2015 Predictions Roundup

Every year we make predictions on this blog at the start of the year. We don’t claim to be prescient, but unlike the economists and real estate industry, at least we’re confident enough to show how far off the predictions were.

Without further ado here’s the roundup of results.

UserAnnual SalesSFH AverageBoC RateTeranet JuneTeranet Dec
LeoVictoria7200$610,0000.75%138140
Dustin6750$619,0001.25%138138
Caveat Emptor6950$600,0000.75%----
Chris7500$625,0000.75%----
Marko7000$610,0000.75%138138
Patriotz------133128
Dasmo7099$620,0000.5%139142.5
SJ6900$620,0001.0%138148
Actual8295$646,000*0.5%143.9150.2

*estimate until VREB releases their 2015 annual summary.

Overall no one anticipated the huge jump in activity that we saw this year and even the high guesses were quite far off the actuals.   That said, Dasmo scored two wins by correctly forecasting the second Bank of Canada rate cut and getting closest on June Teranet value, while Chris was closest on average price and number of sales.

What’s going to happen in 2016?

Even though dark clouds are gathering over the Canadian economy as a whole, predicting whether those will turn into a storm for Victoria is fundamentally impossible.   I am going to assume that nothing truly disastrous will happen, and the local market will continue to be mostly driven by local conditions.  Those conditions are pretty favourable to sellers right now, and I think we haven’t seen the end of improving market conditions, so I’m going to take the automated forecast as a lower bound.  I also think we’re in for another rate cut this year.   The loonie will suffer but the tourism industry won’t.

2016 Predictions:

Annual Sales:   8800 (rev. Jan 18)
SFH Annual Average Price: $710,000
BoC rate Dec 2016: 0.25%
Teranet June 2016:  158
Teranet Dec 2016: 165

Any other categories we should be predicting on?   What else will 2016 bring for the Victoria market?

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137 thoughts on “2015 Predictions Roundup

  1. Victoria with a population of 80,017 has 37 houses for sale
    Oak Bay with a population of 18,015 has 33 houses for sale
    Langford with a population of 29,228 has 124 houses for sale

    If Victoria had the same ratio as Langford we would have 340 listings
    If Victoria had the same ratio as Oak Bay we would have 147 listings

    So why are Victorians not putting their homes up for sale?

    Maybe they can’t move not having enough equity to move up the property ladder? Increasing prices just means the equity gap gets wider to move onto the next home.

    https://youtu.be/XyV69OABjxg

  2. Fair enough, but RBCs affordability index would include all those costs, and it shows much more affordable now than 1990. We’re partners on a building that has consistently returned over 10% however we’ve been doing some updating and increasing rents, so it isn’t without the odd headache. I see in the TC that Starlight Investments have been increasing their rents ~30% or so, up to $1775 for a standard 2 bd (older buildings). But I agree with you that the returns for those who haven’t been raising rents, would be slowly declining.

  3. Marko, can you tell me how much 388 Vincent went for? Thanks!

    And maybe off topic, but for everyone else, would you ever buy a house that has been extensively renovated or added on? I’ve always been nervous about other people’s standards… I must be a cynic and assume everyone else is cutting corners and doing things on the cheap or improperly. But whenever I see additions or big renos, the devil on my shoulder has lots to say.

  4. Up 200 on TSX after down 1200 in less than 3 weeks you mean ? Since most of your calls on the US markets, the Dow could barely hold 100 and down almost 2000 in less than 3 weeks. Yep I’m bummed, lol.

  5. I don’t think you can say that houses are more or less affordable on the limited information that I gave since the cost of housing isn’t limited to just a mortgage payment. As anyone that owns a home knows there are a lot more costs than just a mortgage payment to owning a house.

    There has also been a substantial increase over the years in property taxes, utility rates, municipal fees, insurance, repairs, etc. Those all should be included if you want to determine if housing is more or less affordable today.

    So it may depend on how “affordable” is defined.

    But I think most people won’t need a chart saying how affordability has changed one way or the other. They know that making ends meet today has become a lot more challenging.

    Even as a landlord rents have fallen behind market appreciation and the return on a new investment is negligible. Apartment buildings used to return 9 percent now it’s only 1 or 2 percent. It’s not worth the risk to buy them today.

  6. Hawk, don’t let 200 up on the markets get you all down & delusional.

    Jack, so you’re saying houses are about twice as affordable today as in 1990? Are you turning bullish?
    RBCs affordability index would agree with you, I just find it strange that you are bringing it up. I’m fairly sure we’re well on our way for the 80s repeat. I just received an appraisal today for $145k more than I paid.

  7. Michael , the best I can do is the first quarter of 1990 when the median price for a house in the core was $170,000 at around 9% interest or $825 per 100K.

    Today we’re about $655,000 at 3% interest or $475 per 100K

    But comparing the different medians is difficult as the types of homes in demand has changed. We’re more concerned about owning a mini hotel today than a house. And people back in 1991 were not buying to the maximum that they could afford as the expected to pay off their mortgage in less than 20 years.

    Today people don’t ever expect to pay off their mortgage. They’re just long time renters from the bank. Or short term renters depending on the interest rate and/or rental market.

  8. I dunno Mike, all your picks you pumped the last few months are all getting smoked. XOM, Phillips 66, Celegene,FM, Teck etc etc and all the other 20 odd stocks you say you own.

    Whats a one day reaction to JT pumping hard at Davos and the Euros saying they are going to pump more QE in a couple of months ? Short lived move IMO.

  9. back to where you bought it a few days ago,lol

    oh dear Hawk…if you had checked you’d see it was in the 68 cent range a few days ago. Now it’s much higher. If it still goes a bit lower I’ll be ok with getting ~50% more than where I hedged to USD a few years ago.

    Have I mentioned the ‘80s replay’ here from time to time… ?? Lol

    Could someone check how much house prices increased between 85-95.

  10. Looks like Scam HAM is hitting Vancouver with no regard to provincial laws. Funny how they don’t want to talk to reporters who are trying ask a few legit questions.

    “Suncrowdfunding is associated with Julia Lau, who was one of Vancouver’s top real estate agents until she agreed to the “permanent surrender” of her licence last January in lieu of a disciplinary investigation into her activities by the Real Estate Council of BC.

    (the RECBC initially said in its notice that Lau had received a “lifetime ban” but this wording was changed upon legal advice; a spokeswoman said Lau had signed a statutory declaration that she had surrendered her licence permanently).”

    http://www.scmp.com/comment/blogs/article/1903525/crowdfunders-are-targetting-vancouver-real-estate-tapping-investors

  11. Recurse, thanks for the feedback!

    1145 May Street, I think this is a good deal actually. If I wasn’t happy were I was I would probably make an offer on this. R1-B zoning + over 669 m2 lot size means you can build up to 420 m2 (4,500 sq/ft house). I would throw a luxurious 1000 sq/ft two bedroom/two bath suite into the basement – should rent for $1,500-$1,600 in that area. 3,500 sq/ft upper two levels and a large south facing yard. If you did a saavy owner build you could probably build it for <$800k.

    There just aren’t very many R1-B lots in Fairfield over 669 m2. It is a bit unique. A lot of lots are R1-G or R1-B and less than 669 m2.

    147 Olive (2,856 finished and 5,880 sq/ft lot with east facing yard) went for $1.42 million recently.

  12. “It’s a good sign the loonie took flight”

    I bet it is, back to where you bought it a few days ago,lol. BMO prediction this morning is for 67 by spring/summer. Just another dead cat bounce.

    I’d say 1145 May is another sign of a market top. That’s an expensive lot, Fairfield or not.

  13. Sure have been some great deals this week. It’s a good sign the loonie took flight… she bounced right on schedule as per ’86.

  14. Gold has it’s place dasmo otherwise why hasn’t it crashed back under $1000 with the pressure of the US dollar rise ? If the dollar falters under global slowdown pressure, it could make another run to $1500 over the next year or so.

    As per China, growth is the major factor. If the main driver of the global economy for over a decade is slowing down to 25 year lows, that is a big deal. Many other articles out there the past few days that many economists and financial people (even one of the big Chinese provincial leaders) don’t believe the numbers they are putting out.

  15. Careful having too much faith in gold Hawk. When Will Russia and China start selling in quantity? China to prop up it’s markets and Russia just to stay afloat. Low oil is going to last another six months at least and Russia is hurting bad.

  16. Hey, longtime reader, seldom poster. I’m not an expert but I’ve spent a fair amount of time reading the RTA and rental policies. There’s no problem when rental increases due to occupancy or limits on occupancy are stated up front in the rental agreement. If the specific terms are not identified there is no provision I’ve seen that allows for rental increases beyond the max annual % due to occupancy changes although the landlord go to dispute resolution and try to prove a legitimate reason for limiting the occupancy after attempting to resolve directly with the tenant.

    Otherwise if the landlord wanted to increase rent over the max annual % they would have to go through dispute resolution to show the rental fell into one of the prescribed conditions dealing with unforeseeable or extraordinary circumstances and direct events impacting residential operating costs/financing or that it was substantially below market value and they cite a lower bound example 20% lower than neighborhood norms.

    RTB guide section – Additional Person(s) Joining the Household
    http://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/housing-and-tenancy/residential-tenancies/guides/act_english.pdf

    Rent Increase Policy Guideline pdf
    http://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/housing-tenancy/residential-tenancies/during-a-tenancy/rent-increases/additional-rent-increase

  17. Re: Predictions

    I predicted that the market wouldn’t crash before the election. So I was right on that!

    Looking further forward, I predict that the Federal Government’s economic strategy will be to ramp up an infrastructure program as large as necessary to get the economy growing at a decent pace. This could drive the deficit well over the announced $10 billion. In 1984, Pierre Trudeau’s government ran a deficit of over $30 billion when the economy was only one fifth its present size. We might, therefore, see a deficit of $100 billion or more if that is necessary to achieve the government’s economic objectives. But as stimulus spending expands, the positive impact of the C$ devaluation will begin to kick in. The combined effects of stimulus spending and export growth with import substitution will allow the BoC to raise rates (justified by acknowledging that we really do have inflation) and drive up the value of the C$ toward the next election. Therefore, I predict first a slowing in the RE market and then either a flattening or a fall by 2020. Recovery of the C$ will of course occur sooner if Russia is driven into bankruptcy and oil prices then recover.

  18. is it okay to advertise a rental property as, for example, $1,200 based on single occupancy and $1,300 based on double occupancy

    We saw this occasionally when we were renting. Seems perfectly reasonable if you are covering some of the utilities that you would expect two people to use more, so you pass that on. However $100 seems steep as an addon.

  19. “The house isn’t attractive to foreign owners. It would be the lot that they would want to build a contemporary home on and completely change the landscaping.”

    If Rutland wants to attract some of that HAM they best drop the price abit. Art Cashin was on CNBC saying he’s hearing of big derivatives problems in Hong Kong.

    If China does the “get it over with” 50% cut in the yuan as Cashin and others have suggested may happen then kiss the HAM good bye in BC. There will be no reason to move cash out to avoid a declining yuan, it will already have happened.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-20/what-really-happening-china-my-career-basically-ended-today

  20. Re Rutland Rd.

    The house isn’t attractive to foreign owners. It would be the lot that they would want to build a contemporary home on and completely change the landscaping.

    Implying, I assume, that no sane local would pay anywhere near the asking.

    But it would be sad to see it torn down. Did you see the genuine red vinyl seating in the kitchen dining nook and the chrome counter edges? Really cool.

  21. I think the agent for Jutland is just trying to expand the market by including 8 in her asking price as some cultures consider the number 8 to be lucky. However, the number 8 should be in the address not the asking price.

    The house isn’t attractive to foreign owners. It would be the lot that they would want to build a contemporary home on and completely change the landscaping. In that case the current owner should apply to have their civic address changed to include as many 8’s as possible. But no 4’s. 4’s are bad as they sound like the word for death. And few would want to live at 90 death death, Rutland. Better to live at 90 lucky, lucky, Rutland.

    Although, personally I like the address 1313 Mockingbird Lane

    https://youtu.be/ibApFtlCMjs

  22. Random question maybe someone can answer….is it okay to advertise a rental property as, for example, $1,200 based on single occupancy and $1,300 based on double occupancy…or is that considered discrimination (for example, against single parents)?

    I called the tenancy branch this morning and they said they didn’t care but it didn’t seem like they were sure.

  23. “You don’t have a little ticker telling you how much your condo is worth every second though….”

    I do have a little ticker showing me how much the mortgage dropped each month though 🙂

  24. “Is that the rule now? If it don’t sell this month, raise the price to keep in line with the market. Hey, everyone, better buy now or be priced out for ever.”

    On some properties it makes sense. Like a box in Gordon Head that didn’t sell two years ago. However, really frustrating when doing listing presentation and sellers think their property out in the middle of nowhere should be listed higher than it was a few years ago (when it didn’t sell). If your property didn’t sell two years ago price was probably too high so unless in a very specific area of the core you probably need to go back in at the same price and hope the market has caught up to what was overpriced two years ago.

  25. Wow, the Sky’s the limit:

    Take a look at 2990 Rutland Road. First listed at $2.5 million, almost twice the assessed value:

    http://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx

    It’s now relisted at $2,588,888.00

    https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16507601/2990-Rutland-Rd-Victoria-British-Columbia-V8R3R5

    Is that the rule now? If it don’t sell this month, raise the price to keep in line with the market. Hey, everyone, better buy now or be priced out for ever.

  26. As I’ve been saying for years…..beyond RRSPS/TSFAs I lean towards cash in real estate investment properties over non-registered stocks.

    Even my RRSPs down 6.9% since the New Year and I have almost zero exposure to oil; TRP.To being the closest.

    On the other hand all my real estate investments have yet to have a month of vacancy, all cash flow positive, interest rates have dropped on all of them since I signed the mortgages, market going up in terms of prices.

    I really want to buy some Tesla stock right now as I have man crush on Elon Musk but what’s the point with the CND at 0.68 cents….stock is $195 US but $285 CND, lol.

  27. DOW blew through August levels and now at October 2013 levels. TSX at 3 year lows. So much for missing out the best 10 days of the year, just avoided the worst 13….but on the bright side my pot stock is up and gold is breaking $1100. 😉

  28. Interest rates on hold. Poloz didn’t have the nuts to drop it again. He did mention inflation is showing up. Oil down to $27. Bummer about your Netflix dasmo.

  29. Our landlord has offered to sell the house we rent to us as well. Recommendations for lawyers, house inspectors, and appraisers welcome! Or advice on how to pick a good one…

  30. I experienced the increase in demand owning rental properties. In 2012 I listed and a reasonable amount responded. Again in 2013. Then when the tenant was going to leave in 2014 I listed and got 80 responses in one day, shut down the ad and then had the tenant ask if he could stay. He did leave but now I rented the place without listening it at all. (It changed hands many times because I was looking for shorter term tenants at the time). I’m returning to the shire in the spring and will be renting. Our main house is rented out right now (also didn’t have to list it). I’ll let y’all know what the rental scene is like.

  31. Now what does that mean? Can you or I not find a place to rent tomorrow?

    Sure, although one would expect rental rates to increase faster with lower vacancy rates. Would be interesting to compare CMHC data on average rents to rental vacancies and see if there is any relationship.

  32. And so we have the lowest in Canada.

    Now what does that mean? Can you or I not find a place to rent tomorrow?

    I’ve not heard of anyone not being able to find rental accommodation in the City.

    I don’t think CMHC’s reported rate at 0.6% indicates a drastic shortage of available apartments. It is low but it isn’t a hardship on anyone to find a place to live.

    There are probably more rentals available in the city than houses or condos to buy.

  33. But you don’t know that. All you’re judging your answer from is that the number seems low to you.

    Even at 0.6% anyone of us can go out in afternoon and find an apartment to rent. Craigslist showed 400 for rent in the core just today.

    Maybe 0.6% is normal?

    As a condo owner, what does that 0.6% apartment vacancy rate mean to you anyway?

    And what would a high vacancy rate be?

    I understand why CMHC is going to discontinue publishing the vacancy rates. The rates have lost all meaningfulness.

    I would rather follow the disconnection and connection rates with BC Hydro.

  34. At a .6% vacancy rate we can absorb more units easily…

    Agreed. I’d be concerned about the rentals if vacancy rate was still where it was a couple years ago. Right now I think it can be absorbed and in fact is desperately needed.

  35. 0.6% is low. But that’s for the entire Victoria CMA.

    But what happens when you dump a couple hundred units in just one small downtown area?

  36. Those proposed rental towers with hundreds of units are a wild card. This is head to head competition with individual downtown condos used as rentals.

    I’m thinking the purpose built rentals are going to rob most of the tenants from the downtown condo rental market.

    A tenant would be a lot more secure living in a rental tower than in a condo that the owner could sell at any time.

    Condos are much much nicer than rentals in terms of the building, amenities, interior finishing. Take a look at http://www.hudsonmews.com/ – go to gallery and take a look at the kitchen, for example. It isn’t comparable to a newer condo.

  37. “Or is Poloz a double-breasted liar propping up RE with negative real interest rates? ”

    Poloz is the problem, he says one thing and does the other. Thinks real estate is over valued by 30% then drops the rates twice in a year. Tomorrow should be interesting. If he drops rates again then look out below for the loonie. He should show some faith and pop the rates up a quarter point.

    Inflation is raging in food prices and provincial taxes, as per MSP, ICBC, etc and in other imported goods. Toss in China growth numbers out today at lowest in 25 years. Many economic balls in the air, with stock markets losing all their big morning gains.

  38. Those proposed rental towers with hundreds of units are a wild card. This is head to head competition with individual downtown condos used as rentals.

    I’m thinking the purpose built rentals are going to rob most of the tenants from the downtown condo rental market.

    A tenant would be a lot more secure living in a rental tower than in a condo that the owner could sell at any time.

    What makes buying a downtown condo as an investment is that the vacancy rate is very low. It isn’t zero but it is low.

    A higher turn over rate of tenants may cause more investors to sell and eliminate future appreciation in the condo market. And really that’s all ya got to hope for when buying a condo these days.

    To get the high rents in a condo you need to buy in a newer building in a downtown location. Nothing older than 10 years and on the downtown side of Vancouver and Yates. Keep it for five years and sell it before everything inside needs to be updated.

  39. There’s something puzzling to me about the current economic state of Canada.

    The price of oil has dropped to essentially nothing in the case of bitumen, and the Canadian dollar has fallen as a consequence by about 35% and is expected to go lower, yet the BoC says inflation is practically zero. How can that be when we have this massive currency devaluation against our largest trade partner and we have the largest share of GDP traded internationally than probably any country on earth?

    Russia, which sells less oil per capita than Canada, has been forced by the oil price collapse to devalue the ruble by over 50% and increase interest rates to, currently, around 12%, which is about the rate of acknowledged inflation in Russia.

    So my question is this: why is inflation not raging in Canada, driving interest rates into double digits, and crashing RE? Or is Poloz a double-breasted liar propping up RE with negative real interest rates? Comments would be appreciated.

  40. I think Jeff Rubin is the guy to watch for insight into what’s going to happen next in the resource sector. Whatever his next big prediction is do the opposite. It’s a guaranteed win.

    LOL

    His latest book says globalization is ending because the high cost of oil is making marine transportation too expensive. Meantime, high sulfur oil, such as is used to power marine transportation, is reported to be selling in the US for less than nothing, while gasoline is selling for under 50 cents a gallon, or about 13 cents a liter – which makes me wonder, why did I have to pay $1.12 a liter the last time I filled my tank here in Victoria?

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-18/negative-oil-prices-arrive-koch-brothers-refinery-pays-050-north-dakota-crude

  41. “All the rentals towers going up downtown will add to stock but at the same time I really think it will make downtown more vibrant and an attractive place to live.”

    “Vibrant” and “attractive”. The two most over used words in a condo salesman’s/developers website, brochures and vocabulary. Usually means that sales are slowing down and a top is near.

    Expecting this to keep going til 2023 while Canada is one major pile of economic doo doo with no way out other than a middle east war to push up oil, is wishful thinking. But if you are in the game for pure profit and maxed out on leverage then what else can you say ? Tunnel-vision at the extreme.

    The key part of the article is:

    “This has also stoked hot housing markets, along with concerns that many Canadians could be getting in over their heads with cheap mortgages and face a financial crisis if the residential market begins to fall.”

    “What matters more for financial vulnerability is not so much the level of the debt relative to income, but rather the capacity of households to meet their debt service obligations.”

  42. I wonder if Norway and other European nations with high debt to income ratios are as obsessed with real estate as Canadians are?

    As Canadians we seem to have put all of our eggs in one basket hinging our financial futures on real estate.

    The barrier to home ownership is quite low and most Canadians can buy at least a condominium. And a lot of us have leveraged ourselves into multiple properties.

    So where has all this money come from?

    https://youtu.be/X18RADltRVQ

  43. If we start to see some of the proposed multi-family complexes moth balled this spring, that may be the sign to sell your investment properties, at least your rental condos.

    I think I’ll keep my rental condos -> https://youtu.be/ipB4XVtl7J4

    All the rentals towers going up downtown will add to stock but at the same time I really think it will make downtown more vibrant and an attractive place to live.

  44. Best to get out at the top and buy back in at the bottom.

    10-4 good buddy Jack IV, over and out 🙂

    Out @ top ‘81
    In @ bottom ‘85
    Out @ top ‘95
    In @ bottom ‘99
    Out @ top late ‘09
    In @ bottom ‘13
    Out @ top ~‘23

  45. Real Estate is a rich mans’ game. The low buy in at the table (5%) is necessary to encourage leveraging new money into the game. Which is needed to keep the people at the table. Otherwise, the players cash in and leave.

    As long as the economy can create new jobs or encourage rental investments things should be fine.

    If we start to see some of the proposed multi-family complexes moth balled this spring, that may be the sign to sell your investment properties, at least your rental condos.

    If you’re waiting for prices to decline before making your decision to sell, in my opinion, you’re watching the wrong indicators. Best to get out at the top and buy back in at the bottom.

  46. A lot of that debt is likely due to purchasing a second, a third or more rental properties.

    So it isn’t just the rise in the interest rate that should be watched. An adverse change in the employment participation rate and basement suite vacancy rate can sewer a local real estate market too. If your rental properties are going vacant and you can not lease them up at rents to cover your costs then you will be forced to sell.

    Michael is quite diligent in pointing out how Victoria is doing better than most of Canada when it comes to unemployment and apartment vacancy rates.

    But I wonder Is being better -enough to stop a market correction?

    Being better didn’t help John Jacob “Jack” Astor IV

  47. The key takeaway from the report is…

    Measured relative to household assets, household debt has moderated In recent years. In the third quarter of 2015, household debt accounted for 17.0 per cent of household assets.

    17% is near the long term average.

    Besides, for D/I ratio, we’re only highest now out of the G7 countries. If we near ~250% D/I (like Norway and other European) by 2026 as our peak millenials reach their FTB age, that will be somewhat newsworthy.

  48. Low inventory because many are too broke to move up or too underwater to sell and rent ?

    Canadians’ household debt climbs to highest in G7 in world-beating borrowing spree

    “OTTAWA — Canadian households could soon be carrying the heaviest debt-to-income loads among its country peers, reaching 174 per cent later this year, according to a new report by the country’s budget watchdog.

    The Parliamentary Budget Officer said Tuesday that Canadian households are now more indebted than those in any other Group of Seven nation, having piled up the biggest increase in debt-to-income since 2000.

    In fact, since the third quarter of 2015, household debt in this country reached 171 per cent of disposable income”

    http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canadians-household-debt-highest-in-g7-with-crunch-on-brink-of-historic-levels-pbo-warns

  49. Yowsers… brent oil up ~3%, SPY up ~2% and the loon up almost a cent in overnight trade. Must have been some great economic numbers out of China tonight.

  50. I think limited quality of half decent inventory will hold back crazy sales numbers.

    Could be. Although 2005 we had 8500 sales with average inventory of only 1700 (last year it was 2650) so lots of sales can happen with rock bottom inventory.

    I think you’re right that there isn’t as much room to move up. I don’t think we’re in for a multiyear double digit growth cycle, but I think 2016 is going to be very strong.

  51. sold for $600,000. Same home was on the market in 2013 as low as $539,900 and it didn’t move at that price at that time. What a difference two years makes.

  52. @marko Can you tell what 1690 North Dairy sold for? (MLS®# 358987) Listed for $599,000 and didn’t last long.

  53. “If you’re going to be buying up and then renting out your original home you’ll need a lot more equity today than before.

    That trend is what CMHC has been trying to cool by reducing how much equity you may use, since you are speculating on house prices increases rather than income that would support the purchase. This is a trend that got us high prices and low listings.”

    What program are you referring too? I’m unaware of anyone using their home equity to do this myself – unless you are referring to changes in the HELOC rules that happened two years ago?

  54. Whoops. My prediction was based on incorrectly summing up the sales in 2003/4/5 as a comparison. I had summed up new listings and thought there were 10,500 sales in 2003. I’m lowering my estimate a bit but I still think we are going to exceed 2015 by a good chunk.

  55. If you’re going to be buying up and then renting out your original home you’ll need a lot more equity today than before.

    That trend is what CMHC has been trying to cool by reducing how much equity you may use, since you are speculating on house prices increases rather than income that would support the purchase. This is a trend that got us high prices and low listings.

    Both the federal and provincial governments are not keen to see this happen as it isn’t increasing home ownership in the country. It’s concentrating wealth in one group of home owners and inflating the price of houses with suites. That drives up prices for homes that are along bus routes to the University as everyone seems to want to rent individual rooms to students these days. It also concentrates the market into a small geographical area.

    So today Greater Victoria isn’t one market. It’s two markets.

    One is the core districts that seems to be doing well and then there is the rest which includes the Western Communities, Saanich Peninsula and the Gulf Islands. Where you can still buy a house for pre 2007 prices.

    I think there are some good deals to be had on real estate today, but they aren’t where most of the buying public are looking. I suppose it’s because these are long term holding properties while most buyers today are thinking short term.

  56. I have similar thinking as Marko. I think lack of inventory will limit sales. With low vacancy rates and low mortgage rates people can trade up without selling. I know a few that have. I also agree that prices have more resistance at these levels. I’m 2003 I could buy a house for less money than Ineas renting a townhouse for. We aren’t there right now…

  57. It’s very unlikely the volume of sales of all properties in all areas will be less than last years. We might match the volumes of 2010, but still under those of 2006, 2007 and 2008.

    Interestingly or not, the number of current listings for all properties in all areas is about the same as in January 2008. January of 2008 there was less listings than there is today. 12 months later in 2009 the number of listings had more than doubled.

    This illustrates that we have been through times when there was a shortage of listings and how markets can change dramatically in 12 months.

    But before that happens, I think we will have to see a drop in demand that will see listings slowly increase until potential sellers see too many “For Sale” signs on the lawns and rush to list their homes fearing the market may be turning.

  58. That’s why I’m surprised at the low sales guesses overall. Lots of even to last year or even lower. I can’t see the total being less than 2015 unless there is some cataclysmic event.

    The reason I predicted (8,000) slightly lower than last year (8295).

    8,000 still puts upward pressure on prices.

    I think limited quality of half decent inventory will hold back crazy sales numbers. It is really difficult to find nice, clean, professionally updated homes in the core.

    I don’t think this market can be sustained like 2002-2007 due to absolute values. What I mean by this is in 2002 the median price of a home in Victoria was $265,000. A 10% increase put it only at $291,500. Even a 20% increase put it at only $318,000. I feel like the market had room to go up.

    The median right now is $567,500. A 10% this year would put as at $624,250; a huge absolute number increase. I have buyers right now with family incomes of approx. $150,000/year struggling with affordability with last years core run up and I am not sure how much higher things can go. Are we really going to go the way of Vancouver where local incomes having pretty much nothing to do with home prices? Doubt it.

    The shitty stock market has to weigh in on consumer confidence at some point.

    My overall prediction is the market will go up a bit more this year and later in the year sales will slow; however, I really don’t anticipate a price correction whatsoever. We might slow and then have another 2 to 3 years of flat prices like 2014.

    What I noticed from 2010 to 2014 when sales volumes were incredibly low is a lot of people simply just rented their properties out due to low vacancy and insanely cheap mortgages. To see serious downward pressure on prices in Victoria I think it would have to be a massive barrage of things like stock market collapse, vacancy rate increase, interest rates going up, etc.

  59. Will blow last year’s January out of the water.

    That’s why I’m surprised at the low sales guesses overall. Lots of even to last year or even lower. I can’t see the total being less than 2015 unless there is some cataclysmic event.

  60. Mid month to mid month

    This year is starting out bleak for most looking to purchase a home in the city core. Just 2.3 months of inventory and new listings dribbling onto the market at at rate of 1.1 new to everyone that sells.

    The volume of mid-month to mid month house sales in the core is down from 148 to 96 in the last 30 days. And It takes sellers longer to find a buyer which is now up from 25 to 43 days.

    Despite the intense pressure for prices to rise, the mid month to mid month median price has come down from $640,000 to around $630,000 for a house in the city.

    My guess is that this is due to the season and holidays. Since fewer people want to make a house move in the winter and accordingly listings drop along with the interest to purchase.

    I don’t think there is anything evil or positive in these numbers. It’s just Victorians going along with their everyday life oblivious to the events in the world.

  61. Will blow last year’s January out of the water.

    Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:55am:

    Jan Jan
    2016 2015
    Net Unconditional Sales: 225 351
    New Listings: 468 1,027
    Active Listings: 2,399 3,283

    Please Note
    Left Column: stats so far this month
    Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

  62. I think Jeff Rubin is the guy to watch for insight into what’s going to happen next in the resource sector. Whatever his next big prediction is do the opposite. It’s a guaranteed win.

  63. sanctions being lifted might have some counter balance later since a new market has opened up for western countries …

    Seems like grasping at straws if this is an attempt to link Victoria RE prices with improved prospects for exports to Iran!

  64. 2016 predictions: TSX plummets. Garth capitulates, sells his diversified portfolio and goes all in on gold and Vancouver condos.

    What better signal to sell RE would you need?

  65. The broader market is being impacted by low oil not only because of the fear it generates but because the Saudis and other oil reliant governments are selling assets to pay the bills. What is interesting is the drag of lower oil due to sanctions being lifted might have some counter balance later since a new market has opened up for western countries. With a population twice as big as Canada and the bulk of it’s population in it’s item accumulation phase expect iPhone sales to increase in 2016….

  66. Further 2016 predictions: TSX plummets. Garth capitulates, sells his diversified portfolio and goes all in on gold and Vancouver condos.

  67. Predictions for 2016:

    Loonie touches $0.64 this year but finishes athe year above that mark.
    Oil finishes the year above $30.
    Johnson Street bridge further delayed and further cost over run.
    CRD gets lifeline extension on federal funding for sewage.
    “Info” returns to HHV contrite and admits she was all wrong, begs “Introvert” for forgiveness

    BOC 0.25%
    Sales 7800
    SFH Average 670,000

    I see the sales slowing down later this year

  68. The US is slowly heading back to their 60-year average of 1.5 million housing starts. They’re by far the largest market for BC forestry exports and have been for decades (44.6% of our exports in 2014 – latest data).

    The US is not “by far” the largest market , just the largest, i.e., 9% more than China and Japan combined and probably about equal to all Asia, and the latter markets have been the fastest growing until the recent slowdown.

    Anyhow, as the CFS chart I linked to earlier shows, lumber prices have followed a random walk around a central price of $375 per 1000 bf for the last 35 years, so we probably won’t see anything terrifically exciting in that sector of the BC economy during the next year or so. Anyhow, there aren’t many forest industry jobs (outside of Government) in Victoria, and province-wide, the industry accounts for only 2.5% of all jobs.

    BC Lumber exports 2015:

    https://www.for.gov.bc.ca/ftp/het/external/!publish/web/exports/Exports-Report-2015-10.pdf

  69. Sheridan… Great area, near Home Depot will come in handy… ~25k will make that place shagadelic.

    There’s no obvious relationship between the US construction industry and BC’s forest products exports.

    Obvious by looking @ US Housing Starts vs. Lumber Price…

    The US is slowly heading back to their 60-year average of 1.5 million housing starts. They’re by far the largest market for BC forestry exports and have been for decades (44.6% of our exports in 2014 – latest data).

  70. I can’t imagine why US housing starts wouldn’t climb back to at least their 60-year average of 1.5 million units in the coming years. That’s a lot of upward pressure on timber prices.

    There’s no obvious relationship between the US construction industry and BC’s forest products exports. Moreover, BC’s growth markets for forest products are in Asia where the great Chinese construction boom seems about to bust.

    http://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/selective-cuttings/50

    https://www.for.gov.bc.ca/ftp/het/external/!publish/web/economic-state/Economic-State-of-BC-Forest-Sector-2013.pdf

  71. The house of Saud has way less than 600 billion left in reserve

    Wikipedia gives Saudi reserves at $635 billion as of November 2015, i.e., two months ago.

    and spends like a drunken sailor. There’s zero chance they can keep this up.

    Well not for ever, no. But their reserves could make up for a large drop in oil price for a number of years during which they would continue to increase output, thereby compensating, at least in part, for the reduced price by increasing sales volume as existing wells elsewhere deplete and global demand grows.

    Quite likely low-cost OPEC producers can double their output over the next four or five years, thereby compensating for a 40-50% fall in price, assuming that they stabilize the price eventually at just below what is required to re-ignite the fracking boom, say $50.00.

  72. Some people wonder if they should have the appraisal done now or wait till the spring?

    When you talk with the appraiser you can ask for a “current market value” and a “prospective value”

    The current market value looks back over the last 90 days. The value hypothetically assumes that your property has been listed for the last 90 days along with other competing properties and this would be your property’s market value.

    The prospective value looks forward 90 days in order to estimate an anticipated selling price. The appraiser uses past historical trends to estimate what will likely happen to market prices in the near future. Prospective values are used by relocation companies when you are being transferred to another city.

    Banks, credit unions and other lenders can not use a prospective value to lend on. They can only lend on a current market value. (There are some exceptions entailing prolonged construction projects)

    And you can always have a current market value appraisal done now and then have the report updated at a future date, without the appraiser coming back to the property. The appraiser can update your file from their desk. (it has to be a reasonable period between the two dates – waiting a year isn’t reasonable)

    There are also retrospective appraisals where you need the property valued as at a date in the past such as 5 or 10 years ago. There generally used when you have a change in use of the property. You lived in a home for a while and then bought another one and rented the original home. Now you have tax issues that need the property valued at the date the property went from home ownership to a rental. Or if you’r significant other moved in with you years ago and now you need to determine a division of assets.

  73. An appraisal isn’t like a can of soup where one can is just the same as the next one.

    Most people are familiar with a “mortgage” appraisals. A mortgage appraisal is the lowest level of service that an appraiser provides. This is where student appraisers are trained because the reports are low liability and not highly scrutinized by the lender or third parties. They are cheap and dirty.

    The mortgage appraisal report is a standardized form used for lending providing a brief summary of the property and a single value at a specific point in time in support of the loan. They’re cheap because they are at the tail end of the loan process, as the lender knows the offer, the credit check has been done, the applicant has been approved for X amount of money and the building inspection is favorable. The lender has essentially decided that they are going to loan on the property before they order the appraisal. And that’s why most mortgage appraisals are crap because the lender isn’t wanting an appraisal they want to make the loan happen as fast as possible. The appraisal, at the end of the process, is just a speed bump.

    If YOU order an appraisal before making an offer, then you’re putting the appraisal at the start of the process. The appraiser in most cases is now responsible to you and not the lender.

    It is necessary for you to communicate that to the appraiser that you want him/her to consult with you. You’re looking for guidance from an unbiased source as to what range of value is reasonable for you to make an offer. That makes you an informed buyer where you know what is a steal of a deal, where most offers would be centered and if you really wanted to have this property what your maximum offer should be.

    And for those that regard the property to be had at any price – how much you’ll spend over market value to make your dream happen.

    Communicating with the appraiser is essential to getting a good report as the purpose and intent of the appraisal under normal or restricted marketing conditions has an impact. If you don’t communicate this to the appraiser, then you’re going to get a mortgage appraisal.

    Never order an appraisal online unless you want a mortgage appraisal.

  74. We islanders lest not forget our most important commodity to bottom back in October. There’s a lot of income and jobs connected to the forestry industry on the island.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24lumber

    I can’t imagine why US housing starts wouldn’t climb back to at least their 60-year average of 1.5 million units in the coming years. That’s a lot of upward pressure on timber prices.

  75. but not by 2020 or anywhere near

    If we continue getting the 10% gains you’re predicting this year (ave & Teranet), that should get us close for the core (ok, maybe mid 2020). I shouldn’t say it’s a slam dunk for MillMedCore by 2020… but if we get one Van-like year, it becomes very possible.

  76. I would get an appraisal, see if it’s in the ballpark you expect, and offer to buy now. Calculate out a full realtor commission and approx split the difference. Then get another appraisal if she wants to. Why wait for the market to appreciate?

  77. ~Strategy for Buying from Owner:

    I have decided to buy my rental house from my landlord. We’ve lived in 2 years & each year she has asked us if we want to buy it (said she would “give me a deal”) -Landlord is retired & she owns a few properties & likely wants her money out. It would be very affordable to us (& we’d plan to stay in it long-term so investment/market isn’t that important to us). I have enough of a downpayment that monthly cost of owning would be the same cost as renting. Our lease goes until the end of April.

    Definitely going to get it appraised. Figure sale price work out to a number somewhat short of appraised value (to consider in convenience factor + no realtor costs)

    I realize the appraisal may vary a bit if we get it done now (versus in the spring time)

    Since I’ve decided I want to buy it, should I:
    1. Get an appraisal & then make an offer? (an offer a few months before the lease is done)
    2. Wait until the end of the lease (as I’m assuming most owners would prefer to collect all the rent under the lease & then sell?) Also figure might be better if I wait until she brings it up? (Don’t want to seem too eager)

    Thoughts?

    Thanks!

  78. The house of Saud has way less than 600 billion left in reserve and spends like a drunken sailor. There’s zero chance they can keep this up. Also, their strategy is not working on the Iranians at all. The only thing that will work is a nuclear strike on their bomb making facilities.

  79. Million median is a slam dunk as is a million dollar can of Coke. Eventually we will get there, but not by 2020 or anywhere near

  80. Lol, do you need to make up stuff every sentence you write Hawk? I merely posted the following question, with a buy zone going to 69 cents. I always wait ‘til the end of my zones to buy because I know the market always pushes for the last drop 🙂

    Near a turn on the canuckbuck?

    Stay tuned Hawk, million median is a slam dunk.

  81. Agreed Dasmo, oil will “bottom” as Mike calls it , for a very long time. No use wasting time in stocks that will go nowhere for many years. You try to catch the meat, not the bottom.

    Funny Mike, three months ago it was a bottom too ? You said you were buying the loonie a couple weeks ago in the “buy zone” at 75. You said that was part of your whole theory, rising loonie, rising commodities and Victoria to a million in a couple of years. Change your story as you go but whatever.

    Western Canadian Select at $15. Ouchers. More bankruptcies to come. Same with natural gas heading back down.

  82. I also took my small profit in ABX and got out of gold too. I don’t believe the end is near… I do believe oil can stay low for a while so screw that. Rather wait and see what happens after Iran comes online. This may be the bottom but it might stay here a while. Plus it’s boring compared to electric self driving cars. I’m now in AMBA for every car will need eyes, GM (on top of my Tesla). I’m watching Nvidia… Of course I’m holding my Apple shares…

  83. Thanks for those Marko. I was curious about Transit.

    Well hawk, I commend you, at least you finally have the courage to share a ‘specific’ recent trade. And lol… commodity bottom, not “boom” (some examples…sugar, natgas, corn, and soon to be texas tea 🙂
    I put my money where my mouth is on the loonie yesterday… sold treasuries and already exchanged some of it back to CAD. Not enough risk/reward of it dropping to 60 at this point especially when I think hydrocarbons are starting to bottom.

  84. I already made my prediction on January 1st Mikey. Stock markets to tank, oil to continue down and housing to follow in the spring. So far the first two are bang on versus your commodity boom call in October and buy the loonie call a few weeks back about how it’s now in the “buy zone”. LOL

    My junior gold stock is doing fine thanks, still up nicely ,doesn’t trade much so I’m patient as the company develops and is mainly held by insiders. Pot stock took a bit of a hit but not too worried as I’m still up nicely.Small SPY short too I will add to but mainly insurance if all hell breaks loose. As I said before Mike I don’t have much cash in the market, it’s an extremely high risk enviroment to be investing in markets or over priced houses.

    I would never want my future major asset dependent on a bunch of HAM who could easily stop buying tomorrow.Then what? As CS mentioned why would they or any Americans keep buying here with another potential 15% loonie downfall? Not smart business ignoring reality.

  85. 3114 Woodburn Ave just went for $939,000. Previous purchase $777,000 in late 2012 as the market was bottoming out.

    896 Transit also sold yesterday for $1,725,000 (654k over assessment).

  86. A couple of recent court foreclosure sales.

    800 Killdonan Rd – Listed $529,900 – went to court at $535,000 accepted offer – bid up and sold at $575,200.

    868 Leslie – Listed at $441,000 – went to court at $441,000 accepted offer – bid up and sold at $505,000.

  87. Energy must be about to flip… consensus is $10 and dasmos everywhere are jumping ship. The little dollop I added on black and gooey Tuesday this week, is already looking slick. (I could’ve been a rapper)

    I think it’s time we heard some predictions from the chicken littles around here…

    And bk, you should ask Hawk how that “junior gold play” is working out that he mentioned at the top 7 trading days ago 😉

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gdxj

  88. The chicken littles (& Guardian article) have to realise even if there was another late90s-like Asian crisis centered around China, Vic/Van would see another tsunami of buying as Asians pull their money to safety. The last currency crisis there saw some East Asian stock markets dropped up to 75%, while NA markets didn’t even budge before continuing higher. Meanwhile Van prices went from ~300k to over 1600k since ‘98.

  89. It’s great when an article is a jumbled mess of contradictions.
    To paraphrase: “The savings rate is terrible! But that’s not because we’ve become self-indulgent, undisciplined wastrels. Just look at this poor single mother struggling because her cost of living doubled! Well it turns out she doesn’t buy any groceries and goes out for every meal. In conclusion: life is tough?”

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/savings-decline-canada-1.3403923

  90. Yep the Saudis are at war and have the cash reserves to last it out. they were going into deficit at $60 oil… Another 6 months at least. Gotta hurt Iran after sanctions are lifted. Also gotta finish off the competition not just hurt them. Canada is just collateral damage. I wish I had Iran sanctions being lifted on my radar. would have not bought any oil stocks when I did. At least I made money with the tanker play… In the mean time I pulled out of this area for now…

  91. There’s no way even the Saudis could sustain $10 oil.

    I don’t think anyone said Saudis would sustain $10 oil, if by sustain you mean hold forever.

    But $10 for a few months is quite sustainable for the Saudis, who have financial reserves of more than $600 billion. And $10 is still marginally above their cost of production.

    http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/crude-oils-total-cost-production-impacts-major-oil-producers/?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=feed&utm_content=graph-1&utm_campaign=crude-oils-total-cost-production-impacts-major-oil-producers#963019

    But since bitumen from the tar sands is already selling for less than $10, a further $18 decline in the price of conventional crude would likely leave the tar sands producers with no market at all.

    http://jugglingdynamite.com/2016/01/14/canadian-oil-under-10-how-low-can-it-go/

    The Saudi’s objective must be to maximize revenue over the long run. Therefore, their goal in driving the price down now must be to demonstrate to frackers and tar sands extractors just how easily their business model can be destroyed, thus discouraging future investment in high cost oil and leaving a greater market share to SA. This is not good news for Canada (or, therefore, for the C$), where future economic performance was to be enhanced by rapidly growing oil exports.

  92. How’s those Canadian oil stocks you bought a few weeks back doin killa? I thought that was the bottom ? Ouch.

  93. There’s no way even the Saudis could sustain $10 oil. They’d have to stop producing at that price. In other words that has to be absolute bottom and that is when I’ll buy buying the tsx heavily.

  94. “TSX at lowest point in 2.5 years, the exact same time the Victoria Real Estate Market bottomed out. This really can’t be pretty for Garth fans…..real estate prices going up and the stock market tanking.”

    What about the US stock market Marko ? It’s almost at the same level as 2 years ago too. I wouldn’t be smirking, if it blows through the current levels along with China you will have another credit crisis and the ability of people to borrow money for houses will go out the window like in 2008. Does Garth keep you awake at night ? Seems like it.

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/beware-great-2016-financial-crisis-warns-city-pessimist

  95. 2 of the best investments now are the same as 30 years ago… Vic RE & Exxon.

    Annual Sales: 7800
    SFH Annual Average Price: $705,000
    BoC rate Dec 2016: 0.50%
    Teranet June 2016: 156
    Teranet Dec 2016: 164

    T’is the year of the Hongcouverite invasion 🙂

  96. “My wife and I are looking to relocate back to Victoria this spring and are having trouble determining the potential effects of increased migration from oil patch (and other areas) and volatile market conditions.”

    Far more important than trying to time the market (near impossible) is the find the right property in my opinion.

  97. TSX at lowest point in 2.5 years, the exact same time the Victoria Real Estate Market bottomed out. This really can’t be pretty for Garth fans…..real estate prices going up and the stock market tanking.

  98. Thanks for the replies. I suppose my question was geared to specific properties versus the market as a whole. It seems that for someone who would come from the US to buy an investment property, they may stick to condos and townhomes in the center of the city. If we expect the USD to play a big factor in the market for Victoria real estate then would this market segment be the most attractive for prospective US buyers?

    I could be totally out to lunch on this!

  99. I think the exodus from the oil patch will put more pressure on Vic prices. If you don’t have a job in AB why live there if it’s not your home? The low dollar will add upward pressure because the cost of the debt is smaller. The volatile markets will also add pressure because people are taking cash out and it wan’t to go somewhere….

  100. Is it fraud when the person accepting the mortgage paper knows or reasonably believes the data is false but still lends on that information?

    Think of yourself as an underpaid and overworked employee of the bank. A broker brings you a mortgage that has the client’s income as a Nelson tree planter at $85,000 a year. Knowing that if you deny the applicant, the broker will simply take the paper across the street and get funding at a competing bank and might not bring you anymore business in the future, and that your boss requires you to meet monthly performance quotas.

    What do you do?

    Most of us would fund the mortgage and try to get promoted out of our current position for being a top performer. Then our replacement has to deal with any problems on this file in the future.

    So who has been defrauded?

    The Mortgagee?
    The Mortgager?
    The Listing Agent?
    The Selling Agent?
    The Broker?
    The Appraiser?
    The Mortgage Insurer?

    They all wanted the loan to go through so that the can have a pay check. So who was defrauded?

    The person that has been defrauded is that elderly pensioner living in One-Horse town, Nova Scotia that has her life savings in that bank and now has to pay higher bank fees due to higher mortgage defaults.

    It sucks having a conscious.

  101. How big of an impact do you think those factors will have on strata properties and 1st time home buyers.

    I’d say there’s a few factors that could come into play with a weaker dollar and financial market volatility.

    Positive for the market:
    – Victoria is more appealing to US and other foreign buyers due to the discount in USD.
    – Tourism industry should be strong this summer.
    – Financial market volatility might drive people into real estate investments instead.

    Negative for the market
    – Households will feel the pinch due to higher costs for anything imported, especially food.
    – Fixed rates might be going up as the US economy diverges with ours, and investors lose confidence in Canada.
    – Financial market volatility might reduce people’s assets and
    – General economic malaise may start impacting employment rate here, although so far it’s gone the other way.

  102. Damn those journalists with their headlines, hate how they tell reality. Markets continue to tank, global slowdown, even Walmart closing 269 stores, retail sales tank. Never mind though, we’re immune to the world on our little island.

    Dow Sinks 450 Points in Global Equity Rout as Crude Falls to $30

    Economic Growth in U.S. Cracking Under Strain of Global Slowdown

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-15/economic-growth-in-u-s-cracking-under-strain-of-global-slowdown

  103. First time poster, Long time listener. Many of the recent conversations I’ve been following between frequent posters have been regarding how the devaluation of the CAD and market volatility will be affecting home prices in Victoria.

    How big of an impact do you think those factors will have on strata properties and 1st time home buyers. Specifically, properties valued between $300-500K? I feel that a larger percentage of these buyers will be insulated from market conditions as they will have smaller down payments and limited diversity in their assets. On the other side, investors may be looking at these properties as a way out of markets.

    My wife and I are looking to relocate back to Victoria this spring and are having trouble determining the potential effects of increased migration from oil patch (and other areas) and volatile market conditions. The spring will have increased inventories; however, I also feel that there will be an increase in total prospective buyers.

    Since this is a prediction post, I thought it would be a good avenue to air my questions.

    Thanks in advance for any responses.

  104. In the housing market, I think we will see one more national announcement this year about regulation. Either something about mortgage broker fraud or a program to gather data about foreign ownership

  105. I think the loonie will bounce around 65 cents later in the year. Oil will go a couple dollars lower. Also Calgary and Edmonton will see a 10% decline in their real estate markets.

    The TSX will have another garbage year.

  106. Teranet revisions to mine….

    Annual Sales: 8,000
    SFH Annual Average Price: $665,000
    BoC rate Dec 2016: 0.5%
    Teranet June 2016: 153
    Teranet Dec 2016: 155

  107. I’m not on this board to promote myself or my business. I enjoy being anonymous as it allows me to more free with my thoughts and to express some new ideas. And at times poke fun at things. Some of which my colleagues in the industry would take exception to, and which could lead to a complaint that I am not promoting the industry in a professional manner.

    Yet, I am very easy to find by calling around. There aren’t many appraisers left, just ask for Jack.

  108. @Just Jack – Is there any way I could get in contact with you? I would value your expert consultation on a somewhat unique real estate situation and would of course look to compensate you appropriately.

  109. Victoria wasn’t the only city to see a significant rise in sale volumes. This was an across the country phenomenon for most of the bigger cities.

    Most lenders attributed the increase to the drop in the interest rate which allowed prices to rise until the advantage of the lower rate was diminished with higher prices.

    In Victoria, the biggest increase in prices was in the middle income household ($650,000 to $850,000 range) followed by an increase in the high end prices in excess of a million and more. A good portion of those high end prices were to non Victorians that paid at the high end and over market prices.

    Speaking with prospective buyers their biggest concern is that this low inventory will continue into the foreseeable future. These buyers have the money and they want to spend it on a home today as they fear prices will continue to rise and they won’t be able to buy into the market later. And these buyers have the same fears iterated on this blog from everyone wants to live here to the Chinese are coming.

    And that fear is irrationally reinforced every time house prices increase or when they are outbid by someone else.

    Price declines in the stock market are also making some prospective purchasers choose to sell their portfolios and buy a home.

    This is a market driven by fear. Bad decision are made out of fear and this will be true of most of the purchases made by today’s buyers.

    Inventory will rise again just as the sun will come up tomorrow – because it always has.

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