Weekly stats update courtesy of the VREB.
|Wk 1||Wk 2||Wk 3||Wk 4|
|Sales to New Listings||50%||50%||54%||
|Months of Inventory||
A reasonably strong week of sales but we are still about 17% below last year’s sales pace. Interestingly enough the sales/list ratio is more or less the same so while sales are down, new listings are down about the same amount.
Let’s dig a little deeper into the lack of inventory. With only 1500 properties for sale (many of which are the dregs which I will get into in a future date), it’s hard to believe we will be able to sustain anywhere near the record sales pace of last year. Sure enough so far we are trailing despite no indications that the actual market interest has subsided. But exactly how much fewer sales can we actually expect?
Well last year at the start of January 2016 we had 2517 properties on the market and proceeded to sell 10,622 of them in the year. Start of this January we had 1493 on the market. Setting aside those properties that expired or were pulled from the market (very few last year), about 1000 of last year’s sales came from existing inventory while 9622 of the sales came from new listings (of which there were 13,250 last year).
So the lack of inventory may not be a huge factor holding back sales. Yes we can expect maybe 10% fewer sales due to inventory constraints, but the much more important factor will be new listings. What’s happening there?
I’m quite surprised by this actually because all we’ve been hearing for months now is how people aren’t listing their houses because there is nothing to buy. Turns out this is more or less nonsense since there are just as many people listing their places now as there were when the market was completely dead in 2013. Then as now about 1100 new listings per month or 13,000/year. If they slow down that will put a serious crunch on sales, but if they keep pace we could be close to last year’s sales numbers.