. It strikes as a model that could be replicated here in BC.

Some of the old houses really were poorly built as are many new houses today as well. Overall in many ways the new houses today are probably a bit better. That does not mean that they are great.

Occasionally one can still find an old century house that has very solid bones. Obviously the electrical and some mechanical systems need to be upgraded but there is still real value in other aspects of the house.

I am at times surprised at how little research people do before buying a house on how houses are actually constructed. These days there are so many great educational videos available . One would think that people about to make the biggest investment of their life would invest a few hours learning about the product they want to buy.

Marko, how many of your clients focus on cosmetics rather than whether the house is sound from a mechanical point of view.

@ Barrister

“Switzerland uses a system of architectural controls. We could follow the same model of development.”

Good idea. Let’s adopt it in OB first.

Marko:

The village in Croatia is beautiful indeed. But there is no reason why we cannot build places, while different, that are not just as beautiful. Switzerland uses a system of architectural controls. We could follow the same model of development. The key is to create an economic base along with architectural controls with a view to making sustainable towns.

@CS
“It’s called “user pay” not “myopia.” And the alternative is not 20-20 vision, it’s vote buying — at the expense of non users. You must be an NDPer, they are exemplary practioners of non-user pay.”

No. The alternative would be a tax, progressive or otherwise.

“The principle of user pay has already been adopted by some auto insurance companies. They put a box in your car that monitors how you drive. If you keep to the speed limit and otherwise drive in a responsible way, you get a lower rate.”

Speed limits are artificially and arbitrarily low in Victoria. This would reward blind rule-following, not safe driving.

Original floor in my old house to! 94 years old. That poster print of wood on MDF you love will last twenty years tops. Less if you have a dog. Then it’s time for a new one with a fresh dose of off gassing. Engineered products are becoming necessary because the quality of wood is going. Second or third growth fir just ain’t the same thing….

Upgraded wiring though 🙂

Not trying to get a rise out of you or anyone else. All am I suggesting is that we at least examine the Swiss model of small interlocking towns as an alternative to high density larger cities.

Can’t really compare. There is town, Samobor, of population aprpox. 30,000 in Croatia my cousin lives in and I spend a couple of days there every summer.

This is the main square -> https://www.google.ca/search?q=samobor+main+square&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiQ18XpopPSAhVKImMKHcmaDfEQ_AUICSgC&biw=1315&bih=1143#imgrc=8LwSXIiNjb_m0M:

There is also a 12th century castle in the town, a spectacular walk-way along a river, etc., just Google image “Samobor, Croatia.”

I would absolutely love to live there. It would be great for kids, etc. Do I want to live in Duncan or Crofton even though it is significantly cheaper than Victoria? Not so much.

I’ve driven through Swiss a couple of times and the small towns are nicer than Croatia.

You can’t compare small towns with centuries of history with what we have in Canada. In Canada the bright lights of Toronto, Vancouver, etc., seem to have a greater appeal than the smaller towns. Seriously the worlds biggest hockey stick?

@ Barrister:

“CS:

While you are at it lets license and tax bicycles to pay for the bicycle lanes. A system of toll roads would also work if one wanted to go on your model. …”

Indeed, why not, so far as is practicable. Road tolls are entirely practicable and would surely curb traffic congestion (with higher rates during rush hour on busy roads, etc.) and air pollution.

The principle of user pay has already been adopted by some auto insurance companies. They put a box in your car that monitors how you drive. If you keep to the speed limit and otherwise drive in a responsible way, you get a lower rate.

User pay is the basis of a productive market economy. It ensures the efficient allocation of resources to achieve maximum utility.

@Bman

“Perhaps people living on the mainland should not subsidize BC Ferries. Perhaps people who chose not to live in urban areas should not subsidize public transit. Let myopia reign supreme!”

It’s called “user pay” not “myopia.” And the alternative is not 20-20 vision, it’s vote buying — at the expense of non users. You must be an NDPer, they are exemplary practioners of non-user pay.

@ Bearkilla,

That’s the first post that I’ve ever seen you make that appeared to have a purpose other than juvenile antagonism. Didn’t think you had it in you – congrats!

The materials used, building standards. education and quality of workmanship is superior today than in any other decade of construction.

You mean they CAN be. Actually not. OSB and modern 2X4’s and starline windows will not outlast that Arts and Crafts built with old growth Fir…. Of course the technology was simple then. single pane windows and hollow walls….
Hop your OSB box doesn’t leak.
http://www.greenbuildingadvisor.com/sites/default/files/images/Rotten%20OSB%20-%20bad%20window%20flashing%206%20-%20cropped%20-%20Parlee.preview.jpg

“Ok I can’t believe this. Spec houses in Happy Valley are selling at $689. 2500 sq ft shitboxes. I think you bears are about to be BTFO.”

Typical market top signals, low inventory and gloating paper king hillbillies who can’t type more than a sentence. Always a boat load of suckers at the top, and many a developer whose going to go bankrupt building those shitboxes.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/current-former-nhl-players-lose-more-than-13-million-in-resort-deal/article563492/

http://victoria.citified.ca/news/league-assets-corp-developer-of-colwoods-capital-city-centre-project-declared-bankrupt/

@CS
Why stop there? Perhaps people living on the mainland should not subsidize BC Ferries. Perhaps people who chose not to live in urban areas should not subsidize public transit. Let myopia reign supreme!

@Caveat Emptor

“No high income developed country has replacement level fertility (2.1). France, NZ, Ireland and Iceland is the closest.”

So you suggest we just die off, replacing ourselves with people from elsewhere in the process. Good God, the West really is doomed if that is the general view.

Fortunately, in Canada, the first nations still have a positive fertility rate. Good for them.

@ Bman

“Copenhagen is connected to outlying suburbs by actual freeways (130 km/h) and rail transport. I don’t see what the problem is with giving people a choice of commuting or living close in.”

That’s fine with me as long as th0se commuters pay for their freeways in full, plus all the exterrnalities generated by freeway use including noise, air pollution and the general ugliness that highways driven through otherwise tranquil countryside create. Oh, and they’d better pay a carbon tax too.

At the very least we need to see the Canadian fertility rate back above the replacement rate where it was before Pierre Trudeau became Prime Minister. After that, we can consider more immigrants, people like Marko.

No high income developed country has replacement level fertility (2.1). France, NZ, Ireland and Iceland is the closest.

I don’t see many middle class 2 working parent families having more than 2 kids anymore. With today’s child raising expectations it is just too expensive and tiring. The few demographics I see still regularly having large families (4 or more kids) are (1) Rich folks with a full time stay at home mom, (2) Certain religious groups, (3) near and below poverty line families. I don’t know if the data supports that but what I see in middle class city life is that 1 or 2 kids are the norm for folks that couple up.

Less we forget the CMHC warning from a few weeks back but keep pumping the fake news Mikey.

CMHC issues alert for Victoria housing, warns of ‘overvaluation’

Canada’s housing agency has added Victoria to its list of real estate markets with problems, seeing danger signs in the B.C. capital’s home values.

The agency’s decision to issue the red alert in its overall assessment for the Victoria region has been months in the making.

“Evidence of problematic conditions has increased in Victoria since the previous assessment due to moderate evidence of price acceleration and overvaluation,” CMHC said.

“I do wonder why more people in their 70s and 80s aren’t selling. Is something missing in the condo/townhouse market that makes them hang on in their houses?”

Imagine yourself waking up tomorrow with the same brain, same motivations to get up and do something productive, but you look a little older and maybe a few joints hurt. You take your heart & stroke pills, & away you go managing your household, talking business with your friends, adjusting your investments, debating politics, contributing to charity work, etc.

Also imagine that you’re still paying taxes, and have paid A TON of taxes your entire life, PLUS you’re doing charity work on the side.

There’s no reason whatsoever to decide you’re moving out of your home – seniors have the same motivations as anyone else to stay where they’ve made a “nest.”

It has nothing to do with facilities available at condos – people are people whether they’re 80 or 30. 80-90% don’t develop dementia/Alzheimer’s, and they’re living 10+ productive years longer with better health care (if they stay active).

Barrister:

You’re right, you’re the only person who has ever worked hard. My lazy generation should commute 3 hours everyday and live in boring cities.

But honestly, you remind me of the old, bored people who just troll during their boring retirement. You seem slightly more intelligent, but overall a waste of time responding to, as you’re just trying to get a rise out of people.

CS:

I suggest that you move to either Toronto or Vancouver which are already high density. New York is great to live in if you have a net income of over 250K a year, otherwise not so much. If you think Victoria is unaffordable try comparing it to New York.

@ Barrister:

“People get to live and work in manageable sized communities.”

No, Barrister, I don’t miss the point. There’s nothing necessarily unmanageable about large high density cities, such as New York, for example, which is more compact than Metro Vancouver yet has a GDP almost equal to that of Canada.

CS:

I think you missed my point which is if you move jobs to small communities and help them develop then
you reduce sprawl. People get to live and work in manageable sized communities.

Tall Guy:

Got that sense of entitlement working the night shift in a factory while doing school during the day.
Thirty years of sixty to seventy hour weeks helped push that entitlement along. By the way too old to be a boomer.

Barrister, you’re such an entitled Boomer it’s ridiculous.

John Dollar:

Maybe we can move Mayor Helps and the city council out of the core as well. North Korea would be about perfect since it is mostly bicycles already.

I agree Barrister, the solution is to move out of the downtown core. Victoria is located at the tip of the island making ingress and egress difficult. Better to move commercial outside of the downtown core and near the Saanich/Victoria border around Uptown.

In my opinion, the policies of the last few mayors is going to kill commercial business in the core. And that’s fine, have Victoria simply tourism and residences.

We also need the provincial government to decentralize and share its resources with the other districts. If the province decentralizes then a massive burden on Victoria’s roads will be alleviated and Mayor Lisa can have all the bike lanes she wants.

They are 50′ x 129′ lots in Oaklands.

Does anyone know what 1287 Rockland sold for?

The only other way to solve this problem that I can possibly think of is ask the feds to immediately cut off immigration Trump style and don’t give any benefits of having children.

Don’t know if anyone caught the story on CTV News last night about the Syrian family that can’t find a rental in the Fernwood area……..people coming to our country have to live somewhere! Density or clear cut Langford to Sooke. What other solution is there?

Funny how Toronto goes up 22% and it’s a bubble in dangerous territory as per BMO but Victoria goes up similar and it’s “just the beginning of 5 to 7 years of pent up demand”. Someone isn’t living in the real world.

FOMO is about to have major wake up call.

Toronto Home Sellers Vanish as BMO Warns of Housing Bubble

“The Toronto housing market —- and the many cities surrounding it —- are in a housing bubble,” Porter said in a note to investors, where he added that he believes the main culprit is demand not supply. “Toronto and any city that is remotely within commuting distance are overheating, and perhaps dangerously so.”

Marko, I think your post reflects the total detachment that many people have from what is affordable. Even at $650,000, that is a ton of money for a duplex. Not to mention the property taxes are $4,600 a year (which is insane for a lot that size, okay maybe they won’t be that much not in Rockland).

It’s not suite-able, so I can’t even get a decent mortgage helper other than renting a room to a student until my next kid comes along. I make just under the median income for BC and I’d be lucky to live paycheque to paycheque even with 20% down.

I do agree that density is needed, but these luxury condos/townhouses/duplexes do almost nothing to solve the problem.

849k for a duplex. I still haven’t adjusted to the price jump.

It’s a lot of change but it is half the price of a similar vintage SFH on that street.

849k for a duplex. I still haven’t adjusted to the price jump.

@ Leo,

Thanks for that. Tomorrow’s ratio is apparently 9%.

The daily and weekly sales/assessment ratio will vacillate considerably depending on location and what type of property as we head into the spring market.

Since the beginning of this month we have had 42 house sales in Victoria, Oak Bay and Saanich East. And during that period some 53 new house listed. That’s about 1.3 new listings for every home that sells. Allowing for owners that over price their properties and will need to lower the asking price in the next few weeks and those that will change their minds and cancel their listing, a ratio of 1.3:1 seems sufficient to keep house prices stable in these areas.

Average days-on-market is 27. Historically 30 to 90 days is considered to indicate a stable market. The DOM is not a good indicator because of how the agents game this indicator by limiting exposure by under pricing and putting a time limitation on showings. 27 days does indicate a market that favors sellers but the DOM may actually lay in the 30 to 90 day range.

There are also currently 120 houses for sale in these three areas or 2.9 months of inventory. That’s low but not as bad as it has been in the past. So you will get properties selling for over asking price with multiple bids, especially when they are under priced by the agent.

I think the market has transformed to the point that one really needs separate stats for SFH homes and condos for it to be meaningful. Lumping them together may be producing a bit of a misleading picture.

“My approach in Croatia will be 100% different from here. I’ll wear a suite, 7% commission, and sell a global marketing pitch Planning on joining a Sotheby’s International Office in Split (hub to all the Dalmation islands).”

Was that like last year when you were going to be the head honcho of Tesla sales over in Croatia and it never transpired ? Most folks wait til they accomplish things first before announcing major career moves, just incase. 😉

Marko:

Do the city planners mostly sit around and think of ways to add to the cost of building a house. If you dont have time to fiddle with your cars you are working too hard.

@Barrister, it’s a garden designed to absorb storm water runoff from your property. Engineering is required because it’s not as simple as sloping into a trench filled with ferns. But it’s also not rocket science. I had to submit a storm water management plan that is less specific. Most of my surfaces are permeable too. My desire is to have a rain garden but to not be forced into engineering and building one is very precious right now since I really don’t like the thought of spending another 20k on something. This way I can simply focus on building a native garden myself over time…. Permit and studies etc so far for me are at about $13,500.
That’s for the arborist report, two biologists reports, septic test, well test, wildland urban interface report, two surveys, development permit fee, building permit application fee, and building permit fee. This doesn’t include any design or engineering costs (or my energy study). So that is simply the cost to get permission to build.

Maybe you can advertise that you have access to the Croatian market?

Will write my Croatian real estate exam this summer…surprisingly more difficult than here, there is a verbal panel questioning component and stuff.

I’ll advertise in Croatia that I have access to the “North American” market 🙂 I figure I can pick up a few villas on the island I am from every year and my unlicensed cousin can do the showings and the rest DocuSign 🙂

My approach in Croatia will be 100% different from here. I’ll wear a suite, 7% commission, and sell a global marketing pitch 🙂 Planning on joining a Sotheby’s International Office in Split (hub to all the Dalmation islands).

Marko:

What the hell is an engineered rain garden anyway.? Are talking water drainage slopes?

Can anyone give an idea of how much is it to build in today’s market?

$150 in the Westshore and over $200 per foot minimum (but closer to 250-300 realistically) in Victoria/Saanich. Victoria kills you with permit fees/service connection fees/driveway and sidewalk replacement/requires additional things that other municipalities don’t such as your suite has to have its own main water shutoff and bureaucratic BS too like they won’t accept handwritten engineering notes/design. Also if a build permit takes you two days in Langford it takes two months minimum in Victoria for an identical house. That is why you don’t see a lot of spec homes, mostly customs. As a builder you can build almost two homes in Langford back to back in the same time frame as building one in Victoria.

Saanich has their own completely different BS such as an engineered rain garden requirement in many areas, etc. They have some messed up crap too….they are the only municipality that won’t let you build a suite unless it has an interior door connection to the main part of the home.

It is like who ever is the boss at the respective building departments just thinks up whatever they want. Through in the HPO office and the 100% zero evidence based owner-builder exam and pretty much only the extremely rich will be able to build going forward.

Doubt you’d get <=200 sq. ft on anything but a cheapest of builds/materials. Trades are charging big money right now.

Joker Marko mentioned 300 a sq foot including the garage so 2500 house and 500 garage is 3000 * 300 as a gauge.

My 2 Cents is +- 100 a sq ft depending on material and quality.

http://www.iheartradio.ca/cfax-1070/shows/the-tony-joe-show-1.2342888

Tony Joe has a show on CFAX 1070. You can call and chat to him if you’d like. I think it’s Saturdays at noon. He’ll likely suggest, when it’s time to sell, to make sure you put lot’s of 888’s in the price…

Leo,

Garth’s problem is he has some personal vendetta against Justin/Libs and must have strong Asian business interests and can’t dare say what everyone else could see happening in Vancouver for years despite shady Asian realtors and agencies being investigated for fraud and tax evasion. His blog tone has changed and isn’t as appealing as it once was.

Pent up supply is definitely more like it John. Greed is stopping hundreds of listing but can change overnight when the tide rolls out. Getting caught being priced to perfection will cost those trying to max out. Been there. Grab that cash and make a stash.

‘Grandma’s’ house in an excellent location at 1908 Greatford Pl steps from Willows beach, just sold. – listed for $1.2m, sold for $1.25m. It needs about another few hundred grand to bring it up to date.

Interesting new build house just listed today at 1456 Hamley St. in uber-desirable Fairfield. View of Gov’t house you could’ve waved to Wils and Kate & kids when they visited last year. Only $1.975m +GST! Open house on Fri & Sat.

@ Rook,

Glad I don’t watch television…

Based on these anecdotes I’d say this spring will be the biggest drop in real estate values in Canadian history. This is how it plays out. Inventory continues to drop until people are fighting over 1970s condos on Burnside and paying 300k over asking unconditional. That’s the final straw for Vancouver buyers who finally wise up and start buying up houses in Maui instead. Unemployed oil workers from Alberta give up too and move to Nova Scotia instead and take up cod fishing. That leaves nearly dead people from Ontario but they decide that it’s cheaper to be euthanized back home.

On the other side of the coin, I am not sure if it is that easy to price some houses in this market. I know that I am glad that I am not buying into the market right now.

I suspect that in parts of Victoria people hold onto their homes for quite a while. There seem to be a number of people who have retired early, in their mid-fifties and it is possible that they will stay in the house for twenty years.

“A lot of buyers are more educated and when they see a house listed for $750k they aren’t bothering putting in a 775k conditional as they know there is no chance (depending on the home).”

That’s the education that I received last year. It was a tough lesson to learn since it’s so easy to get attached to a particular house. But all you can do is keep putting in bids that you’re comfortable with and hope that one works out.

What about “pent-up supply”? Is there such a thing at all?

We are now into our second year of below average active house listings in the core. Have people decided that they no longer want to move to another home? Or that circumstances precluded them from listing and they decided to renovate instead? It is rare today to have someone buy a home and live in it for 30 years. People move around on a regular basis trading up and trading down in the market.

This has happened in the past when we had below average listings for a couple of years. Followed by a large increase in active listings well above the average. Such as what happened in 2008 and 2009.

That’s pent up supply.

As for pent up demand. We all should understand by now that any time the interest rate or prices increase fewer people can buy. So while people wish they could buy a home, the fact is that fewer can buy a home. That’s not pent up demand.

Wow – what an awful time to be house hunting right now!

The Rithet condo looks like it could be a 1990’s leaky condo! possibly w/ mold issues, so on top of paying $77k over those people may now have to deal with the health effects from that. I once worked w/a guy who lived in a leaky 1990’s condo and all he did was cough all day, suffering adverse health effects from that.

In case anyone’s interested in following more discussion about the new ‘Principle Residence Designation’ that the CRA now requires Canadians to disclose on their income tax returns. ‘Greater fool’ just posted an article about it:

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2017/02/13/the-house-tax/#comments

@Marko – Any sense of approx how many offers are being placed on the popular core houses right now?

It is starting to drop for sure, but not because of decreased demand in my opinion. A lot of buyers are more educated and when they see a house listed for $750k they aren’t bothering putting in a 775k conditional as they know there is no chance (depending on the home).

Basically, last year you had 10 offers and 8 were conditional and 5-6 were barely above asking.

This year it seems like it is down to 5 offers but 4 are unconditional and those 4 are bidding significantly above ask.

Overall it is way worse this year depsite less offers from some of my observations.

Hawk

Have you tried the Marijuana to help you get through this delusional period, They say it is the wonder drug.

@ Barrister,
A few years back people weren’t necessarily selling before buying because they couldn’t sell. My friends just rented their place because of this. Easy to rent but difficult to sell. Now they just don’t see the need to sell it.

John Dollar:

Interesting point about people finding a home before putting their home on the market. I suspect that is very true. Opposite of what it was a few years back. But you cannot put in an offer conditional on the sale of your home with any realistic expectation that anyone would take it.

@ gwac,

Perhaps, but the activity levels seems rather extreme to just attribute it to pent up demand, and adding to this is the fact that Victoria is hardly alone in terms of what is occurring. I don’t think populations in our largest metro regions suddenly discovered low interest rates or became richer. I know, here we go with the same arguments as every other thread.

But I agree this is panic buying, but then what causes the panic? Perception of “yellow peril” about the flood the market? People suddenly watching too much HGTV? Poloz’s comments continue to be dovish, and I’m not sure I see any imminent rate hikes. Trump’s protectionism may actually encourage the BOC to allow the dollar to fall to remain competitive. That may cause people to speculate, but I don’t think buyers en masse are thinking along those lines atm.

For 500 to 750 a month you can lease a lot. I never judge wealth by vehicles. I know a lot of very rich people who drive 10 year old cars and vice versa. Students have their parents lease cars for them. Some cultures are very status conscious.

“you have very young buyer showings up in cars like BMW i8s.”

Yep. I can’t believe how much money appears to be floating around out there from what I see at open houses. Also, has anyone looked at a UVic parking lot lately? There are many more luxury cars that I’ve ever seen there before. And the professors certainly aren’t the ones driving Porsches.

Thanks. That’s interesting to note.

More generally, I have seen some people claiming that Victoria is simply lagging behind Vancouver, with the implication being that our market would also put the brakes on as in some of the Vancouver market segments now.

On the other hand, Victoria seems to be mimicking Toronto and a few other markets as well. Regardless, I’m not sure how much I buy the foreign investor argument of “juicing the market” here (as opposed to wild local speculation), but what do I know. This is just crazy, in any case.

I know y’all would like to consider yourself upper class but I know the upper class wouldn’t sit at our table at the union club. Even Barrister had to work his entire life before he could enjoy the last bit.

Wrote 4 unconditional offers over the weekend ranging from 30k to 110k over asking and none accepted. It is brutal out there.

Dasmo:

I am not sure that the definition of middle class really works in the bigger cities. A young policeman married to a young firefighter most definitely have a combined income over your middle class limit.