2016 Predictions Roundup

Every year we make predictions on this blog at the start of the year.  It’s not the end of the year yet but we are close enough we can estimate the final numbers, and it won’t make much difference given everyone was catastrophically wrong anyway.

Without further ado here’s the roundup of results with category winners marked in green.

UserAnnual SalesSFH
Average
BoC RateTeranet
June
Teranet
Dec
Leo S8800$710,000.25%158165
Marko
Juras
8000$665,000.50%153155
Dasmo8500$690,000.25%151161
Fireecology8000$700,000.25%----
Michael7800$705,000.50%156164
Caveat
emptor
7800$670,000.25%----
CuriousCat8450$650,000.25%----
Actual10622$754,586.50%162175*

*actual numbers approximate until the final year totals come in.

I’ll crown myself first of the losers on that one.   

Many other less quantifiable predictions in last year’s prediction thread, most of which turned out wrong.  As they say, it’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.   But we shouldn’t feel too bad, even the supposed experts in the industry were wildly off about this year and they even get paid for being wrong.  That seems to have been the theme of 2016 actually: so called experts being wrong about everything.  The market, Brexit, Trump.  What’s next?  Socreds win the election?

What will 2017 bring to the Victoria market?   As always, it’s tough to predict with many factors pulling in both directions, and a whole year of government meddling that could turn everything we know today on its head.   On the one hand the market is still stupidly hot, with December sales going to be near record levels while inventory shrinks down to levels we haven’t seen before.   Also Christy’s Teaser Loans will take effect and may goose the low and mid range market.  On the other hand we are just coming off a year with near 20% increases in detached house prices and with catastrophically low inventory will there be enough to sell?   What about the effect of living next to Trumpistan?

It’s a minefield but here we go:   I think 2017 will continue to be an active year in the market but we will see some slowdown because there just isn’t enough out there to sell.   Sales will be down about 15% from this year, with continued increasing prices.   Inventory will increase a bit by the end of the year but not enough to provide real relief.

Let’s add condo prices to the prediction this year.  The average price for condos in 2016 will be about $355,000, with December to date at $381,000.

My 2017 predictions:

Annual Sales:   9000
SFH Annual Average Price: $835,000
Condo Annual Average Price:  $400,000
BoC rate Dec 2017: 0.5%
Teranet June 2017:  184
Teranet Dec 2016: 193

What else will happen?  The Liberals will win another term (duh), the stock market will be unremarkable, Canada will underperform, and Vancouver will correct some 15% as measured by Teranet.

What says your crystal ball?  If you would like to consult the data first that is here.  Oh yeah, and Merry Christmas everyone!

Update:  Here are our predictions so far.

UserAnnual SalesSFH
Average
Condo
Average
BoC RateTeranet
June
Teranet
Dec
Leo S9000$835,000$400,000.50%184193
Marko
Juras
8200$770,000$365,000.75%----
CuriousCat8500$650,000$375,000.25%----
AG9500$850,000$410,000.50%----
Michael8900$830,000$420,000.75%182192
Caveat
emptor
9200$785,000$390,000.50%180185
JD10750$845,000$485,000.75%----
Bearkilla--$950,000--------
Hawk--$575,000--------
South10200$923,000$478,0001.0%190196
Gwac12000$1,000,000$475,0001.0%195205
oopswediditagain7200$650,000$280,000.25%----
Entomologist9500$815,000$395,000.75%----
Ash8700$820,000$430,000.50%----
Vicbot9800$775,000$390,000.75----
Dasmo10000$790,000$390,000.50%----
Local Fool8400$705,000$368,000.75%----
numbers hack8500$805,000$390,000.50%180185
CS6500$560,000$275,0003.0%----
VicRenter8000$800,000$380,000.50%----
plumwine12000$925,000--.75%
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165 thoughts on “2016 Predictions Roundup

  1. Dasmo:
    More useful would be sale prices up or down relative to last sale, list and appraised.

    I look at this site more as a barometer of the market in terms of direction than a measure of price rise or decline.

    We can all agree that in a hot rising market, people in general aren’t reducing prices. Realtors are under pricing and creating bidding wars. There doesn’t seem to be enough evidence on the Victoria end to make a determination of big changes but certainly the sea of red on the Mainland is indicative of the market conditions.

    The site might be around for a while and could prove to be useful. Perhaps Victoria changes to blue. Let’s find out.

  2. @oops that site is interesting but most price changes will tend to be down not up. More useful would be sale prices up or down relative to last sale, list and appraised.

  3. Leo – yes, that was kind of my question. I suppose it’s reasonable that price drops in listings (again, I don’t think the data has anything to do with sales) are related to a slow market, but it is tricky that imagine how to interpret these signals. My sense is that DOM is better than price drops ($ or %). And overbid sales or sales at ask price wouldn’t show up at all. So maybe the number of sales drop properties relative to total listings would be the main measure of interest. I don’t think the author has a handle on it either. It seems rather easy to misinterpret.

  4. What is the realtycheck website supposed to show? It shows price slashes, sure, which shows which properties were overpriced; and I guess it shows flips? I can’t see why else prices would go up on the map. In a hot market most listings simply disappear if priced well (or low), unless bought by speculators for flipping. This seems a bit unhelpful. Am I missing something?

    I could see the trend being another useful indicator of the health of the market. Early indicator of weakness before it shows up in prices. Whether it is different than DOM is debatable.

    However what is interesting is the source of the data. Either they are scraping Realtor.ca (copyright infringement) or they have built it with a data access connection through the Board which according to the VREB policies on data connections is also a violation (you can’t show all listings on a public site). Given the guy behind it is not an agent I guess he is either scraping or using someone else’s connection.

    I like the idea though these kinds of metrics are useful to quantify the “feel” of the market which is often so subjective.

  5. You seem to have overlooked my prediction, which I am already beginning to feel is unduly optimistic. but I will stick with it:

    I’ll add the last couple, thanks. Just took a few days blog break. Looks like we have moved on to solving the greater issues in Victoria in the meantime.

  6. Re – oops

    What is the realtycheck website supposed to show? It shows price slashes, sure, which shows which properties were overpriced; and I guess it shows flips? I can’t see why else prices would go up on the map. In a hot market most listings simply disappear if priced well (or low), unless bought by speculators for flipping. This seems a bit unhelpful. Am I missing something? I don’t see any evidence that it shows final sale prices (which could be quite meaningful). Maybe it’s seeking to be a downscaled version of the Teranet HPI?

  7. Hey you HHV bears and maybe bulls. Happy New Year.

    I’m providing a link to My Realty Check. It is now including Victoria and Nanaimo but I think you have to navigate the map to get the location. They don’t have the buttons set up yet as it just started on the Island on the 27th.

    http://www.myrealtycheck.ca/

    I’m not sure how much of the market it covers but it does include decreases and increases in prices. I presume it will provide an option to the anecdotal information that everyone second guesses.

  8. I put together a longer response but lost it when I tried to send it and anyway I don’t think a housing blog is the right place to fix this problem. Suffice to say that the system is broken and not likely to get fixed. If you are bothered by mentally ill and addicted homeless people, complain about it. The more people that do, the more likely politicians will listen and those of us who work in the field will have enough money to make a dent.

    Just a point of clarification. The going rate for psychologists is $195 per treatment hour and up to $400 per assessment hour. Extended health will usually cover about $500.

  9. Leo S: You seem to have overlooked my prediction, which I am already beginning to feel is unduly optimistic. but I will stick with it:

    Sales: 6500
    SFH$: 560,000
    MFD$: 275,000
    BoC %: 3.00%

  10. @Ag: “I think you’re taking about Guaranteed Minimum Income, which I’m actually in favour of.”

    Not sure what a guaranteed minimum income entails.

    I’m for it as long as it requires that able-bodied persons are prepared to work to get it.

    Just handing out cash to people who believe in sharing the wealth without the discipline of work is unlikely, in my view, to be good either for society or for the recipients of the cash.

  11. What we need is a tax on things that I don’t like and people that make more money than me. Then we need a tax credit or refund for me and the things I do like.

    I would also recommend a system where people vote but only have one choice to vote for.

  12. ” A solution would be to eliminate minimum wage laws, while providing an income supplement via the tax system to those earning less than a living wage”

    I think you’re taking about Guaranteed Minimum Income, which I’m actually in favour of.

  13. Bitterbear: Many still see addiction as a choice made by the weak-minded, not a medical problem.

    Hey, Bitterbear, I think that one of the bigger problems is the different opinions expressed by your associates. If, as a professional group, you can’t agree on this simple point then how does the man on the street develop sympathy for the addict on the street.

    Even with alcoholism the meme is “they have to hit rock bottom”. It seems somewhat hypocritical to say that an addict has no choice but you have to wait for them to hit rock bottom and then they make the choice to seek help.

    http://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=90688&page=1

    Psychologist Jeff Schaler, author of Addiction Is a Choice, argues that people have more control over their behavior than they think.

    “Addiction is a behavior and all behaviors are choices,” Schaler says. “What’s next, are we going to blame fast-food restaurants for the foods that they sell based on the marketing, because the person got addicted to hamburgers and french fries?”

    Well, yes, actually. Two weeks after he said that some children sued McDonald’s, claiming the fast-food chain made them obese. They lost the first round in court, but they’re trying again.

  14. This comment is for “BitterBear”.
    Thank you for pointing out so clearly what is wrong with the “system” for treating those with mental illness.
    I believe that the mental health profession is part of the problem and has to be changed. For example: You mention that the person dealing with addictions will never get off the drugs until they make the decision themselves. You then go on to point out that those with mental health issues have a medical problem and that it is not simply a “weak work ethic”. I agree with that idea. However….if it is true (as I suspect) that their difficulties are caused by a “medical problem, then how can we expect them to make good decisions? How can they then ever get off the merry go round? The medical profession has been touting a non hands on policy for decades now. Every year that passes we keep being told that their strategy is working and yet every year we watch as it disintegrates into an even worse mess. I believe that we need to take these people into care. And no…that doesn’t mean picking up the weekend drunk…. how you make that leap boggles my mind…. but it illustrates exactly why the medical profession is paralyzed to do anything.
    I do agree that we need much more funding for the mentally ill.
    I also believe that no one should be arrested. It should not be a criminal matter. No one should get a record. I do know that if I am wandering around the street in my slippers and can’t decide which way is up or down, I would hope that my government would protect and take care of me until I was better able to do so myself. I look forward to the next generation of young people taking over the problem of finding new solutions to addiction. The old way of thinking by the hippy generation has failed us all miserably. Sorry…but that is how I feel.

  15. @BB

    “Treatment only works when the patient is on side.”

    That is not always not so. Patients who are certified, or whatever the term is, are treated involuntarily, usually with beneficial results, e.g., Kay Jamison.

  16. @ Vicbot”

    “psychologists are on your own dime”

    i.e., about $100 an hour, and completely beyond the reach of anyone on the streets!

    But at least if you want to take your infant to a chiropractor for treatment of cholic the Province will pay.

    We should assign psychiatrists to the Provincial government and the city council.

  17. “One of the main priorities should be to get people off the streets – whether it’s to an institution or a shelter – so that the rest of us can get on with our lives.”

    A lot of those on the streets in Victoria are young people who would be employed and out of trouble if there were a job available to them. A solution would be to eliminate minimum wage laws, while providing an income supplement via the tax system to those earning less than a living wage. This would enable virtually all young people to enter the adult labor force where they would learn skills, discipline and self-respect.

  18. CS, from what I understand, both psychiatrists & psychologists help with the mentally ill – the only difference is that a psychologist can’t prescribe medication.

    Having had 2 friends go through the mental health support process (one can work, one can’t but gets support from her husband), it’s a hugely complicated issue, even to get help. I think our medicare only pays for psychiatrists (because they prescribe medication) & psychologists are on your own dime, but both are qualified.

    In order to stay working, you & your family doctor might decide it’s not in your best interest to have it go through medicare, so you have to use your own $, which again, you may not have enough of.

    There’s a huge spectrum of mental health problems & drug additions – and where do you draw the line between putting someone in an institution, or staying at work, or seeking family support. It’s easier to get better if you have regular access to everyday life, work, & people.

    I guess we all agree that it would be better to have the homeless go through rehabilitation – not the old-fashioned institutions – but I think those are called “Transitional Houses”, eg., Queens Manor?

    The biggest issue is: how do you force people to move in there when they don’t want to? It’s a catch-22: if there were thinking “straight” they’d want to move in, but they’re not.

    I agree that something needs to change though – not sure how.

  19. CS, I think most people working in mental health would think your comments about what psychologists don’t do are intended as a joke. Mental health is a biopsychosocial construct. Psychiatrists are MDs trained to diagnose and administer medications which is only one part of the elephant. Psychologists are PhDs trained to diagnose and treat the psychosocial part of the elephant. We work closely with psychiatrists, neurologists, GPs, social workers etc to identify and treat behavioral and social aspects of mental health.

    As far as “taking people in hand”, there is no difference between forced treatment and aggression. Treatment only works when the patient is on side. the only way to force someone into an institution is on the basis of incapacity. This is a difficult question and one of the hardest things I have had to do as you are taking away rights and freedoms. While you can hold someone for 72 hours if they are in immediate danger, you can’t force them to stay beyond that (unless you renew their involuntary status for another 72 hours). If someone is high or drunk and a danger to themselves, you can hold them but once they detox you have to let them go if they are not longer a danger. Can you imagine what would happen if we started institutionalizing people for behaving badly while drunk? No doubt we might all be housed.

    At present, we have only one locked facility on the island to my knowledge, so those beds are reserved for people who lack capacity (whether they are drunk or sober, high or clean) in such a way that they are a danger to themselves or others if not supervised. The goal for even these patients is community release with supports. And many of them are successful.

    What we need is more detox beds (recently, I tried to get a heroin addict into detox and I was told to advise them it would be at last two weeks for a bed, so they should keep using in the meantime to avoid withdrawal) and we need low barrier housing where addiction status does not preclude placement. Right now, much of the supported housing is clean and sober housing which means most of us on this blog wouldn’t even qualify.

    sorry to all for taking up much time with this. Dealing with homelessness in this city is difficult because it is a multi-faceted problem and because no one wants to pay for people who struggle with addiction. Many still see addiction as a choice made by the weak-minded, not a medical problem. It is not a political priority because these people don’t vote, so the funding for addressing this problem is woefully inadequate and society, by and large, objects to spending money on a group that appears on the surface to flout the good ol’ protestant work ethic. But, try living rough for a week and see how much work it really is.

  20. One thing that is often forgotten in this discussion is the effect that the homeless problem has on other people. It certainly makes living in or visiting downtown a less pleasurable experience. And I’m sure the downtown businesses don’t appreciate it either. One of the main priorities should be to get people off the streets – whether it’s to an institution or a shelter – so that the rest of us can get on with our lives.

  21. @Dasmo, I moved here in ’97, but thanks. I don’t know quite what you mean by too red? Flat can be beautiful too. I liked it there. I like it here too.

  22. “I am a psychologist, so I know of which I speak.”

    Isn’t that a contradiction in terms!

    Oops, sorry.

    But is it not the case that a psychologist is not a specialist in mental illness, or even trained to deal with the mentally ill?

    I thought that dealing with the mentally ill was job for the psychiatrists — not that anyone who is mentally ill has much chance of meeting a psychiatrist unless they are already strapped to a gurney and available to be injected at will with whatever the shrink thinks fit.

    And what the psychiatrists think fit seems to change as rapidly as the fashionable length of skirts, or rather the promotional efforts of the drug industry.

    What could be done for the mentally ill that would be better than the present arrangements is obviously a complex question that I won’t attempt to address here, though I will say that the closure of mental hospitals that followed the advent of the atypical antipsychotic drugs seems to have been driven primarily by the desire for savings in expenditure, not any interest in the welfare of those formerly institutionalized.

    As for drug addicts, it seems there are plenty of them on the streets at high risk of killing themselves by overdosing on toxic substances. Might it not be a kindness to take them in hand and put them through some sort of rehabilitation process?

    But insofar as you are advocating more funding for the housing of the poor, and for the treatment of the ailments of the poor, psychological and otherwise, I agree.

  23. CS, I am a psychologist, so I know of which I speak. A couple of points. First, institutions are isolating and disabling. Managing someone in the community with supports is clinically better than locking them away. In all but the most intractable cases, isolating people from society creates mental illness rather than treats it.

    Second, you are confusing addiction with homelessness. Many addicts are highly functional people with jobs, houses, mortgages, families. They don’t need locking up. The people you are talking about are people who might have addiction but their main problem is homelessness. If you are suggesting institutionalization for homelessness, you are arguing that homelessness is either an illness or a crime. It is neither. If we address homelessness, many mental health problems take care of themselves because people have security, community and they are available for follow up and case management. Medication compliance is hard to manage when you keep getting robbed in your sleep.

    You are right that a hospital bed would be better than a box and on any given Saturday night, there are beds in the ER hallway with homeless people who are nothing more than tired, cold and hungry and needing a warm place to sleeep. How is that a good use of our funds? Hospital beds are a lot more expensive than subsidized low barrier housing.

    For many of these people, housing is a health issue and needs to be treated that way. About the guy in your stairwell, I feel for you. I work with these folks on a regular basis and on more than one occasion, I’ve had people vomiting in my office. My job is to try to find them work, but they have to leave early because the shelter fills up by 2 pm, or they don’t have an address to write on the application, or a SIN or a phone. Or, I have to try to find them supports. I arrange case management which means someone wanders around downtown Victoria for a few hours trying to find them to get them to an appointment. Sure, we can lock em up but who’s gonna pay for it? And legally, how do we justify taking away someone’s rights? Trump might have said it but I’m pretty sure that doesn’t make it a good idea or a feasible solution.

    “Curable” is a funny word and not one that we typically use regarding mental health and addictions. how do you determine when someone is cured? When they walk and talk? When they have a job? When they return to school and get C grades? When they stop using, stop jonesing, stop thinking about it? No idea what that means. “Manageable” is more appropriate.

  24. @Bitterbear:

    “Institutionalizing people who are mentally ill makes most people worse and is ultimately a very expensive warehouse”

    For some no doubt. But institutionalizing addicts seems like a better idea than leaving them on the streets in search of the next fix. And there are quite a few seriously ill people who would benefit from institutionalization: like the guy who took to sleeping, pissing, and vomiting in the elevator in our office building.

    For such people, if they are curable, a hospital bed would likely be a better bet than a doorway or cardboard box. And if they are incurable, a publicly funded institutional home could and should be better.

  25. CS, that is a very regressive move. Institutionalizing people who are mentally ill makes most people worse and is ultimately a very expensive warehouse. Most mental illness can be managed in the community with medical and socioeconomic interventions but the political will must be there. Nanaimo Mental Health has actually been quite successful with a housing first policy.

  26. @James welcome to the island! You made it out! AB is too red, too flat, and man that was crazy driving… I got a sick satisfaction seeing the look on my aunts face when we told her we are home schooling my son. Shock…

  27. @ Bitterbear: “Rather than sinking money into policing, sink it into low barrier housing then front line addiction services.”

    Makes sense for municipalities to promote low-cost housing so that the lowest-paid workers do not have to commute to work, adding to traffic congestion and urban sprawl.

    For the addicted and the mentally ill, we should consider rebuilding the institutions that existed to house and care for such people, but which were flogged off when the inmates were let loose on the streets.

    This, incidentally, is a solution that Trump advocated during the election campaign.

  28. @Gwac: “Trump is all about growth and inflation. That will be good for the Canadian economy and inflation.”

    Economic growth is always good for the economy since economic growth is how everyone measures whether the economy is good or not. But if growth is accompanied by inflation, as seems inevitable since growth will mainly be achieved only if cheap imported goods are replaced by domestically produced goods manufactured with higher priced labor, the impact on housing will be negative. A doubling in mortgage rates will likely drive the Victoria average single family home price half-way back to what it was in 2000.

  29. My predictions:

    Annual sales: 8000
    SFH average: $800,000
    Condo average: $380,000
    BOC rate: .5%

    Hope everyone had a happy holiday!

  30. One of the biggest, if not the biggst, predictors of health is housing. There is almost no mental health housing and even less low barrier housing. Without housing, homelessness is a given. Rather than sinking money into policing, sink it into low barrier housing then front line addiction services. Without housing the homeless, addiction and mental health services are useless.

  31. “That would have been us. If we couldn’t have afforded a house we would have bought something eventually but it would have been a condo or townhouse in the core rather than anything out in the west shore. Commuting sucks.”

    That’s my situation, too. If I can’t buy a house this coming year and prices keep going up, I’ll either buy a condo or rent long-term in the core. I’d far rather rent for life than sign up for a big commute to the west shore.

  32. @Bearkilla, safe injection site is already up and running. I don’t understand why people feel that lack of mental health funding should be a death sentence for the people who have to deal with that.

  33. James

    When the problems slip through the Pandora/quadra or Vancouver st/ fort/ douglas box. They did in the summer to tent city now they are back to the normal area. Keep in confined and I guess the status quo remains.

    Maybe that is the plan by officials to keep things in the boxed area.

  34. Would you allow your daughter or someone else daughter to walk alone in the 4 block radius of Pandora…..during the evening??

    My daughter is only 4 y.o.,so I’d probably get in trouble if I did that 🙂

  35. I have no idea what the solution to Victoria’s homelessness problem is. I don’t even really see it as a left/right issue because I don’t hear a lot of solutions from any part of the political spectrum. More police might be part of the answer, but police are damn expensive and I see limited appetite in Victoria for higher taxes. Police is already a big chunk of our budget as Victoria City (80,000 people) pays for policing the downtown core that concentrates all the “inner city” issues for 350,000 people.

    More could definitely be done to make the downtown better. That said I don’t find it all that bad now. Nor do I feel like my neighbourhood (Fairfield) is under siege from a wave of crime coming from downtown.

  36. @gwac Pandora’s been a shitshow for ages. There used to be a tent city there too. How much longer until Victoria is no longer a gem?

  37. Police are not require on every corner but this lefty way of dealing with the issues (lets hug it out) is not working so well is it. Would you allow your daughter or someone else daughter to walk alone in the 4 block radius of Pandora…..during the evening?? Needs to be fix before it is unfixable.
    What happened to that guy standing in front of McDonald’s a month ago should never happen.

    Victoria is a gem but not for long if things remain unchecked.

  38. @gwac. No i didn’t, but it was because I was in Hawaii. Normally if it gets icy, I usually just run(jog) into work, or worst case take the bus.

  39. Sounds like gwac and South must hate this city and should just move. That’s what they told me when I brought up the serious mental health problem downtown. Now they want martial law ? Hypocrites supremo with some alt right Trumpoidisms tossed in.

    Indeed – it is hard to square super bullishness with the view that Victoria is a crime ridden hellhole requiring police** on every corner.

    **Volunteer police of course since we don’t want taxes to rise

  40. I am assuming christy gets in and the ndp does not have the chance to destroy our economy and that Trudeau spends most of his time traveling the world for selfies and not destroying the economy.

    We just had the slowest economic growth of any prime minister since WW2 under Harper. Reversion to the mean suggests that growth will be better under Trudeau.

  41. I just hope that the influx of vancouverites does slow down here. We don’t really want Victoria to turn into a shit show like Vancouver. I think even Hawk agrees with that.

    I’m fine with people coming here but not people from Vancouver.

  42. Vancouver City Council does what is best for the people in Vancouver, and closes down lanes for people commuting from the suburbs. That’s what you get when you don’t amalgamate. Bike lanes and transit make a lot of sense for people that live in a city core since it’s a lot more expensive to have a car there and a lot easier to live without one. Why should they make it easier for people commuting in when they don’t pay taxes there and have no vote?

  43. @South I actually am from Alberta. They actually have a better education system (Edmonton) than here in Victoria. Probably because the teachers had less time off so we spent more time in school.

    Anyway, if you could read something instead of just reacting, you’d realize that I wasn’t actually saying that we should get rid of disabled parking spots, but that you seething at bike lanes for being “used at 1% capacity” is fucking stupid when you use infrastructure all the time that is used even less.

    Also you’re dead wrong about the rest. Don’t drive a truck, live in Victoria and ride my bike to work every day. Also at night I find the most manicured lawns in the city, stomp all over the grass and then sprinkle salt on it, just so geezers like you have something to complain about when you get up in the morning.

  44. “Having said that, my perception is Victoria City Council suffers from the same problem that Vancouver City Council does. You have some real “one issue” dogmatic, ideologically narrow politicians who fiddle with trifles like bike lanes while “Rome burns”. Like Gregor Robertson, they care more about advancing their pet paradigms than people.”

    This and the fact that politicians are looking for so-called “quick wins,” that don’t cost money. Bike lanes are cheap and make it look like government is doing something. Real solutions, like rapid transit, require real money, planning, coordinating across levels of government, and probably raising taxes. Victoria oozes mediocrity, but you get what you pay for.

  45. I echo South’s predictions.

    There will be about a 20% increase in 2017 for a SFD on average for Greater Victoria.

    However, this increase will be unevenly distributed for the reasons South identifies.

    I predict the eastern neighbourhoods will have a disproportionate increase. I’m going to predict a 30-40% increase for South Oak Bay, North Oak Bay, Uplands, Cadboro Bay, Queenswood/Ten Mile Point, Gordon Head/Arbutus/Mount Tolmie and Cordova Bay/Broadmead. Those places are in the sweet spot without the traffic problems of the Westshore or the social problems (and tax burden) that comes with proximity to Downtown Victoria. The closeness to UVic is also helpful as is the fact these are the highest income areas of the city. That’s where Vancouverites like myself would buy if we made the move.

    I think the Peninsula (including Sidney) looks good, too, for similar reasons but instead of UVic you are close to the airport and the ferries to visit relatives.

    From my Vancouver point of view, I have to say I love the layout of Downtown Victoria. The old buildings ooze charm unlike the glass monotony of Vancouver. You also have those lovely squares and terraces by the sea. Charming and with so much potential.

    Unfortunately, you also have a bad homeless problem and a crime problem that infiltrates the heart of Victoria’s Downtown and seeps out even into the surrounding nice areas like James Bay and Fairfield. I don’t entirely blame your politicians as residents in Victoria City must disproportionately put up with the inner city burdens that those areas like Oak Bay and Saanich do not have to deal with. This puts a big burden on Victoria’s police, social services, public housing without the tax base of the nearby high income areas I’ve mentioned. On top of that, I see that running a business in Victoria appears challenging. Each time I come over from Vancouver, I see businesses I patronized just months ago closed – replaced or just an empty storefront. Therefore, the Victoria City Mayor/Council has a much tougher job than those of Oak Bay & Saanich.

    Having said that, my perception is Victoria City Council suffers from the same problem that Vancouver City Council does. You have some real “one issue” dogmatic, ideologically narrow politicians who fiddle with trifles like bike lanes while “Rome burns”. Like Gregor Robertson, they care more about advancing their pet paradigms than people.

  46. Trump is all about growth and inflation. That will be good for the Canadian economy and inflation. Our resources do well in an inflation environment.

    On to housing. There is a huge pent up demand for housing after 7 or 8 years of nothing. Economy and jobs will do well and inventory is low.

    I am assuming christy gets in and the ndp does not have the chance to destroy our economy and that Trudeau spends most of his time traveling the world for selfies and not destroying the economy.

  47. I am curious & would like to understand – South & Gwac, might you please explain how you have arrived at your high predictions for next year – especially because of your stated positions on left government here – why the optimism?

    Also for Trump lovers – what exactly do you think will be his positive effect for us here? I have a tiny, tiny sliver of an open mind about Trump so welcome any insights that might stop my nightmares about him.

    Thanks,

  48. Bman

    Nope got a better idea. Tad on right so best not to offend the lefties and the bleeding heart liberals on here by discussing it.

  49. Gwac, you want your taxes to go up to pay for the facilities and institutions necessary to deal with drug addiction and mental health problems?

  50. Hawk

    Always though Downtown had big-time issues. Getting worse. I would not live within walking distance until they clean it up. That is not going to happen with the socialist/ liberal agenda that sweeps this island.

  51. Sounds like gwac and South must hate this city and should just move. That’s what they told me when I brought up the serious mental health problem downtown. Now they want martial law ? Hypocrites supremo with some alt right Trumpoidisms tossed in.

  52. Wow, James, you must be from Alberta? That or you are a super low IQ 9-5 worker and have never been to a mall or doctors office during hours where us retired folk do things.

    I also suspect you live in Saanich West or Colwood/Langford. That attitude usually exists with redneck truck drivin drinkin types that love Hawkey.

  53. Oh and I know the hippies like to be dirty but man downtown Victoria is looking and smelling horrific.

    Get rid of the nasty Walmart style rainbows and other dirty/trashy looking art out of here, and hire a thousand power washers and painters to give downtown a clean fresh look.

    I mean come on kick the thieves out, and I mean kick them out, to jail for years and then hardcore monitoring and rehab programs with ankle bracelets and hard wired blood monitoring hardware and video recording (to catch them stealing things from good citizens).

    You rob and attack people you lose your licence for freedom in my opinion.

  54. I live in Saanich, so I can’t vote for Victoria Mayor/Counsel removal. Which is not that fair, Victoria is the “city” that we all use.

    We need a hardcore right wing military council in charge. Police/Military on every corner, one stike and you are deported back to your home province/state (yes, there are tons of USA homeless moving here now!!)

    We also need our roads paved and proper markings/lighting, can’t see the roads around here they use cheap paint.

    Also as a disabled person I seeth in anger at all these bike lanes taking up so much space. On any given day they are used at 1% capacity while the roads and parking and handicap spaces that are at 110% capacity were removed!

  55. Marko

    The goose is getting sketchy after the gorge bridge all the way to uptown at night. People sleep under the bridge across from the condo just after gorge waterway bridge. Use to be 5 to 10 people there each night. Most moved to tent city and only a few now come back every once and awhile. Still a lot of interesting people walking the goose or moving their stolen stuff. I would not walk the goose at night or early morning.

  56. Michael

    Careful with the gold index. I use XGD. It is very volatile and the moves are big and can be painful if you are on the wrong side. XEG I use for oil. I stay away from individual shares as I explained previously. Got out of Gold and into XEG and VE after Brexit vote. Still in XEG and VE due to trump effect on growth and inflation. Just got back into XGD on Friday after the last day of tax loss selling and because of Trump coming into power real soon. I think a 18000 to 20000 TSE is possible next year. TSE same place as 9 years ago and is due. We need inflation to get commodities going.

  57. Marko:
    Different stokes for different folks but I am not totally sure of what the appeal of being right downtown actually is at this point.

    Not necessarily right downtown. I loved living at the Bayview as it was quiet at night, the development really only has one way in/out so I never saw a homeless person near the building in 2.5 years. <8-minute walk right to downtown, close to galloping goose. Great views if on the south side of the building.

    Just love the convenience of living in a condo. Blowing leaves and crap around my 1/2 acre isn’t growing on me. Just this fall I had to winterize my sprinkler system, have my gutters cleaned, serviced my heat pump, serviced a few of my gas appliances, etc. In the summer time I had to deal with a super annoying raven landing on my roof every morning, etc.

    If you enjoy blowing leaves off your driveway I guess than homeownership has its benefits.

  58. I agree, we have to take city hall back from the lefties.

    Gwac, thanks for the heads up on the gold index.

    I think we have another three or four years of peak baby boomers retiring.

    Barrister, just curious how you arrived at “three to four years” ?

  59. I wouldn’t be surprised if skyboxes keep up with houses again this cycle.

    Last cycle, both gained the same ~140% from ’01 to ’10. This cycle will see the boomer bulge retiring to our city, and also the start of downsizing at some point. My guess is some time in their seventies, many boomers will have difficulty with stairs.

  60. Yeah the ultra left gov in Vic needs to go now. They made garden beds for street drug users… word gets out fast (they have cell phones). It’s shocking how many hard core violent there are in downtown now, which looks like a wasteland.

    Fairfield and James Bay also is overrun. That’s why I think areas like Oak Bay, Caddy Bay, Gordon Head and Cordova Bay will exponentially gain in prices. They are still pristine.

  61. You do have a portion of buyers that would rather continue to rent in the core versus having to purchase in the Westshore communities.

    That would have been us. If we couldn’t have afforded a house we would have bought something eventually but it would have been a condo or townhouse in the core rather than anything out in the west shore. Commuting sucks.

  62. Marko:
    Different stokes for different folks but I am not totally sure of what the appeal of being right downtown actually is at this point. Personally, I tend to generally avoid downtown on a everyday basis. Shop mostly at the Fairfield plaza and use the library and the pub in Oak Bay. But that is me. The inner city is less appealing by the year and is slowly being Americanized and not in a good way.

  63. I think we have another three or four years of peak baby boomers retiring. After that the numbers will decline each year.

    But, the baby boomer effect will have a longer impact on Victoria. A lerge percentage of buyers in the core will probably be holding on to their houses for a decade or more. I suspect the supply in the core will remain low for a lot of years to come.

  64. Yeah if you look at condo fees it makes sfh look more affordable.

    As I’ve mentioned before my preference would be to live in a nice three bedroom condo in a quality building in the core; however, when you run the numbers a SFH with a suite + appreciation advantage over 10-20 year run is a no brainer compared to a condo.

    I suspect there is a record number of buyers waiting in the wings, and as the years go by, more young people will come online.

    We have never seen this much of a waiting list per sale in history.

    We don’t keep stats on this but probably true. Only thing is as prices climb how much of the waitlist will be taken out due to affordability? You do have a portion of buyers that would rather continue to rent in the core versus having to purchase in the Westshore communities.

  65. Yes… I’m in BC now. Whew that was penance. So glad I live in paradise. If you weren’t a Trump supporter and working in the oil fields making good coin or had family reasons or didn’t know better why would you live there? It makes me more bullish on our RE. People are still leaving there. The little subdivision I was in has 45 houses for sale. Whole town is a few thousand. It was 2 a few years ago. But… was in West Edmonton Mall on Boxing Day and it was nuts. If it was empty and full of for lease signs then I’d be worried….

  66. Yeah if you look at condo fees it makes sfh look more affordable.

    Yeah Vancouver is imploding culturally, people just want out and into somewhere with life and people, we know quite a few business associates that are on a Victoria PCS, and watching like hawks for anything decent to come on the market.

    I’m expecting some hardcore bidding wars this spring if inventory comes online. If inventory doesn’t come online, it just means the backlog of buyers waiting in the wings is going to grow and grow much larger then it already is. I suspect there is a record number of buyers waiting in the wings, and as the years go by, more young people will come online.

    We have never seen this much of a waiting list per sale in history.

    I think average is going to be closer to 1m

  67. step-by-step: In reality it was devastating and my interpretation is that we really don’t know (have data on) how many people are close to the financial line when so few actually go into arrears.

    That kind of data tends to be obscured because the media always seems to reference bankruptcies when they talk about threshold debt and huge mortgages.

    https://www.consumer-proposals.org/consumer-proposals/statistics/

    The number of consumer proposals has increased each and every year since they were introduced, even when bankruptcies were declining.

  68. Thanks for the article @oopswediditagain. Data is so interesting. I had no idea that in 1983 the mortgage arears % was so small. I can recall people talking about a line of moving vans heading east and I had assumed it was double digits. I was young enough that it sounded cool to picture people leaving a province en masse. In reality it was devastating and my interpretation is that we really don’t know (have data on) how many people are close to the financial line when so few actually go into arrears.

    From the link you provided: “…in 1983 the number of mortgages in arrears in Alberta was a still modest-sounding 2.8 per cent.”

  69. The only thing I got wrong about the Victoria Market was that I thought it would have happened at least a year earlier. Certainly it was obvious that Victoria was a bargain and was due an increase. I believe that we will see prices jump at least another one hundred thousand dollars next year. Victoria is still a bargain compared with Vancouver. In my conversations with people around here, I find that my friends generally don’t have a clue just how expensive Vancouver prices are. Most seem to think that prices are higher in vancouver but not that much difference. The problem I think has been that almost every article I read on the Vancouver market, almost always quotes the “Greater ” Vancouver market and most people in Victoria don;t understand that this includes houses well up the Fraser valley and beyond. When you compare houses that are in the inner core of both cities the price difference is staggering. $800,000.00 in Victoria is 3 million in Vancouver. (Plus the fact that the lots in Vancouver can be 30foot wide lots.)
    By the way…I wouldn’t rush into Condo living. Condo fees used to be fairly reasonable. The system has become so bureaucratic and heavily cumbersome that it requires expensive expertise to navigate the mess of running a building. Condo fees are over the top in my opinion and do not make any sense. Not to mention the fact dictators flair up from time to time and decide that they want to change the colour of the carpet or install new windows etc etc etc. Every time I think about simplifying to a condo I ask my wife to hit me on the head:)
    No one knows where prices will go next year but I think there is enough evidence to suggest another Hot, Hot market and another price jump. People in Vancouver can still sell their house on the west side for 3 million and the same level of house here for $800,000.00 The difference is huge. (My friends are all moving here from Vancouver and still putting $2 million in the bank.)

  70. Dasmo
    December 27, 2016 at 9:42 am
    I’m in Alberta right now and it’s doing fine but overbuilt which is their problem.

    Hey Dasmo, in Alberta …. sounds like penance. Lol. Sometimes, like the rich people in British Columbia, looks can be deceiving. Our Albertan neighbours are having their issues.

    http://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/surviving-foreclosure-in-alberta-%E2%80%98i-thought-i-could-do-it%E2%80%99/ar-BBxsluK

    Tim Reid, the founder of Phoenix Real Estate Investing, which works with distressed homeowners, says the number of foreclosure notices issued by Alberta courts in Calgary and Edmonton jumped by about 15 per cent from November to December, and is up as much as 40 per cent on the year.

  71. I’m going to predict that sales volumes of SFH is low – let’s say 8K, but that the prices move up another 10%. Locally I think people are generally tapped out or are close enough to the limit that they’re not moving up/down. I think we’re underestimating non-local demand and I expect strong demand in the SFH arena. I think prices for new condos will rise very slightly but that older condos see no gains.

    I had lunch with someone in finance who is planning on putting their place on the market this spring. They’ve already lined up a house to rent. Given where rents are, I don’t see people unloading their rentals without some serious nudges from the gov or a market collapse.

    I think Canada is going hurt in 2017 and we’re going to see the CAD drop and the interest rates cut again (to end the year at a quarter point). Real mortgage interest rates will increase as the general sentiment flattens.

    With the election looming, I don’t think the libs are going to rock the boat in the first half of the year. If Canada starts to move into recession I expect the feds to unravel some of the tightening. I think they’ll continue to warn about debt levels but do nothing of any substance.

    In general, I think we’ll end 2017 in far worse economic shape but I don’t think there will be in crash territory.

  72. I read introverts posts to remind me that increasing home equity will not being me happiness or make me a better person.

    Or help you use apostrophes, or eliminate typos.

  73. It will be an interesting year. My predictions were aggressive, in part to just have fun but also because I think we’re still lagging Vancouver prices by a fair bit and I think there’s upside to be had still. Everyone was wildly wrong last year, so perhaps that can happen again.

    My condo prediction was very high. I don’t know exactly how much supply is coming online this year but I think the trend over the next few years will be a higher percentage of all types of homeowners giving up on detached and buying condos – especially in the core, and in a lot of new buildings. Might not be this year, but it will be the trend. I suspect that the market will respond by building and pricing them to affordability for professionals rather than lower income groups. So far the 3br condo is a rarity but I think we’ll see more in the future. There are some purpose-built rentals at 3br coming online soon.

  74. Hey South, I posted mine, but your bloated head is stuck too far up your ass to be able to read it.

    Jack is the only one on here with any credible numbers and insight. The most anal handful on here decide to continually attack him for his opinions because it may just effect their pocket book, and he’s not even a bear which is even more sick. Last time I looked, he’s in the business, and you’re not.

    As he said there seems to be an effort to stifle discussion to both sides of the market which makes for a very boring blog in a hurry, but seems that’s what most of the homeowners want on here.

    Maybe I’ll follow him as it’s getting extremely lame watching the bulls just get angrier by the price slash.

  75. It’s an interesting discussion re libel, even though I am certainly not a lawyer. I think that Introvert’s comment was completely unnecessary. However I find it difficult to believe it could ever be shown to be libelous.

    For one thing, Introvert’s comment was phrased as a question, not a statement.

    The comment was also directed at an anonymous identity on the forum. Can you libel an anonymous personality, when their real identity is not public knowledge and thus their reputation cannot be damaged to any great degree?

    In practical terms, JJ might also have to surrender that anonymity to bring a legal action against introvert, at which point his own previous comments might be used against him anyway. If both sides are being nasty to each other, can either one of them be libelous? And by surrendering anonymity, he would potentially be increasing any reputation damage that had occurred.

    Anyway, it’s interesting stuff, although obviously a complete waste of everyone’s time.

    Barrister – any thoughts from a legal perspective?

  76. Just to set the record straight: JJ actually agreed below that he made a spelling mistake. He didn’t call that libel. What he called libel was this: “Would you want your home appraised by someone who finds correct usage of ‘their/they’re/there’ overly challenging?”

    … and JJ had a point. Even though this is usually a fun, friendly, anonymous forum, in a small town like Victoria you could track down all the appraisers, identify him, and thereby create rumours or harm to his reputation. In Canadian libel law, it’s up to the defendant (eg., Introvert) to prove that what he said was true (reverse onus)

    It would be very difficult to prove that infrequent spelling mistakes in a casual, unofficial forum actually affects a person’s ability to do their job – probably not.
    But if one of my co-workers repeatedly made grammatical or spelling mistakes in company email or reports, it would. So it depends on the situation.

  77. I’m in Alberta right now and it’s doing fine but overbuilt which is their problem. There is also zero land restrictions here so choose a direction to build. Buy in the wrong place and you could get stuck in an unbuilt subdivision for life. We don’t have that setup. The only way we have a crash is if rates suddenly sky rocket, the banks stop lending, oil goes through the roof sucking population away, MJ is legalized but only through licensed distributors and the independents are all squashed, government is moved to Vancouver, and trump starts world war three….all at the same time. If just rates go up and the bank stops lending things will just slow, not crash. I think we have one more hurrah considering we are within a reasonable affordability range with rates so low. Combine this with last spring’s 30% jump and crazy low inventory you have some basic physiology driving the market up. The simplest is that sales begets sales….

  78. increasing home equity will not bring me happiness or make me a better person.

    Good sentiments for 2017.

    Apparently not a lot of evidence that owning will make you happier than renting
    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/14/realestate/homeownership-the-key-to-happiness.html
    http://www.unpakt.com/blog/whos-happier-renters-or-owners/

    And JJ – please do continue posting. There is occasional trolling and insults, but by the standards of the internet HHV is an oasis of politeness.

  79. Just Jack. I come here to read a few people’s post one here. Yours being one of them. I hope you continue to give your opinion on the blog.
    I read introverts posts to remind me that increasing home equity will not being me happiness or make me a better person.

  80. We get it, you’re a dick. You don’t need to continue reminding us.

    No, I think I will.

    A lot of people who are shy are mistakenly thought of as being aloof. I guess people like introvert is why.

    Shyness and introversion are different.

  81. Truthfully, I suspect that it is next to impossible to predict.

    Given our estimates for prices are between $575,000 and $1,000,000 I’m going to say the bar isn’t very high 🙂 Maybe there is a wisdom of the crowd, we’ll take the average guess as well.

  82. 2017 predictions:
    1/ drop in sales due to lack of inventory
    2/ looking @ 6.5% increase in valuations

    Sales: 8500
    SFH$: 805,000
    MFD$: 398,000
    BoC %: 0.75%
    Teranet June 2017: 178
    Teranet Dec 2017: 187

  83. Introvert is a dick but at least given his or her nick we can be sure that we never have to deal with them in real life. A lot of people who are shy are mistakenly thought of as being aloof. I guess people like introvert is why.

  84. @introvert “blah blah blah spelling”

    We get it, you’re a dick. You don’t need to continue reminding us.

  85. South,

    It’s kind of sad and ironic that you ask the moderator to spend his time limiting the speech of others and yet you spend time writing posts that have little substance other than childish antagonism.

  86. South:

    You cheered me up at the prospect that I might be around twenty years from now. Since I am neither a bear or a bull I dont think my vote on the market has much impact either way. I think there are been good arguments on both sides of the issue. Truthfully, I suspect that it is next to impossible to predict.

  87. Anyone else find it super funny that the three biggest content/volume posters on this blog year after year are too scared to post what they think is going to happen?

    CS, Hawk/Info, Jack

    Cause if they did there would be an actual track record to make fun of when we are all in retirement and Barrister has passed on in 20 years.

    Cause they ain’t gonna get it right. The day that they say the market will go up it will go down.

  88. I was going to say there is no way we are going to hit 1000 sales but actually we only had 1000 more listings this time last year. So at the same sales pace we could hit 9500 even with our reduced inventory. Still very unlikely to hit 10k though.

  89. K here are mine
    10000 sales
    SFH $790k
    Condo $390
    Rate .5%

    I think more people will be listing this spring but it will be gobbled up.
    I think prices won’t go into the 800s because the mix will shift. There is more inventory outside the core.
    Condos will pressure up but they are being. Ugly cheaper and smaller so that will also limit prices.
    Rates will stay the same because they can’t drop them.

    Hope everyone has a good New Years and had a good Christmas.

    PS I would like you to stay and post JJ. You are funny sometimes and post interesting data and I enjoy it when introvert ridicules you for your grammar.

  90. I think these 800k+ SFH average predictions are a little out to lunch.

    Maybe. $835,000 would be 10.7% higher than the current. With current market conditions, the median rise is 16% or $109,000. https://househuntvictoria.ca/market-summary/
    I think something has to ease so I’m not guessing that high, but I think 10% is not completely out to lunch.

  91. I’m constantly astounded by the stupidity of people in general. During my career writing software I’ve seen all kinds of hilarious things. It’s a miracle that some things actually work.

  92. Here goes. Most likely it will be another case of this: https://xkcd.com/386/

    Sales: 9200
    SFH Average: 785,000
    Condo Average: 390,000
    BoC Dec 17: 0.5%
    Teranet 06/2017: 180
    Teranet 12/2017: 185

    Bonus predictions:
    – Christy Clark wins,
    – blue bridge further delayed
    – sales finally stop increasing on a year over year basis so “info” returns triumphantly to HHV saying that her 2012 prediction of “sales will tank” is totally correct.

    Healthy and happy 2017 to all HHV’ers and their families.

  93. Revision…confused and I thought Leo’s $710,000 was some sort of benchmark for this year when now I see it was only Leo’s prediciton. Based on the current YTD average of 754,816 I revise my prediction to

    8200 sales
    $770,000 SFH avg
    $365,000 condo avg
    0.75% interest

  94. I’ll add my condo price prediction- $395k. I do think there will be some price plateauing with these, seeing as they’re much crummier investments.

  95. So Marko, you’re predicting a 3% YOY price drop? That seems at odds with other stuff you’ve written.

  96. Mon Dec 26, 2016:

    Dec Dec
    2016 2015
    Net Unconditional Sales: 429 465
    New Listings: 363 451
    Active Listings: 1,532 2,517

    Please Note

    Left Column: stats so far this month
    Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

  97. Here are my guesses (I’m useless at predictions though)
    Annual Sales: 9800
    SFH Annual Average Price: $775,000
    Condo Annual Average Price: $390,000
    BoC rate Dec 2017: 0.75%

  98. Annual Sales: 8700
    SFH Annual Average Price: $820,000
    Condo Annual Average Price: $430,000
    BoC rate Dec 2017: 0.5%

  99. My 2017 predictions:
    Annual Sales: 9000
    SFH Annual Average Price: $835,000

    Leo, I like how bullish you are! $835,000? Bring it on!

  100. And, per your analysis, isn’t Victoria still pretty affordable today?

    Detached homes are a bit worse than average but below the levels we have seen. So yes more room to move up for prices.
    What will be interesting is what happens when we hit levels that have previously signified a peak. In the 90s and 2008 prices more or less flatlined while interest rates dropped and incomes increased to improve affordability.
    This time around interest rates can hardly drop more so either affordability will break out of historical ranges or we will have a drop or a much longer flat period for incomes to catch up.

  101. Affordability. In 1987 it was excellent. It deteriorated until 1994 when the market topped out.

    So one take-away is that prices can skyrocket for a number of years before affordability gets so bad that prices stagnate (not even drop!). And, per your analysis, isn’t Victoria still pretty affordable today? Such potentially good news for bulls!

    None of these professions require someone to master “their/they’re/there”. If they were claiming to be English professors, then you would have a point.

    I’m not sure he really knows which is correct, which is scary for a man probably in his forties. There are language basics we generally expect every native speaker of adult age to understand, irrespective of profession.

  102. Well, I for one think Introvert’s comment to be unfair: “Would you want your home appraised by someone who finds correct usage of “their/they’re/there” overly challenging?”

    It’s not unreasonable to think that people would take less care with their grammar when responding to an online forum, vs. business correspondence. Especially if you are flinging off a comment from your cellphone. So to imply that JJ is a bad appraiser because he makes grammatical errors is wrong. I have found that Barrister also makes grammatical errors. Does that mean he’s a bad lawyer? Marko makes errors. Does that mean he’s a bad realtor? He used to be a respiratory technician. Does that mean he can’t run an IV? None of these professions require someone to master “their/they’re/there”. If they were claiming to be English professors, then you would have a point. Otherwise, you are just being a jerk.

    My predictions for next year, are the same as they were for this year, because if I keep saying the same thing, maybe I’ll be close one year.
    8500 sales
    $650,000 sfh avg
    $375,000 condo avg
    0.25% interest

  103. 1199 mcmorran pl. Is this really on sale for 600k more than last year sale. Maybe a 100k renovation.

    Is this correct?

  104. Michael

    Assuming trump inflation happens. Metals and mining and industrials are my guess. Throw in some cheap gold index also.

  105. I’m fairly diversified Gwac, but maybe slight overweight financials & energy. Also been adding more Euro/US past few months (financials, telco, some biotech, industrials…)

    Let me know what sectors are your favorite horses 🙂 cheers & merry xmas

  106. Michael, there are many points on your graph where prices rise as interest rates fall.

    Come on now Vicbot 🙂 I never once claimed that prices can’t rise as interest rates fall. What DavidL’s annotated chart shows is that Vic prices usually rise as interest rates rise, that’s all. It will become clear in the next few years IF inflation continues igniting higher bond yields, and home prices.
    It’s a very common misconception. There are a few however who have actually looked at the historical relationship, ie. Blackstone’s CEO Schwarzman “Twenty-five out of 26 times when interest rates went up, home prices went up.”

  107. Michael tsx 20k about time we are still below the 2008 crash. What sector are the leaders next year in your view for the tsx.

    I am 100% in stocks not exactly balanced. Oil gas/ banks and the index. Historical pain led me to not invest in individual stocks about 10 years ago. Only etfs. Any insight I would appreciate.

  108. So how does one explain RE prices more than doubling in five years when interest rates were not historically low?

    Affordability. In 1987 it was excellent. It deteriorated until 1994 when the market topped out. Then prices flatlined until incomes caught up and interest rates declined to the point where affordability was good again.

  109. JJ,

    You seem awfully temperamental today. Who cares if you don’t like what some people say. Correcting others’ grammar isn’t libellous; it just makes the commentator look petty. Just keep posting your numbers and commentary and don’t respond to stuff you don’t like. I think your numbers add a lot to the discussion, whether one agrees or disagrees with your analysis. I actually prefer it when people disagree…better discussion even with the flames and posturing. I know I get something out of it.

    If everyone took a “you’re offending me so I’m going to stop contributing” approach, the board would be pretty empty indeed. Go spend some time with your family and friends over Christmas, then your perspective might shift to see the comments online as consequential as they really are…which is not much. At all.

  110. What I’d like you to explain to me Introvert is why did prices increase so quickly as rates were rising from ’87 to ’90?

    Your theory is not getting any better the 100th time you post that chart. We’ve already established there is no relationship there.

  111. I think that I’m going to head out on a limb here, but I’m seeing the BOC dropping their rate to .25% as a result of economic malaise. The Canadian dollar will suffer for it, as will bond yields which will force mortgage rates higher.

    Victoria could very well follow Vancouver’s lead and sales will fall off considerably. I’ll say 7200 sales. The media will be more bearish than usual and the tide will turn on the Island. Optimistically, because if I’m right prices will certainly be lower, I’ll make the following predictions on price:

    SFH Annual Average Price: $650,000
    Condo Annual Average Price: $280,000

    I can’t even venture a guess on the Teranet index because I haven’t honestly taken the time to understand the measurement.

    This is my first attempt at a prediction on the Victoria market and I will certainly admit that I am not that knowledgeable about your regional market. I just can’t see it being the last man standing in B.C..

    Prediction for the Mainland ….. a lot of pain in the market …… more than the double digit drops that Royal LePage is forecasting.

    Merry Christmas to all.

  112. Is it possible to libel an anonymous forum profile?

    No. It is also not libel if the statement is true. The statement needs to be false and bring an identifiable individual’s reputation into disrepute to be libel. Pointing out a spelling mistake doesn’t meet the test.

  113. Michael, there are many points on your graph where prices rise as interest rates fall.
    89-93, 94-96, 00-04

    So the only conclusion we can draw is “sometimes prices rise when interest rates rise, and sometimes when interest rates fall.”

    There’s no direct cause & effect relationship between the two – I think what’s more important is what’s happening with the economy as a whole, & government incentives/disincentives, household debt, jobs, migration, investment, etc.

    Merry Christmas to all – very thankful we live here and are free enough here to have friendly debates 🙂

  114. Actually, in reflection I have made a New Year’s resolution.

    I don’t mind writing about real estate, but this blog is full of haters whose only purpose is to stifle discussion.

  115. So how does one explain RE prices more than doubling in five years when interest rates were not historically low?

    What I’d like you to explain to me Introvert is why did prices increase so quickly as rates were rising from ’87 to ’90? 🙂

    It would be ironic if Toronto were to burst again in a few years like it did ~1990, sending our prices for another leg higher from interprovincial migration.

  116. “So how does one explain RE prices more than doubling in five years when interest rates were not historically low?”

    Some of the reasons:
    – Economy was still recovering from the 80s, people started moving back to Victoria (instead of out to find jobs in bigger cities)
    – People liked that interest rates were still decreasing from the highs in 1981/82. To them, those interest rates were “historically low” and decreasing – it was all relative
    – Inflation was still very high, so people were used to things becoming more expensive

    That’s why I think it’s so hard to predict future prices – you never get exactly the same set of economic conditions occurring at once, and there are always multiple factors affecting prices.

    eg., Expo 86 & Li Ka-shing have impacted Vancouver & BC real estate for a very long time – independent of interest rates.

  117. But does that give her the right to libel me?

    I was the one libelling you, goofball. totoro handles you with infinitely more patience and grace.

  118. 1987 11.14
    1988 11.60
    198912.05
    1990 13.24
    1991 11.16
    1992 9.52
    1993 8.70

    So how does one explain RE prices more than doubling in five years when interest rates were not historically low?

  119. South,

    I have given my prediction.

    I said that I expect prices to remain stable with the months of inventory and days on market increasing.

    A year ago I was talking about market anomalies occurring that suggested greater volatility in the market. The graphs were showing skewing with asymmetry and large fat tails in the core. And in February prices shot up. I was also mentioning that condo prices were likely to increase. And they did. I also wrote about our market not being a substitute for Vancouver. And that is why we have not taken a hit in prices like Vancouver has to date.

    And from this, you call me a bear that is constantly writing about a crash.

    Sometimes I am bearish and sometimes I’m bullish. But that’s because I call the market how I see it and that market is always changing.

  120. Anyone know what the interest rates were during those years?

    1987 11.14
    1988 11.60
    198912.05
    1990 13.24
    1991 11.16
    1992 9.52
    1993 8.70

  121. Probably for another thread but why would anyone think deferring property taxes is a bad idea?

    I am investigating the effect on getting a mortgage. If that’s OK then I don’t see the downside. Can you beat 2.7% simple interest in your investments? Heck I could use the tax money and pay down the mortgage and still come out ahead. 2.7% simple interest vs 2.79% compound. If you’re over 55 the deal is even better.

  122. I did use the wrong their, they’re, there. Totoro’s right about that. It happens. You respond quickly to another post and don’t check the spelling or usage before hitting send. “he who is without sin cast the first stone”

    But does that give her the right to libel me?

    This blog is suppose to be for an open discussion on real estate. I have no problem if you disagree with what I’ve written. That’s fair, give your opinion but why degrade yourself into personal attacks.

  123. Victoria prices were stagnant and went nowhere for most of the 90s… They appreciated in the early 90s and then affordability became bad and they stayed flat until incomes rose and interest rates fell.

    I stand corrected; prices were pretty static throughout most of the 90s. But that run-up in the late 80s to early 90s was quite something:

    SFH Avg Annual:

    1987: $110,135
    1988: $127,888
    1989: $150,930
    1990: $179,149
    1991: $191,774
    1992: $222,415
    1993: $246,727

    Over five years, prices more than doubled.

    Anyone know what the interest rates were during those years?

  124. Affordability is not the same as price to income or price to rent, which I agree are useless measures.’

    What is the definition of affordability? Maybe I missed or misunderstood this as it seems to me that the way it is being used is whether the income can pay the mortgage on a debt service analysis?

  125. Thanks, will read this article later.

    Doing an income based affordability comparison ignores many important variables and will, imo, result in an inaccurate set of data from which to try to forecast.

    This sentence does not follow from the conclusions of the article as far as I can tell. Affordability is not the same as price to income or price to rent, which I agree are useless measures.’

    As for sizes of units, this is quality adjustment and hides affordability problems. Yes average house sizes have increased and could explain some of the runup, but that doesn’t help someone that wants to buy a new 1000sqft house in the core because that house doesn’t exist anymore. You have to take the housing stock that is available because that’s what people are buying.
    A similar example is with cars. A modern Civic is 10 times better than one from 40 years ago, but that doesn’t mean it should cost 10 times as much, it wouldn’t be affordable. Civic buyers still need it to be about the same price since to afford it. Just like condos are getting smaller to stay affordable to first time buyers.

  126. That would be interesting. Here is a report that has already done some of this analysis:
    https://www.central1.com/sites/default/files/uploads/files/analysis_report/report_file/Housing%20myths.pdf

    The summary:
    Price-to-income (or rent) ratio incorrect valuation metric; widely misused
    Long term average of ratio of income to price is not fixed benchmark; market forces do not cause reversion to mean especially in markets with rising long-term price trend
    Housing valuation is complex exercise requiring more detailed analysis and data than readily available
    Housing prices determined by many demand/supply fundamentals; supply factors almost always overlooked
    Land supply constraints too important to be ignored
    The average size of a home in high density areas is considerably less than in low density areas such as Metro Vancouver. For example, there are reports of apartments less than 100 sq. ft. in Hong Kong
    The median price does not correct or adjust for these housing form and size differences. A more accurate measure would be median price per area but that statistic is very difficult to compile.
    It is a misconception that high prices and poor affordability cause price collapse
    The main risk of a housing crash is from an economic recession – a sudden drop in demand.
    Housing crash predictions based on high price-income ratios reverting to mean are made on inadequate analytical and empirical grounds.
    High housing prices alone do not cause housing recessions.
    Housing prices will decline during the next economic recession.
    High housing prices and poor affordability result in market adjustments to demand and supply.
    Smaller units are constructed, rental demand increases, and some household ‘double up’.
    In Metro Vancouver, about 65% of households are homeowners and 35% are renters.
    In the next 30 years, this changes to less than 60% owners, and more than 40% renters.

    Doing an income based affordability comparison ignores many important variables and will, imo, result in an inaccurate set of data from which to try to forecast.

    Author bio:
    http://www.cbrdi.ca/wp-content/uploads/Click-here-for-Helmut-Pastricks-Bio.pdf

  127. Any comment on this, Leo? Correct me if I’m wrong, but weren’t interest rates about “normal” in the 90s, and Victoria’s prices skyrocketed through that decade.

    Victoria prices were stagnant and went nowhere for most of the 90s… They appreciated in the early 90s and then affordability became bad and they stayed flat until incomes rose and interest rates fell.

    I really need to write a new post showing both prices and rates and the affordability cycle.

  128. I have sat here thinking what I would guess if I had to guess and the answer was I really dont have a clue. My only guess is that the Bank of Canada rate will end the year above .75. I feel like I am not playing the game here but I just dont have a feel at all for where things are going. So I will leave the predictions to people smarter than me.

    MERRY CHRISTMAS to everyone and perhaps we can that the weekend to understand how fortunate we all are.

  129. What did interest rates look like in the 1990s, when real estate prices in Victoria jumped dramatically year after year?

    Any comment on this, Leo? Correct me if I’m wrong, but weren’t interest rates about “normal” in the 90s, and Victoria’s prices skyrocketed through that decade. So ultra low interest rates aren’t necessary for prices to increase (or stay increasing), as you suggested here:

    If you expect 4% real appreciation to continue, that means you either think:
    -Victoria prices will completely detach from local incomes (which has never happened before)
    -Local incomes will increase massively
    – Interest rates will drop further

  130. Come on just jack CS and Hawk, let’s see your predictions for this coming year. This will mark the 10th anniversary of being wrong.

    I went back and looked through old posts. This sites content before this year is 70% just jack posting page long crash predictions going back to before Steve Jobs announced the iPhone!

    That is a LONG time to keep a hobby like this up…

  131. Annual Sales: 8900
    SFH Annual Average Price: $830,000
    Condo Annual Average Price: $420,000
    BoC rate Dec 2017: 0.75%
    Teranet June 2017: 182
    Teranet Dec 2016: 192
    TSX 20K

    Although I’m secretly hoping for a crash late 2017 to cleanse some egos, especially mine 🙂
    Merry Christmas everyone.

  132. My 2017 predictions:

    Annual Sales: 10200
    SFH Annual Average Price: $923000
    Condo Annual Average Price: $478000
    BoC rate Dec 2017: 1.00%
    Teranet June 2017: 190
    Teranet Dec 2016: 196

  133. $575K and Bearkilla has a coronary and his kids reap the life insurance and live happily ever after. 😉

    Merry Christmas bears and bulls. May peace be with you !

  134. …Probably for another thread but why would anyone think deferring property taxes is a bad idea? I am a new resident of BC and thus only eligible for the program in the coming year but it seems like a total no-brainer to me. I get the tax money in my pocket now and for the next twenty years and when I downsize and move on the lawyers will pay my tax bill at the time of sale. Am I missing something?

    It would be an entirely different conversation if the deferred amounts attracted compound interest but they do not.

  135. But if you are saying that house prices will go from appreciating at 7% a year to more like 4% on average then we actually agree more or less.

    That is my best guess. Still greater than inflation which will eventually result in a divergence from income-based affordability.

    In other words, it will not make a substantive difference to most home owners in Victoria.

    If you completely discount the security aspect of having vs. not having say $500,000 that you own and control.

  136. What the home could sell for at any given moment and one’s equity position are relevant to one’s net worth.

    Relevant but still meaningless for most people. How many people borrow against their homes to invest? Quite few, most people just live in them and pay their mortgages.
    When you sell your home to upgrade in the same market your appreciated house price is meaningless as well since everything else has appreciated along with it.

    So I stand by what I said. Unless you borrow against it or sell to move to a cheap market, the appreciation of your home is meaningless. In other words, it will not make a substantive difference to most home owners in Victoria.

  137. and the divergence from income-based affordability

    Not sure why you keep saying this when it hasn’t happened.

    But if you are saying that house prices will go from appreciating at 7% a year to more like 4% on average then we actually agree more or less. A halving of the average appreciation rate is probably about right

  138. You are worth the same as you were when you bought.

    totoro is right, Leo. What the home could sell for at any given moment and one’s equity position are relevant to one’s net worth.

    I am going to try it and post it here as an experiment… Stay tuned.

    Leo, you’re going to defer your property tax? Have you lost your mind?

    In this case the assignment is a risk assessment to see if their is enough value in the home to allow the owners to sell the property with their own agent. … If they don’t come up with the money, their evicted, property locks changed and the property is sold by the law firm’s agent.

    Would you want your home appraised by someone who finds correct usage of “their/they’re/there” overly challenging?

    It’s the average because falling interest rates kept affordability within historical norms. If you expect 4% real appreciation to continue, that means you either think…

    What did interest rates look like in the 1990s, when real estate prices in Victoria jumped dramatically year after year?

  139. OK here’s my effort, excluding Teranet which I don’t really follow:

    Annual Sales: 9500
    SFH Annual Average Price: $850,000
    Condo Annual Average Price: $410,000
    BoC rate Dec 2017: 0.5%

  140. Not sure what your point is. Mortgage rates in 1991 were 10%. So prices increased from $271,000 to a million while mortgage rates dropped by three quarters. Clearly they won’t drop by three quarters again in the next 20 years so why would you expect continued appreciation at the same rate?

    Because of the data that you posted here Leo: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2016/03/17/a-brief-history-of-prices/

    House prices have actually increased at 7% without adjusting for inflation if I understand these stats correctly? I’m saying that for a projection I use 4% without any inflation adjustment so I am not predicting future increases “at the same rate”.

    Given past performance well beyond the past 20 years which you are attributing to lower interest rates, and the divergence from income-based affordability seen in other appreciation-based housing markets, it is my opinion that it is quite likely that this is what we will see happen in our lifetimes in Oak Bay, Fairfield, James Bay and Fernwood. I don’t follow other areas close enough to hazard a guess.

    And, as I stated, this is my best guess and what I use for a projection. I don’t have a crystal ball and prices are quite likely to stall or drop sometime in the future as the current rate of appreciation is unsupportable imo. And if you live in other areas of Canada or even Langford you need to analyze past performance and current trends as housing markets are local. Some don’t even keep up with inflation long-term.

    As for next year, I don’t know what will happen with the market. Buy when you are ready and can afford it and only if you are prepared to hold through a downturn and uptick in rates.

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