Triple A Rated wrote in the comments: “At an open house last weekend a Realtor told me that he expected a lot more listings from May until around Mid July. He also expected Sales to slow.”
Is the realtor basing that on actual past market performance? We looked at this a similar way back in the spring by taking the average conditions in the past 20 years, but only with inventory and MOI.
Here is our usual cycle when we mash together 20 years of real estate history.
So it seems the realtor was more or less correct. Inventory increases from May but only for another month or so, while sales and new listings are expected to drop. Months of inventory is typically lowest in March when sales rise and inventory hasn’t built up, with April and May close behind.
That might be a bit too heavy handed though. Let’s just take a look at the hot market of 2002 to 2006.
Looks a little different now but still fundamentally similar seasonal patterns. During our last hot market, the spring was relatively stronger than the fall, and inventory tended to be maintained at the more consistent level through the summer and fall. In any case, don’t expect a slowdown for the next 6 weeks at least.