Market Update Jan 11

Time for a Monday market update from Marko Juras.

January 2015
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4
Unconditional Sales 103
New Listings 254
Active Listings 2379
Sales to New Listings
Sales Projection 435
Months of Inventory


January is when the springtime listings start pouring on while sales are still low, but sales are still running 25% ahead of last January, while listings lag.   When are the year over year improvements going to flatten out?   And how did we get so out of sync with the rest of Canada?   While our market molded, they roared.   Now we are taking off while Canada seems to be circling the drain.

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15 thoughts on “Market Update Jan 11

  1. 340 Gorge Rd for sale at 559,000. Sold Sept 2014 for 485,000. I went thru the house when it was last for sale and looking at the pictures, nothing has changed except they got rid of the juliet balcony on the living room window. $75k more in 16 mths? I guess we shall see…

  2. 405 – 728 Yates St sold for 356k brand new.One year later, it asks for 549k today. the agent did not even bother to take a new photos for the home…… this is telling something….

  3. For debt-to-income I think Canada will go from 165% to the 250%+ range (like Norway & other European countries) as millenials take on mortgage debt over the next 10 years. The average millennial or genY is age 26 this year, so debt levels should rise at least until they reach their first-time buying age of 36. Regardless, I think Vic will see more debtless cash buyers over the next decade than mortgage-seeking millenials. Otherwise Vic is near the same affordability as we were in the 80s… not that I’m saying I see the same 160% price gains like ‘85-’95, but a double by ~2023 wouldn’t surprise me at all.

  4. Interesting change in how foreclosures are to be handled in Victoria’s court. What we had before was a two step approach where bidders had a second chance to bid on the property with the bidders knowing the other prospective buyers’ original bids. That made the proceedings a little longer but transparent to all parties.

    The new idea is to have the bids sealed from the start. That puts the first person to make a bid at a disadvantage as the other bidders know what his offer was but he doesn’t know what their offers are. Although, he does have the opportunity to up his original offer as a sealed bid. This streamlines the process and makes the court proceeding quicker.

    Personally, I don’t think quicker is better. But we shall see how this works.

  5. It’s not the 80’s Mike, time to get out of the time warp. HELOC’s and personal debt levels of 165% didn’t exist back then. It’s a whole new ball game.

    Incase you missed it, the house huggers have been out in force for a long while now, especially on here. Every Victoria media story is a house hugger, who do you think pays their bills ?

    Asian daddy’s boys crashing luxury vehicles is nothing new. Making it into a car ad is what’s pathetic. Little pricks need a couple of weeks in jail for a wake up call.

  6. Neither the 1986 oil & loonie crash, ‘87 stock market crash, nor rising mtg rates stopped Victoria prices from gaining 160% between ‘85-’95. In fact, they helped Victoria gain.

    It’s been 10yrs up, then 4 down since 1971 (inflation mega-trend began). This stage of the up is always full of doom & gloom which helps propel us upwards. When the media switches from crash & burn stories every week (2013 – now) to people hugging their house with rainbows & unicorns in the yard, that’s when it’s time to sell (~2023ish).

  7. The old “pent up demand” line is coming to an end. Stock markets tanking again, calls for $10 oil, 59 cent loonie. Sooner or later the sheep wake up but by then it’s too late.

    Lots of industry pumping of course with 4% increase predictions while food inflation goes through the roof. Call it another year to go so they can dump ASAP.

    Canada’s housing boom could soon come to an end

  8. Our market isn’t “taking off”. Some locations, styles and types of properties have experienced gains. These sold properties have created wide variations in the medians and averages on a month to month basis which reflects a shallow market with too few listings.

  9. There are 39 houses for sale in Victoria City proper today. 40 if you include Vic West.

    Prices range from a low of $186,000 for a converted fish boat into a floating home to a high of $2,795,000 for a B&B Inn/Fawlty Towers in Rockland.

    The first “real” home is a house along Quadra described as land value only at $360,000 that last sold at $166,000 as land value only back in 1991.

    The most expensive is at 2.7 million for a Tudor ‘mansion” that last sold in 2011 at 2.9 million.

    For anyone looking to buy a house in the City between these extremes you’re just SOL as there are only 14 houses listed between $410,000 and $650,000. In a city with some 24,000 detached houses.

    My advise, pack your bags and spend your down payment on a trip to Australia. Drink lots of wine and dance the Tango on a white sand beach under the stars.

  10. “And how did we get so out of sync with the rest of Canada? While our market molded, they roared. Now we are taking off while Canada seems to be circling the drain.”

    It’s almost like no one really knows what is going to happen in the future!

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