I’m not good at rhyming.
The market pulled out a surprise bump in the last week to exceed the already incredibly high sales projections we’ve been putting out all month. 1286 sales. All of the 2000s we never broke 1000 sales, and even in the next strongest April (1991) we only had 1003.
Meanwhile inventory has actually decreased from March to April. That has literally never happened in Victoria as far as I can tell. It’s not because of a lack of new listings either. They are coming on at quite a reasonable clip but sales are just so high that nothing is building up.
Taking a look at the months of inventory and the associated effect on price, we see the parabolic curve continuing. Sustainable? Definitely not. But so far no sign of slowing.
If we increase the rolling average to 12 months, we see how the trend in both price and months of inventory is only getting stronger.
Meanwhile the paradox of the foreign buyer continues. We hear of people being outbid on the ground by Vancouver buyers. On this blog we see comments of Vancouverites taking on the pilgrimage on BC Ferries in order to bid over ask on countless properties. We hear hushed conversations in coffee shops about the neighbours place that sold in 24 hours and to… shhh… outsiders.
On the other hand we hear from the VREB that 72.5% of buyers in 2016 were locals, which is an increase from the 70.5% we had last year. Yes in terms of actual buyers on the ground there are more out of town buyers since the total sales are up, but fundamentally, this market is still primarily driven by local buyers. The outside buyers might have been the catalyst for this fire but locals are keeping it going and are paying those over asks more than anyone else.
Meanwhile some chatter about whether this a supply driven or demand driven market. While any real economist would be groaning at the misuse of those terms, it is interesting to see the difference between the hot market in the mid 2000s and now based on new listings and sales. While market conditions were similarly hot, in the 2000s we had a low rate of new listings and relatively high sales to create those conditions, while currently we are getting properties listed at a pretty high rate, but sales are just so extremely high that they all get absorbed immediately.
The market summary has more charts. At this rate I am going to have to slot some more adjectives below ludicrous into the code and make the price predictor more fine grained. In this market I think the 14% annual increase for SFHs is significantly too conservative.