Every year we make predictions on this blog at the start of the year. We don’t claim to be prescient, but unlike the economists and real estate industry, at least we’re confident enough to show how far off the predictions were.
Without further ado here’s the roundup of results.
|User||Annual Sales||SFH Average||BoC Rate||Teranet June||Teranet Dec|
*estimate until VREB releases their 2015 annual summary.
Overall no one anticipated the huge jump in activity that we saw this year and even the high guesses were quite far off the actuals. That said, Dasmo scored two wins by correctly forecasting the second Bank of Canada rate cut and getting closest on June Teranet value, while Chris was closest on average price and number of sales.
What’s going to happen in 2016?
Even though dark clouds are gathering over the Canadian economy as a whole, predicting whether those will turn into a storm for Victoria is fundamentally impossible. I am going to assume that nothing truly disastrous will happen, and the local market will continue to be mostly driven by local conditions. Those conditions are pretty favourable to sellers right now, and I think we haven’t seen the end of improving market conditions, so I’m going to take the automated forecast as a lower bound. I also think we’re in for another rate cut this year. The loonie will suffer but the tourism industry won’t.
Annual Sales: 8800 (rev. Jan 18)
SFH Annual Average Price: $710,000
BoC rate Dec 2016: 0.25%
Teranet June 2016: 158
Teranet Dec 2016: 165
Any other categories we should be predicting on? What else will 2016 bring for the Victoria market?