First of the month monday market update courtesy of Marko Juras.
|Wk 1||Wk 2||Wk 3||Wk 4|
|Sales to New Listings||
|Months of Inventory||
No point in projecting sales yet given the severe slowdown around Christmas but I suspect we’ll see about 470 come the new year. A 99% sales/list ratio is pretty impressive though, could we break 100%?
Two posts ago I asked about what comment styles people prefer, and of the 8 people that expressed an opinion about it it seems at least 7 prefer the old linear system, so its now back with new comments on top. I still like the ability to reply to comments directly but without a significantly more advanced comment system it seems the simple comments will be easiest. We can make a few more improvements once we migrate to the new server.
I’ve also enabled Markdown for comments, which makes quoting people and comment styles in general easier.
To quote someone, put a > in front of what they said.
The automated stats page has received some updates. It now supports going back in time, so play around to see what it has to say about past dates. I’ll be writing an article about how this thing works at some point.
Another area is why it says the market is balanced, when we know that it is quite hot right now? Well I’ve been looking into that and there are several reasons:
- Using generally accepted definitions of how many months of inventory translates into a buyers, balanced, or sellers market does not take into account the season. 5.2 months of inventory in November does not mean the same thing as 5.2 in May. I’m unsure as of yet how to compensate for the seasonality of the data.
- I calculate Months of inventory by dividing the total sales into the active listings. While accurate for the entire market, this includes commercial sales and inventory, which is a totally different market and the resulting number doesn’t reflect the conditions in the residential market (this also explains the graph in the previous post). Problem is, the VREB doesn’t publish the residential inventory, so I have no easy way to get this data. I’ve asked them to add it to their publications so hopefully they do that in the future. In the meantime I’d be grateful if someone posted the residential inventory from July 2013 to present (I have the data before that).
For those who missed it in the comments, here’s a good article on cash back mortgages by a local broker.